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SystemSystem Posts: 12,603
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border

The chart above is from yesterday’s IoS/S Mirror poll by ComRes and has the Tories just 1% ahead in England. That is ten points short of what the blues got at the last election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited December 2014
    Busts the myth that England is in love with the Tories. It ain't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,066
    edited December 2014
    If only pollsters would stop lumping the South West with Wales and we could compare it to other pollsters.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Button says Dec13. that confused me for a moment as I thought a further option was missing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Actually, @MikeSmithson it would be interesting to know what the polls were saying in Dec 13 for England given that Scotland was still going Labour at that point. Has their been a dramatic swing Labourwards in just the last year alone?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Busts the myth that England is in love with the Tories. It ain't.

    Maybe

    Then again, you could argue Tories plus UKIP equals 55%.

    And then you see why ed is desperate to head off an English parliament.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Isam FPT

    Comparing a humanist wedding with a serious crime such as murder is stretching a point to say the least.

    King Cole

    Indeed the rules don't apply to Scotland where wedding locations have been liberalised for more than a decade (and the sky hasn't fallen in AFAIK)
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    OldKingCole said:


    It was in Scotland, so diffrent rules might apply.

    Very different, humanist celebrants can officiate legally binding weddings in Scotland, as opposed to England where you can have a humanist ceremony but then you have to pop down the registry office for the actual legally binding wedding service. They are the third most popular wedding type after Church of Scotland and Civil service, beating out Catholic weddings by over 1000 a year in Scotland.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,408
    edited December 2014
    Bobajob_ said:

    Isam FPT

    Comparing a humanist wedding with a serious crime such as murder is stretching a point to say the least.

    King Cole

    Indeed the rules don't apply to Scotland where wedding locations have been liberalised for more than a decade (and the sky hasn't fallen in AFAIK)

    Thanks. I wait to see what sort of wedding her sister picks, then. That’ll be in England.
    (Or, since they’re close to the border, just possibly in Wales!)
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Only one poll that is from Comres and is an online poll.

    What do the other polls say? How many are needed for them to be of value?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics

    Next UKIP leader odds:

    2 @DouglasCarswell
    5 @paulnuttallukip
    5 @DianeJamesMEP
    6 @Steven_Woolfe
    8 @oflynnmep
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Not sure I understand your '10 points short ' message Mike. In 2010 Dave got a little north of 39%, now he's looking at a little north of 35%. Is that not 4% short +/-? If 4% of the 19% UKIP vote 'comes home' (as, for example, many of those who voted for Reckless said they would) then Dave is back at 2010. That leaves the really interesting and election deciding factor being what happens to the Labour vote. If they get 34% then EICIPM.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,408
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    OldKingCole said:


    It was in Scotland, so diffrent rules might apply.

    Very different, humanist celebrants can officiate legally binding weddings in Scotland, as opposed to England where you can have a humanist ceremony but then you have to pop down the registry office for the actual legally binding wedding service. They are the third most popular wedding type after Church of Scotland and Civil service, beating out Catholic weddings by over 1000 a year in Scotland.
    The place where they were married was, as I said licensed. It was an excellent, and indeed moving, service. Much better, for example than a Hindu wedding I’ve attended.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    edited December 2014
    Bobajob_ said:

    Isam FPT

    Comparing a humanist wedding with a serious crime such as murder is stretching a point to say the least.

    King Cole

    Indeed the rules don't apply to Scotland where wedding locations have been liberalised for more than a decade (and the sky hasn't fallen in AFAIK)

    I am not stretching any point, I am saying that it is wrong to think that opponents of certain things would be rest easy by allowing them to go on without their participation or that..

    You may have a different moral view to theirs, but just telling them to ignore it or mocking and insulting them isn't the recipe for a cohesive society
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    That 19.1% for UKIP must be hurting the Conservatives. No wonder some of their most ardent supporters on here are so grumpy. The problem is that the Cameron clique has no idea of how to get its lost voters back and shows no sign of developing one. Vote UKIP and get Labour will work for some but not very many, I think.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2014
    OldKingCole said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    OldKingCole said:


    It was in Scotland, so diffrent rules might apply.

    Very different, humanist celebrants can officiate legally binding weddings in Scotland, as opposed to England where you can have a humanist ceremony but then you have to pop down the registry office for the actual legally binding wedding service. They are the third most popular wedding type after Church of Scotland and Civil service, beating out Catholic weddings by over 1000 a year in Scotland.
    The place where they were married was, as I said licensed. It was an excellent, and indeed moving, service. Much better, for example than a Hindu wedding I’ve attended.
    As someone who has been to a bunch of religious and humanist weddings (and had a Humanist wedding myself) I would say the big advantage of Humanist weddings is that there is no set form (barring the minuscule amount of legal language around the "I do"s) so the ceremony can be completely custom crafted around the couple and those attending.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    SeanT said:

    BenM said:

    Busts the myth that England is in love with the Tories. It ain't.

    Er, your party is the only Opposition party to a widely disliked Coalition, forcing through very unpopular cuts, at a time of historically stagnant living standards. At the same time, the right in England is, uniquely and seriously split: check the 19 points for UKIP. How many of them might return to the Tories in 2015?

    And despite all this the Tories are STILL ahead of you.

    Also you are now the second party in Scotland, way behind the SNP, and you don't even exist in Northern Ireland.

    The only part of the UK where Labour is leading is Wales, and even there you're in trouble as the Welsh education system follows the Welsh health system down the toilet and into the River Taff.

    The fact you are taking comfort from this poll shows the increasing direness of Labour's position.
    Labour: 2nd in England (1st in some polls), 2nd in Scotland, 1st in Wales.

    Tories: Marginally 1st in England (2nd in some polls), 3rd in Scotland, poor 2nd in Wales.

    The Tories increasingly speak for a shrinking area of provincial southern England (which is why they desperately wanted to gerrymander the seats). No prospect of that changing before May.

    Good to see you acknowledge how monumentally awful this administration as been.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    kjohnw said:

    If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.

    ...and if a quarter vote Labour then they wont be stuffed

    Why do you only re allocate the bit of UKIP that used to vote Tory?
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Sam

    Again a poor example as to not pay such taxes would be to break the law. It is perfectly legal to oppose humanist weddings and refuse to attend them
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited December 2014
    I think you want "Dec14" on the graph, Mike...

    Obviously the corollary of the SNP surge is that Labour are effectively 1-2 points "better off" in England. So that raises the swingback bar a touch. But for betting purposes the SNP surge makes Con most seats at odds-against very attractive.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The Tories increasingly speak for a shrinking area of provincial southern England (which is why they desperately wanted to gerrymander the seats). ''

    A gross mis representation of what is happening.

    It is the population of labour seats that is dropping (largely because they are poor areas people want to get out of if they possibly can, despite vast subsidies).

    The population of conservative constituencies is exploding, hence the debate about constituency size equalisation.

    But hey, don;t let the truth get in the way of a good rant.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    edited December 2014
    Bobajob_ said:

    Sam

    Again a poor example as to not pay such taxes would be to break the law. It is perfectly legal to oppose humanist weddings and refuse to attend them

    It was a poor example because the person morally opposed to high tax would actually probably quite like to not pay them and ignore the rest of the country that does,that's why I changed it

    Why don't you use the reply function?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    "the Tories have massive struggle south of the border"
    Its only a 5.5% swing with Labour's vote inevitably heading downwards and a few % of UKIP to attract back.. As I do not regard most UKIP voters as fruitcakes (smile), then getting back to the GE 2010 position seems doable. Add in 10+ gains from the LDs and the Cons can concievably finish a bit stronger than GE2010.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited December 2014
    @kjohnw

    'If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.'

    Can't believe the Lib Dems will only poll 8% next May,if 3-5% of red Lib Dems return home it's the end of Ed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,408
    edited December 2014
    Alistair said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    OldKingCole said:


    It was in Scotland, so diffrent rules might apply.

    Very different, humanist celebrants can officiate legally binding weddings in Scotland, as opposed to England where you can have a humanist ceremony but then you have to pop down the registry office for the actual legally binding wedding service. They are the third most popular wedding type after Church of Scotland and Civil service, beating out Catholic weddings by over 1000 a year in Scotland.
    The place where they were married was, as I said licensed. It was an excellent, and indeed moving, service. Much better, for example than a Hindu wedding I’ve attended.
    As someone who has been to a bunch of religious and humanist weddings (and had a Humanist wedding myself) I would say the big advantage of Humanist weddings is that there is no set form (barring the minuscule amount of legal language around the "I do"s) so the ceremony can be completely custom crafted around the couple and those attending.
    The form of this one was arranged by the bride. Where she got all her ideas from, I don’t know.

    A slightly odd feature was that both the familes came from SE England, and sounded like it, although the grooms had been in Scotland for many years, but all the friends of the young couple sounded Scots.
    The function itself was in Linlithgow so all those around sounded Scots, too!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anyone who gets the Red Box email may want to paste in an exert of the piece about SLAB. It's coruscating and enlightening insider view of where Labour has gone badly wrong.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarkHopkins said:

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics

    Next UKIP leader odds:

    2 @DouglasCarswell
    5 @paulnuttallukip
    5 @DianeJamesMEP
    6 @Steven_Woolfe
    8 @oflynnmep

    Interesting market. Is it still one-member-one-vote? From the outside, Suzanne Evans at 12/1 might be worth a bet, but I wouldn't know about the internal dynamics.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Whoever would've thought we'd end up with Labour doing better in England than Scotland.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, but if Miliband wins Labour will **** up England's devolution and sell us down the river to the EU at the first opportunity [I'm aware the Conservatives have been poor on this, but far less so than Brown's treacherous signing of the Lisbon Treaty].
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited December 2014
    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.

    ...and if a quarter vote Labour then they wont be stuffed

    Why do you only re allocate the bit of UKIP that used to vote Tory?
    well if UKIP is two thirds ex tory and one third ex labour I think with tweets like we saw in Rochester and todays leaking of internal Labour memos saying to be quiet about immigration, then I doubt ukip will leak back to labour by a quarter, as the main reason labour WWC voters are turning to UKIP is about immigration. Plus 3 months of weirdo Ed on the telly will make most undecided minds plunge for the blues for the sake of their grandchildrens futures!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/14/greece-election-eu-finance-chief-athens-grexit-fears

    Well worth keeping an eye on.

    Events dear boy, events.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics

    Next UKIP leader odds:

    2 @DouglasCarswell
    5 @paulnuttallukip
    5 @DianeJamesMEP
    6 @Steven_Woolfe
    8 @oflynnmep

    Interesting market. Is it still one-member-one-vote? From the outside, Suzanne Evans at 12/1 might be worth a bet, but I wouldn't know about the internal dynamics.
    Presuming Farage steps down during the next Parliament (which he's been making noises about) it's hard to see a non-MP getting it. The fight will be Libertarians v Reactionary wings of the party, Carswell would be a big coup for the former - if he even wants it, he's always struck me as preferring being influential on the fringes.

    Nuttall probably deserves it, and would cement the working class appeal, not sure he'll be a MP come 2015 though. Same with James, Woolfe, and O'Flynn. Of course, UKIP might just pick an MEP even if they have a handful of MPs.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    kjohnw said:

    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.

    ...and if a quarter vote Labour then they wont be stuffed

    Why do you only re allocate the bit of UKIP that used to vote Tory?
    well if UKIP is two thirds ex tory and one third ex labour I think with tweets like we saw in Rochester and todays leaking of internal Labour memos saying to be quiet about immigration, then I doubt ukip will leak back to labour by a quarter, as the main reason labour WWC voters are turning to UKIP is about immigration. Plus 3 months of weirdo Ed on the telly will make most undecided minds plunge for the blues for the sake of their grandchildrens futures!
    Hmm a difficult one for me to judge. Personally as an ex Labour voter I can say categorically there is less than 1% chance of me voting for them, but I cant speak for others

    From the outside looking in though, I cant see why ex Tories who say they are now voting UKIP would go back to Cameron.. he was the first Tory leader to become PM at a GE for 18 years.. doesn't the fact that even that is not enough to stop people leaving make you think they might not come back?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Mr. Taffys, cheers for that link.

    It's almost as if the eurozone's a monumentally stupid idea.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,066
    This could make life simpler or more interesting

    @patrickwintour RT @britainelects: Leaders of SNP, PC and Green Party are willing to coordinate coalition negotiations with Labour - seems important ?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Yes, if you vote ukip you will get Ed!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,408
    edited December 2014
    Don’t know if this has been posted before but just had a flick at the BBC site and saw (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30475232) that the guy who regularly travelled with a ticket last year has been banned for life from woirking in the City by the FCA.

    Straining at a gnat and swallowing a camel come to mind! Even if he did do it for ages!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It's almost as if the eurozone's a monumentally stupid idea.

    You're welcome. I'm just wondering what the implications here might be if the proof it's a monumentally stupid idea emerges early next year.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is rather good on WWI - and that Christmas story linkis.com/bbc.co.uk/guides/y4Ro4
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Just had the daughter of my next door neighbour pop round and she was in urgent need of a restorative. Her Dad has been in a nursing home since April and is now completely ga-ga, but not officially so. He slid down the slope very quickly and never signed power of attorney and has no legal wife. The complications and bills are enormous. The house is now unoccupied and so uninsured, but the insurance company will not accept instructions from the family; Motability will not come and collect the car with out instructions from the chap himself, instructions which he cannot give; the house cannot be rented or sold but the £4k per month bill from the nursing home continue to arrive (he put the account in his daughter's name); the banks just refuse to talk to her. And so on and so forth, no company or agency will accept any instructions from the family or even discuss the issues ("Data Protection, innit"). In desperation the family have gone to the lawyers, of course everything will get sorted out we just need to ... at a cost of £200 per hour plus court and expert fees, but of course these things take time and Christmas is coming.

    A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,066
    Five more hostages escape
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Comres underscored the Tories by 3.9% at the Euros.

    The biggest underscore of any pollster.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.

    ...and if a quarter vote Labour then they wont be stuffed

    Why do you only re allocate the bit of UKIP that used to vote Tory?
    well if UKIP is two thirds ex tory and one third ex labour I think with tweets like we saw in Rochester and todays leaking of internal Labour memos saying to be quiet about immigration, then I doubt ukip will leak back to labour by a quarter, as the main reason labour WWC voters are turning to UKIP is about immigration. Plus 3 months of weirdo Ed on the telly will make most undecided minds plunge for the blues for the sake of their grandchildrens futures!
    Hmm a difficult one for me to judge. Personally as an ex Labour voter I can say categorically there is less than 1% chance of me voting for them, but I cant speak for others

    From the outside looking in though, I cant see why ex Tories who say they are now voting UKIP would go back to Cameron.. he was the first Tory leader to become PM at a GE for 18 years.. doesn't the fact that even that is not enough to stop people leaving make you think they might not come back?
    I think when it gets to actually putting the cross on the ballot, it comes down to choosing the lesser of two evils for most people, the safest pair of hands for the economy, and lets face it despite what OGH says about FPTP being about electing an individual MP rather than a party (which is true technically) with the UK media it is basically about the ability and personality of the party leaders, and Cameron is still seen as a better leader than any of the competition. So I think on the day the Tories will just about scrape through, probably in a coalition, depending on how much of a cock up EdM makes of the campaign, could even get a small majority
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2014
    HurstLlama said:


    A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.

    I presume the pair that had the wild party had already been down the registry office to have a civil ceremony.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,066
    edited December 2014
    Looks like the police have gone it and weapons fire is being exchanged by the sounds of it.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Alistair said:

    HurstLlama said:


    A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.

    I presume the pair that had the wild party had already been down the registry office to have a civil ceremony.
    I don't know, ask BobaJob it was his example.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,408
    edited December 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    Just had the daughter of my next door neighbour pop round and she was in urgent need of a restorative. Her Dad has been in a nursing home since April and is now completely ga-ga, but not officially so. He slid down the slope very quickly and never signed power of attorney and has no legal wife. The complications and bills are enormous. The house is now unoccupied and so uninsured, but the insurance company will not accept instructions from the family; Motability will not come and collect the car with out instructions from the chap himself, instructions which he cannot give; the house cannot be rented or sold but the £4k per month bill from the nursing home continue to arrive (he put the account in his daughter's name); the banks just refuse to talk to her. And so on and so forth, no company or agency will accept any instructions from the family or even discuss the issues ("Data Protection, innit"). In desperation the family have gone to the lawyers, of course everything will get sorted out we just need to ... at a cost of £200 per hour plus court and expert fees, but of course these things take time and Christmas is coming.

    A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.

    Mr Llama, when we had major carehome problems a few years ago we found an excellent firm of solicitors in South Wales who specialise, inter alia, in such matters....... If you want the name, PM me. Given your neighbours problems., it could be that the Care Home are not justified in making the charges; it should be the responsibility of the NHS.

    Oh, and when we retired, my wife and I had drawn up and registered, appropriate Powers of Attorney. Each other, plus one of our children.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Mr. Llama, my sympathies to the lady in question.

    The law needs serious reform here, and it'll be tricky to get right, but such cases will become more common.

    My father had power of attorney for his father (who had Alzheimer's) but even so found things difficult (often with banks and the like).
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Hurst, Alistair
    Yes - they had snuck down there a few days before and tried not to mention that they were technically already married. Many people are ignorant of the law so are unaware that in England humanists can't marry people.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Off topic: Are we not expecting to see some EVFEL legislation forthcoming this week?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.

    ...and if a quarter vote Labour then they wont be stuffed

    Why do you only re allocate the bit of UKIP that used to vote Tory?
    well if UKIP is two thirds ex tory and one third ex labour I think with tweets like we saw in Rochester and todays leaking of internal Labour memos saying to be quiet about immigration, then I doubt ukip will leak back to labour by a quarter, as the main reason labour WWC voters are turning to UKIP is about immigration. Plus 3 months of weirdo Ed on the telly will make most undecided minds plunge for the blues for the sake of their grandchildrens futures!
    Hmm a difficult one for me to judge. Personally as an ex Labour voter I can say categorically there is less than 1% chance of me voting for them, but I cant speak for others

    From the outside looking in though, I cant see why ex Tories who say they are now voting UKIP would go back to Cameron.. he was the first Tory leader to become PM at a GE for 18 years.. doesn't the fact that even that is not enough to stop people leaving make you think they might not come back?
    They will be wooed back in by the monumental charm and intellect displayed by the pbtories here every day.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could make life simpler or more interesting

    @patrickwintour RT @britainelects: Leaders of SNP, PC and Green Party are willing to coordinate coalition negotiations with Labour - seems important ?

    A further indication that we will see either a left wing coalition or a right wing one next May unless one group of voters unifies behind a single candidate on their side of the political spectrum.

    Does right wing England (55+%) want Miliband plus a Scot, a Welshman and an Australian?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    Local election results show the Tories doing better than average in a lot of English marginals like Gloucester, Worcester, Tamworth, Burton, Stafford, Swindon North, Swindon South, Loughborough, Blackpool North.

    Maybe the big swing to Labour is concentrated in metropolitan areas where it doesn't matter so much,
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,386
    I wonder how much harder it is for authorities to conduct raids of hostage situations now that with 24hr news streaming pictures, twitter, vine, etc.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    HurstLlama said:

    Just had the daughter of my next door neighbour pop round and she was in urgent need of a restorative. Her Dad has been in a nursing home since April and is now completely ga-ga, but not officially so. He slid down the slope very quickly and never signed power of attorney and has no legal wife. The complications and bills are enormous. The house is now unoccupied and so uninsured, but the insurance company will not accept instructions from the family; Motability will not come and collect the car with out instructions from the chap himself, instructions which he cannot give; the house cannot be rented or sold but the £4k per month bill from the nursing home continue to arrive (he put the account in his daughter's name); the banks just refuse to talk to her. And so on and so forth, no company or agency will accept any instructions from the family or even discuss the issues ("Data Protection, innit"). In desperation the family have gone to the lawyers, of course everything will get sorted out we just need to ... at a cost of £200 per hour plus court and expert fees, but of course these things take time and Christmas is coming.

    A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.

    https://www.gov.uk/make-decisions-for-someone
    ''Help with a specific decision
    Ask the Court of Protection to make a one-off decision about:
    emergency medical treatment for someone
    non-urgent issues regarding someone’s care, eg where they should live or the sale of property''

    I'm guessing there are other things as well. But the govt (as a govt not a political party) does look to give advice and reflect that there are these issues.

    http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/england/relationships_e/relationships_looking_after_people_e/managing_affairs_for_someone_else.htm#h_who_can_make_decisions_when_someone_loses_mental_capacity_and_theres_no_power_of_attorney

    ''It is possible to apply to the Court of Protection for a decision to be made on a particular matter. However, if there is a continuing need to make decisions on the person's behalf, you can ask the Court of Protection to appoint you as a deputy. A deputy was previously known as a receiver.''

    Clearly it ought not to take £200/hr to do this. But in extremis with bills at £4k.month...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    John Stevens ‏@johnestevens 15m15 minutes ago
    Miliband says he has "no idea" who wrote the document on how to tackle questions on immigration


  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    OldKingCole said:



    Mr Llama, when we had major carehome problems a few years ago we found an excellent firm of solicitors in South Wales who specialise, inter alia, in such matters....... If you want the name, PM me. Given your neighbours problems., it could be that the Care Home are not justified in making the charges; it should be the responsibility of the NHS.

    Oh, and when we retired, my wife and I had drawn up and registered, appropriate Powers of Attorney. Each other, plus one of our children.

    Thanks for that, Mr. Cole, I have sent you a message via vanilla.

    Thanks too for your words on having a just in case Power of attorney. A sound plan and one which the Llama family will be adopting in the very near future.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Maybe the big swing to Labour is concentrated in metropolitan areas where it doesn't matter so much,

    You can add Broxtowe, where labour was spanked in a recent local.

    There seems to be a big difference between those who show for labour in the polls and those who are prepared to put a cross in a box for ed in an actual election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Robot entering the cafe.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,207
    chestnut said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could make life simpler or more interesting

    @patrickwintour RT @britainelects: Leaders of SNP, PC and Green Party are willing to coordinate coalition negotiations with Labour - seems important ?

    A further indication that we will see either a left wing coalition or a right wing one next May unless one group of voters unifies behind a single candidate on their side of the political spectrum.

    Does right wing England (55+%) want Miliband plus a Scot, a Welshman and an Australian?
    I'm not sure that Leanne Wood can best be described as a "Welshman"!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2014
    Poor old Vlad. Rouble tanks 6% in a day and still falling fast. Getting a bit serious now. Wonder how much wealth is leaving the country in the holds of private jets.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TGOHF said:

    John Stevens ‏@johnestevens 15m15 minutes ago
    Miliband says he has "no idea" who wrote the document on how to tackle questions on immigration



    That's the problem with leaving blank sheets of paper lying around.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Flightpath said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Just had the daughter of my next door neighbour pop round and she was in urgent need of a restorative. Her Dad has been in a nursing home since April and is now completely ga-ga, but not officially so. He slid down the slope very quickly and never signed power of attorney and has no legal wife. The complications and bills are enormous. The house is now unoccupied and so uninsured, but the insurance company will not accept instructions from the family; Motability will not come and collect the car with out instructions from the chap himself, instructions which he cannot give; the house cannot be rented or sold but the £4k per month bill from the nursing home continue to arrive (he put the account in his daughter's name); the banks just refuse to talk to her. And so on and so forth, no company or agency will accept any instructions from the family or even discuss the issues ("Data Protection, innit"). In desperation the family have gone to the lawyers, of course everything will get sorted out we just need to ... at a cost of £200 per hour plus court and expert fees, but of course these things take time and Christmas is coming.

    A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.

    https://www.gov.uk/make-decisions-for-someone
    ''Help with a specific decision
    Ask the Court of Protection to make a one-off decision about:
    emergency medical treatment for someone
    non-urgent issues regarding someone’s care, eg where they should live or the sale of property''

    I'm guessing there are other things as well. But the govt (as a govt not a political party) does look to give advice and reflect that there are these issues.

    http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/england/relationships_e/relationships_looking_after_people_e/managing_affairs_for_someone_else.htm#h_who_can_make_decisions_when_someone_loses_mental_capacity_and_theres_no_power_of_attorney

    ''It is possible to apply to the Court of Protection for a decision to be made on a particular matter. However, if there is a continuing need to make decisions on the person's behalf, you can ask the Court of Protection to appoint you as a deputy. A deputy was previously known as a receiver.''

    Clearly it ought not to take £200/hr to do this. But in extremis with bills at £4k.month...
    Thanks for the advice, Mr. Path, this is a matter that clearly has to go to law and I understand that the process is underway (getting psychiatric reports etc.).

    As for the lawyers fees, I think £200 per hour is probably about standard around here. I paid £90 per hour for some simple work by a very junior solicitor more than ten years ago.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
    Maybe punters think Lab is most likely to win more seats but when it comes to winning a majority the Tories are more likely to do it because of Labour's Scottish problem. Or it could be different people betting on the two markets.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    Doesn't it seem as if people are assuming that current Lab>SNP switchers are certain to vote SNP, while current Con>UKIP switchers are very likely to return?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    Apparently the hostage taker is on bail for 47 sexual assaults. I'm guessing whoever granted bail is going to be in hot water.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    David Cameron has said "This highlights the problem of Islamic Extremism around the world"

    This guy was just a lone wolf nutter thought want he? I thought Dave would classify him as more of a monster than a muslim
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Be careful what you wish for. Unpleasant regimes seldom go quietly or painlessly.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2014
    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.
    All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Yes - Salmond got out at the right time ;)

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,386
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the hostage taker is on bail for 47 sexual assaults. I'm guessing whoever granted bail is going to be in hot water.

    And alleged murder of his ex-wife.

    Seems like an perfect candidate for bail.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
    Everyone either thinks the SNP numbers are over-inflated and will come down over the coming months or that it is not focused enough to take seats - given the huge majorities they have to shift.

    That's why the constituency polling is so vital to understanding what is going on here in bonny Scotland.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MarkHopkins said:

    TGOHF said:

    John Stevens ‏@johnestevens 15m15 minutes ago
    Miliband says he has "no idea" who wrote the document on how to tackle questions on immigration



    That's the problem with leaving blank sheets of paper lying around.
    Another example of why we need the like button back. Thanks, Mr. Hopkins, for making me laugh.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Doesn't it seem as if people are assuming that current Lab>SNP switchers are certain to vote SNP, while current Con>UKIP switchers are very likely to return?

    That's based on polling for the Reckless by-election isn't it, where people said they were voting UKIP now but were going to going Con come 2015?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
    Everyone either thinks the SNP numbers are over-inflated and will come down over the coming months or that it is not focused enough to take seats - given the huge majorities they have to shift.

    That's why the constituency polling is so vital to understanding what is going on here in bonny Scotland.
    There could be a plateau effect in Scotland, where the biggest swings to the SNP are in the safest Labour seats in places like West Dunbartonshire and Airdrie&Shotts, etc — places that voted Yes in the referendum, and smaller swings in the more marginal Labour seats like Falkirk which voted No. This happened to the Liberal/SDP Alliance in 1983 which explains why they failed to win many seats despite getting 26%.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    David Cameron has said "This highlights the problem of Islamic Extremism around the world"

    This guy was just a lone wolf nutter thought want he? I thought Dave would classify him as more of a monster than a muslim

    Perhaps Dave and Socrates are one and the same.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    David Cameron has said "This highlights the problem of Islamic Extremism around the world"

    This guy was just a lone wolf nutter thought want he? I thought Dave would classify him as more of a monster than a muslim

    Dave puts his foot in it again.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TheWatcher said:

    isam said:

    David Cameron has said "This highlights the problem of Islamic Extremism around the world"

    This guy was just a lone wolf nutter thought want he? I thought Dave would classify him as more of a monster than a muslim

    Perhaps Dave and Socrates are one and the same.
    A kipper can never agree with Cameron, out of principle.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Doesn't it seem as if people are assuming that current Lab>SNP switchers are certain to vote SNP, while current Con>UKIP switchers are very likely to return?

    That's based on polling for the Reckless by-election isn't it, where people said they were voting UKIP now but were going to going Con come 2015?
    I meant GE VI polls really.. you cant really compare them to by election/GE can you? Or can you?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Channel 4 News profile of Man Maron Monis:

    http://www.channel4.com/news/who-is-sydney-gunman-man-haron-monis
  • isamisam Posts: 42,280
    TheWatcher said:

    isam said:

    David Cameron has said "This highlights the problem of Islamic Extremism around the world"

    This guy was just a lone wolf nutter thought want he? I thought Dave would classify him as more of a monster than a muslim

    Perhaps Dave and Socrates are one and the same.
    Interesting CV the guy has.. a fortune teller who likes to sexually abuse his clients.. sounds like a joke the Tory MP for Thurrock would enjoy at a Jim Davidson gig!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    maybe Dave has slightly more info than mr average..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,408
    HurstLlama said:

    OldKingCole said:



    Mr Llama, when we had major carehome problems a few years ago we found an excellent firm of solicitors in South Wales who specialise, inter alia, in such matters....... If you want the name, PM me. Given your neighbours problems., it could be that the Care Home are not justified in making the charges; it should be the responsibility of the NHS.

    Oh, and when we retired, my wife and I had drawn up and registered, appropriate Powers of Attorney. Each other, plus one of our children.

    Thanks for that, Mr. Cole, I have sent you a message via vanilla.

    Thanks too for your words on having a just in case Power of attorney. A sound plan and one which the Llama family will be adopting in the very near future.

    Thank you Mr Llama. I think Flightpath’s advice is excellent too.

    I not only spent some part of my later working life dealing with care home matters but my in-laws were both unfortunate enough to need emergency care for life-threatening and changing situations. Bro-in-law, who was on site, often didn’t know which way to turn and had the sort of bank etc difficulties that your neighbour is experiencing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
    Everyone either thinks the SNP numbers are over-inflated and will come down over the coming months or that it is not focused enough to take seats - given the huge majorities they have to shift.

    That's why the constituency polling is so vital to understanding what is going on here in bonny Scotland.
    There could be a plateau effect in Scotland, where the biggest swings to the SNP are in the safest Labour seats in places like West Dunbartonshire and Airdrie&Shotts, etc — places that voted Yes in the referendum, and smaller swings in the more marginal Labour seats like Falkirk which voted No. This happened to the Liberal/SDP Alliance in 1983 which explains why they failed to win many seats despite getting 26%.
    That said if SNP are still polling 40%+ come election day then it would take a spectacular application of FPTP unfairness to stop them taking a lot of seats.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Balls calling Osborne bluff on the budget charter....will back

    That's quite a clever move, actually.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One of my favourite quotes from Winston Churchill:

    "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."

    http://www.wisdomquotes.com/topics/extremism/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,997
    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Umm...I remember the oil price crashing just before the recession hit. I realise some Conservatives have this almost mystical belief that cheaper petrol prices will somehow translate into votes for them in May. We'll see.

    Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.


  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,322
    edited December 2014
    Greens in Bristol firing shots into their feet.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-30475930

    Replaced by woman who favourited manifesto burning stunt. Might alter the odds against them winning in Bristol West.

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-15/bristol-assistant-mayor-resigns-over-swearing-incident/

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stodge said:

    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Umm...I remember the oil price crashing just before the recession hit. I realise some Conservatives have this almost mystical belief that cheaper petrol prices will somehow translate into votes for them in May. We'll see.

    Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.


    ST Business leader yesterday - no down sides to oil price slump at all.

    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002067.html#more


    "he oil price does partly reflect weaker demand but most of that is a combination of greater efficient in energy use in the West, coupled with a slowdown in emerging economy growth – including China – from the turbocharged rates of the 2000s. Most of the price fall, of course, reflects greater supply; America’s shale oil and gas revolution coupled with Saudi Arabia’s refusal to perform its traditional role as Opec swing producer by slashing output."

    "The oil price, remember, has come part of the way back down to earth but remains significantly higher than it was. We did not pay more than £1 a litre for petrol and diesel in Britain until the autumn of 2007. The fall in prices is a relief, and a welcome boost. Enjoy it for that."
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    stodge said:

    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Umm...I remember the oil price crashing just before the recession hit. I realise some Conservatives have this almost mystical belief that cheaper petrol prices will somehow translate into votes for them in May. We'll see.

    Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.


    There are more car-fillers than investors.

    Investors may regard this as a boot-filling opportunity, on the basis that the fall in the oil price hits the ftse 100 immediately and disproportionately (because 20% of the ftse100 by market cap is oil) but will in the slightly longer term benefit commerce and industry in general.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    John Stevens ‏@johnestevens 15m15 minutes ago
    Miliband says he has "no idea" who wrote the document on how to tackle questions on immigration


    That's about as believable as Gordon Brown claiming to enjoy the Arctic Monkeys.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    That ST article is not complete - in the paper it gave figures for the equivalent boosts to the economy of a tax cut = to petol falling sub £1 and also what the fall will mean for growth figures.

    Cost of living crisis is dead in the water.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Nigerian oil workers go on strike":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30479898
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    "Nigerian oil workers go on strike":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30479898

    Well the price of oil is so low now they have to cut their salaries.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    John Stevens ‏@johnestevens 15m15 minutes ago
    Miliband says he has "no idea" who wrote the document on how to tackle questions on immigration


    That's about as believable as Gordon Brown claiming to enjoy the Arctic Monkeys.
    Bless him, Ed is in his own little world. The Scottish leader declares UDI, his own people are running around writing policies to fill the vacuum he leaves ,while Ed ignores immigration and deficits and anything that might hurt kittens....

    It must be great being in Ed's little bubble.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,788
    Mr. Socrates, that's unfair. I find it very plausible that Miliband has no idea about a great many things: why shouldn't this be one of them?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS,

    So not Sister Wendy and the Justin Welby Jihadi nuns after all?

    "He is believed to have recently converted to Sunni Islam". No real surprise but a little old for this sort of thing?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    He wasn't "foolish", he was greedy:

    "Fare-dodging banker banned from City":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30475232
This discussion has been closed.

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