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Does Kemi Badenoch hate Northerners? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,594
edited August 2024 in General
Does Kemi Badenoch hate Northerners? – politicalbetting.com

EXCLUSIVEKemi Badenoch missed the only Conservative Party leadership hustings in the north of England today because she is on holidayhttps://t.co/lwmgB2Z7FB

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,471
    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,772
    FPT x2:
    Good morning, everyone.

    Read a headline, not the article as it's being the ironically named F1 login, on the official website indicating that one chap at least believes the second RB seat is a contest between Ricciardo and Lawson for next year. After a slightly slow start Ricciardo's been doing better lately. On the other hand, Lawson was great as the second substitute previously, and I'm not surprised the team want to keep hold of him.

    F1: just got the small sum available on Betfair to back Piastri as winner without Verstappen at 8.

    He's 32 points off Norris. In the last four races he's scored 31 points more. Not certain, of course, perhaps not even likely, but certainly credible. I'd take a little at 5+ if you find it elsewhere.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,979
    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    It only takes 18 MPs to now trigger a VONC.

    Pretty low bar.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,295
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    It only takes 18 MPs to now trigger a VONC.

    Pretty low bar.
    But Conservative MPs are very thin on the ground. It would take a while to find 18 of them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,385
    @Georgia_Edkins

    EXCLUSIVE: Angus Robertson was once a ‘luxury’, but is now a 'liability' claims SNP MSP as infighting grows. New letter sent to John Swinney from stalwart Christine Grahame calls on FM to take action against his minister

    https://x.com/Georgia_Edkins/status/1824916738107941031
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,907
    Badenoch will take the Tories to new lows. She has no absolutely no appeal.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,015
    "If she were to win I think she will turn out to be the female IDS" - There are six, any of them will surely turn out to be the IDS de nos jours, running for the leadership.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,907
    Monksfield said:

    Badenoch will take the Tories to new lows. She has no absolutely no appeal.

    In fact rather weird, a UK version of JD Vance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,979
    Monksfield said:

    Monksfield said:

    Badenoch will take the Tories to new lows. She has no absolutely no appeal.

    In fact rather weird, a UK version of JD Vance.
    I refer you the lyrics of Radiohead's greatest ever song.

    When you were here before
    Couldn't look you in the eye
    You're just like an angel
    Your skin makes me cry
    You float like a feather
    In a beautiful world
    I wish I was special
    You're so fucking special

    But I'm a creep
    I'm a weirdo
    What the hell am I doing here?
    I don't belong here
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,192
    You encounter some right tossers in Yarm. Full of themselves.

    So why the Tories chose Yarm for a hustings, I have no idea.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,471
    Scott_xP said:

    @Georgia_Edkins

    EXCLUSIVE: Angus Robertson was once a ‘luxury’, but is now a 'liability' claims SNP MSP as infighting grows. New letter sent to John Swinney from stalwart Christine Grahame calls on FM to take action against his minister

    https://x.com/Georgia_Edkins/status/1824916738107941031

    I think that just proves a lot of the left are utterly unhinged on the subject of the Gaza war. They don't understand it, don't really want to engage with it insofar as we have any influence at all and only care about it as a stick to beat their opponents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,471
    SandyRentool said:

    You encounter some right tossers in Yarm. Full of themselves.

    So why the Tories chose Yarm for a hustings, I have no idea.

    Maybe they misunderstood and were looking for right wing tossers?

    There's a bit of a shortage at the moment, after all.
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 394
    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,645
    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    Such a shame... but karma and all that.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,645
    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    Such a shame... but karma and all that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,997
    This does seem a fairly strange move if she was serious about winning. It makes more sense if she thinks she is not going to win but wants to carve out a position as a player and possibly even a Sir Keith Joseph of our days. She, at least, seems to have a fairly high opinion of her intellectual prowess.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,315
    Monksfield said:

    Badenoch will take the Tories to new lows. She has no absolutely no appeal.

    She's the favourite.

    I don't like her politics, and think her time in office indistinguished, but she is a good speaker most of the time. She would be good at some bits of the LOTO Jon such as PMQs, but likely to go missing when it goes against her.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,772
    Just checking through a top teams mid-season review I'll post on Medium probably later today (will link, it'll be freely readable), and had to double check Perez hasn't been higher than 7th since Miami. The collapse in his form is rather sad to see. Though worth noting the car's also losing the development race badly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,603
    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,265
    Why shouldn't Kemi hate northerners?

    An awful lot of her politics seems fairly hatey. From her origin story of meeting ghastly lefty students at Uni to her attitude to woke as a minister.

    It's much easier to say what KB is against than what she is for.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I listen to LBC far too much, and there's an awful lot of talk that "students can't afford the debt from student fees, I know let's return funding to the public sector and limit places to the elite 7%".

    Keep the riff-raff out of higher education for their own good, could be a policy on the next Tory manifesto
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 650
    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    Badenoch doesn't have much going for her. A step up from Jenrick however.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,471
    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Whilst Badenoch is undoubtedly weird, she is hardly alone. Reflecting on U.K. politics, it’s hard to pinpoint politicians that aren’t weird. It’s not just the Tories. Sunak and Truss are weird. Johnson is weird. Starmer is weird. Davey is weird. Farage is weird. Blair started out normal ish and ended up really weird.

    To rise to the top of our system, you have to be, well how can I put it, weird.

    Of the current crop of Tory hopefuls arguably Cleverly is the least weird, but he’s still weird.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,491
    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    It shouldn’t be only male leaders that never get to be PM, surely?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    DavidL said:

    This does seem a fairly strange move if she was serious about winning. It makes more sense if she thinks she is not going to win but wants to carve out a position as a player and possibly even a Sir Keith Joseph of our days. She, at least, seems to have a fairly high opinion of her intellectual prowess.

    The telling word in your comment is "serious". That's not Badenoch.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,772
    Mr. Jonathan, the system may well be selecting for weird.

    The scrutiny of politicians over policy and desire for scandal and scalp-hunting means a very thick hide is required. Charisma is more important than competence, broadly speaking. The job security is poor, the pay is not bad compared to all other jobs but compared to other work highly skilled people might be doing it's not fantastic. There's also a risk of safety, with two murders in recent years.

    Who'd be a politician?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,491
    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also a even chance that whoever is chosen even becomes the next Prime Minister.
    FTFY
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I was earning £15,000 a year five years after I left university. My wife was earning a little bit more as a teacher. We had just bought our first place: a two bedroomed garden flat in London N19. It cost £60,000. That was in 1992. I reckon the equivalent combined salaries today for the jobs we did would be around £60,000. The flat would be over £500,000. My generation is the luckiest there has ever been.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    It only takes 18 MPs to now trigger a VONC.

    Pretty low bar.
    Though 18 MPs is a higher percentage of the non-payroll vote than ever before.

    It could be considerably harder to find 18 MPs willing to put their names down.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jonathan, the system may well be selecting for weird.

    The scrutiny of politicians over policy and desire for scandal and scalp-hunting means a very thick hide is required. Charisma is more important than competence, broadly speaking. The job security is poor, the pay is not bad compared to all other jobs but compared to other work highly skilled people might be doing it's not fantastic. There's also a risk of safety, with two murders in recent years.

    Who'd be a politician?

    I dunno. One of the most effective political strategies has been to camouflage your weirdness with poshness. Cameron in particular used the approach effectively.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,491
    Anyhow it’s a fine morning out in the Atlantic, blue skies with light cloud, light wind, and ripples rather than waves as we serenely plough westwards. But I understand there’s the remnants of a hurricane floating about somewhere off the US east coast?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,265
    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    It's really really hard to see the government of 2024-9 failing to the degree that the one of 2019-24 did. Doing some things that annoy pensioners isn't going to do it. Though that might just be wishful thinking on my part, what with having an interest in living somewhere well-run.

    And if it does fail, there's no reason to think that the Conservatives will be the beneficiaries. You also need the Lib Dems to fall apart in the way that the SNP did.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    I don't think supporters of the current iteration of the Conservative Party (including leadership challengers like Badenoch and Jenrick) have twigged that should Labour fail, and they (not Jenrick as far as I am aware) are on here every day wishing Starmer (and Reeves) to crash and burn, that the Conservative Party may not be the net beneficiaries of Labour failure.

    They cheered Nigel Farage after the Farage Riots. They whine about the two tier justice system when little old ladies (is 53 old?) are jailed for inciting mosques full to the brim with worshippers to be burned to the ground. They attack Labour failure to "stop the boats". All good stuff, but Labour's tumble in the polls does not reflect a Conservative resurgence. The net beneficiary is National Treasure Nigel Farage and his Reform Party.

    The Conservatives will never out Farage, Farage.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,265
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    It only takes 18 MPs to now trigger a VONC.

    Pretty low bar.
    Though 18 MPs is a higher percentage of the non-payroll vote than ever before.

    It could be considerably harder to find 18 MPs willing to put their names down.
    Anyone know how the payroll rules work in opposition? Are there any rules at all? Government has 100 or so ministers. If the Conservatives try to shadow those on a 1:1 basis, that will need all but the most callow or silly to have jobs.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,940
    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    If you really believe there is an evens chance there will be several bookmakers willing to give you free money.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,295
    Stuartinromford said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    It only takes 18 MPs to now trigger a VONC.

    Pretty low bar.
    Though 18 MPs is a higher percentage of the non-payroll vote than ever before.

    It could be considerably harder to find 18 MPs willing to put their names down.
    Anyone know how the payroll rules work in opposition? Are there any rules at all? Government has 100 or so ministers. If the Conservatives try to shadow those on a 1:1 basis, that will need all but the most callow or silly to have jobs.
    It’s up to the party to shadow or not shadow however they want. They don’t have to match every minister. They can carve out their own responsibilities that overlap different ministers.

    And there’s no payroll. LOTO, chief whip and deputy chief whip are the only ones that get paid.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,182
    Hmm, the comments so far sound like Braer Rabbit's pleas not to be thrown into the briar patch. They might just convince me that Badenoch is the right choice for the Tories
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,315
    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    It's really really hard to see the government of 2024-9 failing to the degree that the one of 2019-24 did. Doing some things that annoy pensioners isn't going to do it. Though that might just be wishful thinking on my part, what with having an interest in living somewhere well-run.

    And if it does fail, there's no reason to think that the Conservatives will be the beneficiaries. You also need the Lib Dems to fall apart in the way that the SNP did.
    There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for Starmers government. We are in a very different place to 1997. In part this is a legacy of a low energy GE campaign that failed to enthuse or engage with Labour voters, but also in part because of the timing. Labour's honeymoon fell in the summer fallow season of politics. Things are likely to get going again in the autumn with the conferences and budget.

    However there's even less enthusiasm for the Tories. They seem to have a pretty poor choice between Reform-lite and the blandest thing on the menu for their next leader.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,265
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    Maybe that counts as pleasure not work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,979
    edited August 2024
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.

    She's confirmed the story is true by playing the victim.

    Articles portraying politicians negatively for having a family life have done much to toxify the environment for MPs. We can do better than this.

    It was a pleasure to be one of the first candidates to the North East earlier this month. With over 100 invitations to speak, I’ll be back again touring the country after I’ve had time with my family who I promised a holiday -I’m keeping that promise.

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1824871867624108291
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,471
    edited August 2024
    Of course, it's fair to point out that in electing Starmer in 2020 Labour took my first option, and despite me giving him no chance of doing so he pulled off not just a return to power but a huge majority.

    But - that was after four election defeats and two 'happy space' leaders.

    And the Tories do not have the luxury of a net loss of 57 seats to play with from here.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    edited August 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    What exactly is the rationale for Conservative challengers to promote the idea that a two-tier Britain exists and it is especially unfair to white supremacist football hooligans?

    The notion (which some of the leadership challengers are promoting) of a "two -tier" Britain is particularly troublesome for the Conservatives bearing in mind they were overseeing "two- tier" Britain until six weeks ago. Although I suspect Kemi Badenoch's idea of a "two tier" Britain is somewhat different to my own, and she doesn't believe it existed before July 5th.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,979
    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    What exactly is the rationale for Conservative challengers to promote the idea that a two-tier Britain exists and it is especially unfair to white supremacist football hooligans?

    The notion (which some of the leadership challengers are promoting) of a "two -tier" Britain is particularly troublesome for the Conservatives bearing in mind they were overseeing "two- tier" Britain until six weeks ago. Although I suspect Kemi Badenoch's idea of a "two tier" Britain is somewhat different to my own, and she doesn't believe it existed before July 5th.

    If you are a Tory leadership contender you have to pitch to your electorate. Badenoch and Jenrick clearly believe that electorate is far more sympathetic to the rioters than the country is.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,265
    ydoethur said:

    Of course, it's fair to point out that in electing Starmer in 2020 Labour took my second option, and despite me giving him no chance of doing so he pulled off not just a return to power but a huge majority.

    But - that was after four election defeats and two 'happy space' leaders.

    And the Tories do not have the luxury of a net loss of 57 seats to play with from here.

    That's the mind bending aspect of the Conservative choice. The best way to maximise the chance of winning next time is to acknowledge how slim that chance currently is.

    (Having a tame genie to detonate your many rivals as well probably helps.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,979
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.

    She's confirmed the story is true by playing the victim.

    Articles portraying politicians negatively for having a family life have done much to toxify the environment for MPs. We can do better than this.

    It was a pleasure to be one of the first candidates to the North East earlier this month. With over 100 invitations to speak, I’ll be back again touring the country after I’ve had time with my family who I promised a holiday -I’m keeping that promise.

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1824871867624108291
    She's right on this. Like Starmer she deserves some family time.

    Politicians need to ground themselves outside their political bubble every now and again. It is needed outside politics too.
    If only the Tories hadn't soiled themselves over Starmer's pre-election comments about trying to take Friday nights off for family stuff.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,969
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Hmm, the comments so far sound like Braer Rabbit's pleas not to be thrown into the briar patch. They might just convince me that Badenoch is the right choice for the Tories

    She would be a better choice than Jenrick, Patel, Braverman or Farage.

    She would be more popular with the rank and file than Stride, Tugendhat or Cleverly.

    That does not make her 'the right choice.'

    I think the one thing I would urge the Tories to understand is that in this situation they don't have a *good* choice per se.

    They have the choice that may ultimately lead them back to power, by having a serious look at what went wrong and taking energetic action to correct it.

    Or, they have a choice that might be described as *happy space* - it convinces them everything was fine but for Covid and Truss and sets them off on a path that may well lead to total irrelevance and extinction.

    Most candidates, including Tugendhat, seem to offer the second. Cleverly and Stride are offering elements - only elements - of the first, but are clearly not being listened to.
    On that note, Kemi used to be associated with Gove, and hasn't he recently produced a post-mortem report on the last government?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,471
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.

    She's confirmed the story is true by playing the victim.

    Articles portraying politicians negatively for having a family life have done much to toxify the environment for MPs. We can do better than this.

    It was a pleasure to be one of the first candidates to the North East earlier this month. With over 100 invitations to speak, I’ll be back again touring the country after I’ve had time with my family who I promised a holiday -I’m keeping that promise.

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1824871867624108291
    She's right on this. Like Starmer she deserves some family time.

    Politicians need to ground themselves outside their political bubble every now and again. It is needed outside politics too.
    If only the Tories hadn't soiled themselves over Starmer's pre-election comments about trying to take Friday nights off for family stuff.
    Tbf, that’s the least of the ways in which they soiled themselves.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    It's really really hard to see the government of 2024-9 failing to the degree that the one of 2019-24 did. Doing some things that annoy pensioners isn't going to do it. Though that might just be wishful thinking on my part, what with having an interest in living somewhere well-run.

    And if it does fail, there's no reason to think that the Conservatives will be the beneficiaries. You also need the Lib Dems to fall apart in the way that the SNP did.
    There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for Starmers government. We are in a very different place to 1997. In part this is a legacy of a low energy GE campaign that failed to enthuse or engage with Labour voters, but also in part because of the timing. Labour's honeymoon fell in the summer fallow season of politics. Things are likely to get going again in the autumn with the conferences and budget.

    However there's even less enthusiasm for the Tories. They seem to have a pretty poor choice between Reform-lite and the blandest thing on the menu for their next leader.

    There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for politics generally because for a long time politics has not delivered anything very much in the way of positive results. That is not going to change after five weeks or five months. But we are a long way from the next general election. We have got so used to drama and regime change since 2015 that we seem to have forgotten this.

  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited August 2024
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.

    I dunno, the tele/specie are usually pretty involved in Tory leadership contests - and this one in particular.

    If I were punting on the race, I’d be analysing all their output with a microscope, with GB news on in the background.

    I don’t have an interest, or the interest, this time round, though.

    Terrible state of affairs for the once great Conservative party, that they can’t even get *me* interested.

    Rumour or fact, I don’t even care enough to read it and form a view. It’s *that* bad for the Tory party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    Not only do I not think Badenoch will win, I don't think she even has enough support from Tory MPs to be certain of making the final 2 to go to party members. Currently Jenrick leads clearly with 10 declared MP endorsements and while Badenoch is second with 6 MPs behind her she is only just ahead of Stride and Tugendhat with 5 each. Cleverly and Patel are not too far behind either with 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/16/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    She has picked up the support of former Truss loyalist Sir Simon Clarke, not that that helps her much given he lost his seat last month and is now just an ordinary member
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,261
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.

    I dunno, the tele/specie are usually pretty involved in Tory leadership contests - and this one in particular.

    If I were punting on the race, I’d be analysing all their output with a microscope, with GB news on in the background.

    I don’t have an interest, or the interest, this time round, though.

    Terrible state of affairs for the once great Conservative party, that they can’t even get *me* interested.
    A great party, rotted from within, was defeated from without.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,730
    edited August 2024
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    It's really really hard to see the government of 2024-9 failing to the degree that the one of 2019-24 did. Doing some things that annoy pensioners isn't going to do it. Though that might just be wishful thinking on my part, what with having an interest in living somewhere well-run.

    And if it does fail, there's no reason to think that the Conservatives will be the beneficiaries. You also need the Lib Dems to fall apart in the way that the SNP did.
    There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for Starmers government. We are in a very different place to 1997. In part this is a legacy of a low energy GE campaign that failed to enthuse or engage with Labour voters, but also in part because of the timing. Labour's honeymoon fell in the summer fallow season of politics. Things are likely to get going again in the autumn with the conferences and budget.

    However there's even less enthusiasm for the Tories. They seem to have a pretty poor choice between Reform-lite and the blandest thing on the menu for their next leader.
    I agree with all that. The Tories are in a bad place, but I think too much emphasis is put on how bad. People have short memories (even more so nowadays) and the electorate is more volatile. We also have a Labour Party who have to make difficult decisions and who have failed to lay the groundwork to give them the political cover to do so.

    The big question for me is not whether Labour will become unpopular quite quickly (for I believe they will) but who the beneficiary of that will be. The Tories would be best placed traditionally as the main opposition, but they have the complicating factor of Reform. That makes things harder for them, and it’s why I take the view they need to deal with that first rather than anything else.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,677
    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow it’s a fine morning out in the Atlantic, blue skies with light cloud, light wind, and ripples rather than waves as we serenely plough westwards. But I understand there’s the remnants of a hurricane floating about somewhere off the US east coast?

    Yep, and coming this way, so we should have some wet and windy weather later in the week/weekend. Early to be too detailed though I expect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    edited August 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Almost all the JSO offenders given jail sentences had already been previously let off with suspended sentences but broken them. The rioters however were nearly all sent to jail straight away without passing go even after pleading guilty and if they showed some remorse given the damage they caused. Fair enough on both counts one would think
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's the Telegraph so the official status is 'rumour'.

    She's confirmed the story is true by playing the victim.

    Articles portraying politicians negatively for having a family life have done much to toxify the environment for MPs. We can do better than this.

    It was a pleasure to be one of the first candidates to the North East earlier this month. With over 100 invitations to speak, I’ll be back again touring the country after I’ve had time with my family who I promised a holiday -I’m keeping that promise.

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1824871867624108291
    Awful message being sent there by Kemi.

    It should be "whom I promised a holiday".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,677
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Climbing oneself to the top of the Dartford Crossing Bridge to bring the M25 to a standstill should justify an appropriate sentence. However, we have posters on here who seem to believe climbing on the bridge over the Thames at Dartford warrants a longer sentence than attempting to burn down a Holiday Inn Express full of guests. Madness!
    Because they Disrespected Motorists? Difficult to see any other rationale for such a philosophy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,969
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    It's really really hard to see the government of 2024-9 failing to the degree that the one of 2019-24 did. Doing some things that annoy pensioners isn't going to do it. Though that might just be wishful thinking on my part, what with having an interest in living somewhere well-run.

    And if it does fail, there's no reason to think that the Conservatives will be the beneficiaries. You also need the Lib Dems to fall apart in the way that the SNP did.
    There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm for Starmers government. We are in a very different place to 1997. In part this is a legacy of a low energy GE campaign that failed to enthuse or engage with Labour voters, but also in part because of the timing. Labour's honeymoon fell in the summer fallow season of politics. Things are likely to get going again in the autumn with the conferences and budget.

    However there's even less enthusiasm for the Tories. They seem to have a pretty poor choice between Reform-lite and the blandest thing on the menu for their next leader.
    Reform-lite takes the Conservatives down the Boris and Starmer tracks, and they both scored landslide wins.

    Boris and Starmer both stood explicitly against their own parties' records. Reform's policy analysis is that the last Conservative governments made a pig's ear of Brexit and immigration. There are less plausible routes back to power.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,295
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Almost all the JSO offenders given jail sentences had already been previously let off with suspended sentences but broken them. The rioters however were nearly all sent to jail straight away without passing go even after pleading guilty and if they showed some remorse given the damage they caused. Fair enough on both counts one would think
    The JSO neither carried out nor threatened violence to people is the big difference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    Mexicanpete said:

    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    I don't think supporters of the current iteration of the Conservative Party (including leadership challengers like Badenoch and Jenrick) have twigged that should Labour fail, and they (not Jenrick as far as I am aware) are on here every day wishing Starmer (and Reeves) to crash and burn, that the Conservative Party may not be the net beneficiaries of Labour failure.

    They cheered Nigel Farage after the Farage Riots. They whine about the two tier justice system when little old ladies (is 53 old?) are jailed for inciting mosques full to the brim with worshippers to be burned to the ground. They attack Labour failure to "stop the boats". All good stuff, but Labour's tumble in the polls does not reflect a Conservative resurgence. The net beneficiary is National Treasure Nigel Farage and his Reform Party.

    The Conservatives will never out Farage, Farage.
    Reform gaining votes from Labour also benefits the Tories in Labour marginals where the Tories are second
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,677
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Almost all the JSO offenders given jail sentences had already been previously let off with suspended sentences but broken them. The rioters however were nearly all sent to jail straight away without passing go even after pleading guilty and if they showed some remorse given the damage they caused. Fair enough on both counts one would think
    False correlation/sample, though, surely. There hasn't been time for processing the ones who didn't plead guilty, and who wouldn't therefore show remorse at least to begin with. The picture may look different then. Edit: One way or another.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    What exactly is the rationale for Conservative challengers to promote the idea that a two-tier Britain exists and it is especially unfair to white supremacist football hooligans?

    The notion (which some of the leadership challengers are promoting) of a "two -tier" Britain is particularly troublesome for the Conservatives bearing in mind they were overseeing "two- tier" Britain until six weeks ago. Although I suspect Kemi Badenoch's idea of a "two tier" Britain is somewhat different to my own, and she doesn't believe it existed before July 5th.

    It's simple. No excuse for the violence which came from a tiny minority of thugs. But a need to acknowledge that around 40/50% of people from all parties want immigration controlled and are not racist for thinking that. At the very least people deserve a clear explanation as to the difficulties associated with control of immigration.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,476
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Climbing oneself to the top of the Dartford Crossing Bridge to bring the M25 to a standstill should justify an appropriate sentence. However, we have posters on here who seem to believe climbing on the bridge over the Thames at Dartford warrants a longer sentence than attempting to burn down a Holiday Inn Express full of guests. Madness!
    Well in actual damage inflicted those who "climbed on the bridge" caused far more damage, millions of pounds of damage, and had a series of similar offences. Dismissing it as "climbing on a bridge" is like dismissing attempting to burn down a Holiday Inn full of guests as "playing with matches".

    Both are incredibly serious offences though and both should be taken seriously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    FF43 said:

    Badenoch doesn't have much going for her. A step up from Jenrick however.

    Jenrick is a better speaker than Badenoch and brighter in my view
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,969
    HYUFD said:

    Not only do I not think Badenoch will win, I don't think she even has enough support from Tory MPs to be certain of making the final 2 to go to party members. Currently Jenrick leads clearly with 10 declared MP endorsements and while Badenoch is second with 6 MPs behind her she is only just ahead of Stride and Tugendhat with 5 each. Cleverly and Patel are not too far behind either with 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/16/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    She has picked up the support of former Truss loyalist Sir Simon Clarke, not that that helps her much given he lost his seat last month and is now just an ordinary member

    Can we take these supporter counts seriously? We know each runner must have found 10 MPs to sign their papers even if ConHome can locate only 4 or 5.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ydoethur said:

    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    There is also an even chance that whoever is chosen becomes the next Prime Minister.
    Really?

    That's a new definition of 'even chance' I'm not familiar with.

    If Starmer bombs the chances are he'll be forced out.

    If he doesn't, it's very hard to see a path back to power for the Tories in just one term.
    I don't think supporters of the current iteration of the Conservative Party (including leadership challengers like Badenoch and Jenrick) have twigged that should Labour fail, and they (not Jenrick as far as I am aware) are on here every day wishing Starmer (and Reeves) to crash and burn, that the Conservative Party may not be the net beneficiaries of Labour failure.

    They cheered Nigel Farage after the Farage Riots. They whine about the two tier justice system when little old ladies (is 53 old?) are jailed for inciting mosques full to the brim with worshippers to be burned to the ground. They attack Labour failure to "stop the boats". All good stuff, but Labour's tumble in the polls does not reflect a Conservative resurgence. The net beneficiary is National Treasure Nigel Farage and his Reform Party.

    The Conservatives will never out Farage, Farage.
    Reform gaining votes from Labour also benefits the Tories in Labour marginals where the Tories are second
    You are back on your UNS horse again.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,476
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Almost all the JSO offenders given jail sentences had already been previously let off with suspended sentences but broken them. The rioters however were nearly all sent to jail straight away without passing go even after pleading guilty and if they showed some remorse given the damage they caused. Fair enough on both counts one would think
    All the reporting of jailed protestors so far seem to have a series of past offences too.

    It seems to be the usual criminal suspects who've engaged in criminality and found out that this time the Plod and courts were interested.

    Oh well, how sad, nevermind.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,295
    felix said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    What exactly is the rationale for Conservative challengers to promote the idea that a two-tier Britain exists and it is especially unfair to white supremacist football hooligans?

    The notion (which some of the leadership challengers are promoting) of a "two -tier" Britain is particularly troublesome for the Conservatives bearing in mind they were overseeing "two- tier" Britain until six weeks ago. Although I suspect Kemi Badenoch's idea of a "two tier" Britain is somewhat different to my own, and she doesn't believe it existed before July 5th.

    It's simple. No excuse for the violence which came from a tiny minority of thugs. But a need to acknowledge that around 40/50% of people from all parties want immigration controlled and are not racist for thinking that. At the very least people deserve a clear explanation as to the difficulties associated with control of immigration.
    Immigration is controlled. You try marrying a foreigner and then bringing them into the UK to see how difficult the experience is for a sort of immigration that I think most people are pretty fine with.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,261
    felix said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    What exactly is the rationale for Conservative challengers to promote the idea that a two-tier Britain exists and it is especially unfair to white supremacist football hooligans?

    The notion (which some of the leadership challengers are promoting) of a "two -tier" Britain is particularly troublesome for the Conservatives bearing in mind they were overseeing "two- tier" Britain until six weeks ago. Although I suspect Kemi Badenoch's idea of a "two tier" Britain is somewhat different to my own, and she doesn't believe it existed before July 5th.

    It's simple. No excuse for the violence which came from a tiny minority of thugs. But a need to acknowledge that around 40/50% of people from all parties want immigration controlled and are not racist for thinking that. At the very least people deserve a clear explanation as to the difficulties associated with control of immigration.
    "I isn't racist, but..."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    edited August 2024
    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    The Tories polled 34% with Yougov under IDS in late 2003 before he was ousted, the next Tory leader would give his eye teeth for that given Labour only got 33% last month.

    IDS was also against Blair, the most charismatic and centrist and appealing leader and PM Labour have ever had, even if Iraq hit his appeal. Starmer is a dull Brownite and not in Blair's league in terms of appeal to Middle Britain
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Badenoch doesn't have much going for her. A step up from Jenrick however.

    Jenrick is a better speaker than Badenoch and brighter in my view
    But he's also more of a ****!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940

    Miliband killing industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/17/ed-miliband-zero-electricity-pricing-force-factories-close/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,772
    Mr. Roberts, on that point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTv5ckMe_2M
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Almost all the JSO offenders given jail sentences had already been previously let off with suspended sentences but broken them. The rioters however were nearly all sent to jail straight away without passing go even after pleading guilty and if they showed some remorse given the damage they caused. Fair enough on both counts one would think
    The JSO neither carried out nor threatened violence to people is the big difference.
    What about pure vandalism ?

    Is that ok ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,261
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looking at that field, I would say there's a non-trivial chance that whoever the winner is, the Tories will end up feeling positively nostalgic for the days of IDS.

    The Tories polled 34% with Yougov under IDS in late 2003 before he was ousted, the next Tory leader would give his eye teeth for that given Labour only got 33% last month.

    IDS was also against Blair, the most charismatic and centrist and appealing leader and PM Labour have ever had, even if Iraq hit his appeal. Starmer is a dull Brownite and not in Blair's league in terms of appeal to Middle Britain
    Blair only got 35% in 2005.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    felix said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    She's on holiday but Kemi's got time to write hypocritical filth for the Mail on Sunday.

    We shouldn't dismiss everyone who took part in the recent disorder as fanatics, says Kemi Badenoch, shortly after dismissing everyone who took part in the recent pro-Palestinian protests as anti-semites.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1825076944242679944

    What exactly is the rationale for Conservative challengers to promote the idea that a two-tier Britain exists and it is especially unfair to white supremacist football hooligans?

    The notion (which some of the leadership challengers are promoting) of a "two -tier" Britain is particularly troublesome for the Conservatives bearing in mind they were overseeing "two- tier" Britain until six weeks ago. Although I suspect Kemi Badenoch's idea of a "two tier" Britain is somewhat different to my own, and she doesn't believe it existed before July 5th.

    It's simple. No excuse for the violence which came from a tiny minority of thugs. But a need to acknowledge that around 40/50% of people from all parties want immigration controlled and are not racist for thinking that. At the very least people deserve a clear explanation as to the difficulties associated with control of immigration.
    "I isn't racist, but..."
    I wondered which moron would be first!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,983
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Climbing oneself to the top of the Dartford Crossing Bridge to bring the M25 to a standstill should justify an appropriate sentence. However, we have posters on here who seem to believe climbing on the bridge over the Thames at Dartford warrants a longer sentence than attempting to burn down a Holiday Inn Express full of guests. Madness!
    If the police thought there was a genuine risk of that place being burnt down, then armed police would have been called and the perpetrators would have been shot.

    This isn't to defend the knuckle draggers who were doing it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,972
    edited August 2024
    Mexicanpete said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I listen to LBC far too much, and there's an awful lot of talk that "students can't afford the debt from student fees, I know let's return funding to the public sector and limit places to the elite 7%".

    Keep the riff-raff out of higher education for their own good, could be a policy on the next Tory manifesto
    The 'riff-raff' who would be kept out of universities if they returned to a 20-25% level would be the less academic half of middle class teens.

    Only a generation ago it was perfectly normal for middle class kids to enter the workforce at 18, or even 16.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    darkage said:

    As a matter of interest it is worth reading the sentencing remarks of the judge in the 'just stop oil' case as it is often cited in comparison with the current round of sentencing.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Hallam-and-others.pdf

    The participants got 4 years in jail rising to 5 for the leader. There was however intent to cause significant disruption, no guilty pleas, no mitigation, and concern about how they had conducted themselves in the trial. Also, those involved had previous convictions, in all but one case, they had multiple convictions connected to direct action protest.

    This appears to indicate to a determination to use imprisonment as a way to manage protest, consistent with the 'far right' protests, but it is notable in the Just Stop Oil cases, the fate of imprisonment seems to have been reserved for repeat offenders.

    But you aren't really comparing like with like.

    Two major aggravating factors with the racist riots is the violence and racism therein.
    Climbing oneself to the top of the Dartford Crossing Bridge to bring the M25 to a standstill should justify an appropriate sentence. However, we have posters on here who seem to believe climbing on the bridge over the Thames at Dartford warrants a longer sentence than attempting to burn down a Holiday Inn Express full of guests. Madness!
    Well in actual damage inflicted those who "climbed on the bridge" caused far more damage, millions of pounds of damage, and had a series of similar offences. Dismissing it as "climbing on a bridge" is like dismissing attempting to burn down a Holiday Inn full of guests as "playing with matches".

    Both are incredibly serious offences though and both should be taken seriously.
    I am not for one moment defending JSO.

    However on the scale of judicial retribution I would hope substantially inconveniencing motorists is further down the sentencing correlation curve than trying to burn 350 hotel guests to death.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,677
    Sunday light relief (and I wonder if it is near @JosiasJessop ?)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/17/failure-of-roman-engineering-on-industrial-scale-discovery-of-water-wells-in-england-proves-trial-and-error
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    another_richard said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I listen to LBC far too much, and there's an awful lot of talk that "students can't afford the debt from student fees, I know let's return funding to the public sector and limit places to the elite 7%".

    Keep the riff-raff out of higher education for their own good, could be a policy on the next Tory manifesto
    The 'riff-raff' who would be kept out of universities if they returned to a 20-25% level would be the less academic half of middle class teens.

    Only a generation ago it was perfectly normal for middle class kids to enter the workforce at 18, or even 16.
    The hole in the workforce is partly caused by too many undergraduates and Osbornes early retirement wheeze to get people drawing pensions at 55. Together these could have taken 1 million people out of the workforce.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,972
    SandyRentool said:

    You encounter some right tossers in Yarm. Full of themselves.

    So why the Tories chose Yarm for a hustings, I have no idea.

    Isn't it popular among Middlesbrough footballers ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    Alanbrooke said:


    Miliband killing industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/17/ed-miliband-zero-electricity-pricing-force-factories-close/

    Whenever the Field Marshal posts some old shite from the Telegraph can we have a community note from the moderators highlighting his source is the Telegraph?

    When the author is Allister Heath can this community note be highlighted in bold italics please?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Alanbrooke said:


    Miliband killing industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/17/ed-miliband-zero-electricity-pricing-force-factories-close/

    Is it fair to say you’re not a fan of the current Government Alan? Better get used to it - we’ve probably got 15 years with this lot! 😂
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    murali_s said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Miliband killing industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/17/ed-miliband-zero-electricity-pricing-force-factories-close/

    Is it fair to say you’re not a fan of the current Government Alan? Better get used to it - we’ve probably got 15 years with this lot! 😂
    Those of us who work in manufacturing have been used to this shit for the last 30 years.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,323
    another_richard said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I listen to LBC far too much, and there's an awful lot of talk that "students can't afford the debt from student fees, I know let's return funding to the public sector and limit places to the elite 7%".

    Keep the riff-raff out of higher education for their own good, could be a policy on the next Tory manifesto
    The 'riff-raff' who would be kept out of universities if they returned to a 20-25% level would be the less academic half of middle class teens.

    Only a generation ago it was perfectly normal for middle class kids to enter the workforce at 18, or even 16.
    150 years ago they could sweep chimneys at six, so your point is?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    Mexicanpete said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Miliband killing industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/17/ed-miliband-zero-electricity-pricing-force-factories-close/

    Whenever the Field Marshal posts some old shite from the Telegraph can we have a community note from the moderators highlighting his source is the Telegraph?

    When the author is Allister Heath can this community note be highlighted in bold italics please?
    Do you work in manufacturing ? Do you face P&Ls which force people out of jobs and businesses to close down ?

    I suspect not.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,476
    Alanbrooke said:

    murali_s said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Miliband killing industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/17/ed-miliband-zero-electricity-pricing-force-factories-close/

    Is it fair to say you’re not a fan of the current Government Alan? Better get used to it - we’ve probably got 15 years with this lot! 😂
    Those of us who work in manufacturing have been used to this shit for the last 30 years.
    Well indeed, the article actually says in the middle that this is a policy proposed under the last government, but then you link it and say it is Miliband that is responsible.

    Though having a more user pays energy system seems entirely reasonable to me, if you want to invest in manufacturing and get cheaper energy because you invest closer to where the energy is produced so there's lower transmission costs then that seems good for those manufacturing firms.

    Bad for those firms who expect others to carry their costs for them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,969
    Mexicanpete said:

    another_richard said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I listen to LBC far too much, and there's an awful lot of talk that "students can't afford the debt from student fees, I know let's return funding to the public sector and limit places to the elite 7%".

    Keep the riff-raff out of higher education for their own good, could be a policy on the next Tory manifesto
    The 'riff-raff' who would be kept out of universities if they returned to a 20-25% level would be the less academic half of middle class teens.

    Only a generation ago it was perfectly normal for middle class kids to enter the workforce at 18, or even 16.
    150 years ago they could sweep chimneys at six, so your point is?
    Now they can't even bleed radiators. Where are your Pisa tables now?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    edited August 2024
    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    Depends on the course 'It is mostly arts and social sciences graduates earning salaries below the £29,120 threshold...Across all UK universities, the highest-earning subjects 15 months after graduating were dentistry and veterinary medicine, with median graduate salaries of £42,000 and £35,000 respectively...
    Some leading law firms offer starting salaries to newly qualified lawyers, generally aged 25 or 26, of £170,000 or £180,000 a year.'

    Plus over a lifetime graduates earn more 'Overall, the IFS found that getting a degree would increase average net lifetime earnings by 20 per cent for men and women.'
    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,972
    Alanbrooke said:

    another_richard said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Nearly three quarters of graduates earn less than £29,120 — the average salary of those aged 22 to 29 — more than 15 months after leaving university, according to official figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa).

    Five years later, they have still not caught up. A separate study of graduate tax data in the same year, by the Department for Education, reveals that they earned £3,300 a year less than the median salary for their age group by this later stage.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/graduate-salary-2024-ranked-university-course-37qdft799

    I listen to LBC far too much, and there's an awful lot of talk that "students can't afford the debt from student fees, I know let's return funding to the public sector and limit places to the elite 7%".

    Keep the riff-raff out of higher education for their own good, could be a policy on the next Tory manifesto
    The 'riff-raff' who would be kept out of universities if they returned to a 20-25% level would be the less academic half of middle class teens.

    Only a generation ago it was perfectly normal for middle class kids to enter the workforce at 18, or even 16.
    The hole in the workforce is partly caused by too many undergraduates and Osbornes early retirement wheeze to get people drawing pensions at 55. Together these could have taken 1 million people out of the workforce.
    It might be possible in the 2060s to be drawing on your pension while still paying student loans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,149
    Alain Delon has died aged 88
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2n6y4g700o
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