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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents
One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence.
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I've never heard a single Conservative mention incumbency bonus.
150 minutes
... I'll get my coat.
"One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus."
Try reading Peter Kellner's article from yesterday. It was quoted on here dozens of times and in it he explains how sitting Tory MP's get an incumbency bonus.
On the other hand you could continue to use your "intuition" or Jack's ARSE as predictive tools. Just because something isn't recognized by the polling council doesn't make it worthless.
Has George completely taken leave of his senses ? What the point of footling around with trimming a billion from spending here and taxing an extra billion there, and then putting us on the hook for £30bn of funny money ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11264954/George-Osbornes-secret-plan-to-bail-out-the-eurozone.html
@TheScotsman: Today's Scotsman front page: Brown stands down after vow is fulfilled http://t.co/qMuePwzJ5L http://t.co/DTYThJAlGh
If you were to ask a private sector insurer to cover your risk, I doubt they'd ask for more than EUR300m or so in total (based on current CDS spreads). And this is ignoring the fact that the EIB of which we are the joint largest shareholder, makes EUR2.5BN a year in profit.
There's one more thing that needs to be achieved, on no account must he have anything to do with the IMF. Brown screwed Britain, he mustn't be allowed to do it to anyone else.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/politics-explained
Today's poll asks a frequent question:
Thinking about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government's deficit, do you think this is:
Having an impact on your own life, or not having an impact on your own life?
49% (-3) say: Having an Impact
37% (+4) say: Not having an impact.
14% (0) say: Don't Know.
I would suggest that those who say Don't Know in reality have not noticed an impact and thus most probably there has not been one and so 51% do not notice an impact of the spending cuts.
Thus probably these cuts have not been severe enough
Off topic - from memory today's YouGov poll is the first in a long time where the Tories are retaining more of their 2010 voters than Labour (in %age terms). Only one poll ofc
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/
However, with UKIP as a new flavour on the right giving a viable alternative, will they vote tacticly and why? Or has a decision been made and they won't change until after the GE.
I still think that many of the UKIP voters are new voters who may have been Conservative minded but couldn't vote for the party for whatever reasons. If so, it means many of the poll results are questionable and cannot be related to polls prior to previous elections.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qfjfwvf31t/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Government Cuts-171114.pdf (page 16)
"personal integrity.. The man squashed any opposition and fecked the Labour party for a generation. "
The trouble with seeing everyting through your blue glasses is that everything gets a cold and mean hue to it.
This produced an anti-incumbent swing. In the last year, they've generally worked to address that, and the outright hostility has diminished, but not disappeared. In national terms, it's probably swings and roundabouts, and as Mike suggests, it's not likely to be an overall positive factor this time.
It is quite noticeable that all Labour Prime Ministers wind up despised by their party, Clement Attlee excepted.
Has there ever been an Autumn Statement like this? We've had days and days of pre-announcements, photo ops and spin. Is it not time the speaker got involved and made clear this stuff is supposed to be made as statement to the House first.
Thanks for the link.
50 minutes
2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 156 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (Ed is crap is PM)
25.11.14 LAB 319 (319) CON 267(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 31(30) (Ed is crap is PM)
2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
Trying really hard I would say that he meant well and, like nearly all politicians, he went into politics intending to do good.
But I really struggle to think of anyone who so devalued our public discourse, even Blair. His budgets were deceptions and consciously so designed to mislead and misinform. And the damage done is not over. The reannouncement of monies for roads this week was a classic Brownian motion. No doubt there will be more tomorrow.
Chancellors have never been above politics and rosy eyed spectacles of the past are always a risk but there was once a time, I can recall it, when Chancellors were reasonably straightforward with the figures and tried to inform on the choices. It is legacy to be ashamed of.
On topic, Mr Smithson finds yet more ammo to stand up his Tories can't win narrative.
"As historians seek to make sense of this complexity they will come to regard him as one of the most significant figures in post-war British politics."
I agree.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/11266690/The-one-where-Tony-pulls-that-face-Tony-Blairs-Christmas-card-is-mocked-on-Twitter.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2856857/QUENTIN-LETTS-Brooding-tortured-Brown-man-towering-strengths-match-tragic-flaws.html
Lab fewer votes most seats.
Con most votes. seats is fav at 2.0 (poor value)
Especially as most seats markets has Con most seats at 2.16
"Ed Miliband is in "serious trouble" and needs sack several members of his shadow cabinet to ensure the loyalty of front-bench team, a damning analysis has found."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11266672/Ed-Miliband-is-in-serious-trouble-and-must-sack-disloyal-members-of-his-shadow-cabinet.html
If the Telegraph wants to continue to be seen as a serious paper it'll really have to do better than this. Not a single plotter has been named not a single act of disloyalty has been discussed and unless I'm mistaken the article hasn't even credited the author!
Brown was a bloody disaster, but will go down in history better than Blair. Leftists will defend Brown, but Blair will have very few supporters, left or right.
Brown will also benefit from following Blair, by way of comparison. Brown didn't have the same sort of 45 minute/Iraq moment.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes from 18th November Projection) :
Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold (From Likely LibDem Hold)
Ipswich - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain
Changes From 18 Nov - Pudsey moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Cambridge moves from Likely LibDem Hold to LibDem Hold. Ipswich moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
I shiver even thinking about it.
Lol no.
Interesting that your ARSE is firming on Cambridge - Labour are out to evens, Huppert in to 5/4.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-next-government-picking-through.html
As CoE he twisted, changed, concocted numbers to suit his narrative, he employed deceit and chicanery to an extent unseen in previous CoEs.
He was unsuited to the role of Leader and PM, as he gathered more power over the years, like so many who gain power, his personality diverted from his default position to one that was over run with paranoia, fear and an inability to perform at the highest level. He lost his moral compass, his honesty, his integrity, his decision making, respect for others and much much more, as he believed his own hubris and in his own infallibility. As a country we will be paying for that for a generation or two.
History, I anticipate will see him as a poor CoE and dire PM. Only time will tell, the poor and dire may be reversed.
Away from power he comes over as a very different person, and one who shows signs of regaining some semblance of normality and decency.
Cambridge is trending back to the yellow peril and looking more comfortable than a few months back. Should this trend continue it'll be a very comfortable HOLD for Huppert.
I remember you have been tipping this for some time
Then Robin Hunter-Clarke (Boston)
Then probably Tim Aker I'd say (Thurrock), though some may argue Farage. Tricky to call who gets the 3rd kipper seat.
"I see the LibDems are slowly reviving ARSEwise."
............................................................................
A number of the LibDem seats are right at the margin of TCTC. In todays projection 2 seats that helped bump up their score were fewer than 50 vote holds.
It also says that the "One Nation" slogan is failing to resonate. An astute observation, given that it was dropped weeks ago.
The 3.1 available is mine, it's not a great price but someone may bite.
There is also the "Any SNP coalition" available at 13-2. That is a terrible bet.
Blair may have become increasingly aware that Brown would not make a good leader and found it difficult to see why he should stand aside for him.
That's the impression I get from Rawnsley and Blair's autobiography. Brown's take on matters I am less familiar with.
How is Zero-Zero going?
or no ifs no buts titter
or no top down reorganisation of NHS
or no plans to increase VAT
I notice the latter is back
Hoping things will (price rise aside) remain more or less as is from my perspective. Still counter-productive and utterly unfair on small businesses selling direct, though. The law's incredibly badly written.
no chance IMO
Sure that they'll increase VAT, because they always do.
Mansion tax if i am.
To start the ball rolling how about making all Union levies subject to VAT?
There is a nice vindictive targeted political action.
To suggest Enfield North will be anything like "too close to call" is utterly absurd. Anyone who knows the area will tell you that the significant change in demographics alone pretty much guarantee a Labour majority of 5000 or so.
Croydon Central is also more than likely a Labour gain, reflecting demographic change and a strong UKIP in the WWC parts of the seat (specifically New Addington). If it is a Tory hold it will be a very narrow scrape, not a majority of 2500 or more.
Watford will not be a LibDem gain. although Dorothy will garner a big personal vote, and may be good second.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2855834/Cash-strapped-Islamic-academy-charity-spent-1m-taxpayers-cash-building-school-Pakistan.html
The second thing is Tax Credits: a damaging way to distort the tax system and affect people's cost/benefit analyses of their own situations. I would have greatly preferred the equivalent money to have been used on the tax thresholds or rates or some combination of those. It would have been blunter, but much clearer and in my opinion more in tune with how taxation should function. By creating credits, you create the impression in unsophisticated people that the government is giving you money (perpetuating state dependence/control/Labour voting client groups) and that is to me a very strange way to perceive the relationship between individual and state. It also created perverse behavioural incentives which continue to cause issues today. Finally, it's incredibly difficult to reverse, politically, even in a very gradual phased way
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
I think your last one was slightly closer to my BJESUS than Jacks ARSE where are you now?
You might be right about others as I have only forecast 5 SNP gains.
Could be easily 10 but i don't go for many more unless polling next April/May still shows massive swing LAB to SNP
The latest TNS poll suggests that there is all to play for ahead of the May 2015 General Election with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck. Currently 31% of people plan to vote for the Labour party whereas 30% plan to vote for the Conservative party. Furthermore, when asked what the likely outcome of the next election will be opinion is also very divided amongst those who were felt able to answer:
17% think Labour will have a majority
16% think the Conservative party will have a majority
24% think that no party will have an overall majority but that Labour will be the biggest party
31% think that no party will have an overall majority but that the Conservative party will be the biggest party
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/public-opinion-monitor-tight-race-between-conservative-and-labour