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What’s this betting market going to look like on Wednesday evening? – politicalbetting.com
What’s this betting market going to look like on Wednesday evening? – politicalbetting.com
MPs start voting in round one on Wednesday, my expectation is that Mel Stride will be the first to be knocked out then followed by Dame Priti Patel. Then voting is paused until after the last four hold a beauty parade at conference.
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Like Donald Trump, the adjudicated sex pest, who is ... going down.
Bloody dethreaded, twice - I knew it.
On topic, it's fun that the Tories model their leadership contest on a Balloon Debate.
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-09-01/israel-says-bodies-of-six-hostages-recovered-in-gaza
Britons who fly into an apoplectic rage that ‘anti-semites’ blame Israel as well as Hamas would do well to look at events in Israel and reflect that is the one country in the Middle East where it is safe to join a trade union, to be gay, to follow any religion or none, and even to tell the Prime Minister he is a murderous knob.
I think they would be better going for Cleverly who strikes me would make a solid LOTO who could steady the tory ship and implement party reforms.
However, I would point out that you can join a trade union in Lebanon.
We get to witness an array of degenerate inadequates prostrate themselves before the Tory membership (or is that the other way round?), and then hopefully the least electable two make it to the membership ballot, where they then go out offering more and more unelectable policies to win the vote.
The Israeli government says the hostages were shot at close range in the last 48-72 hours. Hamas “disputes this and says they were killed in an Israeli air strike”
That’s going to be a simple question of fact.
A single form primary school may look lovely but it’s hard to gauge how it’s doing when you have nothing to compare against
Going off the 6 declared candidates he (gut political instinct) is the best weapon the Tories could deploy at this stage in the electoral cycle. So he'll almost certainly lose.
F1; got to love Stroll getting 1s behind Ocon, ahead of Gasly, Tsunoda out, the Canadian's much faster, and then he pits. ...
And, just for this thread: I've shifted my view. Reckon Norris is now title favourite due to Red Bull struggling so much. Still very close.
Also going to consider if it's worth backing Ferrari for the title (probably not, but worth checking).
Unless McLaren bring in team orders it’s going to be McLaren for the constructors but Max for the drivers title
"However, this ended up costing the team points overall and Norris in particular. With the title so close, most teams would be laying down the law to maximise the chances of their lead driver."
I think if the pass had been more efficient it might still have worked out, but he lost Norris 2nd to Leclerc as well.
An acquaintance made the Telegraph this morning, with what is actually a decent story of how supermarkets (M&S here) don't think or consult before doing their interventions to make life greener.
M&S threatened with legal action over eco-fridges
Supermarket aims to reduce energy bills by up to a third with new doors that wheelchair user claims are too high for her to reach
https://archive.ph/fYdg0
M&S putting doors on food cabinets and low shelves in front that prevent wheelchair users doing their shopping. Here's Flick's twitter thread from June, which M&S have so far not listened to, and my photo quota. Staff can't help when there are no floor staff. She is now going legal, which I admire as it is a tough process on your own.
Disabled by @marksandspencer yet again ‼️ Now I can no longer shop independently because the chiller cabinet doors pull toward you & these ridiculous racks at the base get caught on wheels & prevent you getting close enough to reach handles let alone food inside
https://x.com/flickhwilliams/status/1797533326271775015
Others get it right; so can M&S. 30 years after this stuff became a legal requirement, this is not good enough. There's this thing called the Purple Pound they need to remember.
From my skeptical view I think the Telegrunt is perhaps interested in trying to feed a "green practices" vs "disabled people" narrative. In reality it's about M&S not consulting properly, and only taking notice once a legal action comes in - just like many organisations still stuck in the stone age. As always, it's really simple, easy stuff to get right.
So now they fuck up the school inspection system. To please the unions
This government is like a bad parody of a bad lefty government
Cleverly seems to have the right temperament to cope with the absurdity, but who knows? Maybe Jenrick is hollow enough to reinvent himself for whoever is is audience of the moment. Worked for Boris, after all.
I don't think it does blow-dry, or your dog could come out looking like a pompom.
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/14385922.dog-owners-joy-at-new-dog-washing-machine-in-sandbanks/
(Update: apparently it does, or did, have a blow-dry setting.)
Unlike some on here I do believe in having an effective inspection system that grades schools and gives parents what the information they ned to make choices. But the current OFSTED regime is not it. One word judgements belong in the Colosseum or the firing squad, not school standards.
That's First time buyers who 99% of the time are not subject to Stamp Duty due to the first time buyer allowance....
The secondary question of where does the money come from doesn't matter as he's just made this election enough one where the race is to reduce tax as much as possible...
Stick a fork in me, I'm done!
Punchy start to the new school term: Jenrick offering Pol Eds Buck’s Fizz or a Bloody Mary for breakfast.
Long way from David Cameron’s smoothies in 2005.
Could be a long old day. 😂
The Wets support Cleverly and/or Tugendhat who must both get through to the members' vote for either to stand a chance. The market puts the probability of that at ~ ⅓ .
The Drys support Badenoch and/or Jenrick. The market gives a ⅔ probability that at least one of them gets through to the members' vote.
To prevail, the Wets must comprise more than ⅔ of Tory MPs, and their support for the weaker of Cleverly or Tugendhat must exceed that of the Drys for the stronger of Badenoch or Jenrick.
Tory MPs will have to do dynamic coalition building throughout the electoral process. They used to be called the world's most sophisticated electorate, but that is a mischaracterisation. Rather their chosen electoral process requires them to play a multistage game before the members, whose preferences are well known, get to have a say.
Replace stamp duty (and equivalent in Scotland) and replace with higher council tax on larger properties. Downsizing bonanza, opening up those spare bedrooms for young families.
A negotiated settlement would be good. Except that Hamas is unwilling to negotiate or step back from their genocidal intent.
From my skeptical view I think the Telegrunt is perhaps interested in trying to feed a "green practices" vs "disabled people" narrative. In reality it's about M&S not consulting properly, and only taking notice once a legal action comes in - just like many organisations still stuck in the stone age. As always, it's really simple, easy stuff to get right.
The reason they are not responsive is that a whole team of people in M&S management will have been responsible for commissioning the new design.
Its failure - possibly legally as well - is a disaster for the career of The Glorious Leader of The Team.
Obviously, sticking your head in the sand and hoping that if you can’t see the problem, the problem can’t see you, is the correct approach.
As to why it happened - Energy Efficiency is fashionable. Disability access less so. Expecting a generalist manager to understand two domains of specific knowledge at once would be a human rights violation.
What probably does matter is the shape of the party in the country. In many places, it's a fairly mouldy husk, which is why a smallish number of Lib Dems can beat them on the ground.
I know what needs to be done- attract younger, less strange, active activists. People who can get to doorsteps independently and not put voters off when they do. But I haven't got the faintest idea how. Only one of the reasons I'm not running for Conservative leader.
Any real measure would surely require spending more time at the school, sitting in lessons etc, Shirley?
I don’t know if it was Hamas or another group (they have parcelled out the hostages) but you are dealing with individuals who are happy to deliberate rape, torture, desecrate and murder innocent civilians.
You just elected neo Nazis
And profoundly spectacular. Third deepest in the world
How many of us on here have even heard of it??! Not me, and I’ve been all over the world AND I do this for a half of my living
Wonderful that you can still find places like this. In Europe!
So put that all in a pot and stir it and who do I think will be best? I'm going Tugendhat because he has that Cameroon self-awareness and is sufficiently posh and English to not need to assuage the extremes.
People should calm down about Leon and not feel so threatened.
No country is solely a beacon of light.
Its failure - possibly legally as well - is a disaster for the career of The Glorious Leader of The Team.
Obviously, sticking your head in the sand and hoping that if you can’t see the problem, the problem can’t see you, is the correct approach.
As to why it happened - Energy Efficiency is fashionable. Disability access less so. Expecting a generalist manager to understand two domains of specific knowledge at once would be a human rights violation.
As a full-time wheelchair user I see this sort of thing all the time (see: the near ubiquity of pedal bins in disabled loos for a semi-amusing example.) I am sure it's lack of awareness rather than a deliberate two-fingers to the disabled.
The answer of course is to employ a group of actual disabled people to try out the new designs before rolling them out widely. I am available for such hard graft on a daily rate equvalent to 50% that of the responsible M&S Exec Director.
(Awaits pm from M&S's CEO...)
Result? She’s just 3 got A starred A levels and now has her pick of universities
Outstanding. The one thing the Tories did well was education. And now Labour are gonna fuck it up to please the unions
Your standard Ofsted inspection is one day in a school, preceded by inspectors looking at publicly-available forms. (To the extent that some schools used to track unusual activity on their website to guess if an inspection was imminent.) Because of that, it's all more superficial than you might think, and there is a definite sense that inspectors come in with a hypothesis that they seek to confirm rather than test.
You could do the whole thing better- inspectors starting with observations on the ground, visiting schools more often and for longer. But that would cost, and nobody has ever wanted to spend the money.
He must enjoy it otherwise he wouldn't post things like his support for neo-nazi Björn Höcke.
As I said the other day while I was away I had a few PBers privately implore me to come back “as it so boring now”
No joke. So I see it as my job to spice things up of a morning, like a triple espresso of opinion. And if that means some more vulnerable souls get a bit triggered and caffeinated, so be it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMIKzUAY8n4
Hamas are not (Bibi - or at least his extreme right flank - doesn’t want to, but can probably be strong armed into a settlement).
Do you really believe that withdrawing from Gaza and giving them self-government, for example, would result in a peaceful democratic society there?
#JeSuisGerbil
"Lose Cruz"
https://x.com/ColinAllredTX/status/1830083242386411532
Voters lost to Reform? Patel, Badenoch or Jenrick.
Not yet a candidate though who can rebuild all the 2019 winning Conservative coalition Boris built
When putting 2% on the basic rate of tax for example probably most won't feel that here, for a "jam" that could well be another meal they will be skipping at the end of the month yet its airly thrown out as a suggestion like it won't actually affect anyone
I would suggest the definition of working class these days should be probably
a) You rent or have a mortgage because bank of mum and dad
b) you have little in the way of savings as you struggle to make the money last to the end of the month
c) If you lose your job you are going to be in financial trouble within weeks
But yes also - depends who they want to win back. Elections are always won from the centre, we are told, which also suggests Tugendhat. As we see time and again, the only consequence of trying to pander to the extreme is that the extreme shifts further out and you are back where you started trying to appeal to them.
The tragedy you hint at is that even if the principals were willing to settle, there'd be others on both extremes ready to provoke their opponents and prevent peace.
That's why it probably makes more sense to see things in purely economic terms and ditch the working, middle, upper class nomenclature when looking at economic circumstances.
The only immediate changes are the scrapping of the headline grade - which was imbecilic in lumping together otherwise good schools which failed in a single category along with those seriously inadequate - and the automatic acadamisation rule (equally imbecilic).
Labour may well fail to improve education - certainly the previous government did - but it won't be because of this.
Of course Hamas could just release all the hostages which, given current global public opinion, would be overwhelmingly likely to bring an instant ceasefire but I suppose they have their reasons not to do so.
You see, I want it to be fair, humane and reasonable and my real concern here is that there are plenty that just don't think it's appropriate for schools to be rated at all. Firstly, because of pressure that puts on the school and the staff, and, secondly, because it might help contribute to creating a market in education, to which there is ideological opposition.
If that is the case, then I strongly disagree.
Then again, he thought that the original sin was the creation of Israel in the first place (assuaging Europe's guilt as he saw it) and there are some who would take issue with that premise.
He should own the Mark Darcy and be himself. FWIW, I don't think he is wet/soft (and has been consistently tough on China) but he can't help the fact he looks wet/soft.
Could he cope with the bullpit of frontline politics as the leader?
Maybe it makes sense for them to realise that they have played a poor hand badly, and releasing the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire would be a good deal today, but they are clearly either not ready to let go of what they hoped to achieve last October, or the current state of open-ended fighting is what they were looking for.
Note it's inputs and not the outputs they're focused on.
You seem confused. Which would be enjoyable if it wasn't so repetitive.
A brittle politician could be intelligent, ideological, driven, and sound. But does not have the capacity to ingest information, understand the issues around it, and accommodate in their response the opposing view if only to dismiss it. They would likely continue to make their own point regardless of any differing opinions.
A flexible politician, conversely, is able to accommodate in their response the possibility that people might disagree with them and understand and acknowledge the counter argument and thereby be able to dismiss it more sincerely.
The chatter about 'growth' before the election seems to have rather diminished.
While this helped Labour win on a tidal wave of apathy, that also means there isn't the public support for what they might do, given how quiet and vague they were. This is in rather stark contrast to Cameron and Osborne being open about significant cuts (Labour's likely equivalent, of course, being hiking taxes).
That might not be a bad idea. May well not be enough to win the next election but I sense the party does need someone who can rally the troops and hit back. Keep up morale in the ranks. It's a bit too early for the next PM to emerge - they tend to be more inclusive, more willing to triangulate with the other side of politics, less of a rabble rouser - that's probably for the next but one leader.
So I struggle to see a way through for anyone who looks or sounds moderate and accommodating. It seems almost certain it's going to be interior-decorator Jenrick.