Donald Trump and knocking up the voters – politicalbetting.com
Donald Trump and knocking up the voters – politicalbetting.com
Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump. https://t.co/XaXEq3bvts
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I set off for Lyme Regis first thing tomorrow
I've been rather doubting the sanity of my decision during the downpours of the last few days
https://labourlist.org/2017/07/corbyn-could-rule-on-starmers-second-job-at-brexit-law-firm/
https://www.google.com/search?client=tablet-android-google&sca_esv=acdc81b535f3728c&sca_upv=1&sxsrf=ADLYWIIFBmqEprw3XdGpP8IqoSxcEjJKoA:1727026801547&q=lamprey
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1837858059487453603
Because, as you may have noticed, the Trump-Vance Flying Squrrel Circus is the most incompetent POTUS campaign in living memory.
DJT and his MAGA-maggots are even MORE inept than Hillary Clinton & her campaign.
BTW (also FYI) difference between a MAGA-maniac and a MAGA-maggot, is that the former are true believers (or suspension-of-disbeliefers) while the latter are dedicated to MAGA-mania as a personal profit center.
NOTE that in 2004, the Cheney-Bush ticket won re-election by (at least) equalling Democratic voter turnout effort.
For example in Ohio, where Kerry campaign achieved it's turnout goals . . . AND it turned out also did from the other side.
Another 3 way title battle, I think. Arsenal or Liverpool to win it. City domination over.
This is very common with such “leaders” - the self belief is a necessary part of the circus act.
Is there anyone in Cabinet who has not had "donations" of tickets, clothes, events, party costs etc etc.?
Why is it always Alli?
Are there no other multi-millionaires offering stuff?
Is he collecting a kind of Top Trumps of Donations?
Sometimes I have read a book several times to engage with it from different angles or via different means, or perhaps as a group. It might apply to things from a different cultural background where there are layers to work through.
I've occasionally done that trying to approach older or newer spiritual or intellectual classics, or where a book is the hinge to understand a community. One interesting one from my younger adulthood was The Gravedigger File, which was a kind of Screwtape Letters for modernism.
I often reread sections, to remind myself, or refocus, or if there are threads to untangle or appreciate. Or if the author has distilled their worldview and poured themselves into the book, and I'm interested.
I listen repeatedly to "Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps .." by Doris Day, but that's because I know it as the Planning Permission Song, so it's a link I have (very) sometimes sent to Planning Officers when they are pfaffing or recalcitrant.
Of current political reads, I think I may return to sections Potholes and Pavements, by Laura Laker, because of its scope and integration of themes. By all accounts it has had some impact informing some areas of thinking of our new Transport Minister.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who's been an MP since 2015, says that she had to accept donations of expensive clothing from a wealthy party donor because "I was from a very working class background" #bbclaurak
https://x.com/ripx4nutmeg/status/1837778927160324400
They do it every rally now. It’s just the same tired old garbage every speech for 8 years. After you heard the Hannibal Lecter, Al Capone, windmills, sharks, and electric boat motor stories 50 times it’s starts to get old. Nobody knows that better than me.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1837626928053788995
If he is smart, he won’t have asked for anything.
I do not support either City or Arsenal, but certainly Arsenal were excellent in the first half but their second half display, despite being down to 10, of stonewalling and theatrical play acting with general time wasting got exactly what it deserved
And as for your comment on the referee that is simply a bitter response to the result
The title will between City - Arsenal, and possibly Liverpool, but I still think City will make it 5 titles in a row but what happens post the investigation into their alleged rule breaking who knows that the runners up to City over the last 10 years or so may suddenly find they are awarded the trophy for that year by default
Wasn't Big Ange last month filmed in a very expensive night club in Ibiza? Obviously only just making ends meet so needs a frock from the charity shop for her night out.
A film, you get it or you don't. There are some where you see new things on each rewatch, but that's an exception, I think.
While Sue Gray seems about popular as syphillis, and her much heralded “100-day plan” presumably exists only in her imagination.
The (soft-left) FT has yet another article about wealthy taxpayers fleeing the UK. Ho-hum.
This whole 'freebiegate' has made labour look as bad as the conserrvatives in the public eyes and who would have thought Starmer popularity would collapse below Sunak in just a few weeks
The interviews with Rayner and Philipson on todays morning media shows were more car crashes and now the Unions are to put forward a motion to reinstate WFA to the floor of conference on the same day Reeves gives her keynote speech
How on earth has labour got into this mess and more importantly for them the danger is it will define them in the eyes of the public and reaffirmn the view they are all the same
Who goes on national tv and describes what was obviously some kind of political gathering (involving front benchers and trade unionists) as her “birthday party”, even if turning 40 was the ostensible reason for the gathering?
I wonder what happened to the last senior politician that attended a party and apparently didnt even have any cake ?
Not much comment on the Brandenburg State Election result I see?
Excellent result for the SPD who, having looked down and out, rallied and have just outpolled AfD - the CDU has had a poor night finishing fourth behind the Bundris Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).
The latest estimate (as of 7pm BST):
SPD 30.7% (+4.5) 32 seats
AfD 29.6% (+6.1) 30 seats
BSW: 13.1% (+13.1) 14 seats
CDU 12.1% (-3.5) 12 seats
Greens 4.6% (-6.2) 0 seats
Linke 2.9% (-7,8) 0 seats
The SPD/CDU coalition has 44 seats which should be enough for the governing coalition to carry on.
Changes from the last Landtag election.
It's a personal triumph for the SPD leader Minister-President Dietmar Woidke who basically turned the election into a straight choice - him or AfD and there was clear tactical voting to shore up the SPD numbers.
It may also be the BSW will join what is being called a "blackberry coalition" with the CDU and the SPD.
It will be interesting to see if the idea of a blackberry coalition gets any traction at Federal level with the Bundestag elections barely a year away.
The latest Federal opinion poll had the Union on 32%, AfD on 20%, SPD on 15% and both Greens and BSW on 10% making a CDU/SPD coalition a possibility.
Seattle Times - Former WA Gov. Dan Evans dies at 98
SSI - Will spare you the actual obituary, which is hagiography and NOT especially insightful.
Wiki bio is better
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_J._Evans
The term "Dan Evans Republican" means the same thing in WA State as "Nelson Rockefeller Republican" used to mean nationally = moderate GOPers. Basically extinct today, having morped into Democrats (or Dem-leaning Independents) over the last generation.
Just to demonstrate appeal of Dan Evans for WA voters, in 1964 he was elected to his first of three terms as Gov (first ever gubernatorial hat trick in state history), he won by margin of over 150k votes over the Democratic incumbent . . . on same statewide ballot that saw LBJ beat AuH2O by nearly 310k.
One heck of a cross-over vote!
Gov. Evans then went on to do many positive things for education, transportation, the environment, etc. etc. in WA State. Including taking back the state Republican Party from the John Birchers (proto MAGA-maniacs) who managed to capture it during the Goldwater 1964 primary campaign.
Dan Evans is today best known, especially to younger generation plus newcomers, as the namesake of the University of Washington's Dan Evans School of Public Policy.
Will be interested to see if Jim Miller, a native Washingtonian, has any thoughts on the passing of Dan The Man - hope so!
I still can't believe the William Roche case. Mind blowing that got to court. So many red flags, wrong car, wrong house, provable on set when accusation occurred, one of the accusations, the police let the husband sit in and then talk over the woman making the claims.
https://wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/12/500/20240922/landtagswahl_land/ergebnisse.html
Has he been in Private Eye very often?
Which (for some reason) reminds me, that the late Cecil Underwood of West Virginia, was both the youngest governor in the history of the great Mountain State (1957-61) as well as the OLDEST gov (1997-2001).
It’s not as if any other party does anything different.
But the fact they all come from Lord Alli, who was given a Downing Street pass by the woman whose son - now MP for Beckenham and Penge - received 10k for campaigning expenses…
And then to have Starmer, Reeves, Rayner and Philippson each do a media round and utterly fail to come up with a coherent story beggars belief.
As bone fide Americans, do you think I was even close?
I think back to Cameron dealt with expenses, he came out and got the tone right. Now that was far far worse, but he managed to insulate himself somewhat by getting out the gate with the correct response.
Are we seriously expecting each MP who attended Taylor Swift on a ticket provided to pay the full cost of the ticket - let's ask Prince William to stump up for his ticket while we're about it?
Let's not forget the grift of the previous administration - should we ask someone about the money shelled out on PPE contracts?
The presenter was apparently shocker when the cabinet minister said, fine, say that. But I will then recount the time you *took* cocaine in front of me.
The momentum is with her.
The polls are a lagging indicator.
The Dems ground game is much better.
Young women are motivated (Taylor Swift)
There will be a herd effect in swing states among the undecided as it becomes clear that Kamala is the winner.
You can get 25 on 360+ ECs on Betfair. Unlikely but 360+ is not unusual.
Nixon 520 in 1972
Reagan 489 in 1980 and 535 in 1984
Bush 426 in 1988
Clinton 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996
Obama 365 in 2008
It's not a normal distribution. When it blows, it blows. And it's gonna blow!
My keyboard is too debounced.
Nobody forgets the sins of the previous administrations, the Ecclestone affair and onwards - it doesn’t make the cheap shitshow that is current somehow ok. In fact the tragic cheapness of it is worse - bought for clothes, football matches and pop concerts. It wouldn’t be an issue if they hadn’t been such pious, holier than though pricks about Boris, Covid parties, Rishi in helicopters, etc.
I feel a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of dots suddenly cried out in terror "join us together."
Sure, Trump's audience wants the greatest hits but not a tribute band.
https://x.com/europeelects/status/1837925337302229310
Also note the political shift of most of US South from Democratic > Republican political identification and allegiance in the half-century since the Civil RIghts Revolution. PLUS shift of the key partisan fault line, from economic perspectives and policy (for example, business versus labor) to social perspectives and policies (for example, anti-abortion versus pro-choice).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvglm0rjy2go
When I was very young, I asked my father if there was such a thing as an Immoral Philosopher. Yes, he said, Bertrand Russell was a pioneer in that field.
If it had been a couple of tickets to Taylor Swift from Ms Swift management company and England footy tickets from the FA nobody would be excited by it.
Quite unlike the situation in Uncle Tomsky's neck of the woods!
So it would never occur to him to ask for things, and it would seem stupid to offer money to a billionaire.
https://x.com/ToryFibs/status/1837767319981867349
LBJ ensured his Great Society programmes worked for rural whites as much as inner city African Americans, but it didn't do the Dems much good.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/22/oscar-wildes-family-criticise-hideous-new-statue-of-writer/
Has the craft of sculpting been lost? Seem regular occurrence now they are bloody awful representations.
I'm sure there will be a walk-on (followed by rapid walk-off) part for the Leeanderthal Man.
What is all that about by the way, is it a suppressed national culture that can only escape when you get all the Russian men together away from the women?
Edit to add, they were called Galleries not Dormitories. Got to get the details right.
First, what Starmer and Reeves said before the election about the way they would comport themselves in Government has been seriously compromised. I'm much less bothered about trips to Doncaster, Taylor Swift concert tickets or even clothes. Occasionally, people do something without expecting anything in return - we all do that. The problem only starts when there is even a suspicion any largesse provided is perceived as opening a door to undue influence. I don't think it does in this instance but if you are going to promise to be "clean" in office, this has to be the case from day one.
Second, the juxtaposition of Cabinet Ministers enjoying themselves at concerts and getting nice clothes at a time when many pensioners are going to lose £250 of winter fuel allowance looks terrible. Now, clearly, some of the 12.5 million pensioners don't need the money and that's been well publicised but many do and apart from those who have gone to apply for Pension Credit to which they were entitled (and that's perhaps the only positive), the cliff edge nature of the means testing means some pensioners will, for having two or three quid too much, lose the whole £250. That's ridiculous and needs to be sorted via some form of tapering to ensure it's not such a severe loss for those whose income puts them close to the limit.
I agree this has been a disappointing start at best for the new Government but incoming Governments often find it's much easier in the comfy chairs of Opposition than in Government itself especially after a long period of Opposition when so few have had Ministerial experience. That doesn't excuse the "optics" of all of this and it sets a tone which isn't going to be easy to change in the short term.
When I was at UCL, a Spanish artist nearly got kicked out of the Slade art school because of her love for doing photorealistic painting.