Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

13»

Comments

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Mark Senior will be happy.
    Twitter
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m 1 minute ago
    Liberal Democrats HOLD Gatehouse (Aylesbury Vale).

    Britain Elects @britainelects · now 39 seconds ago
    Liberal Democrats GAIN Southcourt (Aylesbury Vale) from Labour.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dems have won BOTH the Aylesbury seats
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,748

    There are some people whose love of market forces does not extend to me being paid £1500 to fill a Saturday rota gap!

    But working as a Locum is pretty grotty fairly quickly.
    Agency nursing shifts tripled since 2010 doubled since 2012 i understand.

    Is the pattern replicated in Leicester?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,426
    Flightpath Though Farage also said UKIP was open to looking at more health insurance schemes
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2014

    Feather beds are bad.

    Some patients have allergies.

    You think staff dont spend all day every day trying to prioritise patient care.

    Fair enough you are clearly best placed to know
    I don't think they all prioritise patient care. I know that from discussion with senior medical staff at some leading hospitals.

    And how would you know now, having bottled it at the mere sight of Lansley?
  • Why do you care?
    Because he pays for it?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Lib Dems have won BOTH the Aylesbury seats

    You won't win the Westminster seat though.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    It appears that the Conservative candidate in the Argyll/Bute by election lives 50 miles outside the ward . Amazing that they could no get anyone more local .
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Agency nursing shifts tripled since 2010 doubled since 2012 i understand.

    Is the pattern replicated in Leicester?
    Pretty much. The reasons are complex, including the failure of the UK to have enough nursing training places, and the fact that some rotas are very inflexible, so nurses prefer bank/agency so that they can dictate the hours and work patterns.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,748

    Because he pays for it?
    I thought you paid for it all Nigel.

    Does Geoff even pay UK taxes?
  • Lib Dems have won BOTH the Aylesbury seats

    and Tories won in Toton. Seems HS2 is not as toxic politically as some would have you believe.
  • Best edition of QT in many years!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GeoffM said:

    It's the *almost* in your comment that worries me!
    I challenge you to publicly admit to one significant viewpoint that you and the nutter share.
    Haha.,.. well there's not much!

    Actually I can think of one.. people getting high and mighty over the way animals are killed for halal meat . In my book (and Russell Brand's) if you really cared you wouldn't eat meat
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Care matters more than money grabbing employees.

    I'm guessing that you've forgotten that the primary role of the NHS is to look after patients, not feather bed the staff.

    Knocking MPs pay is an easy option for a cheer. If you take time to read the comments in quite a lot of places news articles etc - you note that apologists for UKIP howl about closing down the NHS and us all going private with private insurance. So did Farage at one time until he thought he might win in Doncaster South. Hard nosed kipppers hate the NHS. Neokippers or proto-neokippers of a socialist persuasion however demand a nationalised NHS with absolutely no private involvement.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    You won't win the Westminster seat though.
    Most of the LD strength in the seat is in the town of Aylesbury itself. I think the rural part of the seat is Con vs UKIP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,748

    I don't think they all prioritise patient care. I know that from discussion with senior medical staff at some leading hospitals.

    And how would you know now, having bottled it at the mere sight of Lansley?
    As I say i bow to your senior knowledge your discussion clearly has more merit than 32 years prioritising the patient experince .

    Sounds like an Ed is Crap anecdote to me.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    You won't win the Westminster seat though.
    I did not say we would unlike UKIP who say they " won " the seat at the 2013 CC elections
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Pretty much. The reasons are complex, including the failure of the UK to have enough nursing training places, and the fact that some rotas are very inflexible, so nurses prefer bank/agency so that they can dictate the hours and work patterns.
    Our local DGH has a lot of Spanish nurses. They work very well I'm told. They are not agency nurses.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,748

    Our local DGH has a lot of Spanish nurses. They work very well I'm told. They are not agency nurses.
    I am willing to bet your DGH spends at least double on Agency what it did in 2010.
    Grab its accounts.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Carmarthenshire Plaid gain from Ind

    Plaid 598 Ind 181 Lib Dem 96

    Stamford result

    UKIP 400 Lab 268 Con 261 Linc Ind 199 Lib Dem 142
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,748
    I am off goodnight all.

    Oh nearly forgot.

    Tonights YG EICIPM (UKPR)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    As I say i bow to your senior knowledge your discussion clearly has more merit than 32 years prioritising the patient experince .

    Sounds like an Ed is Crap anecdote to me.
    'Prioritising the patient experience'

    Says it all.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    You have it the wrong way round. The UK is a big importer of Doctors with 40% being foreign trained, so no cost to the UK taxpayer.

    As tim would point out so often: immigrants are much more likely to have degrees than UK natives.

    OK, firstly read my post carefully before replying. I was ambiguous about what constituted abroad and did not mention the UK at all.

    Secondly, simply repeating the immigrant figure without subtracting something for the emigrating doctors is simply dishonest.

    Thirdly, you have not supplied any data about the training regimes in the countries those doctors come from or, for that matter, this country.

    Fourthly, you haven't given the slightest consideration to the effect on the emigrants' home countries.

    Apart from that, great post.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,748

    'Prioritising the patient experience'

    Says it all.
    Thats my crap punctuation.

    32 years experience

    prioritising the patient. Trumped by your discussion with man in pub

    is what i meant
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I am off goodnight all.

    Oh nearly forgot.

    Tonights YG EICIPM (UKPR)

    As usual.
    Goodnight.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    HYUFD said:

    Flightpath Though Farage also said UKIP was open to looking at more health insurance schemes

    For who? Him? He is begining to sound like Tony Blair. How many sides does Nigels triangle have?
    Farage has moved for having an NHS like the French to having an NHS to the left of Gordon Brown. He has done it by totally misrepresenting private involvement in the NHS on the basis of attracting socialists and excluding Douglas Carswell.

    PS
    LD lady on This Week talking total sense!!!

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2014

    Thats my crap punctuation.

    32 years experience

    prioritising the patient. Trumped by your discussion with man in pub

    is what i meant
    Senior nursing staff - still working, not bottling.

    Actively caring for patients, not paper shufflers.
  • I hate Russell Brand's voice.

    Surely not as bad as Rachel Reeves? :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ninoinoz said:

    OK, firstly read my post carefully before replying. I was ambiguous about what constituted abroad and did not mention the UK at all.

    Secondly, simply repeating the immigrant figure without subtracting something for the emigrating doctors is simply dishonest.

    Thirdly, you have not supplied any data about the training regimes in the countries those doctors come from or, for that matter, this country.

    Fourthly, you haven't given the slightest consideration to the effect on the emigrants' home countries.

    Apart from that, great post.
    Haha there are so many great hidden points in those two posts!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's almost exactly 30 years since Portillo entered the Commons at the Enfield Southgate by-election:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enfield_Southgate_by-election,_1984
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014

    Surely not as bad as Rachel Reeves? :)
    Brummie is far better than Estuary. Rather Adrian Childs than Reeves or Brand.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    OK, firstly read my post carefully before replying. I was ambiguous about what constituted abroad and did not mention the UK at all.

    Secondly, simply repeating the immigrant figure without subtracting something for the emigrating doctors is simply dishonest.

    Thirdly, you have not supplied any data about the training regimes in the countries those doctors come from or, for that matter, this country.

    Fourthly, you haven't given the slightest consideration to the effect on the emigrants' home countries.

    Apart from that, great post.

    Most migrant Doctors to the UK are trained in places with at least some government subsidy, and often in places where no fees are paid.

    The UK (like most developed countries) is a net importer of Doctors, and also of Nurses.

    The effect on the country that they emigrate from is complex. Clearly there is a brain drain element, but there is also a large amount of overseas remittances going to these countries, both in terms of salary and also lump sums on retirement. For countries like Bangladesh and the Phillipines remitances are a very large source of Foreign exchange. There is also a large cohort that return to their native land with postgraduate experience essential to develop services back home.

    Some countries also train far too many Doctors (Greece being an example in Europe).

    In terms of the cost of training, it is nessecary to separate the costs of Undergraduate and of postgraduate training. Undergraduates cost money to train, but postgraduate trainees are the essential staff that run services, particularly emergency services. For much of my youth I spent 90+ hours on duty with overtime paid at 38% of the in hours rate (note: not 138%!).

    I personally would be happy with a postgraduate bond that ties the UK doctor to several years NHS duties. Better still would be to write off tuition fees after 10 years NHS service. Some countriies do this already (Greece requires 18 months as a rural GP for example).


  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    I am willing to bet your DGH spends at least double on Agency what it did in 2010.
    Grab its accounts.
    As is being said, agency nurses etc comes from many reasons. I know that were I live the costs of living there is a big problem in recruiting staff. Hence the Spanish nurses.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Our local DGH has a lot of Spanish nurses. They work very well I'm told. They are not agency nurses.
    We recently recruited a lot of EU nurses in Leicester:

    http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/European-nurses-arrive-improve-patient-care/story-20579490-detail/story.html

    One of many benefits of labour mobility in the EU. Lovely to work with!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Brummie is far better than Estuary. Rather Adrian Childs than Reeves or Brand.
    Careful sunshine!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Conservatives have held the New Forest seat
  • isam said:

    Careful sunshine!
    yes, be careful. west bromwich is in the black country, not birmingham.

    thus chiles is a yam-yam not a brummie
    :)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Speedy

    'Nick Palmer's canvassing results weren't great:'

    Con + 5% Lab - 3.5%

    Reality versus Anecdote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    Have Cockneys always pronounced three as "free" or is that a new Estuary English thing?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Comparison of petrol prices since 1996 across several countries including UK and US:

    http://www.eia.gov/countries/prices/gasolinewithtax.cfm
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,304
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Have Cockneys always pronounced three as "free" or is that a new Estuary English thing?

    Brummies always have a kipper tie instead of coffee?
  • I'm writing this message in Coventry BTW :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited December 2014
    About as convincing as world's fattest man promising to give up Pringles... QUENTIN LETTS on Miliband's credibility deficit.

    It would be funny, is not a) true and b) more likely than not that the two Ed will be in control this time next year and imposing their "nice" cuts.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I'm writing this message in Coventry BTW :)

    You better not describe Coventry people as Brummies if you want to get out of there alive.
  • AndyJS said:

    You better not describe Coventry people as Brummies if you want to get out of there alive.
    Which is why I asked the Kipper Tie question :)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Ahh, that might explain the result.

    It appears that the Conservative candidate in the Argyll/Bute by election lives 50 miles outside the ward . Amazing that they could no get anyone more local .

    It appears that the Conservative candidate in the Argyll/Bute by election lives 50 miles outside the ward . Amazing that they could no get anyone more local .

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited December 2014
    @Foxinsoxuk A few years back, I and a couple of my former student nurse friends all decided to look into returning to nursing and doing the refresher course with a view to working as bank staff nurses as we all still had young families. We all lived rurally outside Aberdeen, and one of my friends hubby was a policeman who worked set shifts. The refresher course/bank system had become so inflexible that it was no longer practical for any of us to undertake it at the time. We are all now back at work, but none of us are working as nurses in the NHS. Now that is three staff nurses that could have been back in the NHS system part-time....

    The biggest mistake ever made within the NHS in the last couple of decades was to disband Nursing colleges which had successfully ran an excellent three year module staff nurse training course, and then turn this qualification into a degree obtained at University instead. And then along came student fees.... This was one bit of political meddling by both the last Conservative Government, and then the subsequent Labour Government that succeeded it that really screwed up the trained nursing provision in the NHS in the longer term!!

    And it was about trying to save a quick buck in the short term, under the old module system, I spent most of my training both as a junior and senior student working full time and learning my craft first hand on the wards for a small wage and I was provided with heavily subsidised accommodation in the Nursing Homes provided by various Nursing Colleges. But the downside of switching the course to a Uni degree, and then throwing in tuition fees and no living expenses was always going to depress recruitment for a job that is never going to be a big earner for most nurses. And on top of that, you also just deprived the NHS of a large quantity of 'in-training' staff, both junior and senior that had formally been a vital part of every staff rota sheet through out the UK!

    I was a general dogs body as a junior nurse student on my first medical ward, by the end of my training as a senior student nurse I was in charge of receiving medical ward on night duty reporting to a night Sister covering several wards. The majority of my training was spent hands on gaining both experience and training on the wards. That is why back then both American and Australian companies were always over here trying to recruit British Nurses to fill the shortages a similar degree nursing course with tuition fees had caused in their countries! Talk about watching the UK take a great training system that worked, but cost more initially in the short, but then provided a far better longer term investment and then just trash it despite all the evidence from other countries.... Still makes me mad even today!!


  • Brummies always have a kipper tie instead of coffee?
    you're thinking of new zealand?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Agreed!

    PS
    LD lady on This Week talking total sense!!!

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I thought you paid for it all Nigel.

    Does Geoff even pay UK taxes?
    Yes! I have a house in the UK in what is likely to be a Conservative/UKIP marginal!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @ Fitalass

    I second your analysis.

    Nursing always has been and always will be a largely practical profession, and I think that the academisation of training (as well as the things you mention) has put up a bar to entry for many.

    I would say the same about medical recruitment too. There are many non academic skills that are needed to be a good Doctor. Many medical schools require grades of A*AA for entry and 7A* at GCSE. An A at Chemistry is essential but I would be more flexible with other qualifications. Many of our excellent graduate entry students would have been barred by their A levels.

    In part Medical Schools are controlled by research orientated academics, but also setting a high academic bar is an effective way of limiting the number of applications to be reviewed by the entry panel.

    The fact that drop out rates are now very high, both before and after qualification shows we are doing something wrong.
  • Lib Dems have won BOTH the Aylesbury seats

    UKIP were second to Lib Dems in both seats and well ahead of Cons and Labour. The Lib Dems have worked hard for the local people in Aylesbury and the electorate have responded - although the turnout was very low, so good party organisation will have played a part.
This discussion has been closed.