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Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

I wonder if she'd have found it easier to squeeze the Labour vote?

Although, she would - of course - have lose more votes to UKIP.

Party leaders tend to get a boost where they stand.

The Tory candidate is a guy who made a principled and honourable decision to defect from UKIP to The Tories, in fact he's an ex Kipper leader.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

In 2010 Farage finished third in a two horse race, beaten into second place by a Federalist who set up the Pro Euro Tory party.

Farage is a crap campaigner.

Punters beware.

UKIP's support is 5 times higher than in 2010.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

In 2010 Farage finished third in a two horse race, beaten into second place by a Federalist who set up the Pro Euro Tory party.

Farage is a crap campaigner.

Punters beware.

UKIP's support is 5 times higher than in 2010.

But the crap campaigner point still stands.

Look at his attendance in Thanet South in recent months.

He doesn't want to do the hard work.

It is possible whoever wins in Thanet South will gets around 32% of the vote, in that scenario every vote counts, and every time he fails to canvass, he's not picking up votes.

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory candidate is a guy who made a principled and honourable decision to defect from UKIP to The Tories, in fact he's an ex Kipper leader.

So, in what way is he not a pig-dog?

He didn't time his defection to cause maximum damage to his former party.

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory candidate is a guy who made a principled and honourable decision to defect from UKIP to The Tories, in fact he's an ex Kipper leader.

So, in what way is he not a pig-dog?

He didn't time his defection to cause maximum damage to his former party.

Fair enough.

Sobering to think Labour were a decent second in this seat in 2010.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

In 2010 Farage finished third in a two horse race, beaten into second place by a Federalist who set up the Pro Euro Tory party.

Farage is a crap campaigner.

Punters beware.

He is on QT tonight with 3 women and Russell Brand.

Brave...

I shall be supporting Mr Farage against Mr Brand.

Sean_F said:

Party leaders tend to get a boost where they stand

Didn't help Robinson in Belfast East in 2010.

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

In 2010 Farage finished third in a two horse race, beaten into second place by a Federalist who set up the Pro Euro Tory party.

Farage is a crap campaigner.

Punters beware.

He is on QT tonight with 3 women and Russell Brand.

Brave...

I shall be supporting Mr Farage against Mr Brand.

On the scifi theme, Farage v Brand is Alien vs Predator.

Whoever wins, we lose.

Farage is 7/4 with bwin.. I am on.

@Quincel provided the tip

The latest Ashcroft poll showed UKIP improving their score on all counts in the raw data compared to the previous poll, but with a final score of 4-5% less thanks to DNV2010 allocations.

Maybe that allocation is right, but I think that's why the price hasn't really dropped too much.. after Rochester and Clacton, the reliance on 2010s DNVs staying at home has emptied too many wallets (I think the bwin bet is just clueless odds compiling, they love a ricket)

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Surely this is a case of most intelligent people recognising the inescapable truth that in this country we are living way, way beyond our means on borrowed money and that this simply cannot continue indefinitely.
Government has to have the courage to grasp the nettle. To date, all this Government has done is to poke it with a stick. Still at least that's better than the previous lot who feed the nettle with copious quantities of fertilizer.

Indigo said:

anotherDave said:

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

So if you equate "discrete" with "not ostentatious" then the public agree with Farage, surely some mistake ;-)

Not quite. Curiously another Dave has missed out some of the other findings from this poll

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

anotherDave said:

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

So if you equate "discrete" with "not ostentatious" then the public agree with Farage, surely some mistake ;-)

Not quite. Curiously another Dave has missed out some of the other findings from this poll

Don't keep us in suspense.

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

It is not of course proposed to cut spending to 1930 levels. Its possible that spending might be cut to to the %age of GDP last seen in 1930. Not the same thing.
What might be true is that the govt are aiming for spending 6 times the level of the 1930's.
And its all no doubt far too nuanced for a poll to remind people that for most of the period in question, capital spending by government, on roads, hospitals and schools and other infrastructure was a lot higher than it is now, gross investment reaching 10% or more of GDP at times in the 1960s and 1970s. Currently it is just over 3.5%.
In a pre-privatization era, the nationalised industries swelled public sector investment.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Women should be allowed to Breast feed in public places like restaurants and cafes.

Agree 67%

Disagree 18%

From the same comres poll

? As I understand it Claridges wanted the lady to use a napkin to cover her chest, they didn't beat her with a broom.

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

As the elite fails to recognise again and again, on the vast majority of issues, UKIP are at, or near, the centre of public opinion, while what the political class calls the "centre" is way out on left field.

I'm sorry: no-one sensible disagrees with that contention.

The real question is: has anyone seen anyone breastfeeding in public in a "non-discreet" manner?

I have not. Can you genuinely recall a single occasion were you've seen a woman breastfeed in a "non-discreet" manner?

UKIP is on the side of the public by making a ridiculous contention: that there are millions of women ostentatiously breastfeeding in public.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Laura Sandys would have thrashed Farage next year though.

As a Europhile she would have been trounced.

In 2010 Farage finished third in a two horse race, beaten into second place by a Federalist who set up the Pro Euro Tory party.

Farage is a crap campaigner.

Punters beware.

He is on QT tonight with 3 women and Russell Brand.

Brave...

Russell Effing Brand!?! There was a time when strange looking badly dressed men with unbrushed hair shouting obscenities and muttering incoherently in public were pitied, maybe given some money for a cup of tea and then ignored.

If only......

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

As the elite fails to recognise again and again, on the vast majority of issues, UKIP are at, or near, the centre of public opinion, while what the political class calls the "centre" is way out on left field.

I'm sorry: no-one sensible disagrees with that contention.

The real question is: has anyone seen anyone breastfeeding in public in a "non-discreet" manner?

I have not. Can you genuinely recall a single occasion were you've seen a woman breastfeed in a "non-discreet" manner?

UKIP is on the side of the public by making a ridiculous contention: that there are millions of women ostentatiously breastfeeding in public.

The women who organised a mass breastfeed outside Claridges were presumably being ostentatious. There wouldn't be any point otherwise.

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

As the elite fails to recognise again and again, on the vast majority of issues, UKIP are at, or near, the centre of public opinion, while what the political class calls the "centre" is way out on left field.

I'm sorry: no-one sensible disagrees with that contention.

The real question is: has anyone seen anyone breastfeeding in public in a "non-discreet" manner?

I have not. Can you genuinely recall a single occasion were you've seen a woman breastfeed in a "non-discreet" manner?

In the case of Claridges, the lady posed for a photograph, and tweeted it.

Artist said:

Note the previous Thanet South poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft in July had UKIP ahead,so it was surprising to see Farage behind by 5 in this one. I'm sure he'll start campaigning in the constituency after Christmas.

Hello Mr Artist. If Farage wins by one vote then the punters win and the odds are right.

peter_from_putney said:

Surely this is a case of most intelligent people recognising the inescapable truth that in this country we are living way, way beyond our means on borrowed money and that this simply cannot continue indefinitely.
Government has to have the courage to grasp the nettle. To date, all this Government has done is to poke it with a stick. Still at least that's better than the previous lot who feed the nettle with copious quantities of fertilizer.

Perhaps you wouldn't consider me "intelligent" but I would be in the 26% camp. Reducing the deficit is important, no question, but the key is HOW we do it.

Simply cutting spending (and there's a vindictive undercurrent about aspects of this which is far from pleasant) and only then in a few areas (excluding the NHS, education and defence seems foolish) only looks at half the problem.

Conservatives only seem to want to talk about the spending but it's also about getting money in via tax receipts, asset sales and the like. The public finances truly went over the cliff when the income dried up in 2007-08. The collapse in income tax, corporation tax and VAT receipts threw the splurge in spending into sharp relief.

The priority must be to get money in as much as it is to stop spending. Indeed, the more money Government receives, the more it can allocate to debt finance. The problem is even though the Coalition raised VAT, there's next to no mention of raising taxes but this is unavoidable.

Whether we like it or not, taxes have to rise - that means both direct and indirect taxation. Nobody will say it because the debate on taxation has been locked down for two decades but raising basic rate tax to 25p for example would bring in much needed revenue as would further asset sales.

Conservative policy, like the debate, is narrow and one-sided. Given the scale of the problem, we need to look at the other side of the fence.

Totally O/T, but has anyone else noticed that the BBC, in discussing the current weather conditions, almost never refers to “:Scotland” but to “the northern part of the UK!”

Having discussed th effect on the NPotUK the reporter then went on the talk about events “South of the border!”

I wonder what words would have been used in early September and before!

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So there we have it. Farage is not in touch with the British public.

Once again the liberal metropolitan elite are more in touch with the public than Farage.

What did Boris say?

He said, people who vote UKIP have sex with vacuum cleaners

Ladbrokes have done a buzzword bingo for Brand vs Farage

I wouldn't be surprised if Brand went through the card, he only has soundbites in his locker.

"Racist" "Scaremongering" "Romanians" "twitter" "Trumpton" "Breastfeeding" all look certs to me

Farage must be odds on to say either "complete madness" or "utter lunacy", though I don't think he will be aggressive towards Brand. Brand will almost certainly be aggressive to Farage, especially if a couple of jokes fall flat.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Question-Time-Specials/Buzzword-Bingo/Politics-N-1z0xtp9Z1z0xtp4Z1z141ng/

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So there we have it. Farage is not in touch with the British public.

Once again the liberal metropolitan elite are more in touch with the public than Farage.

What did Boris say?

He said, people who vote UKIP have sex with vacuum cleaners

people who vote UKIP have sex with cleaners



Just banter

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So there we have it. Farage is not in touch with the British public.

Once again the liberal metropolitan elite are more in touch with the public than Farage.

What did Boris say?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/boris-johnson-says-that-breastfeeding-mothers-should-be-discreet-9910491.html

"Boris Johnson says that breastfeeding mothers should be 'discreet'"

Incidentally, got two letters in the post from Ed Balls today. Seems a bit excessive. And overuse of 'our NHS' is bloody tedious.

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

As the elite fails to recognise again and again, on the vast majority of issues, UKIP are at, or near, the centre of public opinion, while what the political class calls the "centre" is way out on left field.

I'm sorry: no-one sensible disagrees with that contention.

The real question is: has anyone seen anyone breastfeeding in public in a "non-discreet" manner?

I have not. Can you genuinely recall a single occasion were you've seen a woman breastfeed in a "non-discreet" manner?

UKIP is on the side of the public by making a ridiculous contention: that there are millions of women ostentatiously breastfeeding in public.

Someone on here claimed they'd never seen someone breastfeeding in public. I'm pretty certain they will have just that they never realised that breastfeeding was taking place.

It's not like a woman starts flashing her tits when she breastfeeds.

For those who are unaware it basically looks like she is cuddling her baby.

anotherDave said:

? VAT is a tax.

Please try and understand this - it's not difficult.

The Coalition raised VAT but didn't, for instance, raise the basic or higher rate of income tax. Indeed, the higher rate was cut in the Omnishambles Budget of 2012.

Given the nature of the fiscal emergency, it seems curious that more widescale tax rises weren't implemented as a way of generating revenue and reducing the deficit. That's NOT to say spending cuts shouldn't be made and I part company with those who claim that the NHS, Education and even Defence are somehow "special cases" which should avoid any cuts at all.

Fuel duty is a useful fundraiser for the Government and so is stamp duty. Gimmicks on the periphery of these are just that - a serious Chancellor committing to reducing the deficit wouldn't have been afraid to try to generate more revenue.

The problem is Osborne is a political Chancellor - he's not serious about the deficit whatever his weasel words.

@Stoge

I fully expect taxes to rise after the election whoever gets in. No party is going to campaign on the sort of increases necessary though.

A basic rate of income tax of 25% would mean the average worker would be paying 37p per pound of taxable income to HMG. I doubt many people would vote for that.

As for more asset sales, fine but they are of no use in cutting the deficit and would be a spit on the ocean when looking at total debt.

stodge said:

peter_from_putney said:

Surely this is a case of most intelligent people recognising the inescapable truth that in this country we are living way, way beyond our means on borrowed money and that this simply cannot continue indefinitely.
Government has to have the courage to grasp the nettle. To date, all this Government has done is to poke it with a stick. Still at least that's better than the previous lot who feed the nettle with copious quantities of fertilizer.

Perhaps you wouldn't consider me "intelligent" but I would be in the 26% camp. Reducing the deficit is important, no question, but the key is HOW we do it.

Simply cutting spending (and there's a vindictive undercurrent about aspects of this which is far from pleasant) and only then in a few areas (excluding the NHS, education and defence seems foolish) only looks at half the problem.

Conservatives only seem to want to talk about the spending but it's also about getting money in via tax receipts, asset sales and the like. The public finances truly went over the cliff when the income dried up in 2007-08. The collapse in income tax, corporation tax and VAT receipts threw the splurge in spending into sharp relief.

The priority must be to get money in as much as it is to stop spending. Indeed, the more money Government receives, the more it can allocate to debt finance. The problem is even though the Coalition raised VAT, there's next to no mention of raising taxes but this is unavoidable.

Whether we like it or not, taxes have to rise - that means both direct and indirect taxation. Nobody will say it because the debate on taxation has been locked down for two decades but raising basic rate tax to 25p for example would bring in much needed revenue as would further asset sales.

Conservative policy, like the debate, is narrow and one-sided. Given the scale of the problem, we need to look at the other side of the fence.

For me, living beyond our means, does not just mean our spending exceeds our income. It means there is an undermining fundamental problem that our spending exceeds any reasonable expectation of what our income should or could be. I think this applies not only to the UK but also to the rest of Europe.

For this reason I certainly do not think that we should be looking at ways to perpetuate an unsustainable system by pumping yet more tax payers money into it. We need to radically rethink the whole provision of public services with a view to massive cuts and a wholesale change in our ideas about what the State should and should not be doing.

Anyone who thinks we can just allow the State to continue to spend larger and larger proportions of GDP really isn't living in the real world.

stodge said:

peter_from_putney said:

Surely this is a case of most intelligent people recognising the inescapable truth that in this country we are living way, way beyond our means on borrowed money and that this simply cannot continue indefinitely.
Government has to have the courage to grasp the nettle. To date, all this Government has done is to poke it with a stick. Still at least that's better than the previous lot who feed the nettle with copious quantities of fertilizer.

..... Whether we like it or not, taxes have to rise - that means both direct and indirect taxation. Nobody will say it because the debate on taxation has been locked down for two decades but raising basic rate tax to 25p for example would bring in much needed revenue as would further asset sales.
Conservative policy, like the debate, is narrow and one-sided. Given the scale of the problem, we need to look at the other side of the fence.

The problem stodge is that the effect of tax increases tends to be highly elastic and subject to the law of diminishing returns. Tax the highest paid much more and they modify their arrangements, ultimately enough just move elsewhere and there is a drop in tax returns. Sales tax increases tend to be more inelastic but at our VAT level of 20% we are probably at/near/over the point of diminishing returns.
It is notable that the top 1% of income earners pay over 30% of the income tax raised. That is a high level of re-distribution whilst not providing major incentives on them to modify their arrangements.

chestnut said:

So who is Ed actually talking to?

The Quiet Bat People

anotherDave said:

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

As the elite fails to recognise again and again, on the vast majority of issues, UKIP are at, or near, the centre of public opinion, while what the political class calls the "centre" is way out on left field.

I'm sorry: no-one sensible disagrees with that contention.

The real question is: has anyone seen anyone breastfeeding in public in a "non-discreet" manner?

I have not. Can you genuinely recall a single occasion were you've seen a woman breastfeed in a "non-discreet" manner?

In the case of Claridges, the lady posed for a photograph, and tweeted it.

Did the picture look like she was breastfeeding ostentatiously?

I think not: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-30298382

If you pose for a photograph, you are clearly being 'ostentatious'.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ostentatious

If you had passed the woman on the left breastfeeding, would you have even noticed?

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago

ComRes ITN poll that will terrify Labour. 33% support cutting spending to 1930's levels, 26% oppose. Lab praying it was the game changer.

Also on the important mumsnet issue of the day:

"Women should have to be discrete when breast feeding in public places such as restaurants and cafes" +56% / -30%

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1346/itv-news-autumn-statement-poll.htm

As the elite fails to recognise again and again, on the vast majority of issues, UKIP are at, or near, the centre of public opinion, while what the political class calls the "centre" is way out on left field.

I'm sorry: no-one sensible disagrees with that contention.

The real question is: has anyone seen anyone breastfeeding in public in a "non-discreet" manner?

I have not. Can you genuinely recall a single occasion were you've seen a woman breastfeed in a "non-discreet" manner?

UKIP is on the side of the public by making a ridiculous contention: that there are millions of women ostentatiously breastfeeding in public.

Someone on here claimed they'd never seen someone breastfeeding in public. I'm pretty certain they will have just that they never realised that breastfeeding was taking place.

It's not like a woman starts flashing her tits when she breastfeeds.

For those who are unaware it basically looks like she is cuddling her baby.

This is what I didn't get about this whole argument. I am damn sure you will find there are women who have gone to functions at Claridges in low cut dresses that showed more breast than a woman feeding her baby.

Scott_P said:

chestnut said:

So who is Ed actually talking to?

The Quiet Bat People

The Quiet Bat People have spoken and they're turning up the volume?

Richard_Tyndall said:

For me, living beyond our means, does not just mean our spending exceeds our income. It means there is an undermining fundamental problem that our spending exceeds any reasonable expectation of what our income should or could be. I think this applies not only to the UK but also to the rest of Europe.

For this reason I certainly do not think that we should be looking at ways to perpetuate an unsustainable system by pumping yet more tax payers money into it. We need to radically rethink the whole provision of public services with a view to massive cuts and a wholesale change in our ideas about what the State should and should not be doing.

Anyone who thinks we can just allow the State to continue to spend larger and larger proportions of GDP really isn't living in the real world.

I'm open to any and all suggestions about a "new deal" in that regard but the fact remains we have a growing population of elderly and school-age children which need support and investment and for whatever reason the private sector isn't able or willing to meet the gap.

In the short to medium term, the requitrement is to bring the budget into balance and that means raising more income AND cutting spending until the two meet somewhere.

There are of course two options - one is to see the State withdraw from a range of activities (that needs to be defined). The other is to raise taxes to an amount which makes the current arrangements sustainable (that also needs to be defined).

Richard_Tyndall said:

This is what I didn't get about this whole argument. I am damn sure you will find there are women who have gone to functions at Claridges in low cut dresses that showed more breast than a woman feeding her baby.

I think the point everyone is missing is Farage's completely correct assertion that any business should be able to choose who they serve. I am not compelled to offer my labour to - say - the BNP if they decide they need to hire a fund manager; why should Claridges not have the right to choose who they serve?

Of course, it's probably very poor business sense for Claridges to discriminate against breastfeeding women, but there should be no bars on them doing so, beyond their own self interest.