Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants.
Anthropogenic climate change is happening - that is a fact. The main issue is how to tackle the issue. The neoliberals want to allow big business to thrive whilst also paying lip service to the idea of being environmentally friendly, so they move taxes onto consumers rather than producers of CO2 - the petrol hikes that many rural Europeans so despise because it makes rural living more expensive is a good example of this. The right / far right want to pretend climate change isn't happening and move on to a scarcity model of politics - there isn't enough left for the Volk, so we must kick out the foreigner (and the dissenters who aren't really people like us anyway). The left propose the only viable alternative - investment in renewable energy and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This will mean huge phase shifts (reduced plastic use, reduced usage of hydrocarbon based fertilisers, etc), but at least the left are willing to say what the problem is (excess production and consumption for the benefit of capital) and where to get the resources to tackle the issue (those who already hoard capital) without having to scapegoat immigrants.
There is another option and that's to value sustainability and ecological impact beside profit as a business motive. It's no good making money if you're destroying the world. Supporting businesses which are ecologically sustainable and seek to mitigate the impact of climate change would be sensible options for a more business-oriented Government and if that means companies who refuse to be sustainable go to the wall so be it.
There is a fine line but Govenrment can also be about influencing public behaviour and educating people as to what is happening, why it is happening and the consequences especially for those parts of the world where the impacts are more keenly and immediately felt.
We too face issues from rising sea levels and a climate with more frequent extremes of weather and that means sensible thinking on houses including not building housing developments on flood plains.
The problem with capitalistic growth is that it is ideologically wedded not only to profit, but ever growing profit, which demand ever more extraction and squeezing of labour, along with increasingly trying to foist externalities onto public coffers (or ignoring them completely) makes it really difficult. Already we have right wingers and big businesses saying there is too much green tape and regulation etc. We also know that consumption and CO2 production is skewwed heavily towards the extremely wealthy - both globally and within individual nations. The answer, more equitable distribution of resources and an overall decrease in consumption reliant on fossil fuels, doesn't really square with the continuation of the profit motive as it currently exists.
You don't believe in net zero, do you?
If we have net zero, why do we need "equitable distribution of resources" for climate reasons, considering we can scale up or down consumption/production and anything times zero equals zero.
If we don't have net zero, how do we stop climate change?
If you were serious about tackling climate change, you wouldn't believe any of the garbage you're spouting.
"Everyone can carry on doing whatever they like no matter how destructive because I believe in magic"
Not magic - science and technology.
Of course, related to our parallel chat, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Simple question: Do you believe in net zero, yes or no?
I do, thanks to clean technologies. That is the only viable solution for the environment, your dogma is bad for the environment.
A lot of ppl think Rejoin is very difficult because the process officially entails adopting the Euro, Schengen, etc - things that even many Rejoiners don’t want.
But here’s the thing. If we asked the EU for a return to the 2015 status quo ante…the worst they could do is say no?
I understand that it wouldn’t be able to happen overnight. But if it would be a net GDP benefit to both the UK and the EU… could they not acquiesce? Or agree to something close to it, eventually?
Some would say “The EU would only allow the UK back in under the same terms as everyone else” because if it let us pick and choose, then other countries would demand the same.
But isn’t this partially negated by the ability of the EU to say to any country who wants to leave in the future, “Well look, the UK tried to leave, they regretted it, so much that we both went back to how things were before.”
I’ve long been a believer that 90% of Brexiteers cared predominantly about immigration - yes, austerity/a desire for levelling up etc might have motivated voters but I imagine many of those would probably prefer to be back in the EU now.
I don’t know whether Labour’s plan for closer integration basically gets us eventually to some kind of ‘rejoining in all but name’ which might satisfy people enough on both sides.
I think if the Lib Dems are the official opposition it could certainly accelerate calls to outright rejoin. Electorally it seems lucrative way to try and eat into the Labour vote and differentiate them from Starmer’s Govt.
Unicorns.
You've dumped your ex in a very acrimonious way, with lots of bad stuff said by both parties. Your life has gone to shit, you are poorer, depressed etc.
Your ex is angry, but she has moved on.
And now, you ring her up and say "hey babes, look, lets just forget I ever dumper you, can we go back to how it was?"
How is that going to go?
Very poor analogy, though, since neither dumber or dumpee are the same entities as they were back in 2016.
Countries and multinational associations are not particularly comparable to individuals. You're going down Leon's ridiculous 'Brexit is like having a baby' rabbit hole.
And the original idea would be disastrous for the EU - If it was believed that someone who left could rejoin as before, the barriers to leaving would be negligible: "Oh lets give it a go and if we don't like it we'll just say it was all just a dream".
After observing our experience of the last decade, who on earth would believe that ?
The barriers to leaving or (re)joining are far more matters of practicality than pure legislation. Note I've said anything myself about our rejoining during today's discussion. I'm just noting merely that the prospect being raised seems to prompt a rash of irrationally definitive arguments in response.
Trinite sur Mer is extremely pleasant. I’m not sure what radicalised Jean Marie le pen. Maybe the sardine boutique was bought by a Jewish couple? The artisanal biscotterie and cider brasserie played reggae on a Sunday?
June 17-20th, sample of 520 current or recent GB News viewers
Yes, but with the caveat of it being a poll of a subset of the population. So, similar to polls of Muslim voters, or private renters, etc, that have also been done
The significance that you attach to it depends strongly on your prior assumptions about what you think the voting intention of GB News viewers should be
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amenable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Labour 55%, Conservative 22%, LD 10%, Reform 8%, Greens 5%.
Since 2019, that's Labour +6, Conservative -10, LD -5, Reform +6.5, Green +2
A swing of 8% from Conservative to Labour and 2.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat so not the big moves we've seen in other parts of the country. We did see from the Holborn & St Pancras poll yesterday some Green strength and Labour weakness in Inner London and I expect we're seeing stronger Labour scores in Outer London.
Just to remind you, I have the following London bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10 Romford – CON 6/4
Apart from Croydon East, which has gone - I'm concerned about Harrow East but I'm happy with the other five and while we can see the Conservatives being reduced from the 21 sats they won last time down to single figures, I don't see a wipeout on these numbers.
Reform 8% in London and 4% in Scotland they must be at 30% in some regions? And if so how can that be only 6 seats max? especially as the tories collapse
Suppose you have votes split between four parties: 30-30-30-10. We'll call them red, blue, teal and yellow respectively.
The teal and yellow parties have 30% and 10% everywhere. The red and blue parties both have 40% in half the seats and 20% in the other half. Red and blue share all the seats, teal and yellow get nothing.
Reform can fail to win lots of seats simply by one, or another, of the other parties having more votes in each seat. They may not lose many deposits, but win very few seats.
Are the MRPs taking into account that REFORM and the Brexit parties are basically the same parties?
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem was our need rather than contribution based welfare system. Fix that and part of the pull that brings lower earning workers into the UK disappears.
As I pointed out before one of the biggest culprits in the Brexit story was Blair / Brown not fixing that issue back in 2002/5...
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Labour 55%, Conservative 22%, LD 10%, Reform 8%, Greens 5%.
Since 2019, that's Labour +6, Conservative -10, LD -5, Reform +6.5, Green +2
A swing of 8% from Conservative to Labour and 2.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat so not the big moves we've seen in other parts of the country. We did see from the Holborn & St Pancras poll yesterday some Green strength and Labour weakness in Inner London and I expect we're seeing stronger Labour scores in Outer London.
Just to remind you, I have the following London bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10 Romford – CON 6/4
Apart from Croydon East, which has gone - I'm concerned about Harrow East but I'm happy with the other five and while we can see the Conservatives being reduced from the 21 sats they won last time down to single figures, I don't see a wipeout on these numbers.
Reform 8% in London and 4% in Scotland they must be at 30% in some regions? And if so how can that be only 6 seats max? especially as the tories collapse
Suppose you have votes split between four parties: 30-30-30-10. We'll call them red, blue, teal and yellow respectively.
The teal and yellow parties have 30% and 10% everywhere. The red and blue parties both have 40% in half the seats and 20% in the other half. Red and blue share all the seats, teal and yellow get nothing.
Reform can fail to win lots of seats simply by one, or another, of the other parties having more votes in each seat. They may not lose many deposits, but win very few seats.
Are the MRPs taking into account that REFORM and the Brexit parties are basically the same parties?
It doesn't help given the number of constituencies where Brexit didn't stand back in 2019...
Labour 55%, Conservative 22%, LD 10%, Reform 8%, Greens 5%.
Since 2019, that's Labour +6, Conservative -10, LD -5, Reform +6.5, Green +2
A swing of 8% from Conservative to Labour and 2.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat so not the big moves we've seen in other parts of the country. We did see from the Holborn & St Pancras poll yesterday some Green strength and Labour weakness in Inner London and I expect we're seeing stronger Labour scores in Outer London.
Just to remind you, I have the following London bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10 Romford – CON 6/4
Apart from Croydon East, which has gone - I'm concerned about Harrow East but I'm happy with the other five and while we can see the Conservatives being reduced from the 21 sats they won last time down to single figures, I don't see a wipeout on these numbers.
This poll is the perfect illustration of what's going on at this election. The reason the Tories are down so much overall is because of a swing to Ref, but because Farage's party is much less popular in London, the Tories are correspondingly doing much better. On the other hand, Lab +6 is pretty much the same as the rest of the country.
Labour 55%, Conservative 22%, LD 10%, Reform 8%, Greens 5%.
Since 2019, that's Labour +6, Conservative -10, LD -5, Reform +6.5, Green +2
A swing of 8% from Conservative to Labour and 2.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat so not the big moves we've seen in other parts of the country. We did see from the Holborn & St Pancras poll yesterday some Green strength and Labour weakness in Inner London and I expect we're seeing stronger Labour scores in Outer London.
Just to remind you, I have the following London bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10 Romford – CON 6/4
Apart from Croydon East, which has gone - I'm concerned about Harrow East but I'm happy with the other five and while we can see the Conservatives being reduced from the 21 sats they won last time down to single figures, I don't see a wipeout on these numbers.
Reform 8% in London and 4% in Scotland they must be at 30% in some regions? And if so how can that be only 6 seats max? especially as the tories collapse
Suppose you have votes split between four parties: 30-30-30-10. We'll call them red, blue, teal and yellow respectively.
The teal and yellow parties have 30% and 10% everywhere. The red and blue parties both have 40% in half the seats and 20% in the other half. Red and blue share all the seats, teal and yellow get nothing.
Reform can fail to win lots of seats simply by one, or another, of the other parties having more votes in each seat. They may not lose many deposits, but win very few seats.
Are the MRPs taking into account that REFORM and the Brexit parties are basically the same parties?
I think at least some of them are, but this will tend to lead them astray in Tory-held seats where BXP didn't stand in 2019.
But mostly the MRP approach uses the demographics of each seat, not the electoral history.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
However, PoliticsHome soon discovered that many of those milling around the beach were campaigning for the party in the area despite not describing themselves as Lib Dems.
“I would describe myself as left-wing Labour,” local resident Christine told PoliticsHome. Christine, like most of the people gathered here, has been canvassing for the Lib Dems over the last few weeks.
As a traditional Labour supporter on the left of the party, does she think the Lib Dems are actually now to the political left of Labour? “I think they are to be honest,” she replied, adding that she also perceived Ed Davey as “much more approachable” than Starmer in the election debates.
This is why I’m still pretty bullish on the Lib Dems beating the Tories. I still think it’s value. The tactical vote this year is gonna far eclipse anything we’ve seen before - all the conditions are there for it.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Labour 55%, Conservative 22%, LD 10%, Reform 8%, Greens 5%.
Since 2019, that's Labour +6, Conservative -10, LD -5, Reform +6.5, Green +2
A swing of 8% from Conservative to Labour and 2.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat so not the big moves we've seen in other parts of the country. We did see from the Holborn & St Pancras poll yesterday some Green strength and Labour weakness in Inner London and I expect we're seeing stronger Labour scores in Outer London.
Just to remind you, I have the following London bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10 Romford – CON 6/4
Apart from Croydon East, which has gone - I'm concerned about Harrow East but I'm happy with the other five and while we can see the Conservatives being reduced from the 21 sats they won last time down to single figures, I don't see a wipeout on these numbers.
Reform 8% in London and 4% in Scotland they must be at 30% in some regions? And if so how can that be only 6 seats max? especially as the tories collapse
Suppose you have votes split between four parties: 30-30-30-10. We'll call them red, blue, teal and yellow respectively.
The teal and yellow parties have 30% and 10% everywhere. The red and blue parties both have 40% in half the seats and 20% in the other half. Red and blue share all the seats, teal and yellow get nothing.
Reform can fail to win lots of seats simply by one, or another, of the other parties having more votes in each seat. They may not lose many deposits, but win very few seats.
Are the MRPs taking into account that REFORM and the Brexit parties are basically the same parties?
Yes, and the word "basically" isn't needed. It is exactly the same party.
Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants (and the Irish)
Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts. If someone claims that black is white, then, yes, they are an idiot, or they are trying to deceive idiots, and one shouldn't be afraid to call them out.
With regard to climate change, you can reasonably argue it's not worth the cost of dealing with it, or that maybe it won't be so bad, or that we are not obliged to bail out our descendants. Hitchens, however, is disputing the basic science from a point of apparently complete ignorance. He has no idea what he is talking about, and only a fool would give him any credence.
Remember that MrEd/TheKitchenCabinet/MisterBedfrdshire is himself a Trumpian shill. So view his posts through that prism…
Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants (and the Irish)
Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts. If someone claims that black is white, then, yes, they are an idiot, or they are trying to deceive idiots, and one shouldn't be afraid to call them out.
With regard to climate change, you can reasonably argue it's not worth the cost of dealing with it, or that maybe it won't be so bad, or that we are not obliged to bail out our descendants. Hitchens, however, is disputing the basic science from a point of apparently complete ignorance. He has no idea what he is talking about, and only a fool would give him any credence.
Remember that MrEd/TheKitchenCabinet/MisterBedfrdshire is himself a Trumpian shill. So view his posts through that prism…
IIUC TheKitchenCabinet and MisterBedfordshire are not the same person
Correct. I am not Mr Ed either. I would need the Correct Horse Battery to be a talking horse.
(For yhe avoidance of doubt I am not CorrectBatteryHorse either)
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Well essentially, by numbers at least, Britain elected for FOM++++ in recent times.
Changes made by Cleverly/Sunak are expected to cut inbound immigration numbers significantly, even if Cooper/Starmer do nothing.
Starmer has pledged to reduce immigration but refused to concede a target.
In an era of shrinking populations there is going to be a global race for youthful talent. How to balance that with the negative effects of unchecked mass migration, and the need to repair trading relations with Europe?
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Some sighs of relief at CCHQ they remain over 100 seats I expect and well ahead of the LDs, although obviously still terrible, not apocalyptic at least.
Great poll for Labour, 450 would be even higher than the number of MPs Blair won. OK for the LDs who are back to Ashdown and early Kennedy levels.
Poor poll for Reform, only 1 seat, Clacton and not great for SNP either as they lose over half their seats
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
A lot of ppl think Rejoin is very difficult because the process officially entails adopting the Euro, Schengen, etc - things that even many Rejoiners don’t want.
But here’s the thing. If we asked the EU for a return to the 2015 status quo ante…the worst they could do is say no?
I understand that it wouldn’t be able to happen overnight. But if it would be a net GDP benefit to both the UK and the EU… could they not acquiesce? Or agree to something close to it, eventually?
Some would say “The EU would only allow the UK back in under the same terms as everyone else” because if it let us pick and choose, then other countries would demand the same.
But isn’t this partially negated by the ability of the EU to say to any country who wants to leave in the future, “Well look, the UK tried to leave, they regretted it, so much that we both went back to how things were before.”
I’ve long been a believer that 90% of Brexiteers cared predominantly about immigration - yes, austerity/a desire for levelling up etc might have motivated voters but I imagine many of those would probably prefer to be back in the EU now.
I don’t know whether Labour’s plan for closer integration basically gets us eventually to some kind of ‘rejoining in all but name’ which might satisfy people enough on both sides.
I think if the Lib Dems are the official opposition it could certainly accelerate calls to outright rejoin. Electorally it seems lucrative way to try and eat into the Labour vote and differentiate them from Starmer’s Govt.
Unicorns.
You've dumped your ex in a very acrimonious way, with lots of bad stuff said by both parties. Your life has gone to shit, you are poorer, depressed etc.
Your ex is angry, but she has moved on.
And now, you ring her up and say "hey babes, look, lets just forget I ever dumper you, can we go back to how it was?"
How is that going to go?
Very poor analogy, though, since neither dumber or dumpee are the same entities as they were back in 2016.
Countries and multinational associations are not particularly comparable to individuals. You're going down Leon's ridiculous 'Brexit is like having a baby' rabbit hole.
And the original idea would be disastrous for the EU - If it was believed that someone who left could rejoin as before, the barriers to leaving would be negligible: "Oh lets give it a go and if we don't like it we'll just say it was all just a dream".
After observing our experience of the last decade, who on earth would believe that ?
The barriers to leaving or (re)joining are far more matters of practicality than pure legislation. Note I've said anything myself about our rejoining during today's discussion. I'm just noting merely that the prospect being raised seems to prompt a rash of irrationally definitive arguments in response.
At the moment rejoining is never a thinkable prospect. What is thinkable within 5-10 years is a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum to get permission for the UK government to enter discussions about our relationships WRT EU/EEA/EFTA on condition that the full text of any proposed deal would be the subject of a second referendum.
The Brexit referendum result has one fruitful outcome: No-one can believe that either the UK government nor the EU can 'fix' a referendum result with the UK, even if it can happen with so many other countries. So there is a chance of the process being worthy of trust.
(Outcome: EFTA/EEA membership, as should have happened by about 2018.)
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
MRPs work in the same way. None of them can do much to successfully model Islington N. That's not a reason to dismiss their predictions more generally.
My gut says Reform UK and the Greens will do better than 1 apiece. (My gut is not reliable and can't even cope with a bit of gluten, so DYOR.)
Bury St Edmunds is very very close according to all the MRPs.
As it should be given we are heading for a 1997 landslide defeat for the Tories at best and in 1997 the Tory majority in Bury St Edmunds was just 368.
I think Tanner will hold on though, he has some connections to the area at least unlike Holden in Basildon and Billericay who I think will lose, his family are Suffolk farmers. So while Labour probably edge it in the city itself Tanner should win enough of the rural part of the constituency to win it overall
Bury isn't a city, its a town, a quite small one
It should be, one of only 3 towns in the UK with a cathedral that does not have city status and it has an old Abbey as well.
Though you are right, apologies
It's always mooted as a contender when new city opps appear. It's a very pleasant little town though
Retirement home of Lord Tebbit too (who may vote Reform I expect)
I would hope not, young HY. Not if he is a member of the House of Lords.....
His house is in the close, I didn't say he was in a care home
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Isn't it the way with MRPs that some of the individual seat predictions are a bit peculiar, nut the overall picture is pretty accurate?
Yes. You wouldn't expect an MRP to predict whether an independent candidate would win a specific seat. Most people with the same demographic as Islington live all over the country in seats where Corbyn is not a candidate.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
Obviously France is a third world country.
They have oil too and weapons of mass destruction that could hit us within 45 minute too, we should invade.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Some sighs of relief at CCHQ they remain over 100 seats I expect and well ahead of the LDs, although obviously still terrible, not apocalyptic at least.
Great poll for Labour, 450 would be even higher than the number of MPs Blair won. OK for the LDs who are back to Ashdown and early Kennedy levels.
Poor poll for Reform, only 1 seat, Clacton and not great for SNP either as they lose over half their seats
It's not rational- it just follows from having eight fingers and two thumbs- but 100 feels like an important threshold. Above that, the Conservatives (just about) live to fight another day. Below that, even if they are still in second place, and the death spiral may have begun.
But golly gosh, it would be a Terrible Night for the Tories. Probably hasn't really sunk in how terrible.
Redfield poll of 10,000 people out at 5pm, looks like fieldwork will account for Farage Putin comments (but they might not have cut through entirely at time of asking?)
Redfield poll 4 days ago: LAB 42 REF 19 CON 18 LIB 11 GRN 5
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Isn't it the way with MRPs that some of the individual seat predictions are a bit peculiar, nut the overall picture is pretty accurate?
Yes, in that sense it's similar to the exit poll. Good at overall numbers, but doesn't mean each seat will be correctly forecast. But they balance each other out overall.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
Bloody stupid comparison. The UK accepts 98% of asylum claims that's why and most of Europe including France.
British people retiring to the south of France or the Costa Del Sol are not escaping poverty and violence.
(we do however need to reduce the rate of asylum granted back to what they were under Labour).
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
Obviously France is a third world country.
They have oil too and weapons of mass destruction that could hit us within 45 minute too, we should invade.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
NEW: Former Secretary General of NATO George Robertson - who Farage has pointed to as supporting his view - tells @TomSwarbrick1 Nigel Farage is talking "total nonsense".
Says Farage + far right "cuddling up to Kremlin" - accuses him of "appeasement"
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
MRPs work in the same way. None of them can do much to successfully model Islington N. That's not a reason to dismiss their predictions more generally.
My gut says Reform UK and the Greens will do better than 1 apiece. (My gut is not reliable and can't even cope with a bit of gluten, so DYOR.)
If Reform get to high teens they'll win a handful at least
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
That we are in uncharted territory is shown by the fact that these figures look pretty good for the Tories. For myself, I would rather go with Meeks's guess of 75.
Committed an assault and documented it? Not the brightest.
A right to roam in England will be difficult.
There is a lot more land next to urban sprawl and plenty of anti-social behaviour to go with it.
There is also a right of way network which doesn't really exist in Scotland and we already have access land in some suitable places.
Extend Access Land? - yes. A blanket right to roam? - a recipe for trouble.
Yep - I agree it's a can or worms, which I think is why New Labour only went so far.
AIUI the Scottish setup has been quite effective, so that is a good, but maybe partial due to population density etc, model.
The RoW network is very badly neglected, with some bizarre general practices such as newly created publicly funded multiuser paths not being dedicated as RoWs. The current Govt has been as chaotic about this, as they are about everything else - with for example Theresa Coffey being a patsy for the landowner lobby.
My preference is for the role of LHAs to be broadened to be Public Highway bodies, rather than "Roads" Bodies with nods to other things, and public highway policing to become a statutory responsibility of police forces.
Access land in England is a mess - there are hundreds of areas of access land everywhere which cannot be reached without trespassing to get there. There's a good video by Paul Whitewick on that issue here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0GiPtOHI7U
It all seems ripe for a tidy up, and it will be popular with pretty much all of Sir Keir Starmer's support base. I don't see a political downside for him.
Agree, a tidy up would be good.
I'm not averse to a bit of trespass myself depending on the circumstances but I always do so responsibly.
A number of RoWs round here are impassible to sane people (very high vegetation, rutted and swampy) but also have very rare plants on them which would not benefit from them being cleared and surfaced.
We were asked to collect some seeds for Kew from one.
Poor maintainance of signage and stiles / gates is endemic, though, and that could be fixed with a few quid.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Some sighs of relief at CCHQ they remain over 100 seats I expect and well ahead of the LDs, although obviously still terrible, not apocalyptic at least.
Great poll for Labour, 450 would be even higher than the number of MPs Blair won. OK for the LDs who are back to Ashdown and early Kennedy levels.
Poor poll for Reform, only 1 seat, Clacton and not great for SNP either as they lose over half their seats
It's not rational- it just follows from having eight fingers and two thumbs- but 100 feels like an important threshold. Above that, the Conservatives (just about) live to fight another day. Below that, even if they are still in second place, and the death spiral may have begun.
But golly gosh, it would be a Terrible Night for the Tories. Probably hasn't really sunk in how terrible.
Actually, it probably doesn't realistically matter much.
Labour is going to be in power for about a Scottish Generation. About 13-18 years. Then the Tories will return.
Whether it be 5, 50, 100, 150 or 200 seats probably won't affect that calculation much.
I hate going too much off precedent, but whatever precedent you look at its about the same
1997 style defeat? 13 years to regain Downing Street. Reverse-1931 style defeat? 14 years to regain Downing Street. Canada 1993? 13 years before Stephen Harper's Conservatives won the election.
Bury St Edmunds is very very close according to all the MRPs.
As it should be given we are heading for a 1997 landslide defeat for the Tories at best and in 1997 the Tory majority in Bury St Edmunds was just 368.
I think Tanner will hold on though, he has some connections to the area at least unlike Holden in Basildon and Billericay who I think will lose, his family are Suffolk farmers. So while Labour probably edge it in the city itself Tanner should win enough of the rural part of the constituency to win it overall
Bury isn't a city, its a town, a quite small one
It should be, one of only 3 towns in the UK with a cathedral that does not have city status and it has an old Abbey as well.
Though you are right, apologies
It's always mooted as a contender when new city opps appear. It's a very pleasant little town though
Retirement home of Lord Tebbit too (who may vote Reform I expect)
I would hope not, young HY. Not if he is a member of the House of Lords.....
His house is in the close, I didn't say he was in a care home
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
Bloody stupid comparison. The UK accepts 98% of asylum claims that's why and most of Europe including France.
British people retiring to the south of France or the Costa Del Sol are not escaping poverty and violence.
(we do however need to reduce the rate of asylum granted back to what they were under Labour).
The people on boats only claim asylum when caught. They are trying to join the black economy here.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Some sighs of relief at CCHQ they remain over 100 seats I expect and well ahead of the LDs, although obviously still terrible, not apocalyptic at least.
Great poll for Labour, 450 would be even higher than the number of MPs Blair won. OK for the LDs who are back to Ashdown and early Kennedy levels.
Poor poll for Reform, only 1 seat, Clacton and not great for SNP either as they lose over half their seats
It's not rational- it just follows from having eight fingers and two thumbs- but 100 feels like an important threshold. Above that, the Conservatives (just about) live to fight another day. Below that, even if they are still in second place, and the death spiral may have begun.
But golly gosh, it would be a Terrible Night for the Tories. Probably hasn't really sunk in how terrible.
Actually, it probably doesn't realistically matter much.
Labour is going to be in power for about a Scottish Generation. About 13-18 years. Then the Tories will return.
Whether it be 5, 50, 100, 150 or 200 seats probably won't affect that calculation much.
I hate going too much off precedent, but whatever precedent you look at its about the same
1997 style defeat? 13 years to regain Downing Street. Reverse-1931 style defeat? 14 years to regain Downing Street. Canada 1993? 13 years before Stephen Harper's Conservatives won the election.
Except Harper was ex Reform, the Conservatives that won in Canada in 2006 were not the same as the Tories that lost in 1993.
Indeed Reform's successor party the Canadian Alliance effectively took over the Canadian Tories in 2003 to create the new Conservative Party of Canada which formed a government under Harper
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Damn tories survive on those numbers.
I am confident Greens will get more than 1
The current trend of Reform % going up should mean they get more than 1 too
In theory, in practice Reform canvass data accuracy and GOTV effort will likely be the worst of the main parties
I think what Reform needed to really stick the landing, aside from Farage not making the dumb Putin comments, was one more debate appearance nearer the end of the campaign.
And also, a concrete memorable policy that wasn’t immigration related, but that won over more moderate voters instead. The £20k personal allowance could have been that but they needed something stronger.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Lab gets a landslide and a decade in power, Con survive and have something to rebuild from, Lib returns to being the third biggest party, Green hang on to their seat and Nige arrives in Westminster on how own and resigns Clacton to peruse a lucrative career in America by Christmas.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
Last night a Russian missile hit a warehouse in Odesa. Did this warehouse hold Ukrainian drones? Ammunition for HIMARS? Other vital military equipment?
No. It was a warehouse for a grocery chain, from which food and beverages were distributed.
A few nights previously Ukrainian missiles hit a warehouse and training complex in Russia. It's now reported that they destroyed an estimated 110 drones of various explosive and reconnaissance types, as well as causing other damage.
The Russian targeting remains bafflingly erratic and ineffective.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
So you're saying its just regular migration desires which should go through regular processes the same as everyone else and nothing to do with asylum then?
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
Bloody stupid comparison. The UK accepts 98% of asylum claims that's why and most of Europe including France.
British people retiring to the south of France or the Costa Del Sol are not escaping poverty and violence.
(we do however need to reduce the rate of asylum granted back to what they were under Labour).
The UK does not accept 98% of asylum claims. Don't make stuff up. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/ has figures This says, "In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%)."
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Some sighs of relief at CCHQ they remain over 100 seats I expect and well ahead of the LDs, although obviously still terrible, not apocalyptic at least.
Great poll for Labour, 450 would be even higher than the number of MPs Blair won. OK for the LDs who are back to Ashdown and early Kennedy levels.
Poor poll for Reform, only 1 seat, Clacton and not great for SNP either as they lose over half their seats
It's not rational- it just follows from having eight fingers and two thumbs- but 100 feels like an important threshold. Above that, the Conservatives (just about) live to fight another day. Below that, even if they are still in second place, and the death spiral may have begun.
But golly gosh, it would be a Terrible Night for the Tories. Probably hasn't really sunk in how terrible.
Actually, it probably doesn't realistically matter much.
Labour is going to be in power for about a Scottish Generation. About 13-18 years. Then the Tories will return.
Whether it be 5, 50, 100, 150 or 200 seats probably won't affect that calculation much.
I hate going too much off precedent, but whatever precedent you look at its about the same
1997 style defeat? 13 years to regain Downing Street. Reverse-1931 style defeat? 14 years to regain Downing Street. Canada 1993? 13 years before Stephen Harper's Conservatives won the election.
I think if we should learn anything from Johnson's large majority turning into a massive majority for Labour within a single parliament - it's that a large majority is not necessarily something that is slowly whittled away anymore and may be something that violently swings. I think many here have noted that whilst Labour are doing well in the polls that is more down to Tory collapse than any specific interest in what Labour is selling. Should they fail to make the changes needed to make people feel more secure in their lives, I could imagine a situation where they too get slung out in a rather undignified manner - especially if the Tory bogeyman is diminished and a decent fight on the left is put up by the Greens or LDs.
Labour 55%, Conservative 22%, LD 10%, Reform 8%, Greens 5%.
Since 2019, that's Labour +6, Conservative -10, LD -5, Reform +6.5, Green +2
A swing of 8% from Conservative to Labour and 2.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat so not the big moves we've seen in other parts of the country. We did see from the Holborn & St Pancras poll yesterday some Green strength and Labour weakness in Inner London and I expect we're seeing stronger Labour scores in Outer London.
Just to remind you, I have the following London bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10 Romford – CON 6/4
Apart from Croydon East, which has gone - I'm concerned about Harrow East but I'm happy with the other five and while we can see the Conservatives being reduced from the 21 sats they won last time down to single figures, I don't see a wipeout on these numbers.
This poll is the perfect illustration of what's going on at this election. The reason the Tories are down so much overall is because of a swing to Ref, but because Farage's party is much less popular in London, the Tories are correspondingly doing much better. On the other hand, Lab +6 is pretty much the same as the rest of the country.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
Bloody stupid comparison. The UK accepts 98% of asylum claims that's why and most of Europe including France.
British people retiring to the south of France or the Costa Del Sol are not escaping poverty and violence.
(we do however need to reduce the rate of asylum granted back to what they were under Labour).
The people on boats only claim asylum when caught. They are trying to join the black economy here.
Government figures say very few coming over on small boats are disappearing into the black economy. Most claim asylum.
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
I love France to bits but CDG is so chaotically designed.
Designed? They've basically flung things together in a way that worked at the time with no thought to the future.
I used to have to go land side via the staff lane to make a connection because the airside transfer from the terminal I landed at to the terminal I needed to be at took 50 minutes and I had a 60 minute connection...
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Lab gets a landslide and a decade in power, Con survive and have something to rebuild from, Lib returns to being the third biggest party, Green hang on to their seat and Nige arrives in Westminster on how own and resigns Clacton to peruse a lucrative career in America by Christmas.
Everyone's happy/relieved? Except for the SNP?
16 for the SNP is still a lot more than the 6 MPs they had in 2010. I think it's just about in, "not as bad as it might have been," territory for them.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
So you're saying its just regular migration desires which should go through regular processes the same as everyone else and nothing to do with asylum then?
No. You can be in need of asylum and still have a rational, personal reason to prefer one country to another.
If a large meteorite struck the UK and I was in need of a new country to live in, Denmark would be a better choice for me than Norway, because I have family in Denmark.
If you were designing a global asylum system from scratch, would you completely omit the wishes of the refugee, or would you include it? If the former, do you really think it's preferable for me to end up in Norway while another person who has family in Norway ends up in Denmark?
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
Only a week and a bit left. Then we can enjoy the years of reconstruction.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Damn tories survive on those numbers.
I am confident Greens will get more than 1
The current trend of Reform % going up should mean they get more than 1 too
The thing about the Greens is I keep hearing and seeing positive things about the campaigns in Bristol, Waveny and Herefordshire - but I'm also used to these positive noises and nothing ever materialising - and it being very localised and therefore not really noticeable from the national polling.
I'm sure we'll have more than 1 seat - but where we'll gain and how many I'm still not clear on...
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Lab gets a landslide and a decade in power, Con survive and have something to rebuild from, Lib returns to being the third biggest party, Green hang on to their seat and Nige arrives in Westminster on how own and resigns Clacton to peruse a lucrative career in America by Christmas.
Everyone's happy/relieved? Except for the SNP?
If you are the Lib Dems right now you do not take 50 seats and 3rd.
Yes, it won’t be easy to overturn the Tories and form the opposition - but it’s certainly in play now - and doing so could absolutely transform the future of the Lib Dems. Whereas 50 seats doesn’t really get you anywhere that 30-40 wouldn’t.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
It’s more to with actually getting a job. Plenty of people working in the U.K. don’t speak very much, if any, English.
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
Can some party activists not launch a coup at CCHQ? March in, round the idiots up and expel them from the building?
Last time I was at CDG I remember coming down an escalator into a holding area that was far too small, and since the escalator was crowded with passengers it almost caused a dangerous crush at the bottom. Very poor design. They may have improved it since then.
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
At this stage, the only people voting Tory are doing so in wilful defiance of Rishi “Danger” Sunak, James “Two Brains” Forsyth, and Isaac “Hannibal” Levido.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Lab gets a landslide and a decade in power, Con survive and have something to rebuild from, Lib returns to being the third biggest party, Green hang on to their seat and Nige arrives in Westminster on how own and resigns Clacton to peruse a lucrative career in America by Christmas.
Everyone's happy/relieved? Except for the SNP?
Even some SNP. Kate Forbes would be secretly delighted with that as it makes her heir apparent when Swinney likely loses the next Scottish Parliament election on a similar SNP to SLab swing too and has to follow Yousaf and resign
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
So you're saying its just regular migration desires which should go through regular processes the same as everyone else and nothing to do with asylum then?
It's quite possible to be both fleeing persecution and looking for the optimum destination. Consider: if you were forced to flee the UK, would you be happy to stay in any random, albeit safe, country, or would you try to get to a place where you already had some connection?
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
It’s more to with actually getting a job. Plenty of people working in the U.K. don’t speak very much, if any, English.
It's also to do with actually looking for a job as well.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
Tautology. The first reasons you give are objective merits.
Bury St Edmunds is very very close according to all the MRPs.
As it should be given we are heading for a 1997 landslide defeat for the Tories at best and in 1997 the Tory majority in Bury St Edmunds was just 368.
I think Tanner will hold on though, he has some connections to the area at least unlike Holden in Basildon and Billericay who I think will lose, his family are Suffolk farmers. So while Labour probably edge it in the city itself Tanner should win enough of the rural part of the constituency to win it overall
Bury isn't a city, its a town, a quite small one
It should be, one of only 3 towns in the UK with a cathedral that does not have city status and it has an old Abbey as well.
Though you are right, apologies
It's always mooted as a contender when new city opps appear. It's a very pleasant little town though
Retirement home of Lord Tebbit too (who may vote Reform I expect)
I would hope not, young HY. Not if he is a member of the House of Lords.....
His house is in the close, I didn't say he was in a care home
He is a peer, is he not? So ...
The lunches and claret are rather better in the Lords than your average care home...
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
At this stage, the only people voting Tory are doing so in wilful defiance of Rishi “Danger” Sunak, James “Two Brains” Forsyth, and Isaac “Hannibal” Levido.
I really rated James Forsyth as a political journalist.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
So you're saying its just regular migration desires which should go through regular processes the same as everyone else and nothing to do with asylum then?
It's an interesting question this, because I think our failure to understand humans as 3 dimensional beings means we put people into mutually exclusive groups like bona fide asylum seekers, economic migrants, illegals etc. In reality people will have a mixture of motivations for leaving a country and going elsewhere. Fear of violence might well be combined with hope for a better life for their children.
I'd take as illustrations of this some of the asylum seekers my parents spend time with at the reception centre near their village. One family: Iranian, 2 parents and a young daughter. They left because the husband was imprisoned for a couple of years for blasphemy-related crimes and beaten up a few times by regime thugs, but they are also intensely ambitious for their daughter who by all accounts is a bit of a child prodigy. She will go far, and will have opportunities here that she would never have had in Iran.
They came across in a small boat as that was the only viable option, though nowhere near the cheapest. They first had to get out of Iran without the authorities noticing. Why come to the UK? Because they had relatives here. Could they have fled to Turkey or Azerbaijan or Armenia and just stayed there? Probably, but the new life would be a very different one, quite possibly under canvas.
Last time I was at CDG I remember coming down an escalator into a holding area that was far too small, and since the escalator was crowded with passengers it almost caused a dangerous crush at the bottom. Very poor design. They may have improved it since then.
They haven’t.
It suffers from a general French propensity to “design for design’s sake” in defiance of actual utility. This, despite a great tradition in engineering.
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
Only a week and a bit left. Then we can enjoy the years of reconstruction.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Damn tories survive on those numbers.
I am confident Greens will get more than 1
The current trend of Reform % going up should mean they get more than 1 too
The thing about the Greens is I keep hearing and seeing positive things about the campaigns in Bristol, Waveny and Herefordshire - but I'm also used to these positive noises and nothing ever materialising - and it being very localised and therefore not really noticeable from the national polling.
I'm sure we'll have more than 1 seat - but where we'll gain and how many I'm still not clear on...
If the Greens ended up with zero seats I don't think it would be that surprising - loss of the Lucas personal vote in Brighton, plus the problems with the council, falling just short in Bristol Central being a harsh lesson in the difference between local and national elections, t'other seats demonstrating that Tory voters are a bit more conservative about changing their view then they often seem.
Two seats might be more likely than zero, but I wouldn't rule zero out.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Lab gets a landslide and a decade in power, Con survive and have something to rebuild from, Lib returns to being the third biggest party, Green hang on to their seat and Nige arrives in Westminster on how own and resigns Clacton to peruse a lucrative career in America by Christmas.
Everyone's happy/relieved? Except for the SNP?
If you are the Lib Dems right now you do not take 50 seats and 3rd.
Yes, it won’t be easy to overturn the Tories and form the opposition - but it’s certainly in play now - and doing so could absolutely transform the future of the Lib Dems. Whereas 50 seats doesn’t really get you anywhere that 30-40 wouldn’t.
Considering what happened to the Lib-Dems in 2015, 50 seats is pretty decent.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Damn tories survive on those numbers.
I am confident Greens will get more than 1
The current trend of Reform % going up should mean they get more than 1 too
The thing about the Greens is I keep hearing and seeing positive things about the campaigns in Bristol, Waveny and Herefordshire - but I'm also used to these positive noises and nothing ever materialising - and it being very localised and therefore not really noticeable from the national polling.
I'm sure we'll have more than 1 seat - but where we'll gain and how many I'm still not clear on...
My head canon says between 0 and 4 Green seats. They are wildly overperforming but I think are slowly shedding support: peaked too early. We will see.
I guess it means that today’s FocalData poll is quite down on the Tories, then?
Also that 20.5% for Reform…I wonder if Reform might enjoy a surge in the polls for the next couple of days, because their fieldwork will come before Farage’s Putin comments? Some trading opportunities potentially.
When is FocalData coming out? Imagine it shows Reform rising.....
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
Lab gets a landslide and a decade in power, Con survive and have something to rebuild from, Lib returns to being the third biggest party, Green hang on to their seat and Nige arrives in Westminster on how own and resigns Clacton to peruse a lucrative career in America by Christmas.
Everyone's happy/relieved? Except for the SNP?
Don't think we should predict a decade in power for Labour just yet, even if they win a majority of a zillion. The electorate have been incredibly volatile these last few elections. The Tories won a 80 seat majority just 5 years ago after all, and now.........
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
At this stage, the only people voting Tory are doing so in wilful defiance of Rishi “Danger” Sunak, James “Two Brains” Forsyth, and Isaac “Hannibal” Levido.
I really rated James Forsyth as a political journalist.
So did I, but his utility was solely down to his friend and familial connections. Post-Sunak he will find it difficult.
Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants.
Anthropogenic climate change is happening - that is a fact. The main issue is how to tackle the issue. The neoliberals want to allow big business to thrive whilst also paying lip service to the idea of being environmentally friendly, so they move taxes onto consumers rather than producers of CO2 - the petrol hikes that many rural Europeans so despise because it makes rural living more expensive is a good example of this. The right / far right want to pretend climate change isn't happening and move on to a scarcity model of politics - there isn't enough left for the Volk, so we must kick out the foreigner (and the dissenters who aren't really people like us anyway). The left propose the only viable alternative - investment in renewable energy and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This will mean huge phase shifts (reduced plastic use, reduced usage of hydrocarbon based fertilisers, etc), but at least the left are willing to say what the problem is (excess production and consumption for the benefit of capital) and where to get the resources to tackle the issue (those who already hoard capital) without having to scapegoat immigrants.
There is another option and that's to value sustainability and ecological impact beside profit as a business motive. It's no good making money if you're destroying the world. Supporting businesses which are ecologically sustainable and seek to mitigate the impact of climate change would be sensible options for a more business-oriented Government and if that means companies who refuse to be sustainable go to the wall so be it.
There is a fine line but Govenrment can also be about influencing public behaviour and educating people as to what is happening, why it is happening and the consequences especially for those parts of the world where the impacts are more keenly and immediately felt.
We too face issues from rising sea levels and a climate with more frequent extremes of weather and that means sensible thinking on houses including not building housing developments on flood plains.
The problem with capitalistic growth is that it is ideologically wedded not only to profit, but ever growing profit, which demand ever more extraction and squeezing of labour, along with increasingly trying to foist externalities onto public coffers (or ignoring them completely) makes it really difficult. Already we have right wingers and big businesses saying there is too much green tape and regulation etc. We also know that consumption and CO2 production is skewwed heavily towards the extremely wealthy - both globally and within individual nations. The answer, more equitable distribution of resources and an overall decrease in consumption reliant on fossil fuels, doesn't really square with the continuation of the profit motive as it currently exists.
You don't believe in net zero, do you?
If we have net zero, why do we need "equitable distribution of resources" for climate reasons, considering we can scale up or down consumption/production and anything times zero equals zero.
If we don't have net zero, how do we stop climate change?
If you were serious about tackling climate change, you wouldn't believe any of the garbage you're spouting.
I mean, I don't think globally we're going to get to net zero because many of the people saying we will are hoping carbon capture works better than it currently does - atm efficiency is too low to depend on it. So to get to net zero it will not just be countries sequestering any carbon output to equal zero (as the tech to sequester is currently not good enough), it will require a reduction in emissions. Reduction in emissions will require a reduction in production and consumption. If the logic of growth for the average worker is "you get a smaller slice, but we'll grow the pie", the logic of static growth or even degrowth for the average worker should be "you get a bigger slice, but we're slowly shrinking the pie". That will have to come via wealth redistribution - those who have a huge amount will have to give up their hoarded resources for the benefits of those who have less or none.
Sheffield is the one large UK city I haven’t been to. In my imagination it is the rocky, sylvan “Gateway to the Peaks”. A kind of Yorkshire Grenoble, with the iconic Park Hill flats, the storied Peace Garden, and the world-famous Documentary Festival. Small children ferry bottles of Henderson’s Relish from chip shop to chip shop.
Britain is not even joining the Single Market until some kind of arrangement on freedom of movement can be made.
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amendable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
The biggest problem with Free Movement is that if it ever returns everyone in Britain will flee
Lol
If the U.K. is so shit relative to Europe, why is it that people are paying savage organised crime syndicates the equivalent of the price of a house (in their home country) to get into the U.K. from France? By extremely (and obviously) dangerous routes, no less.
This question has already been answered a zillion times. If you have connections in the UK, speak some English and thus have a chance of earning a living there, you'd obviously want to go there. It has little to do with the objective merits or otherwise of the UK and France. This is quite obvious to anyone who takes a moment to think of the migrants as actual people.
So you're saying its just regular migration desires which should go through regular processes the same as everyone else and nothing to do with asylum then?
It's quite possible to be both fleeing persecution and looking for the optimum destination. Consider: if you were forced to flee the UK, would you be happy to stay in any random, albeit safe, country, or would you try to get to a place where you already had some connection?
What someone wants and what someone gets are often not the same thing.
If someone is forced to seek asylum then yes any random, albeit safe, country provides that.
If someone desires to migrate to the UK specifically that then desire should be processed the same as every other potential migrant who specifically desires to migrate here, for whatever reason.
Comments
Of course, related to our parallel chat, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Simple question: Do you believe in net zero, yes or no?
I do, thanks to clean technologies. That is the only viable solution for the environment, your dogma is bad for the environment.
Voting intentions of GB News viewers, by JL Partners:
🔴 LABOUR: 38% (-8)
🟣 REFORM: 25% (+7)
🔵 CON: 24% (-2)
🟠 LIB DEM: 8% (-2)
🟢 GREEN: 3% (+1)
June 17-20th, sample of 520 current or recent GB News viewers
The barriers to leaving or (re)joining are far more matters of practicality than pure legislation.
Note I've said anything myself about our rejoining during today's discussion. I'm just noting merely that the prospect being raised seems to prompt a rash of irrationally definitive arguments in response.
The significance that you attach to it depends strongly on your prior assumptions about what you think the voting intention of GB News viewers should be
Which may be never.
Having said that, clearly immigration is rising up the political agenda across Europe and a near-future EU may be amenable to qualifying freedom of movement somehow.
As I pointed out before one of the biggest culprits in the Brexit story was Blair / Brown not fixing that issue back in 2002/5...
https://x.com/mattsingh_/status/1805227899617710511?s=46
LAB 450
CON 110
LD 50
SNP 16
REF 1
GRN 1
Time will tell if this is one of those which has Corbyn on 0.6% or something stupid in his seat which calls the rest of the model into question
But mostly the MRP approach uses the demographics of each seat, not the electoral history.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-supporters-canvassing-lib-dems-push-tactical-voting
However, PoliticsHome soon discovered that many of those milling around the beach were campaigning for the party in the area despite not describing themselves as Lib Dems.
“I would describe myself as left-wing Labour,” local resident Christine told PoliticsHome. Christine, like most of the people gathered here, has been canvassing for the Lib Dems over the last few weeks.
As a traditional Labour supporter on the left of the party, does she think the Lib Dems are actually now to the political left of Labour? “I think they are to be honest,” she replied, adding that she also perceived Ed Davey as “much more approachable” than Starmer in the election debates.
This is why I’m still pretty bullish on the Lib Dems beating the Tories. I still think it’s value. The tactical vote this year is gonna far eclipse anything we’ve seen before - all the conditions are there for it.
(For yhe avoidance of doubt I am not CorrectBatteryHorse either)
Changes made by Cleverly/Sunak are expected to cut inbound immigration numbers significantly, even if Cooper/Starmer do nothing.
Starmer has pledged to reduce immigration but refused to concede a target.
In an era of shrinking populations there is going to be a global race for youthful talent. How to balance that with the negative effects of unchecked mass migration, and the need to repair trading relations with Europe?
That’s the debate one wants to hear…
It’s definitely “one to watch”.
Great poll for Labour, 450 would be even higher than the number of MPs Blair won. OK for the LDs who are back to Ashdown and early Kennedy levels.
Poor poll for Reform, only 1 seat, Clacton and not great for SNP either as they lose over half their seats
The Brexit referendum result has one fruitful outcome: No-one can believe that either the UK government nor the EU can 'fix' a referendum result with the UK, even if it can happen with so many other countries. So there is a chance of the process being worthy of trust.
(Outcome: EFTA/EEA membership, as should have happened by about 2018.)
My gut says Reform UK and the Greens will do better than 1 apiece. (My gut is not reliable and can't even cope with a bit of gluten, so DYOR.)
The current trend of Reform % going up should mean they get more than 1 too
They have oil too and weapons of mass destruction that could hit us within 45 minute too, we should invade.
But golly gosh, it would be a Terrible Night for the Tories. Probably hasn't really sunk in how terrible.
Redfield poll of 10,000 people out at 5pm, looks like fieldwork will account for Farage Putin comments (but they might not have cut through entirely at time of asking?)
Redfield poll 4 days ago:
LAB 42 REF 19 CON 18 LIB 11 GRN 5
British people retiring to the south of France or the Costa Del Sol are not escaping poverty and violence.
(we do however need to reduce the rate of asylum granted back to what they were under Labour).
What are you? Some kind of pirate?
NEW: Former Secretary General of NATO George Robertson - who Farage has pointed to as supporting his view - tells
@TomSwarbrick1
Nigel Farage is talking "total nonsense".
Says Farage + far right "cuddling up to Kremlin" - accuses him of "appeasement"
https://x.com/robbiehawkins__/status/1805229265727750566
@RedfieldWilton
🇬🇧 GENERAL ELECTION MEGA POLL!
Over the weekend, we asked 10,000 respondents across Britain how they will vote on 4 July. 🗳️
Where do things stand with just 10 days to go until polling day?
Follow us
@redfieldwilton
to see the results at 5pm... ⏰"
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1805228129272963190
I'm not averse to a bit of trespass myself depending on the circumstances but I always do so responsibly.
A number of RoWs round here are impassible to sane people (very high vegetation, rutted and swampy) but also have very rare plants on them which would not benefit from them being cleared and surfaced.
We were asked to collect some seeds for Kew from one.
Poor maintainance of signage and stiles / gates is endemic, though, and that could be fixed with a few quid.
Labour is going to be in power for about a Scottish Generation. About 13-18 years. Then the Tories will return.
Whether it be 5, 50, 100, 150 or 200 seats probably won't affect that calculation much.
I hate going too much off precedent, but whatever precedent you look at its about the same
1997 style defeat? 13 years to regain Downing Street.
Reverse-1931 style defeat? 14 years to regain Downing Street.
Canada 1993? 13 years before Stephen Harper's Conservatives won the election.
Indeed Reform's successor party the Canadian Alliance effectively took over the Canadian Tories in 2003 to create the new Conservative Party of Canada which formed a government under Harper
And also, a concrete memorable policy that wasn’t immigration related, but that won over more moderate voters instead. The £20k personal allowance could have been that but they needed something stronger.
I am a globalist.
Everyone's happy/relieved? Except for the SNP?
No. It was a warehouse for a grocery chain, from which food and beverages were distributed.
A few nights previously Ukrainian missiles hit a warehouse and training complex in Russia. It's now reported that they destroyed an estimated 110 drones of various explosive and reconnaissance types, as well as causing other damage.
The Russian targeting remains bafflingly erratic and ineffective.
Life is full of decisions may book a later screening
Electoral Calculus Yougov NS IPSOS
LAB 50.90% 48.30% 52.54% 54.27%
CON 16.19% 16.14% 16.04% 19.13%
RFM 12.53% 10.11% 8.94% 7.46%
LIB 12.11% 12.65% 13.70% 9.34%
GRN 6.49% 9.82% 5.44% 7.57%
OTH 1.78% 2.97% 3.34% 2.24%
I just got a fake phishing email with a Keir Starmer (not) joke at the end of it from CCHQ. Looks like it was written by a 12-year old, and, even if I agree with it's central premise that he's being deceitful on tax, it's still a cringeworthy begging letter.
Please. Make it stop.
I used to have to go land side via the staff lane to make a connection because the airside transfer from the terminal I landed at to the terminal I needed to be at took 50 minutes and I had a 60 minute connection...
If a large meteorite struck the UK and I was in need of a new country to live in, Denmark would be a better choice for me than Norway, because I have family in Denmark.
If you were designing a global asylum system from scratch, would you completely omit the wishes of the refugee, or would you include it? If the former, do you really think it's preferable for me to end up in Norway while another person who has family in Norway ends up in Denmark?
I'm sure we'll have more than 1 seat - but where we'll gain and how many I'm still not clear on...
Yes, it won’t be easy to overturn the Tories and form the opposition - but it’s certainly in play now - and doing so could absolutely transform the future of the Lib Dems. Whereas 50 seats doesn’t really get you anywhere that 30-40 wouldn’t.
Lab 41
Con 23
Other shares not out yet
I'd take as illustrations of this some of the asylum seekers my parents spend time with at the reception centre near their village. One family: Iranian, 2 parents and a young daughter. They left because the husband was imprisoned for a couple of years for blasphemy-related crimes and beaten up a few times by regime thugs, but they are also intensely ambitious for their daughter who by all accounts is a bit of a child prodigy. She will go far, and will have opportunities here that she would never have had in Iran.
They came across in a small boat as that was the only viable option, though nowhere near the cheapest. They first had to get out of Iran without the authorities noticing. Why come to the UK? Because they had relatives here. Could they have fled to Turkey or Azerbaijan or Armenia and just stayed there? Probably, but the new life would be a very different one, quite possibly under canvas.
JULIAN REDFIELD: We're anticipating an enormous mega poll this afternoon, Mr Horne.
SANDY WILTON: His name's Vladimir, always pops round when he's over from Gdańsk.
It suffers from a general French propensity to “design for design’s sake” in defiance of actual utility. This, despite a great tradition in engineering.
Two seats might be more likely than zero, but I wouldn't rule zero out.
In my imagination it is the rocky, sylvan “Gateway to the Peaks”. A kind of Yorkshire Grenoble, with the iconic Park Hill flats, the storied Peace Garden, and the world-famous Documentary Festival. Small children ferry bottles of Henderson’s Relish from chip shop to chip shop.
In reality it’s probably a shit-hole.
If someone is forced to seek asylum then yes any random, albeit safe, country provides that.
If someone desires to migrate to the UK specifically that then desire should be processed the same as every other potential migrant who specifically desires to migrate here, for whatever reason.