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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border
The chart above is from yesterday’s IoS/S Mirror poll by ComRes and has the Tories just 1% ahead in England. That is ten points short of what the blues got at the last election.
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Maybe
Then again, you could argue Tories plus UKIP equals 55%.
And then you see why ed is desperate to head off an English parliament.
Comparing a humanist wedding with a serious crime such as murder is stretching a point to say the least.
King Cole
Indeed the rules don't apply to Scotland where wedding locations have been liberalised for more than a decade (and the sky hasn't fallen in AFAIK)
(Or, since they’re close to the border, just possibly in Wales!)
What do the other polls say? How many are needed for them to be of value?
Next UKIP leader odds:
2 @DouglasCarswell
5 @paulnuttallukip
5 @DianeJamesMEP
6 @Steven_Woolfe
8 @oflynnmep
You may have a different moral view to theirs, but just telling them to ignore it or mocking and insulting them isn't the recipe for a cohesive society
Tories: Marginally 1st in England (2nd in some polls), 3rd in Scotland, poor 2nd in Wales.
The Tories increasingly speak for a shrinking area of provincial southern England (which is why they desperately wanted to gerrymander the seats). No prospect of that changing before May.
Good to see you acknowledge how monumentally awful this administration as been.
Why do you only re allocate the bit of UKIP that used to vote Tory?
Again a poor example as to not pay such taxes would be to break the law. It is perfectly legal to oppose humanist weddings and refuse to attend them
Obviously the corollary of the SNP surge is that Labour are effectively 1-2 points "better off" in England. So that raises the swingback bar a touch. But for betting purposes the SNP surge makes Con most seats at odds-against very attractive.
A gross mis representation of what is happening.
It is the population of labour seats that is dropping (largely because they are poor areas people want to get out of if they possibly can, despite vast subsidies).
The population of conservative constituencies is exploding, hence the debate about constituency size equalisation.
But hey, don;t let the truth get in the way of a good rant.
Why don't you use the reply function?
Its only a 5.5% swing with Labour's vote inevitably heading downwards and a few % of UKIP to attract back.. As I do not regard most UKIP voters as fruitcakes (smile), then getting back to the GE 2010 position seems doable. Add in 10+ gains from the LDs and the Cons can concievably finish a bit stronger than GE2010.
'If a third of current UKIP support holds their noses and votes Tory in May 15 to keep out Red Ed the weirdo then Labour will be stuffed, especially with what is happening in Scotland.'
Can't believe the Lib Dems will only poll 8% next May,if 3-5% of red Lib Dems return home it's the end of Ed.
A slightly odd feature was that both the familes came from SE England, and sounded like it, although the grooms had been in Scotland for many years, but all the friends of the young couple sounded Scots.
The function itself was in Linlithgow so all those around sounded Scots, too!
Whoever would've thought we'd end up with Labour doing better in England than Scotland.
Mr. Llama, indeed, but if Miliband wins Labour will **** up England's devolution and sell us down the river to the EU at the first opportunity [I'm aware the Conservatives have been poor on this, but far less so than Brown's treacherous signing of the Lisbon Treaty].
Well worth keeping an eye on.
Events dear boy, events.
Nuttall probably deserves it, and would cement the working class appeal, not sure he'll be a MP come 2015 though. Same with James, Woolfe, and O'Flynn. Of course, UKIP might just pick an MEP even if they have a handful of MPs.
From the outside looking in though, I cant see why ex Tories who say they are now voting UKIP would go back to Cameron.. he was the first Tory leader to become PM at a GE for 18 years.. doesn't the fact that even that is not enough to stop people leaving make you think they might not come back?
It's almost as if the eurozone's a monumentally stupid idea.
@patrickwintour RT @britainelects: Leaders of SNP, PC and Green Party are willing to coordinate coalition negotiations with Labour - seems important ?
Straining at a gnat and swallowing a camel come to mind! Even if he did do it for ages!
You're welcome. I'm just wondering what the implications here might be if the proof it's a monumentally stupid idea emerges early next year.
A wild party and a fake wedding (BobaJob FPT) might sound a grand idea but is no substitute for having the power in law to make decisions and get people talking to you when the wheel falls off.
The biggest underscore of any pollster.
Oh, and when we retired, my wife and I had drawn up and registered, appropriate Powers of Attorney. Each other, plus one of our children.
The law needs serious reform here, and it'll be tricky to get right, but such cases will become more common.
My father had power of attorney for his father (who had Alzheimer's) but even so found things difficult (often with banks and the like).
Yes - they had snuck down there a few days before and tried not to mention that they were technically already married. Many people are ignorant of the law so are unaware that in England humanists can't marry people.
Does right wing England (55+%) want Miliband plus a Scot, a Welshman and an Australian?
Maybe the big swing to Labour is concentrated in metropolitan areas where it doesn't matter so much,
NOM 1.45/1.46
Con Maj 6.0/6.2
Lab Maj 6.6/7.0
''Help with a specific decision
Ask the Court of Protection to make a one-off decision about:
emergency medical treatment for someone
non-urgent issues regarding someone’s care, eg where they should live or the sale of property''
I'm guessing there are other things as well. But the govt (as a govt not a political party) does look to give advice and reflect that there are these issues.
http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/england/relationships_e/relationships_looking_after_people_e/managing_affairs_for_someone_else.htm#h_who_can_make_decisions_when_someone_loses_mental_capacity_and_theres_no_power_of_attorney
''It is possible to apply to the Court of Protection for a decision to be made on a particular matter. However, if there is a continuing need to make decisions on the person's behalf, you can ask the Court of Protection to appoint you as a deputy. A deputy was previously known as a receiver.''
Clearly it ought not to take £200/hr to do this. But in extremis with bills at £4k.month...
Miliband says he has "no idea" who wrote the document on how to tackle questions on immigration
Thanks too for your words on having a just in case Power of attorney. A sound plan and one which the Llama family will be adopting in the very near future.
You can add Broxtowe, where labour was spanked in a recent local.
There seems to be a big difference between those who show for labour in the polls and those who are prepared to put a cross in a box for ed in an actual election.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.
That's the problem with leaving blank sheets of paper lying around.
As for the lawyers fees, I think £200 per hour is probably about standard around here. I paid £90 per hour for some simple work by a very junior solicitor more than ten years ago.
The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.
This guy was just a lone wolf nutter thought want he? I thought Dave would classify him as more of a monster than a muslim
Seems like an perfect candidate for bail.
That's why the constituency polling is so vital to understanding what is going on here in bonny Scotland.
http://www.channel4.com/news/who-is-sydney-gunman-man-haron-monis
I not only spent some part of my later working life dealing with care home matters but my in-laws were both unfortunate enough to need emergency care for life-threatening and changing situations. Bro-in-law, who was on site, often didn’t know which way to turn and had the sort of bank etc difficulties that your neighbour is experiencing.
That's quite a clever move, actually.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."
http://www.wisdomquotes.com/topics/extremism/
Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-30475930
Replaced by woman who favourited manifesto burning stunt. Might alter the odds against them winning in Bristol West.
http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-15/bristol-assistant-mayor-resigns-over-swearing-incident/
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002067.html#more
"he oil price does partly reflect weaker demand but most of that is a combination of greater efficient in energy use in the West, coupled with a slowdown in emerging economy growth – including China – from the turbocharged rates of the 2000s. Most of the price fall, of course, reflects greater supply; America’s shale oil and gas revolution coupled with Saudi Arabia’s refusal to perform its traditional role as Opec swing producer by slashing output."
"The oil price, remember, has come part of the way back down to earth but remains significantly higher than it was. We did not pay more than £1 a litre for petrol and diesel in Britain until the autumn of 2007. The fall in prices is a relief, and a welcome boost. Enjoy it for that."
Investors may regard this as a boot-filling opportunity, on the basis that the fall in the oil price hits the ftse 100 immediately and disproportionately (because 20% of the ftse100 by market cap is oil) but will in the slightly longer term benefit commerce and industry in general.
Cost of living crisis is dead in the water.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30479898
It must be great being in Ed's little bubble.
So not Sister Wendy and the Justin Welby Jihadi nuns after all?
"He is believed to have recently converted to Sunni Islam". No real surprise but a little old for this sort of thing?
"Fare-dodging banker banned from City":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30475232