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Vance is looking like a hindrance – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I couldn't disagree with you more.

    Ukraine isn't sending it elite forces forwards in Donbas, its letting Russia send its troops into the meat grinder and killing them off. So long as Ukraine maintains the ability to grind down what Russia sends at it, then its not diverting its own forces.

    And Russia has already sent reinforcements to Kursk (including reinforcements that have already been killed and captured), that's quite potentially already diverting away reinforcements away from Donbas.

    Opportunity cost is as real in war as it is in economics and Russia faces that opportunity cost struggle with what to do with reinforcements now. Reinforcements it needs in both places, because Ukraine is successfully grinding down its troops in Donbas, and successfully expanding operations in Kursk.
    Ukraine is sending their elite forces into Russia, where they’re encountering a surprisingly limited pushback from the enemy.

    By now, those special forces have likely evacuated themselves and are looking at the next undefended Russian border.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited August 2024

    Back at the beginning of her career, my wife was the Nimitz’s mascot 😊
    The US Navy still has bizarre (to my ears) things called Friends and Family Cruises, where they take hundreds of Friends and Family out for the day to sea. Applies to all kinds of USN ships.

    Flight operations with thousands of civilians on the flight deck.

    I'm sure it does wonders for public engagement, and is to do with a society far more permeated by the military - which may be where we need to be going again, but our Admirals would have kittens.

    OTOH the USA is not a risk-averse society.

    Here's one from the George H W Bush ie the top aircraft carrier costing $6bn+ from June 2023.

    https://www.dvidshub.net/video/886781/uss-george-hw-bush-cvn-77-friends-and-family-day-cruise
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    Luntz focus group on Harris switchers.

    "I don't wanna be ruled by Christian Nationalists with their Project 2025"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8-RpAErmo4
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    MattW said:

    The US Navy still has bizarre (to my ears) things called Friends and Family Cruises, where they take hundreds of Friends and Family out for the day to sea. Applies to all kinds of USN ships.

    Flight operations with thousands of civilians on the flight deck.

    I'm sure it does wonders for public engagement, and is to do with a society far more permeated by the military - which may be where we need to be going, but our Admirals would have kittens. But the USA is not a risk-averse society.

    Here's one from the George Bush from June 2023.

    https://www.dvidshub.net/video/886781/uss-george-hw-bush-cvn-77-friends-and-family-day-cruise
    Including Trident missiles subs.... https://www.usff.navy.mil/Press-Room/News-Stories/Article/3214140/families-join-uss-wyoming-crew-experience-life-aboard-ballistic-missile-submari/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited August 2024
    kamski said:

    This is what I don't get - why Trump dissing military heroes doesn't just immediately finish off his candidacy. I mean what the hell is going on? I get that I high proportion of those getting military medals won't be white and that might annoy Trump because he's a fucking racist, but still, how do his patriotic supporters explain this stuff away? He's got a fair bit of form on this, I guess he just doesn't love America.
    It's enough to make your head explode, isn't it. There's about a million public instances of him being either imbecilic, eg the 'supply chains' ramble, or crass/nasty, eg this one about preferring 'healthy beautiful women' (pass the sick bucket) to wounded or dead soldiers who've shown heroism in battle, or (which he often manages tbf) imbecilic and crass/nasty at the same time.

    Yet here he stands, the GOP candidate for president with either a 45% or a 33% chance of winning, depending on whether you listen to the market or to me.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Andy_JS said:

    Oh.

    "Train drivers to strike every weekend for next three months despite bumper pay rise
    Members of the Aslef union are starting a fresh campaign at LNER"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/16/train-drivers-strike-pay-rise/

    Somehow you can always trust the left to destroy itself.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,695
    HYUFD said:

    Even the Secret Service are only there to protect the President not arrest others except those directly threatening the President's life. The armed forces in the US swear to uphold the constitution as well as follow the orders of the President
    The US Secret Service also deals with currency-related crimes and can make arrests for that purpose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    "We are now back to the same electoral map that we had before Mr. Biden’s summertime polling collapse: Once again, the winner in November will come down to the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."


    NY Times analysis of the state of play.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited August 2024

    Including Trident missiles subs.... https://www.usff.navy.mil/Press-Room/News-Stories/Article/3214140/families-join-uss-wyoming-crew-experience-life-aboard-ballistic-missile-submari/
    On needing to reintegrate our military more, the main possible recent success I can see is the increase in CCF chapters in State Schools.

    I wonder if we will get Manning the Mast back after about 3 decades.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFeUO1R3-eg
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    The US Secret Service also deals with currency-related crimes and can make arrests for that purpose.
    Such arrests are a dime a dozen.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    ydoethur said:

    Such arrests are a dime a dozen.
    I wouldn't give a nickel....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    I wouldn't give a nickel....
    Trump will certainly give no quarter.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,695
    FF43 said:

    Sure. My point is a limited one. If the purpose of this invasion was to divert Russian resources to Kursk and away from Donbas, the upshot for now is Ukrainian resources have been diverted and the Russian ones haven't.
    Surely none of us can know what level of resource has or has not been diverted? No-one outside the Russian military command structure is going to know that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Stereodog said:

    Sorry if that breaks some kind of etiquette but it does seem a bit unnecessary
    Some context here.

    The 'fuck off' from Kamski (to BR) isn't regarding that specific comment. It's in general. They had a spat a couple of days ago whereby BR was rolling out some of his trademark unthinking anti-German bile and Kamski took offence to it and told BR to stop interacting with him.

    @kamski will correct me if I'm wrong but that's my take.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited August 2024

    Including Trident missiles subs.... https://www.usff.navy.mil/Press-Room/News-Stories/Article/3214140/families-join-uss-wyoming-crew-experience-life-aboard-ballistic-missile-submari/
    On needing to reintegrate our military more, the main possible recent success I can see is the increase in CCF chapters in State Schools.

    I wonder if we will get Manning the Mast back after about 3 decades.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFeUO1R3-eg

    Adds:

    I wonder if the Leeanderthal Man would suggest some of this in Parliament?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    I've just seen on X that the Americans have made it as far as Chihuahua. Before long they'll have the place on lock.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2024
    MattW said:

    On needing to reintegrate our military more, the main possible recent success I can see is the increase in CCF chapters in State Schools.

    I wonder if we will get Manning the Mast back after about 3 decades.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFeUO1R3-eg
    Thank goodness for lightning protectors. I couldn't do that and wear white trousers. I can hardly bear to watch as it is.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    darkage said:

    Somehow you can always trust the left to destroy itself.
    If you allow strikes to work, you will get more of them. I don't know why Labour finds this so hard to understand.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    Trump will certainly give no quarter.
    Really cool video about the history of money in film.

    In 1915, a law was passed that made it illegal to film US currency. Here’s what happened afterwards…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drLzVcgnBfI
  • MattW said:

    The US Navy still has bizarre (to my ears) things called Friends and Family Cruises, where they take hundreds of Friends and Family out for the day to sea. Applies to all kinds of USN ships.

    Flight operations with thousands of civilians on the flight deck.

    I'm sure it does wonders for public engagement, and is to do with a society far more permeated by the military - which may be where we need to be going again, but our Admirals would have kittens.

    OTOH the USA is not a risk-averse society.

    Here's one from the George H W Bush ie the top aircraft carrier costing $6bn+ from June 2023.

    https://www.dvidshub.net/video/886781/uss-george-hw-bush-cvn-77-friends-and-family-day-cruise
    Blimey. The crowd is only about 15 feet away. If anyone had sneezed, the pilot would be out with Covid.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,267
    ydoethur said:

    Such arrests are a dime a dozen.
    You may think you won this punning round baht to be franc it is time to get real and it will be clear who the rightful owner of this crown is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    darkage said:

    Somehow you can always trust the left to destroy itself.
    Except hold on - it's the telegraph.
  • Cookie said:

    If you allow strikes to work, you will get more of them. I don't know why Labour finds this so hard to understand.
    It's possible to distinguish. I think most people have far less sympathy with the train drivers than with the doctors. If Labour have any sense they will make sure a deal is done quickly with the latter while standing firm against the former.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    You may think you won this punning round baht to be franc it is time to get real and it will be clear who the rightful owner of this crown is.
    Yes.

    It will be clear that unlike this one, your effort was not up to the mark.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797
    MattW said:

    The US Navy still has bizarre (to my ears) things called Friends and Family Cruises, where they take hundreds of Friends and Family out for the day to sea. Applies to all kinds of USN ships.

    Flight operations with thousands of civilians on the flight deck.

    I'm sure it does wonders for public engagement, and is to do with a society far more permeated by the military - which may be where we need to be going again, but our Admirals would have kittens.

    OTOH the USA is not a risk-averse society.

    Here's one from the George H W Bush ie the top aircraft carrier costing $6bn+ from June 2023.

    https://www.dvidshub.net/video/886781/uss-george-hw-bush-cvn-77-friends-and-family-day-cruise
    I was on HMS Bulwark (R08) for a Family Day in about 1974, in the Solent outside Portsmouth Harbour. Stood on the command superstructure to watch a Harrier land and take off, had lunch in the officers mess, clambered about below decks to see my father's cabin. Such fun!

    P.S. I was christened on board HMS Ark Royal (R09) in 1964, using the ship's bell as a baptismal font. My name should be engraved in the bell, but last I heard it was missing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    I was on HMS Bulwark (R08) for a Family Day in about 1974, in the Solent outside Portsmouth Harbour. Stood on the command superstructure to watch a Harrier land and take off, had lunch in the officers mess, clambered about below decks to see my father's cabin. Such fun!

    P.S. I was christened on board HMS Ark Royal (R09) in 1964, using the ship's bell as a baptismal font. My name should be engraved in the bell, but last I heard it was missing.
    Your name, the bell or the engraving on the bell?
  • It's possible to distinguish. I think most people have far less sympathy with the train drivers than with the doctors. If Labour have any sense they will make sure a deal is done quickly with the latter while standing firm against the former.
    Not sure what is going on with the doctors tbh and wonder if someone did not notice that junior hospital doctors and GPs are not the same.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797
    Carnyx said:

    Thank goodness for lightning protectors. I couldn't do that and wear white trousers. I can hardly bear to watch as it is.
    Ooh, it's all retro Navy stuff to which I can contribute. They used to do that at HMS Ganges, which was the naval training establishment for boy seamen. My father had to do that when he was 15 or 16, around 1956. The topmost position was called the button boy, and got (IIRC) sixpence for doing it each time, as you had to hold on with your knees only. I bet it was that Health n Safety lot what stopped it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Cookie said:

    If you allow strikes to work, you will get more of them. I don't know why Labour finds this so hard to understand.
    And if you never allow strikes to work you're effectively removing the right to strike. So both extremes being sub-optimal you're left with negotiation/compromise and settlements informed by a mixture of balance of power and merit of the claim.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    kinabalu said:

    Except hold on - it's the telegraph.
    Are the facts about a forthcoming LNER strike wrong ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited August 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Are the facts about a forthcoming LNER strike wrong ?
    I imagine so.

    Edit: Or maybe not since I see it's also on the Beeb.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797
    ydoethur said:

    Your name, the bell or the engraving on the bell?
    The bell. They normally go into storage for the next time the name is used, but Ark Royal (R07) had to have a new bell.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    edited August 2024
    MattW said:

    The US Navy still has bizarre (to my ears) things called Friends and Family Cruises, where they take hundreds of Friends and Family out for the day to sea. Applies to all kinds of USN ships.

    Flight operations with thousands of civilians on the flight deck.

    Popularly know as a "Tiger Cruise" and it's a very big deal. After we'd finished blowing the shit out of Afghanistan in 2001, we flew the entire air wing off the ship at Pearl to make room for the Tigers. We had to tank across the Pacific to Lemoore, CA then Meridian, MS then the weather turned to shit and our four ship diverted into the civvie airport at Branson, MO where we treated like royalty or the Osmonds.

    Unthinkable in the RN. Image somebody's mum being fed baby head stew that a reeking cook has stirred with his arm because he couldn't find a spoon.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797
    Dura_Ace said:

    Popularly know as a "Tiger Cruise" and it's a very big deal. After we'd finished blowing the shit out of Afghanistan in 2001, we flew the entire air wing off the ship at Pearl to make room for the Tigers. We had to tank across the Pacific to Lemoore, CA then Meridian, MS then the weather turned to shit and our four ship diverted into the civvie airport at Branson, MO where we treated like royalty or the Osmonds.

    Unthinkable in the RN. Image somebody's mum being fed baby head stew that a reeking cook has stirred with his arm because he couldn't find a spoon.
    The RN invented family days! (See my earlier post)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Dura_Ace said:

    Popularly know as a "Tiger Cruise" and it's a very big deal. After we'd finished blowing the shit out of Afghanistan in 2001, we flew the entire air wing off the ship at Pearl to make room for the Tigers. We had to tank across the Pacific to Lemoore, CA then Meridian, MS then the weather turned to shit and our four ship diverted into the civvie airport at Branson, MO where we treated like royalty or the Osmonds.

    Unthinkable in the RN. Image somebody's mum being fed baby head stew that a reeking cook has stirred with his arm because he couldn't find a spoon.
    The Grey Funnel Line.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    kinabalu said:

    I imagine so.

    Edit: Or maybe not since I see it's also on the Beeb.
    Don't worry Kina, you're not in charge of the negotiations.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    It's possible to distinguish. I think most people have far less sympathy with the train drivers than with the doctors. If Labour have any sense they will make sure a deal is done quickly with the latter while standing firm against the former.
    I’m not entirely convinced there is much sympathy with the doctors, to be frank.

    Teachers and nursing staff, absolutely.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,335
    edited August 2024
    ..
    Cookie said:

    If you allow strikes to work, you will get more of them. I don't know why Labour finds this so hard to understand.
    How does one avoid allowing strikes to work? Obstruct, prevaricate and lie with resultant extended industrial action like the last shower which as one of them admitted ended up costing more than the pay demands?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited August 2024
    Taz said:

    Who can blame him. People go on about Mick Lynch being a canny operator. He's a boorish Corbynite who eventually folded. On the other hand Mick Whelan is a smart cookie. He knows he has the govt on the rack and he is exerting the pressure.

    The only question is when the government cave in, not if they cave in.
    Doubtful about Whelan being a smart cookie. You go on strike every weekend because you think LNER is being horrid? What actually is your goal that strikes might deliver? If you strike over pay your hoped for objective is a bigger pay packet.

    And by the way the proposed pay settlement isn't that great, at a bit below national average pay increases over the period. Train drivers will have forgone a chunk of their income when striking to get it.

    What is clear however is strikes are ASLEF's weapon of first instance rather than keeping them in reserve for maximum effect.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Pulpstar said:

    Don't worry Kina, you're not in charge of the negotiations.
    It's not my favourite strike tbh. The train drivers.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    kinabalu said:

    And if you never allow strikes to work you're effectively removing the right to strike. So both extremes being sub-optimal you're left with negotiation/compromise and settlements informed by a mixture of balance of power and merit of the claim.
    I'm not suggesting removing the right to strike. I can't see why it should be illegal to withold your labour. But I'd suggest for an employer, acceding to the demands of a strike is counter productive: there won't be any less striking as a result, and there will probably be more. Like paying Danegeld - valid as a short term solution, but the people demanding money have a disappointing tendency to come back and demand more: you'd better have a long term alternative.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited August 2024

    It's possible to distinguish. I think most people have far less sympathy with the train drivers than with the doctors. If Labour have any sense they will make sure a deal is done quickly with the latter while standing firm against the former.
    IMO you need strong unions more in the private sector than the public sector (since rank exploitation by an employer is more likely there) but in practice it seems the other way round. Unions struggle for influence in the private sector.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    ydoethur said:

    Trump will certainly give no quarter.
    As straight as a three-dollar bill, that one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    kinabalu said:

    And if you never allow strikes to work you're effectively removing the right to strike. So both extremes being sub-optimal you're left with negotiation/compromise and settlements informed by a mixture of balance of power and merit of the claim.
    The sane. modern approach is no-strike agreements, complete with independent pay review boards, independent resolution for grievances and a final recourse to law and then strikes, if all of the above fail.

    They very rarely fail.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Wonder if Harris realizes that President Nixon actually instituted wage and price controls? As I recall, they were popular with the public at first, but that faded. He also put controls on soy bean exports -- which killed the sales to japan.

    Perhaps she should propose cuts in gas taxes, or housing costs in places like San Francisco.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    kinabalu said:

    IMO you need strong unions more in the private sector than the public sector (since rank exploitation by an employer is more likely there) but in practice it seems the other way round. Unions struggle for influence in the private sector.
    "since rank exploitation by an employer is more likely there"

    Just from *using* the NHS, I've seen employment practises that would get you booted in large chunks of the private sector.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247

    The sane. modern approach is no-strike agreements, complete with independent pay review boards, independent resolution for grievances and a final recourse to law and then strikes, if all of the above fail.

    They very rarely fail.
    Which is why the government consistently overriding the Doctors "independent" payload pissed people off so much as to precipitate the recent strikes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    I'll probably watch this in full later. Tim Dodd takes a tour round a rocket factory.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsuqSn7ifpU

    Hopefully a certain other billionaire will be able to send a congratulatory "Well done on making orbit" message to Bezos soon ;)
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,625
    Stereodog said:

    Sorry if that breaks some kind of etiquette but it does seem a bit unnecessary
    You’re right it is whatever people,feel about anyone, and I shouldn’t call you out for it as I risk being a vigilante mod too 😀
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Foxy said:

    Which is why the government consistently overriding the Doctors "independent" payload pissed people off so much as to precipitate the recent strikes.
    In order for a no strike agreement to work, you need far more than just an independent pay review.

    As far as I can tell, you'd need to burn down much of the employment practises in the NHS. And start again.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    kinabalu said:

    IMO you need strong unions more in the private sector than the public sector (since rank exploitation by an employer is more likely there) but in practice it seems the other way round. Unions struggle for influence in the private sector.
    In the private sector, it's easier to move from one employer to another if you are dissatisfied with your job.
    Also, the private sector has been more successful at sidelining unions and dealing with individuals.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    PB Tories have short memories, as far as political history is concerned.
    I look forward to their denunciation of the fatally flawed Mrs T.

    According to this logic the 25 % pay rise that Margaret Thatcher agreed with public sector unions in 1979 would make her the weakest Prime Minister in British history
    https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1824087765434208692
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    This is an interesting study.
    We should do more of these.

    Doctor quality matters a lot.

    Norwegian study finds that replacing one of the 5% worst general practitioners with one of average quality generates a social benefit of $9.05 million.

    https://x.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1823990866731512292
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    When I was much younger, the Democrats used to hold Jefferson-Jackson fund raising dinners. And Jackson did increase voting by poorer white men.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Popular_vote_results
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    "since rank exploitation by an employer is more likely there"

    Just from *using* the NHS, I've seen employment practises that would get you booted in large chunks of the private sector.
    Oh yes for sure. But on the whole, on a ranking of UK employers for predilection to rankly exploit, the Govt (even a Tory one) will not feature towards the top.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll probably watch this in full later. Tim Dodd takes a tour round a rocket factory.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsuqSn7ifpU

    Hopefully a certain other billionaire will be able to send a congratulatory "Well done on making orbit" message to Bezos soon ;)

    Blue Origin has made much better progress since the Old Space clown show management got told to take a hike.

    Anyone who touched Kistler should have been unhireable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725

    When I was much younger, the Democrats used to hold Jefferson-Jackson fund raising dinners. And Jackson did increase voting by poorer white men.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Popular_vote_results

    They did so until quite recently; similarly the GOP with 'Lincoln Dinners'.

    The GOP, though, is no longer the party of Lincoln; nor the Democratic Party the party of Jackson (who is now Trump's favourite president).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Cookie said:

    In the private sector, it's easier to move from one employer to another if you are dissatisfied with your job.
    Also, the private sector has been more successful at sidelining unions and dealing with individuals.
    You're not agreeing with me then? That it'd be better if unions were stronger in the private sector than in the public sector whereas as we have it in reverse?

    Thought I'd come up with a real 'hands across the water' there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,365
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll probably watch this in full later. Tim Dodd takes a tour round a rocket factory.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsuqSn7ifpU

    Hopefully a certain other billionaire will be able to send a congratulatory "Well done on making orbit" message to Bezos soon ;)

    It's very good, and Bezos's obvious enthusiasm and knowledge has put some of the Elonstans in a bad mood. :)

    The different approaches between the two companies are quite interesting; it'll be intriguing to see how the first New Glenn launch goes later in the year.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    The sane. modern approach is no-strike agreements, complete with independent pay review boards, independent resolution for grievances and a final recourse to law and then strikes, if all of the above fail.

    They very rarely fail.
    Sounds good. So long as you can still withdraw your labour as a last resort.

    Strikes should be safe and legal and rare.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Academic economist Alan Taylor appointed to the MPC. Impressive CV but he doesn't appear to have spent much time here since his student days at Cambridge. How well does he know the UK economy?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    kinabalu said:

    Sounds good. So long as you can still withdraw your labour as a last resort.

    Strikes should be safe and legal and rare.
    See the various factories in the UK which moved to such agreements - car manufacturing was first, in the 80s.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    Academic economist Alan Taylor appointed to the MPC. Impressive CV but he doesn't appear to have spent much time here since his student days at Cambridge. How well does he know the UK economy?

    The impressive CV is needed for credibility with the markets. The only thing anyone will care about is how he votes though. Is he a Catherine Mann style hawk or a Swati Dinghra dove. Note he will not I think get a vote at the next MPC meeting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    Another deep dive from the economy press conference - this time, credit card debt.
    https://x.com/MetaResistance/status/1824211918237864324
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    Last nights local byelections were 3 Labour wins, with Lab vote increases in Scotland and Wales and swing to Cobynite independent in Islington.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Pulpstar said:

    The impressive CV is needed for credibility with the markets. The only thing anyone will care about is how he votes though. Is he a Catherine Mann style hawk or a Swati Dinghra dove. Note he will not I think get a vote at the next MPC meeting.
    That's a short termist financier/mortgage holder take. Surely the most important thing is whether he votes for rate rises/cuts at the right time. I would have thought a good understanding of the UK economy would be needed to do that, no?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Nigelb said:

    Another deep dive from the economy press conference - this time, credit card debt.
    https://x.com/MetaResistance/status/1824211918237864324

    Let's always remember how Cameron was about to tell the British public not to get into debt on their cards when someone from the Treasury or Bank of England warned him that the whole economy functions on the basis of people spending more than they have on cards, and he had to scrap the idea.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited August 2024
    Not exactly return of grown-ups to the room.

    Yesterday, the @FT ran a piece about government assurances around compute. We’re confused by the government creating an AI Opportunities taskforce days before canning investment, and now backtracking. We’ve spoken to multiple insiders to figure out what’s going on. It's bad. 1/10

    https://x.com/chalmermagne/status/1824387972952682514
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245

    Academic economist Alan Taylor appointed to the MPC. Impressive CV but he doesn't appear to have spent much time here since his student days at Cambridge. How well does he know the UK economy?

    That could be viewed as a positive. The last thing you want is groupthink, as has been in the past accused by the like of Mervyn King.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,671
    edited August 2024

    That's a short termist financier/mortgage holder take. Surely the most important thing is whether he votes for rate rises/cuts at the right time. I would have thought a good understanding of the UK economy would be needed to do that, no?
    Mark Carney waves hello, he did a pretty good job despite being a Canuck.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited August 2024
    kenObi said:

    That could be viewed as a positive. The last thing you want is groupthink, as has been in the past accused by the like of Mervyn King.
    Well one thing the MPC doesn't have right now is groupthink - Mann and Greene have very different views to Dinghra with Bailey and the others somewhere in the middle. It'll be interesting to see where Taylor is. Is anyone familiar enough with his work to be able to work out his likely positions ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,840

    Mark Carney waves hello, he did a pretty good job despite being a Canuck.
    He also contributed to Vote Leave winning the referendum.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    One of the most powerful examples of leftist bigotry in our media is their unwillingness to mention PEPFAR, which is estimated to have saved more than 25 million lives, so far. Most of them poor blacks in sub-Saharan Africa.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President's_Emergency_Plan_for_AIDS_Relief

    Will the BBC will do a big series on the program, starting when the annual report comes out this September 30th, which is an important anniversary? I wouldn't bet on it.

  • Nigelb said:

    PB Tories have short memories, as far as political history is concerned.
    I look forward to their denunciation of the fatally flawed Mrs T.

    According to this logic the 25 % pay rise that Margaret Thatcher agreed with public sector unions in 1979 would make her the weakest Prime Minister in British history
    https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1824087765434208692

    Do you know the inflation rates from the second half of the 70s?

    75 - 24.21%
    76 - 16.56%
    77 - 15.84%
    78 - 8.26%
    79 - 13.42%
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,365

    Not exactly return of grown-ups to the room.

    Yesterday, the @FT ran a piece about government assurances around compute. We’re confused by the government creating an AI Opportunities taskforce days before canning investment, and now backtracking. We’ve spoken to multiple insiders to figure out what’s going on. It's bad. 1/10

    https://x.com/chalmermagne/status/1824387972952682514

    And now the RMT want the same pay deal as ASLEF got.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg49v5k771o

    So the magic money tree helps Labour's own.

    And whilst on the railways, ASLEF are striking on LNER, despite the payrise. "He accused the train operator of "repeatedly" breaking agreements, acting in "bad faith", and of "boorish behaviour and bullying tactics"."

    How awful these private companies are!

    Oh.

    LNER is run by the government...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    Andy_JS said:

    Let's always remember how Cameron was about to tell the British public not to get into debt on their cards when someone from the Treasury or Bank of England warned him that the whole economy functions on the basis of people spending more than they have on cards, and he had to scrap the idea.
    He should just have gone with "vote Trump", obvs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Cookie said:

    I'm not suggesting removing the right to strike. I can't see why it should be illegal to withold your labour. But I'd suggest for an employer, acceding to the demands of a strike is counter productive: there won't be any less striking as a result, and there will probably be more. Like paying Danegeld - valid as a short term solution, but the people demanding money have a disappointing tendency to come back and demand more: you'd better have a long term alternative.
    Well there's already a failure in relations if there's a strike. It then has to be settled and your "acceding to its demands" usually means a negotiated settlement in the (ample) territory between two extremes, ie with neither the bosses nor the workers caving in entirely. Both of those outcomes are unhealthy because you don't want cowed bosses or cowed workers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725

    Do you know the inflation rates from the second half of the 70s?

    75 - 24.21%
    76 - 16.56%
    77 - 15.84%
    78 - 8.26%
    79 - 13.42%
    Indeed.
    And what's the inflation rate for 2022, 2022, and 2024 ?

    In that context, is the approx 5% per annum agreed worse than the deal Thatcher struck ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited August 2024

    And now the RMT want the same pay deal as ASLEF got.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg49v5k771o

    So the magic money tree helps Labour's own.

    And whilst on the railways, ASLEF are striking on LNER, despite the payrise. "He accused the train operator of "repeatedly" breaking agreements, acting in "bad faith", and of "boorish behaviour and bullying tactics"."

    How awful these private companies are!

    Oh.

    LNER is run by the government...
    I think it was obvious the unions were going to get their returns for all the years of backing Labour. However, I honestly presumed this growth mantra would mean that Labour would still be spending on infrastructure that could boost productivity and investment in the UK. Expanding big compute is not only sensible thing to do, but a necessity, if you have a knowledge based economy.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Nigelb said:

    I find it difficult to argue with this thread.
    The decision on the Edinburgh computing centre just seems to have been a bad one, and they're unwilling to admit outright that it was wrong.

    Yesterday, the @FT ran a piece about government assurances around compute. We’re confused by the government creating an AI Opportunities taskforce days before canning investment, and now backtracking.

    We’ve spoken to multiple insiders to figure out what’s going on. It's bad. 🧵

    https://x.com/chalmermagne/status/1824387972952682514

    That's a very bad sign of the new government's competence, orientation to short-term thinking and unwillingness to recognise mistakes instead of trying to ineptly spin their way out of them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll probably watch this in full later. Tim Dodd takes a tour round a rocket factory.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsuqSn7ifpU

    Hopefully a certain other billionaire will be able to send a congratulatory "Well done on making orbit" message to Bezos soon ;)

    It’s pretty awesome that today’s billionaires like to go into space.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Ooh, it's all retro Navy stuff to which I can contribute. They used to do that at HMS Ganges, which was the naval training establishment for boy seamen. My father had to do that when he was 15 or 16, around 1956. The topmost position was called the button boy, and got (IIRC) sixpence for doing it each time, as you had to hold on with your knees only. I bet it was that Health n Safety lot what stopped it.
    Oh dear, Ganges was grim. I've read the memoirs and history. My father had it easy as an artificer apprentice - even with lesson 1 being how to cut and file an accurate cube one inch all round *by hand*, lesson two a hollow cylinder from a lump of metal with an *off-centre* hole in it, and so on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    And now the RMT want the same pay deal as ASLEF got.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg49v5k771o

    So the magic money tree helps Labour's own.

    And whilst on the railways, ASLEF are striking on LNER, despite the payrise. "He accused the train operator of "repeatedly" breaking agreements, acting in "bad faith", and of "boorish behaviour and bullying tactics"."

    How awful these private companies are!

    Oh.

    LNER is run by the government...
    I think Haigh is miles out of her depth now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    edited August 2024

    One of the most powerful examples of leftist bigotry in our media is their unwillingness to mention PEPFAR, which is estimated to have saved more than 25 million lives, so far. Most of them poor blacks in sub-Saharan Africa.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President's_Emergency_Plan_for_AIDS_Relief

    Will the BBC will do a big series on the program, starting when the annual report comes out this September 30th, which is an important anniversary? I wouldn't bet on it.

    "Leftist bigotry" ?
    Please.

    Notoriously right wing NPR.
    https://www.npr.org/2023/03/18/1164565617/a-look-at-pepfars-legacy-20-years-of-fighting-aids

    Arch conservative Joe Biden.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/28/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-20th-anniversary-of-the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/

    CSPAN
    https://www.c-span.org/video/?528504-1/20th-anniversary-presidents-emergency-plan-aids-relief

    NYT
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/opinion/aids-pepfar-bush.html

    WaPo
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/28/pepfar-aids-congress-reauthorize/



    Oh.

    Republicans delay more than $1 billion in HIV program funding
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/10/26/pepfar-funding-delays-hiv-abortion/

    I'm happy to acknowledge it as one of the great successes of the otherwise largely miserable Bush administrations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Sandpit said:

    It’s pretty awesome that today’s billionaires like to go into space.
    Bezos did this talk in 2019:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ98hGUe6FM

    Some nice O'Neill/High frontier inspired slides about 15 minutes in.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing the Kursk (& likely Belgorod in time too) offensive does is make the war existential for Russia in a way it previously was only for Ukraine.
    Unless either Kyiv or Moscow falls, facts on the ground will determine any post settlement ceasefire.

    It increases the peril for Putin, but it actually does that thing people were desperate to do early in the war - it provides Russia with an off-ramp.

    It creates the space for a negotiated settlement where Ukraine gives up occupied Russian territory in exchange for occupied Ukrainian territory. Previously, Russia had nothing to gain from negotiations. Now it does.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Nigelb said:

    "Leftist bigotry" ?
    Please.

    Notoriously right wing NPR.
    https://www.npr.org/2023/03/18/1164565617/a-look-at-pepfars-legacy-20-years-of-fighting-aids

    Arch conservative Joe Biden.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/28/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-20th-anniversary-of-the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/

    CSPAN
    https://www.c-span.org/video/?528504-1/20th-anniversary-presidents-emergency-plan-aids-relief

    NYT
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/opinion/aids-pepfar-bush.html

    WaPo
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/28/pepfar-aids-congress-reauthorize/



    Oh.

    Republicans delay more than $1 billion in HIV program funding
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/10/26/pepfar-funding-delays-hiv-abortion/

    I'm happy to acknowledge it as one of the great successes of the otherwise largely miserable Bush administrations.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/dec/01/world-aids-day-hiv-congress-republicans
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/oct/06/what-is-the-pepfar-fight-and-what-does-it-mean-for-africa
  • Anything major happened today?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    edited August 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Oh dear, Ganges was grim. I've read the memoirs and history. My father had it easy as an artificer apprentice - even with lesson 1 being how to cut and file an accurate cube one inch all round *by hand*, lesson two a hollow cylinder from a lump of metal with an *off-centre* hole in it, and so on.
    Make a cube on a lathe....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Nigelb said:

    Another deep dive from the economy press conference - this time, credit card debt.
    https://x.com/MetaResistance/status/1824211918237864324

    And that's him talking on what's meant to be a strong issue.

    You have to wonder how many more "economy press conferences" we'll see.
  • Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting study.
    We should do more of these.

    Doctor quality matters a lot.

    Norwegian study finds that replacing one of the 5% worst general practitioners with one of average quality generates a social benefit of $9.05 million.

    https://x.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1823990866731512292

    Yeah, my spidey-sense is tingling about this study. What it actually shows is if you cross out the worst results and pretend they didn't happen, we're halfway to the broad, sunlit uplands.

    The idea that replacing the GPs who treated these now-dead patients would massively improve outcomes is an assumption for which I'd want to see some evidence.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Haigh is miles out of her depth now.
    As HMG keeps caving in to the rail unions who will want to have managment career in Rail ?
    They will have no confidence the government will stand its ground. This is the recipe for gradual decline.

    Its back to the future for nationalised rail
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    kinabalu said:

    Some context here.

    The 'fuck off' from Kamski (to BR) isn't regarding that specific comment. It's in general. They had a spat a couple of days ago whereby BR was rolling out some of his trademark unthinking anti-German bile and Kamski took offence to it and told BR to stop interacting with him.

    @kamski will correct me if I'm wrong but that's my take.
    More that he repeatedly called me a Putin apologist on more than one occasion, and I really can't be bothered to interact with him any more. I scroll past his posts, but if he's going to reply to mine directly I can only repeat my message. Not sure why he'd want a Putin apologist to be polite to him so I think I'll stick with direct language if it's all the same.

    And that's the last I have to say on the subject.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    The article doesn't say that. It just has a Think Tank opining that New Towns aren't a Silver Bullet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,365
    Pulpstar said:

    Bezos did this talk in 2019:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ98hGUe6FM

    Some nice O'Neill/High frontier inspired slides about 15 minutes in.
    Bezos has been fascinated by space all his life, going back to his time at school. His vision is also more consistent and (dare I say...) sensible than Musk's, which includes plenty of underpants-style uncertainty.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725

    Yeah, my spidey-sense is tingling about this study. What it actually shows is if you cross out the worst results and pretend they didn't happen, we're halfway to the broad, sunlit uplands.

    The idea that replacing the GPs who treated these now-dead patients would massively improve outcomes is an assumption for which I'd want to see some evidence.
    Yes, me too - hence my comment.
    I would hope that they adjusted for confounding factors, though.

    I'd also take a very close look at what Taiwan's health service does. The capacity to innovate locally, and then have best practices adopted nationally, looks very attractive.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    kinabalu said:

    The article doesn't say that. It just has a Think Tank opining that New Towns aren't a Silver Bullet.
    Lol you just know youre being lined up for the 180 degree turn but are living in the hope they might actually stick to a commitment.

    Starmer is making BoJo look like a paragon of truth
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    kinabalu said:

    The article doesn't say that. It just has a Think Tank opining that New Towns aren't a Silver Bullet.
    Alan is desperate to declare failure, almost before they've started.
    I remain cautiously optimistic - not least as the policy I predicted pre-election, and which he said wouldn't happen, seems to be happening.
This discussion has been closed.