F1: just rumours, but some reckon Renault will make up the 70bhp (I had heard it was a lot more) to the Mercedes of 2014 next year.
Unfortunately, Mercedes are reckoned to have another 60bhp of gains as well.
Ferrari (engine as well as team) *may* be in trouble if they can't match that. Aerodynamically, they've been behind Red Bull and Mercedes, and they get murdered by Williams on every straight going. If the Honda is pretty good, Ferrari might be looking at 5th next season.
On the plus side for the Tifosi, James Allison should have more of a hand in designing their current car, and the 2015 Red Bull will be the last Newey-designed F1 car. Red Bull won't fall off a cliff in 2016, but having lost Prodromou to McLaren and Newey leaving F1, they could fall back.
I'd not seen Sadiq Khan's estimate that 17 seats were at risk for Labour before. That does sound like an attempt to scare the disaffected back into the fold.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Voting intentions poll shows LAB 31%, CON 30%, UKIP 19%, LIB DEM 6%, GREEN 6%, OTHER 8%
The latest TNS poll suggests that there is all to play for ahead of the May 2015 General Election with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck. Currently 31% of people plan to vote for the Labour party whereas 30% plan to vote for the Conservative party. Furthermore, when asked what the likely outcome of the next election will be opinion is also very divided amongst those who were felt able to answer:
17% think Labour will have a majority 16% think the Conservative party will have a majority 24% think that no party will have an overall majority but that Labour will be the biggest party 31% think that no party will have an overall majority but that the Conservative party will be the biggest party
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
When I get a little carried away in my contempt for Brown's record as Chancellor my Scottish Labour party friends always bring up memories of the young Brown and the force that he was in both Scottish Labour and Scotland more generally.
As I somewhat grudgingly acknowledged a lot earlier this morning there is no question that he went into politics for the right reasons and with a genuine desire to help the disadvantaged. To some extent I think that was reflected in what he achieved in relation to third world debt at Gleneagles and afterwards, probably the best thing he did as Chancellor.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
Roger, Dear Dear , Brown spent all his efforts on his own self aggrandisement. He used every dubious and underhand tactic in the book to wreck opponents lives and careers to ensure he got what he wanted, and as we know he was crap at it. Still a self important useless windbag , full of wind and piss and useless.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Seems legit.
Kellner must be right then UNS is fooked?
Yes to some extent.
I think putting GB wide polls into Baxter is a mistake if the Separatist surge in North Britain continues until the election
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
Roger, Dear Dear , Brown spent all his efforts on his own self aggrandisement. He used every dubious and underhand tactic in the book to wreck opponents lives and careers to ensure he got what he wanted, and as we know he was crap at it. Still a self important useless windbag , full of wind and piss and useless.
What does it say about Scotland and Alex Salmond that they were bested by a useless windbag full of wind and piss and useless in the indyref?
Also, Malcolm, the first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club
QUestion - Would Rochester be a CON Hold or gain ?
Usually the gain/loss/hold means relative to the last GE, or to the notional result at the last GE, if there are any boundary changes. No boundary changes this time, of course.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Seems legit.
I think i will legit to Cineworld.
Seriously though obviously SNP surge if sustained seriously undermines UNS.
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
Re Gordon Brown and the current quasi-eulogising coming from some quarters. His biggest effective legacy is twofold. Firstly, spending so freely during the good times. I can't actually blame him for this as I suspect every politician in his shoes would have done the same. Awful, of course, but something that would have happened anyway, sadly.
The second thing is Tax Credits: a damaging way to distort the tax system and affect people's cost/benefit analyses of their own situations. I would have greatly preferred the equivalent money to have been used on the tax thresholds or rates or some combination of those. It would have been blunter, but much clearer and in my opinion more in tune with how taxation should function. By creating credits, you create the impression in unsophisticated people that the government is giving you money (perpetuating state dependence/control/Labour voting client groups) and that is to me a very strange way to perceive the relationship between individual and state. It also created perverse behavioural incentives which continue to cause issues today. Finally, it's incredibly difficult to reverse, politically, even in a very gradual phased way
Your point about tax credits is very good. Most people receive some sort of government hand out. They pay for defence for example, and most people are net beneficiaries. Of course it's not 'the government' which is paying for that though - it's the mansion owner, the banks, the big businesses. In fact the people most demonised are precisely those on who we rely for supporting the system.
I'm not sure that you're right that no politician would have avoided the Brown splurge. In the late 80s the Tories did after all have a period when they were repaying government debt.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Seems legit.
I think i will legit to Cineworld.
Seriously though obviously SNP surge if sustained seriously undermines UNS.
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
You hope it doesn't impact, it could well do.
If you're at Cineworld, go see Paddington and Horrible Bosses 2.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Seems legit.
I think i will legit to Cineworld.
Seriously though obviously SNP surge if sustained seriously undermines UNS.
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
If the SNP do very well it is at the expense of Labour seats - seeing as they only care about Scotland any claims of "unfairness" in them propping up a Lab Minority (Even if they say have 1 less seat than the Tories) will fall on completely deaf ears.
I think you're wrong on a Labour-Lib Dem deal. First of all, if the Lib Dems lost half their seats, Clegg will resign, removing the biggest block. Farron would replace him, and likely repudiate a lot of Clegg's policies.
But can you imagine Miliband and Farron as PM and DPM? It would be the most pathetically limp-wristed pair of wets.
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Seems legit.
I think i will legit to Cineworld.
Seriously though obviously SNP surge if sustained seriously undermines UNS.
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
You hope it doesn't impact, it could well do.
If you're at Cineworld, go see Paddington and Horrible Bosses 2.
I am seeing The Drop and What we do in the Shadows.
I deemed to see my first kids film for a decade last month TMNT big mistake (despite your Harem participant) So dont think I can BEAR to see Paddington.
Will see horrible bosses this week at some point.
Is there a Cineworld anywhere near BBC HQ in Manchester as am off for another The Voice Recording tomorrrow?
The only party in Scotland that can get away with being the conservatives is the Conservative party.
The collapse in Lib Dem support immediately after the GE there and now in Labour support after the indy ref is because both the reds and yellows had to get into bed with the blues there.
Meanwhile Scottish Tories will vote Tory, twas ever thus (They haven't suffered at all really so far as I can tell from being the senior partner in the coalition or from lumping in with Labour on the indy ref)
This is why you can absolutely rule out c&s for the CONs from the SNP I think. The most the SNP will do for the Conservatives is abstain from their fundamental measures I think.
A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election
Mr. Owls, Other 31 on that poll seems off, given the SNP could have more than that by themselves (unlikely but not impossible) and UKIP on 19% would suggest several gains, as well as Plaid and the Northern Ireland parties.
Of that 31, 18 are Northern Bogtrotters, so that leaves 13 seats for Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP, Greens combined.
Seems legit.
I think i will legit to Cineworld.
Seriously though obviously SNP surge if sustained seriously undermines UNS.
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
You hope it doesn't impact, it could well do.
If you're at Cineworld, go see Paddington and Horrible Bosses 2.
I am seeing The Drop and What we do in the Shadows.
I deemed to see my first kids film for a decade last month TMNT big mistake (despite your Harem participant) So dont think I can BEAR to see Paddington.
Will see horrible bosses this week at some point.
Is there a Cineworld anywhere near BBC HQ in Manchester as am off for another The Voice Recording tomorrrow?
I said TMNT was crap and the only redeeming feature was Ms Fox.
But Paddington is the best British movie ever, the Kippers hate it as it the story of a Brown coloured illegal immigrant to this country, who keeps his head covered, and changes the life of an English family.
Plus it has Nicole Kidman in it.
The nearest cineworld's round Manchester are in Didsbury, Stockport and Ashton, I'd recommend the latter one.
A great pity Gordon is standing down. Despite his various frailties someone with his obvious personal integrity shines out like a lighthouse. I hope he continues to take an interst in Scottish politics where he's still a collossus and could be very useful to Labour at the next election
Integrity? The man who employed a spin doctor to smear the wives of his opponents.
And don't accuse me of wearing "blue glasses". A number of Labour women were appalled by that - as any decent person would be - and one former Labour MP, Alice Mahon, reportedly resigned from the Labour party in disgust.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes from 18th November Projection) :
Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Likely Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC) Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold (From Likely LibDem Hold) Ipswich - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC) Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold Enfield - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain
Changes From 18 Nov - Pudsey moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Cambridge moves from Likely LibDem Hold to LibDem Hold. Ipswich moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
While I always appreciate your shapely ARSE, I think Cambridge is no better than a "Likely LibDem Hold", and if the local Labour Party gets its - less shapely - arse in gear then Hubbert will be lucky to hang on. (The Labour Party in Cambridge has shown absolutely no evidence of getting its act together to date, however.)
Watford will not be a LibDem gain. although Dorothy will garner a big personal vote, and may be good second.
You are badly in error in both cases.
I confess my choice of Cambridge as a vulnerable LibDem seat was on reflection a less than stellar choice. All the intel going into my ARSE now show a very comfortable hold for Huppert that will especially indicate a large first term incumbency bounce for this locally extremely high profile yellow perilist.
As for Watford your esteemed father and I are as one on this constituency and accordingly when OGH and JackW concur then no force of nature may stop the inevitable result that this Hertfordshire seat will become the only LibDem GAIN of election night.
"Ed Miliband is in "serious trouble" and needs sack several members of his shadow cabinet to ensure the loyalty of front-bench team, a damning analysis has found."
If the Telegraph wants to continue to be seen as a serious paper it'll really have to do better than this. Not a single plotter has been named not a single act of disloyalty has been discussed and unless I'm mistaken the article hasn't even credited the author!
The Telegraph's weak, tendentious political reporting puts its future in jeopardy, a damning analysis has found. [Insert Roger's bio]
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
Roger, Dear Dear , Brown spent all his efforts on his own self aggrandisement. He used every dubious and underhand tactic in the book to wreck opponents lives and careers to ensure he got what he wanted, and as we know he was crap at it. Still a self important useless windbag , full of wind and piss and useless.
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
COM RES. The Green surge continues. I keep telling you fracking will decide the next election. Like I told you about UKIP's coming a few years ago. If UKIP would go Green, they'd be home and dry. Farage must move green now or he'll choke.
COM RES. The Green surge continues. I keep telling you fracking will decide the next election. Like I told you about UKIP's coming a few years ago. If UKIP would go Green, they'd be home and dry. Farage must move green now or he'll choke.
Ironic as the green rise has coincided with the shrug of indifference towards green issues from the majority. Global Climate change conferences are now media non events.
Like Kipperology and Nattery, greenism is more religious than political - but do their aims overlap - can the Kippers tell a story that mass immigration is bad for the carbon footprint ?
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Thatcher was regarded highly on the international stage. Gordo outside ex-pats in Harvard and on the left in France is rightly ignored.
WRT Enfield North, I doubt if Labour will win it by 5,000 in May, but I'd make them favourites to win it. Over the past 10 years, the groups that were most likely to vote Conservative (white British, working and lower middle class voters) have moved out at a very rapid rate. Wards that were either safe for the Conservatives (Turkey Street) or marginal (Enfield Wash, Enfield Lock) are now safe for Labour.
The second thing is Tax Credits: a damaging way to distort the tax system and affect people's cost/benefit analyses of their own situations. I would have greatly preferred the equivalent money to have been used on the tax thresholds or rates or some combination of those. It would have been blunter, but much clearer and in my opinion more in tune with how taxation should function. By creating credits, you create the impression in unsophisticated people that the government is giving you money (perpetuating state dependence/control/Labour voting client groups) and that is to me a very strange way to perceive the relationship between individual and state. It also created perverse behavioural incentives which continue to cause issues today. Finally, it's incredibly difficult to reverse, politically, even in a very gradual phased way
I regard tax credits as New Labour's single best policy. The premise of tackling poverty by giving the poorest more money is a delightfully simple and effective concept. If anything, they didn't go far enough.
The name is a shameless bit of double-speak stolen from the Americans, who have had the Earned Income Tax Credit since 1975.
For all your grumbling about "state dependence", it's traditionally a right-wing policy, and was originally mooted as an alternative to the right's proposal for a broader Negative Income Tax. I suspect it's the only major economic policy that New Labour took taken wholesale from the Republican Party.
These days, the right likes to pretend either that the problem doesn't exist, that the poor deserve it, or that it's not their problem.
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
The porn master generals can go fuck themselves if they're listening.
I don't think that would be permitted under the rules, although as my understanding is that it would be still acceptable for them to go fuck each other.
A quote by the famed socialist Ronald Reagan on the Earned Income Tax Credit, which was the model for the Working Tax Credit: "the best anti-poverty, the best pro-family, the best job creation measure to come out of Congress".
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
Saving the global economy? Gordon Bennett! The guy was one of those responsible for overseeing the massive debt mountain and lack of financial regulation that caused the collapse in the first place. This chart shows the big picture, and shows just how appalling Brown's record in office was:
COM RES. The Green surge continues. I keep telling you fracking will decide the next election. Like I told you about UKIP's coming a few years ago. If UKIP would go Green, they'd be home and dry. Farage must move green now or he'll choke.
Ironic as the green rise has coincided with the shrug of indifference towards green issues from the majority. Global Climate change conferences are now media non events.
Like Kipperology and Nattery, greenism is more religious than political - but do their aims overlap - can the Kippers tell a story that mass immigration is bad for the carbon footprint ?
Ukip are already baulking from the pinkos within their midst so I cannot believe they will accept green pinkos either.
Like Kipperology and Nattery, greenism is more religious than political - but do their aims overlap - can the Kippers tell a story that mass immigration is bad for the carbon footprint ?
Seems unlikely, the Green Policy is drowning in warm words and managed to contradict itself at several turns. Its appears on brief inspect to be a combination of come-all-yea:
"MG205 Migration policies should not discriminate directly on grounds of race, colour, religion, political belief, disability, sex or sexual orientation. Preference should not be given to those with resources or desirable skills.
MG420 We will resist all attempts to introduce a 'barrier round Europe' shutting out non-Europeans or giving them more restricted rights of movement within Europe than European Nationals.
MG103 The Green Party recognises the contributions made by many migrants to their recipient area or community. We value the cultural diversity and intercultural awareness resulting from both temporary residence and migration."
economic suicide:
"MG203 Richer regions and communities do not have the right to use migration controls to protect their privileges from others in the long term.
MG300 We will work to achieve greater equity between the UK and non-Western countries. In step with this, we will progressively reduce UK immigration controls."
and general limp-wristed wettery:
"MG208 The interests of both prospective migrants and the recipient area or community must be recognised and, hence, the appropriate resolution of a particular situation (unless covered above) must depend on negotiation between the parties affected."
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
Saving the global economy? Gordon Bennett! The guy was one of those responsible for overseeing the massive debt mountain and lack of financial regulation that caused the collapse in the first place. This chart shows the big picture, and shows just how appalling Brown's record in office was:
The porn master generals can go fuck themselves if they're listening.
No they just moved to pretty much any other country in Europe at the click of a mouse, probably Germany, and continued to sell the same products to the same people online, but now someone else is taking the taxes from it. Ain't Globalisation great ;-)
The porn master generals can go fuck themselves if they're listening.
I don't think that would be permitted under the rules, although as my understanding is that it would be still acceptable for them to go fuck each other.
Twas ever thus......when the Wolfenden Ctte was discussing the law regarding homosexuality and prostitution, rather than describe the 'sufferers' (sic) as 'homosexualists' or 'prostitutes' they adopted the codes 'Huntley & Palmers' - after a well known biscuit company......
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
He didn't save the global economy and I'm not sure about the Union either in the long run. Not to say he didn't play a part in preventing us going over the precipice in both cases which shouldn't be sniffed at. He kept us out of the Euro, but was the referendum winnable anyway? He re-capitalised the banks but not long before he'd talked about a new golden age in the City of light touch regulation. Would we have faced possible Scottish secession were it not for New Labour? I think Brown has helped to clean up some of his own mistakes, so perhaps for that we should be grateful.
Funny how none of the Tories on here who go all metrosexual whenever they think UKIP might have crossed a line haven't criticised this..
Bit cheap to mention a rival's Muslim sounding name when criticising Muslim terrorists and go all
*innocent face*
about it
"Tories resort to ‘cheap tactics’ by calling Ukip’s Tim Aker by Turkish name Timür
Attack on MEP in Thurrock byelection leaflet is placed beside photos of extremist preachers Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza
Aker, whose father is Turkish, told the Guardian: “I think they are just getting desperate. They will find anything. It is incredibly cheap of them. But freedom of speech is what it is and the public will judge them on it.
“I am not calling on them to stop using the leaflet. They can carry on doing what they do. I am not going to try and stifle their rights to freedom of speech. But they have got to bear the responsibility for it.”
Sorry folks .. Brown was a total disaster in both of his roles..good to see the back of him.
Do you think any other Chancellor could have kept us out of the Euro in the face of St Tony's evangelical zeal?
If a decision had been taken to call a referendum in the period 2000-2005, it would have been lost by at least 60/40. At no point was there a clear majority for Euro membership.
The riskiest times were probably from 2001-2003 under Iain Duncan Smith's leadership, but I still think it's have been lost by a clear margin, at best 55-45 for Tony. A lot of the press and influential journalists were dead against it.
The second thing is Tax Credits: a damaging way to distort the tax system and affect people's cost/benefit analyses of their own situations. I would have greatly preferred the equivalent money to have been used on the tax thresholds or rates or some combination of those. It would have been blunter, but much clearer and in my opinion more in tune with how taxation should function. By creating credits, you create the impression in unsophisticated people that the government is giving you money (perpetuating state dependence/control/Labour voting client groups) and that is to me a very strange way to perceive the relationship between individual and state. It also created perverse behavioural incentives which continue to cause issues today. Finally, it's incredibly difficult to reverse, politically, even in a very gradual phased way
I regard tax credits as New Labour's single best policy. The premise of tackling poverty by giving the poorest more money is a delightfully simple and effective concept. If anything, they didn't go far enough.
The name is a shameless bit of double-speak stolen from the Americans, who have had the Earned Income Tax Credit since 1975.
For all your grumbling about "state dependence", it's traditionally a right-wing policy, and was originally mooted as an alternative to the right's proposal for a broader Negative Income Tax. I suspect it's the only major economic policy that New Labour took taken wholesale from the Republican Party.
These days, the right likes to pretend either that the problem doesn't exist, that the poor deserve it, or that it's not their problem.
The concept is ok, but as with so many things Brown tested it to destruction. Notably, they reach too far up the income scale (like what on earth do people earning 2x the national average wage need tax credits for). They've also been misused to subsidise imported labour: some element of residency or contribution is a sensible minimum. Otherwise there is continued downward pressure on marginal labour costs with the British taxpayer picking up the bill (especially on housing costs)
More importantly, the accounting treatment of them as negative revenues is outrageous. It fundamentally disto
I realise that I haven't commented on topic. It would be helpful if we had polls that didn't just prompt for constituency but also prompted for individual candidates by name. Until then, it's hard to comment definitively.
I expect Conservative marginal constituencies where Labour are putting up retread MPs will show less of an incumbency bounce than others, first because the retread will be better known and second because the retread will presumably have been reselected because he or she was deemed a good constituency MP by their local party membership (and so may very well have been in practice).
The second thing is Tax Credits: a damaging way to distort the tax system and affect people's cost/benefit analyses of their own situations. I would have greatly preferred the equivalent money to have been used on the tax thresholds or rates or some combination of those. It would have been blunter, but much clearer and in my opinion more in tune with how taxation should function. By creating credits, you create the impression in unsophisticated people that the government is giving you money (perpetuating state dependence/control/Labour voting client groups) and that is to me a very strange way to perceive the relationship between individual and state. It also created perverse behavioural incentives which continue to cause issues today. Finally, it's incredibly difficult to reverse, politically, even in a very gradual phased way
I regard tax credits as New Labour's single best policy. The premise of tackling poverty by giving the poorest more money is a delightfully simple and effective concept. If anything, they didn't go far enough.
The name is a shameless bit of double-speak stolen from the Americans, who have had the Earned Income Tax Credit since 1975.
For all your grumbling about "state dependence", it's traditionally a right-wing policy, and was originally mooted as an alternative to the right's proposal for a broader Negative Income Tax. I suspect it's the only major economic policy that New Labour took taken wholesale from the Republican Party.
These days, the right likes to pretend either that the problem doesn't exist, that the poor deserve it, or that it's not their problem.
The concept is ok, but as with so many things Brown tested it to destruction. Notably, they reach too far up the income scale (like what on earth do people earning 2x the national average wage need tax credits for). They've also been misused to subsidise imported labour: some element of residency or contribution is a sensible minimum. Otherwise there is continued downward pressure on marginal labour costs with the British taxpayer picking up the bill (especially on housing costs)
More importantly, the accounting treatment of them as negative revenues is outrageous. It fundamentally misrepresents the nature of the payments. Bad data leads to bad decisions.
Funny how none of the Tories on here who go all metrosexual whenever they think UKIP might have crossed a line haven't criticised this..
Bit cheap to mention a rival's Muslim sounding name when criticising Muslim terrorists and go all
*innocent face*
about it
"Tories resort to ‘cheap tactics’ by calling Ukip’s Tim Aker by Turkish name Timür
Attack on MEP in Thurrock byelection leaflet is placed beside photos of extremist preachers Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza
Aker, whose father is Turkish, told the Guardian: “I think they are just getting desperate. They will find anything. It is incredibly cheap of them. But freedom of speech is what it is and the public will judge them on it.
“I am not calling on them to stop using the leaflet. They can carry on doing what they do. I am not going to try and stifle their rights to freedom of speech. But they have got to bear the responsibility for it.”
Generalizing by means of a quantifier (People) when quantifiable measures could be provided, obfuscates the point being made, and is an example of "weaseling".
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
But did not Mr Brown have ambition to be PM right from the start? 1983, it says here, for instance:
And do you have documentation for that lipstick comment? Or is it just an anti-female joke of yours? If the latter, then your sistren i the Labour Party (I assume) are going to be VERY CROSS with you (and just to avoid confusion I hasten to stress that this is nothing to do with the remarkable news being published in the Indy and commented on below).
I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to praise Brown as a colossus in Scotland over indyref, as you do elsewhere - if only because the game is not over: the full outcome of his intervention won't be played out till GE2015, not to mention Holyrood in 2016. What if it leads to the defeat of the Labour Party in Scotland, for instance?* And in any case he has resigned and is leaving politics, so he has no further role to play therein.
* I know he wanted to keep Labour's indyref campaign separate from the Tories, but he wasn't boss any more. One wonders what indyref would have been like if he had had his way. It would probably have been less damaging for Labour.
Funny how none of the Tories on here who go all metrosexual whenever they think UKIP might have crossed a line haven't criticised this..
Bit cheap to mention a rival's Muslim sounding name when criticising Muslim terrorists and go all
*innocent face*
about it
"Tories resort to ‘cheap tactics’ by calling Ukip’s Tim Aker by Turkish name Timür
Attack on MEP in Thurrock byelection leaflet is placed beside photos of extremist preachers Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza
Aker, whose father is Turkish, told the Guardian: “I think they are just getting desperate. They will find anything. It is incredibly cheap of them. But freedom of speech is what it is and the public will judge them on it.
“I am not calling on them to stop using the leaflet. They can carry on doing what they do. I am not going to try and stifle their rights to freedom of speech. But they have got to bear the responsibility for it.”
As a basic matter of politeness, anyone should be addressed by the name that they choose to go by. Gordon Brown and George Osborne are entitled to the same politeness.
This particular case is particularly distasteful, in the same way that a certain type of poster referring to Barack Hussain Obama was distasteful. You don't need sensitive high pitch hearing to hear this dog whistle.
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
I agree that history will judge him differently. He certainly made a huge contribution to managing the financial crisis and the No campaign.
I really don't know whether Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party or PM. I can't think of any politician who having entered no10 at the same time* would have prospered.
* After 10 years of a uniquely charismatic PM, 1 year before a financial crisis.
I realise that I haven't commented on topic. It would be helpful if we had polls that didn't just prompt for constituency but also prompted for individual candidates by name. Until then, it's hard to comment definitively.
I expect Conservative marginal constituencies where Labour are putting up retread MPs will show less of an incumbency bounce than others, first because the retread will be better known and second because the retread will presumably have been reselected because he or she was deemed a good constituency MP by their local party membership (and so may very well have been in practice).
Anyone in mind? I can think of one pb regular who'll like that a lot.
""Our ministers shame us in front of the world when they give their support to the Israeli government as they commit war crimes in Palestine and Lebanon," she wrote."
Thanks for the Alice Mahon article. The problem with an article from a soon to be ex MP is you get a mixed bag. Some of it I agree with other stuff would have looked politically out of date in the '70's. as a criticism of Brown and so soon before an election it just sounded bitter. Do you think after four years of Cameron she would still feel the same way?
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
But did not Mr Brown have ambition to be PM right from the start? 1983, it says here, for instance:
And do you have documentation for that lipstick comment? Or is it just an anti-female joke of yours? If the latter, then your sistren i the Labour Party (I assume) are going to be VERY CROSS with you (and just to avoid confusion I hasten to stress that this is nothing to do with the remarkable news being published in the Indy and commented on below).
I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to praise Brown as a colossus in Scotland over indyref, as you do elsewhere - if only because the game is not over: the full outcome of his intervention won't be played out till GE2015, not to mention Holyrood in 2016. What if it leads to the defeat of the Labour Party in Scotland, for instance?* And in any case he has resigned and is leaving politics, so he has no further role to play therein.
* I know he wanted to keep Labour's indyref campaign separate from the Tories, but he wasn't boss any more. One wonders what indyref would have been like if he had had his way. It would probably have been less damaging for Labour.
Roger has some very unreconstructed views on the role of women in society. It appears that he believes should be secretaries and "pretty young things" in short skirts whose primary function is to be the sexual playthings of their older (male) bosses
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
Saving the global economy? Gordon Bennett! The guy was one of those responsible for overseeing the massive debt mountain and lack of financial regulation that caused the collapse in the first place. This chart shows the big picture, and shows just how appalling Brown's record in office was:
The irony is that the Tories' obsession with public debt means that Brown gets a pretty free ride when it comes to his biggest mistakes. I was surprised to hear Will Hutton describe Brown as one of the worst ever stewards of our economy, but the graph you showed was basically his reasoning. If only the Tories understood that the only way to deal with such a problem is public stimulus.
Funny how none of the Tories on here who go all metrosexual whenever they think UKIP might have crossed a line haven't criticised this..
Bit cheap to mention a rival's Muslim sounding name when criticising Muslim terrorists and go all
*innocent face*
about it
"Tories resort to ‘cheap tactics’ by calling Ukip’s Tim Aker by Turkish name Timür
Attack on MEP in Thurrock byelection leaflet is placed beside photos of extremist preachers Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza
Aker, whose father is Turkish, told the Guardian: “I think they are just getting desperate. They will find anything. It is incredibly cheap of them. But freedom of speech is what it is and the public will judge them on it.
“I am not calling on them to stop using the leaflet. They can carry on doing what they do. I am not going to try and stifle their rights to freedom of speech. But they have got to bear the responsibility for it.”
As a basic matter of politeness, anyone should be addressed by the name that they choose to go by. Gordon Brown and George Osborne are entitled to the same politeness.
This particular case is particularly distasteful, in the same way that a certain type of poster referring to Barack Hussain Obama was distasteful. You don't need sensitive high pitch hearing to hear this dog whistle.
I promise there will be no such campaigning in IS & FB, where I am on at 100/1 (named candidate not party)
The porn master generals can go fuck themselves if they're listening.
That's probably not allowed anymore...
;-)
They're banning depictions of spanking, caning, aggressive whipping, penetration by any object "associated with violence", strangulation and fisting. How are the broadcasters supposed to cover the next election, "The Liberal Democrats had a disappointing night"?
Good to read some positive comments about Gordon Brown, not least from Roger below.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party and a terrible PM. But I suspect that history will be a lot kinder to him than those on the right are currently. Thank God it was him and Darling in charge when the crash occurred and not Osborne and Cameron; and thank God he got active during the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
I agree that history will judge him differently. He certainly made a huge contribution to managing the financial crisis and the No campaign.
I really don't know whether Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party or PM. I can't think of any politician who having entered no10 at the same time* would have prospered.
* After 10 years of a uniquely charismatic PM, 1 year before a financial crisis.
Brown's problem as PM was that Blair had destroyed Cabinet government so that all decisions had to flow through Number Ten, and neither he nor his team could cope with this.
The porn master generals can go fuck themselves if they're listening.
That's probably not allowed anymore...
;-)
They're banning depictions of spanking, caning, aggressive whipping, penetration by any object "associated with violence", strangulation and fisting. How are the broadcasters supposed to cover the next election, "The Liberal Democrats had a disappointing night"?
They are going to get penetrated by the electorate, not sure if that counts as an object associated with violence or not ;-)
"He hung on so he could screw Scotland yet again , hopefully he will not be allowed near anything in future."
Sorry Malc but to criticize Brown who was a giant among world politicians while supporting Sturgeon a very minor fish in a very small pond (if you'll excuse the pun) whose only claim to fame is that like Cameron she wanted the glory of leading her party from the age of fourteen.
Brown by contrast spent his teenage years supporting soup kitchens and later helping students at Edinburgh University for which many-by all accounts-are still grateful .....Nicola of course spent her student years trying out lipsticks to see which she could match with her favourite tartan.....
Roger, Dear Dear , Brown spent all his efforts on his own self aggrandisement. He used every dubious and underhand tactic in the book to wreck opponents lives and careers to ensure he got what he wanted, and as we know he was crap at it. Still a self important useless windbag , full of wind and piss and useless.
Malkie, Change "Brown" to "Salmond" and you would still be spot on.
I realise that I haven't commented on topic. It would be helpful if we had polls that didn't just prompt for constituency but also prompted for individual candidates by name. Until then, it's hard to comment definitively.
I expect Conservative marginal constituencies where Labour are putting up retread MPs will show less of an incumbency bounce than others, first because the retread will be better known and second because the retread will presumably have been reselected because he or she was deemed a good constituency MP by their local party membership (and so may very well have been in practice).
Is it known when the incumbency bonus normally kicks in? Does it rise steadily through a parliament as the MP is pictured opening fetes and opposing hospital closures every week in the local paper, or is it very much a late phenomenon fuelled by the MP's record being printed on campaign literature? To the extent it is the latter, we'd not expect to see it yet. If the former, maybe declining newspaper sales do not help, and Twitter is an inadequate substitute if, as reported here earlier, it is only the already engaged who pay it any attention.
Comments
Con 275
LD 30
NI 18
UKIP 8
SNP 21
Something like that.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 1m1 minute ago
Rare TNS opinion poll: LAB 31%, CON 30%, UKIP 19%, LIB DEM 6%, GREEN 6% https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5Ik-gKDMpozUDRzWXI4S293aWc/view?usp=sharing …
Unfortunately, Mercedes are reckoned to have another 60bhp of gains as well.
Ferrari (engine as well as team) *may* be in trouble if they can't match that. Aerodynamically, they've been behind Red Bull and Mercedes, and they get murdered by Williams on every straight going. If the Honda is pretty good, Ferrari might be looking at 5th next season.
On the plus side for the Tifosi, James Allison should have more of a hand in designing their current car, and the 2015 Red Bull will be the last Newey-designed F1 car. Red Bull won't fall off a cliff in 2016, but having lost Prodromou to McLaren and Newey leaving F1, they could fall back.
Con +1, Lab -5, LD -1, UKIP nc
Bloody Hell no wonder the country is in debt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-politics/11264812/Forget-Ukip-why-the-Green-Party-could-decide-the-election.html
I'd not seen Sadiq Khan's estimate that 17 seats were at risk for Labour before. That does sound like an attempt to scare the disaffected back into the fold.
As I somewhat grudgingly acknowledged a lot earlier this morning there is no question that he went into politics for the right reasons and with a genuine desire to help the disadvantaged. To some extent I think that was reflected in what he achieved in relation to third world debt at Gleneagles and afterwards, probably the best thing he did as Chancellor.
But my word, he did a lot of damage.
Seems legit.
I think putting GB wide polls into Baxter is a mistake if the Separatist surge in North Britain continues until the election
Also, Malcolm, the first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club
Seriously though obviously SNP surge if sustained seriously undermines UNS.
My take is it doesnt impact on EICIPM as that is the only option SNP would support IMO
I'm not sure that you're right that no politician would have avoided the Brown splurge. In the late 80s the Tories did after all have a period when they were repaying government debt.
If you're at Cineworld, go see Paddington and Horrible Bosses 2.
If the SNP do very well it is at the expense of Labour seats - seeing as they only care about Scotland any claims of "unfairness" in them propping up a Lab Minority (Even if they say have 1 less seat than the Tories) will fall on completely deaf ears.
But can you imagine Miliband and Farron as PM and DPM? It would be the most pathetically limp-wristed pair of wets.
I deemed to see my first kids film for a decade last month TMNT big mistake (despite your Harem participant) So dont think I can BEAR to see Paddington.
Will see horrible bosses this week at some point.
Is there a Cineworld anywhere near BBC HQ in Manchester as am off for another The Voice Recording tomorrrow?
The collapse in Lib Dem support immediately after the GE there and now in Labour support after the indy ref is because both the reds and yellows had to get into bed with the blues there.
Meanwhile Scottish Tories will vote Tory, twas ever thus (They haven't suffered at all really so far as I can tell from being the senior partner in the coalition or from lumping in with Labour on the indy ref)
This is why you can absolutely rule out c&s for the CONs from the SNP I think. The most the SNP will do for the Conservatives is abstain from their fundamental measures I think.
FFS man are you insane?
Looks pretty reasonable on other seat predictions IMO
Ogf course Roger your view of the situation is completely untainted by biais and your hate of the tories.
But Paddington is the best British movie ever, the Kippers hate it as it the story of a Brown coloured illegal immigrant to this country, who keeps his head covered, and changes the life of an English family.
Plus it has Nicole Kidman in it.
The nearest cineworld's round Manchester are in Didsbury, Stockport and Ashton, I'd recommend the latter one.
And don't accuse me of wearing "blue glasses". A number of Labour women were appalled by that - as any decent person would be - and one former Labour MP, Alice Mahon, reportedly resigned from the Labour party in disgust.
Gordon Brown only had two flaws, everything he said, and everything he did, apart from that he was brilliant.
How can you diss the man who released this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBXj5l6ShpA
I confess my choice of Cambridge as a vulnerable LibDem seat was on reflection a less than stellar choice. All the intel going into my ARSE now show a very comfortable hold for Huppert that will especially indicate a large first term incumbency bounce for this locally extremely high profile yellow perilist.
As for Watford your esteemed father and I are as one on this constituency and accordingly when OGH and JackW concur then no force of nature may stop the inevitable result that this Hertfordshire seat will become the only LibDem GAIN of election night.
He is and will remain a controversial figure, with few friends outside his own party. Much like Thatcher in that respect.
He clearly had a remarkable political career. Has anyone been resident longer in Downing street? Personally I enjoyed his oratory and respected his dedication.
Like Kipperology and Nattery, greenism is more religious than political - but do their aims overlap - can the Kippers tell a story that mass immigration is bad for the carbon footprint ?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/a-long-list-of-sex-acts-just-got-banned-in-uk-porn-9897174.html
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/public-opinion-monitor-tight-race-between-conservative-and-labour
The name is a shameless bit of double-speak stolen from the Americans, who have had the Earned Income Tax Credit since 1975.
For all your grumbling about "state dependence", it's traditionally a right-wing policy, and was originally mooted as an alternative to the right's proposal for a broader Negative Income Tax. I suspect it's the only major economic policy that New Labour took taken wholesale from the Republican Party.
These days, the right likes to pretend either that the problem doesn't exist, that the poor deserve it, or that it's not their problem.
Saving the global economy and the Union are not inconsiderable achievements.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hFWzQDHrj7A/TxlecZq_nEI/AAAAAAAAAR4/OZ75aYzZKgo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-01-20+at+1.25.53+PM.png
(sample 119)
Labour 48%, Con 17%, UKIP 17%, Green 9%, LD 4%,
p.89 of the PDF
"MG205 Migration policies should not discriminate directly on grounds of race, colour, religion, political belief, disability, sex or sexual orientation. Preference should not be given to those with resources or desirable skills.
MG420 We will resist all attempts to introduce a 'barrier round Europe' shutting out non-Europeans or giving them more restricted rights of movement within Europe than European Nationals.
MG103 The Green Party recognises the contributions made by many migrants to their recipient area or community. We value the cultural diversity and intercultural awareness resulting from both temporary residence and migration."
economic suicide:
"MG203 Richer regions and communities do not have the right to use migration controls to protect their privileges from others in the long term.
MG300 We will work to achieve greater equity between the UK and non-Western countries. In step with this, we will progressively reduce UK immigration controls."
and general limp-wristed wettery:
"MG208 The interests of both prospective migrants and the recipient area or community must be recognised and, hence, the appropriate resolution of a particular situation (unless covered above) must depend on negotiation between the parties affected."
"Still thinking about the next UK general election, which party, if any, will you vote for in your own constituency?"
Con 30%, Lab 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 20%, Green 6%.
p.55 of the PDF.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/30288604
;-)
;-)
TNS break income in 10 segments, and 4 groups: lowest, 2nd-5th, 6th-9th, highest.
UKIP's support is constant among the lower 9 groups. They are not concentrated among the poorest, they just perform poorly with the richest.
19%, 19%, 22%, 10%
p.87 of the PDF.
Labour and the Consevatives do much the same with all groups except the lowest, there Labour have a clear lead.
Funny how none of the Tories on here who go all metrosexual whenever they think UKIP might have crossed a line haven't criticised this..
Bit cheap to mention a rival's Muslim sounding name when criticising Muslim terrorists and go all
*innocent face*
about it
"Tories resort to ‘cheap tactics’ by calling Ukip’s Tim Aker by Turkish name Timür
Attack on MEP in Thurrock byelection leaflet is placed beside photos of extremist preachers Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza
Aker, whose father is Turkish, told the Guardian: “I think they are just getting desperate. They will find anything. It is incredibly cheap of them. But freedom of speech is what it is and the public will judge them on it.
“I am not calling on them to stop using the leaflet. They can carry on doing what they do. I am not going to try and stifle their rights to freedom of speech. But they have got to bear the responsibility for it.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/02/tories-ukip-byelection-thurrock-tim-aker-timur-cheap
The riskiest times were probably from 2001-2003 under Iain Duncan Smith's leadership, but I still think it's have been lost by a clear margin, at best 55-45 for Tony. A lot of the press and influential journalists were dead against it.
A more accurate forecast - the Murali Election Forecast (MEF) will be released when I'm back in the UK.
More importantly, the accounting treatment of them as negative revenues is outrageous. It fundamentally disto
I expect Conservative marginal constituencies where Labour are putting up retread MPs will show less of an incumbency bounce than others, first because the retread will be better known and second because the retread will presumably have been reselected because he or she was deemed a good constituency MP by their local party membership (and so may very well have been in practice).
More importantly, the accounting treatment of them as negative revenues is outrageous. It fundamentally misrepresents the nature of the payments. Bad data leads to bad decisions.
Generalizing by means of a quantifier (People) when quantifiable measures could be provided, obfuscates the point being made, and is an example of "weaseling".
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=2_Qq6RJr6_QC&pg=PA97&dq=gordon+brown+ambition+prime+minister&hl=en&sa=X&ei=LrB9VP2YNszsaOP-gcAN&ved=0CDQQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=gordon brown ambition prime minister&f=false
And do you have documentation for that lipstick comment? Or is it just an anti-female joke of yours? If the latter, then your sistren i the Labour Party (I assume) are going to be VERY CROSS with you (and just to avoid confusion I hasten to stress that this is nothing to do with the remarkable news being published in the Indy and commented on below).
I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to praise Brown as a colossus in Scotland over indyref, as you do elsewhere - if only because the game is not over: the full outcome of his intervention won't be played out till GE2015, not to mention Holyrood in 2016. What if it leads to the defeat of the Labour Party in Scotland, for instance?* And in any case he has resigned and is leaving politics, so he has no further role to play therein.
* I know he wanted to keep Labour's indyref campaign separate from the Tories, but he wasn't boss any more. One wonders what indyref would have been like if he had had his way. It would probably have been less damaging for Labour.
In favour
The Mirror
The Independent
The Financial Times
Against
The Telegraph
The Times
The Daily Mail
The Express
The Sun
On the fence
The Guardian
This particular case is particularly distasteful, in the same way that a certain type of poster referring to Barack Hussain Obama was distasteful. You don't need sensitive high pitch hearing to hear this dog whistle.
I really don't know whether Brown was a poor leader of the Labour party or PM. I can't think of any politician who having entered no10 at the same time* would have prospered.
* After 10 years of a uniquely charismatic PM, 1 year before a financial crisis.
""Our ministers shame us in front of the world when they give their support to the Israeli government as they commit war crimes in Palestine and Lebanon," she wrote."
Thanks for the Alice Mahon article. The problem with an article from a soon to be ex MP is you get a mixed bag. Some of it I agree with other stuff would have looked politically out of date in the '70's. as a criticism of Brown and so soon before an election it just sounded bitter. Do you think after four years of Cameron she would still feel the same way?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/it-just-encourages-them
"42% of voters say they’ve changed their voting intention since 2010."
The markets had long suspected interest rate were set for political reasons. Independence has bought sterling and the UK credit market credibility.
Most Daily Mail story ever ?