As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
Encouraged a bout of violent 'sightseeing' at the seat of government when he lost?
I have no doubt he wanted people to get out on the streets. I don't think anyone, least of all those who participated, expected it to get so far out of hand.
As our own streetfighters have recently found out, when you start a process not realising your own actions might get out of hand is no defence. Of course people like 'legitimate questions' Farage never face the consequences.
I'm not saying it is a defence but it is an extreme form of political expression and then events, which lead to criminality and "pure" crime.
I was very vocal in trying to explain to PB some of the reasons for the 2011 riots in the face of, frankly, disappointing if typical PB "lock 'em all up" rhetoric (a good place to start: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/46297/1/Reading the riots(published).pdf) and likewise the Southport riots and Jan 6th.
I don't think many on PB really understand some of the motivating forces for people voting for Trump. I posted a good article recently about it and will try to look it out again.
Oasis have announced three extra concert dates in the UK for their reunion tour next year.
The band said they were adding the extra concerts due to "unprecedented demand".
The new dates are: 16 July in Heaton Park, Manchester; 30 July, Wembley; 12 August, Edinburgh.
The additional gigs mean the band will play five Wembley concerts, five in Manchester, and three in Scotland.
And 5 more dates at Wembley are already booked ready to be announced as the original ones sell out. Manchester will no doubt be the same.
I saw Oasis in 1993 at the Leadmill in Sheffield, around the time of the release of Definitely Maybe, for £5. Brilliant album, but they were awful live. Appeared totally bored and in complete contempt of the audience and each other. I was my first go-for-a-piss-just-to-pass-the-time gig experience. The second album was ok. Everything they have done since has been - well, not awful, just boring. I do understand the enthusiasm. The first album was brilliant. Once you've achieved that you can enthuse a lot of people by getting them to suspend disbelief and have them pretend that the latest preheated noise youe serving up is almost as good as "Columbia".
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Even if you don't have Germany vibes, if you're not feeling Schuschnigg, Mussolini or Horthy vibes you're being optimistic.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
I think the problem you face is that every time you compare Trump with the Nazis you do your cause a disservice and are likely to do more damage than harm to your cause.
Or perhaps you could organise a letter-writing campaign to point out to the Americans how misguided they are.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Even if you don't have Germany vibes, if you're not feeling Schuschnigg, Mussolini or Horthy vibes you're being optimistic.
Horthy would have kicked Trump to bits...
When Arrow Cross (the ultra Nazis in Hungary) invaded the Opera House to demand the release of their arrested leader. Horthy personally knocked down a couple of them....
"....and he [Horthy] had another by the throat, slapping his face and shouting what I learned afterward was: "So you would betray your country, would you?" The Regent was alone, but he had the situation in hand.... The whole incident was typical not only of the Regent's deep hatred of alien doctrine, but of the kind of man he is. Although he was around seventy-two years of age, it did not occur to him to ask for help; he went right ahead like a skipper with a mutiny on his hands."
Re the build cost issue, it is fundamentally driven by labour and material cost. Scrapping building regulations would not significantly change the labour/material cost. There are issues with building regs but they mostly seem to be connected to rushed policy changes post Grenfell and panics about safety.
I showed some estate agents around my flat today. The flat is old with deep rooms which are very cool in summer. It is quite the contrast with modern single aspect flats with fans on and windows wide open. Apparently it is the amount of insulation is causing overheating. I would be interested if that is true, I suspect there is truth in it. The EPC is E and to get up to C you would need to put on some insulation inside the walls, that would destroy the entire character of the flat and probably then cause it to overheat in summer. The windows are over a hundred years old, they would be ripped out in favour of UPVC, around 50 windows in the flat gone. For what purpose? The energy bills are £80 a month. The damage would never be justified. It seems like total philistine regulation.
There isn't a lot of difference in the principle of Building Regulation across European countries. One interesting thing about the UK (maybe 'England') is that the methods are not compulsory as such. They are a combination of required outcomes and approved methods. If you convince your Control Officer that your alternative method meets the required outcome safely, you can do it with their approval; that's how innovation can happen. A good example is underfloor insulation of traditional houses by entirely filling the void with polystyrene beads, which has been done since the 1990s; the BCO needs to be convinced that your method will prevent moisture getting in and rotting the floor joists.
The main issues are a reluctance amongst developers to build to decent quality, and lack of capacity in Councils to monitor/enforce since the developers cannot be trusted.
The increasing quality required by building regs has been a key part of our reducing energy consumption per household by 25% since 2000, which is quite an achievement. That's *after* taking into account trends such as us running our houses at a higher temperature, and is bills cheaper than they would otherwise be. My image quota for the day: (2022 is anomalous due to the energy crisis, but is perhaps a measure of what we *can* achieve under current conditions when we need to do so.)
@darkage flat is interesting. I'm not sure what regulations if any require an EPC C - are you planning to rent it out? These regs are coming in in Scotland and will be here in England too at some stage. There are exemptions, and also funding available. I support this, as there is too much prior history of poor quality rentals.
If a building is overheating extensively in summer in the conditions, then it has not been designed or modified well enough, or perhaps conditions have changed and the owners have not adapted. A classic is to insulate, and to forget to ventilate.
Yes, you need an EPC of D or higher, C or higher from next year.
You're right about it keeping cool. South facing with big Victorian windows, so my flat is almost unbearable in the summer. I'm not sure how sustainable that is going to be going forward - I know that my friends in London really struggle with it already.
If there was a new regulation that overnight temperatures in a rented flat cannot exceed 25c or something, I would be in real trouble.
If new builds are required to have so much insulation that we start having to install air conditioning for the summer, is that not totally counter-productive to the target of reducing power consumption?
Insulation works both ways, keeping the heat in during the winter and out during the summer. The trick in the summer is to make sure you ventilate the house overnight to allow it to cool, and then the insulation will stop it from heating too much during the day.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
Encouraged a bout of violent 'sightseeing' at the seat of government when he lost?
I have no doubt he wanted people to get out on the streets. I don't think anyone, least of all those who participated, expected it to get so far out of hand.
As our own streetfighters have recently found out, when you start a process not realising your own actions might get out of hand is no defence. Of course people like 'legitimate questions' Farage never face the consequences.
I'm not saying it is a defence but it is an extreme form of political expression and then events, which lead to criminality and "pure" crime.
I was very vocal in trying to explain to PB some of the reasons for the 2011 riots in the face of, frankly, disappointing if typical PB "lock 'em all up" rhetoric (a good place to start: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/46297/1/Reading the riots(published).pdf) and likewise the Southport riots and Jan 6th.
I don't think many on PB really understand some of the motivating forces for people voting for Trump. I posted a good article recently about it and will try to look it out again.
This confuses two things. PBers as a whole understand why people support Galloway, Islamic extremists, revolutionary Marxists, Hitler sympathising neo-fascists and all sorts of people in elections. Sometimes in very large numbers. Same with Trump. There are superb reasons for supporting him and multitudes of millions will. Understanding stuff doesn't mean you don't think it's dangerous, though it helps and enables rational discussion.
Note: I generally find Trump supporters staggeringly bad at answering difficult questions about stuff like 6th January.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
If there is higher African American and youth turnout that should help Harris but it needs to be in swing states above all to really help her. As TSE states registering to vote alone is not enough is those voters don't actually vote on the day
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
I think the problem you face is that every time you compare Trump with the Nazis you do your cause a disservice and are likely to do more damage than harm to your cause.
Or perhaps you could organise a letter-writing campaign to point out to the Americans how misguided they are.
Where did I do that ?
Your problem is that you're flailing around trying to say 'nothing to see here', without much of an idea of what's going on in the US.
And that you want to have it both ways, commenting on US politics, while decrying anyone else who does so, if they don't share your above the fray pose.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
Encouraged a bout of violent 'sightseeing' at the seat of government when he lost?
I have no doubt he wanted people to get out on the streets. I don't think anyone, least of all those who participated, expected it to get so far out of hand.
As our own streetfighters have recently found out, when you start a process not realising your own actions might get out of hand is no defence. Of course people like 'legitimate questions' Farage never face the consequences.
I'm not saying it is a defence but it is an extreme form of political expression and then events, which lead to criminality and "pure" crime.
I was very vocal in trying to explain to PB some of the reasons for the 2011 riots in the face of, frankly, disappointing if typical PB "lock 'em all up" rhetoric (a good place to start: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/46297/1/Reading the riots(published).pdf) and likewise the Southport riots and Jan 6th.
I don't think many on PB really understand some of the motivating forces for people voting for Trump. I posted a good article recently about it and will try to look it out again.
This confuses two things. PBers as a whole understand why people support Galloway, Islamic extremists, revolutionary Marxists, Hitler sympathising neo-fascists and all sorts of people in elections. Sometimes in very large numbers. Same with Trump. There are superb reasons for supporting him and multitudes of millions will. Understanding stuff doesn't mean you don't think it's dangerous, though it helps and enables rational discussion.
Note: I generally find Trump supporters staggeringly bad at answering difficult questions about stuff like 6th January.
I would characterise it thus - Trump is a terrible answer to *some* genuine questions.
Which is why I respect what the Biden administration has tried to do - to try and drain the real swamps of post industrial decline.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
The good news is that I think people on PB.com are realising the joys of posting order as it is on vanilla. The most recent post should be on the bottom, obvs, so if you come to a thread you haven't read yet and want to read it (it happens) then you aren't constantly glancing up to see the next post and you read it logically with the oldest at the top.
I'll remind you of this when you are having to scroll through 1,000 posts on a long thread....
Thing is, if it is latest at the top then if you are catching up on a thread you see the next post before you have finished reading the current one and you don't know what that post is referring to. It is illogical and spoils the gripping tension of post development.
If that is important to you, then you can start at the bottom and work up.
Just don't inflict your "gripping tension" on the rest of us...
RFK Jnr will remain on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin .
That could complicate things . But could help Harris .
He’s endorsed Trump but remaining on the ballot there means some voters will think it’s okay to vote for him as he’s with Trump .
There’s still a question mark over North Carolina where over half the counties have printed ballots . A decision there is due later today .
RFK Jr is off the ballot in Pennsylvania and Arizona though which would help Trump, however Harris can win with Michigan and Wisconsin and NC without those 2
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
To quote: ‘I don’t understand the point he’s making, and I don’t think he does either’.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
Yeah, I'm hating it. It makes much more sense to have the most recent post at the top. Otherwise, to see what's going on or to refresh the page, you have to scroll down to the bottom and click "More Comments", possibly multiple times.
Edit: And I've already been caught out, posting a response to a comment that was actually posted ages ago when the conversation has moved on.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
That *is* the classic tale of the disaffected & marginalised in the US. Where criminalisation of the underclass is system - once you have one conviction, it is nearly impossible to access "normal world". So, you do crime to live.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
Germany 1930s comparisons are usually not great. Not to be invoked in discussing, say LD policy on site value rating or tuition fees. Once upon a time we would not have invoked 1930s comparisons about Putin. It is not wrong to do so now. The attempt to overturn the American election process is quite enough to add Trump to the 'possibles' list. His refusal to criticise Putin and equivocation about NATO doesn't help either.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
Just get yourself informed. You're embarrassing yourself.
(First time I've ever been included in the PB/Graun crowd pearl clutchers! I just find the guy a complete grotesque. He appalls me on every metric I hold dear.)
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
Germany 1930s comparisons are usually not great. Not to be invoked in discussing, say LD policy on site value rating or tuition fees. Once upon a time we would not have invoked 1930s comparisons about Putin. It is not wrong to do so now. The attempt to overturn the American election process is quite enough to add Trump to the 'possibles' list. His refusal to criticise Putin and equivocation about NATO doesn't help either.
The Enabling Act certainly had elements of Trump's lawfare on the 2020 election.
But Trump is too erratic to be considered a full Nazi. Even remembering that Hitler was pretty damn erratic, he never babbled about sharks.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
Germany 1930s comparisons are usually not great. Not to be invoked in discussing, say LD policy on site value rating or tuition fees. Once upon a time we would not have invoked 1930s comparisons about Putin. It is not wrong to do so now. The attempt to overturn the American election process is quite enough to add Trump to the 'possibles' list. His refusal to criticise Putin and equivocation about NATO doesn't help either.
Putin leads a party, whose "philosophers" openly and proudly discuss creating a Russian Fascism. And go on about the good points of Adolf fucking Hitler.
At some point, if it quacks like a duck, goose-steps like a duck, invades countries under the banner of national expansion like a duck....
Re the build cost issue, it is fundamentally driven by labour and material cost. Scrapping building regulations would not significantly change the labour/material cost. There are issues with building regs but they mostly seem to be connected to rushed policy changes post Grenfell and panics about safety.
I showed some estate agents around my flat today. The flat is old with deep rooms which are very cool in summer. It is quite the contrast with modern single aspect flats with fans on and windows wide open. Apparently it is the amount of insulation is causing overheating. I would be interested if that is true, I suspect there is truth in it. The EPC is E and to get up to C you would need to put on some insulation inside the walls, that would destroy the entire character of the flat and probably then cause it to overheat in summer. The windows are over a hundred years old, they would be ripped out in favour of UPVC, around 50 windows in the flat gone. For what purpose? The energy bills are £80 a month. The damage would never be justified. It seems like total philistine regulation.
There isn't a lot of difference in the principle of Building Regulation across European countries. One interesting thing about the UK (maybe 'England') is that the methods are not compulsory as such. They are a combination of required outcomes and approved methods. If you convince your Control Officer that your alternative method meets the required outcome safely, you can do it with their approval; that's how innovation can happen. A good example is underfloor insulation of traditional houses by entirely filling the void with polystyrene beads, which has been done since the 1990s; the BCO needs to be convinced that your method will prevent moisture getting in and rotting the floor joists.
The main issues are a reluctance amongst developers to build to decent quality, and lack of capacity in Councils to monitor/enforce since the developers cannot be trusted.
The increasing quality required by building regs has been a key part of our reducing energy consumption per household by 25% since 2000, which is quite an achievement. That's *after* taking into account trends such as us running our houses at a higher temperature, and is bills cheaper than they would otherwise be. My image quota for the day: (2022 is anomalous due to the energy crisis, but is perhaps a measure of what we *can* achieve under current conditions when we need to do so.)
@darkage flat is interesting. I'm not sure what regulations if any require an EPC C - are you planning to rent it out? These regs are coming in in Scotland and will be here in England too at some stage. There are exemptions, and also funding available. I support this, as there is too much prior history of poor quality rentals.
If a building is overheating extensively in summer in the conditions, then it has not been designed or modified well enough, or perhaps conditions have changed and the owners have not adapted. A classic is to insulate, and to forget to ventilate.
Yes, you need an EPC of D or higher, C or higher from next year.
You're right about it keeping cool. South facing with big Victorian windows, so my flat is almost unbearable in the summer. I'm not sure how sustainable that is going to be going forward - I know that my friends in London really struggle with it already.
If there was a new regulation that overnight temperatures in a rented flat cannot exceed 25c or something, I would be in real trouble.
If new builds are required to have so much insulation that we start having to install air conditioning for the summer, is that not totally counter-productive to the target of reducing power consumption?
My parents new build has the opposite issue - it stays cool in summer (presumably because the walls and loft are so well insulated the main remaining heat loss is to the ground it's built on), to the extent that they were contemplating putting the heating on in August.
My 1950s built ex-council house (incidentally, with some really shoddy bits from its original construction I've had to fix) with newish but cheap double glazing and modest levels of insulation is fairly pleasant most of the year round. To get it to match up to modern insulation requirements (eg. triple glazing) would have payback times in the order of 100 years.
From my parents experience, we're spending tens of thousands upfront to achieve monthly savings of £10-20/month - this may be good for net zero, but the effects on the real world cost of housing are large.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
1. And Biden’s DOJ has been doing exactly the same to Trump and his supporters for the past four years.
2. Was clearly a joke that’s been taken way out of context. He said he’d be a dictator on day one, for one day only.
3. This is a think tank wish list, nothing to do with Trump. They didn’t even register the domain https://www.project2025.com/
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
Germany 1930s comparisons are usually not great. Not to be invoked in discussing, say LD policy on site value rating or tuition fees. Once upon a time we would not have invoked 1930s comparisons about Putin. It is not wrong to do so now. The attempt to overturn the American election process is quite enough to add Trump to the 'possibles' list. His refusal to criticise Putin and equivocation about NATO doesn't help either.
Putin leads a party, whose "philosophers" openly and proudly discuss creating a Russian Fascism. And go on about the good points of Adolf fucking Hitler.
At some point, if it quacks like a duck, goose-steps like a duck, invades countries under the banner of national expansion like a duck....
Goosey Goosey Gander Wither dost though wander? Only through the Marchland* Please excuse my blunder!
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
It is certainly closer than 2020, RCP's final 2020 projection was Biden 319 and Trump 219
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Except we don't really know how US polling companies have corrected for their errors last time around. Representative sampling is likely to be much more difficult in the US than it is here, and pollsters are shooting at a moving target.
I think all we can realistically say is that there's a large degree of uncertainty about how accurate US poll predictions are.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
Your complacency is bizarre. There was a clear danger present on Jan 6th that would re-emerge in the event of another Trump presidency. Trump is not a democrat, nor are those backing him.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
A few.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack#Participants,_groups,_and_criminal_charges ..The "ordinary people" argument misses, or at least obscures, the extent to which the Capitol rioters were linked to dangerous groups and ideas.... at least 280 of the individuals charged with committing crimes on Jan. 6 were associated with extremist groups or conspiratorial movements. This includes 78 defendants who had links to the Proud Boys, a group with a history of violence; 37 members of the anti-government Oath Keepers militia; 31 individuals who embraced the similarly anti-government and militant views of the Three Percenters movement; and 92 defendants who promoted aspects of QAnon.... These 280 individuals make up approximately 35 percent of the Capitol defendants. ..
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
Jesus.
Tangentially relevant - the film The Painted Bird is on Prime Video at the moment moment (young Jewish boy's experiences in ww2 Poland). I think it is staggeringly good but viewer discretion strongly advised, I didn't think you could legally film some of that stuff
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
Just get yourself informed. You're embarrassing yourself.
(First time I've ever been included in the PB/Graun crowd pearl clutchers! I just find the guy a complete grotesque. He appalls me on every metric I hold dear.)
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
That *is* the classic tale of the disaffected & marginalised in the US. Where criminalisation of the underclass is system - once you have one conviction, it is nearly impossible to access "normal world". So, you do crime to live.
You seem not to have noticed that he was the leader of a violent far-right organisation. Maybe also the classic tale of the disaffected and marginalised, but Trump is happy to have their support and encourage them.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
Jesus.
He called to say he's busy counting votes in California and can't come.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Except we don't really know how US polling companies have corrected for their errors last time around. Representative sampling is likely to be much more difficult in the US than it is here, and pollsters are shooting at a moving target.
I think all we can realistically say is that there's a large degree of uncertainty about how accurate US poll predictions are.
IANAE in statistics but I suspect the trends in the various polls are more useful than simple 'snapshots'.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
Jesus.
Tangentially relevant - the film The Painted Bird is on Prime Video at the moment moment (young Jewish boy's experiences in ww2 Poland). I think it is staggeringly good but viewer discretion strongly advised, I didn't think you could legally film some of that stuff
I'm surprised that you're surprised. This is the bunch that prosecuted one of their own concentration camp commandants for sadism, murder and theft. One of the "proofs" was trying the poison, claimed to have been used on a witness, on a prisoner in said concentration camp.
Yup - they "proved" a charge of murder, by testing a poison on a random human being.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Those who are minimising the danger of Trump and are dismissing the 1930s might like to consider a question. If Trump is president, what % chance would you put on the USA meeting NATO treaty obligations if Russia walked into (for example) Estonia? Would it be significantly below 100%?
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
I would prefer if Oxfam donations went to helping the poor and projects to support them in the developing world rather than pushing socialism
I would have preferred if PPE contracts had been issued to bone fide manufacturers and importers of safety equipment rather than PPE experience -free friends and family of Ministers. But hey, you can't win 'em all.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
Just get yourself informed. You're embarrassing yourself.
(First time I've ever been included in the PB/Graun crowd pearl clutchers! I just find the guy a complete grotesque. He appalls me on every metric I hold dear.)
Of course and why wouldn't he but he was and seeks again to be the democratically elected POTUS. Which is what drives pearl clutchers on PB such as yourself wild.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
"the full power of the state was ranged against them." Apart from the power of the outgoing President. Who was, at the time, still President, and could legally call for assistance from both the civil power and the military.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
Jesus.
Tangentially relevant - the film The Painted Bird is on Prime Video at the moment moment (young Jewish boy's experiences in ww2 Poland). I think it is staggeringly good but viewer discretion strongly advised, I didn't think you could legally film some of that stuff
I'm surprised that you're surprised. This is the bunch that prosecuted one of their own concentration camp commandants for sadism, murder and theft. One of the "proofs" was trying the poison, claimed to have been used on a witness, on a prisoner in said concentration camp.
Yup - they "proved" a charge of murder, by testing a poison on a random human being.
Came across a nutter the other day who claimed that big pharma establish the LD50 for the poisons they sell in the most obvious way. On human populations.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
Germany 1930s comparisons are usually not great. Not to be invoked in discussing, say LD policy on site value rating or tuition fees. Once upon a time we would not have invoked 1930s comparisons about Putin. It is not wrong to do so now. The attempt to overturn the American election process is quite enough to add Trump to the 'possibles' list. His refusal to criticise Putin and equivocation about NATO doesn't help either.
The Enabling Act certainly had elements of Trump's lawfare on the 2020 election.
But Trump is too erratic to be considered a full Nazi. Even remembering that Hitler was pretty damn erratic, he never babbled about sharks.
"You know, I have one simple request, and that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!"
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Those who are minimising the danger of Trump and are dismissing the 1930s might like to consider a question. If Trump is president, what % chance would you put on the USA meeting NATO treaty obligations if Russia walked into (for example) Estonia? Would it be significantly below 100%?
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
There's a hamlet in Derbyshire called New York - just like the one in Ukraine. And one in Nidderdale. And one in East Lindsay.
And there's a Denver in Norfolk!
There is certainly a Philadelphia in South Yorkshire. Many of these tiny places are so named because prior to their settlement they were a distant corner of some farmer's land, who would name it after some impossibly far-flung place as mildly humourous nod to how distant it was.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
Jesus.
Tangentially relevant - the film The Painted Bird is on Prime Video at the moment moment (young Jewish boy's experiences in ww2 Poland). I think it is staggeringly good but viewer discretion strongly advised, I didn't think you could legally film some of that stuff
I'm surprised that you're surprised. This is the bunch that prosecuted one of their own concentration camp commandants for sadism, murder and theft. One of the "proofs" was trying the poison, claimed to have been used on a witness, on a prisoner in said concentration camp.
Yup - they "proved" a charge of murder, by testing a poison on a random human being.
Came across a nutter the other day who claimed that big pharma establish the LD50 for the poisons they sell in the most obvious way. On human populations.
Is LD50 still a test? In my student days it was used as a test for insulin 'purity', but the 50/50 were mice.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
This is too optimistic. Among the abundance of evidence a couple stand out: Systematic lying and reality distortion of a sort which makes Boris seem quite mainstream; and seeking to overturn an election process. Add to that a personality which should not be let loose anywhere close to real power. I think anyone who does not have 'Germany in the 1930s' feel about this is being unrealistic.
Another with the nazi comparisons. I don't think it's impossible to criticise Trump without drawing such analogies. Unless your aim is to further entrench the constituency with which he is evidently so popular.
Germany 1930s comparisons are usually not great. Not to be invoked in discussing, say LD policy on site value rating or tuition fees. Once upon a time we would not have invoked 1930s comparisons about Putin. It is not wrong to do so now. The attempt to overturn the American election process is quite enough to add Trump to the 'possibles' list. His refusal to criticise Putin and equivocation about NATO doesn't help either.
The Enabling Act certainly had elements of Trump's lawfare on the 2020 election.
But Trump is too erratic to be considered a full Nazi. Even remembering that Hitler was pretty damn erratic, he never babbled about sharks.
"You know, I have one simple request, and that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!"
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
1. Weaponsing the Department of Justice to go after anyone who has stood up to him and defended democracy.
2. Being a dictator from day one.
3. Project 2025.
You really should pay more attention to the intricacies.
I think this is more your prejudices than reality. "Being a dictator from day one" is equivalent to some of the wilder claims of anti-Brexiters. It is hyperbole.
America remains a democracy and actually decided to vote Trump out last time round and may now decide to vote him back in.
It is the PB/Graun crowd who clutch their pearls at democracy in action that I find objectionable.
Your complacency is bizarre. There was a clear danger present on Jan 6th that would re-emerge in the event of another Trump presidency. Trump is not a democrat, nor are those backing him.
You seriously think that? The entire might of the United States armed forces against some guy in a hat.
PB really does need to understand how people in real life work.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Nate Silver's adjustment for a post-convention bounce puts the result on a knife-edge.
That seems very plausible to me. The state polling also looks a lot tighter than the national polling, and RFK dropping out does seem to have helped Trump.
As I understand it this is comparing one week in 2024 with the "equivalent" (though this is the week Biden quit and was likely to be replaced by Harris) week in 2020. Now maybe these numbers are a promising sign, but it is fairly meaningless to look at just one week. And it's often a bad sign when there is just an apparently impressive percentage increase but no absolute numbers attached. +175.8% on a small number is still a small number.
There was also the info a couple of weeks back that someone had posted a thread on TwiX titled 'Can my husband find out it how I voted', (showing that they couldn't) which had 8 million views in less than a week. Those husbands aren't going to be Harris voters, are they?
But their wives are....
(and still not fixed the running order of posts I see - grrr......)
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Did you notice all those people in dark uniforms carrying guns who were trying to stop the marchers.
That was the United States.
What if you "somehow succeeded" in scoring the winning penalty at the next world cup final. Your family would be very proud.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Did you notice all those people in dark uniforms carrying guns who were trying to stop the marchers.
That was the United States.
What if you "somehow succeeded" in scoring the winning penalty at the next world cup final. Your family would be very proud.
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
"Latest polling has Trump closing." Citation required.
Because:
Latest Fox News polls in the sunbelt (by Interactive Polls): all good news for Harris
Georgia: Harris 50% Trump 48% (Harris by 2% - was Trump leading by 6% in previous poll when Biden) Arizona: Harris 50% Trump 49% (Harris by 1% - was Trump leading by 5%) Nevada: Harris 50% Trump 48% (Harris by 2% - was Trump leading by 5%) North Carolina: Harris 49% Trump 50% Trump by 1% - (was Trump leading by 5%)
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
"the full power of the state was ranged against them." Apart from the power of the outgoing President. Who was, at the time, still President, and could legally call for assistance from both the civil power and the military.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
I think the problem you face is that every time you compare Trump with the Nazis you do your cause a disservice and are likely to do more damage than harm to your cause.
Or perhaps you could organise a letter-writing campaign to point out to the Americans how misguided they are.
Just to be clear - as I can see how my comment (intended simply as a reductio regarding you "it was political expression") might have given you that impression - I don't like comparing Trump to Hitler, and try to avoid its, as I don't think it's either accurate or particularly useful.
He's obviously fascinated by authoritarianism, and is happy to use racist tropes for political advantage, but so are plenty of other authoritarians. Hitler evidently deeply believed in, and was motivated by the idea of race war; it defined him. I'm not sure that Trump believes anything at all.
Trump's thing is that he's a brilliant demagogue, but on his own, I don't think he ever had any real program for government, other than an impatience for institutions, and anything that might personally impact him (taxes on rich people, for example).
But the politically motived who surround him definitely have a program, which he's quite obviously happy to empower. As we saw, for example, with his judicial appointments. And this time around, there's no old guard GOP in the team to get in the way.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Did you notice all those people in dark uniforms carrying guns who were trying to stop the marchers.
That was the United States.
What if you "somehow succeeded" in scoring the winning penalty at the next world cup final. Your family would be very proud.
I don't think the FA is claiming that I did score the winning penalty and that England are rightfully champions.
Also I'm not commander in chief of the US armed forces.
I'm not sure if you're just trolling, or if you have just taken leave of your senses.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
I think the problem you face is that every time you compare Trump with the Nazis you do your cause a disservice and are likely to do more damage than harm to your cause.
Or perhaps you could organise a letter-writing campaign to point out to the Americans how misguided they are.
Just to be clear - as I can see how my comment (intended simply as a reductio regarding you "it was political expression") might have given you that impression - I don't like comparing Trump to Hitler, and try to avoid its, as I don't think it's either accurate or particularly useful.
He's obviously fascinated by authoritarianism, and is happy to use racist tropes for political advantage, but so are plenty of other authoritarians. Hitler evidently deeply believed in, and was motivated by the idea of race war; it defined him. I'm not sure that Trump believes anything at all.
Trump's thing is that he's a brilliant demagogue, but on his own, I don't think he ever had any real program for government, other than an impatience for institutions, and anything that might personally impact him (taxes on rich people, for example).
But the politically motived who surround him definitely have a program, which he's quite obviously happy to empower. As we saw, for example, with his judicial appointments. And this time around, there's no old guard GOP in the team to get in the way.
At least taxes on rich people are not likely to impact the old fool personally for much longer.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
Yes absolutely but the clue is in your post. "The cops were standing between them and the Capitol".
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Those who are minimising the danger of Trump and are dismissing the 1930s might like to consider a question. If Trump is president, what % chance would you put on the USA meeting NATO treaty obligations if Russia walked into (for example) Estonia? Would it be significantly below 100%?
Russia isn't walking into anywhere except Ukrainian shit pits at the rate of one village every six months so it's a risible question but I wouldn't rate the chances of Harris or Starmer committing to WW3 over fucking Tallinn at 100% either.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
Yes absolutely but the clue is in your post. "The cops were standing between them and the Capitol".
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
I think the problem you face is that every time you compare Trump with the Nazis you do your cause a disservice and are likely to do more damage than harm to your cause.
Or perhaps you could organise a letter-writing campaign to point out to the Americans how misguided they are.
Just to be clear - as I can see how my comment (intended simply as a reductio regarding you "it was political expression") might have given you that impression - I don't like comparing Trump to Hitler, and try to avoid its, as I don't think it's either accurate or particularly useful.
He's obviously fascinated by authoritarianism, and is happy to use racist tropes for political advantage, but so are plenty of other authoritarians. Hitler evidently deeply believed in, and was motivated by the idea of race war; it defined him. I'm not sure that Trump believes anything at all.
Trump's thing is that he's a brilliant demagogue, but on his own, I don't think he ever had any real program for government, other than an impatience for institutions, and anything that might personally impact him (taxes on rich people, for example).
But the politically motived who surround him definitely have a program, which he's quite obviously happy to empower. As we saw, for example, with his judicial appointments. And this time around, there's no old guard GOP in the team to get in the way.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Kristallnacht was also political expression. What's the point you're trying to make ?
Kristallnacht was just an attempt at mass window cleaning that went a bit wrong.
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
The insurance payout didn't go to the victims, it went to the Nazi government.
In the end, yes. But the fact that they thought they had an issue was interesting - the reverence for process.
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
There is an awful lot of stuff on the Holocaust and insurance claims that is macabre and weirdly interesting. I did some work on it back in the day. In the end they set up this thing to handle claims: https://icheic.ushmm.org/about.html
Not so fun fact (not confirmed): Allianz apparently used to decline payouts to families of Holocaust victims due to the absence of a death certificate.
Not so fun fact 2 (confirmed - but I can’t find the page): Prudential used to have a webpage with the names of Polish policyholders they had on record from a Polish subsidiary they owned prewar. Descendants could claim directly via them. Prudential didn’t have all the names of the policyholder as their offices in Poland were burnt down. There was a striking picture of the fire on the website. The only names they had were details that had been transferred by chance to the London HO (or something like that).
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
Yes absolutely but the clue is in your post. "The cops were standing between them and the Capitol".
But why did they want to go to the Capitol? Just to observe the ceremony?
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
Yes absolutely but the clue is in your post. "The cops were standing between them and the Capitol".
But why did they want to go to the Capitol? Just to observe the ceremony?
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
Yes absolutely but the clue is in your post. "The cops were standing between them and the Capitol".
The full power of the state seemed a bit shit at stopping a bunch of no-hopers confused about their aims in that case.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Nate Silver's adjustment for a post-convention bounce puts the result on a knife-edge.
That seems very plausible to me. The state polling also looks a lot tighter than the national polling, and RFK dropping out does seem to have helped Trump.
A lot of wishful thinking in evidence.
Some might argue that the "wishful thinking" is quite the other way!!
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Latest poll is Big Village 23-28 August sample size 1,511, of Likely Voters. Harris 50% Trump 43% Not closing.
Comments
I was very vocal in trying to explain to PB some of the reasons for the 2011 riots in the face of, frankly, disappointing if typical PB "lock 'em all up" rhetoric (a good place to start: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/46297/1/Reading the riots(published).pdf) and likewise the Southport riots and Jan 6th.
I don't think many on PB really understand some of the motivating forces for people voting for Trump. I posted a good article recently about it and will try to look it out again.
The second album was ok. Everything they have done since has been - well, not awful, just boring.
I do understand the enthusiasm. The first album was brilliant. Once you've achieved that you can enthuse a lot of people by getting them to suspend disbelief and have them pretend that the latest preheated noise youe serving up is almost as good as "Columbia".
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
What's the point you're trying to make ?
Serious note: it was an example of the weird combination of legal paperwork and demented lynch law racist, murderous violence that characterised the Third Reich, that the huge insurance claims from Kristallnacht were an issue.
Or perhaps you could organise a letter-writing campaign to point out to the Americans how misguided they are.
When Arrow Cross (the ultra Nazis in Hungary) invaded the Opera House to demand the release of their arrested leader. Horthy personally knocked down a couple of them....
"....and he [Horthy] had another by the throat, slapping his face and shouting what I learned afterward was: "So you would betray your country, would you?" The Regent was alone, but he had the situation in hand.... The whole incident was typical not only of the Regent's deep hatred of alien doctrine, but of the kind of man he is. Although he was around seventy-two years of age, it did not occur to him to ask for help; he went right ahead like a skipper with a mutiny on his hands."
Note: I generally find Trump supporters staggeringly bad at answering difficult questions about stuff like 6th January.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
Your problem is that you're flailing around trying to say 'nothing to see here', without much of an idea of what's going on in the US.
And that you want to have it both ways, commenting on US politics, while decrying anyone else who does so, if they don't share your above the fray pose.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
Which is why I respect what the Biden administration has tried to do - to try and drain the real swamps of post industrial decline.
Just don't inflict your "gripping tension" on the rest of us...
Big fan of Sayers, so he went on a Wimsey.
Edit: And I've already been caught out, posting a response to a comment that was actually posted ages ago when the conversation has moved on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX0iAmz9iLM
(First time I've ever been included in the PB/Graun crowd pearl clutchers! I just find the guy a complete grotesque. He appalls me on every metric I hold dear.)
But Trump is too erratic to be considered a full Nazi. Even remembering that Hitler was pretty damn erratic, he never babbled about sharks.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
At some point, if it quacks like a duck, goose-steps like a duck, invades countries under the banner of national expansion like a duck....
My 1950s built ex-council house (incidentally, with some really shoddy bits from its original construction I've had to fix) with newish but cheap double glazing and modest levels of insulation is fairly pleasant most of the year round. To get it to match up to modern insulation requirements (eg. triple glazing) would have payback times in the order of 100 years.
From my parents experience, we're spending tens of thousands upfront to achieve monthly savings of £10-20/month - this may be good for net zero, but the effects on the real world cost of housing are large.
2. Was clearly a joke that’s been taken way out of context. He said he’d be a dictator on day one, for one day only.
3. This is a think tank wish list, nothing to do with Trump. They didn’t even register the domain https://www.project2025.com/
Goosey Goosey Gander
Wither dost though wander?
Only through the Marchland*
Please excuse my blunder!
*'Ukraine' means 'borderland.'
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Representative sampling is likely to be much more difficult in the US than it is here, and pollsters are shooting at a moving target.
I think all we can realistically say is that there's a large degree of uncertainty about how accurate US poll predictions are.
Harris is leading nationally by 3.6% on 538, and by 1.6% in Pennsylvania, which gives her an EC lead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack#Participants,_groups,_and_criminal_charges
..The "ordinary people" argument misses, or at least obscures, the extent to which the Capitol rioters were linked to dangerous groups and ideas.... at least 280 of the individuals charged with committing crimes on Jan. 6 were associated with extremist groups or conspiratorial movements. This includes 78 defendants who had links to the Proud Boys, a group with a history of violence; 37 members of the anti-government Oath Keepers militia; 31 individuals who embraced the similarly anti-government and militant views of the Three Percenters movement; and 92 defendants who promoted aspects of QAnon.... These 280 individuals make up approximately 35 percent of the Capitol defendants. ..
Some say that a factor in the location of the death camps was to invalidate life insurance policies. Which didn't cover death aboard.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
(Would seem to make no sense, based on the recent polling)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_College_forecasts
Tangentially relevant - the film The Painted Bird is on Prime Video at the moment moment (young Jewish boy's experiences in ww2 Poland). I think it is staggeringly good but viewer discretion strongly advised, I didn't think you could legally film some of that stuff
IANAE in statistics but I suspect the trends in the various polls are more useful than simple 'snapshots'.
Yup - they "proved" a charge of murder, by testing a poison on a random human being.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Apart from the power of the outgoing President. Who was, at the time, still President, and could legally call for assistance from both the civil power and the military.
Many of these tiny places are so named because prior to their settlement they were a distant corner of some farmer's land, who would name it after some impossibly far-flung place as mildly humourous nod to how distant it was.
PB really does need to understand how people in real life work.
That seems very plausible to me. The state polling also looks a lot tighter than the national polling, and RFK dropping out does seem to have helped Trump.
A lot of wishful thinking in evidence.
As I understand it this is comparing one week in 2024 with the "equivalent" (though this is the week Biden quit and was likely to be replaced by Harris) week in 2020. Now maybe these numbers are a promising sign, but it is fairly meaningless to look at just one week. And it's often a bad sign when there is just an apparently impressive percentage increase but no absolute numbers attached. +175.8% on a small number is still a small number.
The settings are correct:
I will submit a support ticket.
That was the United States.
What if you "somehow succeeded" in scoring the winning penalty at the next world cup final. Your family would be very proud.
Trump 74 million votes
Because:
Latest Fox News polls in the sunbelt (by Interactive Polls): all good news for Harris
Georgia: Harris 50% Trump 48% (Harris by 2% - was Trump leading by 6% in previous poll when Biden)
Arizona: Harris 50% Trump 49% (Harris by 1% - was Trump leading by 5%)
Nevada: Harris 50% Trump 48% (Harris by 2% - was Trump leading by 5%)
North Carolina: Harris 49% Trump 50% Trump by 1% - (was Trump leading by 5%)
He's obviously fascinated by authoritarianism, and is happy to use racist tropes for political advantage, but so are plenty of other authoritarians. Hitler evidently deeply believed in, and was motivated by the idea of race war; it defined him. I'm not sure that Trump believes anything at all.
Trump's thing is that he's a brilliant demagogue, but on his own, I don't think he ever had any real program for government, other than an impatience for institutions, and anything that might personally impact him (taxes on rich people, for example).
But the politically motived who surround him definitely have a program, which he's quite obviously happy to empower. As we saw, for example, with his judicial appointments.
And this time around, there's no old guard GOP in the team to get in the way.
Also I'm not commander in chief of the US armed forces.
I'm not sure if you're just trolling, or if you have just taken leave of your senses.
Trump 232 Electoral Votes
Not so fun fact (not confirmed): Allianz apparently used to decline payouts to families of Holocaust victims due to the absence of a death certificate.
Not so fun fact 2 (confirmed - but I can’t find the page): Prudential used to have a webpage with the names of Polish policyholders they had on record from a Polish subsidiary they owned prewar. Descendants could claim directly via them. Prudential didn’t have all the names of the policyholder as their offices in Poland were burnt down. There was a striking picture of the fire on the website. The only names they had were details that had been transferred by chance to the London HO (or something like that).
Indeed, they were extremely horny.
Harris 50% Trump 43%
Not closing.