Categories
What’s this betting market going to look like on Wednesday morning? – politicalbetting.com
What’s this betting market going to look like on Wednesday morning? – politicalbetting.com
For over a week Donald Trump has been the favourite on Betfair and with the forthcoming debate on Tuesday evening (American time) might change that. Normally debates don’t matter but Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in June saw a massive change on Betfair and saw Biden eventually quit the race.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Unknown to us at the time, it foreshadowed Truss's effect on the British economy, and the reaction of the British public.
Might we have something similarly prophetic from the Harris/Trump debate?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/czrxgll23w9o
There’s been lots of discussion and argument between the camps over the format, but no changes ended up being made from the previous agreement between Trump and Biden.
I think that Harris wants to stick as closely to the script as possible, while Trump is much happier down in the off script swamp, and wants Harris down there too wrestling with the proverbial pig.
Either of them could end up saying something totally outrageous.
Unlike the last debate with Biden, and irrespective of what actually occurs at the debate, what’s not going to happen is all of the liberal media doing anything other than calling it a brilliant victory for Veep. The two sides now have their own media that talk straight past each other, and can agree on little more than that today is Sunday.
As many commentators have said in the past few days, no-one is going to change their mind, so it’s now all about the turnout - first getting people registered to vote, and then actually voting.
This is a common feature of these kind of populist leader cults. Any negative is taken as a positive - proof that The Conspiracy will do Anything to stop The Hero.
What does this mean for the debates? The problem is that it is virtually impossible for Trump to “break” the lock he has on 45% of the electorate. They aren’t voting for him, anyway, they are voting for The Legend.
If he collapses into complete carehome grade dementia on stage that will become “The Hero was poisoned by Democrats and Ukrainians to steal the election”.
Trump will get 45% of the vote (more or less). He and Harris are fighting over less than 10%
So the debates might move the needle a bit - but not much. No matter what actually happens.
Kamala wins the popular vote comfortably, Trump probably wins the College by a whisker.
I suspect that is what the markets are telling us.
And one of them was cogent enough to (eventually) pull out of the race.
Let’s hope it’s a little more decisive, one way or another, than that race.
Both teams have already spent millions on lawyers, and no doubt will be spending tens of millions more over the next four months.
What is totally alien to those watching from abroad, is just how much control local political leaders have on the actual process of elections. There are very few Federal rules, so States, counties, and cities all have a huge amount of discretion over how the elections are conducted, and the politicians in charge can and do push the limits of what’s allowed for their own political benefit and that of their party.
1. China 94 gold medals
2. Dear Old Blighty 47
3. Land of the Free (except healthcare) 36
4. ex-Holland 26
5. Pizza and pasta 24
6. The beautiful game 23
7. Slava Ukraini 21
8. Aux Armes (& gilets jaunes) Citoyens 19
9. Land down under, girt by sea 18
10. Japan 14
I think Kamala is highly likely to win the PV, but Trump could easily scrape through the EC. It's currently 3.05 at Betfair for an outcome that I would price closer to 2, Pennsylvania being a toss up.
In the MAGA case, they have methodically taken over, where they can, the election machinery in a number of states.
I try and work out what the actual odds are. Then look at the market, afterwards, to see if there is value there.
Political betting is interesting because there are so many people betting with their hearts and not their heads. AKA suckers. Less than there used to be - there was that thing in the U.K. in the early 2000s of politicians and supporters betting to move the market. As if the odds would somehow help them on election day…
The price in the market is of no use in primary decision making.
There’s even lawsuits over the eligibility of candidates themselves, for example the Dems spent a lot of money trying to get RFK Jr off ballots in a number of states, only to then spend a lot more money trying to stop him withdrawing his name when he got behind Trump.
The UK system of actually running the election is better in every single way.
I think the debate will matter, to some extent, in whether it punctures the Harris bubble. At the moment she is enthusing Democratic-leaning voters by being a projection of hope. If she starts going off on her word-salads, she could look a bit diminished. I do however think she will have been prepped for this debate to the Nth degree, and therefore I do expect her to avoid any clangers and play it defensively.
I do believe that 45% of the electorate will vote for almost anyone put up against almost any candidate the modern Dem Party will realistically put forward.
In Britain, we might grumble about the sort of basket of state-knows-best fashionable positions which Labour vaguely represents. But outside a small core it's not actually electorally toxic*. In America it's toxic to a good 45% of the population. So people will vote for someone who is unequivocally against that brand of politics, even if he is deranged.
*We talk about how shallow Labour's support is. But I also think opposition to Labour is pretty shallow, yet.
That's the beauty of coming on here to discuss politics isn't it? People bet with their heads, not their hearts, and, more importantly, discuss their reasons for so doing.
I am musing what would be the 2024 surprise flips.
I am aware of decent polling for Harris in Florida and Texas showing her 4 points behind in each, but I think they’re probably outliers and a bit of a bridge too far.
The obvious examples are Texas and Florida, said to be trending Dem for years but never quite getting there. Two states that have had a lot of immigration from California and NY respectively since the last election. Now many will say that those who left the Dem states were Reps who didn’t like Dem policies, but it’s not difficult to imagine a swing there.
2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2 .
As a service user now I don't think I want to see a root and breach reform; I want to see the present system properly funded and staffed. And it's not 'just' seeing a GP or consultant; I want to be able to contact a physiotherapist or district nurse without an interminable wait on the phone, and a recorded voice telling me the service is 'experiencing a high volume of calls'.
Amazing how resilient a pencil, piece of paper and an open count in a community centre can be.
I have delayed dog walking until a dry interlude.
Met office is my go to and tends to be a bit more balanced in its descriptions as well (e.g, might be a higher chance of rain but it’s write ups will make clear whether it’s sporadic drizzle or heavy but infrequent showers etc).
I’m usually one who complains about the expanding number of bureaucrats - but when it comes to elections, having them organised by the bureaucracy is infinitely preferable to having them organised by the incumbent politicians themselves.
Don’t mind a bad forecast just want an accurate one.
They heard the expected broad spread of opinions, but one specific one blew their mind. This guy very enthusiastically told them that Trump won in 2020, that the elite had stolen it from him and were working to destroy America, that various nonsensical conspiracy theories were true etc etc.
Sopel asked him what evidence he had for these things - as there is vast evidence proving the opposite. He insisted the truth had been masked by DNC lies. And then asked them - very seriously - if Nancy Pelosi had sent them to speak to him to try to paint MAGA in a bad light.
There appears to be a solid percentage of Americans who have been gaslit to believe things which are demonstrably untrue and patently absurd. Anyone presenting them with facts is thus an enemy of democracy.
Nor is Brockley, admittedly. Except in the narrower Phil Collins sense of not being a homeless girl on the street.
With the shitkicker party insisting on inserting them into the bedroom to subjugate women and putting it on the ballot, the turnout is going to be huge - and angry. So I expect Harris to win and to win comfortably - angry women, motivated and driven, fighting for basic rights, decency and dignity will swing this.
As for the debate, if the Harris team get her to simply bat away Trump's abuse then it is going to drive him absolutely crazy. And the crazier he gets, the worse his defeat gets. This is 2024, not 2020, not 2016. His hardcore of conspiracists might like crazy, but general voters seem increasingly sick of it.
I'm struggling with the BBC's "make them all look like Bercow" room. My early photo quota.
Everyone thinks they're just out of reach, so either would qualify as a surprise.
N Carolina or Georgia wouldn't.
I wonder if being a semiconductor-producing country will one day be the economic equivalent of being a nuclear power
https://x.com/kyleichan/status/1832594244382392360
Europe (and the UK) really ought to be collaborating to rebuild a genuinely competitive manufacturing base. It's not as though they don't have the capability.
I am so headed to skid row on this one.
(*I agree with you about the wind quirk on Apple though: who thought that a good idea?)
We can't compete with China on costs, so the inference of your post that we pay working people less and tax rich people less doesn't solve the problem. Nor does paying people less help the economy as they then have less money to circulate buing products & services which means businesses close and jobs are lost.
'Designed in England/UK' is always a killer tell on a label.
As I see it the Trump family are in it purely for the money. Melania will walk away with her kid, and I don't see anyone of note otherwise. It's possible several of those could be in legal trouble, too.
As for the Republicans rebuilding themselves? No idea. I think the structure of US politics is at a hinge point analogous to perhaps only two or three we have seen since 1900.
On the matter of Starmer, this is one of the reasons why I don't like him. The large bulge of Boomers working thru their final days in the next 15 years will break the system unless it's properly funded. Him talking hard does not help this and in fact makes things worse
Hopefully your health issues are behind you.
And yet, I think objectively, this is where the evidence leads: a likely large increase in turnout swamping Trump.
The proper funding of immensely expensive healthcare services that are primarily used by the aged is more taxation of the aged, through the soaking of assets (mainly via higher property taxes and death duties.) And up with that the oldies will not put. They've paid their taxes so must now have everything for free. Just look at the burning bales and pitchforks we've had over the partial withdrawal of one small handout.
The young can't afford to support the old and the old don't want to help support themselves. So on we all go, circling the plughole together.
But there's no good way to quantify the effect; I think we're all guessing between now and November.
Though it's reasonably likely that an outsize number of new voter registrations among the young will benefit Harris, there's also the unquantified effects of the various efforts to purge voter rolls.
You're right that the demographic bulge will be in the 2030s, but it's easy to overstate it. NHS sending is increasing rapidly right now (from a relatively low base) even without that bulge.
One anecdotal example (ignoring the slightly hyperbolic headline) but it matches well with my experiences in France, Norway, the Netherlands and Germany, all of which are light years better than the UK when it comes to front end service.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/french-healthcare-makes-the-nhs-look-like-bedlam/
So to see whether to put the washing out is a comparative scan of a couple of charts and looking out the window.
And after all, Europe still builds some of the essential tools - which we don't.
You cannot manage, for example a project I once managed, a JIT sequenced CPM assembly to line at JLR with dozens of variants, from a Far East supplier. It needs to be done locally. Same goes for many other products.
China may win on labour costs but any business sourcing in China will incur additional costs in dealing with an extended supply chain as well as remote project management and supplier visits. It just is not worth sourcing low volume product out there in my experience.
Our corporation is actively moving out of China and moving to MEENA production due to perceived political risk.
We are still one of the largest manufacturers in the world and have a great, vibrant and diverse manufacturing base. Long May it continue,