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Why you shouldn’t rely on Rasmussen polls – politicalbetting.com
Why you shouldn’t rely on Rasmussen polls – politicalbetting.com
This is worth reading and good investigative journalism but also not surprising if you follow the polls.https://t.co/LwSRkmdkzE
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Unlike City and Arsenal.
No. Shit. Sherlock.
How the Tories may deal with two massive elections at the same time and a budget
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/08/15/how-the-tories-may-deal-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time-and-a-budget/
It is in effect a campaign contribution, which given their legal structure, is not permitted.
Someone last thread suggested Duffield could pull a Dick Taverne. I was surprised to discover that Taverne is still alive at 95. He sits as a LibDem peer. He famously retained his seat after being deselected by his local Labour Party for his pro-EEC views. He resigned from Parliament and won the subsequent by-election, and retained his seat at the next general election. That was the Feb 1974 election, but he then narrowly lost the seat in the Oct election.
He joined the SDP when the party was founded. He stood as the SDP candidate in the 1982 Peckham by-election and came a respectable second. He came third in Dulwich in the 1983 general election. In 1996, he was made a LibDem life peer. He last stood for election aged 78 in the 2006 local elections.
Presidential Polling Leads:
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +2
Georgia: Trump +1
Arizona: Trump +1
Wisconsin: Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
Michigan: Trump +3
- AtlasIntel -
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1840194530097647836
Earlier this year, the polling aggregator 538 dropped Rasmussen Reports from its averages and forecasts, saying that the firm couldn’t meet 538’s standards for objectivity and methodology. This drew a major backlash from right-wing media, especially after Rasmussen published a letter from 538 asking the polling firm questions about its procedures and biases.
"White House Watch - Rasmussen Reports®" https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_nov02
Mr. HYUFD, but was Rasmussen deemed objective/neutral back in 2020?
The fact Atlas have Harris ahead in North Carolina also suggests they aren't Trump biased by default even if they have Trump doing better in the rustbelt than most other pollsters
https://www.natesilver.net/p/polling-averages-shouldnt-be-political
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thuringia-lawmakers-pick-cdu-speaker-rejecting-afd/a-70352586
Are they a) reading pb.com and b) consequently trolling somebody here?
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_biden_49_trump_45
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania#:~:text=Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College.&text=Although Trump had won the,a similarly narrow 1.17% margin.
I picked that up when I was doing a comparison with Mansfield and Chesterfield with southern places with high profiles, which are both around 75k and just have University branches.
Apparently doing it for ‘women’
Next step abolish the license fee and let the BBC raise its own funds rather than extorting it from the public.
https://x.com/paullewismoney/status/1840265644652003486?s=61
Emphasises his working class parents and small town, Midlands values
I have little confidence any of them are the answer for the conservative party but then there are 5 years of labour ahead no matter what happens with Starmer and his love for freebies and cronyism
His interview seemed quite assured but he was not really tested.
Apparently he painted over a mural once. It was not mentioned.
Just go direct to the demographics. They are more up to date.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1840245821561856230
That’s three of the four main forward ammo dumps hit in the last fortnight, will be months of ammunition in each of them, now all cooked off and usuless to the Russians.
Your last sentence is spot on
Yes the prosecutions for licence fee evasion are disproportionally single mothers, who end up with a criminal record that has to be disclosed to potential employers.
However, let’s see what they replace it with, we don’t want the parking enforcement crowd to be set after people for TV licences either.
As for the "abolish the licence fee" thing, most of the alternatives look worse.
So many unknowns about the US election. Motivation within the core voting blocs, likelihood to vote of age cohorts, presence of ballot issues, variation in opportunity to vote…..
The best indicator for me is the results of recent elections, and they tend to point towards a more motivated Democratic vote.
Hence my belief that Harris/Walz will win what they won last time + NC + Another. A very resounding win.
There are reasons why the taxpayer isn't on the line for BBC funding - some good, some less so - and so some other way of 'extorting' the public has been found.
Once you are a subscription model, you are owned politically by those who choose to subscribe. (Nothing wrong with that - Speccie, NS, Economist all use that model). But that isn't right for 'public service broadcasting.
I almost never watch telly but have a licence, but BBC Radio/Sounds (R4, R3, World Service, R5, News) is worth way more than I pay.
He'll still probably win though.
Battered, discredited government beats implausible opposition. See 2005.
Kemi Badenoch, "People didn't understand what we stood for"
Trevor Philips, "The public knew exactly what you stood for.. Parties under Boris Johnson.. Market chaos under Liz Truss.. Record immigration figures under Rishi Sunak.. The public knew what you were about and that's why they didn't vote for you"
Kemi Badenoch, "I disagree"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1840298871685087591
It we be like parking when that was decriminalised.
As for the license fee. The alternatives look fine. The license fee made sense in the days of three or four channels. Now funding the BBC via a license fee does not. The license fee will go. It is when not if.
47% of Remainers voted Labour but just 19% of Leavers voted Labour.
37% of Leavers voted Tory but just 16% of Remainers.
17% of Remainers voted LD but just 7% of Leavers.
28% of Leavers voted Reform but just 3% of Remainers.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
Unless Tugendhat becomes Tory leader (who could pick up some Remainers from the LDs and Labour even if he loses a few more Leavers to Reform) I doubt that changes much
Journos better start asking Starmer what his position is on bailing out the BBC.
I rarely watch BBC TV and never listen to BBC radio now radio 2 decided it no longer wants to cater to my generation.
I don’t see why I should have to fund it, and more and more people feel the same and are cancelling their license fee.
Good.
It was the only sensible thing Nadine Dorries was suggesting in office.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13901757/Boris-johnson-covid-chinese-lab-memoir-wuhan-botched-experiment.html
Boris Johnson: I am no longer sure ‘medieval’ lockdowns beat Covid
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/28/boris-johnson-medieval-lockdowns-covid/ (£££)
Boris has done a book in which he compares himself to King Canute, also spelt Cnut.
Thanks for sharing.
The Wild West is Private Parking with its Parking Charge Notices designed to look like the council Penalty Charges enforced by private companies who send scary letters out to people extorting money from them. These would operate on supermarkets, shopping centres, hotels and other private land.
Plus, there are some truly divisive Republican Senators seeking re-election/standing as candidates in Florida, Arizona, Ohio and Texas. I am expecting some serious down-ballot harm from their standing. And up-ballot benefits to Harris.
That and trying to upstage the Tory party Conference.
The votes the Government lost due to Brexit had already been lost in 2017/2019.
I didn't hear one voter on the doorstep changing their vote due to Brexit.
I follow a Facebook group for tradesmen about nightmare customers. The sort of person who wants someone to come and paint a three bed house for 500 quid.
A fascinating thread, illustrating your point, is for tradesmen working for letting agents, and many won’t again, and how they either never get their money or are made to wait. In one case 300 days. Often sole traders who need the money to live.
What beat covid was herd immunity from everyone catching it, preferably after being vaccinated first.
Lockdowns were a way of buying time for vaccines to be developed and produced.
No, the partial and chopped down existing versions of this are not enough.
I reckon that enough money could be made selling BBC full content, around the world, to more than fund it.
Which would give real independence for the BBC.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/live-blog/rcna173120
North Carolina is the fulcrum of the flooding. Pretty devastating. I hope Biden’s administration has some good federal support on the way.
If she had such massive issues with Starmer and his leadership, his stance on trans rights, why on Earth did she stand under the Labour banner months ago for re-election?
She should do the honourable thing and have a by-election immediately.
I assume non payment will rise a bit, but I’m not convinced there are hordes of budding licence fee refuseniks who were just waiting for this moment.
You could then have your debate about its purpose. But separate the two arguments, one of which seems deliberately designed to make the national broadcaster unpopular.
Roseanne Barr: They eat babies. It’s true.
Tucker Carlson: so it's not just the dogs and cats?
Barr: Everybody thinks I’m crazy. I’m not crazy. They love the taste of human flesh & they drink human blood
Tucker: I think you have some authority on this
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1840035865852100959
https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.bsky.social/post/3l5bqtmnfza2y
"It’s also notable how deep the negativity is. A majority of pretty much every key social and political group has a negative opinion of the Tories, including 55% of over 65s and 56% of Leave voters, who would have been viewed as dependable Conservative voters just a few years ago. The sole exception are Conservative voters themselves, but even then, one in six (17%) have an unfavourable view of a party they voted for just three months ago.
Returning to power will require changing the minds of some of those who voted for other parties, only a small minority of whom are amenable to the Conservatives at the moment. Only a quarter of Reform UK voters (26%), one in nine Lib Dems (11%) and just 4% of Labour voters currently say they see the Tories positively."
We're moving again in January; Tora Bora (as we now call it) just doesn't feel safe anymore.
She’s the local MP for my vineyard and a number of others so at a stroke Labour’s vineyard count goes down catastrophically. Most British viticulture is in the hands of Lib Dems. It’s the first vineyard gains for independent.
From a quick eyeball Labour is losing mine plus Simpsons, Heppington, Chartham, Barnsole, Gorsley, and Tadpole, and several hundred hectares of Nyetimber vineyards plus a vast new planting on the Chartham downs that’s as yet unmarked.
Which is more painful?