Grifters gonna grift – politicalbetting.com
Grifters gonna grift – politicalbetting.com
House and Senate Republicans are starting to panic about a huge money gap with Democrats https://t.co/uhxME3o6xr
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I feel I don't deserve it.
Does anyone else want it? There's a deal to be done.
My guess is they will go for:
1) remove higher rate pension relief- back to 20%
2) increase capital gains tax
3) reintroduce pensions lifetime allowance
If they're feeling bold - I think they might try for scrapping inheritance tax and replacing it with a less generous lifetime gift allowance...
It would be novel, I said.
David Lammy is determined to be a champion of international law.
By George Eaton"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2024/09/why-labour-acted-on-arms-to-israel
Capital gains tax and lifetime allowances seem certain to be amended
On IT I expect the seven year gift allowance to go
1. Remove pensions from salary sacrifice and discount payments into pensions at around 30%. This is roughly neutral to the status quo for basic rate tax payers once you take NI into account and gives higher rate tax payers a substantial discount while still collecting useful revenue on the income funding those pension payments. It does however clobber employers contributing to pensions so they may need to be partially compensated for those.
4. The typical inheritance arrangement is husband/wife leaves their estate to each other then their children and grandchildren. Inheritance tax kicks in when the second spouse dies with an effective tax threshold of £1 million (2 spouse allowances of £325K plus £175K for property left to close family) I would remove the £175K part that was introduced by the previous government just a couple of years ago, resulting in a new typical threshold of £650K. I would also tighten up tax treatment of trusts that are used to avoid IHT - this is complicated and most normal people won't understand the differences.
If it were up to me (but it's not) I'd change the fiscal rules first.
Even Big_G's 25% would be a boost, and it's probably a great way to sell the policy, as the pensions of the lower paid could certainly do with the help.
My predictions:
Pension tax relief at 20% only, annual allowance reduced to £30,000pa, no return to lifetime allowance as they don't want to upset their public sector friends with their huge fully indexed pensions
IHT: reductions of reliefs only, no increase in rates, maybe get rid of the double availability of the £325,000 between spouses
IT: no increase but personal allowance frozen further to 2029 'end of parliament '
CGT: move towards IT levels, probably not all the way
The surprise: a new levy like Health and Social Care levy also known as Rachel's Redistribution Revenue 2% on all income to pay for bigger public sector salaries sorry I mean sort out the NHS
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Flatlander said:
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Dynamic road pricing?
4pm outside a school? £10 / mile. M74 through the borders late at night? 0.01p / mile.
Would mean universal car tracking through. Do we really want that?
That would make a lot of teachers very unhappy…
Someone with a lump sum of £200,000 and residual gross pension of £50,000 would be LTA £200,000 + £800,000 = £1m
This Labour government looks set to take from pensioners and private sector workers to subsidise the unionised public sector
@rcs1000 said:
"If you remove the personal allowance - even if gradually between £100k and £150k - then you create the situation that your £150,001 pound is worth more than your £100,000 one."
No, not necessarily and I thought my description covered that, but maybe it wasn't clear. You remove the allowance very gradually. I would start earlier, say at £75,000, and remove it so slowly that the marginal rate increase is quite small (not the whooping 20% currently). Once you get to the elimination point you introduce a new tax band at the current effective rate or of course if you are so inclined to a higher rate.
So your effective tax rates are say:
0, 20, 40, 45 (effective while eliminating PA), 45
instead of
0, 20, 40, 60 (effective while you eliminate PA), 45
It really isn't complicated either which some are critical of. After all it is what we do currently, but just smooths it.
I've been saying this for a couple of weeks.
How much of the GOP’s money problem is down to Trump
a) using half the money he raises to fund his legal bills
b) funnelling the rest through entities he controls so he can take a cut?
And that is not counting the money he his getting my selling NFTs etc which will not then be available for GOP fund raising.
https://x.com/naomi4labnec/status/1830037267483603012?s=43
It is easy to avoid this in your will so has no impact other than making some peoples lives a bit more complicated and earning lawyers a small fee from lots of people (which I think we all agree is not a good thing
Also as @hyufd points out it will be extremely unpopular to do. I don't know why, but it really is. See the battle between and Labour and the Tories previously when they tried to outdo one another over IHT allowances.
As I said earlier - me predicting it won't happen almost certainly means it will.
Not a great system.
Meanwhile the Republican media continues to churn out a never-ending stream of increasingly rabid bile against Harris, some of it strikingly extreme. Makes our Daily Mail seem a bit soft.
The former security minister vowed to “serve, lead, act” as he formally launched his campaign in Westminster on Tuesday, a day before the first vote by MPs that will whittle down the number of Tory contenders from six to five."
https://www.ft.com/content/a9add13e-5ea3-4700-be02-7220a217557d
The challenge for the politicians is how you make employer voluntary contributions to employee’s pension pots, done in this way, illegal? Without unforeseen consequences.
I forgot. Duty on beer up well ahead of inflation. LAB don't like pubs they prefer dinner parties with expensive wine
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1830980737568514262
ETR: now not needed comment on posting from previous thread
"Against Harris, he looks old (because he is), confused (because he is), far less intelligent than she (because he is), and less genuinely patriotic (because he is)."
https://x.com/newrepublic/status/1830706775533691256
The key is whether there’s a visible payback in five years time. Labour would do better being bold and unpopular now, and then ensuring people can see the results when it matters.
While both look too much of a stretch for Harris, the Senate races are closer.
It's the lump sum plus 20x the residual pension not 16x.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4859528-david-jolly-former-gop-lawmaker-donald-trump-little-richie-rich/
More likely: fags £100 for 20, so that nobody can afford to smoke in pub gardens any more. Problem solved.
The reason:
PA is really there for the benefit of the lower paid, however it has greater benefit the higher your marginal tax rate is which is perverse. Each time you increase the PA (which you should do each time because of inflation) you benefit the well off more than the poorest which is the opposite of your objective. You could I guess mess with the thresholds or rates each time, but that is more messy than just getting rid of it for those that don't need it.
Swing-state Senate races looking bad for Trump’s election
https://thehill.com/opinion/4859013-swing-state-senate-races-trump/
..Here’s the point. If current polls are accurately reflecting swing-state voters’ choices for their respective Senate candidates, those leads will likely determine those states’ choice for president.
It’s true that some voters will split their vote, supporting a Republican for one office and a Democrat for a different office. But that trend is down. According to a Pew Research Center poll just before the 2020 presidential election, only 4 percent said they would consider voting for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden and a Senate candidate from the other party.
Perhaps more tellingly, Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has examined the post-war history of split presidential/Senate outcomes.
It was fairly common for people to vote for a Republican president and Democratic Senate candidate, or vice versa, up through the 1990s. But that trend has declined and has largely vanished as the parties have become more polarized. According to the Center, in the 2016 presidential election, not one state voted for the presidential candidate from one party and a Senate candidate from the other party. In 2020, only one state did: Maine, which voted for Republican Sen. Susan Collins but also Biden for president.
If swing-state Senate Democratic candidates were leading by 1 or 2 points, Trump might still win that state. But Democratic Senate leads of 4, 6 or 8 points would take a lot of split-ticket voting for Trump to win. It can happen. Collins of Maine was way down in the polls in 2020 and still pulled out a victory with 51 percent. But that’s unusual. ..
- Land tax on rugby grounds
- stained glass tax on cathedrals
- New higher VAT rate on Gail’s Bakery and Ivy outlets
- Orchard and vineyard levy
- Excise duty hike on cider
The Harris/Walz campaign is expanding its staff in Florida. You don’t expand staff unless it’s a place you believe you can win.
https://x.com/travisakers/status/1830643826081362226
https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/taxlab-taxes-explained/national-insurance-contributions-explained
Itwould be a bit higher, now, somewhere above 75K, at a guess.
Much more data, here: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/02/alcohol-free-guinness-sold-draught-first-time-uk/
Regular Guinness: £6.90 - cheers!
Guinness Zero: £6.35 - what the…!!!!
Roe v Wade has seriously dented his chances
Chump
Only thing EXCEPT for (to name but the most obvious)
> Creepy and his Mini-MAGA-ME Weirdo (a Republican US Senator) at the top of the GOP (Grifters On Parade) ticket.
> Equally (if that's possible) rotten GOP US Senate candidates in key US Senate battlegrounds from sea to shining sea.
There's $1.9B set to air in the 9 weeks between Labor Day and Election Day. Here's what we're seeing in the nation's biggest races🧵
Presidential
🔵$303M🔴$135M
While PA and GA are tied, Harris and her allies hold significant $ advantages in the 5 other battlegrounds and NE.
Reservations in Presidential Battlegrounds
#PAPol:🔵$70.8M🔴$70.6M
#GAPol:🔵$39M🔴$38.7M
#MIPol:🔵$55.2M🔴$6.6M
#AZPol:🔵$34.9M🔴$9.9M
#WIPol:🔵$33.1M🔴$3.5M
#NCPol:🔵$26M🔴$2.8M
#NVPol:🔵$19.5M🔴$1.4M
Omaha market: 🔵$7M🔴$0
https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1829613828382032212
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1830970976550424951
USA Today/Suffolk: President Biden's job approval (shift from June 30)
Approve: 48% (+7)
Disapprove: 49% (-8)
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 48%
🟥 GOP: 43%
——
Fav/unfav
Harris: 49-46 (net: +3)
Trump: 42-56 (net: -14)
——
very excited about voting for their candidate
Harris supporters: 68%
Trump supporters: 60%
——
Who do you think will win the presidency?
Kamala Harris: 50%
Donald Trump: 38%
——
Trust more on...
The Economy: Trump +5 (was Trump +14 vs Biden in June)
Immigration: Trump +3 (was Trump +13 vs Biden in June)
Healthcare: Harris +14
Race Relations: Harris +18
National security: Trump +5
Dealing with China: Trump +4
——
#7 (2.9/3.0) | 1,000 LV | 8/25-28
https://suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/9_3_2024_corrected_national_marginals_2.pdf
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-09-03/phone-thefts-up-150-as-government-pledges-crackdown
The GOP has since upped its spending - though of course it will now be paying more for airtime.
Are they serious.
He wants to impose 60% trade tariffs.
Madness
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Doors
In the Seattle area, there are a number of Russian Baptist churches. As I understand it, they were persecuted by the czars, by Stalin, and now by Putin. But they seem to be mostly left alone, here. (Though I wouldn't advise them to apply for a job with, for example, Google.)
Last Friday, I encountered several Jehovah Witness women offering pamphlets -- in Russian. The Witnesses are regulars just outside the local library, but this is the first time I have seen the Russian versions of their literature.
(I have known Witnesses all my life. To say the least, I don't share their theology, but the ones I have met have all been good people, willing to live in peace with others.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXE2xNa3j9U
So when will TRUMP get the message?
My guess is circa 2040!
The interesting thing is the movement in the numbers, rather than the absolutes.
Don'r forget the MAGA faithful have learned to disregard contradictions, and inconvenient facts. And at the same time, the MSM tends to sanity-wash Trump's nonsense.
I suppose it would save the government having to pay my pension…
Montana GOP Candidate Tim Sheehy Caught on Audio Talking About “Drunk Indians at 8 a.m.”
https://x.com/reedgalen/status/1830622935142600939
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725378010875
Polymarket has $776m bets on White House with kh strong favourite for popular vote and DT narrowly ahead for WH. Substack link discusses reasons DT ahead.
If you think a Dem majority is unlikely, why would you lay the GOP?
The Betfair terms are "Any independent senator will be added to totals of the party if they caucus/align with that Party." This helps not hinders the Dems.
The Dems need to hold Montana for 50/50 with VP Waltz having the casting vote. Dems have lost West Virginia.
Republicans are 5% ahead in the Senate poll for Montana according to RCP. It's a stretch for the DEMs. I reckon the Betfair odds are about right. 1/3 chance for the DEMs.
Starting to rebuild US self-sufficiency in some industrial sectors is an actual policy, as opposed to Trump's fantasy of China paying him for tariffs that he imposes. The man is an ignoramus.
They have a massive majority but are acting like they are still in opposition. Fucking do something. Ideally, today.
Just sayin'.
More people cycled to the school I went to (including me) and that was a school which was a third of the size where 80% of the students were boarders…
Also your examples:
Christianity is really not the only religion persecuted in China, so far as I know they aren't singled out though proselytising and "foreign influence" are hit hard.
https://www.independent.co.uk/money/sir-keir-starmer-vows-to-tackle-issue-of-ticket-pricing-following-oasis-furore-b2605790.html
“I do think there are a number of things that we can do and we should do, because otherwise you get to the situation where families simply can’t go, or are absolutely spending a fortune on tickets, whatever it may be.
“So we’ll grip this and make sure that actually tickets are available at a price that people can actually afford.”
0% Heineken has an interesting and lingering apple-like aftertaste.
if anyone ever find a 0% red wine that bears any relation to red wine, please inform! I am fairly sure it can't be done.
One of the many wonderful things about a heavy Conservative defeat at a General Election is the plethora of post-election memoirs, essays in self-justification and otherwise accounts of what REALLY went on behind the scenes as the Conservatives headed toward electoral disaster which appear coincidentally just in time to be hawked round the Conservative Conference.
For we mere social democrat blobs looking on from the outside, I'm intrigued as to my autumn literary purchases - the Seldon book about the Truss administration is going to make more money than the Truss administration ever managed (though none of us have learnt or understood the lessons apparently). However, up on the rails is coming Lord Brady's book "Kingmaker" and I saw a fascinating interview with the former head of the 1922 Committee who basically had to tell May, Johnson and Truss their time was up and had to deal with the sudden departure of Cameron.
Hopefully it will be an interesting read.
He's gonna OUTPERFORM Kamala Harris in Big Sky Country.
Though a decent vote for KH/TW in MT does help JT . . . reason he was in favor of JB not running for re-election.