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Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part One (Safe Seats) – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 13,605
    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    I’d not heard of the term until today. New one to me. Good to have it’s meaning explained.

    Cannot deviate from the general consensus of the centrist Dad
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,139
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Greens might win one of the Isle of Wight seats, maybe East where the well-known (locally) Vix Lowthion is the candidate. Sitting member Bob Seely is probably favourite to win West.

    The IoW is a real mixed bag of a seat but behaves more like the SW of England than the SE. The Greens will appeal to well-off radical middle class but not much else.

    I have bets on the Conservatives to retain both, but I'm now feeling rather less confident about it. Reform will do well in parts which could kill them.
    In IOWE I have a feeling that Reform could poll well. West will be a straight showdown between Labour and Tory.
    Agree on the first but not sure the fight in East will be straight.

    IoW is a real smorgasbord of different voting constituencies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    edited June 25
    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,605
    Afghanistan beat Bangladesh to book a T20 semi final berth.
  • Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    I’d not heard of the term until today. New one to me. Good to have it’s meaning explained.

    Cannot deviate from the general consensus of the centrist Dad
    I’m not a centrist Dad but I do love the centrist Dad podcasts
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003
    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    I’d not heard of the term until today. New one to me. Good to have it’s meaning explained.

    Cannot deviate from the general consensus of the centrist Dad
    What Dura_Ace does not mention is *why* that split occurred. The 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia caused great consternation amongst western communists. Some decried it, and some even moved away from Communism, whereas some excused and condoned it. This latter group were the 'tankies'.

    We see similar quisling behaviour by pro-Russian shits shills today.

    The following is a rather lengthy discussion of what happened:
    https://www.socialisthistorysociety.co.uk/?page_id=176
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,359
    Taz said:

    Afghanistan beat Bangladesh to book a T20 semi final berth.

    And Australia are out...bonus.

    England aren't going to beat India in the Semi-Final though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
    Assange was, and is, a sh*t. a nasty, narcissistic person who placed people - including a family member of mine (*) in danger. Bets for him to skulk back to Australia and drift into obscurity. But he won't.

    (*) Aided and abetted by the Guardian...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB lo after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    While it’s good that you’re reclaiming the term, its first recorded printed use in that context was by the hard-right Federation of Conservative Students in 1977, as reported in the Warwick University student paper, to National Organisation of Labour Students. It wasn’t applied to the CPGB by any surviving left wing publication until an edition of the Spartacist in May 1982.

    Accusing “centrists” of intellectual dishonesty or ignorance in misusing a term that was never precisely defined anyway doesn’t work. It’s a bit like Leon objecting to describing Farage as a fascist because, technically, he doesn’t believe in a corporatist state.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
    Yes, Assange release is long overdue, just spinelessness on our part that we wouldnt tell the yanks to piss off.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,570
    edited June 25

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    Nah, it's used on here to describe leftists who will ignore or excuse any sin committed by Russia, ideally by putting the blame on anyone but Russia.

    Can you think of any PBer who fits that bill?
    The one who said things like this in late 2021 isn’t a leftist, though….
    ???? said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

  • malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
    Yes, Assange release is long overdue, just spinelessness on our part that we wouldnt tell the yanks to piss off.
    Agreed.
  • I see Farage had a big rally in the Southwest yeaterday (Newton Abbot not Minehead).
  • Morning everyone. I know this will not happen. However what if Labour fall short by one vote and we end up with a lib Lab pact. The two parties would reach a deal and what policies would be added in to the new coalition?
  • One seat I meant.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    Nah, it's used on here to describe leftists who will ignore or excuse any sin committed by Russia, ideally by putting the blame on anyone but Russia.

    Can you think of any PBer who fits that bill?
    The one who said this in 2021 wasn’t a leftist, though….
    ???? said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    Yes, the pig farmer is another example of the horseshoe effect in politics. He is not a tankie, but sometimes his views are so extreme (and stupid) that he finds himself agreeing with them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527

    Morning everyone. I know this will not happen. However what if Labour fall short by one vote and we end up with a lib Lab pact. The two parties would reach a deal and what policies would be added in to the new coalition?

    AV and free unicorns
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    Nah, it's used on here to describe leftists who will ignore or excuse any sin committed by Russia, ideally by putting the blame on anyone but Russia.

    Can you think of any PBer who fits that bill?
    The one who said this in 2021 wasn’t a leftist, though….
    ???? said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    The caps give it away.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 618
    I've just found my 2nd leaflet of the campaign on my doormat from Andrew Rosindell, who appears now to be fighting as an Independent English Nationalist rather than a Conservative, on a very esoteric platform with no mention of the Conservative Party at all, not even in the imprint. Just the logo in the mockup of the ballot paper. (His previous leaflet was clearly Conservative). His "please display in the window" page is the cross of St George with no blue at all. He must have decided from canvassing that his own party is toxic. Are other Tory candidates doing the same?

    Also, he manages no fewer than 34 photos of himself. Can anyone beat that?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Good morning all. Down in the South-west. Didn’t see or hear the Nuremberg Farage rally.

    9 days of the campaign to go including today.
  • A very mature and good response from Wes Streeting on the trans issue I thought.

    I do think Labour will put the culture wars to one side, which can only be a good thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,570
    Heathener said:

    Good morning all. Down in the South-west. Didn’t see or hear the Nuremberg Farage rally.

    9 days of the campaign to go including today.

    10 including the big day, when the parties certainly will be campaigning even if the media is quiet
  • Wes. The next PM.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    edited June 25
    Watched the Peston show last night for the first time in my life. It was very good. Steve Baker was honest. Wes Streeting - first time I’ve listened to him - was very impressive.

    In other news, as reported by Sky News, lots of people saying that that photo from the Taylor Swift Eras tour was ‘the’ standout moment of the campaign for Keir Starmer. It cut through with youngsters and parents of youngsters. As spotted by yours truly ;) It was a beautiful photo of the couple and resonated.


    Probably even more than John Major at B&Q in 1992. It’s about having your finger on the pulse of the public.
  • Morning everyone. I know this will not happen. However what if Labour fall short by one vote and we end up with a lib Lab pact. The two parties would reach a deal and what policies would be added in to the new coalition?

    It might. They still need to win about 120 seata to get a majority (140 taking new boundaries into account).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
    Yes, Assange release is long overdue, just spinelessness on our part that we wouldnt tell the yanks to piss off.
    They say jump and our craven bunch just ask how high. If only they would pursue real criminals with such zeal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    NEW THREAD

  • Yes. A very small chance of it happening. Could be a better bet. Than the massive Lab majority line. Some European countries make it work. I know the pact with Clegg and Cameron ended up being a flop. Labour make work better with the Libs. Although I could be totally incorrect.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,605

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    I’d not heard of the term until today. New one to me. Good to have it’s meaning explained.

    Cannot deviate from the general consensus of the centrist Dad
    What Dura_Ace does not mention is *why* that split occurred. The 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia caused great consternation amongst western communists. Some decried it, and some even moved away from Communism, whereas some excused and condoned it. This latter group were the 'tankies'.

    We see similar quisling behaviour by pro-Russian shits shills today.

    The following is a rather lengthy discussion of what happened:
    https://www.socialisthistorysociety.co.uk/?page_id=176
    The problem is you’re deemed pro Russian by the ultras here if you’re not 100% on board and happy clappy for Ukraine to the extent of wanting U.K. troops on the ground.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tankie was the cognomen given to those that stayed in the CPGB after the CPGB/NCP split in 1968 - not to be confused with the CPGB/CPB(M-L) split in 1963.

    It's used on here with intellectual dishonesty, or perhaps more likely dunderheaded ignorance, to refer to any person with a left wing perspective for whom the Centrist Dad posting has little regard.

    I’d not heard of the term until today. New one to me. Good to have it’s meaning explained.

    Cannot deviate from the general consensus of the centrist Dad
    What Dura_Ace does not mention is *why* that split occurred. The 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia caused great consternation amongst western communists. Some decried it, and some even moved away from Communism, whereas some excused and condoned it. This latter group were the 'tankies'.

    We see similar quisling behaviour by pro-Russian shits shills today.

    The following is a rather lengthy discussion of what happened:
    https://www.socialisthistorysociety.co.uk/?page_id=176
    The problem is you’re deemed pro Russian by the ultras here if you’re not 100% on board and happy clappy for Ukraine to the extent of wanting U.K. troops on the ground.
    You do realist that's utterly incorrect?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503
    Interesting piece on Jezza which folk will no doubt accept/reject based on existing views.

    Some valuable takeaways, not least of which is that some voters may not even realise that Corbyn is no longer Labour. Also Labour seem very far from throwing the kitchen sink at Islington North.

    https://tinyurl.com/yc5ukj8j
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 775

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Greens might win one of the Isle of Wight seats, maybe East where the well-known (locally) Vix Lowthion is the candidate. Sitting member Bob Seely is probably favourite to win West.

    The IoW is a real mixed bag of a seat but behaves more like the SW of England than the SE. The Greens will appeal to well-off radical middle class but not much else.

    I have bets on the Conservatives to retain both, but I'm now feeling rather less confident about it. Reform will do well in parts which could kill them.
    In IOWE I have a feeling that Reform could poll well. West will be a straight showdown between Labour and Tory.
    Agree on the first but not sure the fight in East will be straight.

    IoW is a real smorgasbord of different voting constituencies.
    I've said for many years that if anywhere in the country could end up as a Green-Reform(/Brexit/UKIp) marginal, it's the IoW. Lots of counterculture stuff mixed up with retirees, especially forces retirees.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,002
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
    Yes, Assange release is long overdue, just spinelessness on our part that we wouldnt tell the yanks to piss off.
    They say jump and our craven bunch just ask how high. If only they would pursue real criminals with such zeal.
    The US does pursue white collar criminals with zeal.

    Assange has served five years in jail which is about right given the millions of classified documents he released
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,002
    PJH said:

    I've just found my 2nd leaflet of the campaign on my doormat from Andrew Rosindell, who appears now to be fighting as an Independent English Nationalist rather than a Conservative, on a very esoteric platform with no mention of the Conservative Party at all, not even in the imprint. Just the logo in the mockup of the ballot paper. (His previous leaflet was clearly Conservative). His "please display in the window" page is the cross of St George with no blue at all. He must have decided from canvassing that his own party is toxic. Are other Tory candidates doing the same?

    Also, he manages no fewer than 34 photos of himself. Can anyone beat that?

    Romford went Labour in 1997, Rosindell can win it as an English nationalist mate of Farage but probably not as a Sunak Tory
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    It appears Assange has cut a deal with US prosecutors to plead guilty to one charge, be sentenced to time served with the five years in the UK considered his ‘time’ and then go to Australia. And, finally, has left the country.

    They have finally done the right thing if very late.
    Very late? They locked the stupid narcissist up five years ago.

    And he locked himself up for nine years before that.
    Just badness by Americans aided and abetted by their poodles the UK. They don't like the truth coming out.
    Yes, Assange release is long overdue, just spinelessness on our part that we wouldnt tell the yanks to piss off.
    They say jump and our craven bunch just ask how high. If only they would pursue real criminals with such zeal.
    The US does pursue white collar criminals with zeal.

    Assange has served five years in jail which is about right given the millions of classified documents he released
    I don't like Assange. He is a hideous narcissist. However he demonstrated serious US Government war crimes, that is why he was chased down. Whether what he did compromised the US military depends, by and large, on your political bias.
This discussion has been closed.