Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
You conflate being right wing with being a defender of this government.You, Leon, HYUFD, MrEDfordshire, MarqueeMark, CasinoRoyale…the right is very well represented on here. We might miss Charles’ patrician take but his overall viewpoints are well represented.
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Pretty sure Lozza hasn’t fallen too far from the tree of the views of Uncle Edward, it’s just that nunky Eddy is enough of a gentleman not to spew his guts out on social media (or doesn’t know how to work his iPhone).
Lozza has endorsed Nige.
All reclaimers please lend your support to the only party and the only man @Nigel_Farage which is offering hope in the coming election.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
This is a red line for me.
Churchill interned people like this during WWII.
For voting the wrong way? We didn't have an election in (the European part of) WWII.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
You conflate being right wing with being a defender of this government.You, Leon, HYUFD, MrEDfordshire, MarqueeMark, CasinoRoyale…the right is very well represented on here. We might miss Charles’ patrician take but his overall viewpoints are well represented.
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.
Remember just before the results of the mayoral elections were announced, cchq were briefing that they may have won? Now given how Khan won by a landslide there's no way their canvassing returns showed anything like that, I they must've known Hall had no chance
Someone started those rumours to make a killing in the betting markets
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
Reform like to portray themselves as "patriots". The question to ask them is "do patriots pay their taxes in Britain?".
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
I'd say pb has always echoed the tone of the country at large, though with Lib Dems consistently rather overrepresented.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
It is a very good film. One thing I enjoy about it is the setting is the early 1960s but in all the crowd scenes it's very clearly the early 1970s.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
That would probably be a good thing for what is left of the Tory Party. Former self-styled "Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker" seems to have had a Damascene conversion to sanity in recent years.
The rump Tory party will need someone who is sane. Especially someone who used to be a headbanger but has seen the light.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
I see. Thanks for that. I hope the Lib Dems find a way.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
This is a red line for me.
Churchill interned people like this during WWII.
Much as Reform do have candidate issues - I guess actually every party of 'no hoper' candidates is lucky to get candidates at all - they'll never find ones with no fruity online comments, I find the statement above a bit icky. We're allowed our views on the affairs of two foreign countries, neither of whom we're at war with. That's free speech.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
He won't. It's not that the opposition parties are going to win the seat, it's that the collapse in the Tory vote will be so large that Labour will win by default. (Of course i have been wrong plenty times before)
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
You conflate being right wing with being a defender of this government.You, Leon, HYUFD, MrEDfordshire, MarqueeMark, CasinoRoyale…the right is very well represented on here. We might miss Charles’ patrician take but his overall viewpoints are well represented.
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
You conflate being right wing with being a defender of this government.You, Leon, HYUFD, MrEDfordshire, MarqueeMark, CasinoRoyale…the right is very well represented on here. We might miss Charles’ patrician take but his overall viewpoints are well represented.
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.
Well we'll see how things look next year. I think SKS will have a short honeymoon as there is little personal enthusiasm for him. He will need the large majority he is forecast to win if he is going to get things done.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
Reform like to portray themselves as "patriots". The question to ask them is "do patriots pay their taxes in Britain?".
Oh there's much more to patriotism than simply paying your taxes. It's all about selling out your ideology to a fascist warmonger and shilling -- maybe for free! -- on his behalf in the most personally degrading way. It's about coming up with an economic plan that would be to the economy as five hundred million tonnes of radioactive lead would be to agriculture. It's about taking the people who are integral to our economy and making them feel deeply unwelcome by openly plotting how to get rid of them. Nigel Farage is a true patriot.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
It's been very obvious for a very long time that Farage is a Putinist. He's not exactly hidden it. Neither has Trump. What's bizarre is how many Tories who want to unite the right with Farage in the UK and who back Trump for the US presidency have chosen to ignore or deny it. I suppose they will mostly carry on doing so.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin.
Wycombe is a lab gain according to 4 mrps, Richmond is one of 42 Con holds they all agree on (NS, YG, Ipsos, EC)
Telegraph MRP is paywalled which has Rishi losing his.
Rishi's hold is ~ 3-4k whereas the Lab gain from Baker according to all the MRPs (Tele is worst for the Tories) looks to be a majority of around 10,000.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
I'd say pb has always echoed the tone of the country at large, though with Lib Dems consistently rather overrepresented.
It is clearly very male, middle aged and above, and more numerate and wealthier than the country. So unlikely to genuinely echo the country at large imo, even if it may do on the Labour/Conservative balance alone.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
150 I would say.
I must admit 150 seems my ball park, esp given NF's appeasement slip regarding Russia, their vote will haemorrhage in 5 directions in most cases (Lab, LD, Ref, Nat/GreeN or dont vote) which should save quite a few in the shires....
150 seats means the polls are wrong. No one will notice because they will have got the winner right.
So the polls aren't converging - well lets look at the three companies with the best recent records
Verian (ex-Kantar) / Survation / Opinium
Con 21/20/20 Lab 39/41/40 LD 13/12/12 Green 7/6/9 Ref 13/15/16
Look pretty converged to me. So on UNS at the best possible Con figures between those three we get -
Lab 417, Con 134, LD 56, Nats 21, G 1, Oths 21 (Is this the best the Cons can hope for?) That is without any tactical voting or differential swings (both of which are happening).
Time to revise down my estimate of 150 Con seats to 100-125
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Yes.
One of the problems with the current Biodiversity Net Gain scheme is that if a farmer takes BNG money to turn an unproductive field into a woodland (or whatever) nobody is quite sure what the inheritance tax implications are and DEFRA / HMRC seem unable to say.
It is no good if you get money to manage land differently but your family then get clobbered with a big tax bill in 30 years because it is no longer "farmed".
As a result many farmers have been reluctant to get involved as IHT is clearly a big issue for them.
I hate to think what will happen if it is due on all land.
One of the problems with the Blair government was that 'business' to them was really just 'big business'. They listened to too many lobbyists and failed to take into account what mattered for small companies, which is what pretty much every normal farm is. As for the self-employed? Bound to be on the make.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Actually Mr b I wish him good luck since if he lifts the place it's to all our benefits. The thing is from what he says and does I'm not that optimistic. Too many U turns and contradictions, his economic policies are just a mess.
On the other hand he has been very lucky to date so if that sticks with him he may yet do good.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Can't be Cameron, won't be Hunt (if Sunak falls, there's no way he survives), which leaves Cleverly. Could do (and probably will do) a lot worse.
Penny?
Not senior enough.
If things go so badly that Sunak is out, not elected enough.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
That would probably be a good thing for what is left of the Tory Party. Former self-styled "Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker" seems to have had a Damascene conversion to sanity in recent years.
The rump Tory party will need someone who is sane. Especially someone who used to be a headbanger but has seen the light.
Steve Baker is an odd fish, he sits slightly uncomfortably with the Tories, and his mostly right wing views are much more Libertarian than say Rees Moggs Cosplay Toryism. He is a genuine independent and that might just save him.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
This is a red line for me.
Churchill interned people like this during WWII.
For voting the wrong way? We didn't have an election in (the European part of) WWII.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
This is a red line for me.
Churchill interned people like this during WWII.
For voting the wrong way? We didn't have an election in (the European part of) WWII.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
I'd say pb has always echoed the tone of the country at large, though with Lib Dems consistently rather overrepresented.
It is clearly very male, middle aged and above, and more numerate and wealthier than the country. So unlikely to genuinely echo the country at large imo, even if it may do on the Labour/Conservative balance alone.
Yes, I would PB is, on average, fairly wealthy centre-right.
I may have mentioned this before but the NRL is a seriously underrated competition. It’s by far the best club rugby tournament, of either code, in the world.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
This is a red line for me.
Churchill interned people like this during WWII.
We aren’t at war.
Not de jure but de facto, Russia has used poison against people living in the UK.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Seems opposite to what Labour stand for, so it seems unlikely they’d pursue it.
Politicians lacking foresight as to the result of policies?
Remember just before the results of the mayoral elections were announced, cchq were briefing that they may have won? Now given how Khan won by a landslide there's no way their canvassing returns showed anything like that, I they must've known Hall had no chance
Someone started those rumours to make a killing in the betting markets
I did think that at the time. Ditto Farage’s “concession” in 2016. Some of the credulousness on here last month was disheartening though.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
It's this weekend that postal votes will be done too, a significant chunk of the previous Tory vote. I also think Tories on 110 and 23% of the vote.
My other half’s has not arrived yet…
In another place a postal vote was reported as arriving in San Francisco on Friday, but unfortunately I don't know which local authority sent that one out. Obviously wasn't Edinburgh.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
That would probably be a good thing for what is left of the Tory Party. Former self-styled "Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker" seems to have had a Damascene conversion to sanity in recent years.
The rump Tory party will need someone who is sane. Especially someone who used to be a headbanger but has seen the light.
Steve Baker is an odd fish, he sits slightly uncomfortably with the Tories, and his mostly right wing views are much more Libertarian than say Rees Moggs Cosplay Toryism. He is a genuine independent and that might just save him.
He’s also a lovely guy and a very hard worker. Despite being very far away from him politically he is one of my favourite MPs that I’ve worked with. Not sure if that counts for much in this current electoral climate though.
I think that whatever number of seats the Tories cobble together (and I'm now fairly convinced it will not be triple figures or barely above), the vast majority will likely be won on tight margins, which means where the parties focus GOTV might be critical in shaping that number. You have to fancy Labour will be aggressive but not foolhardy, the Tories will be defensive but perhaps scale up to try and overactive their base polling by 20 seats. In my neck of the woods Norfolk, take out the Norwichs which will be Labour safely, the remaining 8 seats (incl Waveney Valley), the Tories could conceivably win all or none and all by a few % either way. I'd expect the random fluctuations of life to ensure they hold something, with SW, NW, Mid and North in that order more likely than Waveney, Broadland, Yarmouth and South in that. Gut feeling is 2 of NW, SW and Mid stay blue, the rest go elsewhere, although Waveney might be a win if the green vote doesn't turn out in force. I don't think Reform will do as well in the county as expected
What on earth is the point of diverting resources into Sunak's seat?
Even if he stays in the country, barring an amazing turnaround he's not going to be leader for very long after the election, and is very unlikely to have any front-bench role.
History.
Do you really want to be known be known as the only PM who lost his seat?
Yes, I can see it would be a huge embarrassment for him.
But to divert resources there just because of that, rather than to more winnable (or less losable) seats?
Given that some MRPs show the Tories and the Lib Dems separated by only a handful of seats, shouldn't they be concentrating on remaining the official opposition? Becoming the third party in parliament would have far worse long-term effects on the party than the prime minister losing his seat.
This is the point. Of course Dan Hannan is wrong, that’s axiomatic, but how he is wrong is significant. If the Tories can’t work out why they are where they are there is little hope for them. It will lead to them trying to do the same thing only harder.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin.
Wycombe is a lab gain according to 4 mrps, Richmond is one of 42 Con holds they all agree on (NS, YG, Ipsos, EC)
Telegraph MRP is paywalled which has Rishi losing his.
Rishi's hold is ~ 3-4k whereas the Lab gain from Baker according to all the MRPs (Tele is worst for the Tories) looks to be a majority of around 10,000.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Actually Mr b I wish him good luck since if he lifts the place it's to all our benefits. The thing is from what he says and does I'm not that optimistic. Too many U turns and contradictions, his economic policies are just a mess.
On the other hand he has been very lucky to date so if that sticks with him he may yet do good.
Only time will tell.
Fair. I’ve no great expectations of the next government, either - though they can hardly be worse than this one. Any surprises on the upside will be welcome.
Reeves doesn’t so far appear to be a fool. And the relative vagueness of their manifesto has left them some room for manoeuvre.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Yes.
One of the problems with the current Biodiversity Net Gain scheme is that if a farmer takes BNG money to turn an unproductive field into a woodland (or whatever) nobody is quite sure what the inheritance tax implications are and DEFRA / HMRC seem unable to say.
It is no good if you get money to manage land differently but your family then get clobbered with a big tax bill in 30 years because it is no longer "farmed".
As a result many farmers have been reluctant to get involved as IHT is clearly a big issue for them.
I hate to think what will happen if it is due on all land.
One of the problems with the Blair government was that 'business' to them was really just 'big business'. They listened to too many lobbyists and failed to take into account what mattered for small companies, which is what pretty much every normal farm is. As for the self-employed? Bound to be on the make.
I fear very much we are going to see a repeat.
There’s a chunk of the Left who instinctively hates small business.
It's been very obvious for a very long time that Farage is a Putinist. He's not exactly hidden it. Neither has Trump. What's bizarre is how many Tories who want to unite the right with Farage in the UK and who back Trump for the US presidency have chosen to ignore or deny it. I suppose they will mostly carry on doing so.
For me, the interesting stats will be after the election. Is Reform UK wide or just in England?
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
I'm on at 20s
Hustings in her constituency this afternoon. I’m going. Allegedly all candidates will be answering questions, so maybe we’ll get some idea of how safe she feels.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
Even the sleaze is disappointing. I mean, if you're going to do it, at least go out in a blaze of glory and French prostitutes. This is simultaneously deeply corrupt and deeply lame
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
That would probably be a good thing for what is left of the Tory Party. Former self-styled "Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker" seems to have had a Damascene conversion to sanity in recent years.
The rump Tory party will need someone who is sane. Especially someone who used to be a headbanger but has seen the light.
Steve Baker is an odd fish, he sits slightly uncomfortably with the Tories, and his mostly right wing views are much more Libertarian than say Rees Moggs Cosplay Toryism. He is a genuine independent and that might just save him.
He’s also a lovely guy and a very hard worker. Despite being very far away from him politically he is one of my favourite MPs that I’ve worked with. Not sure if that counts for much in this current electoral climate though.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
Labour in almost all seats is overdone.
Nevertheless I'd want much better odds than that on Baker.
Wycombe is almost the perfect seat for how demographic change is elbowing out Tories.
@implausibleblog Cleverly's car crash interview on Conservatives placing bets on the election
Trevor Philips, "Is it a sign or moral decay that your Conservative party colleagues were more interested in stuffing their pockets with gambling, than on helping hard pressed families in a cost of living crisis"
James Cleverly, "There is an investgation by the gambling commission"
TP, "It's not just one or two people, there's a lot of them"
JC, "That's not my understanding"
TP, "Were any of your cabinet colleagues involved"
JC, "The Gambling commission says we can't discuss this"
TP, "Why doesn't Rishi Sunak call in the alleged offenders, ask them did you place a bet, yes or no, and if the answer is yes, sack them"
JC, "Because that's the gambling commissions role"
TP, "No, he's the Prime Minister, they work for him"
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin.
Wycombe is a lab gain according to 4 mrps, Richmond is one of 42 Con holds they all agree on (NS, YG, Ipsos, EC)
Telegraph MRP is paywalled which has Rishi losing his.
Rishi's hold is ~ 3-4k whereas the Lab gain from Baker according to all the MRPs (Tele is worst for the Tories) looks to be a majority of around 10,000.
Surely, if you believe that Richmond and Northallerton can go against the head of the polls, based on local circumstances (i.e. pissed off Squaddies at Catterick camp), its not too much of a stretch to suggest that Wycombe could go against the head of the polls based on the Kashmiris coming out for Khalil Ahmed instead of Emma Reynolds, who was previously Labour MP in the West Midlands and who has been rather parachuted into the seat.
I am not saying Baker will survive, but I think it is possible, and that is interesting of itself.
So the polls aren't converging - well lets look at the three companies with the best recent records
Verian (ex-Kantar) / Survation / Opinium
Con 21/20/20 Lab 39/41/40 LD 13/12/12 Green 7/6/9 Ref 13/15/16
Look pretty converged to me. So on UNS at the best possible Con figures between those three we get -
Lab 417, Con 134, LD 56, Nats 21, G 1, Oths 21 (Is this the best the Cons can hope for?) That is without any tactical voting or differential swings (both of which are happening).
Time to revise down my estimate of 150 Con seats to 100-125
Worth remembering that all three of those pollsters have changed their methodologies since the last election - Opinium markedly so.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
For almost 25 years we have had the Portillo moment but all things move on -
In a week and a half will we all be asking - 'Were you up for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?'
(Probably not - but they could do a lot worse)
Actually this election will be more like a team event...
"Were you up for Truss?"
"Were you up for Hunt?"
"Were you up for Sunak?"
"Were you up for Braverman?"
etc...
Perhaps PB could produce some sort of scorecard to collect and keep?
"I think I was up for Sunak, but I was too drunk to remember."
Remember, folks, that if you're drinking into the small hours, you won't be safe to drive until much later the next day then you think. Best to plan to avoid driving at all.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Being an outspoken, working class Northern woman really annoys both snobs and those who think the working class support only the likes of 30p Lee.
I must admit, it does grate somewhat when people assume that opposition to Rayner must be down to "snobbery". It's a bit of a Netanyahu defence when Israel is criticised.
I don't have the same issue with Jess Phillips, Lisa Nandy or Bridget Phillipson - even though I dont agree with them. And I admire Rosie Duffield and Sarah Champion.
I just don't like Rayner or her style and brand of politics.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Yes.
One of the problems with the current Biodiversity Net Gain scheme is that if a farmer takes BNG money to turn an unproductive field into a woodland (or whatever) nobody is quite sure what the inheritance tax implications are and DEFRA / HMRC seem unable to say.
It is no good if you get money to manage land differently but your family then get clobbered with a big tax bill in 30 years because it is no longer "farmed".
As a result many farmers have been reluctant to get involved as IHT is clearly a big issue for them.
I hate to think what will happen if it is due on all land.
One of the problems with the Blair government was that 'business' to them was really just 'big business'. They listened to too many lobbyists and failed to take into account what mattered for small companies, which is what pretty much every normal farm is. As for the self-employed? Bound to be on the make.
I fear very much we are going to see a repeat.
There’s a chunk of the Left who instinctively hates small business.
Given the impact of Brexit on small business exports, I think we can certainly say that the Tories have not been friends of business either.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
Even the sleaze is disappointing. I mean, if you're going to do it, at least go out in a blaze of glory and French prostitutes. This is simultaneously deeply corrupt and deeply lame
If the Tories think Patel is the future, an alliance or temporary pact with Nige will be an easy fit.
The Tory campaign seems to have gone AWOL, as the Americans would say, in the last few days. There doesn't seem to be much, if any, consistent national messaging from them, except about Farage being Putin's messenger.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Hearing Bridget Phillipson on 'The Rest is Politics' enthusing about the number of working-class people on the Labour front bench, I think there's going to be an awful lot of triggering going on.
Voters are entirely uninterested in someone's class - even if the Labour Party are utterly obsessed by it - provided they represent their interests.
It's why working class voters were so big for Boris at first and could be so easily turned off by Rayner.
They want someone who advocates and fights for their interests.
There's been talk of Priti as being the right winger more One Nationers could live with for a few months, it was being mooted during the last putsch rumours
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
It's a perfect combination of ineptness, triviality and taking of the piss. Sums up the 2019-24 Parliament.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
I certainly think it may well finish off any late swingback, it will drive Tory abstentions up
If the Tories think Patel is the future, an alliance or temporary pact with Nige will be an easy fit.
The Tory campaign seems to have gone AWOL, as the Americans would say, in the last few days. There doesn't seem to be much, if any, consistent national messaging from them, except about Farage being Putin's messenger.
@implausibleblog Cleverly's car crash interview on Conservatives placing bets on the election
Trevor Philips, "Is it a sign or moral decay that your Conservative party colleagues were more interested in stuffing their pockets with gambling, than on helping hard pressed families in a cost of living crisis"
James Cleverly, "There is an investgation by the gambling commission"
TP, "It's not just one or two people, there's a lot of them"
JC, "That's not my understanding"
TP, "Were any of your cabinet colleagues involved"
JC, "The Gambling commission says we can't discuss this"
TP, "Why doesn't Rishi Sunak call in the alleged offenders, ask them did you place a bet, yes or no, and if the answer is yes, sack them"
JC, "Because that's the gambling commissions role"
TP, "No, he's the Prime Minister, they work for him"
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin.
Wycombe is a lab gain according to 4 mrps, Richmond is one of 42 Con holds they all agree on (NS, YG, Ipsos, EC)
Telegraph MRP is paywalled which has Rishi losing his.
Rishi's hold is ~ 3-4k whereas the Lab gain from Baker according to all the MRPs (Tele is worst for the Tories) looks to be a majority of around 10,000.
Baker is toast.
Please tell me the pun was deliberate.
As it happens, this is the kind of against-the-flow result I'm looking out for. There are bound to be some, and Baker has some things going for him that few others do - like being a decent MP for a start.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
It's a perfect combination of ineptness, triviality and taking of the piss. Sums up the 2019-24 Parliament.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Hearing Bridget Phillipson on 'The Rest is Politics' enthusing about the number of working-class people on the Labour front bench, I think there's going to be an awful lot of triggering going on.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
Good morning again Ian. A gentle comment from me but having made big play of Alex’s warning about NOT using the MRPs to focus on individual constituency results you have been doing exactly that!
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems appear to have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
I may have mentioned this before but the NRL is a seriously underrated competition. It’s by far the best club rugby tournament, of either code, in the world.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin.
Wycombe is a lab gain according to 4 mrps, Richmond is one of 42 Con holds they all agree on (NS, YG, Ipsos, EC)
Telegraph MRP is paywalled which has Rishi losing his.
Rishi's hold is ~ 3-4k whereas the Lab gain from Baker according to all the MRPs (Tele is worst for the Tories) looks to be a majority of around 10,000.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
That would probably be a good thing for what is left of the Tory Party. Former self-styled "Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker" seems to have had a Damascene conversion to sanity in recent years.
The rump Tory party will need someone who is sane. Especially someone who used to be a headbanger but has seen the light.
Steve Baker is an odd fish, he sits slightly uncomfortably with the Tories, and his mostly right wing views are much more Libertarian than say Rees Moggs Cosplay Toryism. He is a genuine independent and that might just save him.
He’s also a lovely guy and a very hard worker. Despite being very far away from him politically he is one of my favourite MPs that I’ve worked with. Not sure if that counts for much in this current electoral climate though.
Yes, I quite like Steve Baker. I don't agree with him on everything, but who does?
Comments
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.
Acceptable under the circumstances.
Now given how Khan won by a landslide there's no way their canvassing returns showed anything like that, I they must've known Hall had no chance
Someone started those rumours to make a killing in the betting markets
The question to ask them is "do patriots pay their taxes in Britain?".
The rump Tory party will need someone who is sane. Especially someone who used to be a headbanger but has seen the light.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Telegraph MRP is paywalled which has Rishi losing his.
Rishi's hold is ~ 3-4k whereas the Lab gain from Baker according to all the MRPs (Tele is worst for the Tories) looks to be a majority of around 10,000.
Verian (ex-Kantar) / Survation / Opinium
Con 21/20/20 Lab 39/41/40 LD 13/12/12 Green 7/6/9 Ref 13/15/16
Look pretty converged to me. So on UNS at the best possible Con figures between those three we get -
Lab 417, Con 134, LD 56, Nats 21, G 1, Oths 21 (Is this the best the Cons can hope for?) That is without any tactical voting or differential swings (both of which are happening).
Time to revise down my estimate of 150 Con seats to 100-125
One of the problems with the current Biodiversity Net Gain scheme is that if a farmer takes BNG money to turn an unproductive field into a woodland (or whatever) nobody is quite sure what the inheritance tax implications are and DEFRA / HMRC seem unable to say.
It is no good if you get money to manage land differently but your family then get clobbered with a big tax bill in 30 years because it is no longer "farmed".
As a result many farmers have been reluctant to get involved as IHT is clearly a big issue for them.
I hate to think what will happen if it is due on all land.
One of the problems with the Blair government was that 'business' to them was really just 'big business'. They listened to too many lobbyists and failed to take into account what mattered for small companies, which is what pretty much every normal farm is. As for the self-employed? Bound to be on the make.
I fear very much we are going to see a repeat.
"Were you up for Truss?"
"Were you up for Hunt?"
"Were you up for Sunak?"
"Were you up for Braverman?"
etc...
Perhaps PB could produce some sort of scorecard to collect and keep?
On the other hand he has been very lucky to date so if that sticks with him he may yet do good.
Only time will tell.
Who do they send out do defend it on the media round?
the guy that call Rwanda 'batshit'
The Labour mole in CCHQ is perilously close to blowing their cover...
EXC: Rishi Sunak pulled out of campaigning with a Tory candidate on the day polls predicted he would lose his own seat
Sources said it was a 'knee-jerk reaction' to the dire polling
https://x.com/AVMikhailova/status/1804784323008041139
I'm on at 20s
Some modest fellow tipped her at 33/1
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/18/i-agree-with-david-gauke/
In my neck of the woods Norfolk, take out the Norwichs which will be Labour safely, the remaining 8 seats (incl Waveney Valley), the Tories could conceivably win all or none and all by a few % either way. I'd expect the random fluctuations of life to ensure they hold something, with SW, NW, Mid and North in that order more likely than Waveney, Broadland, Yarmouth and South in that.
Gut feeling is 2 of NW, SW and Mid stay blue, the rest go elsewhere, although Waveney might be a win if the green vote doesn't turn out in force. I don't think Reform will do as well in the county as expected
But to divert resources there just because of that, rather than to more winnable (or less losable) seats?
Given that some MRPs show the Tories and the Lib Dems separated by only a handful of seats, shouldn't they be concentrating on remaining the official opposition? Becoming the third party in parliament would have far worse long-term effects on the party than the prime minister losing his seat.
There is simply no rational case for voters switching away from the Tories… muses Dan Hannan.
A statement which doesn’t make the top 10 of idiotic Hannan takes. But which amply shows just how far the Tory Party has to travel.
@SeanJonesKC
This is the point. Of course Dan Hannan is wrong, that’s axiomatic, but how he is wrong is significant. If the Tories can’t work out why they are where they are there is little hope for them. It will lead to them trying to do the same thing only harder.
It's coming home.
I’ve no great expectations of the next government, either - though they can hardly be worse than this one. Any surprises on the upside will be welcome.
Reeves doesn’t so far appear to be a fool. And the relative vagueness of their manifesto has left them some room for manoeuvre.
Even the sleaze is disappointing. I mean, if you're going to do it, at least go out in a blaze of glory and French prostitutes. This is simultaneously deeply corrupt and deeply lame
Nevertheless I'd want much better odds than that on Baker.
Wycombe is almost the perfect seat for how demographic change is elbowing out Tories.
Cleverly's car crash interview on Conservatives placing bets on the election
Trevor Philips, "Is it a sign or moral decay that your Conservative party colleagues were more interested in stuffing their pockets with gambling, than on helping hard pressed families in a cost of living crisis"
James Cleverly, "There is an investgation by the gambling commission"
TP, "It's not just one or two people, there's a lot of them"
JC, "That's not my understanding"
TP, "Were any of your cabinet colleagues involved"
JC, "The Gambling commission says we can't discuss this"
TP, "Why doesn't Rishi Sunak call in the alleged offenders, ask them did you place a bet, yes or no, and if the answer is yes, sack them"
JC, "Because that's the gambling commissions role"
TP, "No, he's the Prime Minister, they work for him"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1804788654608412971
I am not saying Baker will survive, but I think it is possible, and that is interesting of itself.
Remember, folks, that if you're drinking into the small hours, you won't be safe to drive until much later the next day then you think. Best to plan to avoid driving at all.
I don't have the same issue with Jess Phillips, Lisa Nandy or Bridget Phillipson - even though I dont agree with them. And I admire Rosie Duffield and Sarah Champion.
I just don't like Rayner or her style and brand of politics.
FOBT = Fcking Offensive Bent Tories
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
That has to be PB Comment of the Year!
The Tory campaign seems to have gone AWOL, as the Americans would say, in the last few days. There doesn't seem to be much, if any, consistent national messaging from them, except about Farage being Putin's messenger.
It's why working class voters were so big for Boris at first and could be so easily turned off by Rayner.
They want someone who advocates and fights for their interests.
But go back five years, PP was mad, extreme and disgraced. That she's now the sensible mainstream choice shows how deep the deep end has already been.
As it happens, this is the kind of against-the-flow result I'm looking out for. There are bound to be some, and Baker has some things going for him that few others do - like being a decent MP for a start.
Might be tempted at 5/1.
The fat lady is clearing her throat,
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001381
https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/press-and-polls/mrp-model-daily-telegraph-19-june-2024/
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems appear to have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
cc. @ClippP