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SystemSystem Posts: 12,686
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

Convention says that as an election approaches, the public will put aside their flirtation with protest parties and return to the serious business of choosing a government for the country. Well, convention be damned.

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    *blows raspberry at peter*
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,651
    edited December 2014
    Tories seem to have lost plenty of votes to UKIP (and far from certain if more than a small % of those will go back to them come the GE), but how low can Labour go? The drop in their vote share is quite amazing and shows no sign of stopping with votes going to UKIP and the Greens.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tories seem to have lost plenty of votes to UKIP (and far from certain if more than a small % of those will go back to them come the GE), but how low can Labour go? The drop in their vote share is quite amazing and shows no sign of stopping with votes going to UKIP and the Greens.

    Indeed. The next election is heading toward a contest of who has the larger core vote in a given constituency, whilst both main parties in that constituency hope their local core vote is enough to beat the insurgent parties.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    ELBOW for all polls with a field-work end-date between 1st Nov and 30th Nov inclusive:

    44 polls with a total weighted sample of 56,434:

    Lab 33.3
    Con 31.8
    UKIP 16.1
    LD 7.6

    Lab lead 1.5%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    ELBOW for all polls with a field-work end-date between 1st Oct and 31st Oct inclusive:

    45 polls with a total weighted sample of 59,394:

    Lab 33.8
    Con 32.0
    UKIP 16.1
    LD 7.7

    Lab lead 1.8%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    ELBOW for all polls with a field-work end-date between 1st Sep and 30th Sep inclusive:

    38 polls with a total weighted sample of 51,029:

    Lab 35.7
    Con 31.5
    UKIP 15.2
    LD 7.6

    Lab lead 4.2%

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    I would say its even less certain than that. Even given what you say about a small part of the world being engaged. We could take the position that public opinion (baring Black Swan type events) actually takes a damn long time to change, and so might be substantially the same at the election as the polls show now.

    Taking the hypothetical case that the election was actually tomorrow, as is suggested on most poll questions what could we really say.

    - The difference between CON and LAB is MoE and has been for a couple of months.
    - 25% of respondents reply DK, we dont know much about them, and which ever way they swing will swamp any minor differenced between the parties
    - We have the Greens and UKIP with significant percentages of the vote, we dont have any real idea how well they will manage to cluster their vote, and hence how many seats they will take.
    - More importantly we dont know in how many marginal seats losing votes to UKIP or the Greens will be enough to change the outcome.

    Personally I think what will determine this election isnt how many more Clactons or Brighton Pavillions we get, its how many more Heywood and Middletons we get, and especially how many more H&Ms we get where Labour are damaged enough by UKIP and the Greens to let the Tories in, or Cons are damaged enough by UKIP to let Labour in.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,704
    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    Inclined to agree. I suspect that we are approaching a watershed, though, and post-Christmas things will be different.
    It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OldKingCole said:

    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    Inclined to agree. I suspect that we are approaching a watershed, though, and post-Christmas things will be different.
    It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment.
    Agreed "It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment."
    Voters are also now focused on ......Xmas.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Indigo "I think what will determine this election isnt how many more Clactons or Brighton Pavillions we get, its ............(how many) Cons are damaged enough by UKIP to let Labour in. "
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Indigo "I think what will determine this election isnt how many more Clactons or Brighton Pavillions we get, its ............(how many) Cons are damaged enough by UKIP to let Labour in. "

    I agree that is likely to be the major effect. But it also could be said that while Labour might lose half as many votes to UKIP as the Tories do, they are also losing a noticeable chunk of votes to the Greens which the Tories wont.

    You can see a CON/LAB type marginal, or a seat which would de facto become a CON/LAB marginal as the LD vote recedes in that area, where LAB would otherwise win, by says 2,500 votes, but where they lose 2,000 votes to UKIP from the WVM end of their spectrum, and 5,000 votes to the Greens from the lefty end. The Tories might get hit for 4,000 seats by UKIP and still win.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Indigo, outside Scotland, Labour has to drop much further to lose seats. But, I agree that the Greens may impair Labour from getting net gains.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Q: When will the LDs reach rock bottom in the polling? Is this the point? With just 5 months left they will be hoping that there is no further decline to come.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OldKingCole said:

    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    Inclined to agree. I suspect that we are approaching a watershed, though, and post-Christmas things will be different.
    It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment.
    Agreed "It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment."
    Voters are also now focused on ......Xmas.
    Absolutely.

    I don't think the country will begin warming up to the election until February at the earliest and probably March. January will be post-Christmas blues. February is when people start to think about getting out of winter.

    The first opinion poll of consequence will probably be around March 7th, two months out when some people begin to take notice of the election.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Q: When will the LDs reach rock bottom in the polling? Is this the point? With just 5 months left they will be hoping that there is no further decline to come.

    Broadly speaking national polling isn't as significant as to how the LibDem perform in their 70 or so hotspots.

    Ukip and the LibDems might poll around 12% each but end up with <3 and >30 respectively. FPTP will be very hard on the kippers come the general election.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    audreyanne said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OldKingCole said:

    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    Inclined to agree. I suspect that we are approaching a watershed, though, and post-Christmas things will be different.
    It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment.
    Agreed "It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment."
    Voters are also now focused on ......Xmas.
    Absolutely.

    I don't think the country will begin warming up to the election until February at the earliest and probably March. January will be post-Christmas blues. February is when people start to think about getting out of winter.

    The first opinion poll of consequence will probably be around March 7th, two months out when some people begin to take notice of the election.
    Indeed.

    However the erosion of the Labour lead has been a constant and I would expect this to continue even until the voters start to become fully engaged in the early Spring.



  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    - "these figures remain excellent for the SNP."

    And the next generation of voters is coming along. Scottish Lib Dems in 6th (!) place. Quite a stunning change in fortunes. As recently as 2005 the SLDs were the No.2 party north of the border, with a very respectable 23% of the national vote.

    Hope the RN has started planning for where they are going to store 200 nuclear warheads on the Medway. The planning application should be laugh a minute.

    YouGov - Voting intention, 18-24 year olds
    Fieldwork: 2-28 November 2014

    Great Britain
    Sample Size: 2112

    Lab 34%
    Con 24%
    Grn 19%
    UKIP 11%
    SNP/PC 6%
    LD 6%
    oth 1%

    Scotland
    Sample Size: 285

    SNP 48%
    Grn 15%
    Lab 14%
    Con 13%
    UKIP 5%
    LD 4%
    oth 1%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jrfu2ekqp9/Results_Nov14_VI_18-24s_Website.pdf
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    audreyanne said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OldKingCole said:

    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    Inclined to agree. I suspect that we are approaching a watershed, though, and post-Christmas things will be different.
    It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment.
    Agreed "It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment."
    Voters are also now focused on ......Xmas.
    Absolutely.

    I don't think the country will begin warming up to the election until February at the earliest and probably March. January will be post-Christmas blues. February is when people start to think about getting out of winter.

    The first opinion poll of consequence will probably be around March 7th, two months out when some people begin to take notice of the election.
    The Fisher model says the polls should start to move, anticipating the general election, from 20 months before election day.

    http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingFeb14.pdf
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Those who think the Tories are doing a decent job still think that - about 32% of the voters.

    Those who don't think the Tories are doing a decent job are split all over the shop. Labour should have hoovered them up, but the most damning indictment of Ed Miliband and his shadow Cabinet is that they are losing votes when they ask the voters to support them.

    A couple of points back from UKIP - and 34% for the Tories could yet be a comfortable winning margin, both in popular vote and seats. Much more swing-back than that is looking on the optimistic side. But the Tories don't need swing-back whilst ever Labour is suffering swing-away. The great unknown now is - what is Labour's floor? The most complacent people in politics look to be those in Labour who thought that the only way was up after 2010....
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Shadsy's latest blog:

    'Tory and Labour majority chances fading fast'

    ... at Ladbrokes, the odds of no party getting a majority have now hit their lowest level at 2/5, having been Evens less than two months ago. Labour and the Tories remain tied at 10/11 each to win the most seats. Combining our odds on the most seats market and majority betting, we can produce the following implied estimates;

    Hung; Con most 34.6%
    Hung; Lab most 31.5%
    Lab Maj 18.5%
    Con Maj 15.4%

    One caveat about the Fisher numbers: They haven’t yet properly dealt with the recent SNP surge in Scotland. Once they’ve built that in, I expect their Labour majority estimate will be a bit closer to ours.

    http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/05/tory-and-labour-majority-chances-fading-fast/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Not sure this was flagged yesterday, another Tory MP stands down.

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-05/north-dorset-mp-bob-walter-will-stand-down-at-next-election/

    This time Dorset N.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,790
    audreyanne said:



    I don't think the country will begin warming up to the election until February at the earliest and probably March. January will be post-Christmas blues. February is when people start to think about getting out of winter.

    The first opinion poll of consequence will probably be around March 7th, two months out when some people begin to take notice of the election.

    We've discussed this here before and have very different views (though I that that yours are sliding - didn't you think that January was going to be when people started paying attention?). I wonder if that's a marginal seat effect? In Broxtowe there is an obvious pre-election atmosphere: people stop me in the street or even lean out of cars to ask me how it's going or shout encouragement or derision. Ring a doorbell and people instantly know what it's about even if my party sticker has fallen off (as the bloody things do - the alternative is to ruin your clothes with safety pins on rosettes) and start telling me what they're going to do before I open my mouth (the majority have met me before as I've been doing 100 homes a week for 18 years). Very few express doubts.

    And that's partly because they're bombarded. I've put out three leaflets recently and an email most weeks. My opponent has sent direct mail to seemingly half the constituency every few weeks and emails every Saturday. We've canvassed over 60% of voters in the last year. The Tories don't have a significant ground game but have been phone canvassing for over a year. UKIP have had street stands with balloons and have put out two leaflets.

    A friend lives in a non-marginal Tory seat. He has had no contact whatever from anyone. He'd probably agree with you that nothing much is happening. But that's not typical of where it matters.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    dr_spyn said:

    Not sure this was flagged yesterday, another Tory MP stands down.

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-05/north-dorset-mp-bob-walter-will-stand-down-at-next-election/

    This time Dorset N.

    North Dorset - Ladbrokes

    Con 1/100
    LD 20/1
    UKIP 20/1
    Lab 100/1

    Result last time:

    Con (Robert Walter) 27,640
    LD 20,015
    Lab 2,910
    UKIP 2,812
    Grn 546
    oth 218

    The Lib Dems have ditched their three-time candidate Emily Gasson and are giving Hugo Mieville a try. One almost feels sorry for him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    FPT
    Scott_P said:

    » show previous quotes
    Oh Stuart.

    I am glad to see your catastrophic loss of the IndyRef (which you were quite emphatic would go the other way) hasn't dimmed your keen sense of humour.

    Oh, wait...

    Bobajob
    I think you are confusing him with Malcolm. Stuart said on a number of occasions he wasn't at all sure which way it would go, to be fair.

    Tuppence worth , I think you are either very confused or senile, like Stuart I said many times that it was unlikely to be YES, whilst I really really wanted it to be I most certainly did not ever say it was a certainty.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,084

    Despite good fortune being heaped on good fortune the Tories haven't risen above 31%

    Despite ordure upon ordure landing on Labour they are still level pegging.

    This tells me that there is a bigger upside for Labour than there is for the Tories.

    I can't explain why this should be the case but the facts are incontestable.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Remember it is Small Business Saturday today. Shop locally while you still can. Your local High Street is home to many vibrant businesses.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    I most certainly did not ever say it was a certainty.

    Wow.

    Well at least we now know the SNP plan for abandoning Eck's pledge that the IndyRef was a once in a generation event; pretend the last 2 years never happened...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,084
    Stuart. Any thoughts on the likely winner in Edinburgh South?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hope the RN has started planning for where they are going to store 200 nuclear warheads on the Medway.

    A prediction Stuart?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,084
    Easterross

    "Remember it is Small Business Saturday today. Shop locally while you still can. Your local High Street is home to many vibrant businesses."

    Decisions decisions...... a coffee a tattoo or kinky underwear
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    I most certainly did not ever say it was a certainty.

    Wow.

    Well at least we now know the SNP plan for abandoning Eck's pledge that the IndyRef was a once in a generation event; pretend the last 2 years never happened...
    We will see how smug you are after the next one in a few years time. Once the nasty party have stuffed Scotland , they will find it harder to scare the peasants the next time. Tories and LibDems will be able to share a taxi to Holyrood after 2016, oh forgot they get some consolation seats for being losers. Both regional puppets are serial losers, party leader and not even manage 4 figures voting for them.
    Not a lot for Tories to be smug about in Scotland, but imagine it suits you.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Not sure this was flagged yesterday, another Tory MP stands down.

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-05/north-dorset-mp-bob-walter-will-stand-down-at-next-election/

    This time Dorset N.

    North Dorset - Ladbrokes

    Con 1/100
    LD 20/1
    UKIP 20/1
    Lab 100/1

    Result last time:

    Con (Robert Walter) 27,640
    LD 20,015
    Lab 2,910
    UKIP 2,812
    Grn 546
    oth 218

    The Lib Dems have ditched their three-time candidate Emily Gasson and are giving Hugo Mieville a try. One almost feels sorry for him.
    Good to see your posting again.

    Could Labour poll less than UKIP in that seat?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    edited December 2014
    Roger said:

    Easterross

    "Remember it is Small Business Saturday today. Shop locally while you still can. Your local High Street is home to many vibrant businesses."

    Decisions decisions...... a coffee a tattoo or kinky underwear

    I've been thinking the British should start using bookmakers for polling stations instead of making schools close for the day. They have good security and auditing, and they're absolutely fecking everywhere.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,393
    Going for a lunch with Ruth Davidson in Dundee today. I must say she is putting herself about far more than any Scottish Tory leader I can remember. I would love the chance to put my Unionist first theory to her.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Tokyo, we must have too many British bookies if they've opened branches in Tokyo! The morning commute must be horrendous for the staff.

    Just saw the Marf cartoon on the previous thread, and rather liked it. As for the move being provocative, it could be worse. We could've lent them to Turkey.

    On-topic: I think both main parties could benefit from a boost when people who don't post on sites such as this start thinking seriously about the next government.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW for all polls with a field-work end-date between 1st Nov and 30th Nov inclusive:

    44 polls with a total weighted sample of 56,434:

    Lab 33.3
    Con 31.8
    UKIP 16.1
    LD 7.6

    Lab lead 1.5%

    Sunil, the reason why I take a weighted average of the polls is because otherwise it gives undue prominence to YouGov and Populus, who produce about a half and a fifth of the polls respectively. YouGov does receive a higher weighting in my figures simply because their own monthly average is less likely to have statistical error than, say, Mori who put out just the one but the weighting applied for frequency in this case would be 4:3, not 20:1 (there is also a second weighting based on their accuracy in 2010).

    Obviously, different inputs and different formulae are likely to produce different outputs. The important thing, whatever series you're using, is to be consistent. Again, this is why I take the same companies in the same ratios each month as otherwise their in house adjustments would skew the overall figure. It's also why Populus and Ashcroft are excluded, much as I'd like not to: there isn't the consistency of data across the parliament.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,393
    The Greens are a truly ridiculous party (sorry Neil) and the fact that Labour is losing votes to them at this stage of the electoral cycle should cause Labour supporters something approaching despair. Of course exactly the same is true of UKIP and the Tories but they at least seemed to have stopped the rot after suffering more damage initially.

    The odds on Labour polling less than 30% in GB must be falling. Didn't think we would see that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    DavidL said:

    Going for a lunch with Ruth Davidson in Dundee today. I must say she is putting herself about far more than any Scottish Tory leader I can remember. I would love the chance to put my Unionist first theory to her.

    Did you win 12th prize in a raffle
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,393
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Going for a lunch with Ruth Davidson in Dundee today. I must say she is putting herself about far more than any Scottish Tory leader I can remember. I would love the chance to put my Unionist first theory to her.

    Did you win 12th prize in a raffle
    Haven't bought the ticket yet Malcolm. I might buy an extra one for you if you ask nicely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    edited December 2014
    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    NickPalmer said:



    We've discussed this here before and have very different views (though I that that yours are sliding - didn't you think that January was going to be when people started paying attention?). I wonder if that's a marginal seat effect? In Broxtowe there is an obvious pre-election atmosphere: people stop me in the street or even lean out of cars to ask me how it's going or shout encouragement or derision. Ring a doorbell and people instantly know what it's about even if my party sticker has fallen off (as the bloody things do - the alternative is to ruin your clothes with safety pins on rosettes) and start telling me what they're going to do before I open my mouth (the majority have met me before as I've been doing 100 homes a week for 18 years). Very few express doubts.

    And that's partly because they're bombarded. I've put out three leaflets recently and an email most weeks. My opponent has sent direct mail to seemingly half the constituency every few weeks and emails every Saturday. We've canvassed over 60% of voters in the last year. The Tories don't have a significant ground game but have been phone canvassing for over a year. UKIP have had street stands with balloons and have put out two leaflets.

    A friend lives in a non-marginal Tory seat. He has had no contact whatever from anyone. He'd probably agree with you that nothing much is happening. But that's not typical of where it matters.

    It might just be your own remarkable hyperactivity that's making the difference to your perceptions in Broxtowe, Nick. I live in a tight marginal too - Lincoln which has a Conservative majority of slightly over 1,000 so isn't too far removed from your own situation. Over the past 12 months (aside from at local or EU election time) I've had just two leaflets from the Labour candidate. One was one of those very annoying pretendy Christmas card things last December (and no doubt she'll do it again this year) and the other was an ordinary leaflet a few weeks ago. None of the other parties have put anything out yet. It's hardly election fever here.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    audreyanne said:

    'The way things are going.'

    That's just the point, David. They aren't.

    The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.

    The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.

    I disagree with that assessment. I've heard many arguments over the years that voters will return to X when they've been doing Y in other elections and in polls. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't - but there's no Iron Law.

    What you have to look at is how the parties and party leaders are viewed by the public in general and by those saying they'd vote for minor parties in particular: is there a reason for them to be pulled back? At the moment, there is a strong meme among many that "they're all the same". They're not, but if they go on believing that - and those only marginally engaged or seeking to reaffirm that prejudice are likely to do so - then they won't vote for Con/Lab/LD.

    Yes, the campaign may make a difference. The debates (if they happen) may make a difference, though if Farage is there then that difference could be a swing to UKIP rather than away from them. On the other hand, the bubble might burst. But when people have been voting in lesser elections in this way for several years, and when they have been saying they'd vote at a GE in this way for several years, it's not unreasonable to suppose that the ones with humble pie to eat come May will be those who choose to ignore all that evidence.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Not sure this was flagged yesterday, another Tory MP stands down.

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-05/north-dorset-mp-bob-walter-will-stand-down-at-next-election/

    This time Dorset N.

    North Dorset - Ladbrokes

    Con 1/100
    LD 20/1
    UKIP 20/1
    Lab 100/1

    Result last time:

    Con (Robert Walter) 27,640
    LD 20,015
    Lab 2,910
    UKIP 2,812
    Grn 546
    oth 218

    The Lib Dems have ditched their three-time candidate Emily Gasson and are giving Hugo Mieville a try. One almost feels sorry for him.
    The UKIP candidate is a former Conservative Party agent.

    http://steve-unwin.co.uk/steve-unwin-uk-independence-party-ukip/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    I think it's wait for the price to go back up...


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    edited December 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    MD, who knows what price it will be in 2016 when independence would have occurred. Bigger worry is how London will fund their massive borrowing now they can steal less money from Scotland than they previously could. I expect even bigger budget cuts for Scotland as the nasty party try to get more out of us.

    I do expect another referendum sooner rather than later, next GE and Holyrood elections will be interesting. Once the budgets are slashed and people find that whilst there is plenty of pooling we are short on the sharing , there will be a lot less to scare them with next time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Meanwhile, Spain forgets to read the Treaty of Utrecht for 301 years in a row:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30348141
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. G, the danger (for independence chaps) is that the shale from the US permanently depresses the oil price. Wait and see is not a great answer but it fits for now. In a few years or when calls for a second vote become more ardent a more concrete answer on that (and currency) will be needed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    I think it's wait for the price to go back up...


    Bit better than London plan , just keep borrowing more and more and tell the idiots we are booming and they should be happy on their zero hours employment
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,266
    DH

    Do you have any views on the Autumn Statement predictions being based on the assumption of a massive increase in household borrowing ?

    Do you think that is likely to happen ?

    Do you think that would be good or bad if it did happen ?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    anotherDave said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Not sure this was flagged yesterday, another Tory MP stands down.

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-05/north-dorset-mp-bob-walter-will-stand-down-at-next-election/

    This time Dorset N.

    North Dorset - Ladbrokes

    Con 1/100
    LD 20/1
    UKIP 20/1
    Lab 100/1

    Result last time:

    Con (Robert Walter) 27,640
    LD 20,015
    Lab 2,910
    UKIP 2,812
    Grn 546
    oth 218

    The Lib Dems have ditched their three-time candidate Emily Gasson and are giving Hugo Mieville a try. One almost feels sorry for him.
    The UKIP candidate is a former Conservative Party agent.

    http://steve-unwin.co.uk/steve-unwin-uk-independence-party-ukip/
    UKIP, the new party, nothing like the old parties, a fresh start all round.
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Why did David Cameron, ex deer hunter,ask armed police to seal off a woodland in Oxfordshire so he could shoot pigeons? Surely he had better things to do such as trying to run the country.He must be pleased that after the next election he will have more time for stag hunts once again!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    I think it's wait for the price to go back up...


    Bit better than London plan , just keep borrowing more and more and tell the idiots we are booming and they should be happy on their zero hours employment
    Better than squeezing the pips of the Middle class with taxes on mobility to pay for state administered social justice. The France of the North is on the way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    Probably an economy based on neutrino harvesting....

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,266
    another_richard said:

    DH

    Do you have any views on the Autumn Statement predictions being based on the assumption of a massive increase in household borrowing ?

    Do you think that is likely to happen ?

    Do you think that would be good or bad if it did happen ?

    Any PB Tories can feel free to respond if they wish.

    For the sheeple Osborne's new line to bleat appears to be:

    "Household borrowing good, Government borrowing bad"

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, the danger (for independence chaps) is that the shale from the US permanently depresses the oil price. Wait and see is not a great answer but it fits for now. In a few years or when calls for a second vote become more ardent a more concrete answer on that (and currency) will be needed.

    In a few years, Mister Dancer, the shale from England will be a major factor too...

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Morning.....

    Richard Delingpole ‏@DickDelingpole 19h19 hours ago
    Farage's utterly reasonable comments about breastfeeding are somehow being described as extreme. FFS Is this all you lefties have right now?

    ...and the BBC continues the same attack this morning.

    And heres another thing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30355953
    UK to establish £15m permanent Mid East military base.
    That £15 million looks very suspect to me. What's the MOD going to have there, a military cupboard, perhaps.

    All with the background of a bill to give 0.7% of GDP in foreign aid that was passed in the commons yesterday. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30340696
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    roserees64 said:

    Why did David Cameron, ex deer hunter,ask armed police to seal off a woodland in Oxfordshire so he could shoot pigeons? Surely he had better things to do such as trying to run the country.He must be pleased that after the next election he will have more time for stag hunts once again!

    Perhaps he fancied pigeon for tea ? Delicious !
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    MarqueeMark said:

    Those who think the Tories are doing a decent job still think that - about 32% of the voters.

    Those who don't think the Tories are doing a decent job are split all over the shop. Labour should have hoovered them up, but the most damning indictment of Ed Miliband and his shadow Cabinet is that they are losing votes when they ask the voters to support them.

    A couple of points back from UKIP - and 34% for the Tories could yet be a comfortable winning margin, both in popular vote and seats. Much more swing-back than that is looking on the optimistic side. But the Tories don't need swing-back whilst ever Labour is suffering swing-away. The great unknown now is - what is Labour's floor? The most complacent people in politics look to be those in Labour who thought that the only way was up after 2010....

    The big question is whether the post-2010 LD defectors will remain firm. So far, they have been relatively so but in the last few months there have been signs that some have drifted off. I know Mike didn't like my methodology but I stand by it and in any case, it's consistent with the overall figures. At some point I'll update it in the light of Labour's further drop.

    Until the Greens started putting on vote share, there wasn't really anywhere else for left-wing individuals with an oppositionist mindset to go, but with the election looming and Labour having to make a choice on the deficit between populism and credibility, the only real argument Labour has to keep them on board is "stop the Tories", which may not be enough if Labour tries to be Tory Lite.

    If Labour were to lose their LD defectors, they'd instantly be down in the mid-20s, before any associated loss from whatever might have prompted it, to UKIP, the nationalists or government parties.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, the danger (for independence chaps) is that the shale from the US permanently depresses the oil price. Wait and see is not a great answer but it fits for now. In a few years or when calls for a second vote become more ardent a more concrete answer on that (and currency) will be needed.

    An independence campaign built on an economic case is always going to be vulnerable to international market moves.

    A winning case has to be in the cultural and political spheres, rather like other recently emerged states. I expect the same in any Euro-referendum.

    The Scottish economic future with declining oil production, ageing population and high taxes is not a very firm foundation for independence.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    another_richard said:

    another_richard said:

    DH

    Do you have any views on the Autumn Statement predictions being based on the assumption of a massive increase in household borrowing ?

    Do you think that is likely to happen ?

    Do you think that would be good or bad if it did happen ?

    Any PB Tories can feel free to respond if they wish.

    For the sheeple Osborne's new line to bleat appears to be:

    "Household borrowing good, Government borrowing bad"

    Household borrowing isn't rising. Gov borrowing is down.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    I thought you could get that for free on the back of a cereal Scott's Porridge Oats packet
    Morris_Dancer said:

    given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    Mind Bleach!

    I now have an image of Eck running around in a dirty simmet shouting Yipikaye...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    I most certainly did not ever say it was a certainty.

    Wow.

    Well at least we now know the SNP plan for abandoning Eck's pledge that the IndyRef was a once in a generation event; pretend the last 2 years never happened...
    We will see how smug you are after the next one in a few years time. Once the nasty party have stuffed Scotland , they will find it harder to scare the peasants the next time. Tories and LibDems will be able to share a taxi to Holyrood after 2016, oh forgot they get some consolation seats for being losers. Both regional puppets are serial losers, party leader and not even manage 4 figures voting for them.
    Not a lot for Tories to be smug about in Scotland, but imagine it suits you.
    So the 'once in a generation' line was a lie then.

    And speaking as a Tory, I'd be disappointed on current numbers if we don't emerge from the election with gains in Scotland given the collapse in Labour and LD fortunes. The Borders and Edinburgh offer prospects.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Trumpton_UKIP: Taking a lead from @Nigel_Farage Dr Mopp has asked Mrs Honeydew to stop feeding her baby in an "ostentatious" way http://t.co/qMsgpT8s6y
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    david_herdson said:

    So the 'once in a generation' line was a lie then.

    One of many
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Check out the graph - personal debt static since 2007

    http://www.independent.co.uk/money/loans-credit/1430000000000-britains-personal-debt-timebomb-8950372.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    That graph repeated for govt debt would show it rising still. Hence the focus to try to reduce ...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    another_richard said:

    DH

    Do you have any views on the Autumn Statement predictions being based on the assumption of a massive increase in household borrowing ?

    Increased household and corporate borrowing is normal during an upturn in the economy. I do have reservations about the scale of it.
    another_richard said:

    Do you think that is likely to happen?

    Yes, providing there's not another global crunch which would rightly send the banks into a far more cautious mood.
    another_richard said:

    Do you think that would be good or bad if it did happen?

    That depends on what the borrowing is for. Borrowing for investment (and particularly the right kind of investment) is not particularly a problem; borrowing for consumption is much more so.

    It is a lot more complex than that (excessive investment in housing stock is not a good thing but nor is underinvestment) and borrowing for consumption is not necessarily bad providing it's kept to manageable levels. After all, these are not isolated transactions but feed into the wider economy and so borrowing for consumption at one level can simply be an indirect way of funding corporate investment, or an indirect way of funding corporate executives' lavish holidays abroad.

    Perhaps my biggest reservation about the prediction is not that the borrowing is anticipated; it's that no downturn is. Of course, no government ever predicts a downturn but the reality is that there is still a great deal of stress in the international system and while we might get safely through the next few years, it's a very long way from a certainty.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388

    Like many of you, I was wondering what percentage of the vote Ukip will get in May 2015.

    I think a gardening analogy might be easiest, especially as Alan Titchmarsh is a fan now. So I'd liken Ukip to a shoot growing in poor soil. It needs the following to thrive ...

    1, Fertiliser. In the form a sneering from the media, the great, the good and the posh.
    2. Sunlight. In the form of discussion about immigration.
    3. Rain. In the form of Rotherham and Tower Hamlets, closely followed by excess political correctness.
    4. The right temperature. In the form of general EU silliness and a feeling of economic decline.

    Without these factors, the plant may wither. Unless it's already grown to a state where the roots have spread too deeply.

    The politicians have been falling over themselves to supply factors 1 to 4 so far. Will they carry on?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    CD13 said:


    Like many of you, I was wondering what percentage of the vote Ukip will get in May 2015.

    I think a gardening analogy might be easiest, especially as Alan Titchmarsh is a fan now. So I'd liken Ukip to a shoot growing in poor soil. It needs the following to thrive ...

    1, Fertiliser. In the form a sneering from the media, the great, the good and the posh.
    2. Sunlight. In the form of discussion about immigration.
    3. Rain. In the form of Rotherham and Tower Hamlets, closely followed by excess political correctness.
    4. The right temperature. In the form of general EU silliness and a feeling of economic decline.

    Without these factors, the plant may wither. Unless it's already grown to a state where the roots have spread too deeply.

    The politicians have been falling over themselves to supply factors 1 to 4 so far. Will they carry on?

    Nice one. Carry on. ;)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Mr Dancer,

    As an aside, I noticed, via Facebook, that my publishers Wild Wolf, are offering my e-book, 'An ever rolling stream', for free "for a limited period".

    Have I been remaindered? Or is this normal? Did Sir Edric ever get this treatment?

    As WB Yeats said "Tread softly for you tread on my dreams."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CD13 said:


    Like many of you, I was wondering what percentage of the vote Ukip will get in May 2015.

    I think a gardening analogy might be easiest, especially as Alan Titchmarsh is a fan now. So I'd liken Ukip to a shoot growing in poor soil. It needs the following to thrive ...

    1, Fertiliser. In the form a sneering from the media, the great, the good and the posh.
    2. Sunlight. In the form of discussion about immigration.
    3. Rain. In the form of Rotherham and Tower Hamlets, closely followed by excess political correctness.
    4. The right temperature. In the form of general EU silliness and a feeling of economic decline.

    Without these factors, the plant may wither. Unless it's already grown to a state where the roots have spread too deeply.

    The politicians have been falling over themselves to supply factors 1 to 4 so far. Will they carry on?

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. CD13, well, at the moment Sir Edric's Temple is entirely self-published so all pricing stuff (Amazon price-match aside) is down to me. There are sound reasons why some go for temporary price cuts (even down to zero). It can garner more downloads/'sales', and earn more reviews. When the price goes back up, the reviews remain and may tempt more people.

    [Incidentally, it's not free, as of now, on Amazon UK. It may be regional].

    It also means there's a legitimate/not-entirely-spam reason to bang on about something via social media.

    'Free' could also include a time-limited inclusion on whatever Amazon's subscription service is called. That's free for subscribers but I believe authors/publishers do get something if their book is downloaded.

    Small not-quite-plug: a free Sir Edric story for Christmas will be up fairly soon. It's a pretty short story, but longer than the Easter one.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Mike K,

    I don't sneer at Ukip. I may not agree with some of their policies but like much of the population of the UK, the attitude of the other parties to these 'plebs' has been an eye opener for us.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.

    Pretty dubious about that last bit, as is Mr Martin:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html
    This keeps happening. Commentators look for the "jump the shark" moment when Ukip falls back. I've fallen victim to this syndrome myself several times, expecting various slip-ups to cost the party support. The reality seems to be that everything – including scandal and the party's epic deceit on the deficit, cuts, the NHS – just bounces off. What seems to be happening is that they are already slipping back a little in the polls as voters start to focus on 2015, but they will still land in a position that is much higher going into the election than was widely envisaged a few years ago, with the continued capacity to cause electoral chaos.
    The important point being mentioned further up the same article being:
    I bet none of those who are furious about Farage's comments or amused by the fuss were ever going to vote for Ukip anyway.
    UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    edited December 2014
    Mr Dancer,

    Thanks for the information.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    david_herdson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Those who think the Tories are doing a decent job still think that - about 32% of the voters.

    Those who don't think the Tories are doing a decent job are split all over the shop. Labour should have hoovered them up, but the most damning indictment of Ed Miliband and his shadow Cabinet is that they are losing votes when they ask the voters to support them.

    A couple of points back from UKIP - and 34% for the Tories could yet be a comfortable winning margin, both in popular vote and seats. Much more swing-back than that is looking on the optimistic side. But the Tories don't need swing-back whilst ever Labour is suffering swing-away. The great unknown now is - what is Labour's floor? The most complacent people in politics look to be those in Labour who thought that the only way was up after 2010....

    The big question is whether the post-2010 LD defectors will remain firm. So far, they have been relatively so but in the last few months there have been signs that some have drifted off. I know Mike didn't like my methodology but I stand by it and in any case, it's consistent with the overall figures. At some point I'll update it in the light of Labour's further drop.

    Until the Greens started putting on vote share, there wasn't really anywhere else for left-wing individuals with an oppositionist mindset to go, but with the election looming and Labour having to make a choice on the deficit between populism and credibility, the only real argument Labour has to keep them on board is "stop the Tories", which may not be enough if Labour tries to be Tory Lite.

    If Labour were to lose their LD defectors, they'd instantly be down in the mid-20s, before any associated loss from whatever might have prompted it, to UKIP, the nationalists or government parties.
    Yesterday's YouGov had the Greens approaching par with Labour among 2010 LDs, 20% vs 25%.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lq7n3or10x/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-041214.pdf
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Indigo said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.

    Pretty dubious about that last bit, as is Mr Martin:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html
    This keeps happening. Commentators look for the "jump the shark" moment when Ukip falls back. I've fallen victim to this syndrome myself several times, expecting various slip-ups to cost the party support. The reality seems to be that everything – including scandal and the party's epic deceit on the deficit, cuts, the NHS – just bounces off. What seems to be happening is that they are already slipping back a little in the polls as voters start to focus on 2015, but they will still land in a position that is much higher going into the election than was widely envisaged a few years ago, with the continued capacity to cause electoral chaos.
    The important point being mentioned further up the same article being:
    I bet none of those who are furious about Farage's comments or amused by the fuss were ever going to vote for Ukip anyway.
    UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.


    humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited December 2014
    Meanwhile the Green Party have [i]so far[/i] confirmed that they are standing in 30 Lib Dem held seats in 2015. These include 8 they did not stand in in 2010 (shown in bold with lib dem majority) , seven of which are marginals with Lib Dem majorities under 5,000

    As they have only nominated 150 candidates so far and expect to stand in 487 (75% of) seats, this list will inevitably grow.

    Bath
    Brecon and Radnor
    Brent Central
    Bristol West
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Ceredigion
    *Cheltenham (Lib Maj 4,920)
    Chippenham
    *Cornwall North (Lib Maj 2,981)
    Devon North
    *Eastbourne (Lib Maj 3,435)
    *Edinburgh West (Lib Maj 3,803)
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Manchester Withington
    Norwich South
    Portsmouth South
    *St Austell & Newquay (Lib Maj 1,312)
    St Ives
    Sheffield Hallam
    *Solihull (Lib Maj 175)
    *Somerton and Frome
    Sutton and Cheam
    *Taunton Deane (Lib Maj 3,993)
    Twickenham
    Wells
    *Westmoreland and Lonsdale (Lib Maj 12,264)

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.

    Pretty dubious about that last bit, as is Mr Martin:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html
    This keeps happening. Commentators look for the "jump the shark" moment when Ukip falls back. I've fallen victim to this syndrome myself several times, expecting various slip-ups to cost the party support. The reality seems to be that everything – including scandal and the party's epic deceit on the deficit, cuts, the NHS – just bounces off. What seems to be happening is that they are already slipping back a little in the polls as voters start to focus on 2015, but they will still land in a position that is much higher going into the election than was widely envisaged a few years ago, with the continued capacity to cause electoral chaos.
    The important point being mentioned further up the same article being:
    I bet none of those who are furious about Farage's comments or amused by the fuss were ever going to vote for Ukip anyway.
    UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.


    humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.

    Look at the comments below the Telegraph article, and there are loads of them, 99.5% supporting Farage and UKIP. I haven't seen such support on a single issue for weeks.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.

    Pretty dubious about that last bit, as is Mr Martin:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html
    This keeps happening. Commentators look for the "jump the shark" moment when Ukip falls back. I've fallen victim to this syndrome myself several times, expecting various slip-ups to cost the party support. The reality seems to be that everything – including scandal and the party's epic deceit on the deficit, cuts, the NHS – just bounces off. What seems to be happening is that they are already slipping back a little in the polls as voters start to focus on 2015, but they will still land in a position that is much higher going into the election than was widely envisaged a few years ago, with the continued capacity to cause electoral chaos.
    The important point being mentioned further up the same article being:
    I bet none of those who are furious about Farage's comments or amused by the fuss were ever going to vote for Ukip anyway.
    UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.
    humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.

    Look at the comments below the Telegraph article, and there are loads of them, 99.5% supporting Farage and UKIP. I haven't seen such support on a single issue for weeks.
    UKIP supporters in supporting the messiah shock.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.

    Pretty dubious about that last bit, as is Mr Martin:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html
    This keeps happening. Commentators look for the "jump the shark" moment when Ukip falls back. I've fallen victim to this syndrome myself several times, expecting various slip-ups to cost the party support. The reality seems to be that everything – including scandal and the party's epic deceit on the deficit, cuts, the NHS – just bounces off. What seems to be happening is that they are already slipping back a little in the polls as voters start to focus on 2015, but they will still land in a position that is much higher going into the election than was widely envisaged a few years ago, with the continued capacity to cause electoral chaos.
    The important point being mentioned further up the same article being:
    I bet none of those who are furious about Farage's comments or amused by the fuss were ever going to vote for Ukip anyway.
    UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.
    humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.
    Look at the comments below the Telegraph article, and there are loads of them, 99.5% supporting Farage and UKIP. I haven't seen such support on a single issue for weeks.
    UKIP supportersvoters in supporting the messiah shock.


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    RE: LD defectors

    In January 2014. YG showed the 2010 LD VI as:

    LD retention: 35
    Labour:34
    Cons:12
    UKIP:9
    Green:5

    At the end of November it was:

    LD Retention: 27
    Labour:30
    Cns:13
    UKIP:13
    Green:13

    First 4 Polls in December show:

    LD Retention:27
    Labour: 27
    Cons:13
    UKIP: 12
    Green: 16

    Show there seems to be a trend from Labour to Green within the LD defectors.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Much wild ranting from the glen this morning..sounds like he has wiped his ar*e with a thistle
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Meanwhile the Green Party have [i]so far[/i] confirmed that they are standing in 30 Lib Dem held seats in 2015. These include 8 they did not stand in in 2010 (shown in bold with lib dem majority) , seven of which are marginals with Lib Dem majorities under 5,000

    As they have only nominated 150 candidates so far and expect to stand in 487 (75% of) seats, this list will inevitably grow.

    Bath
    Brecon and Radnor
    Brent Central
    Bristol West
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Ceredigion
    *Cheltenham (Lib Maj 4,920)
    Chippenham
    *Cornwall North (Lib Maj 2,981)
    Devon North
    *Eastbourne (Lib Maj 3,435)
    *Edinburgh West (Lib Maj 3,803)
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Manchester Withington
    Norwich South
    Portsmouth South
    *St Austell & Newquay (Lib Maj 1,312)
    St Ives
    Sheffield Hallam
    *Solihull (Lib Maj 175)
    *Somerton and Frome
    Sutton and Cheam
    *Taunton Deane (Lib Maj 3,993)
    Twickenham
    Wells
    *Westmoreland and Lonsdale (Lib Maj 12,264)

    The National Health Action candidate in the Eastleigh by-election was reported to have been intending to stand as a Green Party candidate, but they decided not to participate.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Tell Vlad he can't hunt.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/10205156/Hunting-shooting-and-fishing-with-Vladimir-Putin-Russias-man-of-action.html?frame=1456107
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited December 2014
    Voters defecting to the Green party are one of the biggest reasons why I don't have much time for the idea that the liberals can hold 2/3rds of their seats with a 7-10% share of the vote.

    It is notable that the Greens declined to stand in a good few Libdem marginals last time. The idea that a superincumbency vote will prop Libdems up when the greens have the same national share of the vote is far fetched. Similarly a good few anti tory voters in constituencies like Yeovil will peel off to UKIP and others will slink back to Labour.

    I also wonder whether in places like Westmoreland and St Austell, wealthy yoghurt knitters with second homes will register themselves at their North London home next time.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    what polls are out tonight?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Meanwhile the Green Party have [i]so far[/i] confirmed that they are standing in 30 Lib Dem held seats in 2015. These include 8 they did not stand in in 2010 (shown in bold with lib dem majority) , seven of which are marginals with Lib Dem majorities under 5,000

    As they have only nominated 150 candidates so far and expect to stand in 487 (75% of) seats, this list will inevitably grow.

    Bath
    Brecon and Radnor
    Brent Central
    Bristol West
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Ceredigion
    *Cheltenham (Lib Maj 4,920)
    Chippenham
    *Cornwall North (Lib Maj 2,981)
    Devon North
    *Eastbourne (Lib Maj 3,435)
    *Edinburgh West (Lib Maj 3,803)
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Manchester Withington
    Norwich South
    Portsmouth South
    *St Austell & Newquay (Lib Maj 1,312)
    St Ives
    Sheffield Hallam
    *Solihull (Lib Maj 175)
    *Somerton and Frome
    Sutton and Cheam
    *Taunton Deane (Lib Maj 3,993)
    Twickenham
    Wells
    *Westmoreland and Lonsdale (Lib Maj 12,264)

    The EU Parliament result for Eastleigh had the Greens getting 2,464 votes. They didn't participate in the 2014 local elections.

    (Con 9,000, LD 7,400, UKIP 13,000)

    http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/pdf/EuropeanResults2014.pdf

    http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/the-council/register-to-vote--elections/borough-elections/2014-borough-election-results.aspx

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_by-election,_2013


  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Indigo said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the Kipper plant prefers to be well watered pints at a time. Also prefers shade - direct sunlight on their interesting views is hurting them still.

    Pretty dubious about that last bit, as is Mr Martin:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html
    This keeps happening. Commentators look for the "jump the shark" moment when Ukip falls back. I've fallen victim to this syndrome myself several times, expecting various slip-ups to cost the party support. The reality seems to be that everything – including scandal and the party's epic deceit on the deficit, cuts, the NHS – just bounces off. What seems to be happening is that they are already slipping back a little in the polls as voters start to focus on 2015, but they will still land in a position that is much higher going into the election than was widely envisaged a few years ago, with the continued capacity to cause electoral chaos.
    The important point being mentioned further up the same article being:
    I bet none of those who are furious about Farage's comments or amused by the fuss were ever going to vote for Ukip anyway.
    UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.
    humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.
    Look at the comments below the Telegraph article, and there are loads of them, 99.5% supporting Farage and UKIP. I haven't seen such support on a single issue for weeks.
    UKIP supportersvoters in supporting the messiah shock.



    Very few of those telegraph posters are UKIP supporters in the round, methinks. They just saw the kernal of the argument and reacted accordingly.
  • peterelectionfollopeterelectionfollo Posts: 13
    Strangely UKIP vote in polls could be underestimated as some do not prompt for them.

    However as GE2015 approaches I think their voteshare will decline. As in 2010 I think 2 main parties will secure just two thirds of total vote. With 4 parties potentially scoring over 10% Con/Lab/UKIP/LD it will be difficult to predict seats and the final result may very unfair not only on UKIP/LD but also second on voteshare may win GE2015 as happened in 1951 & February 1974.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Once again, the biggest loser in November was Labour, down another 1.6% last month, amounting to a loss of 3% over the last two months and almost 6% since the same time last year. By contrast, the Conservatives remain marooned within a point of 31.5, as they have been for almost a year and a half.
    So the trend implies Con on 30.9 in May and Labour losing another 2.5 points taking them down to 29.4.

    Then all we have to factor in is the issue of pollster accuracy.

    Who do they overstate and who do they understate?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    CD13 said:

    Mike K,

    I don't sneer at Ukip. I may not agree with some of their policies but like much of the population of the UK, the attitude of the other parties to these 'plebs' has been an eye opener for us.

    I didn't think you were sneering. I'm a straight kind of guy, and just liked your post, even if it was tongue in cheek.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    I tell you what's the problem with breastfeeding 'argument': it makes those in favour look like, well, metropolitan liberals or, worse, Italians.

    Now, you may not be surprised that I see nothing wrong in being Italian, but emphasising this may not be the wisest thing to do if you hope to be elected in the UK.

    It is another case of UKIP unwittingly showing how out of touch the metropolitan elite are.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, the danger (for independence chaps) is that the shale from the US permanently depresses the oil price. Wait and see is not a great answer but it fits for now. In a few years or when calls for a second vote become more ardent a more concrete answer on that (and currency) will be needed.

    For sure MD, nothing something to be worrying about for now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, could've been worse. Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    I think it's wait for the price to go back up...


    Bit better than London plan , just keep borrowing more and more and tell the idiots we are booming and they should be happy on their zero hours employment
    Better than squeezing the pips of the Middle class with taxes on mobility to pay for state administered social justice. The France of the North is on the way.
    SNP balance their budget every year , no option given restraints. London should be taking lessons from them. I don't see many tax reductions emanating from the pig trough either.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    DavidL said:

    The Greens are a truly ridiculous party (sorry Neil)

    I'll put you down as a "maybe".
  • peterelectionfollopeterelectionfollo Posts: 13
    Without wishing misfortune on any MP, if one were to resign or die shortly, would there be an ensuing byelection as in 1979 & 1997 or would seat remain vacant as in 2010 (6 month rule) please?

    Obviously byelections give winning party a boost in polls.

    Thanking you.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,975
    Scott_P said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Thirteenth prize was listening to Salmond explain why a $70 oil price would've meant everlasting Caledonian prosperity.

    I thought you could get that for free on the back of a cereal Scott's Porridge Oats packet
    Morris_Dancer said:

    given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?

    Mind Bleach!

    I now have an image of Eck running around in a dirty simmet shouting Yipikaye...
    Far better than the Tory equivalents, for sure
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