Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the To

24

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Ishmael_X said:

    stodge said:

    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Umm...I remember the oil price crashing just before the recession hit. I realise some Conservatives have this almost mystical belief that cheaper petrol prices will somehow translate into votes for them in May. We'll see.

    Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.


    There are more car-fillers than investors.

    Investors may regard this as a boot-filling opportunity, on the basis that the fall in the oil price hits the ftse 100 immediately and disproportionately (because 20% of the ftse100 by market cap is oil) but will in the slightly longer term benefit commerce and industry in general.

    There are a number of oil companies whose market cap is currently lower than their cash in the bank.

    There are some great bargains out there right now.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FPT

    Southam, you are flailing about in these answers:

    I see no evidence of that. Again, the right does not get to decide what is or is not Englishness.

    I'm not deciding what is or what is not Englishness. I'm just saying Ralph Miliband had contempt for the English in aggregate (almost want them to lose the war etc), Miliband feels his leadership is the fulfilment of his father's philosophy, and has a set of anti-English policies. It all adds up to a very clear picture.

    You have made it up Socrates. Disagreeing with you does not mean someone is anti-English. It means they disagree with you. Some people hate this country. George Monbiot may well be one of them. But he is not "the left". Orwell was on "the left" as are the millions who vote for left wing parties. I prefer to see them as more representative than a few self-flagellating intellectuals. If you do not, that is up to you.

    Again, you're arguing against something I haven't said. I didn't say the left in general is anti-English. I said that segments of the left are. Maybe the segment I speak of is is just "a few self-flagellating intellectuals", but one of them is in charge of the Labour party.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    On the Ruble, I've calculated that russian manufacturing needs the rate to be 140 to the dollar to regain it's competitive position of 1999.
    That's another 55% from present levels, which is doable by late next year, since the Ruble has fallen by that much this past year.

    But so far the devaluation has really cut prices for russian products.
    To give you a hint of present price levels for russian products (which I did some research to see the devaluation impact) right now you can buy a russian made ipad clone (specifically the roverpad) for 3000 rubles or about 31.50 pounds.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 4h 4 hours ago
    The audience of "undecideds" for Miliband's immigration Great Yarmouth speech: 1st question from, errr, ... http://www.castlepointlabour.org.uk/joe_cooke
    0 replies 6 retweets 3 favorites
    Reply Retweet6 Favorite3
    More

    Miliband's speech to "undecideds" about immigration is actually full of Labour stooges. Somewhat predictable: he has too much contempt for his actual countrymen out there.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2014
    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,826
    Speedy said:

    On the Ruble, I've calculated that russian manufacturing needs the rate to be 140 to the dollar to regain it's competitive position of 1999.
    That's another 55% from present levels, which is doable by late next year, since the Ruble has fallen by that much this past year.

    But so far the devaluation has really cut prices for russian products.
    To give you a hint of present price levels for russian products (which I did some research to see the devaluation impact) right now you can buy a russian made ipad clone (specifically the roverpad) for 3000 rubles or about 31.50 pounds.

    That yotaphone thing looks really cool -anyone know of a supplier?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 9m9 minutes ago
    downing street is investigating reports that the sydney siege gunman may have been in contact with a previous prime minister.

    Bet he was a big Tony fan :D
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    There are more car-fillers than investors.

    And those car fillers will decide the election.

    And its not just car fillers. Oil affects transport of all sorts. Air fares. Diesel for lorries. If you can transport it cheaper you can sell it cheaper.

  • Mr. Anorak, presumably it's having a similar affect in Saudi Arabia and similar countries?

    With the Greek election forthcoming (29 December, I think), the festive season could be politically interesting.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Isam, the constant wet coldness is irksome, but is certainly seasonal.

    In more troubling news, there seems to be no way at all of removing e-books from only some of Amazon's sites (I was going to remove mine from the EU sites [excepting the UK, of course], as a purely precautionary measure). I'm near certain I'll be fine, but if not I'll be livid (I could remove them, but that would make selling books a bit tricky and I could lose any meta-data that's built up [stuff like "People who bought this also bought X, Y and Z" which is handy]).

    Bloody EU. They're completely ****ing stupid.


    Sorry to hear about that Morris_Dancer. Are you voting UKIP yet?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 9m9 minutes ago
    downing street is investigating reports that the sydney siege gunman may have been in contact with a previous prime minister.

    Bet he was a big Tony fan :D

    Will Blair finally get the sack as middle east peace envoy?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Well I'll be darned! James O'Brien guilty of anti Ukip bias on lbc

    http://order-order.com/2014/12/15/ofcom-james-obrien-guilty-of-anti-ukip-bias/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    There are more car-fillers than investors.

    And those car fillers will decide the election.

    And its not just car fillers. Oil affects transport of all sorts. Air fares. Diesel for lorries. If you can transport it cheaper you can sell it cheaper.

    Whether it will change many votes on its own is not known.

    However Ed's entire strategy on "cost of living" is worth about the same as a 5 rouble note.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Mr. Anorak, presumably it's having a similar affect in Saudi Arabia and similar countries?

    With the Greek election forthcoming (29 December, I think), the festive season could be politically interesting.

    The Saudi Riyal is pretty much pegged to the dollar, and has shown no sign of shifting. The latest fall seems more linked to the level of debt held by Russian business. A lot of this is USD-denominated, so the currency depreciation is likely to trigger defaults or restructuring which will further hurt an economy wounded by sanctions, and then headbutted by a falling oil price.

    Still, they have almost no national debt and a big room stuffed with currency reserves, so it's hardly the end days. Probably.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Whilst Mike scrabbles around the detritus of tiny sub-samples for evidence re. the Conservatives, here's an amusing slant on UKIP against Boris:
    http://order-order.com/2014/12/15/top-ukip-donor-funds-loony-to-take-on-boris/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    On the Ruble, I've calculated that russian manufacturing needs the rate to be 140 to the dollar to regain it's competitive position of 1999.
    That's another 55% from present levels, which is doable by late next year, since the Ruble has fallen by that much this past year.

    But so far the devaluation has really cut prices for russian products.
    To give you a hint of present price levels for russian products (which I did some research to see the devaluation impact) right now you can buy a russian made ipad clone (specifically the roverpad) for 3000 rubles or about 31.50 pounds.

    That yotaphone thing looks really cool -anyone know of a supplier?
    You are making a point:
    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/1164893.htm

    The price is 23,499 rubles, or 238 pounds:
    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/yota-devices-yotaphone-1159
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Still, they have almost no national debt and a big room stuffed with currency reserves, so it's hardly the end days. Probably.

    There's an interesting article on Conhome about this.

    Whilst the Saudi production price is very low, given their spending commitments they might find it less than comfortable after a while if prices persist at these levels.
  • Mr. Socrates, it grows more tempting, but my ire is firmly focused on the ****ing EU, not any one political party.

    It's possible the law will be such a ****ing disaster it'll end up being dropped. Seriously, it's the most cretinous piece of legislation since Blair tried to get people locked up for 90 days without needing any of that pesky evidence.

    At the moment my options are:
    1) remove everything from Amazon [as I did with Smashwords, but that's a little more complicated for reasons I won't bore you with] meaning I'll have nothing, save an anthology of which I contributed one short story, online to buy
    2) leave stuff on Amazon. I'm 99% sure it'll be fine, but if it isn't and I'm unlucky I'll have to jump through countless administrative hoops for which I have neither the time nor the money. If I remove stuff, I might well lose the meta-data I've built up

    I'm tempted to remove it, and then put it up with a temporary sale price if everything is ok after a few months. Financially, I'm in a very difficult position anyway (but hoping the books out next year will mark a turning point, and thankfully they should be unaffected), and this really doesn't help.

    And I'm not the worst affected by a long stretch. Many small businesses will be screwed. This won't harm Amazon, though it'll scrape a little tax from them. It's a pitifully ill-conceived law.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    stodge said:


    Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.

    It's been all downhill since the Scottish Referendum.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    taffys said:

    Still, they have almost no national debt and a big room stuffed with currency reserves, so it's hardly the end days. Probably.

    There's an interesting article on Conhome about this.

    Whilst the Saudi production price is very low, given their spending commitments they might find it less than comfortable after a while if prices persist at these levels.

    The Saudis spend a lot on social and defence spending (aka islamic rebels, political kickbacks for defence contracts, lobbying, the latest iphone, gucci handbags etc etc).
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    stodge said:

    taffys said:

    EDIT: Ooookay. Another 1% fall in last 20 mins.

    The fall in the price of oil is just about the best thing to happen this year. All kinds of unpleasant regimes are getting squeezed, and not before time.

    Umm...I remember the oil price crashing just before the recession hit. I realise some Conservatives have this almost mystical belief that cheaper petrol prices will somehow translate into votes for them in May. We'll see.

    Another fall in share prices with the FTSE 10% or so off its height. Of course, for all those people with investments in the stock market, such a fall might not be such good news and might offset their glee at saving a few quid on filling up the car.


    There are more car-fillers than investors.

    Investors may regard this as a boot-filling opportunity, on the basis that the fall in the oil price hits the ftse 100 immediately and disproportionately (because 20% of the ftse100 by market cap is oil) but will in the slightly longer term benefit commerce and industry in general.

    A recovery in oil shares has helped the FTSE index today.
    Are companies (ie industry generally) still making profits despite the share price? Are they paying dividends? Are share prices falling because they were previously too high.
    There is a difference between investors and speculators. Speculators can make money on rising or falling prices.
    David Smith of The Sunday times points out ''Falling prices as a result of domestic deflation are bad. Falling prices as a result of a correction in global energy prices are good, because they boost real income growth.''
    If real income growth is being boosted that is of benefit to the governmment politically. It may not be its fault but the opposite as a result of the recession would/was not be its fault either but it would/did take the blame.
    Its likely that even as we speak fund managers are plotting which companies/countries will benefit and planning their purchases accordingly.

    Bad news for UKIP hero Putin as the Rouble drops to a new low and interest rates rise to 10.5%.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,826
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    On the Ruble, I've calculated that russian manufacturing needs the rate to be 140 to the dollar to regain it's competitive position of 1999.
    That's another 55% from present levels, which is doable by late next year, since the Ruble has fallen by that much this past year.

    But so far the devaluation has really cut prices for russian products.
    To give you a hint of present price levels for russian products (which I did some research to see the devaluation impact) right now you can buy a russian made ipad clone (specifically the roverpad) for 3000 rubles or about 31.50 pounds.

    That yotaphone thing looks really cool -anyone know of a supplier?
    You are making a point:
    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/1164893.htm

    The price is 23,499 rubles, or 238 pounds:
    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/yota-devices-yotaphone-1159
    I think that might be a bit of a bargain.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    taffys said:

    Balls calling Osborne bluff on the budget charter....will back

    That's quite a clever move, actually.

    In Scotland?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    By the way I have found more victims from low oil prices: luxury goods, apple products, art, luxury property.
    Wealthy oil countries were the major source of the boom in those sectors.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
    The SNP should create a disconnect between OM and Most Seats.

    Basically it makes it easier for the CONs to win Most Seats but not an OM.

    They make it harder (longer odds) for Labour OM and Labour Most Seats.

    What they don't affect is increase a chance of Con OM
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,826
    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    They survived the seige of Leningrad. I can't see panic setting in over this somehow.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989


    A recovery in oil shares has helped the FTSE index today.

    You mean, helped it to a 110-point fall. The FTSE is currently at 6190 despite attempts to push it higher this morning while the Dow heads sub 17,000.

    The petrol price at my local Tesco's is now 113.9p per litre so some way to go to test the 2008 lows and in fact the "fall" has been 7p per litre from the long period of price stability through the summer.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Another currency to fall to a record low today, interestingly, is the Turkish lira.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2014
    Cameron showing no sense re votes at 16 in Scotland, but probably will try and run this for Westminster.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30475323

    Once again Dave has taken leave of his senses.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the hostage taker is on bail for 47 sexual assaults. I'm guessing whoever granted bail is going to be in hot water.

    Either way it seems he is dead now. Sadly so is someone else.
    The other lurid thing to come out of this is the 'selfies' episode. Very strange.
  • Mr. Stodge, I don't know if the price fall will continue, but if it does it'd paint Miliband's price freeze policy in an interesting light...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj has now overtaken Lab Maj in the Majority market:

    NOM 1.45/1.46
    Con Maj 6.0/6.2
    Lab Maj 6.6/7.0

    Yep, I flagged that up last night. At the time Lab were 7 and Con 5.7.
    Yet Lab are still favourite for most seats at 1.93 - baffling given the SNP numbers.
    The SNP should create a disconnect between OM and Most Seats.

    Basically it makes it easier for the CONs to win Most Seats but not an OM.

    They make it harder (longer odds) for Labour OM and Labour Most Seats.

    What they don't affect is increase a chance of Con OM
    It's actually quite simple, Labour in England are doing very well, Labour in Scotland are doing catastrophically bad.
    The 65-70 english seat gains from the Tories more that cover the 20-30 seat losses in scotland for Labour to the SNP.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    They survived the seige of Leningrad. I can't see panic setting in over this somehow.
    A fair point. Russia is practically unchanged since then, after all.

    [Panic is relative. A lot of Russian businesses are probably very concerned, some will be panicking. Some will be shrugging and carrying on.]
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    dr_spyn said:

    Cameron showing no sense re votes at 16 in Scotland, but probably will try and run this for Westminster.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30475323

    Once again Dave has taken leave of his senses.

    I think they parted many years ago.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    They survived the seige of Leningrad. I can't see panic setting in over this somehow.
    A fair point. Russia is practically unchanged since then, after all.

    [Panic is relative. A lot of Russian businesses are probably very concerned, some will be panicking. Some will be shrugging and carrying on.]
    It depends if they are importers or exporters.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Anorak said:

    Mr. Anorak, presumably it's having a similar affect in Saudi Arabia and similar countries?

    With the Greek election forthcoming (29 December, I think), the festive season could be politically interesting.

    The Saudi Riyal is pretty much pegged to the dollar, and has shown no sign of shifting. The latest fall seems more linked to the level of debt held by Russian business. A lot of this is USD-denominated, so the currency depreciation is likely to trigger defaults or restructuring which will further hurt an economy wounded by sanctions, and then headbutted by a falling oil price.

    Still, they have almost no national debt and a big room stuffed with currency reserves, so it's hardly the end days. Probably.
    Russia runs a trade surplus before the current devaluation, as you say little debt, the private sector is deleveraging especially in regards to external debt. In December Russian companies and banks face substantial dollar repayments, this ends in January with low levels required for 2015. The Rouble tends to overreact but should stabilise in the new year.

    Cost of extraction is much lower than US shale, deep sea or Canadian tar sands plus costs are in Rubles.
  • Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,378
    Has The God Lord retired for 2014
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    Mr. Stodge, I don't know if the price fall will continue, but if it does it'd paint Miliband's price freeze policy in an interesting light...

    Possibly but it will also paint the energy providers in an interesting light as pressure grows on them to reduce their tariffs significantly which I suspect they won't.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    taffys said:

    Another currency to fall to a record low today, interestingly, is the Turkish lira.

    Turkey is a large credit importer, their economy is not competitive since the crash of 08 and is surviving by cheap foreign loans (thanks to western central bank liquidity), however 2014 was better for them due to the mediterrenian tourism boom.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.


    It certainly has opened the door for demands for votes generally to be at 16.

    Perhaps anyone 16-17 who has a job and pays tax can have a vote - might be a reasonable compromise?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    Has The God Lord retired for 2014

    I think Lord A has.
    I hope not, because his scottish seats poll hasn't been released yet.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited December 2014
    Possibly but it will also paint the energy providers in an interesting light as pressure grows on them to reduce their tariffs significantly which I suspect they won't.

    How can they reduce their tariffs if Ed has frozen the price by law??

    In a falling market, all ed will succeed in doing is giving the energy providers a free put option. He will in effect be making them more money than they otherwise would.

    In fact he's already doing that by giving them the excuse they are keeping prices high because his freeze is coming.

    Pretending the market doesn;t exist is utter madness. Its being tried in Venezuela to catastrophic effect.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    The Russian people are going to pay the price for an economy based on a small elite getting rich from resource rents, while their arbitrary rule undermined property rights. Hopefully there's a silver lining in that the Russian people will respond by pushing for good governance and democratic rights.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    O/T Long but worth a read - out foreign aid to parts of Africa is chicken feed compared to the drug money.

    http://www.newsweek.com/2014/11/28/blood-lines-how-cocaine-nights-fund-beheadings-285545.html

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2014
    taffys said:

    Another currency to fall to a record low today, interestingly, is the Turkish lira.

    Large tourism sector. Russians don't need a visa to go to Turkey, but they do for the EU, meaning Bodrum is chock-full of ex-commies. If they can't afford to travel, then Turkey gets hurt. (some rampant speculation there! Speedy has provided a much better answer)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2014

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.


    It certainly has opened the door for demands for votes generally to be at 16.

    Perhaps anyone 16-17 who has a job and pays tax can have a vote - might be a reasonable compromise?

    With education shortly set to continue to 18, a mandatory change I believe, that will not make many eligible to vote.

    In England, your leaving age depends on when you were born. You can leave school on the last Friday in June as long as you'll be 16 by the end of that year's summer holidays. You must stay in some form of education or training until your 18th birthday if you were born on or after 1 September 1997.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    stodge said:


    A recovery in oil shares has helped the FTSE index today.

    You mean, helped it to a 110-point fall. The FTSE is currently at 6190 despite attempts to push it higher this morning while the Dow heads sub 17,000.

    The petrol price at my local Tesco's is now 113.9p per litre so some way to go to test the 2008 lows and in fact the "fall" has been 7p per litre from the long period of price stability through the summer.

    There is no bid in the HY energy credit markets at the moment, big exposure in North America. Worth looking at who has exposure to Petrobras too. Very good reasons markets are selling off.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander- what next - the recently deceased ? Why not 14 , 12 , 10 ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.

    Quite right, Mr. Dancer. As a society we have decided that 16 and 17 year-olds are not mature enough and do not have sufficient judgement to decide if they want to smoke a cigarette, drink a glass of beer or even leave full-time education. Yet now we are asked to believe that their level of judgement and maturity is sufficient to have a say on who should form the next government.

    Says quite a lot about what the politicians think of voters really.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited December 2014
    Anorak said:

    taffys said:

    Another currency to fall to a record low today, interestingly, is the Turkish lira.

    Large tourism sector. Russians don't need a visa to go to Turkey, but they do for the EU, meaning Bodrum is chock-full of ex-commies. If they can't afford to travel, then Turkey gets hurt. (some rampant speculation there! Speedy has provided a much better answer)
    Actually they run a large current account deficit and are reliant on foreign financing, those capital inflows are unlikely now. Or of course it's all to do with Bodrum or maybe that a drop in the Lira would actually attract more tourists helping to attract foreign money.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander
    Bloody stupid way to gerrymander given that prior to Edinburgh agreement all polling showed that 16/17 year olds were less likely to support Independence than the general population.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    dr_spyn said:

    Cameron showing no sense re votes at 16 in Scotland, but probably will try and run this for Westminster.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30475323

    Once again Dave has taken leave of his senses.

    Its called devolution. The Scottish Conservative leader supports votes at 16. All five Holyrood parties called for the relevant powers to be devolved in "sufficient time" for changes to be made for the 2016 election. Repeat its called devolution. Maybe in your eagerness you are smearing the wrong leader.
    Its nice to see Nicola smiling so sweetly at Cameron. Where is the expected scowl?

    Cameron does not support votes at 16 for Westminster. Given devolution, what he or anyone in England things is not relevant.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has The God Lord retired for 2014

    I think Lord A has.
    I hope not, because his scottish seats poll hasn't been released yet.
    First teased at the end of October.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One of my local petrol stations has dropped the price to 112.9.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander
    Bloody stupid way to gerrymander given that prior to Edinburgh agreement all polling showed that 16/17 year olds were less likely to support Independence than the general population.
    Language Timothy !

    It is a typical SNP "wedge" - like drink driving laws etc - fiddle for no good reason just to emphasise differences.

    Pathetic stuff.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2014
    It's only a matter of time before the first Kipper agrees that votes for 16 olds would be a good idea too.

    Farage, Carswell or Reckless?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander
    Bloody stupid way to gerrymander given that prior to Edinburgh agreement all polling showed that 16/17 year olds were less likely to support Independence than the general population.
    So SNP = fing stupid party.

    Fair call.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AndyJS said:

    One of my local petrol stations has dropped the price to 112.9.

    Mine is now 109.7p. Lowest since Blair was PM.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Ed Miliband's speech today on immigration lasted seven minutes. They really don't have anything to say other than the patronising "we hear your concerns".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    It's only a matter of time before the first Kipper agrees that votes for 16 olds would be a good idea too.

    Farage, Carswell or Reckless?

    White 16 year olds ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    Cameron showing no sense re votes at 16 in Scotland, but probably will try and run this for Westminster.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30475323

    Once again Dave has taken leave of his senses.

    Its called devolution. The Scottish Conservative leader supports votes at 16. All five Holyrood parties called for the relevant powers to be devolved in "sufficient time" for changes to be made for the 2016 election. Repeat its called devolution. Maybe in your eagerness you are smearing the wrong leader.
    Its nice to see Nicola smiling so sweetly at Cameron. Where is the expected scowl?

    Cameron does not support votes at 16 for Westminster. Given devolution, what he or anyone in England things is not relevant.
    So how are 16 year olds in Scotland any more politically mature than elsewhere in the UK? Cameron and Sturgeon are misguided fools.
  • Socrates said:

    Ed Miliband's speech today on immigration lasted seven minutes. They really don't have anything to say other than the patronising "we hear your concerns".

    But he can talk for hours about Gareth who he met in the park...
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander- what next - the recently deceased ? Why not 14 , 12 , 10 ?
    All of the 16 year olds I know who voted in the referendum took it as seriously as anyone else. At the end of the day you can get married, join the army, leave school etc at 16 - not being able to vote seems ridiculous.

    From some of the bigoted nonsense I see on this site, I think there is just as good a case for stopping some of you from voting !!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Mr. Anorak, presumably it's having a similar affect in Saudi Arabia and similar countries?

    With the Greek election forthcoming (29 December, I think), the festive season could be politically interesting.

    The Saudi Riyal is pretty much pegged to the dollar, and has shown no sign of shifting. The latest fall seems more linked to the level of debt held by Russian business. A lot of this is USD-denominated, so the currency depreciation is likely to trigger defaults or restructuring which will further hurt an economy wounded by sanctions, and then headbutted by a falling oil price.

    Still, they have almost no national debt and a big room stuffed with currency reserves, so it's hardly the end days. Probably.
    Russia runs a trade surplus before the current devaluation, as you say little debt, the private sector is deleveraging especially in regards to external debt. In December Russian companies and banks face substantial dollar repayments, this ends in January with low levels required for 2015. The Rouble tends to overreact but should stabilise in the new year.

    Cost of extraction is much lower than US shale, deep sea or Canadian tar sands plus costs are in Rubles.
    Fair enough, however, "The Central Bank of Russia said that it now expects GDP to shrink by 4.5 to 4.7pc next year" "The central bank has said that it expects annual inflation to hit 10pc by the end of the year, accelerating to 11.5pc in the first quarter of 2015" "The Central Bank of Russia has said that it expects outflows to hit $128bn this year, and $120bn in 2015"*

    Those are not the signs one would expect from an economy hitting a blip but with plenty of power left under the bonnet. They are the signs of an economy in deep shit. Putin is also in the news today threatening traders who take adverse positions. Capital controls and other restrictions on world trade don't look an unreasonable bet to me.

    *Quotes from the Telegraph article for convenience but the figures can be found elsewhere.
  • Mr. Calum, are you suggesting those opposed to votes at 16 are bigoted?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    One of my local petrol stations has dropped the price to 112.9.

    Mine is now 109.7p. Lowest since Blair was PM.
    Whereabouts is that?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    calum said:

    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander- what next - the recently deceased ? Why not 14 , 12 , 10 ?
    All of the 16 year olds I know who voted in the referendum took it as seriously as anyone else. At the end of the day you can get married, join the army, leave school etc at 16 - not being able to vote seems ridiculous.
    In most of the UK:

    - You can't get married without parental consent until the age of 18
    - You can't fight in the army until the age of 18
    - From 2015, you won't be able to leave school until the age of 18

    So no reason to give the vote to children...
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    The Russian people are going to pay the price for an economy based on a small elite getting rich from resource rents, while their arbitrary rule undermined property rights. Hopefully there's a silver lining in that the Russian people will respond by pushing for good governance and democratic rights.
    Well maybe if the Americans stopped interfering and seeking to destabilise Russia. As George Kennan well knew Russians rally around their leader when attacked.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/23/project-syndicate-robert-skidelsky-kennan-revenge-russia-ukraine

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Please don't tell me Cameron has agreed to Scottish 16 year olds' voting in the general election.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FalseFlag said:

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.

    Russia is currently weak, and dominated by criminals and oligarchs.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Please don't tell me Cameron has agreed to Scottish 16 year olds' voting in the general election.

    He has. What a numpty. Like Labour before him, he's rifling up the differences between north and south of the border.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited December 2014
    @Calum

    "At the end of the day you can get married, join the army, leave school etc at 16"

    Can we leave the army out of this debate. A 16 year old cannot join the army as a soldier. They can, with their parents written consent, go to the army version of a XVIth form college at Harrogate Yorkshire where they will be trained in useful skills for soldiering and life as well as undergo purely educational classes. As an education for a non-academic 16 year old it is an option well worth considering. It is not, however, joining the army.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.

    Russia is currently weak, and dominated by criminals and oligarchs.
    Relative to the 1990s? No.
  • Mr. JS, no. Votes at 16 for Holyrood.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    calum said:

    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander- what next - the recently deceased ? Why not 14 , 12 , 10 ?
    All of the 16 year olds I know who voted in the referendum took it as seriously as anyone else. At the end of the day you can get married, join the army, leave school etc at 16 - not being able to vote seems ridiculous.

    From some of the bigoted nonsense I see on this site, I think there is just as good a case for stopping some of you from voting !!
    I agree with at least the first bit. It was my daughter's first vote (she was 17) and she was heavily involved in the referendum campaign. She voted no and you don't get much more sensible than that!

    I saw a number of debates with younger voters and they were at least as informed as that of the supposed adults and generally more measured. I went into the referendum dead set against a voting age of 16 and came out a convert. It does not surprise me at all that all the party leaders in Scotland have come out the same way.

    (I should say that my 11 year old son was infuriated that he did not have a vote using the compelling argument that he was going to live with the consequences a lot longer than us oldies but that would be going too far.) Sorry David.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Huzzah. I knew we would get a USA destabilising Russia sooner or later.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    The Russian people are going to pay the price for an economy based on a small elite getting rich from resource rents, while their arbitrary rule undermined property rights. Hopefully there's a silver lining in that the Russian people will respond by pushing for good governance and democratic rights.
    Well maybe if the Americans stopped interfering and seeking to destabilise Russia. As George Kennan well knew Russians rally around their leader when attacked.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/23/project-syndicate-robert-skidelsky-kennan-revenge-russia-ukraine

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.
    Putin is running an anti-corruption drive? Seriously? He runs a kleptocrat state but wants to crack down on corruption?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    One of my local petrol stations has dropped the price to 112.9.

    Mine is now 109.7p. Lowest since Blair was PM.
    Whereabouts is that?
    Redditch
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,826
    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.

    Russia is currently weak, and dominated by criminals and oligarchs.
    What does that make us and our planeless carriers and useless nuclear deferrent then. Dead?


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    dr_spyn said:

    Cameron showing no sense re votes at 16 in Scotland, but probably will try and run this for Westminster.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30475323

    Once again Dave has taken leave of his senses.

    Its called devolution. The Scottish Conservative leader supports votes at 16. All five Holyrood parties called for the relevant powers to be devolved in "sufficient time" for changes to be made for the 2016 election. Repeat its called devolution. Maybe in your eagerness you are smearing the wrong leader.
    Its nice to see Nicola smiling so sweetly at Cameron. Where is the expected scowl?

    Cameron does not support votes at 16 for Westminster. Given devolution, what he or anyone in England things is not relevant.
    Aren't elections a reserved matter?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    DavidL said:

    calum said:

    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander- what next - the recently deceased ? Why not 14 , 12 , 10 ?
    All of the 16 year olds I know who voted in the referendum took it as seriously as anyone else. At the end of the day you can get married, join the army, leave school etc at 16 - not being able to vote seems ridiculous.

    From some of the bigoted nonsense I see on this site, I think there is just as good a case for stopping some of you from voting !!
    I agree with at least the first bit. It was my daughter's first vote (she was 17) and she was heavily involved in the referendum campaign. She voted no and you don't get much more sensible than that!

    I saw a number of debates with younger voters and they were at least as informed as that of the supposed adults and generally more measured. I went into the referendum dead set against a voting age of 16 and came out a convert. It does not surprise me at all that all the party leaders in Scotland have come out the same way.

    (I should say that my 11 year old son was infuriated that he did not have a vote using the compelling argument that he was going to live with the consequences a lot longer than us oldies but that would be going too far.) Sorry David.
    Fair enough Mr. L., so presumably you will be in favour of 16 year-olds being allowed all the currently age-barred privileges of adulthood. Drinking, smoking, not having to do education, being able to enter into binding contracts and all the rest of it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    taffys said:

    Possibly but it will also paint the energy providers in an interesting light as pressure grows on them to reduce their tariffs significantly which I suspect they won't.

    How can they reduce their tariffs if Ed has frozen the price by law??

    In a falling market, all ed will succeed in doing is giving the energy providers a free put option. He will in effect be making them more money than they otherwise would.

    In fact he's already doing that by giving them the excuse they are keeping prices high because his freeze is coming.

    Pretending the market doesn;t exist is utter madness. Its being tried in Venezuela to catastrophic effect.

    I am more interested to see what happens between now and May than in the event of Labour taking office.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    When I was 16 I was in favour of votes at 16, oddly enough.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.

    Russia is currently weak, and dominated by criminals and oligarchs.
    What does that make us and our planeless carriers and useless nuclear deferrent then. Dead?


    I agree with you on both these issues.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,826
    Alistair said:

    Huzzah. I knew we would get a USA destabilising Russia sooner or later.

    Not sure where you've been; it's been going on for ages. Putin wisely banned foreign NGOs a few years ago. The difference now is the US is batshit crazy enough to upset the entire post cold war settlement and provoke open war. Pissed off the whole world, sitting on a debt mountain, I suppose there's little left to do but keep digging.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Alistair said:

    Huzzah. I knew we would get a USA destabilising Russia sooner or later.

    Not sure where you've been; it's been going on for ages. Putin wisely banned foreign NGOs a few years ago. The difference now is the US is batshit crazy enough to upset the entire post cold war settlement and provoke open war. Pissed off the whole world, sitting on a debt mountain, I suppose there's little left to do but keep digging.

    Tinfoil hat time.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited December 2014
    Blimey

    Axe the TV Tax
    @AxeTheTVtax
    Diane Abbott MP received over £110,000 from the BBC in appearance fees since April 2007 Http://www.wp.me/p4trbG-2a
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    It's only a matter of time before the first Kipper agrees that votes for 16 olds would be a good idea too.

    Farage, Carswell or Reckless?

    Your relentlessly moronic nyahnyah na nyahnyah style of posting renders this site virtually unreadable.

    It also suggests that you aren't frightfully clever. Post-May it is likely that a kipper operating on your level of infantile malevolence will be able to say to you "ha ha, we kept you out of Downing Street" or "ha ha, we kept you out of a majority" to which your answer is what? We kept your vote share in the low teens? Bit asymmetric, don't you think?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Every country which relies on just one resource for its wealth must be getting a bit nervous at the moment, and deservedly so in most cases.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Socrates said:

    calum said:

    TGOHF said:

    Votes at 16 is bloody stupid. Should never have been allowed in the referendum.



    it aint broke. Only reason the SNP wanted it was for a Gerrymander- what next - the recently deceased ? Why not 14 , 12 , 10 ?
    All of the 16 year olds I know who voted in the referendum took it as seriously as anyone else. At the end of the day you can get married, join the army, leave school etc at 16 - not being able to vote seems ridiculous.
    In most of the UK:

    - You can't get married without parental consent until the age of 18
    - You can't fight in the army until the age of 18
    - From 2015, you won't be able to leave school until the age of 18

    So no reason to give the vote to children...
    Calum is clearly Scottish which you Socrates are not!

    In Scotland parental consent has never been required to marry at 16.
    In Scotland youngsters can leave school at 16.
    In WWI lots of Scots fought on the Western Front aged 16 having lied about their age.

    David Cameron is merely enabling the democratic wishes of the Scottish parliament that 16 and 17 year olds should be able to vote in 2016 and thereafter in all Scotland only elections. They will not be getting the vote next May but of course if the Bland man ever gets near No10 he intends to lower the voting age because he has been told it will improve Labour's future election prospects.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato said:

    Blimey

    Axe the TV Tax
    @AxeTheTVtax
    Diane Abbott MP received over £110,000 from the BBC in appearance fees since April 2007 Http://www.wp.me/p4trbG-2a

    Not wonder she always look so smug sitting on the sofa next to Portillo.
  • Plato said:

    Blimey

    Axe the TV Tax
    @AxeTheTVtax
    Diane Abbott MP received over £110,000 from the BBC in appearance fees since April 2007 Http://www.wp.me/p4trbG-2a

    Gotta pay for the kids school fees somehow.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Alistair said:

    Huzzah. I knew we would get a USA destabilising Russia sooner or later.

    Not sure where you've been; it's been going on for ages. Putin wisely banned foreign NGOs a few years ago. The difference now is the US is batshit crazy enough to upset the entire post cold war settlement and provoke open war. Pissed off the whole world, sitting on a debt mountain, I suppose there's little left to do but keep digging.

    The US isn't the one annexing parts of its neighbours. It is the Russian government that has plunged its economy into crisis through constant government seizures of private property, clampdowns on political protests and foreign imperialism. Yet you'll blame the Americans if it all goes pear-shaped. Insane.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2014
    Ishmael_X said:

    It's only a matter of time before the first Kipper agrees that votes for 16 olds would be a good idea too.

    Farage, Carswell or Reckless?

    "ha ha, we kept you out of Downing Street" or "ha ha, we kept you out of a majority" to which your answer is what?

    "Oh look, PM Miliband has further integrated the UK into Europe. There's a surprise"

    What are you expecting? (Other than the fantasy of a UKIP government in 2020).

    As for votes for 16 year olds, at some point UKIP will follow the others and think it's a good idea. They're fielding early 20 somethings for parliamentary seats; it's only a hop and a skip to teenagers. Politicians are remarkably similar creatures.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    One of my local petrol stations has dropped the price to 112.9.

    Mine is now 109.7p. Lowest since Blair was PM.
    Whereabouts is that?
    Redditch
    Redditch? You have never confessed that before. I mean to say, Redditch? It is sort of the Harlow New Town of Warwickshire. You left Ulster and dragged your poor wife out of Horsham only to end up in Redditch? Gosh, I think Mrs. Brooke is entitled to a refund.

    Except you aren't serious, are you? Its just like when I tell people from afar I live near Brighton. I expect you live somewhere very nice near Redditch. Assuming there are such places.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    DavidL said:



    I saw a number of debates with younger voters and they were at least as informed as that of the supposed adults and generally more measured. I went into the referendum dead set against a voting age of 16 and came out a convert. It does not surprise me at all that all the party leaders in Scotland have come out the same way.

    (I should say that my 11 year old son was infuriated that he did not have a vote using the compelling argument that he was going to live with the consequences a lot longer than us oldies but that would be going too far.) Sorry David.

    Yes, self-selection deals with the perception that stoned teenagers are going to real out of the clubs and vote for mad politicians - only the sort of teenagers who take these issues seriously are going to bother to vote. One could make a stronger case for saying it will increase the nerd vote.

  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    Rouble now down 9%. Panic setting in. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

    The Russian people are going to pay the price for an economy based on a small elite getting rich from resource rents, while their arbitrary rule undermined property rights. Hopefully there's a silver lining in that the Russian people will respond by pushing for good governance and democratic rights.
    Well maybe if the Americans stopped interfering and seeking to destabilise Russia. As George Kennan well knew Russians rally around their leader when attacked.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/23/project-syndicate-robert-skidelsky-kennan-revenge-russia-ukraine

    Of course what the US really wants is Yeltsin's Russia, weak, servile and dominated by criminals and oligarchs. Afraid that won't happen. Putin has at least seen to that, let's hope his anti corruption drive has similar success now.
    Putin is running an anti-corruption drive? Seriously? He runs a kleptocrat state but wants to crack down on corruption?
    Most countries are, its all relative.
This discussion has been closed.