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Why the Tories lost according to Tory members and the wider public – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 13,604

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Magnificent. I’m sooooo jealous.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,762

    This is going to stepmom buy to let landlords/landlords with mortgages

    Tenants who stop paying rent can stay for three months under Labour

    Reforms will ‘allow renters more time to repay arrears and remain in their homes’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buy-to-let/tenants-stay-properties-three-months-without-paying-labour/

    So surely you just have to charge 4 months rent as a deposit? Can't afford that? Sorry.
    Doesn't work you can't take rent out of the deposit under current laws so if doesn't help you pay your monthly bills
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999

    This is going to stepmom buy to let landlords/landlords with mortgages

    Tenants who stop paying rent can stay for three months under Labour

    Reforms will ‘allow renters more time to repay arrears and remain in their homes’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buy-to-let/tenants-stay-properties-three-months-without-paying-labour/

    Might lower homelessness rates though and of course they can still be evicted after that 3 month period has elapsed if still not paid rent
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462
    Pagan2 said:

    This is going to stepmom buy to let landlords/landlords with mortgages

    Tenants who stop paying rent can stay for three months under Labour

    Reforms will ‘allow renters more time to repay arrears and remain in their homes’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buy-to-let/tenants-stay-properties-three-months-without-paying-labour/

    So surely you just have to charge 4 months rent as a deposit? Can't afford that? Sorry.
    Doesn't work you can't take rent out of the deposit under current laws so if doesn't help you pay your monthly bills
    Yep: "Your landlord must put your deposit in a government-approved tenancy deposit scheme (TDP) if you rent your home" - gov.uk
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462
    Nigelb said:

    Why are the only adverts I now see on Twitter for extra wide shoes?

    I get dozens a day, every day for several weeks now.

    Does Elon's bollx AI think it knows something about my feet.

    Those fetish sites you're visiting ?
    I don't see what my pineapple fetish has to do with shoes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.

    A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.

    Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/12/liberal-democrat-conference-alistair-carmichael-sentences/

    And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
    They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
    But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
    Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.

    A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:

    an added curfew requirement of up to ten days
    additional unpaid work of up to 20 hours
    a Band A fine
    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/outlines/breach-of-a-community-order/
    Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced

    Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.

    Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
    https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/news/23249772.man-jailed-breach-community-order/
    https://www.stratford-herald.com/news/man-jailed-after-bidford-theft-9308686/
    I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
    If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
    I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
    And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.

    Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
    You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
    Police don't need to investigate themselves. The person running the community service will just tell their probation officer and if they breach again then the police will arrest them and the courts can jail them
    You think police arresting them != police turning out? Sorry go live in a poor estate for a year you will meet plenty that dodge these orders and still manage to be walking around and being a pain in the arse to everyone else....they are laughing at your laws, the law abiding in those areas are holding the law in total contempt for not protecting them.
    Yes, the police arrest where a crime committed, then they hand over to the CPS who charge and prosecute and judges sentence if convicted.

    Emotional rants about the problems of poor people in working class areas don't really resolve the matter and are a bit patronising and cliched, the laws are there to be enforced, the police have the powers to do so with ASBOs, criminal behaviour orders as well as charges for breaches of statutory offences. Not much more politicians can do
  • Nigelb said:

    Why are the only adverts I now see on Twitter for extra wide shoes?

    I get dozens a day, every day for several weeks now.

    Does Elon's bollx AI think it knows something about my feet.

    Those fetish sites you're visiting ?
    "Oooh, your socks are SOOOOO dirty!!!"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    A fair amount of time the code actually runs.

    Very often it does completely the wrong thing, when it runs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    ...

    Taz said:
    2,500 jobs gone in Port Talbot and now 500 in Grangemouth

    I thought Miliband was promising a green revolution of jobs, but he lost 3,000 this week alone
    Are you suggesting these jobs wouldn't have been lost under a Conservative Government?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,743
    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    That story turned out to be hype
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,758

    Entirely predictable. Parties nearly always lurch to the extreme after a long time in government before tacking back to the centre after a defeat - and this time there's the added electoral challenge of Reform making that option oh so enticing.

    But it'll fail because it will so strongly reinforce the tactical voting against them, even if they somehow manage to reuinite the right - which itself is unlikely because Reform and Tory voters are actually quite different political beasts and don't sit very naturally together.

    Take me as an unrepresentative sample of one (but maybe not *that* unrepresentative). Long-time Tory member, activist, official and briefly councillor. Offered the chance to return having resigned five years ago. Instead joined the Lib Dems.

    I’m a longterm LibDem subscriber too, although as I’m not active I feel more of a donor than a member. Glad to have you aboard David, have always found your posts - both here and on Twitter - to be thoughtful and insightful.

  • Kurt Andersen
    @KBAndersen

    Trump’s having a rally today in Tucson at the Linda Ronstadt Music Hall. Here’s her statement about him “bringing his hate show” to the city where she was born and lived half her life.

    Bonus fact—Ronstadt Hall holds 2300; guess they couldn’t fill the 8900-seat arena next door.

    https://x.com/KBAndersen/status/1834235120171028785

    Linda Ronstadt - You're No Good
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxgwjC3Rxi4
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    Trump rules out more debates because he won Tuesday's debate.

    ...by 92% to 8% by all accounts. Sorry, only by his account.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    Don't think so. Thick but also terrifyingly dangerous is a well understood combination.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623
    edited September 12

    Trump rules out more debates because he won Tuesday's debate.

    ...by 92% to 8% by all accounts. Sorry, only by his account.
    Teaching on Kant this afternoon, I was asked, 'was he insane?'

    Compared to the nonsense of Trump, the Categorical Imperative, however...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 269

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,766
    edited September 12
    FPT:
    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    kjh said:

    "On her record so far, Reeves is quickly turning out to be the worst Chancellor of modern times – and it won’t be long before there is talk about replacing her."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/11/rachel-reeves-is-the-most-incompetent-chancellor-in-decades/

    Says the Telegraph. Let's wait until she does cockups which inevitably will happen. You have a budget in a month. Honestly the impatience of people to show Labour are failing is laughable. There are 4 to 5 years to go. Can we not wait a few more months until something really happens.
    I voted Labour and have a bit of Buyers remorse at the moment but it is far too early to castigate Rachel Reeves.

    I agree with the WFA cut, I do not see that she has done anything wrong so far apart from, possibly, the way it was handled.

    TBH I get why the Tories and their supporters cannot wait to try to show labour is failing us. If would be no different if the boot was on the other foot.
    The Tory press is doing exactly what you’d expect it to do, and it’s perfectly within its rights to do so. Of course the Telegraph is going to say things like Reeves is the worse chancellor in history. It may well be working: Labour have lost the spin battles since July.

    Equally it makes sense for supporters of Labour to position this as desperate bleating by a right wing press in denial. Which might also work a bit.
    I don't have a great sense of spin battles being either lost or won atm.
    Labour will dip a fair bit in the polls and Tories will claim success. Tories have forgotten how to govern. Year 1, clear the decks, announce anything bad. Year 4 spread the jam.
    That of course supposes that there is any jam in Year 4, which given Labour's extraordinary anti-growth policies on tax, Net Zero, regulation, well everything except a bit on housing, is very unlikely. And that's assuming there aren't any large external shocks.

    Also it's by no means even certain, as the Conservatives found out in 1997, that the electorate will thank you for good economic news. If the narrative has set in that you're crap, it's incredibly difficult to shift.
    Why do you think they've made growth politically totemic if their policies are anti growth?
    That's a very interesting question.

    I'd say probably a combination of reasons.

    Firstly they believe the fantasy of "green growth", "green jobs", etc., peddled by Miliband and others - the idea that jobs lost by massively increasing regulatory burdens will somehow be outweighed by jobs created in elsewhere in the economy to implement growth. Whereas, of course, the opposite has been and will continue to be the case - our industry is shafted with the highest energy costs in the world, while most of the "green" manufacturing jobs, such as they are, have gone overseas.

    Secondly, neither Starmer nor his Chancellor have ever earned a penny from business or been involved in supply side economic policy. Reeves' only experience was as a tea girl in the Bank of England, which deals with demand side policy, not supply side, whereas the obstacles to growth in this country are all on the supply side. This lack of experience means they simply don't understand the importance, and fragility, of business confidence and light regulation in economic growth.

    Thirdly, Starmer in particular is a technocrat, and like all technocrats of both parties - Heseltine, Gordon Brown, Ted Heath, etc. - completely overestimates the ability of the government to promote economic growth by meddling with the market. They think that government can create good and viable businesses (rather than union-dominated obsolete wrecks) and that a subsidy here or there will make business more effective, rather than just encouraging business to seek more subsidies as that's much easier than increasing sales and cutting costs.

    Fourthly, related, Starmer is a lawyer, and like all lawyers has a tendency to assume that if the government issues a law, it will happen, and the law, being issued by him, must be good and so will never have negative side-effects. Whereas, in fact, all laws have negative side-effects, which very often outweigh whatever good comes of them (see lockdowns as the most egregious recent example).

    Fifthly, he may have believed his own propaganda that leaving the Single Market had a massive negative effect on the UK economy, and that if he turned up smiling in Brussels they would fall over themselves to give him an amazing deal which would get things back to the Nirvana of 2015.

    Finally, of course, there is the electoral reason. The electorate realises, however dimly, that the economy hasn't done well over the last decade and a half and he needs to pretend he has some answers.
    Hmm, most of that is standard right wing 'small state' fare with a dash of climate scepticism and some special pleading on behalf of Brexit. You can't expect a Labour government to be driven by those beliefs.
    Nah, it's mostly basic economics combined with decades of experience in economic policy-making. It's hardly rocket science: markets allocate resources better than government, regulation has huge costs, often unintended and always underestiated, and people who've spent their whole working lives in the public sector won't understand industry or finance.

    Obviously a Labour government doesn't understand basic economics - that's not a revelation. Viewing the productive and enterprising and the private sector generally as an ATM for their pet projects and client groups is hardly likely to promote growth. And the last government was rarely great on that metric. But claiming to be pro-growth while simultaneously screwing over industry is positively Orwellian.
  • Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    If you really want to worry about AI, the drone war in Ukraine is getting to the point where the solution to jamming is to let the drones find their own targets: using AI…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    If you really want to worry about AI, the drone war in Ukraine is getting to the point where the solution to jamming is to let the drones find their own targets: using AI…
    Good to see you around, hope you are keeping OK?
  • New York Times - Trump Says He Won’t Debate Harris Again

    Donald Trump posted on Truth Social two days after a face-off with Kamala Harris in which he was widely criticized for delivering a poor performance. Harris’s campaign said it raised $47 million in the 24 hours after the debate.

    SSI - So DJT is frit of KH . . . surprise, surprise!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,267
    edited September 12
    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I was blown away both by the cricket and the quality of the stream: at least as good as the BBC used to put on when they had test matches (and indeed Sky back when I subscribed), decent commentary, including Vic Marks, and all for 2-3k viewers.

    ETA This was on YouTube.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623

    New York Times - Trump Says He Won’t Debate Harris Again

    Donald Trump posted on Truth Social two days after a face-off with Kamala Harris in which he was widely criticized for delivering a poor performance. Harris’s campaign said it raised $47 million in the 24 hours after the debate.

    SSI - So DJT is frit of KH . . . surprise, surprise!

    He doesn't have much to gain by doing so.

    Realistically, he's not likely to improve on that, and he doesn't want to cause even more unease among soft republicans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623
    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I'm a good Glos man, but I will cheering Somerset on. Would be great to see them win the Championship at last.

    That's without disrespect to Surrey, by the way, who do a lot of good for English cricket as well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    If you really want to worry about AI, the drone war in Ukraine is getting to the point where the solution to jamming is to let the drones find their own targets: using AI…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Variety

  • ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    If you really want to worry about AI, the drone war in Ukraine is getting to the point where the solution to jamming is to let the drones find their own targets: using AI…
    Good to see you around, hope you are keeping OK?
    Had a minor op last week that ended up with a few complications, so I’m trying to set cover work for classes I still haven’t seen. Not my best star to a school year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    If you really want to worry about AI, the drone war in Ukraine is getting to the point where the solution to jamming is to let the drones find their own targets: using AI…
    Good to see you around, hope you are keeping OK?
    Had a minor op last week that ended up with a few complications, so I’m trying to set cover work for classes I still haven’t seen. Not my best star to a school year.
    Ouch, that is tough on both counts. Hope the recovery is rapid.

    (One thing for those who talk about how teachers have it easy - a teacher on sick leave having to keep working...)
  • ...

    Taz said:
    2,500 jobs gone in Port Talbot and now 500 in Grangemouth

    I thought Miliband was promising a green revolution of jobs, but he lost 3,000 this week alone
    Are you suggesting these jobs wouldn't have been lost under a Conservative Government?
    Not the point - losing 3,000 jobs is not consistent with Milibands mantra of green jobs
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,743

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    A fair amount of time the code actually runs.

    Very often it does completely the wrong thing, when it runs.
    mercator said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    Don't think so. Thick but also terrifyingly dangerous is a well understood combination.
    No, this is new, and not at all well understood.
    And it’s only early days.

    And there’s a huge economic incentive to make instances of it ubiquitous.
  • ydoethur said:

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I'm a good Glos man, but I will cheering Somerset on. Would be great to see them win the Championship at last.

    That's without disrespect to Surrey, by the way, who do a lot of good for English cricket as well.
    https://youtu.be/B8HVWY0X9qU?si=KYmsnd1AP237Pbfm

    Highlights of today’s play at Taunton.

    Hope you are OK!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462

    New York Times - Trump Says He Won’t Debate Harris Again

    Donald Trump posted on Truth Social two days after a face-off with Kamala Harris in which he was widely criticized for delivering a poor performance. Harris’s campaign said it raised $47 million in the 24 hours after the debate.

    SSI - So DJT is frit of KH . . . surprise, surprise!

    Good.

    There's always a chance she'll fuck up if doing another one just because anyone can have a screwy moment in these situations.

    As Carville has been saying: "Just keep saying when's the next debate" knowing there wont be one and also as an answer to why there is no long and tedious one-to-one interviews with CNN etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462
    James Carville interview on the debate and what Harris does next:

    https://conversationswithbillkristol.org/conversation/james-carville-on-harris-v-trump-after-the-debate-home-stretch/

    Really top stuff although you have to strain sometimes to get through the olde southern accent.

    Public couldn't give a shit he reckons about these long one-on-ones the media desperate for her to do. They just wanna know when the next debate is. Keep 'em on that he reckons and maybe do a policy speech or two to keep media busy with analysis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623

    ydoethur said:

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I'm a good Glos man, but I will cheering Somerset on. Would be great to see them win the Championship at last.

    That's without disrespect to Surrey, by the way, who do a lot of good for English cricket as well.
    https://youtu.be/B8HVWY0X9qU?si=KYmsnd1AP237Pbfm

    Highlights of today’s play at Taunton.

    Hope you are OK!
    Not too bad. Currently wasting much time that could be spent on more useful things chasing British Gas and their equally criminal solicitors Womble Bond Dickinson for their various misdemeanours, which will unfortunately swallow up my day off tomorrow, but the business still earns an honest crust and I've dodged the VAT threshold last year.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    If you really want to worry about AI, the drone war in Ukraine is getting to the point where the solution to jamming is to let the drones find their own targets: using AI…
    Good to see you around, hope you are keeping OK?
    Had a minor op last week that ended up with a few complications, so I’m trying to set cover work for classes I still haven’t seen. Not my best star to a school year.
    Ouch, that is tough on both counts. Hope the recovery is rapid.

    (One thing for those who talk about how teachers have it easy - a teacher on sick leave having to keep working...)
    They gave me some interesting pain killers today, so my quality of work might go down if I have to take them.

    School is being pretty supportive so far: I’ve been told not to come back until I’m better.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I'm a good Glos man, but I will cheering Somerset on. Would be great to see them win the Championship at last.

    That's without disrespect to Surrey, by the way, who do a lot of good for English cricket as well.
    https://youtu.be/B8HVWY0X9qU?si=KYmsnd1AP237Pbfm

    Highlights of today’s play at Taunton.

    Hope you are OK!
    Not too bad. Currently wasting much time that could be spent on more useful things chasing British Gas and their equally criminal solicitors Womble Bond Dickinson for their various misdemeanours, which will unfortunately swallow up my day off tomorrow, but the business still earns an honest crust and I've dodged the VAT threshold last year.
    I found British Gas had been charging me a service fee for both my old and new houses for about eight months. Much to my surprise it only took one (quite long) phone call to sort it out: I even got a refund!
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 269

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I was blown away both by the cricket and the quality of the stream: at least as good as the BBC used to put on when they had test matches (and indeed Sky back when I subscribed), decent commentary, including Vic Marks, and all for 2-3k viewers.

    ETA This was on YouTube.
    Reportedly they got up to 16K, the youtube footage usually has the local radio commentary and the quality varies. Essex get Don Topley and at most 2 cameras.
  • Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I was blown away both by the cricket and the quality of the stream: at least as good as the BBC used to put on when they had test matches (and indeed Sky back when I subscribed), decent commentary, including Vic Marks, and all for 2-3k viewers.

    ETA This was on YouTube.
    Reportedly they got up to 16K, the youtube footage usually has the local radio commentary and the quality varies. Essex get Don Topley and at most 2 cameras.
    I will definitely be watching more next summer, and what is left of this season.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623

    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I was blown away both by the cricket and the quality of the stream: at least as good as the BBC used to put on when they had test matches (and indeed Sky back when I subscribed), decent commentary, including Vic Marks, and all for 2-3k viewers.

    ETA This was on YouTube.
    Reportedly they got up to 16K, the youtube footage usually has the local radio commentary and the quality varies. Essex get Don Topley and at most 2 cameras.
    I will definitely be watching more next summer, and what is left of this season.
    There is talk of putting them behind paywalls next summer.

    While I can see the logic of that when several counties are really struggling financially, I hope the ECB have the sense to put at least one match per round on YouTube still. It's worth a million Hundreds in terms of getting the game out there.
  • ydoethur said:

    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    Completely off topic: I’ve been watching Somerset play Surrey in the county championship. Good start by Somerset but heading fo a draw after rain today, so I switched to something else. Just seen that they won with Archie Vaughan getting 12 wickets. Serves me right for giving up too early: I missed seven wickets in about an hour.

    There have been a lot of tight finishes in the CC in the last few years for the top clubs. Across the 2 divisions there should be enough exciting passages of play to put together a highlights package. It's a sign of a team right at the top of their game when they have the self-belief to force a win like today. Essex had it a few years ago when they were dominant, I hope Somerset manage to overtake Surrey in the last 2 matches.
    I was blown away both by the cricket and the quality of the stream: at least as good as the BBC used to put on when they had test matches (and indeed Sky back when I subscribed), decent commentary, including Vic Marks, and all for 2-3k viewers.

    ETA This was on YouTube.
    Reportedly they got up to 16K, the youtube footage usually has the local radio commentary and the quality varies. Essex get Don Topley and at most 2 cameras.
    I will definitely be watching more next summer, and what is left of this season.
    There is talk of putting them behind paywalls next summer.

    While I can see the logic of that when several counties are really struggling financially, I hope the ECB have the sense to put at least one match per round on YouTube still. It's worth a million Hundreds in terms of getting the game out there.
    If they are not stupid about the price, I might pay for it: the quality was really good, both in the he cricket and in the stream itself.
  • So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,674
    viewcode said:

    Two months ago Steve Baker dissected the loss, and in the leadership election they just ignored everything he said and ploughed on regardless... :(

    "Steve Baker on the Tory implosion and how the party rebuilds | SpectatorTV"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcrBV1JOd0Y

    Steve Baker is best ignored I'm afraid. He has become a rather sad thing these days. My feeling is that he was leant on very hard by the Sunkites to change his Brexity ways - coincidentally around the time of his self-confessed mental health issues.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Nigelb said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    A fair amount of time the code actually runs.

    Very often it does completely the wrong thing, when it runs.
    mercator said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foss said:

    mercator said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic, but OpenAI have released a new model which they claim :

    In our tests, the next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology. We also found that it excels in math and coding. In a qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), GPT-4o correctly solved only 13% of problems, while the reasoning model scored 83%. Their coding abilities were evaluated in contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces competitions

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/

    I have my severe doubts, but I'll give it a whirl tomorrow.

    "We test GPT-4 on pairs of questions like, “Who is Tom Cruise’s mother?” and, “Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son?” for 1,000 different celebrities and their actual parents. We find many cases where a model answers the first question (“Who is ’s parent?”) correctly, but not the second. We hypothesize this is because the pretraining data includes fewer examples of the ordering where the parent precedes the celebrity (eg “Mary Lee Pfeiffer’s son is Tom Cruise”)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/06/ai-llms

    If it can't do this it is fundamentally an idiot, never mind how it performs in benchmark tests
    I have been told of a case where an idiot coded using AI. He got binned and all the code as well. Massive mistakes all over the place.
    I've found it OK for boilerplate stuff when I can't be arsed typing.

    Though most decent tools will do this kind of thing for you anyway, it is at least vaguely useful.

    Anything else? Not really.


    Can they not get the AI to run its own generated code to see if it actually works?
    That kind of thing makes people twitchy - Research AI model unexpectedly attempts to modify its own code to extend runtime
    Money quote,
    … AI models do not need to be "AGI" or "self-aware" (both hypothetical concepts at the present) to be dangerous if allowed to write and execute code unsupervised. Such systems could break existing critical infrastructure or potentially create malware, even if unintentionally...

    See also.
    https://x.com/RoboTeddy/status/1834298103098474733

    The “it’s not real intelligence” crowd are missing the point.
    Don't think so. Thick but also terrifyingly dangerous is a well understood combination.
    No, this is new, and not at all well understood.
    And it’s only early days.

    And there’s a huge economic incentive to make instances of it ubiquitous.
    OK. It seems to me to be eerily in line with predictions made in fiction by Gibson (1984) and paperclip maximiser thought experiments made by lots of people since.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,960
    Kamala's up for it...


    Kamala Harris
    @KamalaHarris
    Two nights ago, Donald Trump and I had our first debate.

    We owe it to the voters to have another debate.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    https://www.thetimes.com/article/5b3059ce-6734-4a11-a13d-f451625596c8?shareToken=2dd274adb56fabb12469b724f1b60e2d

    "The racist conspiracy theorist who could derail Trump’s campaign

    Laura Loomer, a self-described white supremacist, is believed to be the source of Trump’s claim that Haitians eat pet dogs and cats."

    Seriously riveting. Trump under the spell of a woman so mad and nasty that even his "team" have noticed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,604
    GIN1138 said:

    Kamala's up for it...


    Kamala Harris
    @KamalaHarris
    Two nights ago, Donald Trump and I had our first debate.

    We owe it to the voters to have another debate.

    Not a cat in Springfield's chance of that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    edited September 12
    'Former prime minister Theresa May, or Baroness May of Maidenhead, has just been introduced to the House of Lords' or was earlier today
    https://x.com/Josh_Self_/status/1834174053633896655
  • ...

    Taz said:
    2,500 jobs gone in Port Talbot and now 500 in Grangemouth

    I thought Miliband was promising a green revolution of jobs, but he lost 3,000 this week alone
    Are you suggesting these jobs wouldn't have been lost under a Conservative Government?
    Grangemouth had the possibility of staying open with fresh investment. But the messaging from Miliband that he wants to destroy the Oil and Gas industry has put paid to that.

    Contrast with Norway where the ONS trade show in Stavanger a couple of weeks ago was attended by both the Prime Minister and King of Norway. This follows a report in August from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate that said that continued exploration was worth $1.4 trillion dollars to the Norwegian economy.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,762
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.

    A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.

    Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/12/liberal-democrat-conference-alistair-carmichael-sentences/

    And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
    They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
    But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
    Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.

    A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:

    an added curfew requirement of up to ten days
    additional unpaid work of up to 20 hours
    a Band A fine
    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/outlines/breach-of-a-community-order/
    Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced

    Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.

    Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
    https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/news/23249772.man-jailed-breach-community-order/
    https://www.stratford-herald.com/news/man-jailed-after-bidford-theft-9308686/
    I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
    If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
    I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
    And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.

    Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
    You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
    Police don't need to investigate themselves. The person running the community service will just tell their probation officer and if they breach again then the police will arrest them and the courts can jail them
    You think police arresting them != police turning out? Sorry go live in a poor estate for a year you will meet plenty that dodge these orders and still manage to be walking around and being a pain in the arse to everyone else....they are laughing at your laws, the law abiding in those areas are holding the law in total contempt for not protecting them.
    Yes, the police arrest where a crime committed, then they hand over to the CPS who charge and prosecute and judges sentence if convicted.

    Emotional rants about the problems of poor people in working class areas don't really resolve the matter and are a bit patronising and cliched, the laws are there to be enforced, the police have the powers to do so with ASBOs, criminal behaviour orders as well as charges for breaches of statutory offences. Not much more politicians can do
    Spoken as someone who doesn't live in a poor area. I am sure your policing is just fine in your leafy suburb
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 213

    Ed Milliband seems to be concerned today and very worried that Grangemouth oil refinery may close.

    Inevitably, twitter economists have spent the last few hours pointing out that closing oil and gas is what he wants.

    the biggest hypocrite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Thousands of burglars and shoplifters should be spared jail, the Liberal Democrats have said.

    A motion at the party’s annual conference in Brighton next week will urge Sir Keir Starmer to scrap most sentences of less than a year. Rishi Sunak’s government had drafted similar plans to ditch the majority of jail terms under 12 months to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis.

    Under the Liberal Democrat proposals, offenders including burglars, shoplifters and thieves would walk free on the condition that they carry out unpaid community work."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/12/liberal-democrat-conference-alistair-carmichael-sentences/

    And when they don't bother turning up for community service which a large percentage will?
    They can be sent to jail if they continue to breach community orders
    But they won't do just as they don't currently. I know quite a few that got community service that never bothered doing it. Nothing happened. Next time they were in court more community service which they also didn't bother doing....its a joke for them
    Wilful and consistent non-compliance may result in the offender being re-sentenced and receiving a custodial sentence.

    A breach that otherwise involves a high level of compliance could result in one of the following penalties:

    an added curfew requirement of up to ten days
    additional unpaid work of up to 20 hours
    a Band A fine
    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/outlines/breach-of-a-community-order/
    Doesn't matter what the guidelines say if they enforced

    Those among us who do things such as burglary, car theft , shop lifting, mugging etc know full well that 99% of the time the police won't even bother investigating and the occasional time they do get caught they will be told they are a naughty boy and not to do it again with something like community service for which turning up is optional because nothing will happen if they don't.

    Your attitude is typical of politicians....we wrote a law so its all fixed....no it isn't unless that law is enforced and it damn well isn't enforced. That is why you get things like the recent rioters who have already been in court on 20 or more occasions....they are laughing at your laws. Those amongst us that have to live among them rather than a middle class leafy suburb though have to put up with their criminal ways
    https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/news/23249772.man-jailed-breach-community-order/
    https://www.stratford-herald.com/news/man-jailed-after-bidford-theft-9308686/
    I didn't say it never happened I pointed out it doesn't happen in the vast majority of cases
    If you consistently breach community orders than jail can and often is the outcome as I posted
    I know at least 5 people who have breached them, 2 of them have breached multiple orders if it was often the case at least a couple of them would have fallen foul of it. People who live in poorer areas like I have most of my life will also know people who are laughing at your assertion. The word you were looking for is occasionally
    And they received no sanction at all? of course not and if they continued to breach those sanctions after that they would be jailed.

    Now certain oiks may wish to push their luck and commit continual low level crime and not comply with community orders and breach subsequent sanctions but eventually their luck will run out and a judge will jail them
    You are naive, when the police don't stir for burglary, car theft, muggings....you think they are turning out because some scally didn't bother doing his community service....bridge sales are that way ->
    Police don't need to investigate themselves. The person running the community service will just tell their probation officer and if they breach again then the police will arrest them and the courts can jail them
    You think police arresting them != police turning out? Sorry go live in a poor estate for a year you will meet plenty that dodge these orders and still manage to be walking around and being a pain in the arse to everyone else....they are laughing at your laws, the law abiding in those areas are holding the law in total contempt for not protecting them.
    Yes, the police arrest where a crime committed, then they hand over to the CPS who charge and prosecute and judges sentence if convicted.

    Emotional rants about the problems of poor people in working class areas don't really resolve the matter and are a bit patronising and cliched, the laws are there to be enforced, the police have the powers to do so with ASBOs, criminal behaviour orders as well as charges for breaches of statutory offences. Not much more politicians can do
    Spoken as someone who doesn't live in a poor area. I am sure your policing is just fine in your leafy suburb
    I live in a rural hamlet not a leafy suburb and you certainly see more police in poor areas than round here. The law applies the same regardless where ever you live
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,278

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
    Septums may be deviated, perverts are deviant.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    ...
    ydoethur said:

    Trump rules out more debates because he won Tuesday's debate.

    ...by 92% to 8% by all accounts. Sorry, only by his account.
    Teaching on Kant this afternoon, I was asked, 'was he insane?'

    Compared to the nonsense of Trump, the Categorical Imperative, however...
    Immanuel and Donald. A right pair of Kants. Philosophers, both.

    Not much enlightenment from Trump mind.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,960
    edited September 12
    Daily Rant headline:

    The VERY risqué row behind Kate and William's latest video: Royals filmed on a NUDIST beach which locals branded a 'haven for swingers and perverts

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13834095/The-unsavoury-row-engulfing-stunning-backdrop-Kate-William-announce-milestones-Holkham-Bay-locals-branded-beach-haven-swingers-perverts-went-war-nudists.html

    My comment: Where is this? 😂
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    carnforth said:

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
    Septums may be deviated, perverts are deviant.
    “I think you're some kind of deviated prevert. I think General Ripper found out about your preversion, and that you were organizing some kind of mutiny of preverts.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,743
    NC is clearly a high priority.

    This is the line in Charlotte, North Carolina FOUR hours before VP Kamala Harris is set to speak at a rally.
    https://x.com/Victorshi2020/status/1834272615222960343
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    With due deference to Smithson pere's views on the word, I would like to point out that "Trump-Vance" is an anagram of "C**t-Revamp"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,960
    HYUFD said:

    'Former prime minister Theresa May, or Baroness May of Maidenhead, has just been introduced to the House of Lords' or was earlier today
    https://x.com/Josh_Self_/status/1834174053633896655

    Glum buckets on the Lords and in Downing St. right now! 😂
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    "It's good to talk"

    Bob Hoskins
  • ...

    ydoethur said:

    Trump rules out more debates because he won Tuesday's debate.

    ...by 92% to 8% by all accounts. Sorry, only by his account.
    Teaching on Kant this afternoon, I was asked, 'was he insane?'

    Compared to the nonsense of Trump, the Categorical Imperative, however...
    Immanuel and Donald. A right pair of Kants. Philosophers, both.

    Not much enlightenment from Trump mind.
    I have it on good authority that Immanuel Kant was a real pissant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623
    GIN1138 said:

    Daily Rant headline:

    The VERY risqué row behind Kate and William's latest video: Royals filmed on a NUDIST beach which locals branded a 'haven for swingers and perverts

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13834095/The-unsavoury-row-engulfing-stunning-backdrop-Kate-William-announce-milestones-Holkham-Bay-locals-branded-beach-haven-swingers-perverts-went-war-nudists.html

    My comment: Where is this? 😂

    Where there's a Wills, there's a Gin?

    (Some years ago, a fake brown sign of 'Official Dogging Area' was put up at Birdlip with an - ahem - appropriate drawing. Cheltenham Council had a massive sense of humour failure and took it down.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623

    carnforth said:

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
    Septums may be deviated, perverts are deviant.
    “I think you're some kind of deviated prevert. I think General Ripper found out about your preversion, and that you were organizing some kind of mutiny of preverts.”
    The admiration some people have for Trump definitely counts as a Strange love.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,278
    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,278

    carnforth said:

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
    Septums may be deviated, perverts are deviant.
    “I think you're some kind of deviated prevert. I think General Ripper found out about your preversion, and that you were organizing some kind of mutiny of preverts.”
    I stand corrected!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,604
    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    GIN1138 said:

    Daily Rant headline:

    The VERY risqué row behind Kate and William's latest video: Royals filmed on a NUDIST beach which locals branded a 'haven for swingers and perverts

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13834095/The-unsavoury-row-engulfing-stunning-backdrop-Kate-William-announce-milestones-Holkham-Bay-locals-branded-beach-haven-swingers-perverts-went-war-nudists.html

    My comment: Where is this? 😂

    The video is quite something. A lot of it is shot in some rather dull forestry with a logstack of the sort which must by law have warning signs saying DON'T CLIMB ON LOG STACKS all round it and there's him and her and the three veg draped over the top of it. You would expect the camera man if nobody else to have the sense to advise against this.
  • carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
    Can you imagine SKS hosting any sort of Christmas shindig?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,743
    Arizona Mayor John Giles (R):

    “I think the time has come for us as AZ Republicans to admit the obvious...which is that our party’s nominee is not qualified for office and that we need to vote for the adult in the room, and that is Kamala Harris.”

    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1834291199144067386
  • ...

    Taz said:
    2,500 jobs gone in Port Talbot and now 500 in Grangemouth

    I thought Miliband was promising a green revolution of jobs, but he lost 3,000 this week alone
    Are you suggesting these jobs wouldn't have been lost under a Conservative Government?
    Grangemouth had the possibility of staying open with fresh investment. But the messaging from Miliband that he wants to destroy the Oil and Gas industry has put paid to that.

    Contrast with Norway where the ONS trade show in Stavanger a couple of weeks ago was attended by both the Prime Minister and King of Norway. This follows a report in August from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate that said that continued exploration was worth $1.4 trillion dollars to the Norwegian economy.
    That's a whole second sovereign wealth fund!
    Or a new sovereign wealth fund if you don't already have one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462
    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,278

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
    Can you imagine SKS hosting any sort of Christmas shindig?
    Is Christmas on a Friday?
  • carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
    Can you imagine SKS hosting any sort of Christmas shindig?
    Dunno, a few beers, a curry, like-minded folk and Bob's your uncle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
    Can you imagine SKS hosting any sort of Christmas shindig?
    Dunno, a few beers, a curry, like-minded folk and Bob's your uncle.
    We've had our fill of parties at No.10 thank you very much.
  • carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
    Can you imagine SKS hosting any sort of Christmas shindig?
    Is Christmas on a Friday?
    Wednesday this year.
  • HYUFD said:

    'Former prime minister Theresa May, or Baroness May of Maidenhead, has just been introduced to the House of Lords' or was earlier today
    https://x.com/Josh_Self_/status/1834174053633896655

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    35m
    Trump on the debate: "As everyone saw two nights ago, we had a monumental victory."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1834340418227462401
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910

    HYUFD said:

    'Former prime minister Theresa May, or Baroness May of Maidenhead, has just been introduced to the House of Lords' or was earlier today
    https://x.com/Josh_Self_/status/1834174053633896655

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    At least we can see why she has been created Baroness. No so for a certain twenties blond.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,901
    mercator said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Daily Rant headline:

    The VERY risqué row behind Kate and William's latest video: Royals filmed on a NUDIST beach which locals branded a 'haven for swingers and perverts

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13834095/The-unsavoury-row-engulfing-stunning-backdrop-Kate-William-announce-milestones-Holkham-Bay-locals-branded-beach-haven-swingers-perverts-went-war-nudists.html

    My comment: Where is this? 😂

    The video is quite something. A lot of it is shot in some rather dull forestry with a logstack of the sort which must by law have warning signs saying DON'T CLIMB ON LOG STACKS all round it and there's him and her and the three veg draped over the top of it. You would expect the camera man if nobody else to have the sense to advise against this.
    One of the few rules that governed my childhood wanderings.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I hope they're not planning any Christmas parties on cold days...
    Can you imagine SKS hosting any sort of Christmas shindig?
    Is Christmas on a Friday?
    Wednesday this year.
    Middle of the new four day working week.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,799

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
    If we have a bad winter this could really cause the government a huge amount of trouble. I genuinely do not understand what they are up to. The only thing I can imagine is that having painted themselves into a corner with ruling out rises in the major taxes they are left with some very poor choices. Which is exactly what you would expect to happen after swearing off doing anything sensible with the main fiscal levers. But this is all so predictably obvious that I find it hard to believe they didn't see it coming. Surely they aren't that incompetent?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    It's because they were dogshit. Now Starmer is too but he wasn't the government for the last 14 years
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462
    glw said:

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
    If we have a bad winter this could really cause the government a huge amount of trouble. I genuinely do not understand what they are up to. The only thing I can imagine is that having painted themselves into a corner with ruling out rises in the major taxes they are left with some very poor choices. Which is exactly what you would expect to happen after swearing off doing anything sensible with the main fiscal levers. But this is all so predictably obvious that I find it hard to believe they didn't see it coming. Surely they aren't that incompetent?
    To me it seems like a panic response. Reeves was bounced into this by Treasury immediately after they showed her a load of very bad news about debts and she then told them she is settling the rail disputes by coughing up a ton of £ etc etc. Same old crap from the Treasury officials.

    It makes no sense to do this outside of a wider Budget on 30th Oct.

    Why - suddenly - in late July did they need to save £2b approx over next few months ie. dump WFA and social care cap?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462

    Republican Voters Against Trump
    @AccountableGOP
    ·
    12m

    Trump: "The migrants are walking off with the town's geese. They've taken the geese. You know where the geese are in the park, in the lake, and even walking off with their pets. My dog's been taken. My dog's gone."
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    35m
    Trump on the debate: "As everyone saw two nights ago, we had a monumental victory."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1834340418227462401

    He’ll probably still win the election, but I’m starting to hope - forlorn hope maybe, but you never know - that as president he’ll be so far down the rabbit hole, and/or in such advanced cognitive decline, that his presidency will be more of the clown show than a properly thought out programme to wrest control of the US democratic system. We’re at the stage where they’re better with a doolally président Trump than a compus mentis one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,604


    Republican Voters Against Trump
    @AccountableGOP
    ·
    12m

    Trump: "The migrants are walking off with the town's geese. They've taken the geese. You know where the geese are in the park, in the lake, and even walking off with their pets. My dog's been taken. My dog's gone."

    "My goose is cooked!"
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,024
    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Daily Rant headline:

    The VERY risqué row behind Kate and William's latest video: Royals filmed on a NUDIST beach which locals branded a 'haven for swingers and perverts

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13834095/The-unsavoury-row-engulfing-stunning-backdrop-Kate-William-announce-milestones-Holkham-Bay-locals-branded-beach-haven-swingers-perverts-went-war-nudists.html

    My comment: Where is this? 😂

    The video is quite something. A lot of it is shot in some rather dull forestry with a logstack of the sort which must by law have warning signs saying DON'T CLIMB ON LOG STACKS all round it and there's him and her and the three veg draped over the top of it. You would expect the camera man if nobody else to have the sense to advise against this.
    One of the few rules that governed my childhood wanderings.
    Eabhal, as you're around: I'm after a view on the North of Scotland. What's Aviemore like these days? My parents used to sort of avoid it and I always got the impression it was made of concrete, but perhaps that's in the past now as Google Maps makes it look not unpleasant. Still a resort rather than an authentic small town, but I can get past that. I'd quite like to get to the North at half term and Aviemore appears to have ten times more accommodation than anywhere else.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I Think the Guardian are confused. They are taking away £300 from pensioners not switching their electricity and gas off.

    As I understand it by then they will have an extra £1000 which they might or might not choose to spend on heating.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,568
    TimS said:


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    35m
    Trump on the debate: "As everyone saw two nights ago, we had a monumental victory."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1834340418227462401

    He’ll probably still win the election, but I’m starting to hope - forlorn hope maybe, but you never know - that as president he’ll be so far down the rabbit hole, and/or in such advanced cognitive decline, that his presidency will be more of the clown show than a properly thought out programme to wrest control of the US democratic system. We’re at the stage where they’re better with a doolally président Trump than a compus mentis one.
    Not really. The threat is the people behind him. Reagan was half senile yet did OK because he had a decent team. Trump won't have.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,278
    Roger said:

    carnforth said:

    "Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/12/no-winter-fuel-payments-impact-assessment-was-carried-out-no-10-admits

    Exactly what they used to criticise the tories for.

    I Think the Guardian are confused. They are taking away £300 from pensioners not switching their electricity and gas off.

    As I understand it by then they will have an extra £1000 which they might or might not choose to spend on heating.
    The extra thousand is to make them equal with inflation. It's par.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,462
    TimS said:


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    35m
    Trump on the debate: "As everyone saw two nights ago, we had a monumental victory."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1834340418227462401

    He’ll probably still win the election, but I’m starting to hope - forlorn hope maybe, but you never know - that as president he’ll be so far down the rabbit hole, and/or in such advanced cognitive decline, that his presidency will be more of the clown show than a properly thought out programme to wrest control of the US democratic system. We’re at the stage where they’re better with a doolally président Trump than a compus mentis one.
    I fear there are very dark people and forces around him who will take advantage of him being too unwell to be the executive in charge in order to further their plan for Gilead meets Crypto meets Nurembourg.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    TimS said:


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    35m
    Trump on the debate: "As everyone saw two nights ago, we had a monumental victory."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1834340418227462401

    He’ll probably still win the election, but I’m starting to hope - forlorn hope maybe, but you never know - that as president he’ll be so far down the rabbit hole, and/or in such advanced cognitive decline, that his presidency will be more of the clown show than a properly thought out programme to wrest control of the US democratic system. We’re at the stage where they’re better with a doolally président Trump than a compus mentis one.
    At the moment Harris probably has the edge overall but it is very close. If Trump went doolally it would then be Vance mostly running the show of course as his VP
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,228
    mercator said:

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
    Nobody should ever eat a doner kebab unless they are absolutely certain they know who the doner was.
    Named after the Donner Party, as I'm sure you know.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437

    Pagan2 said:

    This is going to stepmom buy to let landlords/landlords with mortgages

    Tenants who stop paying rent can stay for three months under Labour

    Reforms will ‘allow renters more time to repay arrears and remain in their homes’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buy-to-let/tenants-stay-properties-three-months-without-paying-labour/

    So surely you just have to charge 4 months rent as a deposit? Can't afford that? Sorry.
    Doesn't work you can't take rent out of the deposit under current laws so if doesn't help you pay your monthly bills
    Yep: "Your landlord must put your deposit in a government-approved tenancy deposit scheme (TDP) if you rent your home" - gov.uk
    Ah, yes, thanks, I'd forgotten about that.

    That's going to totally screw up the lower end of the market.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,568
    The average daily max for Colorado Springs on 12 Sept is 65F; today we’ve been pushing 90F. The media suggested this morning that today might be an all-time temperature record for Colorado on 12 Sept.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437
    edited September 12
    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Daily Rant headline:

    The VERY risqué row behind Kate and William's latest video: Royals filmed on a NUDIST beach which locals branded a 'haven for swingers and perverts

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13834095/The-unsavoury-row-engulfing-stunning-backdrop-Kate-William-announce-milestones-Holkham-Bay-locals-branded-beach-haven-swingers-perverts-went-war-nudists.html

    My comment: Where is this? 😂

    The video is quite something. A lot of it is shot in some rather dull forestry with a logstack of the sort which must by law have warning signs saying DON'T CLIMB ON LOG STACKS all round it and there's him and her and the three veg draped over the top of it. You would expect the camera man if nobody else to have the sense to advise against this.
    One of the few rules that governed my childhood wanderings.
    Eabhal, as you're around: I'm after a view on the North of Scotland. What's Aviemore like these days? My parents used to sort of avoid it and I always got the impression it was made of concrete, but perhaps that's in the past now as Google Maps makes it look not unpleasant. Still a resort rather than an authentic small town, but I can get past that. I'd quite like to get to the North at half term and Aviemore appears to have ten times more accommodation than anywhere else.
    If I might jump in...although it has been 4 long years since I've been able to go on a Munro bagging mission, it probably hasn't changed much in that time.

    The town itself is a bit ugly but has useful shops and must take all of 5 minutes on a bike to get out of into the woods or along the river. Though if you are self-catering there are plenty of places on the fringes of Aviemore which have a better outlook. Many many many years ago it had a reputation as a bit of a party destination but I think that crowd has long gone. The ski area is much run down (that's another scandal on the lines of the Calmac Ferries but on a smaller scale).

    I usually prefer Newtonmore or Boat of Garten. If you can get somewhere on the back road (Insh, for instance) then that's much better for a bit of peace and quiet.

    I hear on the grapevine that the first winter snows arrived on the tops yesterday...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458


    Republican Voters Against Trump
    @AccountableGOP
    ·
    12m

    Trump: "The migrants are walking off with the town's geese. They've taken the geese. You know where the geese are in the park, in the lake, and even walking off with their pets. My dog's been taken. My dog's gone."

    Trump is a couple of ducks short of a pond.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    rcs1000 said:

    mercator said:

    So I made an announcement at work that has caused so much rancour.

    Apparently I am like one of those gay bashing televangelists who gets caught cottaging.

    All because I announced tomorrow I am having a doner kebab pizza for the first time.


    Deviated prevert
    Nobody should ever eat a doner kebab unless they are absolutely certain they know who the doner was.
    Named after the Donner Party, as I'm sure you know.
    That's...not a kebab
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh, Andrea Jenkyns... 😭

    What she done now ?
    Check out her Twitter (X) - I won't post it on here as she seems to have probably posted a libelous post about a Labour cabinet minister...
    Even if true, I don't get it. She alleges a Labour minister was drunk, and says if at a party, it was hypocrisy. Either Dame AJ has left out an important detail or she has not understood the essence of Partygate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    edited September 13
    Does anyone, such as HYUFD, know what would have happened if two candidates had come equal bottom in any round of the Tory leadership vote? Would they have both been eliminated for example, meaning that one fewer round of voting would be necessary...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,623
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone, such as HYUFD, know what would have happened if two candidates had come equal bottom in any round of the Tory leadership vote? Would they have both been eliminated for example, meaning that one fewer round of voting would be necessary...

    I’m not sure what the rules are on this occasion but ISTR they said last time if that happened they would run the round again and if the same two still true for bottoms then they would both be dropped.
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