politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in da
Comments
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You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
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Mr. Me, that sounds like a job for a low trajectory strike from the space cannon.0
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England:
Tory 32%
Labour 32%
UKIP 18%
Liberal 7%
Green 7%
Other 2%0 -
1) Ultimately if she was so poor, she would have gone, just like her predecessorsSocrates said:
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.0 -
I didn't think Mr Blair was much cop in office but he had huge approval numbers, May's numbers as Home Secretary are pretty damn strong considering how the job is normally a complete graveyard for political ambition.Socrates said:
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
THAT is the noteworthy point from a political betting perspective.0 -
You might as well simply send them straight to JackW's pie factory and be done with it - making sure that the resulting pies are packed in boxes marked clearly "For Export", of course.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Me, that sounds like a job for a low trajectory strike from the space cannon.
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41% men, and 38% of women would be 'happy' to see UKIP in coalition, which suggests UKIP's apparent lack of support with women voters in VI polls is fixable.logical_song said:A majority of Tories (58%) said they would be unhappy to see UKIP in government, including 39% saying they would be very unhappy.
Indeed more Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Greens (42%) or the Lib Dems (52%) in a coalition than Nigel Farage’s party. Overall 36% said they would be very unhappy to see UKIP in government – the highest score on that measure for any party other than Sinn Fein (48%).
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ashcroft-national-poll-con-30-lab-32-lib-dem-7-ukip-16-green-6/
table 9, p.15
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/ANP-141201-Full-data-tables.pdf0 -
The first few posts on the original thread on this poll were various PBers pointing out that it wasn't credible that the Tory vote was up by 2 points at the same time as UKIP being on 28%.0
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You really should stop posting on a political website if you think Theresa May is part of Cameron's trusted inner circle.Luckyguy1983 said:
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,0 -
Quite a few of the Tories on here loathe both the SNP and UKIP.......OblitusSumMe said:
Quite the contrast to the sentiment often expressed on here.LordAshcroft said:Indeed more Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Greens (42%) or the Lib Dems (52%) in a coalition than Nigel Farage’s party (39%). Link
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Mr. Eagles, shade harsh, don't you think?0
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1. No, that doesn't follow. If someone stays in office despite clearly overseeing a complete shambles of a department that isn't evidence that they're good. It's evidence that their boss is f###ing clueless too.TheScreamingEagles said:
1) Ultimately if she was so poor, she would have gone, just like her predecessorsSocrates said:
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.
2. After decades of a crappy education system overseen by both Labour and the Tories, most of the public have very little understanding of British history and British liberties. That's another damning indictment of both parties.0 -
That might be true, and Lord Sunil, proprietor (and headline-finder pursuivant) of the Sunil on Sunday, has agonised about this ever since mid-August, but at least it provides an alternative metric of "averaging" out the week's polls. Like Lord A says, this is a snapshot, not a prediction for GE 2015!!Pulpstar said:
Is there not a danger of your methodology being a tad bias toward Yougov ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
It would have contributed, but of the 10,588 sample, Lord A's poll provided only 568!RobD said:
The 27% from Lord A last week probably explains the drop in the Con for your latest appendage.Sunil_Prasannan said:
OUTLIERTheScreamingEagles said:Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll
Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)
568/10,588 = 5.4%!!!
One thing we do check is whether the headline published percentages match each poll's data tables. Whilst most of the time they do in fact, there have been several occurrences where this hasn't happened.0 -
My apologies. Hadn't appreciated it was a sample weighted average!Sunil_Prasannan said:
It would have contributed, but of the 10,588 sample, Lord A's poll provided only 568!RobD said:
The 27% from Lord A last week probably explains the drop in the Con for your latest appendage.Sunil_Prasannan said:
OUTLIERTheScreamingEagles said:Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll
Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)
568/10,588 = 5.4%!!!
excluding Ashcroft, Tories go from 31.4 to 31.6%...0 -
People like Lord Ashcroft ought to pay more attention to the nerds and anoraks frequenting sites like PB, UKPR and VoteUK discussion forum. They noticed a mistake immediately.0
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Unfortunately they're the wrong figures. You appear to have used the GB figures in error.MikeSmithson said:I've updated the header to include the England only figures from Ashcroft.
Is this the fashionable way to show thanks to His Lordship for his opinion polls, for which we are all so very much greatful? (Do words count as much as numbers in this regard do you think?)0 -
Next from the TSE News Network, Robert Mugabe best president in the word... appalling record in office, but he's stayed in his post for ages!0
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Sometimes such idiocy deserves harshness.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, shade harsh, don't you think?
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A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.0 -
Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business0 -
You really have lost it today haven't you.Socrates said:Next from the TSE News Network, Robert Mugabe best president in the word... appalling record in office, but he's stayed in his post for ages!
The fact despite your rantings, the public don't agree with you, means they aren't properly educated, but when the polls agree with your views, then you never make that criticism.
(I could also point out your whining, when I said, Kippers were thick and uneducated)
Take a chill pill and go see the film Paddington, best British film ever.
It might make you calmer.0 -
Mr. Eagles, lack of knowledge is where we all begin. The tide only recedes when we start to learn. If it weren't for a chance comment by another person, in another place, I perhaps would not have read any classical history at all.
And then I might have come here, and considered your deluded and indefensible misunderstandings of history to be somehow learned and correct.0 -
This poll already has the LDs reduced to a third of their 2010 support. You'd think these would be die-hard LDs.Pulpstar said:2. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015. When the general election comes, will
you definitely vote [for the party you named] or might you end up voting differently?
Will definitely vote that way
LD Voters 28%
I make that a 2% Lib Dem core vote.0 -
Mr. M, are you suggesting Osborne's so awful he's comparable to Labour's economic record?
A damning indictment indeed.0 -
Hmm, I do get a thrill from correcting other people, from thinking Hannibal was any good or Theresa May being responsible for prison (escapes)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, lack of knowledge is where we all begin. The tide only recedes when we start to learn. If it weren't for a chance comment by another person, in another place, I perhaps would not have read any classical history at all.
And then I might have come here, and considered your deluded and indefensible misunderstandings of history to be somehow learned and correct.0 -
There is something about the Queen of The Night about Theresa.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2ODfuMMyss
Liked her taste in music - other than Abba.0 -
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
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The public are bright enough to realise that Theresa May is doing a bad job. The net disapproval says it all.TheScreamingEagles said:
You really have lost it today haven't you.Socrates said:Next from the TSE News Network, Robert Mugabe best president in the word... appalling record in office, but he's stayed in his post for ages!
The fact despite your rantings, the public don't agree with you, means they aren't properly educated, but when the polls agree with your views, then you never make that criticism.
(I could also point out your whining, when I said, Kippers were thick and uneducated)
Take a chill pill and go see the film Paddington, best British film ever.
It might make you calmer.
Perhaps you could point out an area of her supervision that has done well without cock-ups? The fact the only thing you can point to is tenure says it all!0 -
The question is can Cameron convince enough grumpy old buggers they will get Ed Miliband if they vote UKIP and do a Tonybee trademarked "peg their nose" and vote Tory in the end.
If he can't, Miliband could still just get over the line into power despite incredibly low % voting for him, although I think no overall majority is the most likely outcome.0 -
Now I'm confused. Is there an Osborne-induced boom, or isn't there? A lot of your previous posts seemed to indicate the latter...BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business0 -
Mr. Eagles, many men get a thrill from wrongs. For some, it's BDSM, for you, it's a horrendous and baffling inability to comprehend the most basic facts of classical history.
It is hard to say which is more depraved.0 -
Not expressing a view on Theresa May's merits or otherwise, but you seem to be suggesting that Blair/Brown sacked Home Secretaries because they thought they were inept, rather than because it was the only way to satisfy a media with the taste of ministerial blood.Socrates said:
1. No, that doesn't follow. If someone stays in office despite clearly overseeing a complete shambles of a department that isn't evidence that they're good. It's evidence that their boss is f###ing clueless too.TheScreamingEagles said:
1) Ultimately if she was so poor, she would have gone, just like her predecessorsSocrates said:
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?0 -
Oh my, Theresa May likes Dancing Queen.
Now her tenure as Home Secretary is the second best evidence she'll make a great Prime Minister
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2845596/Don-t-mimic-men-says-Theresa-picking-Walk-Like-Man-one-Desert-Island-Discs.html0 -
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Given that you think the tories will win a majority, I don;t imagine you trust any poll from any pollster right now.0 -
Following on from what Peter Kellner has said and now OGH, can we expect a lot of focus in the election on England specific polling or at least sub samples? A significant focus on England in the media debate would be quite significant and help to reinforce the differences with Scotland.0
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I know, that is the astonishing thing - the Lib Dem core is truly tiny yet their potential "in your seat" vote is huge in some seats.anotherDave said:
This poll already has the LDs reduced to a third of their 2010 support. You'd think these would be die-hard LDs.Pulpstar said:2. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015. When the general election comes, will
you definitely vote [for the party you named] or might you end up voting differently?
Will definitely vote that way
LD Voters 28%
I make that a 2% Lib Dem core vote.0 -
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.0 -
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?0 -
There's nothing wrong with handing your money to a woman who will abuse you and sexually frustrate you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, many men get a thrill from wrongs. For some, it's BDSM, for you, it's a horrendous and baffling inability to comprehend the most basic facts of classical history.
It is hard to say which is more depraved.
It's called marriage.0 -
Does @Audreyanne seriously think that now ?taffys said:It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Given that you think the tories will win a majority, I don;t imagine you trust any poll from any pollster right now.0 -
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html0 -
So the Lib Dem line will be that they are on target to keep 3 in 5 of their English seats with another 7%......OblitusSumMe said:England:
Tory 32%
Labour 32%
UKIP 18%
Liberal 7%
Green 7%
Other 2%
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0
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The public are bright enough to realise that Theresa May is doing a bad job. The net disapproval says it all.
May is completely hog tied by the UK's treaty commitments, almost completely undertaken by previous governments.
Her mistake is to try to maintain the illusion that she is in charge.
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Indeed, Mr. Taffys. The sooner we leave the EU, which is slowly drowning in the quagmire of the single currency, the better.0
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Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign SecretaryOblitusSumMe said:
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
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Oh. I, er, see. O_oTheScreamingEagles said:
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html0 -
Ed Miliband back into 1-50 with Hills for Doncaster North.0
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Sounds like she's as out of her depth in musical taste as she is in running government departments.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh my, Theresa May likes Dancing Queen.
Now her tenure as Home Secretary is the second best evidence she'll make a great Prime Minister
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2845596/Don-t-mimic-men-says-Theresa-picking-Walk-Like-Man-one-Desert-Island-Discs.html
0 -
Kippers confirm their joke status..
http://order-order.com/2014/12/01/nigel-farages-godless-christmas-card/
0 -
Ok, another bit of my childhood became ruined
ONE of Paddington Bear's original animators revealed that the character has starred in a porn film.
Barry Leith made the secret sex tape in between shooting scenes in the 1970s - and Paddington was the lead role.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/weird-news/animator-reveals-paddington-bear-lead-47163510 -
Does @Audreyanne seriously think that now ?
Progressive tories have to be delusional. IF Dave loses power, the revenge from the massive majority to the right of him will be something to behold.0 -
Some things I could have quite happily died without knowing.Anorak said:
Oh. I, er, see. O_oTheScreamingEagles said:
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html
This is a good example.0 -
Don't you ever get tired of being wrong?Socrates said:
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign SecretaryOblitusSumMe said:
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
Charles Clarke says he was "angry and frustrated" after being sacked as home secretary, adding that he felt Tony Blair had taken "a wrong decision".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/5119074.stm0 -
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.0 -
And it's a left-hand drive vehicle.TGOHF said:Kippers confirm their joke status..
http://order-order.com/2014/12/01/nigel-farages-godless-christmas-card/
Is Nigel Farage really Johnny Foreigner? I think we should be told....
0 -
Could be mistaken for Nicola Sturgeon... Have they been seen in same room?TheScreamingEagles said:
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html
0 -
I thought Tories are supposed to believe in marriageTheScreamingEagles said:
There's nothing wrong with handing your money to a woman who will abuse you and sexually frustrate you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, many men get a thrill from wrongs. For some, it's BDSM, for you, it's a horrendous and baffling inability to comprehend the most basic facts of classical history.
It is hard to say which is more depraved.
It's called marriage. 0 -
How about the reason why Yvette Cooper will never be Labour Leader/PM?Pulpstar said:
Some things I could have quite happily died without knowing.Anorak said:
Oh. I, er, see. O_oTheScreamingEagles said:
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html
This is a good example.0 -
bigjohnowls wrong type of voters?bigjohnowls said:
No need to spin There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
I think Ed is crap will be PM You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
0 -
Sorry Anorak, I thought this was universally known.Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
At least on pb.com!
0 -
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for youbigjohnowls said:
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/0 -
His article, if true shoots your heavily tipped "Tory Votes, Labour Seats" out the water btw.TheScreamingEagles said:
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for youbigjohnowls said:
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/0 -
I think the numbers for England only are Conservative 32%, Labour 32%, UKIP 18%, Others 18%.0 -
Uniform swing...oh God, we're back to Jimmy Krankie....!TheScreamingEagles said:
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for youbigjohnowls said:
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/
0 -
Theresa May is content to hand even more power over to the EU, so she'd hardly be able to complain about Brussels.taffys said:The public are bright enough to realise that Theresa May is doing a bad job. The net disapproval says it all.
May is completely hog tied by the UK's treaty commitments, almost completely undertaken by previous governments.
Her mistake is to try to maintain the illusion that she is in charge.0 -
I think now that England and Wales ought to be polled separately from Scotland.FrankBooth said:Following on from what Peter Kellner has said and now OGH, can we expect a lot of focus in the election on England specific polling or at least sub samples? A significant focus on England in the media debate would be quite significant and help to reinforce the differences with Scotland.
0 -
I'll be fine. Do have some covering bets.Pulpstar said:
His article, if true shoots your heavily tipped "Tory Votes, Labour Seats" out the water btw.TheScreamingEagles said:
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for youbigjohnowls said:
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/0 -
I think Lord A is overstating Con 1st time incumbency though. I really don't think it'll help all that much.0
-
Must leave, but I'm afraid my betting QI claxon has just sounded mahoosively in this thread.0
-
On topic
Oops – but reassuring to us mere mortals to be reminded of his good Lordship fallibility. ; )
0 -
Ignorance, it seems, is bliss.MarqueeMark said:
Sorry Anorak, I thought this was universally known.Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
At least on pb.com!0 -
0
-
The aria from Die Zaberflotte is about vengeance, and planning assassination of a leader. Must be a hidden message in that choice. It is great if sung well, but not all singers reach those top notes.Socrates said:
Sounds like she's as out of her depth in musical taste as she is in running government departments.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh my, Theresa May likes Dancing Queen.
Now her tenure as Home Secretary is the second best evidence she'll make a great Prime Minister
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2845596/Don-t-mimic-men-says-Theresa-picking-Walk-Like-Man-one-Desert-Island-Discs.html
0 -
If Kellner is right it completely destroys the basic premise underpinning everything on here for the last 5 years - ie that if votes are close, Lab will be miles ahead on seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for youbigjohnowls said:
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/
Of course Kellner may prove to be wrong - but who knows. I think it would be very foolish to be confident either way - ie confident that he is right or confident that he is wrong.0 -
Farage is the man who thought it a neat idea to help people to profiteer from selling the Tower poppies. So much so he complained when ebay banned selling them.MarqueeMark said:
And it's a left-hand drive vehicle.TGOHF said:Kippers confirm their joke status..
http://order-order.com/2014/12/01/nigel-farages-godless-christmas-card/
Is Nigel Farage really Johnny Foreigner? I think we should be told....
Is this really his christmas card? It must be a fake. Frankly I cannot believe it (which is odd since Victor Meldrwe is his target voter).0 -
This is for all of the non teetotal, pb contributors of the Muslin faith.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJEmMm-Oup8
Vivat Bacchus...0 -
Flightpath said:
Farage is the man who thought it a neat idea to help people to profiteer from selling the Tower poppies. So much so he complained when ebay banned selling them.MarqueeMark said:
And it's a left-hand drive vehicle.TGOHF said:Kippers confirm their joke status..
http://order-order.com/2014/12/01/nigel-farages-godless-christmas-card/
Is Nigel Farage really Johnny Foreigner? I think we should be told....
Is this really his christmas card? It must be a fake. Frankly I cannot believe it (which is odd since Victor Meldrwe is his target voter).
Steady. You seem to be in Guidoland.
0 -
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.Socrates said:
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign SecretaryOblitusSumMe said:
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.0 -
Depends which side of the bet they go for!isam said:People who bet before polls come out are the ones to follow
0 -
Home Secretary is also a very different job now. Back in the day the Home Secretary might get hounded on TV about the fallout from the latest prison escape. That isnt something that most people would question the Home Secretary about these days.OblitusSumMe said:
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.Socrates said:
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign SecretaryOblitusSumMe said:
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
0 -
Prison escapes seem a bit dated - only seem to happen in transit these days - when was the last time someone dug a proper Shawshank tunnel ?Neil said:
Home Secretary is also a very different job now. Back in the day the Home Secretary might get hounded on TV about the fallout from the latest prison escape. That isnt something that most people would question the Home Secretary about these days.OblitusSumMe said:
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.Socrates said:
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign SecretaryOblitusSumMe said:
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.0 -
On the face of it, it does look helpful. Both Stockton South and Watford would fall on a swing of 4.9%, but Ashcroft has the Tory incumbent narrowly ahead,Pulpstar said:I think Lord A is overstating Con 1st time incumbency though. I really don't think it'll help all that much.
0 -
I'm AGOG to hear your scintillating evidence to the contrary.TheScreamingEagles said:
You really should stop posting on a political website if you think Theresa May is part of Cameron's trusted inner circle.Luckyguy1983 said:
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
0 -
Out or in?TGOHF said:
Prison escapes seem a bit dated - only seem to happen in transit these days - when was the last time someone dug a proper Shawshank tunnel ?Neil said:
Home Secretary is also a very different job now. Back in the day the Home Secretary might get hounded on TV about the fallout from the latest prison escape. That isnt something that most people would question the Home Secretary about these days.OblitusSumMe said:
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.Socrates said:
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign SecretaryOblitusSumMe said:
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.0 -
There is a significant element of Kellnerism in my ARSE projections, of which ....MikeL said:
If Kellner is right it completely destroys the basic premise underpinning everything on here for the last 5 years - ie that if votes are close, Lab will be miles ahead on seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for youbigjohnowls said:
No need to spinTCPoliticalBetting said:
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......BenM said:Unsecured consumer borrowing driving the Osborne er 'boom'.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/
Of course Kellner may prove to be wrong - but who knows. I think it would be very foolish to be confident either way - ie confident that he is right or confident that he is wrong.
The latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Projections Countdown :
15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds
0 -
It was reported on Sunday that Gordon Brown was given 3 envelopes by his Tory predecessor when he became chancellor in 1997.One message said 'blame it all on the last government'. The second said 'blame it all on outside events'. The third said 'prepare a note for the incoming government'. Liam Byrne did the latter but Osborne has been following Tory advice ever since and the deficit is still rising.My teaching experience gives George 4 out of 10, needs to do better!0
-
Look forward to it!JackW said:
There is a significant element of Kellnerism in my ARSE projections, of which ....
The latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Projections Countdown :
15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds
Trying to look at the issue as objectively as possible, it would be interesting to ask Kellner what he thinks of the Ashcroft marginal polls. Because these, on average, show swings in line with national polls.
What would Kellner's answer be? Because I think he would have one - he is obviously aware of the Ashcroft polls.0 -
Miss 64, a rather old joke with a new spin.
The version I heard some years ago was:
A minister was given three envelopes by his predecessor upon being appointed, and was told to open them whenever something terrible happened.
The first read: Blame your predecessor.
The second: Blame the Civil Service.
The third instructed: write our three envelopes for your successor.
And what was Brown blaming the Conservatives for? He had a golden economic inheritance.0 -
You're getting your parties mixed up. Think Ms Lamont.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Could be mistaken for Nicola Sturgeon... Have they been seen in same room?TheScreamingEagles said:
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'Anorak said:
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?MarqueeMark said:
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....audreyanne said:A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html
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I get the feeling people on here only ever admit to the ones on the correct side...Richard_Nabavi said:
Depends which side of the bet they go for!isam said:People who bet before polls come out are the ones to follow
or make excuses later0 -
"Co-op Group could sever financial ties to political party"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/co-op-group-political-party-financial-links
What a shame0 -
They published the results of the YG finding - fig 4 is instructive..Richard_Nabavi said:"Co-op Group could sever financial ties to political party"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/co-op-group-political-party-financial-links
What a shame
http://www.haveyoursay.coop/summary/hys-summary.pdf
timing is rotten and cynical mind you
"Millions of members of the Co-operative Group will vote next year on whether to withdraw £1m in annual funding from the Co-operative party, as a public survey cast doubt over the financial link.
The vote will formally test a relationship that has been in place for almost a century and is likely to take place just after the general election on 7 May."0 -
What is said to have happened is that he was informed of the golden economic situation and replied, 'what do you want me to do, send them a fxxxing thank you note?' No idea if it's true, but it is typically graceless. Imagine the amazing state we could be in if that situation hadn't been so destructively squandered.Morris_Dancer said:Miss 64, a rather old joke with a new spin.
The version I heard some years ago was:
A minister was given three envelopes by his predecessor upon being appointed, and was told to open them whenever something terrible happened.
The first read: Blame your predecessor.
The second: Blame the Civil Service.
The third instructed: write our three envelopes for your successor.
And what was Brown blaming the Conservatives for? He had a golden economic inheritance.0 -
Have you joined up to help sever that link?Richard_Nabavi said:"Co-op Group could sever financial ties to political party"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/co-op-group-political-party-financial-links
What a shame
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Proving a positive is always a lot easier than proving a negative - and since the claim is yours, why not demonstrate it?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm AGOG to hear your scintillating evidence to the contrary.TheScreamingEagles said:
You really should stop posting on a political website if you think Theresa May is part of Cameron's trusted inner circle.Luckyguy1983 said:
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.TheScreamingEagles said:
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessorsSocrates said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.DavidL said:
The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.Pulpstar said:To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.
IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.
Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
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Mr. 1983, indeed, but that account seems very plausible, unlike the edited version of an old joke from Miss 64.0
