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Your chart du jour – politicalbetting.com
Your chart du jour – politicalbetting.com
Mark Pack has analysed how many timesthe Tories have polled less than 20% per calenda yearr.
1
Your chart du jour – politicalbetting.com
Mark Pack has analysed how many timesthe Tories have polled less than 20% per calenda yearr.
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https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories
..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Libdems are favs to win in 57 seats.
SNP are favs to win in 18 seats.
Bookies' current o/u line for the Nats is 21.5. value on the underside? Not sure.
Locking people out would prompt a revolt though, so DougSeal may be right that's false.
They will lose seats with larger majorities, certainly in my area someone with a 20k majority is saying it will be close of their leaflets, and I don't think that's a lie.
"According to a recent MRP poll produced by YouGov, Labour are on course to win 425 seats out of a total of 650. Yet in 134 of them, Labour’s vote share is lower than the combined total for the Conservatives and Reform. If the Tories manage to squeeze the Reform vote – something they have struggled to do so far – YouGov suggests they could double the number of seats they win."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/23/reform-voters-will-get-the-opposite-of-what-they-want/
It is inconsistent with what we are seeing on Betfair, where the odds on Tories <100 are 8/13, and of course wildly at variance with a 20% standing in the polls. The next few should be definitive. Has the betting scandal cut through? Have the Tories finally hit bedrock? Are their former supporters begining to return to the fold?
I don't know. My money's already down, thankfully at attractive odds on the whole.
Not sure whether I'd be a buyer or seller at current levels. No bet is no problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybFgR4mKNhg&t=1948s
Aitken also mentions that Home was deeply religious, although he kept it quiet, and we've seen how this played out with Tim Farron and Kate Forbes. But of course, Tony Blair was also a religious man, while Gordon Brown, Theresa May and (de facto) Mrs Thatcher were son and daughters of the manse.
It reminds me of Varoufakis speaking about Le Pen and Macron recently - they are symbiotic; without the threat of Le Pen, Macron would almost certainly not be president, and without Macron signing up to the same racist rhetoric whilst continuing neoliberal policies, Le Pen would have no legitimacy and dissatisfaction to use as a foundation for her popularity. This relationship keeps the far right out of power, whilst seeing the so called centrists take many of their worst policies anyway...
The haw haw, what has your pin picked today stuff got a bit tedious.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1964_United_Kingdom_general_election
Week 1 - 13%
Week 2 - 6%
Week 3 - 16%
Week 4 - 33%
Week 5 - 56% (so far)
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Trends point to an historic collapse of the Tory vote in rural, semi-rural and suburban seats, the like of which England has maybe never seen before.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-lost-heart-soul-general-election-pm-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-truss/
When the dust settles, the Conservative Party is going to have to have a good long think about what it is for. Not just in terms of policy, but also in terms of who is paying who to do what with what end in mind.
What is the point of giving a tip if you don't give the odds? The most likely winner of each race is normally the favorite, so if you want to tip lots of winners just tip the fav. On the other hand if you want to make money you have to tip at decent odds which means you have to state what those odds are.
Just saying what you think will win is pointless. You may as well say what side a coin will fall if you toss it in the air.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
I think at this point we need to take seriously the fact the polls and MRPs could be right
If anyone on senior BBC reads this, note that I never watch BBC telly, but I need a licence so that the under gardener and footman can watch the snooker, and I happily pay the licence fee for R4 alone. Goodness knows what your enemies think.
The Conservative Party Is FINISHED For Good. Here’s Why. | Aaron meets Peter Oborne
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TADeOmCVo_s
In 2019 I didn’t believe the polls were right, I thought it would be a Hung Parliament but the mood music was clear in hindsight and that feels similar now.
So whilst I don’t think it will be below 100 seats, I think around 100 is very plausible.
SKS’s ratings also keep going up. So whilst it may be right to say he’s still not got many people enthusiastically voting for him, it does imply that whatever he is doing, people like. And so this again doesn’t imply a narrowing of the polls, actually it implies a widening.
Today I am going to make the customary pilgrimage to the birthplace of the great Jean Marie le Pen. I might also take in the Carnac alignments which are right next door, if I have time
Fpt the conversation about crashing insect numbers. I’ve noticed the same all over the world. For me the biggest change is the disappearing mosquitoes. Last night I was savaged by them - didn’t expect them in Brittany - but that is striking as it has become so rare. In recent years I’ve been to places in America, the Med, SE Asia where mosquitoes were once a horrible pain and been
unmolested
That’s nice. But it’s also worrying
Theyve done it all to themselves
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Also, I don't really agree about winning seats "next time". It's much more valuable to cling on in a handful more seats than to lose a doomed seat by 15,347 rather than 15,002. Campaigning to get a marginally better bar chart (particularly for the Tories) is a bit of a waste of time.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/steve-baker-northern-ireland-brexit-stress-b2290811.html
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/24/tory-minister-accused-of-cronyism-after-associates-firm-hired-as-adviser
'A health minister has been accused of cronyism after a close associate became a £1,500-a-day adviser on the “40 new hospitals” programme, despite officials raising a series of detailed objections including perceived conflicts of interest.
Nick Markham helped to ensure that the Department of Health and Social Care handed a £137,460 contract to iDevelop, a management consultancy run by Nigel Crainey. In doing so, he overrode concerns from civil servants who had warned that the contract was not needed and did not represent value for money and also that the two men’s relationship meant that it posed “reputational risk” for the department and the NHS.
Asked by NHS England what the basis was for engaging iDevelop to be an “expert adviser” to Lord Markham, a senior official in the DHSC’s new hospitals team replied: “Because we have been told to.”'
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
They need to be the party of small and medium business - entrepreneurs. They need to be the party of homes - building and enabling people to buy.
Be the party of incentives to invest for outsiders - multi- year breaks on taxes for inward investment and job creation.
They need to focus on European and overseas territories defence only, the pacific etc is no longer any of our business and we don’t have the resources to do anything useful. Sell the carriers and build the military in coordination with European allies and our joint needs, roles and specialities.
Make it clear that they aren’t interested in telling people what they can say or think unless it endangers safety so stop police wasting time on feeble and spurious complaints by the offended.
If they focus on the “middle” 70% of the population, then the rest of the population gets lifted on the high tide anyway but the voter base is bigger.
Big business will look after itself in a stable healthy society and the strugglers in life benefit from a stable healthy society as if most people are doing well they are more likely to see those who aren’t helped.
*beginning to get covered in small red lumps*
Oh.
I think we need to treat the MRP and other projections with much more scepticism. They are essentially guesswork. One person's very educated guesswork, perhaps, but guesswork nonetheless. People are investing them, particularly at constituency level, with an accuracy and foresight that they simply do not have.
Nice to see it's going to cost 134 MPs any chance of retaining their seat (and yes I know MPs aren't elected via Supplementary votes but if they were...)
On local travels over the weekend, the following poster counts:
Colne Valley (Lindley and Holme Valley N wards): Lab 9, Con 7, Green 5. On topic, no sign of further active Con posting whilst Lab posters are still going up.
Huddersfield (Crosland, Newsome, Greenhead wards): Lab 16, Grn 14, Reform 4
Spen Valley (Mirfield ward): Lab 14, Reform 1. It's like North Korea for Kim! This is a Tory ward in a nominal Tory defence.
Out of interest, there is no single list of councils where election fly posting (on council lamp posts) is permitted. Reading round, it seems rare in England and Wales (only references I can see are locally for Kirklees and Wakefield), but more common in Scotland (around 1/3 of authorities including O&S, but no longer Glasgow) and seems like the norm in NI.
Not sure how it operates somewhere that straddles areas with different rules, but think Normanton & Hemsworth is now fully within E Wakefield.
Could PB crowdsource a definitive list?
“You’ve been viewing the election from London, I’ve been viewing it from on the ground”
Sir Liam Fox tells me he thinks the betting scandal has been “blown out into something more than it was”
https://x.com/AliFortescue/status/1805009878324518976
But the post election resentments are going to hamper efforts to rebuild, which is why it's of at least some interest.
I expect to see many many voters doing a BigG in the last days before the election and returning home to the Conservatives. The Farage Russia material gives them the excuse to do so, along with the fear of a giant Labour majority. So when the bongs finish at 10pm on the 4th I expect everyone to be rather surprised by the exit poll.
Am I just paranoid after so many elections when the anti-Tory vote flattered to deceive? I hope so, and I hope not to experience yet again that deflated feeling as the announcer says "and the Liberal Democrats...they'll be disappointed with that I think. They were expecting big things in the blue wall but the Conservatives look to have held on better than expected".
The fall is even more noticeable in indochina. Mosquitoes used to be a nightmare in, say, Bangkok and Phnom Penh. Completely gone now
Since the election was called I have seen just two plaid and one conservative one in the whole area
Not one from anyone else which is astonishing
I find it hard to imagine Sunak on the after-dinner speaking circuit