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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Othe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up
Convention says that as an election approaches, the public will put aside their flirtation with protest parties and return to the serious business of choosing a government for the country. Well, convention be damned.
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44 polls with a total weighted sample of 56,434:
Lab 33.3
Con 31.8
UKIP 16.1
LD 7.6
Lab lead 1.5%
45 polls with a total weighted sample of 59,394:
Lab 33.8
Con 32.0
UKIP 16.1
LD 7.7
Lab lead 1.8%
38 polls with a total weighted sample of 51,029:
Lab 35.7
Con 31.5
UKIP 15.2
LD 7.6
Lab lead 4.2%
That's just the point, David. They aren't.
The election hasn't begun. Only in a tiny percentage of a tiny fraction of the cyberworld known as pb.com and in a little place called Westminster is there any interest in, or consciousness of, a General Election.
The only real question is whether there will be enough humble pie to go round.
Taking the hypothetical case that the election was actually tomorrow, as is suggested on most poll questions what could we really say.
- The difference between CON and LAB is MoE and has been for a couple of months.
- 25% of respondents reply DK, we dont know much about them, and which ever way they swing will swamp any minor differenced between the parties
- We have the Greens and UKIP with significant percentages of the vote, we dont have any real idea how well they will manage to cluster their vote, and hence how many seats they will take.
- More importantly we dont know in how many marginal seats losing votes to UKIP or the Greens will be enough to change the outcome.
Personally I think what will determine this election isnt how many more Clactons or Brighton Pavillions we get, its how many more Heywood and Middletons we get, and especially how many more H&Ms we get where Labour are damaged enough by UKIP and the Greens to let the Tories in, or Cons are damaged enough by UKIP to let Labour in.
It’s not like “before” when an election COULD be called at any moment.
Voters are also now focused on ......Xmas.
You can see a CON/LAB type marginal, or a seat which would de facto become a CON/LAB marginal as the LD vote recedes in that area, where LAB would otherwise win, by says 2,500 votes, but where they lose 2,000 votes to UKIP from the WVM end of their spectrum, and 5,000 votes to the Greens from the lefty end. The Tories might get hit for 4,000 seats by UKIP and still win.
I don't think the country will begin warming up to the election until February at the earliest and probably March. January will be post-Christmas blues. February is when people start to think about getting out of winter.
The first opinion poll of consequence will probably be around March 7th, two months out when some people begin to take notice of the election.
Ukip and the LibDems might poll around 12% each but end up with
However the erosion of the Labour lead has been a constant and I would expect this to continue even until the voters start to become fully engaged in the early Spring.
And the next generation of voters is coming along. Scottish Lib Dems in 6th (!) place. Quite a stunning change in fortunes. As recently as 2005 the SLDs were the No.2 party north of the border, with a very respectable 23% of the national vote.
Hope the RN has started planning for where they are going to store 200 nuclear warheads on the Medway. The planning application should be laugh a minute.
YouGov - Voting intention, 18-24 year olds
Fieldwork: 2-28 November 2014
Great Britain
Sample Size: 2112
Lab 34%
Con 24%
Grn 19%
UKIP 11%
SNP/PC 6%
LD 6%
oth 1%
Scotland
Sample Size: 285
SNP 48%
Grn 15%
Lab 14%
Con 13%
UKIP 5%
LD 4%
oth 1%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jrfu2ekqp9/Results_Nov14_VI_18-24s_Website.pdf
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingFeb14.pdf
Those who don't think the Tories are doing a decent job are split all over the shop. Labour should have hoovered them up, but the most damning indictment of Ed Miliband and his shadow Cabinet is that they are losing votes when they ask the voters to support them.
A couple of points back from UKIP - and 34% for the Tories could yet be a comfortable winning margin, both in popular vote and seats. Much more swing-back than that is looking on the optimistic side. But the Tories don't need swing-back whilst ever Labour is suffering swing-away. The great unknown now is - what is Labour's floor? The most complacent people in politics look to be those in Labour who thought that the only way was up after 2010....
'Tory and Labour majority chances fading fast'
... at Ladbrokes, the odds of no party getting a majority have now hit their lowest level at 2/5, having been Evens less than two months ago. Labour and the Tories remain tied at 10/11 each to win the most seats. Combining our odds on the most seats market and majority betting, we can produce the following implied estimates;
Hung; Con most 34.6%
Hung; Lab most 31.5%
Lab Maj 18.5%
Con Maj 15.4%
One caveat about the Fisher numbers: They haven’t yet properly dealt with the recent SNP surge in Scotland. Once they’ve built that in, I expect their Labour majority estimate will be a bit closer to ours.
http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/05/tory-and-labour-majority-chances-fading-fast/
http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-12-05/north-dorset-mp-bob-walter-will-stand-down-at-next-election/
This time Dorset N.
And that's partly because they're bombarded. I've put out three leaflets recently and an email most weeks. My opponent has sent direct mail to seemingly half the constituency every few weeks and emails every Saturday. We've canvassed over 60% of voters in the last year. The Tories don't have a significant ground game but have been phone canvassing for over a year. UKIP have had street stands with balloons and have put out two leaflets.
A friend lives in a non-marginal Tory seat. He has had no contact whatever from anyone. He'd probably agree with you that nothing much is happening. But that's not typical of where it matters.
Con 1/100
LD 20/1
UKIP 20/1
Lab 100/1
Result last time:
Con (Robert Walter) 27,640
LD 20,015
Lab 2,910
UKIP 2,812
Grn 546
oth 218
The Lib Dems have ditched their three-time candidate Emily Gasson and are giving Hugo Mieville a try. One almost feels sorry for him.
Scott_P said:
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Oh Stuart.
I am glad to see your catastrophic loss of the IndyRef (which you were quite emphatic would go the other way) hasn't dimmed your keen sense of humour.
Oh, wait...
Bobajob
I think you are confusing him with Malcolm. Stuart said on a number of occasions he wasn't at all sure which way it would go, to be fair.
Tuppence worth , I think you are either very confused or senile, like Stuart I said many times that it was unlikely to be YES, whilst I really really wanted it to be I most certainly did not ever say it was a certainty.
Despite good fortune being heaped on good fortune the Tories haven't risen above 31%
Despite ordure upon ordure landing on Labour they are still level pegging.
This tells me that there is a bigger upside for Labour than there is for the Tories.
I can't explain why this should be the case but the facts are incontestable.
Well at least we now know the SNP plan for abandoning Eck's pledge that the IndyRef was a once in a generation event; pretend the last 2 years never happened...
"Remember it is Small Business Saturday today. Shop locally while you still can. Your local High Street is home to many vibrant businesses."
Decisions decisions...... a coffee a tattoo or kinky underwear
Not a lot for Tories to be smug about in Scotland, but imagine it suits you.
Could Labour poll less than UKIP in that seat?
Mr. Tokyo, we must have too many British bookies if they've opened branches in Tokyo! The morning commute must be horrendous for the staff.
Just saw the Marf cartoon on the previous thread, and rather liked it. As for the move being provocative, it could be worse. We could've lent them to Turkey.
On-topic: I think both main parties could benefit from a boost when people who don't post on sites such as this start thinking seriously about the next government.
Obviously, different inputs and different formulae are likely to produce different outputs. The important thing, whatever series you're using, is to be consistent. Again, this is why I take the same companies in the same ratios each month as otherwise their in house adjustments would skew the overall figure. It's also why Populus and Ashcroft are excluded, much as I'd like not to: there isn't the consistency of data across the parliament.
The odds on Labour polling less than 30% in GB must be falling. Didn't think we would see that.
Edited extra bit: on a more serious note, given there are already rumblings of Referendum 2: Refer Harder, what's the SNP's new economic platform for such a thing, given the collapse in oil prices?
What you have to look at is how the parties and party leaders are viewed by the public in general and by those saying they'd vote for minor parties in particular: is there a reason for them to be pulled back? At the moment, there is a strong meme among many that "they're all the same". They're not, but if they go on believing that - and those only marginally engaged or seeking to reaffirm that prejudice are likely to do so - then they won't vote for Con/Lab/LD.
Yes, the campaign may make a difference. The debates (if they happen) may make a difference, though if Farage is there then that difference could be a swing to UKIP rather than away from them. On the other hand, the bubble might burst. But when people have been voting in lesser elections in this way for several years, and when they have been saying they'd vote at a GE in this way for several years, it's not unreasonable to suppose that the ones with humble pie to eat come May will be those who choose to ignore all that evidence.
http://steve-unwin.co.uk/steve-unwin-uk-independence-party-ukip/
I do expect another referendum sooner rather than later, next GE and Holyrood elections will be interesting. Once the budgets are slashed and people find that whilst there is plenty of pooling we are short on the sharing , there will be a lot less to scare them with next time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30348141
Do you have any views on the Autumn Statement predictions being based on the assumption of a massive increase in household borrowing ?
Do you think that is likely to happen ?
Do you think that would be good or bad if it did happen ?
For the sheeple Osborne's new line to bleat appears to be:
"Household borrowing good, Government borrowing bad"
Richard Delingpole @DickDelingpole 19h19 hours ago
Farage's utterly reasonable comments about breastfeeding are somehow being described as extreme. FFS Is this all you lefties have right now?
...and the BBC continues the same attack this morning.
And heres another thing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30355953
UK to establish £15m permanent Mid East military base.
That £15 million looks very suspect to me. What's the MOD going to have there, a military cupboard, perhaps.
All with the background of a bill to give 0.7% of GDP in foreign aid that was passed in the commons yesterday. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30340696
Until the Greens started putting on vote share, there wasn't really anywhere else for left-wing individuals with an oppositionist mindset to go, but with the election looming and Labour having to make a choice on the deficit between populism and credibility, the only real argument Labour has to keep them on board is "stop the Tories", which may not be enough if Labour tries to be Tory Lite.
If Labour were to lose their LD defectors, they'd instantly be down in the mid-20s, before any associated loss from whatever might have prompted it, to UKIP, the nationalists or government parties.
A winning case has to be in the cultural and political spheres, rather like other recently emerged states. I expect the same in any Euro-referendum.
The Scottish economic future with declining oil production, ageing population and high taxes is not a very firm foundation for independence.
cerealScott's Porridge Oats packet Mind Bleach!I now have an image of Eck running around in a dirty simmet shouting Yipikaye...
And speaking as a Tory, I'd be disappointed on current numbers if we don't emerge from the election with gains in Scotland given the collapse in Labour and LD fortunes. The Borders and Edinburgh offer prospects.
http://www.independent.co.uk/money/loans-credit/1430000000000-britains-personal-debt-timebomb-8950372.html
It is a lot more complex than that (excessive investment in housing stock is not a good thing but nor is underinvestment) and borrowing for consumption is not necessarily bad providing it's kept to manageable levels. After all, these are not isolated transactions but feed into the wider economy and so borrowing for consumption at one level can simply be an indirect way of funding corporate investment, or an indirect way of funding corporate executives' lavish holidays abroad.
Perhaps my biggest reservation about the prediction is not that the borrowing is anticipated; it's that no downturn is. Of course, no government ever predicts a downturn but the reality is that there is still a great deal of stress in the international system and while we might get safely through the next few years, it's a very long way from a certainty.
Like many of you, I was wondering what percentage of the vote Ukip will get in May 2015.
I think a gardening analogy might be easiest, especially as Alan Titchmarsh is a fan now. So I'd liken Ukip to a shoot growing in poor soil. It needs the following to thrive ...
1, Fertiliser. In the form a sneering from the media, the great, the good and the posh.
2. Sunlight. In the form of discussion about immigration.
3. Rain. In the form of Rotherham and Tower Hamlets, closely followed by excess political correctness.
4. The right temperature. In the form of general EU silliness and a feeling of economic decline.
Without these factors, the plant may wither. Unless it's already grown to a state where the roots have spread too deeply.
The politicians have been falling over themselves to supply factors 1 to 4 so far. Will they carry on?
As an aside, I noticed, via Facebook, that my publishers Wild Wolf, are offering my e-book, 'An ever rolling stream', for free "for a limited period".
Have I been remaindered? Or is this normal? Did Sir Edric ever get this treatment?
As WB Yeats said "Tread softly for you tread on my dreams."
[Incidentally, it's not free, as of now, on Amazon UK. It may be regional].
It also means there's a legitimate/not-entirely-spam reason to bang on about something via social media.
'Free' could also include a time-limited inclusion on whatever Amazon's subscription service is called. That's free for subscribers but I believe authors/publishers do get something if their book is downloaded.
Small not-quite-plug: a free Sir Edric story for Christmas will be up fairly soon. It's a pretty short story, but longer than the Easter one.
I don't sneer at Ukip. I may not agree with some of their policies but like much of the population of the UK, the attitude of the other parties to these 'plebs' has been an eye opener for us.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11275846/Nigel-Farages-breastfeeding-comments-will-do-Ukip-little-harm.html The important point being mentioned further up the same article being: UKIP pulls its support from golf-club bores and WVM, neither of which are remotely susceptible to attacks based on political correctness.
Thanks for the information.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lq7n3or10x/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-041214.pdf
humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.
As they have only nominated 150 candidates so far and expect to stand in 487 (75% of) seats, this list will inevitably grow.
Bath
Brecon and Radnor
Brent Central
Bristol West
Cambridge
Carshalton and Wallington
Ceredigion
*Cheltenham (Lib Maj 4,920)
Chippenham
*Cornwall North (Lib Maj 2,981)
Devon North
*Eastbourne (Lib Maj 3,435)
*Edinburgh West (Lib Maj 3,803)
Hornsey and Wood Green
Kingston and Surbiton
Leeds North West
Lewes
Manchester Withington
Norwich South
Portsmouth South
*St Austell & Newquay (Lib Maj 1,312)
St Ives
Sheffield Hallam
*Solihull (Lib Maj 175)
*Somerton and Frome
Sutton and Cheam
*Taunton Deane (Lib Maj 3,993)
Twickenham
Wells
*Westmoreland and Lonsdale (Lib Maj 12,264)
humour seems to be the best pesticide - this Trumpton meme is like catnip.
Look at the comments below the Telegraph article, and there are loads of them, 99.5% supporting Farage and UKIP. I haven't seen such support on a single issue for weeks.
Look at the comments below the Telegraph article, and there are loads of them, 99.5% supporting Farage and UKIP. I haven't seen such support on a single issue for weeks.
UKIP supporters in supporting the messiah shock.
UKIP supportersvoters in supporting the messiah shock.
In January 2014. YG showed the 2010 LD VI as:
LD retention: 35
Labour:34
Cons:12
UKIP:9
Green:5
At the end of November it was:
LD Retention: 27
Labour:30
Cns:13
UKIP:13
Green:13
First 4 Polls in December show:
LD Retention:27
Labour: 27
Cons:13
UKIP: 12
Green: 16
Show there seems to be a trend from Labour to Green within the LD defectors.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/10205156/Hunting-shooting-and-fishing-with-Vladimir-Putin-Russias-man-of-action.html?frame=1456107
It is notable that the Greens declined to stand in a good few Libdem marginals last time. The idea that a superincumbency vote will prop Libdems up when the greens have the same national share of the vote is far fetched. Similarly a good few anti tory voters in constituencies like Yeovil will peel off to UKIP and others will slink back to Labour.
I also wonder whether in places like Westmoreland and St Austell, wealthy yoghurt knitters with second homes will register themselves at their North London home next time.
(Con 9,000, LD 7,400, UKIP 13,000)
http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/pdf/EuropeanResults2014.pdf
http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/the-council/register-to-vote--elections/borough-elections/2014-borough-election-results.aspx
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_by-election,_2013
Very few of those telegraph posters are UKIP supporters in the round, methinks. They just saw the kernal of the argument and reacted accordingly.
However as GE2015 approaches I think their voteshare will decline. As in 2010 I think 2 main parties will secure just two thirds of total vote. With 4 parties potentially scoring over 10% Con/Lab/UKIP/LD it will be difficult to predict seats and the final result may very unfair not only on UKIP/LD but also second on voteshare may win GE2015 as happened in 1951 & February 1974.
Then all we have to factor in is the issue of pollster accuracy.
Who do they overstate and who do they understate?
Now, you may not be surprised that I see nothing wrong in being Italian, but emphasising this may not be the wisest thing to do if you hope to be elected in the UK.
It is another case of UKIP unwittingly showing how out of touch the metropolitan elite are.
Obviously byelections give winning party a boost in polls.
Thanking you.