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Another Boris Johnson failure, Brexit isn’t done – politicalbetting.com
Another Boris Johnson failure, Brexit isn’t done – politicalbetting.com
Is Brexit 'done'?(% of party voters)It is done: Con (42), Lab (27), Lib (25), Reform (27)It is not: Con (40), Lab (49), Lib (55), Reform (61)https://t.co/n9OZzTTB1T pic.twitter.com/q9unB8kgEU
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All I can say is
👀😱👀😱👀😱👀😱
https://x.com/marklewismd/status/1829008513772990504/photo/1
kinabalu said:
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That's true the polls underestimated Trump's vote last time (and I am in truth concerned they might be again) however the pollsters have made adjustments to their MO to try and prevent a recurrence. Perhaps it hasn't worked but hopefully it has. And you never know they might have overdone it and be erring the other way now.
TimS said:
Didn’t happen in the UK. Despite all the adjustments after 2019 they still massively overestimated Labour and underestimated Conservative.
However, polls in multiple countries are also routinely overestimating the far right, as they did here in July too.
Which makes the US difficult. Are they underestimating the main right wing candidate (Trump) or overestimating the far right candidate (Trump)?
It isn't done for most Labour and LD voters as they want Starmer to start to restore free movement and dilute Brexit.
It isn't done for most Reform voters as they want an even harder Brexit than Boris had with the RN stopping the boats and a hard border in Northern Ireland
Way off-topic:
An interesting video about a civil-war floating whorehouse and licensed prostitution :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRj1GbyK0rg
Seriously; it's worth watching. If you can't, then read this:
https://www.history.com/news/civil-war-prostitution-nashville
(Link to @JosiasJessop 's post on Nashville...)
And as with Brexit itself, how people interpret what that issue comprises will vary rather a lot.
NEW: Kamala Harris’s missing “summer job” at McDonald’s job. Her resume and job application a year after graduating college — @FreeBeacon obtained through FOIA — don’t mention it...
https://x.com/peterjhasson/status/1829105024393252971
Deservedly ridiculed in the comments.
They are desperate, and clueless.
A reminder that thirty days from now, that figure will reset to zero and stay there for good, bringing an end to coal burning for mass power in the UK.
Genuinely landmark moment.
Some of those who went to Reform want not only tighter immigration controls but deportations too
As you travel up the East Midlands Railway line to Nottingham or Sheffield you pass Ratcliffe-on-Soar public station which I believe is the last coal burning power station. The vast site could be redeveloped as a significant residential redevelopment (I don't know).
It's worth mentioning to @HYUFD that having told us from 2019 onwards the only opinions that mattered were those of LEAVE-voting Conservatives, it's worth noting eight weeks ago today there was a reset and presumably for the new Government the opinions of the rump of Conservative voters are immaterial - it's the Labour vote which will matter most to them and Government policies may or may not reflect that but that's how politics works.
Interesting to note @TOPPING's comments this morning. I don't "get" Trump, Farage or Johnson in that I struggle to understand how anyone with a functioning brain cell could support any of them but the fact is they do. Like most snake oil salesmen they say what they believe their audience wants to hear and as long as they don't face a 100% hostile crowd they can get away with that. That's the power of the echo chamber.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/02/rees-mogg-tories-build-wall-english-channel-donald-trump-biden
That would be unfortunate.
Gee, well...
More seriously I think most of our imports are from Norway (hydro) and France (wind and nuclear) when they have a surplus, so I'm guessing very little of our imports are coal fired anyway.
Apparently a non-combat loss.
How many Spitfire pilots did we lose in WWII to non-combat incidents?
RIP.
This is a good point. All the polls which breakdown the answers by voter status have just had a big reset after the GE.
There are examples of prohibition not working well (alcohol in the US in 1920), but there are plenty of examples of prohibition working well (commercial cultivation of blackcurrants in the US in 1911; Kinder eggs in the US under a 1938 law; pepper spray in the UK).
Whether prohibition for cannabis is the right strategy, I don't know. Maybe not. But I'm certain usage would be higher with prohibition (decriminalisation has led to increased use wherever it's been tried), so prohibition is having some effect.
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1829112194484633806
That said, I do also support an ever increasing age limit for being allowed to post to PB.
It wasn’t until 25 September 2020 that [Boris] finally understood even vaguely what leaving the Customs Union meant. I will never forget the look on his face when, after listening to Frost in a meeting on the final stage of the negotiation, he said, ‘No no no Frosty, fuck this, what happens with a deal?’ And Frost looked up from his paper and said, ‘PM, this is what happens with a deal, that’s what leaving the Customs Union means.’ The PM’s face was priceless. He sat back in his chair and looked around the room with appalled disbelief and shook his head. Horrified officials’ phones pinged around the Cabinet table. One very senior official texted me, ‘Now I realise how you managed to get Brexit done 😂’
https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/risk-aggression-brexit-and-article
https://imgur.com/EZ8GUMh
Larry Stroll is going to be in a bad mood this weekend.
https://amzn.eu/d/9Q7aM2k is an interesting read.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13792709/Judge-says-Albanian-fraudster-jailed-deserves-prisons-bursting.html
I was thinking just now actually does Joe have a good case to be England's greatest batsmen since the Second World War era? You could maybe make a case for Ken Barrington, and cases have been made for Kevin Pietersen, Peter May and Geoffrey Boycott, but in terms of his adaptability, flexibility, and sheer longevity I see Root as the pinnacle of them all since Compton and Hutton.
After the big fanfare of hiring Timpson as prison minster, has anybody heard from him? He seemed invisible during the riots.
https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;spanmin1=01+Oct+2018;spanval1=span;team=1;template=results;type=batting
The 1960s examination of the issues were interesting. Since explosions are lazy, a bomb detonated in the tunnel would not destroy it, but turn in into a giant cannon. Even with large nuclear weapons. There were jokes about the first Russian tank into the tunnel would end up back in Poland....
The design they came up with was a chamber off to one side of the tunnel, in the middle, that would blow out to the sea bed and flood the entire tunnel, IIRC.
Peter May was a very dreary selector, but a great batsman.
Compare and contrast the swashbuckling Petersen to paint-drying King Geoff. I don't watch cricket like I used to, but Boycs was never a Joe Root.
Anyway all great England batsmen wear Brylcreem!
In the case the bridges in Germany, IIRC there was a standard, conventional explosive charge that could be placed in the chamber, which was designed to maximise the effect and destroy the bridge reliably.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39k44n8j1mo
The party most threatened by Reform is now Labour and not the Tories. It is hard to know why Keir Starmer approval rating is dropping so fast but my gut feeling is that young white working class men are the biggest movers.
Other than that, no.
Round-the-world cruise delay keeps passengers in Belfast for three months
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/article/2024/aug/29/round-the-world-cruise-delay-keeps-passengers-in-belfast-for-three-months?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews
But yes - should be an options. As should much longer suspended sentence periods, so the perp gets a long-term Sword of Damocles.