politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

System · December 2014

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

South Kintyre on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012) :

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

Apologies, the earlier thread about Andy's spreadsheets has been pulled, as erm we forget today was Thursday.

The other thread will be republished tomorrow.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

Oh and first

*Innocent face*

Socrates · December 2014

FalseFlag said:

Flightpath said:

Carnyx said:

Flightpath said:

Socrates said:
@antifrank

The SNP have shown that people are perfectly willing to engage in politics in the right circumstances. Our mainstream politicians have laboured under this misimpression that it's not their fault they're unpopular: it's just the public raging at globalisation etc. Well, actually, people are pretty keen on politics when they're offered a party that gives them a patriotic vision, that speaks to regular people as equals, and that doesn't just bend to the mainstream media. All three of our main parties have failed to do that, and have instead tried to appeal to a small circle in the media, and filled their operations with advertising executives and PR men. The whole collapse of British identity has happened because the entire political elite has avoided expressing a vision of that identity that appeals to the regular man on the street. As Orwell said, the left in England are people that have long disliked their own country, but what's truly embarrassing is that the Tories have bowed to that consensus. Hence the rise of UKIP.
The notion that the tories hate their own country shows what depths you have to sink to to justify your prejudice. Everything else is contorted drivel as well. I am British and my identity has not collapsed. Inevitably when all the people with chips on their shoulders run out of excuses its 'the PR men' who get it.
The SNP have managed to engage with the anti English which is one way to stir patritism that Samuel Johnson would recognise.
...
The Tories can't be very fond of their own country if they have left it in a state where we have to have foreign anti-submarine aircraft in Scottish coastal waters to do the basic job they should never have let lapse - defence.
A pretty absurd comment, given we are part of a massive multi nation defence treaty.
We have not let defense 'lapse'. We are for instance building 2 giant aircraft carriers and helping to develope an advance jet fighter to fly off them. mega billions and funding already the replacement for Trident.
What a waste of money.

% of GDP defence spending.

UK 2.3
Swiss 0.8
New Zealand 1.1

The Empire ended a long time ago.

Russia 4.2

Strangely you don't criticise them.

Socrates · December 2014

Niqab-wearing woman turns out to be intolerant extremist shock:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-30439913

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT

FalseFlag · December 2014

Socrates said:

FalseFlag said:

Flightpath said:

Carnyx said:

Flightpath said:

Socrates said:
@antifrank

The SNP have shown that people are perfectly willing to engage in politics in the right circumstances. Our mainstream politicians have laboured under this misimpression that it's not their fault they're unpopular: it's just the public raging at globalisation etc. Well, actually, people are pretty keen on politics when they're offered a party that gives them a patriotic vision, that speaks to regular people as equals, and that doesn't just bend to the mainstream media. All three of our main parties have failed to do that, and have instead tried to appeal to a small circle in the media, and filled their operations with advertising executives and PR men. The whole collapse of British identity has happened because the entire political elite has avoided expressing a vision of that identity that appeals to the regular man on the street. As Orwell said, the left in England are people that have long disliked their own country, but what's truly embarrassing is that the Tories have bowed to that consensus. Hence the rise of UKIP.
The notion that the tories hate their own country shows what depths you have to sink to to justify your prejudice. Everything else is contorted drivel as well. I am British and my identity has not collapsed. Inevitably when all the people with chips on their shoulders run out of excuses its 'the PR men' who get it.
The SNP have managed to engage with the anti English which is one way to stir patritism that Samuel Johnson would recognise.
...
The Tories can't be very fond of their own country if they have left it in a state where we have to have foreign anti-submarine aircraft in Scottish coastal waters to do the basic job they should never have let lapse - defence.
A pretty absurd comment, given we are part of a massive multi nation defence treaty.
We have not let defense 'lapse'. We are for instance building 2 giant aircraft carriers and helping to develope an advance jet fighter to fly off them. mega billions and funding already the replacement for Trident.
What a waste of money.

% of GDP defence spending.

UK 2.3
Swiss 0.8
New Zealand 1.1

The Empire ended a long time ago.
Russia 4.2

Strangely you don't criticise them.

Not my country so not my concern?

isam · December 2014

"Nigel Farage was today urged by David Cameron to tackle alleged “inherent racism and sexism” in UKIP after a barrister’s chances of becoming an MP appeared to have been hit because she was “brown and a woman”.

Suella Fernandes, 34, from London, failed to be selected as the prospective candidate for the rural Sussex seat of Bexhill and Battle.

Local association president John Barnes told the Financial Times: “I think the double whammy of being brown and a woman probably handicaps her still.

The Conservative Party denounced Mr Barnes’s comment as “unacceptable”, while Labour MP Seema Malhotra called on Mr Farage to take action.

Mr Barnes could not be contacted for comment.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/david-cameron-suella-fernandes-not-selected-as-mp-because-she-is-brown-and-a-woman-9917919.html

Socrates · December 2014

UKIP should tell Wheeler to get stuffed. Rich people shouldn't be allowed to use their wealth and influence to demand parties bend to their will. We're not the Tories and he's not Rupert Murdoch.

old_labour · December 2014

Thanks, Harry. You certainly had your work cut out with all the council elections that are happening today.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT

From the article

One senior party member close to the dispute said: “This is all to do with Nigel's ego. He thinks he may not win in Thanet South [the seat for which he has been selected], so he is determined to bring Neil down.

He cannot bear the thought Neil might be an MP but not Nigel.” A recent opinion poll by the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft showed Ukip trailing in Thanet South by five points

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT

Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.

anotherDave · December 2014

Socrates said:
UKIP should tell Wheeler to get stuffed. Rich people shouldn't be allowed to use their wealth and influence to demand parties bend to their will. We're not the Tories and he's not Rupert Murdoch.

I very much doubt Mr Wheeler has made any demands about Mr Hamilton.

On the previous thread someone suggested the Hamiltons were the likely source of this article, I agree.

TGOHF · December 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
From the article

One senior party member close to the dispute said: “This is all to do with Nigel's ego. He thinks he may not win in Thanet South [the seat for which he has been selected], so he is determined to bring Neil down.

He cannot bear the thought Neil might be an MP but not Nigel.” A recent opinion poll by the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft showed Ukip trailing in Thanet South by five points

It's like Gordon Brown all over again.

CarlottaVance · December 2014

Fascinating analysis as ever Mr Hayfield - what an interesting bunch of seats! SNP triumphant? Lib Dem wipe out? Look forward to the results.....

Danny565 · December 2014

Dan Hodges has changed the habit of a lifetime by saying some accurate things.

Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 14h 14 hours ago
Tories give Lab a chink of light with 1930's cuts. Ed M chooses this moment to start talking up Labour cuts. Someone explain. I can't.

Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 11h 11 hours ago
Ed Miliband is literally saying in the same speech "Cuts are bad. I'll cut". "Spending's bad. I'll spend".

isam · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.

Who bit? I take it that's why the thread was deleted

foxinsoxuk · December 2014

isam said:
"Nigel Farage was today urged by David Cameron to tackle alleged “inherent racism and sexism” in UKIP after a barrister’s chances of becoming an MP appeared to have been hit because she was “brown and a woman”.

Suella Fernandes, 34, from London, failed to be selected as the prospective candidate for the rural Sussex seat of Bexhill and Battle.

Local association president John Barnes told the Financial Times: “I think the double whammy of being brown and a woman probably handicaps her still.

The Conservative Party denounced Mr Barnes’s comment as “unacceptable”, while Labour MP Seema Malhotra called on Mr Farage to take action.

Mr Barnes could not be contacted for comment.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/david-cameron-suella-fernandes-not-selected-as-mp-because-she-is-brown-and-a-woman-9917919.html

Perhaps she would have had better chances of a seat if she dated the UKIP General Secretary?

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

anotherDave said:

Socrates said:
UKIP should tell Wheeler to get stuffed. Rich people shouldn't be allowed to use their wealth and influence to demand parties bend to their will. We're not the Tories and he's not Rupert Murdoch.
I very much doubt Mr Wheeler has made any demands about Mr Hamilton.

On the previous thread someone suggested the Hamiltons were the likely source of this article, I agree.

From the article

Mr Wheeler would not say whether he intended to donate more money before the election, or whether he had threatened not to if

Mr Hamilton was not accepted as a parliamentary candidate. He told the FT: “I cannot tell you what internal conversations have gone on.”

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
From the article

One senior party member close to the dispute said: “This is all to do with Nigel's ego. He thinks he may not win in Thanet South [the seat for which he has been selected], so he is determined to bring Neil down.

He cannot bear the thought Neil might be an MP but not Nigel.” A recent opinion poll by the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft showed Ukip trailing in Thanet South by five points
It's like Gordon Brown all over again.

It is hysterical, you can read the article for free by googling the following

"Ukip at war over Neil Hamilton’s pursuit of seat"

anotherDave · December 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

anotherDave said:

Socrates said:
UKIP should tell Wheeler to get stuffed. Rich people shouldn't be allowed to use their wealth and influence to demand parties bend to their will. We're not the Tories and he's not Rupert Murdoch.
I very much doubt Mr Wheeler has made any demands about Mr Hamilton.

On the previous thread someone suggested the Hamiltons were the likely source of this article, I agree.
From the article

Mr Wheeler would not say whether he intended to donate more money before the election, or whether he had threatened not to if

Mr Hamilton was not accepted as a parliamentary candidate. He told the FT: “I cannot tell you what internal conversations have gone on.”

??
Your point being?

DavidL · December 2014

Busy night in the locals. I live in Scotland and find these by elections in STV seats incomprehensible.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

anotherDave said:

Socrates said:
UKIP should tell Wheeler to get stuffed. Rich people shouldn't be allowed to use their wealth and influence to demand parties bend to their will. We're not the Tories and he's not Rupert Murdoch.
I very much doubt Mr Wheeler has made any demands about Mr Hamilton.

On the previous thread someone suggested the Hamiltons were the likely source of this article, I agree.
From the article

Mr Wheeler would not say whether he intended to donate more money before the election, or whether he had threatened not to if

Mr Hamilton was not accepted as a parliamentary candidate. He told the FT: “I cannot tell you what internal conversations have gone on.”
??
Your point being?

The point is, Stuart Wheeler has gone on record to give a non-denial denial.

CarlottaVance · December 2014

FalseFlag said:

Socrates said:

FalseFlag said:

Flightpath said:

Carnyx said:

Flightpath said:

Socrates said:
@antifrank

The SNP have shown that people are perfectly willing to engage in politics in the right circumstances. Our mainstream politicians have laboured under this misimpression that it's not their fault they're unpopular: it's just the public raging at globalisation etc. Well, actually, people are pretty keen on politics when they're offered a party that gives them a patriotic vision, that speaks to regular people as equals, and that doesn't just bend to the mainstream media. All three of our main parties have failed to do that, and have instead tried to appeal to a small circle in the media, and filled their operations with advertising executives and PR men. The whole collapse of British identity has happened because the entire political elite has avoided expressing a vision of that identity that appeals to the regular man on the street. As Orwell said, the left in England are people that have long disliked their own country, but what's truly embarrassing is that the Tories have bowed to that consensus. Hence the rise of UKIP.
The notion that the tories hate their own country shows what depths you have to sink to to justify your prejudice. Everything else is contorted drivel as well. I am British and my identity has not collapsed. Inevitably when all the people with chips on their shoulders run out of excuses its 'the PR men' who get it.
The SNP have managed to engage with the anti English which is one way to stir patritism that Samuel Johnson would recognise.
...
The Tories can't be very fond of their own country if they have left it in a state where we have to have foreign anti-submarine aircraft in Scottish coastal waters to do the basic job they should never have let lapse - defence.
A pretty absurd comment, given we are part of a massive multi nation defence treaty.
We have not let defense 'lapse'. We are for instance building 2 giant aircraft carriers and helping to develope an advance jet fighter to fly off them. mega billions and funding already the replacement for Trident.
What a waste of money.

% of GDP defence spending.

UK 2.3
Swiss 0.8
New Zealand 1.1

The Empire ended a long time ago.
Russia 4.2

Strangely you don't criticise them.
Not my country so not my concern?

And the behaviour of an until recently decades long opponent of your country with missiles targeted at its key cities is also not your concern? But then again, they are trying to reestablish an empire, so perhaps you view their order of magnitude higher spending as justified?

Speedy · December 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:
Apologies, the earlier thread about Andy's spreadsheets has been pulled, as erm we forget today was Thursday.

The other thread will be republished tomorrow.

Anyway I will republish my tip.
Ben Carson is currently 100/1 on Ladbrokes for the GOP nomination in 2016, despite being ahead in a second state poll today (N.Carolina) and leveling with Hillary too.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_121114.pdf

Carson is rising in the polls for months now and is currently near the top in the national polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

His strength is that he can articulate even the most extreme position in a rational and calm way, also he's not an elected politician and he's black, his weakness is that he's not an elected politician and he's black.

Judge for yourselves, here's a recent TV interview of Carson on Bloomberg talking about Ferguson, the Iraq War, the Defense Secretary's resignation and Monetary Policy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-OLTJYiLKI

Also a factor for Carson's rise is Rand Paul, who has been sliding in the polls (sorry OGH) probably because he's trying too much in getting left wing votes he forgot he's in the GOP.

Richard_Tyndall · December 2014

Oh Mr Hayfield, you and I are going to have a serious falling out.

Lincoln is most certainly not flat as a pancake. Lincoln itself sits on the Lincoln Edge - as does my own very fair village of Ancaster. The edge runs the length of the county and is part of the same range of hills as the Cotswolds.

True the south and east of the county are pancake-ish in aspect but that is, after all the fringes of Cambridgeshire and so suffers from proximity to that backward county.

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.
Who bit? I take it that's why the thread was deleted

PB would be a right mess if a thread was removed every time someone made an arse of themselves.

NickPalmer · December 2014

Just came in from a day knocking up for the Toton by-election. It's the safest Tory ward and to be honest we weren't going to push for the by-election, since the whole council is up in 5 months' time and we felt it was a waste of money, as did the Tories - whoever wins will need to stand for re-election in May. But UKIP forced it to be held anyway and have fought a highly visible campaign, with a loudspeaker van, balloons and tellers at the polling stations. A big local issue is permission given by the Lab/Lib council to build on Toton's green belt - the council says its hand was forced by the Government targets. A final twist was a forgery - a Labour Facebook post was reposted it on the Toton community website over the Labour's candidate's name but with the wording changed to appear to attack himself and endorse the Tory, which is possibly illegal and certainly silly. Did it have an effect? Who knows?

My impression, for what it's worth, is that turnout will be a respectively 25% or so but the UKIP effort will flop - I only met a single Kipper voter all day, though no doubt some of the "not Labour" people were too. I'd guess the Tories will hold it but with a reduced majority.

We'll soon know, though I can't post the result myself as I have to drive back to London later tonight - work meetings tomorrow.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

We all ready to make sure our tellies aren't on BBC1 at 10.35pm....

anotherDave · December 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

anotherDave said:

Socrates said:
UKIP should tell Wheeler to get stuffed. Rich people shouldn't be allowed to use their wealth and influence to demand parties bend to their will. We're not the Tories and he's not Rupert Murdoch.
I very much doubt Mr Wheeler has made any demands about Mr Hamilton.

On the previous thread someone suggested the Hamiltons were the likely source of this article, I agree.
From the article

Mr Wheeler would not say whether he intended to donate more money before the election, or whether he had threatened not to if

Mr Hamilton was not accepted as a parliamentary candidate. He told the FT: “I cannot tell you what internal conversations have gone on.”
??
Your point being?
The point is, Stuart Wheeler has gone on record to give a non-denial denial.

In other news, the sun set in the west. Friday is expected to arrive later this week.

TGOHF · December 2014

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.
Who bit? I take it that's why the thread was deleted

Me me me me me all about me. Takes after the leader..

isam · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.
Who bit? I take it that's why the thread was deleted
PB would be a right mess if a thread was removed every time someone made an arse of themselves.

I thought the thread where Mike slated UKIP for getting the date of the locals wrong was deleted when someone pointed out he was looking at last years PPB? Or is that one still up?

Speedy · December 2014

NickPalmer said:
Just came in from a day knocking up for the Toton by-election. It's the safest Tory ward and to be honest we weren't going to push for the by-election, since the whole council is up in 5 months' time and we felt it was a waste of money, as did the Tories - whoever wins will need to stand for re-election in May. But UKIP forced it to be held anyway and have fought a highly visible campaign, with a loudspeaker van, balloons and tellers at the polling stations. A big local issue is permission given by the Lab/Lib council to build on Toton's green belt - the council says its hand was forced by the Government targets. A final twist was a forgery - a Labour Facebook post was reposted it on the Toton community website over the Labour's candidate's name but with the wording changed to appear to attack himself and endorse the Tory, which is possibly illegal and certainly silly. Did it have an effect? Who knows?

My impression, for what it's worth, is that turnout will be a respectively 25% or so but the UKIP effort will flop - I only met a single Kipper voter all day, though no doubt some of the "not Labour" people were too. I'd guess the Tories will hold it but with a reduced majority.

We'll soon know, though I can't post the result myself as I have to drive back to London later tonight - work meetings tomorrow.

OK lets make Toton a test of your canvassing skills.

EPG · December 2014

One can hardly say STV is bizarre just because it delivers outcomes that are different to those under the rules of FPTP. That's the point.

philiph · December 2014

So in Eds speech, he says High Wage economy. How is he going to get high wages introduced?

isam · December 2014

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.
Who bit? I take it that's why the thread was deleted
Me me me me me all about me. Takes after the leader..

Was QT any good last night?

foxinsoxuk · December 2014

philiph said:
So in Eds speech, he says High Wage economy. How is he going to get high wages introduced?

He will pass a law doubling everyones salary (apart from bankers of course).

Speedy · December 2014

Essentially tonight it's only the Scottish seats and Stamford North that could get interesting.

philiph · December 2014

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Harsh...... Isam had been very very very very clever too.

In the meantime let's watch UKIPs latest new politics involving big money, backroom fights and stitch ups and a worried leader reported to be harming his colleagues prospects so as not to outshine his...

Popcorn anyone?

20m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
It's war at the top of Ukip and we have some juicy details: by @kiranstacey and me http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 …
7 Retweets 3 favorites Collapse ReplyRetweetFavorite· 7 Retweets 3 favorites 22m Jim Pickard @PickardJE
exclusive: Stuart Wheeler refuses to give Ukip more cash unless they give Neil Hamilton a parliamentary candidacy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e91ed752-812a-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3LX4jlGP7 … FT
Phew - he's done it again..... shocking mis-use of " " however should see him in ConUKIPhome for at least 29 minutes.
Who bit? I take it that's why the thread was deleted
Me me me me me all about me. Takes after the leader..
Was QT any good last night?

Re post tomorrow to find out.

Speedy · December 2014

philiph said:
So in Eds speech, he says High Wage economy. How is he going to get high wages introduced?

Higher minimum wage.

philiph · December 2014

Speedy said:

philiph said:
So in Eds speech, he says High Wage economy. How is he going to get high wages introduced?
Higher minimum wage.

Hardly my definition of high wage. His 8.00 ph is only a tiny annual increase, not adequate to make a difference.

Scott_P · December 2014

Richard_Tyndall said:
Oh Mr Hayfield, you and I are going to have a serious falling out.

Lincoln is most certainly not flat as a pancake.

I have only been there once, but I can concur that the Castle and Cathedral are at the top of the very appropriately named Steep Hill

glw · December 2014

philiph said:
So in Eds speech, he says High Wage economy. How is he going to get high wages introduced?

Something, something, fairness, blah, blah. I think that's what he said.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

Whatever happened to YouGov numbers being 10pm on the dot.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4m4D7PCMAAYxDL.jpg:large

Tricky. David, got anything to say?

DavidL · December 2014

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Apologies, the earlier thread about Andy's spreadsheets has been pulled, as erm we forget today was Thursday.

The other thread will be republished tomorrow.
Anyway I will republish my tip.
Ben Carson is currently 100/1 on Ladbrokes for the GOP nomination in 2016, despite being ahead in a second state poll today (N.Carolina) and leveling with Hillary too.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_121114.pdf

Carson is rising in the polls for months now and is currently near the top in the national polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

His strength is that he can articulate even the most extreme position in a rational and calm way, also he's not an elected politician and he's black, his weakness is that he's not an elected politician and he's black.

Judge for yourselves, here's a recent TV interview of Carson on Bloomberg talking about Ferguson, the Iraq War, the Defense Secretary's resignation and Monetary Policy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-OLTJYiLKI

Also a factor for Carson's rise is Rand Paul, who has been sliding in the polls (sorry OGH) probably because he's trying too much in getting left wing votes he forgot he's in the GOP.

Well he seems more rational than that pizza lunatic they had the last time but I am struggling to think of a president who got there without other elected office since Ike. Has he done any good maritime invasions?

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

glw said:

philiph said:
So in Eds speech, he says High Wage economy. How is he going to get high wages introduced?
Something, something, fairness, blah, blah. I think that's what he said.

Everyone gets a pay rise of 100% via tax credits but their marginal rate of tax also goes up 100% so Ed gets to spend it.

Deficit sorted - Labour econ 101.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever happened to YouGov numbers being 10pm on the dot.

They've moved it to 10.30pm

foxinsoxuk · December 2014

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Oh Mr Hayfield, you and I are going to have a serious falling out.

Lincoln is most certainly not flat as a pancake.
I have only been there once, but I can concur that the Castle and Cathedral are at the top of the very appropriately named Steep Hill

Steep Hill certainly is! Lincolnshire wolds are also not very flat.

Stamford is a lovely town, should be annexed by Rutland in an Anschlaus...

Speedy · December 2014

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/543167650004996098/photo/1

Tricky. David, got anything to say?

Ask Mr.Blair, last sighted bringing peace somewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
Also, isn't Labour lucky NOT to have David Miliband as it's leader?

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever happened to YouGov numbers being 10pm on the dot.
They've moved it to 10.30pm

I have obviously not being paying enough attention. I blame it on the EU and new VAT rules (said in Farage voice).

Scott_P · December 2014

Miliband's Deficit Attention Disorder cured then...

@TimesNewsdesk: Miliband refuses to say how he would cut deficit
http://t.co/xnAZYnIX3d

ChokinVase · December 2014

The by-election thread copy is always entertaining to read. For those of us with a much milder version of politicalitis than some, it's fun to read about what's going on in local politics in random parts of the country that we may have never visited, and sometimes, barely even heard of. Thanks!

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever happened to YouGov numbers being 10pm on the dot.
They've moved it to 10.30pm
I have obviously not being paying enough attention. I blame it on the EU and new VAT rules (said in Farage voice).

I blame the immigrants for delaying the YouGov.

MarqueeMark · December 2014

Greetings peeps, been out amongst the volcanoes and White Walkers all day. Has Ed launched his successful economic case that will have him in Downing Street next May?

Speedy · December 2014

DavidL said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Apologies, the earlier thread about Andy's spreadsheets has been pulled, as erm we forget today was Thursday.

The other thread will be republished tomorrow.
Anyway I will republish my tip.
Ben Carson is currently 100/1 on Ladbrokes for the GOP nomination in 2016, despite being ahead in a second state poll today (N.Carolina) and leveling with Hillary too.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_121114.pdf

Carson is rising in the polls for months now and is currently near the top in the national polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

His strength is that he can articulate even the most extreme position in a rational and calm way, also he's not an elected politician and he's black, his weakness is that he's not an elected politician and he's black.

Judge for yourselves, here's a recent TV interview of Carson on Bloomberg talking about Ferguson, the Iraq War, the Defense Secretary's resignation and Monetary Policy:
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-OLTJYiLKI

Also a factor for Carson's rise is Rand Paul, who has been sliding in the polls (sorry OGH) probably because he's trying too much in getting left wing votes he forgot he's in the GOP.
Well he seems more rational than that pizza lunatic they had the last time but I am struggling to think of a president who got there without other elected office since Ike. Has he done any good maritime invasions?

He did a good maritime invasion of Obama:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFb6NU1giRA

FalseFlag · December 2014

CarlottaVance said:

FalseFlag said:

Socrates said:

FalseFlag said:

Flightpath said:

Carnyx said:

Flightpath said:

Socrates said:
@antifrank

The SNP have shown that people are perfectly willing to engage in politics in the right circumstances. Our mainstream politicians have laboured under this misimpression that it's not their fault they're unpopular: it's just the public raging at globalisation etc. Well, actually, people are pretty keen on politics when they're offered a party that gives them a patriotic vision, that speaks to regular people as equals, and that doesn't just bend to the mainstream media. All three of our main parties have failed to do that, and have instead tried to appeal to a small circle in the media, and filled their operations with advertising executives and PR men. The whole collapse of British identity has happened because the entire political elite has avoided expressing a vision of that identity that appeals to the regular man on the street. As Orwell said, the left in England are people that have long disliked their own country, but what's truly embarrassing is that the Tories have bowed to that consensus. Hence the rise of UKIP.
The notion that the tories hate their own country shows what depths you have to sink to to justify your prejudice. Everything else is contorted drivel as well. I am British and my identity has not collapsed. Inevitably when all the people with chips on their shoulders run out of excuses its 'the PR men' who get it.
The SNP have managed to engage with the anti English which is one way to stir patritism that Samuel Johnson would recognise.
...
The Tories can't be very fond of their own country if they have left it in a state where we have to have foreign anti-submarine aircraft in Scottish coastal waters to do the basic job they should never have let lapse - defence.
A pretty absurd comment, given we are part of a massive multi nation defence treaty.
We have not let defense 'lapse'. We are for instance building 2 giant aircraft carriers and helping to develope an advance jet fighter to fly off them. mega billions and funding already the replacement for Trident.
What a waste of money.

% of GDP defence spending.

UK 2.3
Swiss 0.8
New Zealand 1.1

The Empire ended a long time ago.
Russia 4.2

Strangely you don't criticise them.
Not my country so not my concern?
And the behaviour of an until recently decades long opponent of your country with missiles targeted at its key cities is also not your concern? But then again, they are trying to reestablish an empire, so perhaps you view their order of magnitude higher spending as justified?

The US?

Scott_P · December 2014

MarqueeMark said:
Greetings peeps, been out amongst the volcanoes and White Walkers all day. Has Ed launched his successful economic case that will have him in Downing Street next May?

Judge for yourself...

@DJack_Journo: Ed's got his choppers out in tomorrow's @BrookesTimes cartoon http://t.co/LmFojEG2gl

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

2m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
FT front page story on UKIP donor Stuart Wheeler threatening to stop funding unless Neil Hamilton gets seat pic.twitter.com/8EWDKvndfv

How does he find these scoops?

Scott_P · December 2014

@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

TGOHF · December 2014

Q. If the minimum wage goes up, does the living wage go up too ?

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

Scott_P said:
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

Tory Cuts Bad, Labour Cuts Good, Edition.

Speedy · December 2014

MarqueeMark said:
Greetings peeps, been out amongst the volcanoes and White Walkers all day. Has Ed launched his successful economic case that will have him in Downing Street next May?

In my view, no.
He probably made it worse by making the deficit more of a political priority and giving the Tories, the Greens and the SNP, more ammunition to hit him with.

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

4m steve hawkes @steve_hawkes
Ten mins to Question Time - and FT reveals Stuart Wheeler will pull all funding for UKIP unless they find Neil Hamilton a seat (Purple Len)

58s Michael Deacon ✔ @MichaelPDeacon
"A new politics"

Snowballing....

peter_from_putney · December 2014

I think it's safe to say that there's now little chance of any Tory bounce from the Chancellor's autumn statement.
On a slightly more cheery note for the Blue team, it would appear, at least so far as YouGov is concerned, that UKIP has lost just a little support over the recent past.

Monksfield · December 2014

Hilarious front page from the Mail given that there is no way on God's Green Earth that any Tory Foreign Sec would have put the kybosh on George, Dick & Don's great Rendition and Torture extravaganza. And they all know it, thinking there but for the grace of God would have been I.

Interesting set of by elections tonight. Broxtowe and Sunderland to be informative....

MarqueeMark · December 2014

Thanks Scott, Speedy. So nothing to change the assertion that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

Much as expected then.

Blofelds_Cat · December 2014

Richard_Tyndall said:
Oh Mr Hayfield, you and I are going to have a serious falling out.

Lincoln is most certainly not flat as a pancake. Lincoln itself sits on the Lincoln Edge - as does my own very fair village of Ancaster. The edge runs the length of the county and is part of the same range of hills as the Cotswolds.

True the south and east of the county are pancake-ish in aspect but that is, after all the fringes of Cambridgeshire and so suffers from proximity to that backward county.

Richard - so true - I live in the very north-western part of the Backward County. I formed a golf society called the "Borders of Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire Society" - acronym worked for me.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:
2m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
FT front page story on UKIP donor Stuart Wheeler threatening to stop funding unless Neil Hamilton gets seat pic.twitter.com/8EWDKvndfv

How does he find these scoops?

A PBer with a great sense when it comes to news, emails Mike with the most interesting stories.

This PBer occasionally puts his talents as guest editor.

HYUFD · December 2014

As QT begins, get ready for Brand and Farage bingo
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/543145469942452224/photo/1

old_labour · December 2014

I hate Russell Brand's voice.

Peter_the_Punter · December 2014

The Week isn't what it used to be but Nigel Horne has done a good job of bottoming out the Bolter/Bird nonsense:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/61754/sex-leaks-and-lies-basildon-brush-off-for-natasha-and-neil#.VInc5eQGr2A.gmail

You'd think that might be the end of it, but wait. Do I hear Mike Smithson's footfall below? Does he have news of Mr Wheeler's intervention? Does a seat have to be found for Hamilton, come what may?

The plot thickens....or does it?

peter_from_putney · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:
2m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
FT front page story on UKIP donor Stuart Wheeler threatening to stop funding unless Neil Hamilton gets seat pic.twitter.com/8EWDKvndfv

How does he find these scoops?

By assiduously checking the newspapers' front pages (possibly via Sky News)?

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2014

Russell has spoken.

Time for bed.

Scott_P · December 2014

@politicshome: Friday's Guardian front page - Spy agencies asked US to hide British links in torture report http://t.co/hUNhFE8jnH

TheScreamingEagles · December 2014

This is why I love kippers on Twitter.

In reply to Mike's tweet about the FT front page

@Hunter1872: @M0djadji @MSmithsonPB Sounds like you're reading from the New Labour/UAF crib sheet. LibLabCon are terrified of UKIP, and voters know it.

peter_from_putney · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:
4m steve hawkes @steve_hawkes
Ten mins to Question Time - and FT reveals Stuart Wheeler will pull all funding for UKIP unless they find Neil Hamilton a seat (Purple Len)

58s Michael Deacon ✔ @MichaelPDeacon
"A new politics"

Snowballing....

Will Farage & Co. cave in, that is the question?

tory_up_north · December 2014

Speedy on Ben Carson. I got on at over 120 on Betfair for Republican nomination. Don't think he'll make it all the way, but odds will shorten further.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

old_labour said:
I hate Russell Brand's voice.

If only he had spent more time attending classes at the private school we paid for him to attend rather than on the drugs, he at least might not sound like such a ignorant tw@t.

Bobajob_ · December 2014

Decentish poll for Labour.
In the words of Peter from Putney, a couple more points for Labour in fairly short order could be something.

Not that it will happen - just bouncing around the mean.

isam · December 2014

FrancisUrquhart said:

old_labour said:
I hate Russell Brand's voice.
If only he had spent more time attending classes at the private school we paid for him to attend rather than on the drugs, he at least might not sound like such a ignorant tw@t.

Did he go to private school? What do you mean "we paid for"?

FrancisUrquhart · December 2014

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

old_labour said:
I hate Russell Brand's voice.
If only he had spent more time attending classes at the private school we paid for him to attend rather than on the drugs, he at least might not sound like such a ignorant tw@t.
Did he go to private school? What do you mean "we paid for"?

We, the tax payer, paid for him to attend Italia Conti Academy of Theatre Arts (costs £4k+ a term these days), but he got kicked out for lack of attendance and drug abuse. Something to remember when he attacks the like of Robert Webb for their educational achievements.

TGOHF · December 2014

peter_from_putney said:
I think it's safe to say that there's now little chance of any Tory bounce from the Chancellor's autumn statement.
On a slightly more cheery note for the Blue team, it would appear, at least so far as YouGov is concerned, that UKIP has lost just a little support over the recent past.

Peak Kipper ? Yeah.

@IanAustinMP: Brilliant. @marycreagh_mp puts Farage in place. He's the non career politician who stood for Parliament 5 times

isam · December 2014

old_labour said:
I hate Russell Brand's voice.

...and it's put on

Scott_P · December 2014

@sammacrory: Farage praises the high voter turnout in Australia... which has a system of compulsory voting #bbcqt

MarkSenior · December 2014

Not mentioned by Harry in his by election round up are that the 2 Aylesbury by elections are in wards part of larger CC divisions which were both won by UKIP in 2013 . The UKIP candidate in Sourhcourt is in fact the UKIP County councillor for the larger Aylesbury South West division

Bobajob_ · December 2014

Scott_P said:
@sammacrory: Farage praises the high voter turnout in Australia... which has a system of compulsory voting #bbcqt

Did he praise the turnout? I didn't hear that

isam · December 2014

Peter_the_Punter said:
The Week isn't what it used to be but Nigel Horne has done a good job of bottoming out the Bolter/Bird nonsense:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/61754/sex-leaks-and-lies-basildon-brush-off-for-natasha-and-neil#.VInc5eQGr2A.gmail

You'd think that might be the end of it, but wait. Do I hear Mike Smithson's footfall below? Does he have news of Mr Wheeler's intervention? Does a seat have to be found for Hamilton, come what may?

The plot thickens....or does it?

"After all that, Ukip has chosen Kerry Smith to stand for South Basildon and East Thurrock, subject to Ukip HQ’s approval.

20/1 lovely...

He’ll have a hard time being as colourful a contender as Bolter and Hamilton – but he does have a very good chance of becoming an MP on 7 May 2015 if Ukip can steer clear of further roadblocks"

Danny565 · December 2014

Not going to lie, Farage hit the nail on the head before. One of the main reasons about how petty and vitriolic politics has become is, ironically, because of the fact their policies are so similar -- because they agree on everything (such as the deficit), they literally have nothing else to say apart from kneejerk tribalism.

Speedy · December 2014

HYUFD said:
As QT begins, get ready for Brand and Farage bingo
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/543145469942452224/photo/1

BINGO!, immigration.

nigel4england · December 2014

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Russell has spoken.

Time for bed.

Mary Creagh slaughters Brand, great stuff

Bobajob_ · December 2014

Assumed Cantebury audience would be much rightie than this

Danny565 · December 2014

Well, QT is hotting up...

maaarsh · December 2014

This back lash is hilarious

HYUFD · December 2014

QT Now turning into panto, but Brand being confronted on immigration and its impact while also hitting Farage on bankers' bonuses

FalseFlag · December 2014

Loony left mask slipping.

Speedy · December 2014

QT is becoming like the Jerry Springer Show.
I love it.

TGOHF · December 2014

Poundshop Enoch Powell. Lolz.

Bobajob_ · December 2014

Lol classic QT

bigjohnowls · December 2014

Extraordinary QT.

isam · December 2014

This is great

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