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Could Trump be made president by the House of Representatives? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited September 29 in General
imageCould Trump be made president by the House of Representatives? – politicalbetting.com

It’s late on 6th November 2024. CNN’s election map guru, John King, has finally filled in the slowest counting counties in the crucial swing states. The result is in…

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,422
    First.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    edited August 26
    And neither Trump nor Biden has an electoral college majority.

    Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.

    On your substantive point, the RFK thing only becomes an issue in one of two scenarios: (1) He wins a state and thereby causes neither side to hit the 270 mark or (2) faithless electors cause both parties to fall short, and he has more faithless electors than any other candidate.

    1) Will not happen.

    2) Could happen whether he's a candidate or not. Colin Powell in theory came third in 2016 not having even been a primary candidate.

    So if he's leaving his name on the ballot for that reason he's an even bigger fool than I thought he was.

    Otherwise, an interesting read, thanks for the effort. Permutations as to how a tie could arise would be useful if anyone has any?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525
    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    edited August 26

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    edited August 26
    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    Morning, Mr. President. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    edited August 26

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    Feudal Britain alive and well.
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/aug/26/my-brother-has-fallen-victim-to-the-retirement-home-transfer-fee-money-grab

    Why would anyone do the hard work of innovation and searching for productivity gains, when you can just sink your money into feudal moneyspinners?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    Feudal Britain alive and well.
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/aug/26/my-brother-has-fallen-victim-to-the-retirement-home-transfer-fee-money-grab

    Why would anyone do the hard work of innovation and searching for productivity gains, when you can just sink your money into feudal moneyspinners?

    I always knew there was a good reason to avoid McCarthy and Stone.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,281

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    "Socialite"? That's alright then.

    For one awful moment I thought it said "Socialist".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
    Thomas is the eldest, at 76. It's not so old if he's determined to wait for a Republican President to replace him. If Harris wins I would have thought it likely that only Sotomayor will be replaced.

    Harris would need a second term.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
    If Trump is re-elected, the Court will be used, front and centre to overcome any obstacles to whatever he wants to do.

    Expert the older MAGA friendly judges to retire and be replaced with younger equivalents.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    Some people have a strange idea of fun. Can't imagine finding time, or inclination, to share state secrets with a frisky young mistress.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,030

    The debate in a fortnight is the last chance for Don Old Trump to show he still has the chops.

    If he turns up
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,687

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    Some people have a strange idea of fun. Can't imagine finding time, or inclination, to share state secrets with a frisky young mistress.
    "Now you've told me all those state secrets, you have been a naughty boy, haven't you?"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525
    Scott_xP said:

    The debate in a fortnight is the last chance for Don Old Trump to show he still has the chops.

    If he turns up
    Wouldn't that be worse? Harris sits there for ten minutes then says her opponent is obviously Frit!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    Some people have a strange idea of fun. Can't imagine finding time, or inclination, to share state secrets with a frisky young mistress.
    "Now you've told me all those state secrets, you have been a naughty boy, haven't you?"
    Hmmm.
    Not my bag!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    edited August 26

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Harris NOT Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,837
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
    Alito and Thomas will cling on for dear life until it looks like a GOP president will be able to appoint their replacement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    edited August 26
    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!

    Edit - also, it looks as though Harris is on course to take Maine's second district anyway, so the timing point is moot.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4841482-harris-leads-trump-maine-district/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    Some people have a strange idea of fun. Can't imagine finding time, or inclination, to share state secrets with a frisky young mistress.
    Apparently she was a serious lady, keenly interested in politics. Perhaps she would have been on PB had she beel alive a century later, at least before it became so lubricious of late.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!
    oops
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    ...

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    Some people have a strange idea of fun. Can't imagine finding time, or inclination, to share state secrets with a frisky young mistress.
    "Now you've told me all those state secrets, you have been a naughty boy, haven't you?"
    Reads more like Robin Asquith, or at least his seminal character, than Herbert Asquith.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!
    oops
    If Biden wins North Carolina that will certainly enliven the electoral college!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    ...

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    Some people have a strange idea of fun. Can't imagine finding time, or inclination, to share state secrets with a frisky young mistress.
    "Now you've told me all those state secrets, you have been a naughty boy, haven't you?"
    Reads more like Robin Asquith, or at least his seminal character, than Herbert Asquith.
    Asquith was more of a semenal character.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515
    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,074

    Feudal Britain alive and well.
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/aug/26/my-brother-has-fallen-victim-to-the-retirement-home-transfer-fee-money-grab

    Why would anyone do the hard work of innovation and searching for productivity gains, when you can just sink your money into feudal moneyspinners?

    Much better to be a public sector worker and get huge pay rises despite declining productivity or just give up entirely and get a doctor to sign you off with anxiety, stress and back pain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    Scott_xP said:

    The debate in a fortnight is the last chance for Don Old Trump to show he still has the chops.

    If he turns up
    Wouldn't that be worse? Harris sits there for ten minutes then says her opponent is obviously Frit!
    I think Norman Tebbitt's point may be relevant here:

    'far better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it and remove all doubt.'
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,913
    Good piece @rottenborough - its the Veep scenario. Brilliantly played by them - an electoral college tie, a count the votes / stop the vote fiasco in Nevada, a tie in Congress (!) and finally the presidency decided by the Senate.

    Though in that scenario it would be President Vance, not President Trump. Though I guess Vance could name Trump as Veep and then resign...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    Good piece @rottenborough - its the Veep scenario. Brilliantly played by them - an electoral college tie, a count the votes / stop the vote fiasco in Nevada, a tie in Congress (!) and finally the presidency decided by the Senate.

    Though in that scenario it would be President Vance, not President Trump. Though I guess Vance could name Trump as Veep and then resign...

    The Senate votes for the Vice Presidency by head, not by state delegation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    FPT
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone agree with me that we ought to go back to having 4 TV channels in the UK, like we did between 1982 and 1997?

    We had more than four tv channels between 1982 and 1997.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
    Ginsburg was on SCOTUS until her death at 87, Kennedy retired at 82, Stevens retired at 90, Blackmun retired at 85.

    They don't leave unless they're confident they'll be replaced by someone they approve of.

    A split senate makes that replacement harder.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,056
    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    That's the odd thing about the Great War. It came out of nowhere, and ended equally precipitately, with four years of poetry and slaughter in between.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888

    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.

    Hmmm. Reeks a little of the old Clipper Chip debacle.

    I don't know what the answer is. Privacy is important; but people seem to screech more about their privacy than ever, whilst willingly giving up that privacy in ever-increasing amounts.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!

    Edit - also, it looks as though Harris is on course to take Maine's second district anyway, so the timing point is moot.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4841482-harris-leads-trump-maine-district/
    One poll of 400 people shows a 5 point lead. In 2020 Trump won by 7.4%

    Anyway IF ME-2 is in play for Harris, then that allows a whole load more options for a tie
    eg Trump flips PA, WI and NV and Harris wins ME-2
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    FPT

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone agree with me that we ought to go back to having 4 TV channels in the UK, like we did between 1982 and 1997?

    We had more than four tv channels between 1982 and 1997.
    You mean Sky etc.? 1990s joke: What's grey and hangs off a satellite dish, answer, a council house.

    Anyway post 1997 we had that free to view soft porn channel, 5 I think it was called. Red Shoes Diaries anyone?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,056

    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.

    Good luck with not bringing the American government in to bat for its tech firms, which is most of them, the rest being Russian or Chinese.

    And that assumes Macron can bring what looks like a Eurosceptic parliament along for pan-EU action, but others might have been following French politics more closely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,405
    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    The Edwardian Liberals were an odd bunch. There was also the serial paederast, Lewis Harcourt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,056
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    The Edwardian Liberals were an odd bunch. There was also the serial paederast, Lewis Harcourt.
    Jeremy Thorpe, Cyril Smith, and Charlie Kennedy for the drinking classes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888

    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.

    Good luck with not bringing the American government in to bat for its tech firms, which is most of them, the rest being Russian or Chinese.

    And that assumes Macron can bring what looks like a Eurosceptic parliament along for pan-EU action, but others might have been following French politics more closely.
    Such regulations might as much be in the interests of the US government as it is for the French. See the Clipper Chip in the 1990s.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,405
    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    What's clear as the crisis unfolded in Summer 1914, is how amateurish and inept the various Prime Ministers, and foreign ministers were. Europe needed ministers of the calibre of Castlereagh, Talleyrand, and Metternich, but there were none.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,405

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    The Edwardian Liberals were an odd bunch. There was also the serial paederast, Lewis Harcourt.
    Jeremy Thorpe, Cyril Smith, and Charlie Kennedy for the drinking classes.
    My impression of the Liberal Party of the 1970's is that most MP's ought to have been in prison.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    The Edwardian Liberals were an odd bunch. There was also the serial paederast, Lewis Harcourt.
    Jeremy Thorpe, Cyril Smith, and Charlie Kennedy for the drinking classes.
    My impression of the Liberal Party of the 1970's is that most MP's ought to have been in prison.
    The great Sir Terry Pratchett, in 'The Last Continent:'

    'Do you put all your politicians in prison the moment they're elected?'

    'Oh yes.'

    'Why?'

    'Because it saves time.'
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    edited August 26
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    The Edwardian Liberals were an odd bunch. There was also the serial paederast, Lewis Harcourt.
    Jeremy Thorpe, Cyril Smith, and Charlie Kennedy for the drinking classes.
    My impression of the Liberal Party of the 1970's is that most MP's ought to have been in prison.
    Surely only Bessell and Thorpe? Oh and Smith. No you are right, that was a significant proportion of the Parliamentary Liberal Party.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,281
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    What's clear as the crisis unfolded in Summer 1914, is how amateurish and inept the various Prime Ministers, and foreign ministers were. Europe needed ministers of the calibre of Castlereagh, Talleyrand, and Metternich, but there were none.
    Prince Louis Battenberg is burning the Admiralty lights down low
    Silently sifting through papers sealed with a crown
    Admiral Lord Fisher is writing to Churchill, calling for more Dreadnoughts
    The houses in Hackney are all falling down
    And my grandmother sits on the beach in the days before the war
    Young girl writing her diary, while time seems to pause
    Watching the waves as they come one by one to die on the shore
    Kissing the feet of England

    Oh the lights of Saint Petersburg come on as usual
    Although the air seems charged with a strangeness of late, yet there's nothing to touch
    And the Tsar in his great Winter Palace has called for the foreign news
    An archduke was shot down in Bosnia, but nothing much
    And my grandmother sits before the mirror in the days before the war
    Smiling a secret smile as she goes to the door
    And the young man rides off in his carriage, homeward once more
    And the sun sets gently on England

    Ah the day we decided to drive down to Worthing, it rained and rained
    Giving us only a minute to stand by the sea
    And crunching my way through the shingles, it seemed there was nothing changed
    Though the jetty was maybe more scarred that I'd known it to be
    And Mandi and I stood and stared at the overcast sky
    Where ten years ago we had stood, my Grandfather and I
    And the waves still rushed in as they had the year that he died
    And it seemed that my lifetime was shrunken and lost in the tide
    As it rose and fell on the side of England
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    The Democrats will win the House comfortably. So there will be a Democrat President. However the Senate may go Republican and they pick the Vice President in this situation. There now!!!!!
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Charlie Kennedy did not join Parliament till 1983
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    Interesting header @rottenborough, many thanks.

    Here's hoping Harris wins by a large margin.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,055
    theakes said:

    Charlie Kennedy did not join Parliament till 1983

    Is there a Charlie F Kennedy Jr?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!

    Edit - also, it looks as though Harris is on course to take Maine's second district anyway, so the timing point is moot.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4841482-harris-leads-trump-maine-district/
    One poll of 400 people shows a 5 point lead. In 2020 Trump won by 7.4%

    Anyway IF ME-2 is in play for Harris, then that allows a whole load more options for a tie
    eg Trump flips PA, WI and NV and Harris wins ME-2
    400 out of 688,000 isn't that small a sample size.

    Moreover, the Democrats won it in the 2022 midterms.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,861

    Interesting header @rottenborough, many thanks.

    Here's hoping Harris wins by a large margin.

    Indeed. I think that is only way to avert chaos and probably widespread violence. But seems unlikely at moment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    theakes said:

    The Democrats will win the House comfortably. So there will be a Democrat President. However the Senate may go Republican and they pick the Vice President in this situation. There now!!!!!

    Not if they vote by state delegation and Trump wins 26 or more states, as is possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,861

    Good piece @rottenborough - its the Veep scenario. Brilliantly played by them - an electoral college tie, a count the votes / stop the vote fiasco in Nevada, a tie in Congress (!) and finally the presidency decided by the Senate.

    Though in that scenario it would be President Vance, not President Trump. Though I guess Vance could name Trump as Veep and then resign...

    Thanks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411
    edited August 26
    Good morning everyone.

    Red Shoe Diaries ! (Available on Amazon btw).

    Red shoes have several meanings. My photo quota for the day - the Virgin Mary wearing Red Shoes.

    On topic with current events, because it's an 11C mosaic called The Virgin Orans in St Sophia Cathedral, Kyiv.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Sophia_Cathedral,_Kyiv
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    ydoethur said:

    And neither Trump nor Biden has an electoral college majority.

    Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.

    On your substantive point, the RFK thing only becomes an issue in one of two scenarios: (1) He wins a state and thereby causes neither side to hit the 270 mark or (2) faithless electors cause both parties to fall short, and he has more faithless electors than any other candidate.

    1) Will not happen.

    2) Could happen whether he's a candidate or not. Colin Powell in theory came third in 2016 not having even been a primary candidate.

    So if he's leaving his name on the ballot for that reason he's an even bigger fool than I thought he was.

    Otherwise, an interesting read, thanks for the effort. Permutations as to how a tie could arise would be useful if anyone has any?

    270toWin has a (the?) tie scenario:

    https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201311140142122221130522262251301421014224231102214252&party=T&year=2024

    Of the swing states GOP = PA + MI ; Dem = GA + AZ + WI + NV.

    Pretty unlikely, I'd say.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    'piecing together?' That's been known since the 1960s.

    Honestly, what else has he claimed to discover? That Asquith was a secret drinker? That Lloyd George made a few bob on the side from insider trading and selling peerages? That Oliver Baldwin was gay?

    (In fact, the only records we have of cabinet meetings from before 1915 is in Asquith's letters to Stanley. That's how we know that they didn't notice the outbreak of the First World War until it had happened.)
    What's clear as the crisis unfolded in Summer 1914, is how amateurish and inept the various Prime Ministers, and foreign ministers were. Europe needed ministers of the calibre of Castlereagh, Talleyrand, and Metternich, but there were none.
    The real problem was too many people wanted war and actually believed a short war would be positive for European economy and society.

    Those fearing the rise of workers' power thought that would be truncated by a swift victory - big business saw the opportunity to make money and ultimately, as we saw, most ordinary people wanted war. The patriotic and nationalistic propaganda drummed into generations of ordinary people made them want to fight.

    Indeed, war was seen as a glorious and wonderful thing - the reality would be very different. It wouldn't be the great cavalry and infantry movements of past conflicts - of course, anyone who had followed the recent Balkan Wars closely could have seen what was going to happen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,674
    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
    I'm not at all sure the courts would be sidelined under a Trump presidency. At least not the ones which help expand the power of the office - and we know the SC is already on board with that, sufficiently to ignore what the constitution says.

    There's no 'if'; the stakes are indeed high.

    Impeachment of Thomas doesn't much matter if the Senate won't convict.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,055
    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    It took us a long time before we could receive Chanel 4. All the Brookside chat just went over my head.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411
    edited August 26
    On a cool but sunny day yesterday, wasn't someone's cat sulking?

    How is Tibbles today?

    On the header, transfer of the decision to either state-government forum or to the House was part of Trump's strategy to corrupt the 2020 Election.

    This time they have been trying to get partisans onto local Election monitoring bodies, where they can (it is hoped) simply refuse to certify the result of the count. Last time aiui Courts refused to tolerate such activity, so it rolls into Trump's corruption of the Judicial system too, and also into the widespread efforts essentially to bully voters likely to support Democrats off the ballot (eg True the Vote and many other bodies).

    Likely? IMO probably not in the end.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    It took us a long time before we could receive Chanel 4. All the Brookside chat just went over my head.
    "In my family's Millstone Grit terraced home, this was the only kind of TV we had when I was a young Yorkshire tyke ..."
    https://www.pollocks-coventgarden.co.uk/products/shakespeares-toy-theatre-with-midsummer-nights-dream/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    Completely off topic, for anyone facing a challenge or two and looking for a bit of inspiration, I point you to Sheetal Devi:

    image

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2gpgppg57o

    Bloody marvellous!
  • Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone. Pleasant, and fairly promising Bank Holiday sunshine here!

    Surely the more likely prospect of 'trouble', or outside intervention is if there is some dispute over voting procedures (cf 'hanging chads') and the Supreme Court is asked to intervene.
    Which we (almost) know will side with Trump.

    Speaking of the Supreme Court, one reason why this election is especially important - leaving aside the fact that one candidate has openly said he wants to be a dictator - is the makeup of the Supreme Court.

    There are three justices over 70, and one aged 69. Thomas and Alito will likely be leaving, either by death or resignation,* in the next four years, Roberts may join them and Sotomayor has had several health problems.

    So there is a very real chance that the 47th President could be appointing up to four justices, two of them highly partisan Republicans and one a more moderate conservative. If the new appointees are Republicans that would further unbalance the court in their favour, while if they were Democrats it would remove the current supermajority the Republicans enjoy (as well as removing two of the more openly biased judges).

    This would raise the stakes, if it weren't for the fact that if Trump is re-elected the courts will probably rapidly be sidelined anyway.

    *Or, if the Democrats win the House, they may go for impeachment of Thomas at least although it's hard to see him being convicted merely on the grounds he's a criminal.
    I'm not at all sure the courts would be sidelined under a Trump presidency. At least not the ones which help expand the power of the office - and we know the SC is already on board with that, sufficiently to ignore what the constitution says.

    There's no 'if'; the stakes are indeed high.

    Impeachment of Thomas doesn't much matter if the Senate won't convict.
    Why if?

    The President could send a mob into Congress to tear up the Constitution, kill his own Vice President, jeopardise the lives of those in Congress and get 7 people killed along the way and the Senate won't vote to convict.

    It's cute to suggest there's even a chance of Thomas being convicted for merely being a criminal.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,847
    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    When I was young we only had 2 channels and black and white TVs only. When BBC2 came along and colour we nagged my Dad endlessly to buy one, which he resisted for years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    It took us a long time before we could receive Chanel 4. All the Brookside chat just went over my head.
    The thought of Brookside going over somebody's head is startling.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,674
    "Labour MP tells Kamala Harris not to ignore voters’ worries about immigration
    Mike Tapp tells the presidential nominee’s campaign team they must listen to what hard-working people want"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/25/labour-mp-kamala-harris-mike-tapp-immigration-worries/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    (Thinks better of musing about how many people lived in places where they could get, say, Granada and ATV when they were meaningfully different.)

    But, at risk of sounding like an Unherd columnist, you may be right. Eyeballs concentrated on fewer options meant more money spent on the programmes that were broadcast. And I'm pretty sure that a nation where most people watched the same evening news bulletins (which knew they had to try and be neutralish, and were under massive scrutiny to be so) was better-informed than one where we all choose our own news.

    Same for local radio. Having lots of different Radio Yourtowns was probably a better service than what we have now.

    No way of putting the genie back in the bottle, though.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Morning all :)

    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-superstar-sahra-wagenknecht-far-left-far-right/

    Fascinating piece on Wagenknecht and the BSW who seem to be the coming force in German politics.

    This is one of the reasons why the terms "left" and "right" are so devalued as to be meaningless in modern political discourse though obviously they are still used as perjoratives by some.

    Over here, I see the Reform voters and membership as much more aligned to Wagenknecht than the current Conservative Party. The Reform leadership (Farage, Tice) are basically Thatcherites but Anderson (to me) is a kind of Wagenknecht type figure - anti immigration, socially conservative, patriotic but wanting money to be spent in areas like his and similar WWC places (I'll throw out Great Yarmouth and Basildon as two other examples). Indeed, on that part of it, Anderson seems to be a traditional socialist interventionist (no small state for him?)

    I get annoyed when people call Reform "right wing" and align it with the Conservatives - it's not and they won't. I'd argue further the 25% of 2019 Conservative voters who voted Reform in July were more likely supporters of Boris Johnson's levelling up aganda. Indeed, the distance between Johnson and Wagenknecht isn't great either. This kind of social conservative nationalist anti-immigrant agenda sits across from the more internationalist globalist and liberal aspect of what could be described as the more traditional social democratic parties (Owenite social democracy, I'd also argue, was the antecedant of Reform and BSW in Germany).

    If that's what you think of as a fault line in modern politics, there you have it.

    What I find fascinating is almost no one is advocating small state traditional conservatism. The argument is more over where and how the State intervenes - spending money in WWC areas for example. Stodge's Fifth Law of Politics states politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. If a gap exists, someone will try to fill it.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    A tie is very unlikely and really doesn’t bear thinking about !

    As for the SC throwing out election results in favour of Trump, essentially the court has the same ideological split as in 2020. And they didn’t do that then .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    It is not completely impossible it could end up 269 EC votes each. It would require Harris to win all the Hillary 2016 states except Nevada and hold Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from the states Biden won in 2020. Trump holds all his 2020 states and adds Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.

    However even then Harris likely wins Nebraska 02 as Biden did where she is ahead and given Walz was born and raised in Nebraska to get her to 270. If it went to the House on 269 each then Trump likely wins as even if the Democrats take the House back the GOP likely hold a majority of state delegations
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194

    ydoethur said:

    And neither Trump nor Biden has an electoral college majority.

    Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.

    On your substantive point, the RFK thing only becomes an issue in one of two scenarios: (1) He wins a state and thereby causes neither side to hit the 270 mark or (2) faithless electors cause both parties to fall short, and he has more faithless electors than any other candidate.

    1) Will not happen.

    2) Could happen whether he's a candidate or not. Colin Powell in theory came third in 2016 not having even been a primary candidate.

    So if he's leaving his name on the ballot for that reason he's an even bigger fool than I thought he was.

    Otherwise, an interesting read, thanks for the effort. Permutations as to how a tie could arise would be useful if anyone has any?

    270toWin has a (the?) tie scenario:

    https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201311140142122221130522262251301421014224231102214252&party=T&year=2024

    Of the swing states GOP = PA + MI ; Dem = GA + AZ + WI + NV.

    Pretty unlikely, I'd say.
    There are potentially dozens of combinations, depending on which states/districts you choose as being in play:

    https://www.270towin.com/electoral-college-tie-combinations/

    I listed a handful of them earlier

    Of course it's pretty unlikely, but by no means impossible.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!

    Edit - also, it looks as though Harris is on course to take Maine's second district anyway, so the timing point is moot.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4841482-harris-leads-trump-maine-district/
    One poll of 400 people shows a 5 point lead. In 2020 Trump won by 7.4%

    Anyway IF ME-2 is in play for Harris, then that allows a whole load more options for a tie
    eg Trump flips PA, WI and NV and Harris wins ME-2
    400 out of 688,000 isn't that small a sample size.

    Moreover, the Democrats won it in the 2022 midterms.
    You wouldn't have a UK constituency poll on such a small number.

    And its irrelevant that the Dems won the House seat in 2022 as they also won it in 2020 by a larger margin.

    Its rep Jared Golden is very centrist, he's closer to the traditional GOP than many current GOP politicians.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Golden
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    edited August 26
    On topic, a tie is quite possible All it requires is Trump to win the sunbelt (AZ, NV and GA), while Biden holds on in the rustbelt... And Nebraska's single elector from the 2nd flips.

    Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.

    Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.

    Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.

    So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,056

    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.

    Good luck with not bringing the American government in to bat for its tech firms, which is most of them, the rest being Russian or Chinese.

    And that assumes Macron can bring what looks like a Eurosceptic parliament along for pan-EU action, but others might have been following French politics more closely.
    Such regulations might as much be in the interests of the US government as it is for the French. See the Clipper Chip in the 1990s.
    Any financial penalties or attempts to "steal" what Washington sees as its own tax revenue will go down badly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, a tie is quite possible All it requires is Trump to win the sunbelt (AZ, NV and GA), while Biden holds on in the rustbelt... And Nebraska's single elector from the 2nd flips.

    Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.

    Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.

    Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.

    So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.

    As an aside, there is a new map in Nebraska (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/nebraska/), and it probably helps the Republicans slightly.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do a little better than expected in AZ, NV and GA, and a little worse in PA and MI
    Harris! Aargh!

    Edit - also, it looks as though Harris is on course to take Maine's second district anyway, so the timing point is moot.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4841482-harris-leads-trump-maine-district/
    One poll of 400 people shows a 5 point lead. In 2020 Trump won by 7.4%

    Anyway IF ME-2 is in play for Harris, then that allows a whole load more options for a tie
    eg Trump flips PA, WI and NV and Harris wins ME-2
    400 out of 688,000 isn't that small a sample size.

    Moreover, the Democrats won it in the 2022 midterms.
    Maybe ME-2 is in play for Harris, though she's not favorite there until there are a couple more polls showing her in the lead. But even if it is, it just opens up more potential combinations for a tie.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313

    It is a miracle we won World War I with the Liberals in charge.

    They had the self restraint of randy rabbits and thus became national security risks.

    H.H. Asquith joins David Lloyd George as a degenerate who put his libido above all else, thank goodness they were eclipsed.

    Herbert Asquith ‘had passionate weekly trysts with aristocrat in back of car’

    First World War PM took young socialite on long drives in ‘bedroom on wheels’, creating security risk by giving away secrets, claims author


    Herbert Asquith had passionate weekly trysts with his mistress socialite in the back of his official prime ministerial car, author Robert Harris has claimed.

    The risky affair of the Liberal prime minister (1908-16) with aristocrat Venetia Stanley – who was 35 years his junior – contributed to a series of military and political crises at the onset of the First World War.

    Piecing together information from Asquith’s letters to Stanley while doing research for his new book, Precipice, Harris found the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress.

    He also discovered that Asquith shared state secrets during their trysts, with copies of classified documents later handed over to police after being discarded from his car.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/25/herbert-asquith-affair-prime-minister-first-world-war/

    What do you expect from Liberals?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,056
    nico679 said:

    A tie is very unlikely and really doesn’t bear thinking about !

    As for the SC throwing out election results in favour of Trump, essentially the court has the same ideological split as in 2020. And they didn’t do that then .

    The Supreme Court did intervene for George W Bush against Al Gore in the hanging chads election.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    ydoethur said:

    And neither Trump nor Biden has an electoral college majority.

    Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.

    Trump looks like he's giving up. He's not campaigning with anything like the frequency or intensity he did in 2016 or 2020. JDV has turned out to be a terrible VP pick and he'd thought he'd be fighting JRB so maybe he knows the jig is up.

    Perhaps nearly getting trepanned by a 5.56x45 has done his head in. I still can't believe that useless tosser missed the shot.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,183
    Great thread, thanks @rottenborough
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    (Thinks better of musing about how many people lived in places where they could get, say, Granada and ATV when they were meaningfully different.)

    But, at risk of sounding like an Unherd columnist, you may be right. Eyeballs concentrated on fewer options meant more money spent on the programmes that were broadcast. And I'm pretty sure that a nation where most people watched the same evening news bulletins (which knew they had to try and be neutralish, and were under massive scrutiny to be so) was better-informed than one where we all choose our own news.

    Same for local radio. Having lots of different Radio Yourtowns was probably a better service than what we have now.

    No way of putting the genie back in the bottle, though.
    Indeed. That was very evident in the public health warnings over covid - in contrast to the AIDS public health campaign, which was far more unified. Same with the print media. Now it's far too fractured and refracted through the little bits of media one has today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    But that’s not what your original post said.

    You seem to hanker for a past that never existed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, a tie is quite possible All it requires is Trump to win the sunbelt (AZ, NV and GA), while Biden holds on in the rustbelt... And Nebraska's single elector from the 2nd flips.

    Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.

    Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.

    Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.

    So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.

    Biden?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, a tie is quite possible All it requires is Trump to win the sunbelt (AZ, NV and GA), while Biden holds on in the rustbelt... And Nebraska's single elector from the 2nd flips.

    Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.

    Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.

    Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.

    So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.

    Latest poll here:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/

    has Harris 8 ahead.

    Though Nebraska Republicans might still give it to Trump anyway:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    And neither Trump nor Biden has an electoral college majority.

    Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.

    Trump looks like he's giving up. He's not campaigning with anything like the frequency or intensity he did in 2016 or 2020. JDV has turned out to be a terrible VP pick and he'd thought he'd be fighting JRB so maybe he knows the jig is up.

    Perhaps nearly getting trepanned by a 5.56x45 has done his head in. I still can't believe that useless tosser missed the shot.
    Should have taken your advice and gone for a golf course where the flags would have given him wind speed and direction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    edited August 26
    kamski said:

    Thanks Rotten Borough.

    A tie is as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.

    There's a few ways it could happen eg:
    All same as 2020 except:

    Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District
    Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan
    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and NE-2
    Trump wins PA, WI, NH, NE-2 AND Georgia, but Biden wins N Carolina
    Trump wins PA, AZ and NH
    Trump wins PA, GA, AZ and NH but Harris NOT Biden wins N Carolina

    etc etc etc A lot of them involve Trump winning Pennsylvania except for the first one on the list above, which might depend on Republicans finding a way to give NE-2 to Trump

    Here's an article from 10th August suggesting they might:
    https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-back-into-presidential-spotlight-after-crazy-month/

    'Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

    Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

    “It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”'


    Presumably timed to make it difficult for Maine to retaliate by also going winner-takes-all

    Which I think makes the top option on the list the most likely, and actually not super-unlikely at all. The 2nd on the list is probably the next most likely, just needs Harris to do
    a little better than expected in
    AZ, NV and GA, and a little
    worse in PA and MI
    Hard to see Trump winning
    Michigan or New Hampshire
    on current polls as Harris
    leads more there than she
    does nationally. So to get to a
    tie Trump would likely need to win Nebraska 02
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    But that’s not what your original post said.

    You seem to hanker for a past that never existed.
    When I was a lad we didn't have a TV. My father thought it would distract my sister and I from our studies.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    (Thinks better of musing about how many people lived in places where they could get, say, Granada and ATV when they were meaningfully different.)

    But, at risk of sounding like an Unherd columnist, you may be right. Eyeballs concentrated on fewer options meant more money spent on the programmes that were broadcast. And I'm pretty sure that a nation where most people watched the same evening news bulletins (which knew they had to try and be neutralish, and were under massive scrutiny to be so) was better-informed than one where we all choose our own news.

    Same for local radio. Having lots of different Radio Yourtowns was probably a better service than what we have now.

    No way of putting the genie back in the bottle, though.
    Indeed. That was very evident in the public health warnings over covid - in contrast to the AIDS public health campaign, which was far more unified. Same with the print media. Now it's far too fractured and refracted through the little bits of media one has today.
    From the perspective of now, the AIDS campaign was a blooming miracle. There must have been some "it only affects gays, perverts and Liberal MPs" pushback, but I don't recall it getting anywhere.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    But that’s not what your original post said.

    You seem to hanker for a past that never existed.
    When I was a lad we didn't have a TV. My father thought it would distract my sister and I from our studies.
    Studies? You were lucky. My father thought it would distract me from standing on the tabletop to be taught to be quiet.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vast majority of people only had 4 tv channels between 82 and 97.

    But that’s not what your original post said.

    You seem to hanker for a past that never existed.
    When I was a lad we didn't have a TV. My father thought it would distract my sister and I from our studies.
    Studies? You were lucky. My father thought it would distract me from standing on the tabletop to be taught to be quiet.
    Tabletop? We sat round with our plates on our knees.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,919

    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.

    A courageous decision there, say goodbye to iMessage and WhatsApp for starters.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,654
    edited August 26

    ydoethur said:

    And neither Trump nor Biden has an electoral college majority.

    Odds of that happening are actually quite short, given Trump is currently struggling and Biden isn't a candidate.

    On your substantive point, the RFK thing only becomes an issue in one of two scenarios: (1) He wins a state and thereby causes neither side to hit the 270 mark or (2) faithless electors cause both parties to fall short, and he has more faithless electors than any other candidate.

    1) Will not happen.

    2) Could happen whether he's a candidate or not. Colin Powell in theory came third in 2016 not having even been a primary candidate.

    So if he's leaving his name on the ballot for that reason he's an even bigger fool than I thought he was.

    Otherwise, an interesting read, thanks for the effort. Permutations as to how a tie could arise would be useful if anyone has any?

    270toWin has a (the?) tie scenario:

    https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201311140142122221130522262251301421014224231102214252&party=T&year=2024

    Of the swing states GOP = PA + MI ; Dem = GA + AZ + WI + NV.

    Pretty unlikely, I'd say.
    The recent 538 simulation of 1000 cases has 4 tied outcomes. i.e. 0.4% chance. 1 in 250. Pretty unlikely.



    PS This implies that Harris should be at 1.72 on Betfair, not 2.00
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,781
    glw said:

    Been picking up something interesting stuff about the French arrest of Telegram guy.

    Apparently the French government thinks it has found a solution to the E2E encryption problem.

    For those who are already asleep, this is the issue that, increasingly, social media platforms are adding encryption behind the scenes. In a way that means *they* can’t read your messages either. This is spreading from 1-1 chats to chat rooms.

    The problem is that E2E is required for financial transactions online. And just about any kind of online security.

    Apparently the French are going to push for a European law that if E2E is used, without a back door for spooks/law enforcement, then it will only be allowed to be used for financial transactions or verification - severe limits on amounts of data.

    If the state can’t get into a chat, the company in question will be held liable - if they build the platform so that they (the company m) doesn’t have access, that will simply make them guilty of a crime.

    A courageous decision there, say goodbye to iMessage and WhatsApp for starters.
    Cue someone setting up a messaging service which transfers 0.01c to the recipient of each message... and so all messages are financial transactions.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, a tie is quite possible All it requires is Trump to win the sunbelt (AZ, NV and GA), while Biden holds on in the rustbelt... And Nebraska's single elector from the 2nd flips.

    Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.

    Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.

    Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.

    So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.

    FFS it's Harris not Biden! What is it with people this morning? It's not that long ago we were all criticizing Biden for muddling up names.
    Sorry 😂
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, a tie is quite possible All it requires is Trump to win the sunbelt (AZ, NV and GA), while Biden holds on in the rustbelt... And Nebraska's single elector from the 2nd flips.

    Right now, the Dems are leading in the polls in MI and WI; let's give them those. And were it not for AZ's abortion referendum, I think that and AZ would be an easy pickup. NV and GA will be close, but Trump should probably be favorite. And PA is probably the other way around.

    Which means it all comes down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Here Biden led Trump by 6.5% in 2020 (while the District returned a Republican congressman). Said race was won again by the Republican incumbent in 2022, albeit narrowly.

    Could the Republicans flip it? Sure they can. Will they? Well, there's been no polling, so who knows. I'd make it in a one-in-four shot.

    So you know what: I'd say that an electoral tie is far from impossible. I'd probably want fairly decent odds on it, but it's far from an outrageous possibility.

    Biden?
    You don't honestly think the Dems are going to stick with Harris? It's also just a clever bait and switch, and Biden will become nominee again in a month, just you wait and see...
This discussion has been closed.