Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
The successful future of the Conservative party is green, it is their only realistic path to attract the younger parts of the electorate in sufficient numbers to replace the boomers.
Vote %s and seat counts for the Tories with each MRP.
EC 24.77% 75 YG 22.27% 108 NS 23.32% 96 IPSOS 24.90% 110 Savanta 22.86% 53 Focaldata 23.50% 113 More in Common 27.98% 155 Survation 23.88% 72
Vote % is calculated by looking at the % projected for the Tories in each seat and comparing against Electoral Calculus expected turnout % and seat size in each seat. To get to a 1997 result the current polling would need to be a considerable miss.
Thanks, this is a great resource.
Thanks, it builds on the work of all the MRPs, and Matt Singh's work on the expected declaration times. If you spot any errors please let me know.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Ironically the one thing that the Conservative Party has definitely failed to conserve is the Conservative Party. Can it be restored from a pile of rusty bolts and the scorched upholstery? No doubt there are experts out there capable of this major resto job, it’s just one doubts that any of them will be in the smouldering post 04/07 remains.
Rather like trying to restore an A6M Type Zero that had been used for a kamikaze strike. And bounced off HMS Formidable's armoured deck.
But one does wonder if someone will find the nameplate and fix it to something completely new, so to speak. Like the sort of restored vintage car that leads to expensive lawsuits as to how authentic it is.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
IPSOS has it as a 0% in it Lab/Con marginal, every other MRP modeller goes for a Lib Dem gain, although even IPSOS won't point to their model being wrong if the Lib Dems take it - they have a higher range on the Lib Dem score. So it looks like a LD gain to me.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
Question please: does someone have to act as an expert witness? Can't he just be a common or garden partisan witness? And was either specified in the actual court case involved?
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
Question please: does someone have to act as an expert witness? Can't he just be a common or garden partisan witness? And was either specified in the actual court case involved?
If he weren’t an expert witness, he wouldn’t have been asked the sorts of questions he was asked.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
Also: the council tax banding stopped at relatviely low levels even in 1991, to try and keep an element of the Poll Tax.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
Question please: does someone have to act as an expert witness? Can't he just be a common or garden partisan witness? And was either specified in the actual court case involved?
Not a lawyer, but think...
1) You can't be forced to be an expert witness 2) You can be a 'partisan' but this has less value to the prosecution 3) He was presented as an expert witness, and very strict rules apply to such testimony (as I know from a case I was recently involved in).
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
Question please: does someone have to act as an expert witness? Can't he just be a common or garden partisan witness? And was either specified in the actual court case involved?
If he weren’t an expert witness, he wouldn’t have been asked the sorts of questions he was asked.
Thanks. But presumably this is made clear in the case record.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
I mailed my MP, Brendan Clarke Smith about moving to a more central based property tax system which would benefit everyone in Bassetlaw. He rejected it out of hand, which is counting against him in my vote choice. I am still undecided
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
It seems he's trying to claim he knew that expert witnesses had those duties, but it didn't apply to him as he wasn't one, merely a technician?
WTAF?
I think the problem here is that he was employed by Fujitsu at the time - so you can see why you may think that the needs of your employer and client meant you weren't an "expert" witness more a prosecution one - something not helped by him being continually briefed (and reports edited) by Post Office Lawyers.
I think he's off to spend a long time in jail for multiple cases of contempt of court but I suspect he's very much a patsy...
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
IPSOS has it as a 0% in it Lab/Con marginal, every other MRP modeller goes for a Lib Dem gain, although even IPSOS won't point to their model being wrong if the Lib Dems take it - they have a higher range on the Lib Dem score. So it looks like a LD gain to me.
The BBC had someone on the ground there yesterday straightforwardly talking about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories in the seat. They seemed to have already decided the tactical choice, which is pretty unusual for the Beeb.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
Indeed, so why keep the tax local?
Just go for simple land value and apply it nationally.
The national government already decrees care and other responsibilities onto Councils anyway. Just have a single tax, levied nationally, spent nationally. Problem solved. Updates automatically based on land value, no need for regular revaluations.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
It seems he's trying to claim he knew that expert witnesses had those duties, but it didn't apply to him as he wasn't one, merely a technician?
WTAF?
"Expert witness" has a specific meaning in law, as I understand it: someone fully qualified and competent with the state of the art, and who can give an objective assessment of the evidence. His or her responsibility is to the court, not to the partisan side of the prosecution or the defence.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
And that replaced the rates which as I recall were based on nominal rents from 1962.
Perhaps we should revalue properties more often than every 3 decades.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
Question please: does someone have to act as an expert witness? Can't he just be a common or garden partisan witness? And was either specified in the actual court case involved?
Not a lawyer, but think...
1) You can't be forced to be an expert witness 2) You can be a 'partisan' but this has less value to the prosecution 3) He was presented as an expert witness, and very strict rules apply to such testimony (as I know from a case I was recently involved in).
Re the Green score, its abit like the 'others' in Survation - who exactly? 1% PC and 6% between Galloway, Rod Liddle and the indies?? No. Edit- but all of that does indicate a huge dissatisfaction with the business as usual model
At the last election, Others (not including PC) were 1.1%. Galloway and Co are only standing in about a quarter of the seats, so even if a handful poll well Others will do well to reach 2%.
Likewise Greens best ever result is 3.8%, and I think they will beat that but not above 5%, which would be getting on for double last time and I'm sure they would take that.
But last time the pollsters were about right with the Greens, so maybe there is a quiet surge for them.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
He sort of prepared an excuse for that yesterday, though not a particularly convincing one.
..The inquiry is shown written evidence from barrister Warwick Tatford, who acted for the Post Office in the trial of wrongly convicted sub-postmaster Seema Misra. Tatford wrote that he told Jenkins he was "under a duty to provide a full disclosure" of known Horizon errors and bugs to Misra's lawyers at the time of that case. Jenkins now says he has "no recollection of such a discussion", adding: "I don't believe it would have occurred."...
....The inquiry is shown a document annotated by Jenkins, from 2013, relating to a case against sub-postmistress Kim Wylie. That document contained a lengthy declaration setting out the legal obligations on being an expert witness. Underneath it, Jenkins wrote: "Standard stuff. No comment required." He clarifies to the inquiry lawyer that he meant "I had seen similar stuff before... I didn't think it (those obligations) applied to me, wrongly"...
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
Financial cost is minimal - the VOA and land registry already have the data and models.
The issue is a political one because the issue was hidden in 1991 and can't be this time round...
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Con -> Green is an interesting switch.
I don’t see any evidence of a tremendous groundswell that way.
What I do see is a splintering of the Tory electoral coalition. The professional middle classes have now become much more left wing in sensibilities and outlook (at least for now - more on that later) and a lot are now avowed social democrats. Environmentalism is part of that, though I’m not sure I think generally to the extremes that the Greens espouse.
Meanwhile some of the traditional Labour coalition - the WWC - is moving to the right - as manifested in the 2019 vote. Some of that will come home to Labour this time, but there is a large opening for Reform/AN other right wing movement in the coming years.
The other interesting thing is how those middle class voters perceive a Labour government once they get one. It’s all lovely to support nice progressive things in principle, if Labour do have to hike taxes though, does that take the shine off somewhat?
In short: the electoral coalitions in the UK are in a state of flux we’ve not seen for decades, and I think it’s likely to throw up all sorts of crazy swings in the coming years.
Hmmm... I live in what's often miscalled a rural seat (though almost all its voters live in what are really tiny exurbs of a heritage town, but at least 95% of the acreage isn't built on) and it used to be a safe Tory place. 20 years ago, election time saw gazillions of blue poster springing up on the green fields. Now those green fields have either no, or mostly LD, posters - but for a few years many of those posters went Green. And the pretty villages have only LD or Labour posters. Partly demographics (your average 70 yr old doesn't vote Tory any more, and the few that do have better things to do in retirement than persuade tenant farmers, no longer deferential to inheritance-stuffed landlords, to put up Tory posters). Partly too because a lot of left-leaning might-have-been-Tories just don't trust the Greens (too many failed initiatives, perceived Green malign affect on LibGreen coalitions and real hostility to Thunberg-style ecofascism), even though their own opinions are moving ever greener.
It's not just shifts in voter attitudes. Creating political institutions that reflect those attitudes takes time - so almost inevitably, the choice of parties to vote for today probably never reflects the state of opinions.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
IPSOS has it as a 0% in it Lab/Con marginal, every other MRP modeller goes for a Lib Dem gain, although even IPSOS won't point to their model being wrong if the Lib Dems take it - they have a higher range on the Lib Dem score. So it looks like a LD gain to me.
The BBC had someone on the ground there yesterday straightforwardly talking about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories in the seat. They seemed to have already decided the tactical choice, which is pretty unusual for the Beeb.
Ipsos has the Lib Dems at 38 seats and 10.02 implied %. Looks slightly overly bearish for them bearing in mind the Lib Dem ground game which is normally very good. All other models are 50+ seats.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
This is all getting a bit puritanical now imo. It can only be a matter of time before someone calls for politicians to be banned from betting on politics altogether.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
It seems he's trying to claim he knew that expert witnesses had those duties, but it didn't apply to him as he wasn't one, merely a technician?
WTAF?
I think the problem here is that he was employed by Fujitsu at the time - so you can see why you may think that the needs of your employer and client meant you weren't an "expert" witness more a prosecution one - something not helped by him being continually briefed (and reports edited) by Post Office Lawyers.
I think he's off to spend a long time in jail for multiple cases of contempt of court but I suspect he's very much a patsy...
Exactly my take, Eek.
I think he just didn't take his role seriously enough and went along with the crowd he was running with.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
Indeed, so why keep the tax local?
Just go for simple land value and apply it nationally.
The national government already decrees care and other responsibilities onto Councils anyway. Just have a single tax, levied nationally, spent nationally. Problem solved. Updates automatically based on land value, no need for regular revaluations.
So how do local authorities raise their own funds, or are you abolishing them?
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
Nope, hopefully council tax due to be replaced with sane be it land value tax or simply last sales price...
So you’d bring in property taxes based on a national or absolute house price, rather than a relative house price in your local area?
That would require extensive central redistribution and bureaucracy, and mean that a five-bed detached house (currently Band H) in Middlesborough pays perhaps same as a studio apartment (Band A) in Kensington.
It would also completely shaft London and the surrounding area, forcing millions of people to move out and forcing key workers to start sharing.
Yes, I would.
I would replace Council Tax, and Stamp Duty and all other land-based taxes, with a single LVT at about 0.7% per annum of property prices.
I'd have that levied nationally and distributed nationally, with HMRC taking accountability for the fact that almost all Council services are nationally mandated anyway, such as care, education, health etc anyway.
London has higher prices but higher wages too, if paying a proportion of housing costs cools the housing market in London and sees some people and jobs go elsewhere in the UK instead, then that doesn't sound like a bad thing to me.
Hmm...
Calculates.
That would have the nice Irish couple (retired) next door to me out of their house.
Which would mean I could buy it and let it out.
Nice.
And even better your new tenants would then end up paying the wealth tax for you as most landlords are going to add it on to the yearly rent total to maintain profit margins
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
My hunch is the LDs will win the seat by a couple of thousand votes or thereabouts.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
Indeed, so why keep the tax local?
Just go for simple land value and apply it nationally.
The national government already decrees care and other responsibilities onto Councils anyway. Just have a single tax, levied nationally, spent nationally. Problem solved. Updates automatically based on land value, no need for regular revaluations.
So how do local authorities raise their own funds, or are you abolishing them?
I'd be OK with abolishing them, yes.
Or have them raise their own funds for things that are local choices that are not determined nationally, in whatever manner they decide, which is next to nothing nowadays.
The overwhelming majority of Council expenditure is nationally determined obligations. Why should the nation not pay for national obligations?
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Betting that you will win your seat seems a reasonable bet.
Beyond that as a politicians it becomes a question of how big a can of worms do you wish to have opened and thrown at you...
Seems to be a lot of moral panic about tbh. @Rochdalepioneers being a member of this forum has probably placed plenty of political bets and he's running to be an MP, as has @Tissue_Price who is standing down. Should parliament exclude everyone here ? I find the Alistair Jack story in particularly comical tbh. Maybe he's a lurker here and was just following TSE's tip !
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
It seems he's trying to claim he knew that expert witnesses had those duties, but it didn't apply to him as he wasn't one, merely a technician?
WTAF?
I think the problem here is that he was employed by Fujitsu at the time - so you can see why you may think that the needs of your employer and client meant you weren't an "expert" witness more a prosecution one - something not helped by him being continually briefed (and reports edited) by Post Office Lawyers.
I think he's off to spend a long time in jail for multiple cases of contempt of court but I suspect he's very much a patsy...
He seems to have been manipulated by the PO lawyers and not given sufficient advice.
It seems he wasn't the system architect, that was someone else whom we haven't seen.
How come he got pushed forward as the expert witness? He might have technical knowledge but seems completely unsuitable otherwise.
Nonetheless, if you agree to do these things, you have to do it right, so he's going to be in trouble.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
Financial cost is minimal - the VOA and land registry already have the data and models.
The issue is a political one because the issue was hidden in 1991 and can't be this time round...
Just look at the hysteria over air photographs of people's gardens in Wales, transmogrified into drones leering at sunbathing ladies etc. Which is for the *eaxisting* system.
Translated: "how dare I be made to pay the correct band of Council Tax?"!
Reform have just delivered a leaflet to my house. My front door was open (as I have deliverers turning up) and on display to him was several thousand LD leaflets and a very big Orange diamond in my hedge.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
London + Manchester is over a quarter of the English population! You can’t dismiss something affecting London + Manchester as trivial.
I didn’t design the council tax system. I’m not intending to vote for the party that did. Maybe they should have designed the system better so revaluations weren’t so costly.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
London + Manchester is over a quarter of the English population! You can’t dismiss something affecting London + Manchester as trivial.
I didn’t design the council tax system. I’m not intending to vote for the party that did. Maybe they should have designed the system better so revaluations weren’t so costly.
I think it could be done for a couple of million quid in partnership with Zoopla for a new set of initial estimates. Of course it won't be but it could be.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
London + Manchester is over a quarter of the English population! You can’t dismiss something affecting London + Manchester as trivial.
I didn’t design the council tax system. I’m not intending to vote for the party that did. Maybe they should have designed the system better so revaluations weren’t so costly.
Base it on the number of sq ft rather than valuations?
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
London + Manchester is over a quarter of the English population! You can’t dismiss something affecting London + Manchester as trivial.
I didn’t design the council tax system. I’m not intending to vote for the party that did. Maybe they should have designed the system better so revaluations weren’t so costly.
Also - the system favours well off people considerably, not least in its cutoff at higher bands. It's not wholly proportional or progressive by any means.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
This is all getting a bit puritanical now imo. It can only be a matter of time before someone calls for politicians to be banned from betting on politics altogether.
It was always going to. The media leapt on it as another kick the Tories story (which it is) but naturally overdid the outrage and manifested public hysteria over all political betting. Now they'll end up agreeing some stupid cross party arrangement on betting by politicians. We are supposed to be electing a government, instead half the media have turned into Oliver Cromwell faced with a tray of mince pies
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Is the council financial mess still a factor in Croydon?
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
When faced with a "former Tory" unsure whom to vote for, I think it's safe to mark them as Tory. A voting model that's stood the test of time.
Seriously, there are hundreds of thousands of BigGs the length and breadth of the country. When push comes to shove, they'll vote Conservative.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
This is all getting a bit puritanical now imo. It can only be a matter of time before someone calls for politicians to be banned from betting on politics altogether.
It was always going to. The media leapt on it as another kick the Tories story (which it is) but naturally overdid the outrage and manifested public hysteria over all political betting. Now they'll end up agreeing some stupid cross party arrangement on betting by politicians. We are supposed to be electing a government, instead half the media have turned into Oliver Cromwell faced with a tray of mince pies
Long ago, Colin Moynihan, later Miniature for Sport. was the cox in Boat Race for Oxford.
He bet on Oxford to win by 7 lengths. Oxford were firm favourites.
Some say, that on the day, his steering got strangely sub-optimal when they got more than 7 lengths ahead. They won by 7 lengths.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
This is all getting a bit puritanical now imo. It can only be a matter of time before someone calls for politicians to be banned from betting on politics altogether.
Footballers can't bet on football, jockeys can't bet on racing, so its hardly a preposterous suggestion.
I'd say if you are at, or expect to be at, cabinet level or above you shouldn't be betting on politics at all. At MP level or above, you shouldn't be betting on your side to do badly. If you know the result you shouldn't be betting. Beyond that I couldn't care much but if it was banned for MPs to bet on politics thats not ridiculous.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
It is ludicrous that the council tax you pay (in England) is based on what your property would have been worth in April 1991.
Why exactly?
The bigger house next door would have been worth more than yours in 1991, and the block of flats across the road worth less in 1991. It’s simply a measure of relative prices in any given local authority area, they set their budget and then allocate it to the various bands.
A bigger house in 1991 will be a bigger house in 2024, sure, but (1) it’s difficult to calculate, and (2) the value of different sorts of housing and, more so, different areas under the same local authority have varied a lot over the last 33 years. There are places near me that have hugely gentrified over those 3 decades, but benefit from 1991 valuations.
I suspect that relative gentrification within a single LA area is very much a London, and perhaps Manchester, issue.
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
London + Manchester is over a quarter of the English population! You can’t dismiss something affecting London + Manchester as trivial.
I didn’t design the council tax system. I’m not intending to vote for the party that did. Maybe they should have designed the system better so revaluations weren’t so costly.
Also - the system favours well off people considerably, not least in its cutoff at higher bands. It's not wholly proportional or progressive by any means.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
It seems he's trying to claim he knew that expert witnesses had those duties, but it didn't apply to him as he wasn't one, merely a technician?
WTAF?
I think the problem here is that he was employed by Fujitsu at the time - so you can see why you may think that the needs of your employer and client meant you weren't an "expert" witness more a prosecution one - something not helped by him being continually briefed (and reports edited) by Post Office Lawyers.
I think he's off to spend a long time in jail for multiple cases of contempt of court but I suspect he's very much a patsy...
He seems to have been manipulated by the PO lawyers and not given sufficient advice.
It seems he wasn't the system architect, that was someone else whom we haven't seen.
How come he got pushed forward as the expert witness? He might have technical knowledge but seems completely unsuitable otherwise.
Nonetheless, if you agree to do these things, you have to do it right, so he's going to be in trouble.
He was evidently given quite a lot of written advice about his duties as a witness, and either didn't read it (though he clearly read some of it), misunderstood it, or deliberately ignored it.
This is an enquiry where the euphemism 'economical with the truth' literally applies to most of the witness evidence. The extent of the lack of recall, and professed lack of understanding, on the part of those involved at all levels of the PO prosecution effort, would be quite remarkable if it hadn't by now become utterly predictable.
On Green Belt, and how capricious and inconsistent it is, I was checking that in our area.
Nottingham and Derby between them have 234 square miles of Greenbelt, which is 1/8 of the total area of the two counties which is 1848 sqm. Plus there are perhaps another 80-100 square miles of Derbyshire which are in the Greenbelt around Manchester and Sheffield. That's on top of the protected area in the Peak District National Park afaics.
By comparison, Leicester, the 3rd of the three Midlands' Cities, has no Green Belt at all.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
Every model has Uxbridge as a Labour gain too. Outer London is I agree the Tories best hope for outperformance of the models.
Got to say - they start on a bad point when they unilaterally add a video of him to a post without asking his permission...
To say it will end badly is a complete understatement - Martin very much wishes to be seen as independent.
And there are a lot of things that conversation could relate to - Section 21 removal, Labour law alignment with tax are just 2 where I know such are planned.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
The very name council tax was devised by Michael Heseltine explicitly to offload the blame to councils.
But I thought Labour had ruled out adding new council tax bands?
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
Every model has Uxbridge as a Labour gain too. Outer London is I agree the Tories best hope for outperformance of the models.
My own view is that Uxbridge is about the level of the firewall in London, although Finchley may stay blue in some circs
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
Could it be that they’re voting Lib Dem, but are too polite to upset you?
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
Every model has Uxbridge as a Labour gain too. Outer London is I agree the Tories best hope for outperformance of the models.
My own view is that Uxbridge is about the level of the firewall in London, although Finchley may stay blue in some circs
Yougov has Finchley as a Tory hold, I think it's likely the smallest swing of anywhere in pretty much all the models.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Con -> Green is an interesting switch.
I don’t see any evidence of a tremendous groundswell that way.
What I do see is a splintering of the Tory electoral coalition. The professional middle classes have now become much more left wing in sensibilities and outlook (at least for now - more on that later) and a lot are now avowed social democrats. Environmentalism is part of that, though I’m not sure I think generally to the extremes that the Greens espouse.
Meanwhile some of the traditional Labour coalition - the WWC - is moving to the right - as manifested in the 2019 vote. Some of that will come home to Labour this time, but there is a large opening for Reform/AN other right wing movement in the coming years.
The other interesting thing is how those middle class voters perceive a Labour government once they get one. It’s all lovely to support nice progressive things in principle, if Labour do have to hike taxes though, does that take the shine off somewhat?
In short: the electoral coalitions in the UK are in a state of flux we’ve not seen for decades, and I think it’s likely to throw up all sorts of crazy swings in the coming years.
I certainly wouldn't assume that all the ex-Cons are going to go Green - but I think it's maybe a sign as to how deep to the heart of the party the disaffection goes.
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
Looks like he lied to the Inquiry yesterday.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
It seems he's trying to claim he knew that expert witnesses had those duties, but it didn't apply to him as he wasn't one, merely a technician?
WTAF?
I think the problem here is that he was employed by Fujitsu at the time - so you can see why you may think that the needs of your employer and client meant you weren't an "expert" witness more a prosecution one - something not helped by him being continually briefed (and reports edited) by Post Office Lawyers.
I think he's off to spend a long time in jail for multiple cases of contempt of court but I suspect he's very much a patsy...
He seems to have been manipulated by the PO lawyers and not given sufficient advice.
It seems he wasn't the system architect, that was someone else whom we haven't seen.
How come he got pushed forward as the expert witness? He might have technical knowledge but seems completely unsuitable otherwise.
Nonetheless, if you agree to do these things, you have to do it right, so he's going to be in trouble.
It seems that the Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs were in the Post Office as well - *everyone* there seems to have been a hapless puppet of Dark Forces. That they can't name.
Bit like that General in charge at Abu Ghraib claimed half her jail was taken over by the CIA - without any documentation. Without anyone else seeing any CIA guys.
My expectation is that the Green vote will hold up but Reform will disappoint.
My rationale for this is that the Greens have outperformed in the local elections for the past two years, gaining councillors. They have activists on the ground working hard to get out the vote.
Reform have a couple of local councillors in Havant, otherwise none. Their ground war will be limited and their get out the vote is likely to be poor.
Given the national press focus on gambling and football, it will be the local activity which counts in this election.
I'm very much hoping that the Green vote holds up. And reasonably optimistic. The reason it hasn't in recent general elections is that tactical voting has led people to Labour. But now the political tides have turned and those who want to vote Green feel much more comfortable that it's ok. Plus we're definitely getting green Tories (at least in Clifton which may be an unusual case!)
On the other hand I agree that local activity may be important but the Greens have been VERY focused on just four constituencies. Activitists are being discouraged from investing and time and effort anywhere other than those 4. Perhaps that will impact national vote share... Not long to wait now.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
The very name council tax was devised by Michael Heseltine explicitly to offload the blame to councils.
But I thought Labour had ruled out adding new council tax bands?
I don't think Labour have ruled out anything regarding council tax...
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
Croydon demographic is moving away from the Tories and the effect of the Council bankruptcy seems to be fading so I think Labour should do it.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Honestly I don't particularly have an issue with it in principle - as in Davey's example, which I don't have a problem with - but that is substantively different to knowing something for certain before it is public knowledge and betting on that.
There is then the other potential risk (as with athletes) of potentially manipulating outcomes - which seems a lot less likely than in sport, but certainly not impossible. However, has there ever been any evidence of this happening?
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Honestly I don't particularly have an issue with it in principle - as in Davey's example, which I don't have a problem with - but that is substantively different to knowing something for certain before it is public knowledge and betting on that.
There is then the other potential risk (as with athletes) of potentially manipulating outcomes - which seems a lot less likely than in sport, but certainly not impossible. However, has there ever been any evidence of this happening?
In politics? Probably has happened in some country, somewhere. Don't recall anything in the UK.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
Croydon demographic is moving away from the Tories and the effect of the Council bankruptcy seems to be fading so I think Labour should do it.
A brief update re my lad's proxy voting issues: I phoned Birmingham City Council, and they confirmed that my son does indeed have a proxy vote, and there is a letter on its way to me. It all sounded a bit chaotic there, and the lady on the phone apologised for the delay - she said they were rather overwhelmed at the moment. She also confirmed that I didn't need the letter to cast the proxy vote; that I could indeed just turn up and prove my identity, and they would confirm from their list that I am eligible to cast the vote.
Thanks for the responses to my question yesterday.
The garden placard fairy has left a vote green placard three doors up, the sole placard on my street. Usually there would be a dozen, mix of green and labour but this time its all a bit 'meh'
I've made this point before - but political flags strike me as ever so slightly rude. It would be like me coming up to you in the street, unannounced, and declaring 'Vote Conservative!' or whatever. At the very least it's a way of making 75% of people think slightly less of you. We're generally quite good IRL at tiptoeing around contentious issues like this and I find it slightly surprising we used to do it to the scale we did.
I've got a little Labour sticker on my study window at the top left of the house. From the street you wouldn't know what it was - you'd have to scale up the wall and take a look, which you wouldn't because I'd spot you. However I know what it is, and it's there, I'm looking at it now.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
These are the people I call 'shy ex-Tories'. Theyve been Tory all their life, and can't admit even to themselves that they have changed. They'll vote for someone else, and may even be surprised as they put the cross down as to where they've put it. I've met them at a local level, but it feels like this time it's happening nationally.
OK, today's challenge/question. Leaving out Scotland and London, what's the furthest up the ladder the Tories manage a hold? I'm off for a look and will return with my guess.........
I would absolutely support reform of the Council Tax system. It is out of date and regressive. Unfortunately the reason it came about in the first place was because of a fudge to try and displease the least number of people, and no party has had a tremendous amount of appetite to revisit the funding of local government because of the history.
Starting from the principle that everyone living in a local authority boundary has access to its services, but allowing for adjustments to taxation based on income, feels to me the best way of reforming it. A local income levy essentially. Though how you collect that is the tricky part.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
These are the people I call 'shy ex-Tories'. Theyve been Tory all their life, and can't admit even to themselves that they have changed. They'll vote for someone else, and may even be surprised as they put the cross down as to where they've put it. I've met them at a local level, but it feels like this time it's happening nationally.
I remain unconvinced they really will be ex. On the morning with their pencil hovering over the ballot paper...
For anyone watching Sky News, don't put any stock in John Craig ramping up what a terrible night for the Tories it's going to be. He's not got access to any "inside information" and is just regurgitating the general situation. It caught me out with Uxbridge where at the start of the night he was going on about how bad it all was for the Tories. Of course the exit poll (Not available in by-elections) will be a much better guide than whatever he's waffling on about.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Honestly I don't particularly have an issue with it in principle - as in Davey's example, which I don't have a problem with - but that is substantively different to knowing something for certain before it is public knowledge and betting on that.
There is then the other potential risk (as with athletes) of potentially manipulating outcomes - which seems a lot less likely than in sport, but certainly not impossible. However, has there ever been any evidence of this happening?
Can anyone think of a party leader who has tanked their parties popularity in the polls with wacky ideas and a kamikaze approach to the campaign that could best be explained if they had bet against the party?
On Green Belt, and how capricious and inconsistent it is, I was checking that in our area.
Nottingham and Derby between them have 234 square miles of Greenbelt, which is 1/8 of the total area of the two counties which is 1848 sqm. Plus there are perhaps another 80-100 square miles of Derbyshire which are in the Greenbelt around Manchester and Sheffield. That's on top of the protected area in the Peak District National Park afaics.
By comparison, Leicester, the 3rd of the three Midlands' Cities, has no Green Belt at all.
Reason for that is that one of the purposes for Green Belt is the prevention of 'merging' of settlements (may not be the right term - it's a while since my town planning days). So much of the N&D GB is to keep a green wedge between Nottingham and Derby. The pressure to keep the two cities separate from Leicester is much less.
OK, today's challenge/question. Leaving out Scotland and London, what's the furthest up the ladder the Tories manage a hold? I'm off for a look and will return with my guess.........
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Ironically the one thing that the Conservative Party has definitely failed to conserve is the Conservative Party. Can it be restored from a pile of rusty bolts and the scorched upholstery? No doubt there are experts out there capable of this major resto job, it’s just one doubts that any of them will be in the smouldering post 04/07 remains.
It's not a "fixer-upper" is it. It's even beyond what Kirsty and Phil would call a "project".
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Is this perhaps why those Green numbers are holding up? It's not inner city radicals cross about Gaza, it's shire Tories protesting about the local environment. A safe place to park your vote without having to go the whole hog and vote Labour or Lib Dem.
This may also explain things like North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley.
The geographical spread of Green votes is going to be fascinating. I wish we had the same village-level voting data that France does. In theory it should be possible, we could do it based on polling station. But in practice it's not done that way.
Do we not get ward-level?
I agree that Green performance is one of the more fascinating side-plots in this election, and could have quite an impact on the future direction of the party, especially if it's the shires that deliver rather than the lib-left cities.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
The very name council tax was devised by Michael Heseltine explicitly to offload the blame to councils.
But I thought Labour had ruled out adding new council tax bands?
I don't think Labour have ruled out anything regarding council tax...
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Ironically the one thing that the Conservative Party has definitely failed to conserve is the Conservative Party. Can it be restored from a pile of rusty bolts and the scorched upholstery? No doubt there are experts out there capable of this major resto job, it’s just one doubts that any of them will be in the smouldering post 04/07 remains.
It's not a "fixer-upper" is it. It's even beyond what Kirsty and Phil would call a "project".
I would absolutely support reform of the Council Tax system. It is out of date and regressive. Unfortunately the reason it came about in the first place was because of a fudge to try and displease the least number of people, and no party has had a tremendous amount of appetite to revisit the funding of local government because of the history.
Starting from the principle that everyone living in a local authority boundary has access to its services, but allowing for adjustments to taxation based on income, feels to me the best way of reforming it. A local income levy essentially. Though how you collect that is the tricky part.
The LibDems have long supported a local income tax. Easy to do on top of your regular income tax. (I haven’t checked this year’s manifesto, however.)
The garden placard fairy has left a vote green placard three doors up, the sole placard on my street. Usually there would be a dozen, mix of green and labour but this time its all a bit 'meh'
I've made this point before - but political flags strike me as ever so slightly rude. It would be like me coming up to you in the street, unannounced, and declaring 'Vote Conservative!' or whatever. At the very least it's a way of making 75% of people think slightly less of you. We're generally quite good IRL at tiptoeing around contentious issues like this and I find it slightly surprising we used to do it to the scale we did.
I've got a little Labour sticker on my study window at the top left of the house. From the street you wouldn't know what it was - you'd have to scale up the wall and take a look, which you wouldn't because I'd spot you. However I know what it is, and it's there, I'm looking at it now.
That sounds more British. "I'm voting Labour, but I'm not going to shout about it."
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Ironically the one thing that the Conservative Party has definitely failed to conserve is the Conservative Party. Can it be restored from a pile of rusty bolts and the scorched upholstery? No doubt there are experts out there capable of this major resto job, it’s just one doubts that any of them will be in the smouldering post 04/07 remains.
It's not a "fixer-upper" is it. It's even beyond what Kirsty and Phil would call a "project".
Bare-metal rebuild.
Bare metal? - there may be a couple of small foundations that can be re-used but I suspect that's it...
On Green Belt, and how capricious and inconsistent it is, I was checking that in our area.
Nottingham and Derby between them have 234 square miles of Greenbelt, which is 1/8 of the total area of the two counties which is 1848 sqm. Plus there are perhaps another 80-100 square miles of Derbyshire which are in the Greenbelt around Manchester and Sheffield. That's on top of the protected area in the Peak District National Park afaics.
By comparison, Leicester, the 3rd of the three Midlands' Cities, has no Green Belt at all.
That is kind of strange when you consider how much development has been going on to the East of Nottingham in the Gedling/Carlton/Netherfield area and also up around Ravenshead and Hucknall, some of which appears to be in that Green Belt land.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Comments
I've not managed to watch it yet; what's caught him out ?
But one does wonder if someone will find the nameplate and fix it to something completely new, so to speak. Like the sort of restored vintage car that leads to expensive lawsuits as to how authentic it is.
He is now faced with documentary evidence that he was told about his duties as an expert witness long before he said was the case.
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
WTAF?
Against those few anomalies, you have both the financial and political cost of revaluing upwards of 20m dwellings for today’s prices.
1) You can't be forced to be an expert witness
2) You can be a 'partisan' but this has less value to the prosecution
3) He was presented as an expert witness, and very strict rules apply to such testimony (as I know from a case I was recently involved in).
I think he's off to spend a long time in jail for multiple cases of contempt of court but I suspect he's very much a patsy...
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
https://x.com/mattuthompson/status/1805900651118964948
Just go for simple land value and apply it nationally.
The national government already decrees care and other responsibilities onto Councils anyway. Just have a single tax, levied nationally, spent nationally. Problem solved. Updates automatically based on land value, no need for regular revaluations.
Perhaps we should revalue properties more often than every 3 decades.
Likewise Greens best ever result is 3.8%, and I think they will beat that but not above 5%, which would be getting on for double last time and I'm sure they would take that.
But last time the pollsters were about right with the Greens, so maybe there is a quiet surge for them.
..The inquiry is shown written evidence from barrister Warwick Tatford, who acted for the Post Office in the trial of wrongly convicted sub-postmaster Seema Misra.
Tatford wrote that he told Jenkins he was "under a duty to provide a full disclosure" of known Horizon errors and bugs to Misra's lawyers at the time of that case.
Jenkins now says he has "no recollection of such a discussion", adding: "I don't believe it would have occurred."...
....The inquiry is shown a document annotated by Jenkins, from 2013, relating to a case against sub-postmistress Kim Wylie.
That document contained a lengthy declaration setting out the legal obligations on being an expert witness.
Underneath it, Jenkins wrote: "Standard stuff. No comment required."
He clarifies to the inquiry lawyer that he meant "I had seen similar stuff before... I didn't think it (those obligations) applied to me, wrongly"...
The issue is a political one because the issue was hidden in 1991 and can't be this time round...
It's not just shifts in voter attitudes. Creating political institutions that reflect those attitudes takes time - so almost inevitably, the choice of parties to vote for today probably never reflects the state of opinions.
Beyond that as a politicians it becomes a question of how big a can of worms do you wish to have opened and thrown at you...
I think he just didn't take his role seriously enough and went along with the crowd he was running with.
'Patsy' is as good word for it.
To suggest otherwise would be highly illiberal.
In other TSE related news, (justified) criticism of Sunak's morning dress.
Sunak's trousers are far too slim for morning dress. Men should consider that clothes are supposed to flatter the shape of your body, not recreate it..
https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1805905107512639725
Or have them raise their own funds for things that are local choices that are not determined nationally, in whatever manner they decide, which is next to nothing nowadays.
The overwhelming majority of Council expenditure is nationally determined obligations. Why should the nation not pay for national obligations?
I find the Alistair Jack story in particularly comical tbh. Maybe he's a lurker here and was just following TSE's tip !
It seems he wasn't the system architect, that was someone else whom we haven't seen.
How come he got pushed forward as the expert witness? He might have technical knowledge but seems completely unsuitable otherwise.
Nonetheless, if you agree to do these things, you have to do it right, so he's going to be in trouble.
Translated: "how dare I be made to pay the correct band of Council Tax?"!
We each had a giggle.
NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Lab lead at 23/ Cons at joint record lowest share since 1978
Labour 42% (-1)
Conservative 19% (-4)
Reform UK 15% (+6) = highest with Ipsos
Lib Dems 11% (+3)
Greens 7% (-2)
1402 GB adults by phone 21-24 Jun
+/- from 31 May- 4 Jun
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1805874453458342221
I didn’t design the council tax system. I’m not intending to vote for the party that did. Maybe they should have designed the system better so revaluations weren’t so costly.
These are guilty, lying, stupid people, being guilty, lying and stupid.
We are supposed to be electing a government, instead half the media have turned into Oliver Cromwell faced with a tray of mince pies
Seriously, there are hundreds of thousands of BigGs the length and breadth of the country. When push comes to shove, they'll vote Conservative.
He bet on Oxford to win by 7 lengths. Oxford were firm favourites.
Some say, that on the day, his steering got strangely sub-optimal when they got more than 7 lengths ahead. They won by 7 lengths.
I'd say if you are at, or expect to be at, cabinet level or above you shouldn't be betting on politics at all. At MP level or above, you shouldn't be betting on your side to do badly. If you know the result you shouldn't be betting. Beyond that I couldn't care much but if it was banned for MPs to bet on politics thats not ridiculous.
This is an enquiry where the euphemism 'economical with the truth' literally applies to most of the witness evidence.
The extent of the lack of recall, and professed lack of understanding, on the part of those involved at all levels of the PO prosecution effort, would be quite remarkable if it hadn't by now become utterly predictable.
Tories picked a fight with Martin Lewis.
Looks to me like they're losing.
On Green Belt, and how capricious and inconsistent it is, I was checking that in our area.
Nottingham and Derby between them have 234 square miles of Greenbelt, which is 1/8 of the total area of the two counties which is 1848 sqm. Plus there are perhaps another 80-100 square miles of Derbyshire which are in the Greenbelt around Manchester and Sheffield. That's on top of the protected area in the Peak District National Park afaics.
By comparison, Leicester, the 3rd of the three Midlands' Cities, has no Green Belt at all.
Cause for reflection.
Interactive Green Belt Map:
https://www.cpre.org.uk/interactive-map-of-englands-green-belt-land/
To say it will end badly is a complete understatement - Martin very much wishes to be seen as independent.
And there are a lot of things that conversation could relate to - Section 21 removal, Labour law alignment with tax are just 2 where I know such are planned.
https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1805916556209086551
But I thought Labour had ruled out adding new council tax bands?
He was a terrible comedian!
Letting him lead himself up the primrose path, then ... "but what about all this stuff you knew about?".
https://electionsetc.com/2024/06/26/breaking-the-swingometer-historical-precedents-for-proportional-change/
Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People... I certainly wouldn't assume that all the ex-Cons are going to go Green - but I think it's maybe a sign as to how deep to the heart of the party the disaffection goes.
Bit like that General in charge at Abu Ghraib claimed half her jail was taken over by the CIA - without any documentation. Without anyone else seeing any CIA guys.
On the other hand I agree that local activity may be important but the Greens have been VERY focused on just four constituencies. Activitists are being discouraged from investing and time and effort anywhere other than those 4. Perhaps that will impact national vote share... Not long to wait now.
There is then the other potential risk (as with athletes) of potentially manipulating outcomes - which seems a lot less likely than in sport, but certainly not impossible. However, has there ever been any evidence of this happening?
Thanks for the responses to my question yesterday.
Starting from the principle that everyone living in a local authority boundary has access to its services, but allowing for adjustments to taxation based on income, feels to me the best way of reforming it. A local income levy essentially. Though how you collect that is the tricky part.
Of course the exit poll (Not available in by-elections) will be a much better guide than whatever he's waffling on about.
I agree that Green performance is one of the more fascinating side-plots in this election, and could have quite an impact on the future direction of the party, especially if it's the shires that deliver rather than the lib-left cities.