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edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence.

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Comments

  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Incumbency bonuses are pretty much a universal feature of all elections in the history of ever. Either the precedent will break or Ashcroft's polling is broken. I'd say the second one.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edmundintokyo said:

    Incumbency bonuses are pretty much a universal feature of all elections in the history of ever. Either the precedent will break or Ashcroft's polling is broken. I'd say the second one.

    Tactical voting, I'd suggest, will more than negate it in many seats.

  • audreyanne
    audreyanne Posts: 1,376
    "One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus."

    I've never heard a single Conservative mention incumbency bonus.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen Projections Countdown :

    150 minutes
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen Projections Countdown :

    150 minutes

    At the crack of dawn, I see.


    ... I'll get my coat.
  • Edin_Rokz
    Edin_Rokz Posts: 516
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen Projections Countdown :

    150 minutes

    At the crack of dawn, I see.


    ... I'll get my coat.
    Leave Dawn out of this.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    audreyanne


    "One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus."

    Try reading Peter Kellner's article from yesterday. It was quoted on here dozens of times and in it he explains how sitting Tory MP's get an incumbency bonus.

    On the other hand you could continue to use your "intuition" or Jack's ARSE as predictive tools. Just because something isn't recognized by the polling council doesn't make it worthless.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT:

    Has George completely taken leave of his senses ? What the point of footling around with trimming a billion from spending here and taxing an extra billion there, and then putting us on the hook for £30bn of funny money ?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11264954/George-Osbornes-secret-plan-to-bail-out-the-eurozone.html

    The Chancellor is putting British taxpayers' money behind Juncker's reckless scheme to insure the eurozone against future financial crises. Why won't he allow Parliament to debate this?

    He points out that someone has to stand behind Jean-Claude Juncker's new InvestEU, and that a major part of the backing comes from Britain. Supposing that Mr Juncker's fund goes bust, we will be liable for up to total of €38 billion euros (£30.2 billion).

    In a scathing article in today's Financial Times, Wolfgang Munchau compares it to "a synthetic collateralised debt obligation – a horridly complicated instrument where the underlying assets were not real. It was an attempt to get from nothing to something."
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Top trolling :)


    @TheScotsman: Today's Scotsman front page: Brown stands down after vow is fulfilled http://t.co/qMuePwzJ5L http://t.co/DTYThJAlGh
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    MikeSmithson said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Incumbency bonuses are pretty much a universal feature of all elections in the history of ever. Either the precedent will break or Ashcroft's polling is broken. I'd say the second one.

    Tactical voting, I'd suggest, will more than negate it in many seats.

    Will the voters know who to tactical-vote for? It's a potentially confusing situation with the LibDems collapsing (except where they're not) and UKIP exploding. This is actually one of the key advantages incumbents have, because it's much easier to work out which candidate holds the seat than to work out who's in second place, especially with the people running third and fourth sending you dodgy bar-charts.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    Has George completely taken leave of his senses ? What the point of footling around with trimming a billion from spending here and taxing an extra billion there, and then putting us on the hook for £30bn of funny money ?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11264954/George-Osbornes-secret-plan-to-bail-out-the-eurozone.html


    The Chancellor is putting British taxpayers' money behind Juncker's reckless scheme to insure the eurozone against future financial crises. Why won't he allow Parliament to debate this?

    He points out that someone has to stand behind Jean-Claude Juncker's new InvestEU, and that a major part of the backing comes from Britain. Supposing that Mr Juncker's fund goes bust, we will be liable for up to total of €38 billion euros (£30.2 billion).

    In a scathing article in today's Financial Times, Wolfgang Munchau compares it to "a synthetic collateralised debt obligation – a horridly complicated instrument where the underlying assets were not real. It was an attempt to get from nothing to something."
    If the EIB was able to find projects for its entire fund (which it won't), and if every single project that the EIB invested in went bust (which it won't), and if no projects made even a single interest payment (which is clearly a ridiculous idea), and if the recovery on those loans was zero (which is even more absurd), then we could theoretically be on the hook for 38bn.

    If you were to ask a private sector insurer to cover your risk, I doubt they'd ask for more than EUR300m or so in total (based on current CDS spreads). And this is ignoring the fact that the EIB of which we are the joint largest shareholder, makes EUR2.5BN a year in profit.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TGOHF said:

    Top trolling :)


    @TheScotsman: Today's Scotsman front page: Brown stands down after vow is fulfilled http://t.co/qMuePwzJ5L http://t.co/DTYThJAlGh

    I thought Brown hung on to milk another 300 grand for doing nothing. How often did he turn up to the HOC over the last 4.5 yrs? or perhaps vote?

    There's one more thing that needs to be achieved, on no account must he have anything to do with the IMF. Brown screwed Britain, he mustn't be allowed to do it to anyone else.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Also, InvestEU invests in projects across the eu, not just in the eurozone
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Presented without comment:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/politics-explained
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Today's poll asks a frequent question:

    Thinking about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government's deficit, do you think this is:
    Having an impact on your own life, or not having an impact on your own life?

    49% (-3) say: Having an Impact
    37% (+4) say: Not having an impact.
    14% (0) say: Don't Know.

    I would suggest that those who say Don't Know in reality have not noticed an impact and thus most probably there has not been one and so 51% do not notice an impact of the spending cuts.

    Thus probably these cuts have not been severe enough
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    On topic - I guess it doesn't matter that so many Tory MPs are standing down then

    Off topic - from memory today's YouGov poll is the first in a long time where the Tories are retaining more of their 2010 voters than Labour (in %age terms). Only one poll ofc
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Patrick said:

    Presented without comment:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/politics-explained

    Its all been debunked as lies

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/
  • Edin_Rokz
    Edin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Previous experience suggests that Tory voters do not vote tacticly, while Labour and LibDems do.

    However, with UKIP as a new flavour on the right giving a viable alternative, will they vote tacticly and why? Or has a decision been made and they won't change until after the GE.

    I still think that many of the UKIP voters are new voters who may have been Conservative minded but couldn't vote for the party for whatever reasons. If so, it means many of the poll results are questionable and cannot be related to polls prior to previous elections.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    SquareRoot said:

    Patrick said:

    Presented without comment:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/politics-explained

    Its all been debunked as lies

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/
    and on the Daily Politics yesterday, which I was quite pleased about. Good to get the facts straight.
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    Also with more government cuts likely the number blaming "the last Labour government" (per YouGov) is as high as it has ever been since early 2012 (37%).

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qfjfwvf31t/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Government Cuts-171114.pdf (page 16)
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    Millsy said:

    On topic - I guess it doesn't matter that so many Tory MPs are standing down then

    Off topic - from memory today's YouGov poll is the first in a long time where the Tories are retaining more of their 2010 voters than Labour (in %age terms). Only one poll ofc

    Yes first time this year, though they had equal retention several times in the last two months.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Thanks Sqaure Root!
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited December 2014
    Roger said:

    A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election

    personal integrity.. The man along with his bully boys like McBride squashed any opposition and fecked the Labour party for a generation.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    SR

    "personal integrity.. The man squashed any opposition and fecked the Labour party for a generation. "

    The trouble with seeing everyting through your blue glasses is that everything gets a cold and mean hue to it.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Talking to colleagues, I think it actually depends on the individual to quite a large extent. In some seats, the new MPs got stuck in with local enthusiasm and have built up a personal vote. In others, the new MPs allowed themselves to be preoccupied with the excitement of Westminster and built up a reputation for not answering constituents' letters promptly etc. - e.g. in one case the MP said in Parliament that no letters opposing privatisation of Royal Mail had been received, when in fact lots were piled up in the office, as yet unread.

    This produced an anti-incumbent swing. In the last year, they've generally worked to address that, and the outright hostility has diminished, but not disappeared. In national terms, it's probably swings and roundabouts, and as Mike suggests, it's not likely to be an overall positive factor this time.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Roger said:

    ...someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse...

    My flabber is truly ghasted! Brown? Integrity? Erm....Draper, Macbride, Nokias, forces of hell, etc ad nauseam. Why do you bother?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election

    If Gordon Brown is our moral lighthouse then we are doomed!

    It is quite noticeable that all Labour Prime Ministers wind up despised by their party, Clement Attlee excepted.

  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Morning all,

    Has there ever been an Autumn Statement like this? We've had days and days of pre-announcements, photo ops and spin. Is it not time the speaker got involved and made clear this stuff is supposed to be made as statement to the House first.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Roger said:

    A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election

    It is a pity he is standing down. Although might be the IMF's gain if LeGuarde decides to go early and rescue France. I saw him speak on several occasions during his glory days during run up to 1997 - a force of nature.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    rottenborough said:

    Morning all,

    Has there ever been an Autumn Statement like this? We've had days and days of pre-announcements, photo ops and spin. Is it not time the speaker got involved and made clear this stuff is supposed to be made as statement to the House first.

    There have been three policies trailed in the press? I don't think it's that much worse than previously.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SquareRoot said:

    Patrick said:

    Presented without comment:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/politics-explained

    Its all been debunked as lies

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/
    Excellent piece of journalism by the Speccy and yet another reflection on the integrity and reliability of those who put those pictures together in the first place. TBH I had pretty much given up on ZeroHedge which looked quite interesting in 2008 as the world fell apart but far too few of whose predictions ever came close.

    Thanks for the link.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger, you problem is that your eyes are misted up with all that champagne socialism. Noone who was around whilst Brown was PM could think anything that he was an unmitigated disaster. If not the worst, it would be difficult to think of a worse Prime Minister.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    edmundintokyo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Incumbency bonuses are pretty much a universal feature of all elections in the history of ever. Either the precedent will break or Ashcroft's polling is broken. I'd say the second one.

    Tactical voting, I'd suggest, will more than negate it in many seats.

    Will the voters know who to tactical-vote for? It's a potentially confusing situation with the LibDems collapsing (except where they're not) and UKIP exploding. This is actually one of the key advantages incumbents have, because it's much easier to work out which candidate holds the seat than to work out who's in second place, especially with the people running third and fourth sending you dodgy bar-charts.
    Yes, and the bar charts may all be truthful too. Look we won the Euros, we 're the challenger in the Locals, we came 2nd at the last GE.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Dozen Projections Countdown :

    50 minutes
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Todays BJESUS

    2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 156 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Every BJESUS

    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
    11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (Ed is crap is PM)
    25.11.14 LAB 319 (319) CON 267(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 31(30) (Ed is crap is PM)
    2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Once a Lib Dem is in place, the red liberals "know" to vote for that one , especially if they are basically ABT voters - the same tactical consideration simply isn't there between UKIP/Con especially I think.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed Miliband is in "serious trouble" and needs sack several members of his shadow cabinet to ensure the loyalty of front-bench team, a damning analysis has found.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11266672/Ed-Miliband-is-in-serious-trouble-and-must-sack-disloyal-members-of-his-shadow-cabinet.html
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SquareRoot said:

    Roger, you problem is that your eyes are misted up with all that champagne socialism. Noone who was around whilst Brown was PM could think anything that he was an unmitigated disaster. If not the worst, it would be difficult to think of a worse Prime Minister.

    As PM he did almost nothing which was a clear improvement on his time as Chancellor where he put us on the road to ruin, a road that tomorrow will once again demonstrate it is a lot easier to get on than to get off.

    Trying really hard I would say that he meant well and, like nearly all politicians, he went into politics intending to do good.

    But I really struggle to think of anyone who so devalued our public discourse, even Blair. His budgets were deceptions and consciously so designed to mislead and misinform. And the damage done is not over. The reannouncement of monies for roads this week was a classic Brownian motion. No doubt there will be more tomorrow.

    Chancellors have never been above politics and rosy eyed spectacles of the past are always a risk but there was once a time, I can recall it, when Chancellors were reasonably straightforward with the figures and tried to inform on the choices. It is legacy to be ashamed of.
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Brown allowed his hatred of the Tories to morph into the ends justifying the means. When that happens judgement and personal integrity inevitably suffers.

    On topic, Mr Smithson finds yet more ammo to stand up his Tories can't win narrative.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    TGOHF said:

    Top trolling :)


    @TheScotsman: Today's Scotsman front page: Brown stands down after vow is fulfilled http://t.co/qMuePwzJ5L http://t.co/DTYThJAlGh

    You could not make that up , what kind of cretins are employed by Scotsman these days.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Steve Richards on Brown:

    "As historians seek to make sense of this complexity they will come to regard him as one of the most significant figures in post-war British politics."

    I agree.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    bigjohnowls said:

    Every BJESUS

    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
    11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (Ed is crap is PM)
    25.11.14 LAB 319 (319) CON 267(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 31(30) (Ed is crap is PM)
    2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)

    You need to knock at least 10 off Labour, and give them to the SNP, IMO.

  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    SquareRoot said:

    TGOHF said:

    Top trolling :)


    @TheScotsman: Today's Scotsman front page: Brown stands down after vow is fulfilled http://t.co/qMuePwzJ5L http://t.co/DTYThJAlGh

    I thought Brown hung on to milk another 300 grand for doing nothing. How often did he turn up to the HOC over the last 4.5 yrs? or perhaps vote?

    There's one more thing that needs to be achieved, on no account must he have anything to do with the IMF. Brown screwed Britain, he mustn't be allowed to do it to anyone else.
    He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    The small first time incumbency boost has become so well-established that I'd expect to see it feature in May.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    DavidL said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Roger, you problem is that your eyes are misted up with all that champagne socialism. Noone who was around whilst Brown was PM could think anything that he was an unmitigated disaster. If not the worst, it would be difficult to think of a worse Prime Minister.

    As PM he did almost nothing which was a clear improvement on his time as Chancellor where he put us on the road to ruin, a road that tomorrow will once again demonstrate it is a lot easier to get on than to get off.

    Trying really hard I would say that he meant well and, like nearly all politicians, he went into politics intending to do good.

    But I really struggle to think of anyone who so devalued our public discourse, even Blair. His budgets were deceptions and consciously so designed to mislead and misinform. And the damage done is not over. The reannouncement of monies for roads this week was a classic Brownian motion. No doubt there will be more tomorrow.

    Chancellors have never been above politics and rosy eyed spectacles of the past are always a risk but there was once a time, I can recall it, when Chancellors were reasonably straightforward with the figures and tried to inform on the choices. It is legacy to be ashamed of.
    I agree, far more damage as Chancellor. Really tragic.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Talking of Blair I think looking at this Christmas card the question has to be, where is Cherie's hand?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/11266690/The-one-where-Tony-pulls-that-face-Tony-Blairs-Christmas-card-is-mocked-on-Twitter.html
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Quite a balanced piece by uber-Tory Quentin Letts (never thought I'd write that!):

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2856857/QUENTIN-LETTS-Brooding-tortured-Brown-man-towering-strengths-match-tragic-flaws.html
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Just taken 3.6 and 3.55 on Betfair GE2015 electoral bias market.

    Lab fewer votes most seats.

    Con most votes. seats is fav at 2.0 (poor value)

    Especially as most seats markets has Con most seats at 2.16
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Scott

    "Ed Miliband is in "serious trouble" and needs sack several members of his shadow cabinet to ensure the loyalty of front-bench team, a damning analysis has found."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11266672/Ed-Miliband-is-in-serious-trouble-and-must-sack-disloyal-members-of-his-shadow-cabinet.html

    If the Telegraph wants to continue to be seen as a serious paper it'll really have to do better than this. Not a single plotter has been named not a single act of disloyalty has been discussed and unless I'm mistaken the article hasn't even credited the author!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good morning, everyone.

    Brown was a bloody disaster, but will go down in history better than Blair. Leftists will defend Brown, but Blair will have very few supporters, left or right.

    Brown will also benefit from following Blair, by way of comparison. Brown didn't have the same sort of 45 minute/Iraq moment.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Roger said:

    Scott

    "Ed Miliband is in "serious trouble" and needs sack several members of his shadow cabinet to ensure the loyalty of front-bench team, a damning analysis has found."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11266672/Ed-Miliband-is-in-serious-trouble-and-must-sack-disloyal-members-of-his-shadow-cabinet.html

    If the Telegraph wants to continue to be seen as a serious paper it'll really have to do better than this. Not a single plotter has been named not a single act of disloyalty has been discussed and unless I'm mistaken the article hasn't even credited the author!

    Possibly at his own request? A very poor effort.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes from 18th November Projection) :

    Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold (From Likely LibDem Hold)
    Ipswich - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
    Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

    Changes From 18 Nov - Pudsey moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Cambridge moves from Likely LibDem Hold to LibDem Hold. Ipswich moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,270
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    DavidL said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Roger, you problem is that your eyes are misted up with all that champagne socialism. Noone who was around whilst Brown was PM could think anything that he was an unmitigated disaster. If not the worst, it would be difficult to think of a worse Prime Minister.

    As PM he did almost nothing which was a clear improvement on his time as Chancellor where he put us on the road to ruin, a road that tomorrow will once again demonstrate it is a lot easier to get on than to get off.

    Trying really hard I would say that he meant well and, like nearly all politicians, he went into politics intending to do good.

    But I really struggle to think of anyone who so devalued our public discourse, even Blair. His budgets were deceptions and consciously so designed to mislead and misinform. And the damage done is not over. The reannouncement of monies for roads this week was a classic Brownian motion. No doubt there will be more tomorrow.

    Chancellors have never been above politics and rosy eyed spectacles of the past are always a risk but there was once a time, I can recall it, when Chancellors were reasonably straightforward with the figures and tried to inform on the choices. It is legacy to be ashamed of.
    I agree, far more damage as Chancellor. Really tragic.
    I wonder if there’s another stick there with which to beat Blair.If he’d not hung on so long (broke the Granita agreement?) Brown wouldn’t have become so embittered and indeed paranoid about people plotting against him.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    When considering Brown's legacy all one needs to do is think about the consequences had the two jokers currently stuffing things up had been in place in 2008.

    I shiver even thinking about it.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Millsy said:

    Also with more government cuts likely the number blaming "the last Labour government" (per YouGov) is as high as it has ever been since early 2012 (37%).

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qfjfwvf31t/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Government Cuts-171114.pdf (page 16)

    That data, plotted over the course of the parliament, would be quite an interesting thing to look at.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    SquareRoot said:

    Roger said:

    A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election

    personal integrity.. The man along with his bully boys like McBride squashed any opposition and fecked the Labour party for a generation.
    Ah, that famous Labour intellectual self-confidence.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Bury North - Likely Con Hold

    Lol no.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    bigjohnowls said:

    Just taken 3.6 and 3.55 on Betfair GE2015 electoral bias market.

    Lab fewer votes most seats.

    Con most votes. seats is fav at 2.0 (poor value)

    Especially as most seats markets has Con most seats at 2.16

    Ooh
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jack - do you think one of your 3 Kippers will be reckless ?

    Interesting that your ARSE is firming on Cambridge - Labour are out to evens, Huppert in to 5/4.

  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morning all, I have been looking at the likely composition of the next government:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-next-government-picking-through.html
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes from 18th November Projection) :

    Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold (From Likely LibDem Hold)
    Ipswich - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
    Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

    Changes From 18 Nov - Pudsey moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Cambridge moves from Likely LibDem Hold to LibDem Hold. Ipswich moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    I see the LibDems are slowly reviving ARSEwise.

  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    rottenborough said:

    Steve Richards on Brown:

    "As historians seek to make sense of this complexity they will come to regard him as one of the most significant figures in post-war British politics."

    I agree.

    I agree, if you mean a significant negative figure.

    As CoE he twisted, changed, concocted numbers to suit his narrative, he employed deceit and chicanery to an extent unseen in previous CoEs.

    He was unsuited to the role of Leader and PM, as he gathered more power over the years, like so many who gain power, his personality diverted from his default position to one that was over run with paranoia, fear and an inability to perform at the highest level. He lost his moral compass, his honesty, his integrity, his decision making, respect for others and much much more, as he believed his own hubris and in his own infallibility. As a country we will be paying for that for a generation or two.

    History, I anticipate will see him as a poor CoE and dire PM. Only time will tell, the poor and dire may be reversed.

    Away from power he comes over as a very different person, and one who shows signs of regaining some semblance of normality and decency.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    Jack - do you think one of your 3 Kippers will be reckless ?

    Interesting that your ARSE is firming on Cambridge - Labour are out to evens, Huppert in to 5/4.

    Outside of the JackW Dozen I'll broadly not be giving a running commentary on other seats but as it's highly topical one might consider the Ukip 3 may not be a reckless group.

    Cambridge is trending back to the yellow peril and looking more comfortable than a few months back. Should this trend continue it'll be a very comfortable HOLD for Huppert.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    @Bigjohnowls I've just stuck up £110 @ 3.1 in this market, let me know if you want it and I'll push it out to 3.55 for you :)
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Just taken 3.6 and 3.55 on Betfair GE2015 electoral bias market.

    Lab fewer votes most seats.

    Con most votes. seats is fav at 2.0 (poor value)

    Especially as most seats markets has Con most seats at 2.16

    Ooh
    Have you got even better odds on con most votes lab most seats?

    I remember you have been tipping this for some time
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Most likely kippr is Carswell (Clacton)
    Then Robin Hunter-Clarke (Boston)
    Then probably Tim Aker I'd say (Thurrock), though some may argue Farage. Tricky to call who gets the 3rd kipper seat.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    @foxinsoxuk said :

    "I see the LibDems are slowly reviving ARSEwise."

    ............................................................................

    A number of the LibDem seats are right at the margin of TCTC. In todays projection 2 seats that helped bump up their score were fewer than 50 vote holds.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Antifrank, an interesting piece. Some of the possibilities you consider do make me think a second election could happen.
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Roger said:

    Scott

    "Ed Miliband is in "serious trouble" and needs sack several members of his shadow cabinet to ensure the loyalty of front-bench team, a damning analysis has found."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11266672/Ed-Miliband-is-in-serious-trouble-and-must-sack-disloyal-members-of-his-shadow-cabinet.html

    If the Telegraph wants to continue to be seen as a serious paper it'll really have to do better than this. Not a single plotter has been named not a single act of disloyalty has been discussed and unless I'm mistaken the article hasn't even credited the author!

    The opinion of some bod at a university, that's all.

    It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    OldKingCole said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    DavidL said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Roger, you problem is that your eyes are misted up with all that champagne socialism. Noone who was around whilst Brown was PM could think anything that he was an unmitigated disaster. If not the worst, it would be difficult to think of a worse Prime Minister.

    As PM he did almost nothing which was a clear improvement on his time as Chancellor where he put us on the road to ruin, a road that tomorrow will once again demonstrate it is a lot easier to get on than to get off.

    Trying really hard I would say that he meant well and, like nearly all politicians, he went into politics intending to do good.

    But I really struggle to think of anyone who so devalued our public discourse, even Blair. His budgets were deceptions and consciously so designed to mislead and misinform. And the damage done is not over. The reannouncement of monies for roads this week was a classic Brownian motion. No doubt there will be more tomorrow.

    Chancellors have never been above politics and rosy eyed spectacles of the past are always a risk but there was once a time, I can recall it, when Chancellors were reasonably straightforward with the figures and tried to inform on the choices. It is legacy to be ashamed of.
    I agree, far more damage as Chancellor. Really tragic.
    I wonder if there’s another stick there with which to beat Blair.If he’d not hung on so long (broke the Granita agreement?) Brown wouldn’t have become so embittered and indeed paranoid about people plotting against him.
    He was a brooder, fraught with grievances against the English smoothie Blair. He was difficult, contradictory, a broiling bruiser. He was as complex, deep, unhappy, as a Rachmaninov symphony. Not a great Prime Minister, no. But a fascinating study of a man.
    Anthony Charles Lynton Blair, Born in Edinburgh educated at Fettes College in Edinburgh, son of a father adopted and and brought up in Scotland. He must have as much claim to be as Scot as many people.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Just taken 3.6 and 3.55 on Betfair GE2015 electoral bias market.

    Lab fewer votes most seats.

    Con most votes. seats is fav at 2.0 (poor value)

    Especially as most seats markets has Con most seats at 2.16

    Ooh
    Have you got even better odds on con most votes lab most seats?

    I remember you have been tipping this for some time
    I have a big green on this yes so I can lay off at 3.0 - 4.0 for a profit.

    The 3.1 available is mine, it's not a great price but someone may bite.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited December 2014
    Labour minority available at 7-1 with Hills. Have just topped up off the back of Antifrank's piece.

    There is also the "Any SNP coalition" available at 13-2. That is a terrible bet.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Indigo said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    DavidL said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Roger, you problem is that your eyes are misted up with all that champagne socialism. Noone who was around whilst Brown was PM could think anything that he was an unmitigated disaster. If not the worst, it would be difficult to think of a worse Prime Minister.

    As PM he did almost nothing which was a clear improvement on his time as Chancellor where he put us on the road to ruin, a road that tomorrow will once again demonstrate it is a lot easier to get on than to get off.

    Trying really hard I would say that he meant well and, like nearly all politicians, he went into politics intending to do good.

    But I really struggle to think of anyone who so devalued our public discourse, even Blair. His budgets were deceptions and consciously so designed to mislead and misinform. And the damage done is not over. The reannouncement of monies for roads this week was a classic Brownian motion. No doubt there will be more tomorrow.

    Chancellors have never been above politics and rosy eyed spectacles of the past are always a risk but there was once a time, I can recall it, when Chancellors were reasonably straightforward with the figures and tried to inform on the choices. It is legacy to be ashamed of.
    I agree, far more damage as Chancellor. Really tragic.
    I wonder if there’s another stick there with which to beat Blair.If he’d not hung on so long (broke the Granita agreement?) Brown wouldn’t have become so embittered and indeed paranoid about people plotting against him.
    He was a brooder, fraught with grievances against the English smoothie Blair. He was difficult, contradictory, a broiling bruiser. He was as complex, deep, unhappy, as a Rachmaninov symphony. Not a great Prime Minister, no. But a fascinating study of a man.
    Anthony Charles Lynton Blair, Born in Edinburgh educated at Fettes College in Edinburgh, son of a father adopted and and brought up in Scotland. He must have as much claim to be as Scot as many people.


    Blair may have become increasingly aware that Brown would not make a good leader and found it difficult to see why he should stand aside for him.

    That's the impression I get from Rawnsley and Blair's autobiography. Brown's take on matters I am less familiar with.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    VAT is going up ?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    On the EU VAT nonsense (#vatmess): this isn't the most serious aspect but if you're thinking of buying e-books you should do so this month. In January Amazon's altering its pricing approach, which, concisely, means the costs are going to go up. Not by a huge amount, but if you're buying lots of books an expensive one, may as well save yourself a few quid and buy early.

    Hoping things will (price rise aside) remain more or less as is from my perspective. Still counter-productive and utterly unfair on small businesses selling direct, though. The law's incredibly badly written.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Pulpstar said:

    Bury North - Likely Con Hold

    Lol no.

    Agreed Jack W predicts net Tory gains on 2010.

    no chance IMO
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Remember Major's: "You can only be sure with the Conservatives"?

    Sure that they'll increase VAT, because they always do.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    VAT is going up ?
    22.5% if Jack W is right.

    Mansion tax if i am.
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    VAT is going up ?
    22.5% if Jack W is right.

    Mansion tax if i am.
    OK, so lets see who can think up the most vindictive politically motivated tax change. Brown managed to reduce the PMs salary and have 50% for a month. Both pretty cynical.

    To start the ball rolling how about making all Union levies subject to VAT?

    There is a nice vindictive targeted political action.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    VAT is going up ?
    22.5% if Jack W is right.

    Mansion tax if i am.
    Oh ffsake do they have to - 1/6 was a nice easy fraction, 9/49s is a pain the arse.
  • HHemmelig
    HHemmelig Posts: 617
    I am very seldom moved to post here, preferring to lurk, but I'm very surprised no-one else has commented what a poor feel JackW appears to have for the London seats in his "JackW dozen".

    To suggest Enfield North will be anything like "too close to call" is utterly absurd. Anyone who knows the area will tell you that the significant change in demographics alone pretty much guarantee a Labour majority of 5000 or so.

    Croydon Central is also more than likely a Labour gain, reflecting demographic change and a strong UKIP in the WWC parts of the seat (specifically New Addington). If it is a Tory hold it will be a very narrow scrape, not a majority of 2500 or more.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Welcome (back?) to pb.com, Mr. Hemmelig.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SandyRentool said:

    Remember Major's: "You can only be sure with the Conservatives"?

    Sure that they'll increase VAT, because they always do.

    Heath/Barber reduced it from 10% to 8% in 1974.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes from 18th November Projection) :

    Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold (From Likely LibDem Hold)
    Ipswich - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
    Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

    Changes From 18 Nov - Pudsey moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Cambridge moves from Likely LibDem Hold to LibDem Hold. Ipswich moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    While I always appreciate your shapely ARSE, I think Cambridge is no better than a "Likely LibDem Hold", and if the local Labour Party gets its - less shapely - arse in gear then Hubbert will be lucky to hang on. (The Labour Party in Cambridge has shown absolutely no evidence of getting its act together to date, however.)

    Watford will not be a LibDem gain. although Dorothy will garner a big personal vote, and may be good second.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    HHemmelig said:

    I am very seldom moved to post here, preferring to lurk, but I'm very surprised no-one else has commented what a poor feel JackW appears to have for the London seats in his "JackW dozen".

    To suggest Enfield North will be anything like "too close to call" is utterly absurd. Anyone who knows the area will tell you that the significant change in demographics alone pretty much guarantee a Labour majority of 5000 or so.

    Croydon Central is also more than likely a Labour gain, reflecting demographic change and a strong UKIP in the WWC parts of the seat (specifically New Addington). If it is a Tory hold it will be a very narrow scrape, not a majority of 2500 or more.

    Gavin Barwell is a friend of mine (and therefore I am completely biased); he is an excellent local MP, and I wouldn't be surprised if he hung on.
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Interesting that both Blair and Brown are already held in such low regard, except perhaps by the Cameroons.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Birmingham school siphoned off UK taxpayers' money to a school in Pakistan:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2855834/Cash-strapped-Islamic-academy-charity-spent-1m-taxpayers-cash-building-school-Pakistan.html
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    Can you Baxter that for me?
  • ChokinVase
    ChokinVase Posts: 67
    edited December 2014
    Re Gordon Brown and the current quasi-eulogising coming from some quarters. His biggest effective legacy is twofold. Firstly, spending so freely during the good times. I can't actually blame him for this as I suspect every politician in his shoes would have done the same. Awful, of course, but something that would have happened anyway, sadly.

    The second thing is Tax Credits: a damaging way to distort the tax system and affect people's cost/benefit analyses of their own situations. I would have greatly preferred the equivalent money to have been used on the tax thresholds or rates or some combination of those. It would have been blunter, but much clearer and in my opinion more in tune with how taxation should function. By creating credits, you create the impression in unsophisticated people that the government is giving you money (perpetuating state dependence/control/Labour voting client groups) and that is to me a very strange way to perceive the relationship between individual and state. It also created perverse behavioural incentives which continue to cause issues today. Finally, it's incredibly difficult to reverse, politically, even in a very gradual phased way
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Pudsey is TCTC I think too, as much as I'd like it to be a CON gain from a betting perspective.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    BannedInParis said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    Can you Baxter that for me?
    I would if I could but GE 2015 will pronounce a judgement i think
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BannedInParis said:

    "It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago."

    How is Zero-Zero going?

    How is were all in it together going titter

    or no ifs no buts titter

    or no top down reorganisation of NHS

    or no plans to increase VAT

    I notice the latter is back
    Can you Baxter that for me?
    I would if I could but GE 2015 will pronounce a judgement i think
    In your forecasts, up SNP to at least 16 mate :) "Others" is too low.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    F1: just stuck some on Hamilton at 1.91. Rosberg's the better value at 4.7 (both Betfair) but, if I'm right about it being a two horse race, it's safety fast. I'm flat for Hamilton, green for Rosberg, and have reduced the stake of my hedge (same odds, 3) on Rosberg.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited December 2014
    Malc


    "He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."

    Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.

    Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    What is your current overall forecast for GE 2015 Pulpstar?

    I think your last one was slightly closer to my BJESUS than Jacks ARSE where are you now?

    You might be right about others as I have only forecast 5 SNP gains.

    Could be easily 10 but i don't go for many more unless polling next April/May still shows massive swing LAB to SNP

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Voting intentions poll shows LAB 31%, CON 30%, UKIP 19%, LIB DEM 6%, GREEN 6%, OTHER 8%

    The latest TNS poll suggests that there is all to play for ahead of the May 2015 General Election with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck. Currently 31% of people plan to vote for the Labour party whereas 30% plan to vote for the Conservative party. Furthermore, when asked what the likely outcome of the next election will be opinion is also very divided amongst those who were felt able to answer:

    17% think Labour will have a majority
    16% think the Conservative party will have a majority
    24% think that no party will have an overall majority but that Labour will be the biggest party
    31% think that no party will have an overall majority but that the Conservative party will be the biggest party

    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/public-opinion-monitor-tight-race-between-conservative-and-labour
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