Labour renters bill looks like a charter for tenants to run rings round landlords:
- Have to be 3 months in arrears before landlord can take action - Can go 2 months in arrears repeatedly without landlord being able to do anything - Four weeks notice once landlord takes action
So all that means tenant can have their last 4 months rent free.
And of course if landlord does take action, how long will it take to get a Court date, then eviction notice, then wait for bailiffs?
I look after one single rental property for a relative who lives overseas (she inherited it). It's already on the market for sale but with all this I'll call her tomorrow morning to say she must evict the tenants immediately.
The risk of hassle is just not worth it.
The Act wont take effect until next summer I think.
If you are already in the sales process seems unlikely anything it says will matter to you.
I know - but we've been trying to sell the property for a year without success so I have no confidence that we'll have got rid of it by next summer.
I've also been told the tenants make it harder to sell as place looks a mess and less spacious due to all their clutter.
I have been quite harsh on him since he became PM. But his messaging on NHS reform was the sort of messaging I hoped for from his government (perhaps a bit too gloomy again, but I’ll give him that this time).
Only Labour will be trusted enough to reform the NHS. This might be empty rhetoric, but it is a promising first step.
Labour renters bill looks like a charter for tenants to run rings round landlords:
- Have to be 3 months in arrears before landlord can take action - Can go 2 months in arrears repeatedly without landlord being able to do anything - Four weeks notice once landlord takes action
So all that means tenant can have their last 4 months rent free.
And of course if landlord does take action, how long will it take to get a Court date, then eviction notice, then wait for bailiffs?
I look after one single rental property for a relative who lives overseas (she inherited it). It's already on the market for sale but with all this I'll call her tomorrow morning to say she must evict the tenants immediately.
The risk of hassle is just not worth it.
I expect an exodus of a large number of landlords
Which might bring the proportion of privately rented properties back down to what it was before the Conservatives got in.
Labour renters bill looks like a charter for tenants to run rings round landlords:
- Have to be 3 months in arrears before landlord can take action - Can go 2 months in arrears repeatedly without landlord being able to do anything - Four weeks notice once landlord takes action
So all that means tenant can have their last 4 months rent free.
And of course if landlord does take action, how long will it take to get a Court date, then eviction notice, then wait for bailiffs?
I look after one single rental property for a relative who lives overseas (she inherited it). It's already on the market for sale but with all this I'll call her tomorrow morning to say she must evict the tenants immediately.
The risk of hassle is just not worth it.
The Act wont take effect until next summer I think.
If you are already in the sales process seems unlikely anything it says will matter to you.
I know - but we've been trying to sell the property for a year without success so I have no confidence that we'll have got rid of it by next summer.
I've also been told the tenants make it harder to sell as place looks a mess and less spacious due to all their clutter.
So all in all it makes sense to just get rid.
Are you trying to sell to other landlords? They will care far more about what the level of rent is than any clutter.
You'll lose several months worth of rent if it is empty.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
I don't know. This assumes tomorrow will be like today. It may well be, but there's also a plausible scenario that far right leaders make gains across Europe and Trump gets back in such that the next election is against a very different global backdrop. Add in the eminent possibility that Reeves and Starmer don't create much growth and I could see there being a very different political landscape in UK in five years' time - much angrier, more willing to vote for the simplistic nonsense of the far right.
Yes, true. I'd rephrase to say it's about risk reward then. Going that route - hard populist right - is high on both counts. It could, if we truly are on the way to the gutter, pay enormous dividends. But I judge it unlikely. In which case the risk comes in and the Tories could be all over as a major party. So on balance the other option, the hard yards plodding return to being the clear centre right alternative to Labour, with focus on reclaiming the Blue Wall, is imo the way to go.
It's also, whisper it, the right thing to do for the future of this country. Not sure that figures highly in the prospective leaders' calculations, though.
Our one-day survey conducted on Wednesday among 3,317 likely voters found the Democratic nominee leading her Republican counterpart 50% to 45%. The 5-percentage-point margin represents a slight improvement on her 3-and 4-point leads in our surveys conducted in the lead-up to the debate, though the shift was within the surveys’ margins of error.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
Counterpoint is that those Blue Wallers are going to be damn difficult to win back. As long as the Lib Dems are in opposition, why should voters flip their alleigence from one opposition party to another? That wasn't the case for the Red Wall- they flipped because they wanted a Conservative government and largely flipped back when it failed to deliver the goods. See also Scotland- many voters were happy to block Labour by voting SNP until the failings of their government were impossible to ignore.
It's a difficult problem. It's an important one, sure- I find it hard to see how the Conservatives get a majority without those 70-odd seats in affluent "nice Britain". It would have blocked Boris in 2019, and Maggie would have been in deep trouble in 1983 and 1987. But the difficulty, even before we consider the Lib Dem ground game, makes it understandable that even thoughful Tories are shying away from the question.
It doesn't help that drawing maps of imaginary armies to win Operation Reunite The Right is more fun.
And if (witness here) lots of 'non populist' centre righters have given up on them that kind of forces them in a Farage direction, I suppose.
I have no interest in the conservative leader campaign and await the election of the leader which by the way is taking far too long
I would just say the following
It is far too early to suggest labour will lose the next election, but their doom and gloom is depressing as a19% approval rating must be for them
It is also far too early to give the last rights to the conservative party which, no matter who the leader is, has a mountain to climb but it certainly is possible to recover in the 5 years it faces in opposition
The Lib Dems did well, but it is a sobering thought that Farage achieved 14% of the vote with 5 seats, and the Lib Dems 12% gaining 72 which is a strange quirk of the electoral system
I am not convinced Farage will be a force as time passes, and I do expect some Reform voters to return to the conservatives but again no idea how many and when
What this does show is it is a mugs game to try to predict the outcome of the next GE so early in the parliament
The doom and gloom is not, perhaps, universal. There is a significant and growing divergence between age groups in consumer surveys, with old people much more likely to be pessimistic about their personal finances and the economy than younger people.
This is at odds with actual personal circumstance, with older people much better off on average - but this measures whether people think they will improve or not. The question is whether the increased optimism of younger age groups will transfer across to the polls.
Remember that PB is populated by older and richer people than the general population. If the battleground is middle aged workers, then things are better for Labour than portrayed here. The next set of surveys will be interesting; even more so after the budget.
Labour renters bill looks like a charter for tenants to run rings round landlords:
- Have to be 3 months in arrears before landlord can take action - Can go 2 months in arrears repeatedly without landlord being able to do anything - Four weeks notice once landlord takes action
So all that means tenant can have their last 4 months rent free.
And of course if landlord does take action, how long will it take to get a Court date, then eviction notice, then wait for bailiffs?
I look after one single rental property for a relative who lives overseas (she inherited it). It's already on the market for sale but with all this I'll call her tomorrow morning to say she must evict the tenants immediately.
The risk of hassle is just not worth it.
The Act wont take effect until next summer I think.
If you are already in the sales process seems unlikely anything it says will matter to you.
I know - but we've been trying to sell the property for a year without success so I have no confidence that we'll have got rid of it by next summer.
I've also been told the tenants make it harder to sell as place looks a mess and less spacious due to all their clutter.
So all in all it makes sense to just get rid.
The history of English law (John Baker the best book, but not for the easily bored) has demonstrated two things consistently from about 1100 until today:
1) It is impossible to get the balance right as between those who possess different interests in real property (such as landlord and tenant)
and
2) It is impossible to get the balance right between the human desire to fix what your future descendants can do with your real property, and the human desire not to be dictated by your ancestors about what you can do with your real property.
Its all a bit of a trial, but it has done much for the 19th century novel, and for the wealth of Lincoln's Inn.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
Counterpoint is that those Blue Wallers are going to be damn difficult to win back. As long as the Lib Dems are in opposition, why should voters flip their alleigence from one opposition party to another? That wasn't the case for the Red Wall- they flipped because they wanted a Conservative government and largely flipped back when it failed to deliver the goods. See also Scotland- many voters were happy to block Labour by voting SNP until the failings of their government were impossible to ignore.
It's a difficult problem. It's an important one, sure- I find it hard to see how the Conservatives get a majority without those 70-odd seats in affluent "nice Britain". It would have blocked Boris in 2019, and Maggie would have been in deep trouble in 1983 and 1987. But the difficulty, even before we consider the Lib Dem ground game, makes it understandable that even thoughful Tories are shying away from the question.
It doesn't help that drawing maps of imaginary armies to win Operation Reunite The Right is more fun.
And if (witness here) lots of 'non populist' centre righters have given up on them that kind of forces them in a Farage direction, I suppose.
I have no interest in the conservative leader campaign and await the election of the leader which by the way is taking far too long
I would just say the following
It is far too early to suggest labour will lose the next election, but their doom and gloom is depressing as a19% approval rating must be for them
It is also far too early to give the last rights to the conservative party which, no matter who the leader is, has a mountain to climb but it certainly is possible to recover in the 5 years it faces in opposition
The Lib Dems did well, but it is a sobering thought that Farage achieved 14% of the vote with 5 seats, and the Lib Dems 12% gaining 72 which is a strange quirk of the electoral system
I am not convinced Farage will be a force as time passes, and I do expect some Reform voters to return to the conservatives but again no idea how many and when
What this does show is it is a mugs game to try to predict the outcome of the next GE so early in the parliament
The doom and gloom is not, perhaps, universal. There is a significant and growing divergence between age groups in consumer surveys, with old people much more likely to be pessimistic about their personal finances and the economy than younger people.
This is at odds with actual personal circumstance, with older people much better off on average - but this measures whether people think they will improve or not. The question is whether the increased optimism of younger age groups will transfer across to the polls.
Remember that PB is populated by older and richer people than the general population. If the battleground is middle aged workers, then things are better for Labour than portrayed here. The next set of surveys will be interesting; even more so after the budget.
I have been quite harsh on him since he became PM. But his messaging on NHS reform was the sort of messaging I hoped for from his government (perhaps a bit too gloomy again, but I’ll give him that this time).
Only Labour will be trusted enough to reform the NHS. This might be empty rhetoric, but it is a promising first step.
I agree and wish Labour well in their efforts to reform many things, I really hope they succeed. But announcing punishment beatings until morale improves is ... Well, who in the Labour government is responsible for the vision thing? Couldn't they have started by communicating the vision?
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
Counterpoint is that those Blue Wallers are going to be damn difficult to win back. As long as the Lib Dems are in opposition, why should voters flip their alleigence from one opposition party to another? That wasn't the case for the Red Wall- they flipped because they wanted a Conservative government and largely flipped back when it failed to deliver the goods. See also Scotland- many voters were happy to block Labour by voting SNP until the failings of their government were impossible to ignore.
It's a difficult problem. It's an important one, sure- I find it hard to see how the Conservatives get a majority without those 70-odd seats in affluent "nice Britain". It would have blocked Boris in 2019, and Maggie would have been in deep trouble in 1983 and 1987. But the difficulty, even before we consider the Lib Dem ground game, makes it understandable that even thoughful Tories are shying away from the question.
It doesn't help that drawing maps of imaginary armies to win Operation Reunite The Right is more fun.
And if (witness here) lots of 'non populist' centre righters have given up on them that kind of forces them in a Farage direction, I suppose.
I have no interest in the conservative leader campaign and await the election of the leader which by the way is taking far too long
I would just say the following
It is far too early to suggest labour will lose the next election, but their doom and gloom is depressing as a19% approval rating must be for them
It is also far too early to give the last rights to the conservative party which, no matter who the leader is, has a mountain to climb but it certainly is possible to recover in the 5 years it faces in opposition
The Lib Dems did well, but it is a sobering thought that Farage achieved 14% of the vote with 5 seats, and the Lib Dems 12% gaining 72 which is a strange quirk of the electoral system
I am not convinced Farage will be a force as time passes, and I do expect some Reform voters to return to the conservatives but again no idea how many and when
What this does show is it is a mugs game to try to predict the outcome of the next GE so early in the parliament
The doom and gloom is not, perhaps, universal. There is a significant and growing divergence between age groups in consumer surveys, with old people much more likely to be pessimistic about their personal finances and the economy than younger people.
This is at odds with actual personal circumstance, with older people much better off on average - but this measures whether people think they will improve or not. The question is whether the increased optimism of younger age groups will transfer across to the polls.
Remember that PB is populated by older and richer people than the general population. If the battleground is middle aged workers, then things are better for Labour than portrayed here. The next set of surveys will be interesting; even more so after the budget.
Word cloud from May this year suggests cost of living is biggest concern of the young, after 50 increasingly supplanted by NHS and immigration.
The NHS focus is really interesting, and I wonder how best for the Conservatives to approach it.
Their vote is almost entirely in that over 50 demographic so developing some trust on health is probably key to electoral success - and therefore a big risk for Labour is they do go for some radical reforms.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
Counterpoint is that those Blue Wallers are going to be damn difficult to win back. As long as the Lib Dems are in opposition, why should voters flip their alleigence from one opposition party to another? That wasn't the case for the Red Wall- they flipped because they wanted a Conservative government and largely flipped back when it failed to deliver the goods. See also Scotland- many voters were happy to block Labour by voting SNP until the failings of their government were impossible to ignore.
It's a difficult problem. It's an important one, sure- I find it hard to see how the Conservatives get a majority without those 70-odd seats in affluent "nice Britain". It would have blocked Boris in 2019, and Maggie would have been in deep trouble in 1983 and 1987. But the difficulty, even before we consider the Lib Dem ground game, makes it understandable that even thoughful Tories are shying away from the question.
It doesn't help that drawing maps of imaginary armies to win Operation Reunite The Right is more fun.
And if (witness here) lots of 'non populist' centre righters have given up on them that kind of forces them in a Farage direction, I suppose.
I have no interest in the conservative leader campaign and await the election of the leader which by the way is taking far too long
I would just say the following
It is far too early to suggest labour will lose the next election, but their doom and gloom is depressing as a19% approval rating must be for them
It is also far too early to give the last rights to the conservative party which, no matter who the leader is, has a mountain to climb but it certainly is possible to recover in the 5 years it faces in opposition
The Lib Dems did well, but it is a sobering thought that Farage achieved 14% of the vote with 5 seats, and the Lib Dems 12% gaining 72 which is a strange quirk of the electoral system
I am not convinced Farage will be a force as time passes, and I do expect some Reform voters to return to the conservatives but again no idea how many and when
What this does show is it is a mugs game to try to predict the outcome of the next GE so early in the parliament
The doom and gloom is not, perhaps, universal. There is a significant and growing divergence between age groups in consumer surveys, with old people much more likely to be pessimistic about their personal finances and the economy than younger people.
This is at odds with actual personal circumstance, with older people much better off on average - but this measures whether people think they will improve or not. The question is whether the increased optimism of younger age groups will transfer across to the polls.
Remember that PB is populated by older and richer people than the general population. If the battleground is middle aged workers, then things are better for Labour than portrayed here. The next set of surveys will be interesting; even more so after the budget.
Word cloud from May this year suggests cost of living is biggest concern of the young, after 50 increasingly supplanted by NHS and immigration.
The NHS focus is really interesting, and I wonder how best for the Conservatives to approach it.
Their vote is almost entirely in that over 50 demographic so developing some trust on health is probably key to electoral success - and therefore a big risk for Labour is they do go for some radical reforms.
If they say too much they risk giving the Gov and NHS interests a common foe.
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · 31m Putin said that the permission for long-range strikes against Russia "will mean that NATO countries are directly at war with Russia."
We've been at war with Russia for a good few years. It's been a cold war (and hopefully will remain so for us...), but it's a war nonetheless. Salisbury was just one example, or the ammo dumps in Europe that went boom.
Trump falsely claimed during the presidential debate Tuesday that protesters took over a big portion Seattle during the Capitol Hill Organized Protest in 2020.
Some overlap between the Tory membership and wider public there in that both thought the Tories had been in too long and not fully delivered.
About half of Tory members wanting to move to the right to reclaim Reform voters is no surprise either as that is where most 2019 Tories who did not vote Tory again went in July. To win a majority though the Tories need to add defectors to Labour and LD as well. Winning back most voters lost to Reform just gets them to first base
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
I think that's obvious, members are to right of MPs (allegedly). Reckon it'll be Jenrick, having beaten C/T, disappointing on the upside to be replaced in 18 months by Kemi.
The thing I don't understand is why the MPs are voting for Cleverly and Tugendhat. They must know that they haven't got the numbers to get them both on the ballot. They must know that either of them loses to either of Jenrick or Badenoch. So surely the only game in town should be to pick whichever one of Jenrick/Badenoch they prefer.
Yes. I am not a particular fan of Baker, and I am not sure he's a tremendously nice person but this interview was literally the only thing I have encountered anywhere that intelligently discussed the post election and leadership issues. Strongly recommended; especially on the subject of leadership qualities.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
I think that's obvious, members are to right of MPs (allegedly). Reckon it'll be Jenrick, having beaten C/T, disappointing on the upside to be replaced in 18 months by Kemi.
The Tories are already just 4% behind Labour and I expect Jenrick to at least hold almost all the 26% who back the Tories on the latest poll. I suspect whoever leads the party will be ahead in a few polls by the New Year given the tax rises and WFA cancellations and stopping the boats failures of this Labour government
Entirely predictable. Parties nearly always lurch to the extreme after a long time in government before tacking back to the centre after a defeat - and this time there's the added electoral challenge of Reform making that option oh so enticing.
But it'll fail because it will so strongly reinforce the tactical voting against them, even if they somehow manage to reuinite the right - which itself is unlikely because Reform and Tory voters are actually quite different political beasts and don't sit very naturally together.
Take me as an unrepresentative sample of one (but maybe not *that* unrepresentative). Long-time Tory member, activist, official and briefly councillor. Offered the chance to return having resigned five years ago. Instead joined the Lib Dems.
Like Nick I did not know you had joined the LDs - You are very welcome. Are you very active? Are you enjoying the change?
I agree with most of what you post, but I am still surprised we have gained you. I always considered you a very sensible Tory, but a Tory nonetheless.
I'm not active yet - I literally only joined this month, having reached a point where I could withdraw from my Yorkshire Party responsibilities without causing undue disruption, but I expect to become active soon. Wakefield has all-out elections in 20 months, which is an interesting opportunity.
It’s a struggle for people like us to keep on defending the Tories.
I shall also leave the party forever if Jenrick or Badenoch lead the party.
We’re not so much the nasty party these days as we are the angry party, unhappy with the world as it is.
I entirely understand about Jenrick but why Badenoch? She is no where near as extreme as Jenrick, Patel or Braverman. If it were a matter of competence I might see your point but you seem to be targetting extremism specifically. Not sure why you consider Badenoch to be on a par with the other extremists on that score.
On Woke Badenoch is the hardest line against of all of them
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
Counterpoint is that those Blue Wallers are going to be damn difficult to win back. As long as the Lib Dems are in opposition, why should voters flip their alleigence from one opposition party to another? That wasn't the case for the Red Wall- they flipped because they wanted a Conservative government and largely flipped back when it failed to deliver the goods. See also Scotland- many voters were happy to block Labour by voting SNP until the failings of their government were impossible to ignore.
It's a difficult problem. It's an important one, sure- I find it hard to see how the Conservatives get a majority without those 70-odd seats in affluent "nice Britain". It would have blocked Boris in 2019, and Maggie would have been in deep trouble in 1983 and 1987. But the difficulty, even before we consider the Lib Dem ground game, makes it understandable that even thoughful Tories are shying away from the question.
It doesn't help that drawing maps of imaginary armies to win Operation Reunite The Right is more fun.
Tugendhat has a chance of winning back the blue wall from the LDs, I doubt any of the other Tory leadership candidates do.
Jenrick for example would be better off targeting 100-150 Labour Leave and Redwall seats to get a hung parliament and hoping Reform can pick up 40-50 white working class Leave seats from Labour too and then try and do a deal with Farage after the election
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
On topic - but I want it and that means everyone else must want it too. The dangers of the bubble are very real for both the left and the right but the latter do seem much more hamstrung by it at present. Not just in this country either.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
'Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Should have said "where's the beef?" like Walter Mondale.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
How did the other 28.3% vote then? Why are you ignoring them? You don't think they can be squeezed in an election where the non-Con propsective Govt isn't 20 points up in the polls?
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
Seats are more important though. IMO the Cons should take a leaf from Keir Starmer in order to plot their way back. The core of his strategy was reclaiming the Red Wall. Anything else was a nice to have. The need to win those seats informed almost everything he did as Labour leader.
The Tories equivalent is the Blue Wall. The LDs smashed them there. They gained a shedload of seats and the Cons have to get most of those back as the basis for a revival. This means no lurch to the populist right chasing RUK voters. Lots of the members might want that but it's not a smart move.
Counterpoint is that those Blue Wallers are going to be damn difficult to win back. As long as the Lib Dems are in opposition, why should voters flip their alleigence from one opposition party to another? That wasn't the case for the Red Wall- they flipped because they wanted a Conservative government and largely flipped back when it failed to deliver the goods. See also Scotland- many voters were happy to block Labour by voting SNP until the failings of their government were impossible to ignore.
It's a difficult problem. It's an important one, sure- I find it hard to see how the Conservatives get a majority without those 70-odd seats in affluent "nice Britain". It would have blocked Boris in 2019, and Maggie would have been in deep trouble in 1983 and 1987. But the difficulty, even before we consider the Lib Dem ground game, makes it understandable that even thoughful Tories are shying away from the question.
It doesn't help that drawing maps of imaginary armies to win Operation Reunite The Right is more fun.
And if (witness here) lots of 'non populist' centre righters have given up on them that kind of forces them in a Farage direction, I suppose.
I have no interest in the conservative leader campaign and await the election of the leader which by the way is taking far too long
I would just say the following
It is far too early to suggest labour will lose the next election, but their doom and gloom is depressing as a19% approval rating must be for them
It is also far too early to give the last rights to the conservative party which, no matter who the leader is, has a mountain to climb but it certainly is possible to recover in the 5 years it faces in opposition
The Lib Dems did well, but it is a sobering thought that Farage achieved 14% of the vote with 5 seats, and the Lib Dems 12% gaining 72 which is a strange quirk of the electoral system
I am not convinced Farage will be a force as time passes, and I do expect some Reform voters to return to the conservatives but again no idea how many and when
What this does show is it is a mugs game to try to predict the outcome of the next GE so early in the parliament
The doom and gloom is not, perhaps, universal. There is a significant and growing divergence between age groups in consumer surveys, with old people much more likely to be pessimistic about their personal finances and the economy than younger people.
This is at odds with actual personal circumstance, with older people much better off on average - but this measures whether people think they will improve or not. The question is whether the increased optimism of younger age groups will transfer across to the polls.
Remember that PB is populated by older and richer people than the general population. If the battleground is middle aged workers, then things are better for Labour than portrayed here. The next set of surveys will be interesting; even more so after the budget.
Doom and gloom are not at all universal. The problem with politics and its allied trades is that their big measure of things is stuff like GDP, money, waiting lists, demographics and bogus opinion polls like the ones in the article.
It doesn't take account of and cannot measure: tickling the baby's toes, wider family support for children, fun, jokes, reading in bed, sunrises, good neighbours, metaphysical support structures like beliefs, worldviews and religion, most volunteering, goodwill, the kindness of a doctor's receptionist, coffee mornings, allotments, picking apples off your tree and giving them to others and a multitude of the things that make life meaningful.
The philosopher Stephen Clark call this the pre-political realm. It is the arena that makes most difference most of the time.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
You'd have to have been there to see if that was as described, or completely different in tone - a running joke, for example.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
How did the other 28.3% vote then? Why are you ignoring them? You don't think they can be squeezed in an election where the non-Con propsective Govt isn't 20 points up in the polls?
There's no guarantee that the non-Con prospective govt in 4-5 years' time will be Labour. Maybe it's Labour's vote that will be squeezed from both sides.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
How did the other 28.3% vote then? Why are you ignoring them? You don't think they can be squeezed in an election where the non-Con propsective Govt isn't 20 points up in the polls?
It's the difference between the UK and US/Canada. That side of the Atlantic, there isn't really anywhere for sad wet right-wingers to go. So they end up trapped, line the old guy in Tomorrow Belongs To Me.
In the UK, there's a much easier escape route, as seen upthread. That changes the strategic situation, for all it would make my ancestors spin in their graves on a personal level.
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Seriously what is the bullshit, TSE?
He’s got a thing for Kemi.
I'm all for scrutiny of our politicians but what Kemi is being subjected to at the moment, particularly compared to her other Tory leadership rivals, is coming close to bullying IMO. And it's sad to see PB getting involved in it...
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
I think that's obvious, members are to right of MPs (allegedly). Reckon it'll be Jenrick, having beaten C/T, disappointing on the upside to be replaced in 18 months by Kemi.
The thing I don't understand is why the MPs are voting for Cleverly and Tugendhat. They must know that they haven't got the numbers to get them both on the ballot. They must know that either of them loses to either of Jenrick or Badenoch. So surely the only game in town should be to pick whichever one of Jenrick/Badenoch they prefer.
There are three decent reasons: 1) The same reason as anyone in a constituency might vote for a party that can't win. That's a substantial proportion of voters
2) Because they don't care who wins out of Jenrick and Badenoch so you vote for who you want
3) The best reason: it's not over till it is over, and there is an outside chance that (IMHO) Cleverly will squeeze through the middle.
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Seriously what is the bullshit, TSE?
He’s got a thing for Kemi.
Nah, I am a horrible racist as I’ve only ever dated white women.
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Seriously what is the bullshit, TSE?
He’s got a thing for Kemi.
I'm all for scrutiny of our politicians but what Kemi is being subjected to at the moment, particularly compared to her other Tory leadership rivals, is coming close to bullying IMO. And it's sad to see PB getting involved in it...
People said the same when I pointed Liz Truss would be a dire PM.
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
I think that's obvious, members are to right of MPs (allegedly). Reckon it'll be Jenrick, having beaten C/T, disappointing on the upside to be replaced in 18 months by Kemi.
The thing I don't understand is why the MPs are voting for Cleverly and Tugendhat. They must know that they haven't got the numbers to get them both on the ballot. They must know that either of them loses to either of Jenrick or Badenoch. So surely the only game in town should be to pick whichever one of Jenrick/Badenoch they prefer.
But if too many of them do that, then they risk both Jenrick and Badenoch being the final two.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
How did the other 28.3% vote then? Why are you ignoring them? You don't think they can be squeezed in an election where the non-Con propsective Govt isn't 20 points up in the polls?
It's the difference between the UK and US/Canada. That side of the Atlantic, there isn't really anywhere for sad wet right-wingers to go. So they end up trapped, line the old guy in Tomorrow Belongs To Me.
In the UK, there's a much easier escape route, as seen upthread. That changes the strategic situation, for all it would make my ancestors spin in their graves on a personal level.
Canada has a Liberal party too which is not that dissimilar to the UK LDs ideologically and actually in government now
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Seriously what is the bullshit, TSE?
He’s got a thing for Kemi.
I'm all for scrutiny of our politicians but what Kemi is being subjected to at the moment, particularly compared to her other Tory leadership rivals, is coming close to bullying IMO. And it's sad to see PB getting involved in it...
People said the same when I pointed Liz Truss would be a dire PM.
Kemi isn't standing for PM though? She's standing for Con leader and LOTO.
If she wins and it turns out she's no good she'll either be removed as LOTO by Tory MP's or she'll lose the 2029 election and Labour will get another term. 🤷♂️
Entirely predictable. Parties nearly always lurch to the extreme after a long time in government before tacking back to the centre after a defeat - and this time there's the added electoral challenge of Reform making that option oh so enticing.
But it'll fail because it will so strongly reinforce the tactical voting against them, even if they somehow manage to reuinite the right - which itself is unlikely because Reform and Tory voters are actually quite different political beasts and don't sit very naturally together.
Take me as an unrepresentative sample of one (but maybe not *that* unrepresentative). Long-time Tory member, activist, official and briefly councillor. Offered the chance to return having resigned five years ago. Instead joined the Lib Dems.
Like Nick I did not know you had joined the LDs - You are very welcome. Are you very active? Are you enjoying the change?
I agree with most of what you post, but I am still surprised we have gained you. I always considered you a very sensible Tory, but a Tory nonetheless.
I'm not active yet - I literally only joined this month, having reached a point where I could withdraw from my Yorkshire Party responsibilities without causing undue disruption, but I expect to become active soon. Wakefield has all-out elections in 20 months, which is an interesting opportunity.
It’s a struggle for people like us to keep on defending the Tories.
I shall also leave the party forever if Jenrick or Badenoch lead the party.
We’re not so much the nasty party these days as we are the angry party, unhappy with the world as it is.
I entirely understand about Jenrick but why Badenoch? She is no where near as extreme as Jenrick, Patel or Braverman. If it were a matter of competence I might see your point but you seem to be targetting extremism specifically. Not sure why you consider Badenoch to be on a par with the other extremists on that score.
On Woke Badenoch is the hardest line against of all of them
I'm still not convinced that the average Joe, when asked what the most pressing matters are to them, says "mixed gender toilets". Which seems to be Kemi's trump card. I don't see anything else of note.
@moonshine the other day said the Taylor Swifts endorsement of Harris would make no difference. As of today 406,000 have used the personalised link she provided to register to vote.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Seriously what is the bullshit, TSE?
He’s got a thing for Kemi.
Nah, I am a horrible racist as I’ve only ever dated white women.
Yup. Nailed it.
You’ve got a full length poster of her on the back of your bedroom door, don’t you?
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.
Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
Both examples from early 2023 under Good King Rishi, so not like now when Starmer has trashed our envy-of-the-world prison system. There is no longer room at the inn.
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
How did the other 28.3% vote then? Why are you ignoring them? You don't think they can be squeezed in an election where the non-Con propsective Govt isn't 20 points up in the polls?
It's the difference between the UK and US/Canada. That side of the Atlantic, there isn't really anywhere for sad wet right-wingers to go. So they end up trapped, line the old guy in Tomorrow Belongs To Me.
In the UK, there's a much easier escape route, as seen upthread. That changes the strategic situation, for all it would make my ancestors spin in their graves on a personal level.
Canada has a Liberal party too which is not that dissimilar to the UK LDs ideologically and actually in government now
In terms of labels, yes.
In terms of functions in a FPTP system, no.
Canadian Liberals are a plausible party of government, the main alternative to the CanCons. British Liberals, bless 'em, aren't, which makes them an easier landing point for disillusioned Tories and Socialists.
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)." M https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms
If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
To be fair, quite a lot of Physics PhDs wouldn’t know that either…
Quoting has gone funny
It's not a general knowledge issue, the dialogue with GPT4 is apparently
Who is TC's mother?
- Mary Lee Pfeiffer
- Name one of MLP's offspring
- How the fuck should I know?
Because it hasn't grokked the mother son relationship and hasn't seen the tokens in the right order to answer question 2.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.
Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
This provides a pretty clear steer on the winner of the Tory leadership contest - it will be the rightmost of the final two - and what that will do for the Tories' prospects at the next election - not much good.
It ain't necessarily so, especially if Labour continue to become unpopular in office.
GE result:
Labour 33.7% Tory 23.7% Reform 14.3%
How did the other 28.3% vote then? Why are you ignoring them? You don't think they can be squeezed in an election where the non-Con propsective Govt isn't 20 points up in the polls?
It's the difference between the UK and US/Canada. That side of the Atlantic, there isn't really anywhere for sad wet right-wingers to go. So they end up trapped, line the old guy in Tomorrow Belongs To Me.
In the UK, there's a much easier escape route, as seen upthread. That changes the strategic situation, for all it would make my ancestors spin in their graves on a personal level.
Canada has a Liberal party too which is not that dissimilar to the UK LDs ideologically and actually in government now
In terms of labels, yes.
In terms of functions in a FPTP system, no.
Canadian Liberals are a plausible party of government, the main alternative to the CanCons. British Liberals, bless 'em, aren't, which makes them an easier landing point for disillusioned Tories and Socialists.
Sometimes, not always, at the 2011 Canadian election for example the social democratic NDP, the Canadian cousins of UK Labour, formed the main opposition to Harper's Conservative government and the Liberals collapsed to third.
In 2010 here of course our Liberals campaigned left but ended up in government with the Tories under Clegg
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.
Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
Police don't need to investigate themselves. The person running the community service will just tell their probation officer and if they breach again then the police will arrest them and the courts can jail them.
Police do tend to stir for muggings, certainly if knives involved and burglaries if large amounts stolen
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)." M https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms
If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
To be fair, quite a lot of Physics PhDs wouldn’t know that either…
Quoting has gone funny
It's not a general knowledge issue, the dialogue with GPT4 is apparently
Who is TC's mother?
- Mary Lee Pfeiffer
- Name one of MLP's offspring
- How the fuck should I know?
Because it hasn't grokked the mother son relationship and hasn't seen the tokens in the right order to answer question 2.
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :
In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.
Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
Police don't need to investigate themselves. The person running the community service will just tell their probation officer and if they breach again then the police will arrest them and the courts can jail them
You think police arresting them != police turning out? Sorry go live in a poor estate for a year you will meet plenty that dodge these orders and still manage to be walking around and being a pain in the arse to everyone else....they are laughing at your laws, the law abiding in those areas are holding the law in total contempt for not protecting them.
Trump’s having a rally today in Tucson at the Linda Ronstadt Music Hall. Here’s her statement about him “bringing his hate show” to the city where she was born and lived half her life.
Bonus fact—Ronstadt Hall holds 2300; guess they couldn’t fill the 8900-seat arena next door.
He, allegedly, burned his bridges on not paying the bills on the big arena's last time round so no-one will have him. Which is doubly lucky given he can't sell enough tickets. Almost like it's some sort of grift.
"Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.
A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.
Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."
And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.
Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
Police don't need to investigate themselves.
Recent police scandals suggest this statement is in error.
Trump’s having a rally today in Tucson at the Linda Ronstadt Music Hall. Here’s her statement about him “bringing his hate show” to the city where she was born and lived half her life.
Bonus fact—Ronstadt Hall holds 2300; guess they couldn’t fill the 8900-seat arena next door.
He, allegedly, burned his bridges on not paying the bills on the big arena's last time round so no-one will have him. Which is doubly lucky given he can't sell enough tickets. Almost like it's some sort of grift.
Comments
I've also been told the tenants make it harder to sell as place looks a mess and less spacious due to all their clutter.
So all in all it makes sense to just get rid.
I have been quite harsh on him since he became PM. But his messaging on NHS reform was the sort of messaging I hoped for from his government (perhaps a bit too gloomy again, but I’ll give him that this time).
Only Labour will be trusted enough to reform the NHS. This might be empty rhetoric, but it is a promising first step.
1690 US adults polled. But the article does not say how many pets.
You'll lose several months worth of rent if it is empty.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/harris-trump-first-debate-poll
Our one-day survey conducted on Wednesday among 3,317 likely voters found the Democratic nominee leading her Republican counterpart 50% to 45%. The 5-percentage-point margin represents a slight improvement on her 3-and 4-point leads in our surveys conducted in the lead-up to the debate, though the shift was within the surveys’ margins of error.
Inevitably, twitter economists have spent the last few hours pointing out that closing oil and gas is what he wants.
"Steve Baker on the Tory implosion and how the party rebuilds | SpectatorTV"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcrBV1JOd0Y
This is at odds with actual personal circumstance, with older people much better off on average - but this measures whether people think they will improve or not. The question is whether the increased optimism of younger age groups will transfer across to the polls.
Remember that PB is populated by older and richer people than the general population. If the battleground is middle aged workers, then things are better for Labour than portrayed here. The next set of surveys will be interesting; even more so after the budget.
1) It is impossible to get the balance right as between those who possess different interests in real property (such as landlord and tenant)
and
2) It is impossible to get the balance right between the human desire to fix what your future descendants can do with your real property, and the human desire not to be dictated by your ancestors about what you can do with your real property.
Its all a bit of a trial, but it has done much for the 19th century novel, and for the wealth of Lincoln's Inn.
We had it all but what do I know?
With added Sir Anthony Hopkins.
In a story by Rose Tremain.
And I'll get to dress up as a hussar for a big filmed ball.
Huzzah!
The Royalists
@TheRoyalistsUK
Bearskin hats have been used as part of the uniform of the Foot Guards since the early nineteenth century.
The bearskin is sourced from legally organised culls in Canada designed to reduce dangerously high black bear populations.
https://x.com/TheRoyalistsUK/status/1834257026064482560
Word cloud from May this year suggests cost of living is biggest concern of the young, after 50 increasingly supplanted by NHS and immigration.
Their vote is almost entirely in that over 50 demographic so developing some trust on health is probably key to electoral success - and therefore a big risk for Labour is they do go for some radical reforms.
A bad combination.
But it's actually a rather sweet moment of bipartisanship, and a deft way of taking the heat out of a confrontation. Watch the video.
https://x.com/seattletimes/status/1833902617258270912
Trump falsely claimed during the presidential debate Tuesday that protesters took over a big portion Seattle during the Capitol Hill Organized Protest in 2020.
About half of Tory members wanting to move to the right to reclaim Reform voters is no surprise either as that is where most 2019 Tories who did not vote Tory again went in July. To win a majority though the Tories need to add defectors to Labour and LD as well. Winning back most voters lost to Reform just gets them to first base
Jenrick for example would be better off targeting 100-150 Labour Leave and Redwall seats to get a hung parliament and hoping Reform can pick up 40-50 white working class Leave seats from Labour too and then try and do a deal with Farage after the election
Hungry for power. How the sausage is made
As the Tory leadership race inches towards its painfully tedious conclusion, we're all on the edge of our seats to find out which of them will win. Naturally.
Tory bigwig Robbie Gibb is backing Kemi Badenoch. But perhaps Kemi hasn't quite yet learned all the soft skills a political leader needs.
She was a guest at his birthday party this summer, but rather than buttering up her host and supporter in front of his guests, they were instead treated to the sight of Kemi (and her brood of hungry children) trailing Gibb around his garden.
Chanting MEAT! MEAT, ROBBIE!" at him until he stopped socialising and went and made sure her children were fed.
Harris 50% Trump 50%
https://www.activote.net/trump-narrowly-ahead-in-georgia/
A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:
an added curfew requirement of up to ten days
additional unpaid work of up to 20 hours
a Band A fine'
https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/outlines/breach-of-a-community-order/
It doesn't take account of and cannot measure: tickling the baby's toes, wider family support for children, fun, jokes, reading in bed, sunrises, good neighbours, metaphysical support structures like beliefs, worldviews and religion, most volunteering, goodwill, the kindness of a doctor's receptionist, coffee mornings, allotments, picking apples off your tree and giving them to others and a multitude of the things that make life meaningful.
The philosopher Stephen Clark call this the pre-political realm. It is the arena that makes most difference most of the time.
Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.
Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
I wonder what the motivation of the writer is.
In the UK, there's a much easier escape route, as seen upthread. That changes the strategic situation, for all it would make my ancestors spin in their graves on a personal level.
https://www.stratford-herald.com/news/man-jailed-after-bidford-theft-9308686/
As for the riots, 1000 have been arrested, 600 charged and a large number of those jailed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/14/far-right-riots-britain-arrests/
The one good thing the new government has done is also require police to investigate and prosecute those who steal goods even if less than £200
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ngk8yp3v4o
It is expected to hit 26C this weekend. 30C next weekend
The Okanagan valley. @TimS will be interested to know they make some really pleasant wine here
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
1) The same reason as anyone in a constituency might vote for a party that can't win. That's a substantial proportion of voters
2) Because they don't care who wins out of Jenrick and Badenoch so you vote for who you want
3) The best reason: it's not over till it is over, and there is an outside chance that (IMHO) Cleverly will squeeze through the middle.
If she wins and it turns out she's no good she'll either be removed as LOTO by Tory MP's or she'll lose the 2029 election and Labour will get another term. 🤷♂️
But they are what they are.
You’ve got a full length poster of her on the back of your bedroom door, don’t you?
I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.
"We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms
If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms
If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
To be fair, quite a lot of Physics PhDs wouldn’t know that either…
What some see as classy bi-partisan decency, others see as weakness and therefore senility.
Two world views that have plagued society basically forever.
In terms of functions in a FPTP system, no.
Canadian Liberals are a plausible party of government, the main alternative to the CanCons. British Liberals, bless 'em, aren't, which makes them an easier landing point for disillusioned Tories and Socialists.
Quoting has gone funny
It's not a general knowledge issue, the dialogue with GPT4 is apparently
Who is TC's mother?
- Mary Lee Pfeiffer
- Name one of MLP's offspring
- How the fuck should I know?
Because it hasn't grokked the mother son relationship and hasn't seen the tokens in the right order to answer question 2.
In 2010 here of course our Liberals campaigned left but ended up in government with the Tories under Clegg
Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.
All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.
Police do tend to stir for muggings, certainly if knives involved and burglaries if large amounts stolen
Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.
Anything else? Not really.
Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
Probably more nutritional value than Pepperoni.
It's not a general knowledge issue, the dialogue with GPT4 is apparently
Who is TC's mother?
- Mary Lee Pfeiffer
- Name one of MLP's offspring
- How the fuck should I know?
Because it hasn't grokked the mother son relationship and hasn't seen the tokens in the right order to answer question 2.
I stand by my original comment…
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms
If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
I mean... if that's your use-case then sure, it's not a great fit.
Tenants who stop paying rent can stay for three months under Labour
Reforms will ‘allow renters more time to repay arrears and remain in their homes’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buy-to-let/tenants-stay-properties-three-months-without-paying-labour/
https://x.com/alphafox78/status/1834043747694203151?s=61