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How the Greens have changed – politicalbetting.com
How the Greens have changed – politicalbetting.com
In 2019, one in ten Green voters was from the most progressive/left segment of voters; now that’s one in four. Big difference in policy preferences, priorities and pressure on the leadership, as we’ve seen in e.g reaction to Denyer’s Biden statement.
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I wonder if similarly some Liberal Democrats will miss being in a fringe party with no power or money and join the Conservatives as they drop into insignificance in council elections and at the next General Election.
Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.
It isn't any easier for Labour to recover these voters than for the Tories to pick up Reform voters.
Additionally note that the 2019 Green vote was distorted by an electoral pact with Lib Dems over Brexit so a lot of that 2019 vote was LD voters rather than true Greens (and vice versa of course).
And there is a slight chance the Conservatives pick a leader who goes for a "Teal" strategy, aiming to pick up older Greens, Lib Dems and Trad Tories (basically the RSPB member cohort) with a patchwork and inconsistent policy package of NIMBYism, protection of landscape, opposition to onshore turbines (but pro offshore), anti pollution and big on EVs etc
Not only did it lead to a rise in carbon emissions, but also left the continent’s largest economy totally dependent on an adversary, with the inevitable gas price spike once that adversary became a little too, well, adversary.
Sheffield is slightly to the south of Whalley
In any normal country they would have zero representation in any governing body, ie they are a bunch of dangerous Fcukwits.
Mr. 1983, that does suggest Germany has the same earthquake/tsunami risk as Japan, which is not necessarily the case.
I cannot see Alba getting much more than the 1.7% they received in 2021 so the Greens might do very well with those supporters.
Environmentalists, my arse. Shame.
The Scottish Greens gained considerably from the second vote for an alternative independence party but having destroyed the government of Yousaf (admittedly because of his own stupidity) I would not think that they would get the same again.
The LDs are also no longer an option for hard leftwingers as they were under Charles Kennedy after having been in a coalition government with the Tories
Did they not have blockquotes in ancient Rome?
And it has not been invaded by Russia recently
https://minimusthemouse.blogspot.com/2020/04/virtual-vindolanda-tablet.html?m=1
https://ejfoundation.org/resources/downloads/EJF-German-Coal-Usage-Briefing-June-2023.pdf
And that lignite was greener than LNG imports. Though not *piped* gas.
The stats are as trustworthy as their diesel emissions testing
TSE is absolutely right about the fact a Lab decline will not automatically help the Cons. But then in the collapse of the Cons most didn't auto go to Lab. Those sorts of assumptions are now very outdated.
In Scotland the voters decided it should remain part of the UK.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4778644/#Comment_4778644
Shutting the existing ones down *earlier than might have been managed* was suboptimal.
But keeping them running would have meant granting life extensions to a number. And to keep nuclear power gong would have required a commitment to and starting building new ones
No exhaust pipe for a testing probe to be placed in, to check the emissions….
We still have to see how far Slab can tolerate being subordinated to Starmerism, too. Probably quite far, but can it split? Probably not, but I am not clear on the mechanics and specifically what happens to list seats - precedent has been that people in a list seat who shift parties or go independent haven't been ejected, but IIRC that was perhaps because there was little point in the circumstances of the time for the deprived party to raise a fuss (near election, or much the same politically).
According to this report (Jan 23) hard coal/lignite accounts for 35% of German power production, more than the entire renewables industry
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/coal-germany
James: I cannot place your accent, where are you from?
Me: I am a Northerner
James: Nah, you're not from Aberdeen
Me: No, I'm originally from Sheffield
James: Oh so you're a Midlander because Yorkshire is in the middle of Britain
Objecting to wind farms or pylons etc does worse than nothing for the environment, it makes climate change and the environment worse.
- why rent controls don’t work, and
- how nuclear power is good for the environment?
I am asking this with an open mind.
An election for a representative body is on a much broader range of topics than a single issue
Each year the real value of that rental income goes down
Consequently no one will invest in expanding / improving the housing stock so it declines in aggregate quality.
Furthermore when owners can, they take houses out of the stock for alternative uses reducing the pool of available housing
Additionally it reduces social mobility because moving house can trigger a rent review - this has all sorts of economic impacts
Edit: I'm on a phone so a bit tricky to post links, but easy to see on e.g. Wikipedia.
It’s a fairly basic constitutional principle.
Additionally the UK is a partnership - it’s not reasonable for one party to be able to perpetually destabilise the arrangement. A periodic vote is fair (to quote Alex Salmond “once in a generation”) but more frequent than that is an imposition on your partners
I spoke to someone involved in a fairly high profile landscape-scale habitat restoration project.
They were very worried about the new governments attitude with regard to wind farms and were extremely worried about plans for a VERY large wind "farm" in their local area.
Wind farms are not an unalloyed good if they are built on peat or upland areas with significant habitat interest.
Indeed - they can actually contribute to climate change.
We are just getting to a phase where peat moorlands - such as in the Pennines - are being recovered for nature after decades / centuries of decline due to industrialisation. This involves stopping the degredation of the soils (which emits vast quantities of CO2) and fast run-off of rain (which leads to flooding in places like Calderdale).
Driving large numbers of tracks through this landscape and dumping massive concrete bases are not what is needed for peat recovery or hydrology.
We do not need to go from one disaster to another.
What is wrong with Dogger Bank?
PS A number of people expressed concern about the new government and how "green" they appeared to be. None of them were obviously Tories - it was more a shrug of "I thought we might get something better but it appears not".
"We’ve seen something very similar play out with the German Greens since entering power.
After losing progressive young voters over support for Ukraine, and moderate voters over botched heat pump policy, they’re now polling at their lowest level in 7 years, well behind the AfD."
At the last federal election in 2021 Germans were not in power, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine hadn't started. Greens got 14.7%. They are now polling around 12%, so they have lost about a fifth of their support. Could this be because of heat pumps, or is it more likely that it is because they are part of an extremely unpopular coalition?
Let's check the other governing parties:
SPD 2021 vote 25.7% current polling about 15% so they have lost over 2 fifths.
FDP 2021 vote 11.4% current polling about 5% so they have lost more than half.
Yes, the AfD are ahead of the Greens in polling. This is more due to an increase in AfD support than loss in Green support. AfD 2021 vote 10.4% current polling about 17%. The AfD are also now ahead of the SPD and FDP, so the remark about the AfD being ahead of the Greens seems a bit irrelevant.
Also I don't think many Germans have the idea that the Greens a 'hard left' party. For example, the Greens have been in coalition with the CDU in the state government of Baden-Württemberg since 2016.
Rent controls are a distortion to the market, and encourage bad behaviours from both landlords and tenants. Properties subject to rent control are usually poorly looked after on both sides, and landlords always want the tenant to leave because they get to refurb and rent at a higher rate. Tenants are often stuck in place, unable to move because they’d have to pay market rate elsewhere, affecting the mobility of labour and the makeup of families. Rents on new contracts need to take into account that they’re not going to be allowed to rise over time, so are more expensive than would be the case in a free market.
Nuclear power is good for the environment because it mostly replaces power generation from the combustion of fossil fuels, with their associated carbon emissions. Nuclear plants don’t emit CO2 in operation, and can generate a lot of power for their physical size when compared to wind and solar farms.
I think this is the most powerful argument that the Conservatives could use to entice Liberal Democrats to vote Conservative....
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1822451176240996422
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1822438670005088294
Aaaaargggghhhh ... a ginormous dose of Stretch The Viable Conclusions From The Data Guy, John Burn-Murdoch. I'll come back to that
On a more important point, I can't help feeling that William Henson, Youtube Table Manners Guy, is an ex-habitue of PB.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdyyin_9izI
Test question: Is it acceptable to stir the tea in your teacup clockwise, or anticlockwise?
The building of pipelines, so that he could deliver gas to Western Europe separately, was quite clearly designed so that he could create leverage between Eastern and Western Europe by threatening gas supplies to one or other (or both).
Still, if its winding him up its not time wasted.
How the Fcuk can 59 have a majority out of 650 you halfwitted cretin. It is far far far from a partnership , master slave relationship.