Could Trump be made president by the House of Representatives? – politicalbetting.com
Could Trump be made president by the House of Representatives? – politicalbetting.com
It’s late on 6th November 2024. CNN’s election map guru, John King, has finally filled in the slowest counting counties in the crucial swing states. The result is in…
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.
On your substantive point, the RFK thing only becomes an issue in one of two scenarios: (1) He wins a state and thereby causes neither side to hit the 270 mark or (2) faithless electors cause both parties to fall short, and he has more faithless electors than any other candidate.
1) Will not happen.
2) Could happen whether he's a candidate or not. Colin Powell in theory came third in 2016 not having even been a primary candidate.
So if he's leaving his name on the ballot for that reason he's an even bigger fool than I thought he was.
Otherwise, an interesting read, thanks for the effort. Permutations as to how a tie could arise would be useful if anyone has any?
A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.
There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.
So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).
This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.
*Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.
H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.
Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’
First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author
Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.
The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.
Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.
He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/
Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?
(In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/aug/26/my-brother-has-fallen-victim-to-the-retirement-home-transfer-fee-money-grab
Why would anyone do the hard work of innovation and searching for productivity gains, when you can just sink your money into feudal moneyspinners?
For one awful moment I thought it said "Socialist".
Harris would need a second term.
Expert the older MAGA friendly judges to retire and be replaced with younger equivalents.
The debate in a fortnight is the last chance for Don Old Trump to show he still has the chops. Harris could flub it in the big set piece. But she didn't at the Convention. And the only reason Trump didn't get roasted following his poor performance in the first debate was because Biden's very poor performance meant nobody was discussing anything else.
But Harris's people will be rerunning it - and taking great comfort. She is a courtroom performer. This is her world. The expectation should be on her to eviscarate a Trump who has been barking mad on his recent public outings. We are still waiting for the post-Convention polling. But Trump has tweeted about how he expects her to get a decent bounce. Which means Trump will go into the debate needing to be the Comeback Kid. Trump has been bleeding support rather than building it.
We'll see, but I don't expect November to be close.
Not my bag!
All same as 2020 except:
Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Harris NOT Biden wins N Carolina
etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump
Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/
'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.
Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.
“It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'
Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all
Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
Edit - also, it looks as though Harris is on course to take Maine's second district anyway, so the timing point is moot.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4841482-harris-leads-trump-maine-district/
Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.
For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.
The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.
Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.
If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.
'far better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it and remove all doubt.'
Though in that scenario it would be President Vance, not President Trump. Though I guess Vance could name Trump as Veep and then resign...
They don't leave unless they're confident they'll be replaced by someone they approve of.
A split senate makes that replacement harder.
I don't know what the answer is. Privacy is important; but people seem to screech more about their privacy than ever, whilst willingly giving up that privacy in ever-increasing amounts.
Anyway IF ME-2 is in play for Harris, then that allows a whole load more options for a tie
eg Trump flips PA, WI and NV and Harris wins ME-2
I've also been signed off work due to poor mental health. It wasn't much fun.
But, yeah, convince yourself those are the real problems compared to the rent-seeking that is strangling the life out of the British economy.
Anyway post 1997 we had that free to view soft porn channel, 5 I think it was called. Red Shoes Diaries anyone?
And that assumes Macron can bring what looks like a Eurosceptic parliament along for pan-EU action, but others might have been following French politics more closely.
'Do you put all your politicians in prison the moment they're elected?'
'Oh yes.'
'Why?'
'Because it saves time.'
Silently sifting through papers sealed with a crown
Admiral Lord Fisher is writing to Churchill, calling for more Dreadnoughts
The houses in Hackney are all falling down
And my grandmother sits on the beach in the days before the war
Young girl writing her diary, while time seems to pause
Watching the waves as they come one by one to die on the shore
Kissing the feet of England
Oh the lights of Saint Petersburg come on as usual
Although the air seems charged with a strangeness of late, yet there's nothing to touch
And the Tsar in his great Winter Palace has called for the foreign news
An archduke was shot down in Bosnia, but nothing much
And my grandmother sits before the mirror in the days before the war
Smiling a secret smile as she goes to the door
And the young man rides off in his carriage, homeward once more
And the sun sets gently on England
Ah the day we decided to drive down to Worthing, it rained and rained
Giving us only a minute to stand by the sea
And crunching my way through the shingles, it seemed there was nothing changed
Though the jetty was maybe more scarred that I'd known it to be
And Mandi and I stood and stared at the overcast sky
Where ten years ago we had stood, my Grandfather and I
And the waves still rushed in as they had the year that he died
And it seemed that my lifetime was shrunken and lost in the tide
As it rose and fell on the side of England
Here's hoping Harris wins by a large margin.
Moreover, the Democrats won it in the 2022 midterms.
Germany, Biden and the whole civilised world needs to give Ukraine more weapons, and permission to hit these bombers wherever they are in Russia. We're asking Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind their back.
Damn the Russians. Damn them all to Hell. Every single man, woman and child; Every single one of them, until they renounce Putin and fascism.
Red Shoe Diaries ! (Available on Amazon btw).
Red shoes have several meanings. My photo quota for the day - the Virgin Mary wearing Red Shoes.
On topic with current events, because it's an 11C mosaic called The Virgin Orans in St Sophia Cathedral, Kyiv.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Sophia_Cathedral,_Kyiv
https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201311140142122221130522262251301421014224231102214252&party=T&year=2024
Of the swing states GOP = PA + MI ; Dem = GA + AZ + WI + NV.
Pretty unlikely, I'd say.
Those fearing the rise of workers' power thought that would be truncated by a swift victory - big business saw the opportunity to make money and ultimately, as we saw, most ordinary people wanted war. The patriotic and nationalistic propaganda drummed into generations of ordinary people made them want to fight.
Indeed, war was seen as a glorious and wonderful thing - the reality would be very different. It wouldn't be the great cavalry and infantry movements of past conflicts - of course, anyone who had followed the recent Balkan Wars closely could have seen what was going to happen.
There's no 'if'; the stakes are indeed high.
Impeachment of Thomas doesn't much matter if the Senate won't convict.
How is Tibbles today?
On the header, transfer of the decision to either state-government forum or to the House was part of Trump's strategy to corrupt the 2020 Election.
This time they have been trying to get partisans onto local Election monitoring bodies, where they can (it is hoped) simply refuse to certify the result of the count. Last time aiui Courts refused to tolerate such activity, so it rolls into Trump's corruption of the Judicial system too, and also into the widespread efforts essentially to bully voters likely to support Democrats off the ballot (eg True the Vote and many other bodies).
Likely? IMO probably not in the end.
https://www.pollocks-coventgarden.co.uk/products/shakespeares-toy-theatre-with-midsummer-nights-dream/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2gpgppg57o
Bloody marvellous!
The President could send a mob into Congress to tear up the Constitution, kill his own Vice President, jeopardise the lives of those in Congress and get 7 people killed along the way and the Senate won't vote to convict.
It's cute to suggest there's even a chance of Thomas being convicted for merely being a criminal.
Mike Tapp tells the presidential nominee’s campaign team they must listen to what hard-working people want"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/25/labour-mp-kamala-harris-mike-tapp-immigration-worries/
But, at risk of sounding like an Unherd columnist, you may be right. Eyeballs concentrated on fewer options meant more money spent on the programmes that were broadcast. And I'm pretty sure that a nation where most people watched the same evening news bulletins (which knew they had to try and be neutralish, and were under massive scrutiny to be so) was better-informed than one where we all choose our own news.
Same for local radio. Having lots of different Radio Yourtowns was probably a better service than what we have now.
No way of putting the genie back in the bottle, though.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-superstar-sahra-wagenknecht-far-left-far-right/
Fascinating piece on Wagenknecht and the BSW who seem to be the coming force in German politics.
This is one of the reasons why the terms "left" and "right" are so devalued as to be meaningless in modern political discourse though obviously they are still used as perjoratives by some.
Over here, I see the Reform voters and membership as much more aligned to Wagenknecht than the current Conservative Party. The Reform leadership (Farage, Tice) are basically Thatcherites but Anderson (to me) is a kind of Wagenknecht type figure - anti immigration, socially conservative, patriotic but wanting money to be spent in areas like his and similar WWC places (I'll throw out Great Yarmouth and Basildon as two other examples). Indeed, on that part of it, Anderson seems to be a traditional socialist interventionist (no small state for him?)
I get annoyed when people call Reform "right wing" and align it with the Conservatives - it's not and they won't. I'd argue further the 25% of 2019 Conservative voters who voted Reform in July were more likely supporters of Boris Johnson's levelling up aganda. Indeed, the distance between Johnson and Wagenknecht isn't great either. This kind of social conservative nationalist anti-immigrant agenda sits across from the more internationalist globalist and liberal aspect of what could be described as the more traditional social democratic parties (Owenite social democracy, I'd also argue, was the antecedant of Reform and BSW in Germany).
If that's what you think of as a fault line in modern politics, there you have it.
What I find fascinating is almost no one is advocating small state traditional conservatism. The argument is more over where and how the State intervenes - spending money in WWC areas for example. Stodge's Fifth Law of Politics states politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. If a gap exists, someone will try to fill it.
As for the SC throwing out election results in favour of Trump, essentially the court has the same ideological split as in 2020. And they didn’t do that then .
However even then Harris likely wins Nebraska 02 as Biden did where she is ahead and given Walz was born and raised in Nebraska to get her to 270. If it went to the House on 269 each then Trump likely wins as even if the Democrats take the House back the GOP likely hold a majority of state delegations
https://www.270towin.com/electoral-college-tie-combinations/
I listed a handful of them earlier
Of course it's pretty unlikely, but by no means impossible.
And its irrelevant that the Dems won the House seat in 2022 as they also won it in 2020 by a larger margin.
Its rep Jared Golden is very centrist, he's closer to the traditional GOP than many current GOP politicians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Golden
Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.
Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.
Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.
So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.
Perhaps nearly getting trepanned by a 5.56x45 has done his head in. I still can't believe that useless tosser missed the shot.
You seem to hanker for a past that never existed.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/
has Harris 8 ahead.
Though Nebraska Republicans might still give it to Trump anyway:
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/
Michigan or New Hampshire
on current polls as Harris
leads more there than she
does nationally. So to get to a
tie Trump would likely need to win Nebraska 02
PS This implies that Harris should be at 1.72 on Betfair, not 2.00