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Political betting dominates the news – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,727

    Why do we care what a distant relation to Churchill thinks?

    He has breeding.
    We all have breeding.
    I don't.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    Why not? The Tories want to go hard on immigration, say that Labour will not, and tell Reform voters (who they believe to be most exercised by immigration) that they share their concerns and set out the risk if they let in a Labour government.

    A video of a red carpet being rolled out on the beach if peopel vote Labour fits that message.
    They've had 14 years to do something about this and haven't. That's the problem.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,624
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Personal request

    There's a little caravan on Custom House Quay in Falmouth knocking out river Fal oysters at 4 for a tenner. It's important for my wellbeing that this place stays in business, so please patronise it. That is all.
    You want me to mention it in a piece for the gazette or whoever? I can do that. DM me
    https://www.kelpcanteen.com/

    These guys, and my only interest is I want to be able to keep on eating their oysters when I am in Falmouth. So yes a heads up in the gazette would be awesome.
    Sorry. @cicero and @TSE have told me not to mention any of this, apologies. Blame them
    Oh God, will this narcissistic twattery never cease? Considering you are a late boomer, you really might as well be 5.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Personal request

    There's a little caravan on Custom House Quay in Falmouth knocking out river Fal oysters at 4 for a tenner. It's important for my wellbeing that this place stays in business, so please patronise it. That is all.
    Will go there next time we're in the area. (Is the Simon Drew art studio/shop still open?)
    I think he is Dartmouth not Falmouth?
    Thanks for the correction.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,163

    TimS said:

    eristdoof said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    9 minutes past the solstice. Start of astronomical summer 🌞🌞

    So the nights are drawing in. Wonderful.
    You have to bank the plusses that you can. On 21st December I tell myself it's all getting better for the next 6 months. Great. On 21st June I tell myself that summer is not over till at least well into September and there is 3 months to go. And then, I say, autumn is often the best of all. And then it's December again. Snowdrops...and so it goes on.
    Autumn is far from "Best of all". Drizzle, winter jackets taken out of the wardrobe to be used every day for the next 5 months, humidity jumps through the roof, central heating turned on. No more evenings outside at the pub ... and term starts again. The only savng grace is colourful leaves and it not being as cold as January!
    Pulling the curtains, lighting the fire and engaging in your own form of nesting, love it.
    You are of course one of the PBers who is also a weather geek, like me.

    It's always surprised me how many weather geeks - almost certainly a majority - love cold weather and particularly snow. They go mad for it. I've been a contributor to weather forums for a couple of decades now and my activity seems to be the inverse of most: I am most interested in summer weather, heatwaves and thunderstorms, and couldn't care less about winter.
    Yep, hands up I love the snow and cold. But there are plenty who chase the summer warmth too. I think we are pretty lucky in the U.K. to have pretty decent seasons, albeit I am sad at the influence of climate change on U.K. winters.
    I like having different seasons. Hoar frost, snow, solemn November greyness, the whiff of autumn in September, the freshness and greenest of Spring.

    It's variety that makes our climate so interesting.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    Trump is winning the crypto bro vote...

    https://x.com/tyler/status/1803872859938549920
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908
    edited June 20
    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Where is this? I was going to say Richmond but don't think so.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,526
    edited June 20
    Labour hold the delayed Coventry council seat on what looks like pretty much similar result to last time over Tories
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,305

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Listen up, stupid fuck. The starting point is that extraordinary claims require evidence. You think there are conspiracies to steal elections in this country? Put up some evidence. Asking people to come up with evidence that something DIDN'T happen is -- and you should stop for a moment here to think about how obvious this is -- witless.

    Now, given that I also made a claim, that Russia attempts to interfere with Western politics through disinformation and that we all need to be on guard for this, it's only fair I direct you to some evidence for that.

    USA:
    https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-committee-releases-bipartisan-report-russia’s-use-social-media

    UK:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exposes-attempted-russian-cyber-interference-in-politics-and-democratic-processes

    Germany:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/26/germany-unearths-pro-russia-disinformation-campaign-on-x

    These a metric fucktonne of this stuff if you want to gorge yourself silly.

    Now, go back and think about the claims that started this... MI5 or whoever fiddled some vote here. Where's the evidence? Oh, you don't have any? THAT is why it's a conspiracy theory. Moron.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,751

    Trump is winning the crypto bro vote...

    https://x.com/tyler/status/1803872859938549920

    I didn't need more evidence that Trump is a dangerous, delusional figure, but the crypto bros going his way certainly cements that fact.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,519
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    eristdoof said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    9 minutes past the solstice. Start of astronomical summer 🌞🌞

    So the nights are drawing in. Wonderful.
    You have to bank the plusses that you can. On 21st December I tell myself it's all getting better for the next 6 months. Great. On 21st June I tell myself that summer is not over till at least well into September and there is 3 months to go. And then, I say, autumn is often the best of all. And then it's December again. Snowdrops...and so it goes on.
    Autumn is far from "Best of all". Drizzle, winter jackets taken out of the wardrobe to be used every day for the next 5 months, humidity jumps through the roof, central heating turned on. No more evenings outside at the pub ... and term starts again. The only savng grace is colourful leaves and it not being as cold as January!
    Pulling the curtains, lighting the fire and engaging in your own form of nesting, love it.
    You are of course one of the PBers who is also a weather geek, like me.

    It's always surprised me how many weather geeks - almost certainly a majority - love cold weather and particularly snow. They go mad for it. I've been a contributor to weather forums for a couple of decades now and my activity seems to be the inverse of most: I am most interested in summer weather, heatwaves and thunderstorms, and couldn't care less about winter.
    Yep, hands up I love the snow and cold. But there are plenty who chase the summer warmth too. I think we are pretty lucky in the U.K. to have pretty decent seasons, albeit I am sad at the influence of climate change on U.K. winters.
    I like having different seasons. Hoar frost, snow, solemn November greyness, the whiff of autumn in September, the freshness and greenest of Spring.

    It's variety that makes our climate so interesting.
    This is why I could never have a holiday home. Buggering off to Portugal for a week in February, yes. But buggering off for two months? I'd miss so much. Taking the same walk through the same landscape every week or two weeks all year is a great pleasure.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,751
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    eristdoof said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    9 minutes past the solstice. Start of astronomical summer 🌞🌞

    So the nights are drawing in. Wonderful.
    You have to bank the plusses that you can. On 21st December I tell myself it's all getting better for the next 6 months. Great. On 21st June I tell myself that summer is not over till at least well into September and there is 3 months to go. And then, I say, autumn is often the best of all. And then it's December again. Snowdrops...and so it goes on.
    Autumn is far from "Best of all". Drizzle, winter jackets taken out of the wardrobe to be used every day for the next 5 months, humidity jumps through the roof, central heating turned on. No more evenings outside at the pub ... and term starts again. The only savng grace is colourful leaves and it not being as cold as January!
    Pulling the curtains, lighting the fire and engaging in your own form of nesting, love it.
    You are of course one of the PBers who is also a weather geek, like me.

    It's always surprised me how many weather geeks - almost certainly a majority - love cold weather and particularly snow. They go mad for it. I've been a contributor to weather forums for a couple of decades now and my activity seems to be the inverse of most: I am most interested in summer weather, heatwaves and thunderstorms, and couldn't care less about winter.
    Yep, hands up I love the snow and cold. But there are plenty who chase the summer warmth too. I think we are pretty lucky in the U.K. to have pretty decent seasons, albeit I am sad at the influence of climate change on U.K. winters.
    I like having different seasons. Hoar frost, snow, solemn November greyness, the whiff of autumn in September, the freshness and greenest of Spring.

    It's variety that makes our climate so interesting.
    I recall once being told in the future we would have only two seasons - the one with cold sludge, and the one with warm sludge.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,751
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    Why not? The Tories want to go hard on immigration, say that Labour will not, and tell Reform voters (who they believe to be most exercised by immigration) that they share their concerns and set out the risk if they let in a Labour government.

    A video of a red carpet being rolled out on the beach if peopel vote Labour fits that message.
    They've had 14 years to do something about this and haven't. That's the problem.
    Which should tell us something - first, it's harder to solve than people pretend, and second, that the electorate didn't really care that much before now, at least not enough compared to other issues, which explains why not doing something was the chosen option.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,800
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunaks tactics pretty clear, positive reception for his performance tonight from the likes of Oakeshott and Patrick O'Flynn. The hunt for Reform votes is on

    Makes sense when the combined Tory/Reform share is about 38% and Cameron won a majority in 2015 with less than that.
    Only if you think Tory and Conservative voters are fungible. On major social issues, current Tory voters are closer to Labour than they are to Reform voters.

    They will lose as many as they gain.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,793
    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Spooky similarity of composition, though I think I prefer my light.


  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,526
    edited June 20
    Lib Dem hold in Tiverton Westexe on similar gap to last time over Cons, maybe a bit of a swing to LDs
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,274

    MikeL said:

    If Starmer is going to have some regulator telling landlords which prospective tenant they have to choose then many landlords will say "No thanks" and just sell up.

    OK, it may push house prices down a bit. But it will leave a situation where if people aren't able to buy then they'll have no choice whatsoever other than to stay with Mum and Dad.

    This appears to be Starmer's solution to lots of things. Have a new quango regulator and nanny state stuff....and he can do this because the Tories have been proposing similar BS.
    Wouldn't you just do something like require rentals to have an advertised price? You can still pick which tenant you want, and discount down if you like. But you can't ratchet it up. It doesn't stop prices going up (you just raise the advertised price) but it is more transparent.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,519


    Flip-flopper.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,519
    mwadams said:

    MikeL said:

    If Starmer is going to have some regulator telling landlords which prospective tenant they have to choose then many landlords will say "No thanks" and just sell up.

    OK, it may push house prices down a bit. But it will leave a situation where if people aren't able to buy then they'll have no choice whatsoever other than to stay with Mum and Dad.

    This appears to be Starmer's solution to lots of things. Have a new quango regulator and nanny state stuff....and he can do this because the Tories have been proposing similar BS.
    Wouldn't you just do something like require rentals to have an advertised price? You can still pick which tenant you want, and discount down if you like. But you can't ratchet it up. It doesn't stop prices going up (you just raise the advertised price) but it is more transparent.
    As someone who had to offer £50 per month extra to persuade a jittery landlord that it was ok to rent to a self employed person, I value the flexibility. If the price were fixed, I would simply have been denied.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Spooky similarity of composition, though I think I prefer my light.


    Do you know where Leon's photo is?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,305
    TOPPING said:

    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    On immigration: "How can you make a plan for the economy when you won't say how many people you want in the country "

    How indeed.

    I would counter that with "how can businesses invest when they know the labour market is being made inflexible by quotas?"
    Immigration means more jobs created. It's not obvious, I'll admit, but it's true.

    Plus, how much do you actually want the government "planning" the economy? Do we want five year plans? I don't think we do. Let the market do its thing.
    So no plans is your idea. That's bonkers. I'm not saying there's a right or a wrong number but just to wing it is absurd. Lab are building 1.5m houses. What if it's not enough. They are the government and it is reasonable to ask how big they want the population to be.
    Uh, no. I asked a perfectly legitimate question: how much do you want the government planning the economy?

    Me, I DO want the government inserting itself into house building, using the private sector and driving building forwards. I do NOT want the government setting limits on immigration. Yes there need to be RULES on immigration. But if there are vacancies that companies need filled, hiring from abroad is legitimate. Telling a company "sorry you're struggling to find someone, but you can't hire that person from Denmark because we've hit our target this year" is a recipe for buggering up the economy. Because companies in that situation will suffer from reduced inward investment and they will offshore operations to places where worker movement is more flexible.

    Maybe there is some "correct" number of people there should be. I can't for the life of me think how you'd go about deciding that. What if you get your slide rule out and discover that the right number of 28,200,000? Then what?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    edited June 20
    carnforth said:


    Flip-flopper.

    Both Billionaires who expressed their new found love for the Labour party a couple of days ago have a long and recent history of standing for everything Starmer doesn't. I don't think they will remain best buds for very long.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,974
    Worth watching tonight’s by-election results. 1 Tory defence in Mansfield, which should go to Labour on current polling. 2 Lib Dem defences, 2 safe Labour defences.

    https://x.com/andrewteale/status/1803920646130536829?s=46

    Annoyingly in none of these seats is Reform standing, so we have no way of testing their current polling. Says a lot about the party’s commitment to actual electoral politics and administration.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,876
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Where is this? I was going to say Richmond but don't think so.
    No, good guess - Richmond it is, with some friends, having a midsummer drink

    It was absolutely lovely, and it stayed lovely until dark, when a lustrous moon arose. Delightful
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,526
    TimS said:

    Worth watching tonight’s by-election results. 1 Tory defence in Mansfield, which should go to Labour on current polling. 2 Lib Dem defences, 2 safe Labour defences.

    https://x.com/andrewteale/status/1803920646130536829?s=46

    Annoyingly in none of these seats is Reform standing, so we have no way of testing their current polling. Says a lot about the party’s commitment to actual electoral politics and administration.

    3 LD defences not 2, they have held Tiverton, labour held the delayed Coventry ward so far
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908
    Idea for a competition: if the Tories are reduced to 50 seats, which 50 would they be?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,974

    TimS said:

    Worth watching tonight’s by-election results. 1 Tory defence in Mansfield, which should go to Labour on current polling. 2 Lib Dem defences, 2 safe Labour defences.

    https://x.com/andrewteale/status/1803920646130536829?s=46

    Annoyingly in none of these seats is Reform standing, so we have no way of testing their current polling. Says a lot about the party’s commitment to actual electoral politics and administration.

    3 LD defences not 2, they have held Tiverton, labour held the delayed Coventry ward so far
    Conservatives holding up OK in both. They certainly don’t seem to be completely collapsing on the basis of council by-elections during this campaign.
  • Options
    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 270
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Personal request

    There's a little caravan on Custom House Quay in Falmouth knocking out river Fal oysters at 4 for a tenner. It's important for my wellbeing that this place stays in business, so please patronise it. That is all.
    You want me to mention it in a piece for the gazette or whoever? I can do that. DM me
    https://www.kelpcanteen.com/

    These guys, and my only interest is I want to be able to keep on eating their oysters when I am in Falmouth. So yes a heads up in the gazette would be awesome.
    Sorry. @cicero and @TSE have told me not to mention any of this, apologies. Blame them
    ? They can control what u publish in other outlets?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,217

    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    This election is getting me worried about the future of democracy. It seems likely that Labour will get a disproportionate majority which is a serious distortion of their share of the vote. The 'right' on the other hand will be severely underrepresented in Parliament relative to their eventual share of the vote (probably circa 40%). The driving force for Labour in power will be passing legislation they want, which they will effectively be able to do with no opposition. I suppose this is the 'supermajority' fear that the conservatives are trying to play to , but it seems to me like a big danger for democracy, because the position of the party in power will not be seen as legitimate.

    The 2019 result was disproportionate as were many others. It’s a feature of non proportional representation systems. The trick is to disapprove when it favours your side.
    Sorry but we could be looking at a result that is a whole different scale to anything we have seen before. Wasn't there a poll suggesting over 500 Labour MPs with less than 40% of the vote? And possibly with the Lib Dems as the official opposition?
    With all due respect, you Conservatives could have changed to a fairer, more proportional voting system in any one of the 51 years you have been in power over the last 75 years. I for one would have been quite content for you to have done that.

    You are bellyaching now because FPTP no longer appears to advantage your side. Diddums!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,526
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Worth watching tonight’s by-election results. 1 Tory defence in Mansfield, which should go to Labour on current polling. 2 Lib Dem defences, 2 safe Labour defences.

    https://x.com/andrewteale/status/1803920646130536829?s=46

    Annoyingly in none of these seats is Reform standing, so we have no way of testing their current polling. Says a lot about the party’s commitment to actual electoral politics and administration.

    3 LD defences not 2, they have held Tiverton, labour held the delayed Coventry ward so far
    Conservatives holding up OK in both. They certainly don’t seem to be completely collapsing on the basis of council by-elections during this campaign.
    True enough, but i think the reckoning is coming
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035
    carnforth said:



    Flip-flopper.

    I know it's not quite this simple, but it does seem odd to say their Net Zero plans are absurd because they will force some oil and gas producers out of business. That seems harsh but consistent.

    (But yes, I do appreciate the argument that this wouldn't reduce fossil fuel production but simply move it to other fields around the world.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,876
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Listen up, stupid fuck. The starting point is that extraordinary claims require evidence. You think there are conspiracies to steal elections in this country? Put up some evidence. Asking people to come up with evidence that something DIDN'T happen is -- and you should stop for a moment here to think about how obvious this is -- witless.

    Now, given that I also made a claim, that Russia attempts to interfere with Western politics through disinformation and that we all need to be on guard for this, it's only fair I direct you to some evidence for that.

    USA:
    https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-committee-releases-bipartisan-report-russia’s-use-social-media

    UK:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exposes-attempted-russian-cyber-interference-in-politics-and-democratic-processes

    Germany:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/26/germany-unearths-pro-russia-disinformation-campaign-on-x

    These a metric fucktonne of this stuff if you want to gorge yourself silly.

    Now, go back and think about the claims that started this... MI5 or whoever fiddled some vote here. Where's the evidence? Oh, you don't have any? THAT is why it's a conspiracy theory. Moron.
    Lab Leak was dismissed - by all of "the science", including the Lancet, in a now provably fraudulent letter - as "a racist conspiracy theory". As such we were literally banned from talking about it for a year, even as a concept, on Twitter and Facebook - largely at the behest of the Biden administration, to an extent where it actually troubled Nick Clegg

    Now it turns out Lab Leak is almost certainly true
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,876
    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Personal request

    There's a little caravan on Custom House Quay in Falmouth knocking out river Fal oysters at 4 for a tenner. It's important for my wellbeing that this place stays in business, so please patronise it. That is all.
    You want me to mention it in a piece for the gazette or whoever? I can do that. DM me
    https://www.kelpcanteen.com/

    These guys, and my only interest is I want to be able to keep on eating their oysters when I am in Falmouth. So yes a heads up in the gazette would be awesome.
    Sorry. @cicero and @TSE have told me not to mention any of this, apologies. Blame them
    ? They can control what u publish in other outlets?
    @Cicero is a wanker, but @TSE limits me on what I can talk about and do on PB, to a serious extent, such that it limits my ability to discuss things on here and then take them elsewhere and publish

    Speak to the authorities
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,274
    carnforth said:

    mwadams said:

    MikeL said:

    If Starmer is going to have some regulator telling landlords which prospective tenant they have to choose then many landlords will say "No thanks" and just sell up.

    OK, it may push house prices down a bit. But it will leave a situation where if people aren't able to buy then they'll have no choice whatsoever other than to stay with Mum and Dad.

    This appears to be Starmer's solution to lots of things. Have a new quango regulator and nanny state stuff....and he can do this because the Tories have been proposing similar BS.
    Wouldn't you just do something like require rentals to have an advertised price? You can still pick which tenant you want, and discount down if you like. But you can't ratchet it up. It doesn't stop prices going up (you just raise the advertised price) but it is more transparent.
    As someone who had to offer £50 per month extra to persuade a jittery landlord that it was ok to rent to a self employed person, I value the flexibility. If the price were fixed, I would simply have been denied.
    I don't know what your rent is, but an extra £50 a month doesn't sound like it gives the landlord any meaningful extra security if you suddenly can't make the rent - it sounds like an excuse to stiff you for an extra.£50/month.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,217
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    Why not? The Tories want to go hard on immigration, say that Labour will not, and tell Reform voters (who they believe to be most exercised by immigration) that they share their concerns and set out the risk if they let in a Labour government.

    A video of a red carpet being rolled out on the beach if peopel vote Labour fits that message.
    Genius!

    I have however noted a flaw in your wizard wheeze. The Conservatives have been in office during a period of eye-watering immigration, if that sort of concern floats your boat.

    Just a minor technicality, I guess.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    Why not? The Tories want to go hard on immigration, say that Labour will not, and tell Reform voters (who they believe to be most exercised by immigration) that they share their concerns and set out the risk if they let in a Labour government.

    A video of a red carpet being rolled out on the beach if peopel vote Labour fits that message.
    Genius!

    I have however noted a flaw in your wizard wheeze. The Conservatives have been in office during a period of eye-watering immigration, if that sort of concern floats your boat.

    Just a minor technicality, I guess.
    They've annoyed everyone on this subject. It's surprising 20% still support them.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    edited June 20
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Listen up, stupid fuck. The starting point is that extraordinary claims require evidence. You think there are conspiracies to steal elections in this country? Put up some evidence. Asking people to come up with evidence that something DIDN'T happen is -- and you should stop for a moment here to think about how obvious this is -- witless.

    Now, given that I also made a claim, that Russia attempts to interfere with Western politics through disinformation and that we all need to be on guard for this, it's only fair I direct you to some evidence for that.

    USA:
    https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-committee-releases-bipartisan-report-russia’s-use-social-media

    UK:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exposes-attempted-russian-cyber-interference-in-politics-and-democratic-processes

    Germany:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/26/germany-unearths-pro-russia-disinformation-campaign-on-x

    These a metric fucktonne of this stuff if you want to gorge yourself silly.

    Now, go back and think about the claims that started this... MI5 or whoever fiddled some vote here. Where's the evidence? Oh, you don't have any? THAT is why it's a conspiracy theory. Moron.
    Lab Leak was dismissed - by all of "the science", including the Lancet, in a now provably fraudulent letter - as "a racist conspiracy theory". As such we were literally banned from talking about it for a year, even as a concept, on Twitter and Facebook - largely at the behest of the Biden administration, to an extent where it actually troubled Nick Clegg

    Now it turns out Lab Leak is almost certainly true
    Its amazing how the Lancet editor, despite scandal after scandal appears to be in the vicinity of them and yet there he still is.
  • Options
    bobbobbobbob Posts: 49
    edited June 20
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    Why not? The Tories want to go hard on immigration, say that Labour will not, and tell Reform voters (who they believe to be most exercised by immigration) that they share their concerns and set out the risk if they let in a Labour government.

    A video of a red carpet being rolled out on the beach if peopel vote Labour fits that message.
    No credibility !

    This is the provlem is they can’t run their greatest hits for their base

    Immigration… at record levels
    Tax… at record high levels
    National debt… at record highs

    People trust an unknown starmer more than a known faailure

    They clearly don’t want to talk about Covid or brexit

    Even trust with Covid parties and dodgy bets and truss scarring the markets

    Even that wouldn’t be so bad if sunak was likeable and relatable like boris or major but hes not

    I’m convinced the no 1 quality for a party leader is to seem likeable or at least look strong and in control and fishy rishi does not have that
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,526
    edited June 20
    Labour have taken the Mansfield seat from Cons, no figures yet
    LDs cling on just to the two Oxfordshire seats, one by 12 votes from the greens (Tories only a further 40 votes behind) and on the county council by about 50 votes from the Tories. Swing against them in both
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,291
    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,205
    edited June 20
    From Andrew Teale's by-election (council) preview:

    "In recent local elections this corner of Oxfordshire has been an unmitigated disaster area for the Conservative Party. At the 2015 local elections the Conservatives won 33 out of 36 seats on South Oxfordshire council and 29 out of 38 in Vale of White Horse. Nine years later they now have one seat left in South Oxfordshire and have been completely wiped out in the Vale, whose composition now stands at 34 Lib Dems and 4 Greens."

    As somebody who grew p in the area at that time the shift is not surprising, but is still remarkable. The people didn't leave the Tories - they either alienated them via failing to delivery or extremist rhetoric. I know a decent few formerly solid blues in each category - more who have fallen in each direction than remained with them.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264

    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978

    And they got community noted with claims of "murder".
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,459
    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    On immigration: "How can you make a plan for the economy when you won't say how many people you want in the country "

    How indeed.

    I would counter that with "how can businesses invest when they know the labour market is being made inflexible by quotas?"
    Immigration means more jobs created. It's not obvious, I'll admit, but it's true.

    Plus, how much do you actually want the government "planning" the economy? Do we want five year plans? I don't think we do. Let the market do its thing.
    So no plans is your idea. That's bonkers. I'm not saying there's a right or a wrong number but just to wing it is absurd. Lab are building 1.5m houses. What if it's not enough. They are the government and it is reasonable to ask how big they want the population to be.
    Uh, no. I asked a perfectly legitimate question: how much do you want the government planning the economy?

    Me, I DO want the government inserting itself into house building, using the private sector and driving building forwards. I do NOT want the government setting limits on immigration. Yes there need to be RULES on immigration. But if there are vacancies that companies need filled, hiring from abroad is legitimate. Telling a company "sorry you're struggling to find someone, but you can't hire that person from Denmark because we've hit our target this year" is a recipe for buggering up the economy. Because companies in that situation will suffer from reduced inward investment and they will offshore operations to places where worker movement is more flexible.

    Maybe there is some "correct" number of people there should be. I can't for the life of me think how you'd go about deciding that. What if you get your slide rule out and discover that the right number of 28,200,000? Then what?
    I agree - though I would put the same emphasis on Thailand or India (for example) as on Denmark.

    As I said the other day, if people have a means of support (job or independent wealth) and do not pose a criminal or security threat to the country then it should not be the Government's business to prevent them coming to the UK.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,459

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    I must correct the characterisation that I am on 'the right'. I have said several times that I am voting for Labour. I have however made a prediction that the next political movement in the UK will be on what people describe as the 'far right'. This is not something I want to happen, I just think it will, because of the likely failure of 'centrism' to take in to account opposing views on matters like immigration and cultural issues, views which a lot of people hold. This, and the fact of 'reactive dynamics', together with other global political shifts, mean that it seems very likely to me that people will start to look to the 'far right' for answers, as the 'left' has run out of road. The concern expressed in the last comment was that, if we have a situation where 40% of people vote for right wing parties, and these positions are barely represented in Parliament, then the situation starts to become worrying for democracy. The reaction to this point is quite revealing, it is just something that people have to just 'suck up'...

    I have said before that the best model for dealing with the 'far right' is what has happened in Finland for the last 20 years, the people involved are bought in to the system, and it is somehow made to work.

    When I was criticising the right for pushing the idea that the next Labour government would be illegitimate because of its super-massive majority, I was not necessarily including you in that (it can be hard to keep track of every poster's political position), but more commenting on the many interventions to that effect from Conservative politicians and commentators.
    'Illegitimate' is a very poor choice of words - and it's beyond rich for the Tories to criticise a system which has benefitted them for so long, as soon as its effects turn against them.

    But the criticism of FPTP is entirely correct.
    It's better than no democracy at all, but it's a half arsed, often unfair version of democracy.
    Any for of electoral system that makes it explicitely about the parties is worse than what we have now. At least here we make an effort to say it is about the individual candidates and some of us still vote on that basis. Most PR systems give more power to the parties at a time when we should be doing the exact oposite and trying to reduce the power of parties in our democracy.

    I would have been extremely happy if AV had won out but of course the Lib Dems had a tantrum over it.
    Under FPTP, parties still have the power of picking the candidate.
    But the MP has the absolute right to decide to abandon the party if he disagrees with the direction of travel.

    I am not defending the current situation under FPTP. I am saying that it is bad as the parties have too much power but that PR based on party share will make it worse. It will provide the parties with a moral right within the democratic system.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,459
    Not sure if this has been mentioned before but a great introductory paragraph to a comment piece on tonight's QT debate in the Telegraph:

    "It’s never nice watching someone struggle. While some take a positive pleasure from watching a leader badly out of their depth flounder in a horribly mismanaged campaign, I just feel bad for them. And so it was with a distinct sense of relief that I turned off the England game, and started preparing for the Question Time special."
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,217

    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978

    Thank you William for busting open the scandalous revelation that Starmer unfairly prosecuted some very bad people. It is duly noted.
  • Options
    bobbobbobbob Posts: 49
    edited June 21

    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978

    And they got community noted with claims of "murder".
    Tired of this woke pc 1984 bs

    Whats next you can’t say mao murdered millions ?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    That twitter account has a rather unhealthy obsession with Starmer.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,237
    mwadams said:

    carnforth said:

    mwadams said:

    MikeL said:

    If Starmer is going to have some regulator telling landlords which prospective tenant they have to choose then many landlords will say "No thanks" and just sell up.

    OK, it may push house prices down a bit. But it will leave a situation where if people aren't able to buy then they'll have no choice whatsoever other than to stay with Mum and Dad.

    This appears to be Starmer's solution to lots of things. Have a new quango regulator and nanny state stuff....and he can do this because the Tories have been proposing similar BS.
    Wouldn't you just do something like require rentals to have an advertised price? You can still pick which tenant you want, and discount down if you like. But you can't ratchet it up. It doesn't stop prices going up (you just raise the advertised price) but it is more transparent.
    As someone who had to offer £50 per month extra to persuade a jittery landlord that it was ok to rent to a self employed person, I value the flexibility. If the price were fixed, I would simply have been denied.
    I don't know what your rent is, but an extra £50 a month doesn't sound like it gives the landlord any meaningful extra security if you suddenly can't make the rent - it sounds like an excuse to stiff you for an extra.£50/month.
    I don't think the point is that it gives the landlord more security, I think it's that it gives them a higher return to compensate for their (perceived) higher risk.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,201
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Look. People use shorthands all the time, because they are quick and efficient. Explaining, in detail, why each individual conspiracy theory is complete and utter cobblers is time-consuming, annoying and pointless - because the true believers just don't want to know.

    So it makes sense to use a shorthand, then anyone who hasn't fallen all the way down the rabbit hole is prompted to consider the issue for a moment themselves and consider the available evidence, instead of wasting your time putting together a detailed case that will be dismissed by someone going, "Yeah, but, that's what they said about..."

    And I was convinced by the evidence about Horizon as soon as Private Eye started reporting about it - long before the vicar became involved, so you can take that one and shove it up your arse.
    The CW story in 2009 was an excellent example of good journalism, and made a strong prima facie case for Post Office shenanigans.

    Is there a shred of evidence for this 'ballot stuffing' tale ?
    The idea that 600k illegitimate postal ballots for "remain" is 100% batshit bullshit.
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 453

    That twitter account has a rather unhealthy obsession with Starmer.

    Half of it is pure trolling, interspersed with the rare fair criticism of Starmer to make the account appear more legitimate
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,201
    edited June 21

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    I must correct the characterisation that I am on 'the right'. I have said several times that I am voting for Labour. I have however made a prediction that the next political movement in the UK will be on what people describe as the 'far right'. This is not something I want to happen, I just think it will, because of the likely failure of 'centrism' to take in to account opposing views on matters like immigration and cultural issues, views which a lot of people hold. This, and the fact of 'reactive dynamics', together with other global political shifts, mean that it seems very likely to me that people will start to look to the 'far right' for answers, as the 'left' has run out of road. The concern expressed in the last comment was that, if we have a situation where 40% of people vote for right wing parties, and these positions are barely represented in Parliament, then the situation starts to become worrying for democracy. The reaction to this point is quite revealing, it is just something that people have to just 'suck up'...

    I have said before that the best model for dealing with the 'far right' is what has happened in Finland for the last 20 years, the people involved are bought in to the system, and it is somehow made to work.

    When I was criticising the right for pushing the idea that the next Labour government would be illegitimate because of its super-massive majority, I was not necessarily including you in that (it can be hard to keep track of every poster's political position), but more commenting on the many interventions to that effect from Conservative politicians and commentators.
    'Illegitimate' is a very poor choice of words - and it's beyond rich for the Tories to criticise a system which has benefitted them for so long, as soon as its effects turn against them.

    But the criticism of FPTP is entirely correct.
    It's better than no democracy at all, but it's a half arsed, often unfair version of democracy.
    Any for of electoral system that makes it explicitely about the parties is worse than what we have now. At least here we make an effort to say it is about the individual candidates and some of us still vote on that basis. Most PR systems give more power to the parties at a time when we should be doing the exact oposite and trying to reduce the power of parties in our democracy.

    I would have been extremely happy if AV had won out but of course the Lib Dems had a tantrum over it.
    Under FPTP, parties still have the power of picking the candidate.
    But the MP has the absolute right to decide to abandon the party if he disagrees with the direction of travel.

    I am not defending the current situation under FPTP. I am saying that it is bad as the parties have too much power but that PR based on party share will make it worse. It will provide the parties with a moral right within the democratic system.
    In Liechtenstein, current court case regarding the right of a designated deputy member of parliament - selected by elected MPs for each party, to fill vacancies that may arise in that party's contingent until the next election - to continue as a deputy IF they leave their party.

    Might be relevant, especially as UK and Liechtenstein share the same tune for their national anthems.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908
    edited June 21

    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978

    Thank you William for busting open the scandalous revelation that Starmer unfairly prosecuted some very bad people. It is duly noted.
    It goes without saying of course that the background of a person shouldn't be taken into account when prosecuting them, and deciding on a sentence if they're found guilty. This twitter account implies that it should be.
  • Options
    Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 47


    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    I must correct the characterisation that I am on 'the right'. I have said several times that I am voting for Labour. I have however made a prediction that the next political movement in the UK will be on what people describe as the 'far right'. This is not something I want to happen, I just think it will, because of the likely failure of 'centrism' to take in to account opposing views on matters like immigration and cultural issues, views which a lot of people hold. This, and the fact of 'reactive dynamics', together with other global political shifts, mean that it seems very likely to me that people will start to look to the 'far right' for answers, as the 'left' has run out of road. The concern expressed in the last comment was that, if we have a situation where 40% of people vote for right wing parties, and these positions are barely represented in Parliament, then the situation starts to become worrying for democracy. The reaction to this point is quite revealing, it is just something that people have to just 'suck up'...

    I have said before that the best model for dealing with the 'far right' is what has happened in Finland for the last 20 years, the people involved are bought in to the system, and it is somehow made to work.

    When I was criticising the right for pushing the idea that the next Labour government would be illegitimate because of its super-massive majority, I was not necessarily including you in that (it can be hard to keep track of every poster's political position), but more commenting on the many interventions to that effect from Conservative politicians and commentators.
    'Illegitimate' is a very poor choice of words - and it's beyond rich for the Tories to criticise a system which has benefitted them for so long, as soon as its effects turn against them.

    But the criticism of FPTP is entirely correct.
    It's better than no democracy at all, but it's a half arsed, often unfair version of democracy.
    Any for of electoral system that makes it explicitely about the parties is worse than what we have now. At least here we make an effort to say it is about the individual candidates and some of us still vote on that basis. Most PR systems give more power to the parties at a time when we should be doing the exact oposite and trying to reduce the power of parties in our democracy.

    I would have been extremely happy if AV had won out but of course the Lib Dems had a tantrum over it.
    Under FPTP, parties still have the power of picking the candidate.
    But the MP has the absolute right to decide to abandon the party if he disagrees with the direction of travel.

    I am not defending the current situation under FPTP. I am saying that it is bad as the parties have too much power but that PR based on party share will make it worse. It will provide the parties with a moral right within the democratic system.
    In Liechtenstein, current court case regarding the right of a designated deputy member of parliament - selected by elected MPs for each party, to fill vacancies that may arise in that party's contingent until the next election - to continue as a deputy IF they leave their party.

    Might be relevant, especially as UK and Liechtenstein share the same tune for their national anthems.
    Malaysia uses FPTP and has an anti-party hopping law. If you leave (or are thrown out) of the party that you stood for in the election then your seat is declared vacant and there is a by-election. The reason for that law is less to do with an MP's conscious but more to do with the lure of money that toppled a previous government. At least one party insists on prospective candidates signing a contract that they will pay 10M MYR in compensation to that party should they leave it after being elected.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,237
    Ally_B1 said:


    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    I must correct the characterisation that I am on 'the right'. I have said several times that I am voting for Labour. I have however made a prediction that the next political movement in the UK will be on what people describe as the 'far right'. This is not something I want to happen, I just think it will, because of the likely failure of 'centrism' to take in to account opposing views on matters like immigration and cultural issues, views which a lot of people hold. This, and the fact of 'reactive dynamics', together with other global political shifts, mean that it seems very likely to me that people will start to look to the 'far right' for answers, as the 'left' has run out of road. The concern expressed in the last comment was that, if we have a situation where 40% of people vote for right wing parties, and these positions are barely represented in Parliament, then the situation starts to become worrying for democracy. The reaction to this point is quite revealing, it is just something that people have to just 'suck up'...

    I have said before that the best model for dealing with the 'far right' is what has happened in Finland for the last 20 years, the people involved are bought in to the system, and it is somehow made to work.

    When I was criticising the right for pushing the idea that the next Labour government would be illegitimate because of its super-massive majority, I was not necessarily including you in that (it can be hard to keep track of every poster's political position), but more commenting on the many interventions to that effect from Conservative politicians and commentators.
    'Illegitimate' is a very poor choice of words - and it's beyond rich for the Tories to criticise a system which has benefitted them for so long, as soon as its effects turn against them.

    But the criticism of FPTP is entirely correct.
    It's better than no democracy at all, but it's a half arsed, often unfair version of democracy.
    Any for of electoral system that makes it explicitely about the parties is worse than what we have now. At least here we make an effort to say it is about the individual candidates and some of us still vote on that basis. Most PR systems give more power to the parties at a time when we should be doing the exact oposite and trying to reduce the power of parties in our democracy.

    I would have been extremely happy if AV had won out but of course the Lib Dems had a tantrum over it.
    Under FPTP, parties still have the power of picking the candidate.
    But the MP has the absolute right to decide to abandon the party if he disagrees with the direction of travel.

    I am not defending the current situation under FPTP. I am saying that it is bad as the parties have too much power but that PR based on party share will make it worse. It will provide the parties with a moral right within the democratic system.
    In Liechtenstein, current court case regarding the right of a designated deputy member of parliament - selected by elected MPs for each party, to fill vacancies that may arise in that party's contingent until the next election - to continue as a deputy IF they leave their party.

    Might be relevant, especially as UK and Liechtenstein share the same tune for their national anthems.
    Malaysia uses FPTP and has an anti-party hopping law. If you leave (or are thrown out) of the party that you stood for in the election then your seat is declared vacant and there is a by-election. The reason for that law is less to do with an MP's conscious but more to do with the lure of money that toppled a previous government. At least one party insists on prospective candidates signing a contract that they will pay 10M MYR in compensation to that party should they leave it after being elected.
    Japan also has an anti-party-hopping law, in addition to which a lot of people want to party-hop because the Senate uses Single Non-Transferable Vote where if a party fields too many candidates they split their own vote, so incumbents will be deselected in advance of the election and their only hope is to run for another party. The loophole is that although you can't move from one party to another, you can form a new party. So before every election there's a "realignment" where one of the minor parties gets formally dissolved and replaced by a new party.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    Donald Trump's presidential campaign has received $50m (£39.5m) boost from the conservative billionaire Timothy Mellon, a federal filing showed on Thursday.

    The Super-Pac fund called "MAGA Inc" disclosed to the Federal Election Commission that it took in more than $68m from donors last month.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,765
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Personal request

    There's a little caravan on Custom House Quay in Falmouth knocking out river Fal oysters at 4 for a tenner. It's important for my wellbeing that this place stays in business, so please patronise it. That is all.
    You want me to mention it in a piece for the gazette or whoever? I can do that. DM me
    https://www.kelpcanteen.com/

    These guys, and my only interest is I want to be able to keep on eating their oysters when I am in Falmouth. So yes a heads up in the gazette would be awesome.
    Sorry. @cicero and @TSE have told me not to mention any of this, apologies. Blame them
    Oh God, will this narcissistic twattery never cease? Considering you are a late boomer, you really might as well be 5.
    On careful consideration of the years of evidence, no, it won’t.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    London hospitals hackers publish stolen blood test data

    Overnight on Thursday they shared almost 400GB of the private information on their darknet site and Telegram channel. The data includes patient names, dates of birth, NHS numbers and descriptions of blood tests. It is not known if test results are also in the data. There are also business account spreadsheets detailing financial arrangements between hospitals and GP services and Synnovis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9ww90j9dj8o
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,727

    Donald Trump's presidential campaign has received $50m (£39.5m) boost from the conservative billionaire Timothy Mellon, a federal filing showed on Thursday.

    The Super-Pac fund called "MAGA Inc" disclosed to the Federal Election Commission that it took in more than $68m from donors last month.

    Sounds like Trump has some big legal bills that need paying by his Super-Pac...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    edited June 21

    Donald Trump's presidential campaign has received $50m (£39.5m) boost from the conservative billionaire Timothy Mellon, a federal filing showed on Thursday.

    The Super-Pac fund called "MAGA Inc" disclosed to the Federal Election Commission that it took in more than $68m from donors last month.

    Sounds like Trump has some big legal bills that need paying by his Super-Pac...
    Trump and lawyers, unheard of.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,908

    London hospitals hackers publish stolen blood test data

    Overnight on Thursday they shared almost 400GB of the private information on their darknet site and Telegram channel. The data includes patient names, dates of birth, NHS numbers and descriptions of blood tests. It is not known if test results are also in the data. There are also business account spreadsheets detailing financial arrangements between hospitals and GP services and Synnovis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9ww90j9dj8o

    Why isn't security better?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,237
    Andy_JS said:

    London hospitals hackers publish stolen blood test data

    Overnight on Thursday they shared almost 400GB of the private information on their darknet site and Telegram channel. The data includes patient names, dates of birth, NHS numbers and descriptions of blood tests. It is not known if test results are also in the data. There are also business account spreadsheets detailing financial arrangements between hospitals and GP services and Synnovis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9ww90j9dj8o

    Why isn't security better?
    If you've got an organization with 1.5 million employees handling data on maybe 50 million people, you're going to leak some of it.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,391

    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978

    I think the tweet series enhances not diminishes SKS.
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 631
    edited June 21
    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    That is exactly what I thought when I saw it and rooted around a bit before I posted to check that it is a Genuine Tory Video.

    5.6 million views so far.

    (The video is of someone raking a beach and laying a red carpet down to the sea with the words "Welcome" written in the sand with a subtitle saying "Labours approach to Illegal immigration"

    Rather amusing that pompous centrist Tories are voting Tory instead of Libdem to keep Reform out when their own party is putting out stuff like this).
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,848
    Andy_JS said:

    London hospitals hackers publish stolen blood test data

    Overnight on Thursday they shared almost 400GB of the private information on their darknet site and Telegram channel. The data includes patient names, dates of birth, NHS numbers and descriptions of blood tests. It is not known if test results are also in the data. There are also business account spreadsheets detailing financial arrangements between hospitals and GP services and Synnovis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9ww90j9dj8o

    Why isn't security better?
    Security costs - especially to get people who know what they're doing. Institutional culture also matters - people need to follow processes and not e @sshats with data.

    But there are always zero-day attacks, and sometimes hackers can get lucky.

    It is believed this attack came from Russia. For those fearing a war with Russia: we are already at war with Russia... :(
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,738
    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,163

    Andy_JS said:

    London hospitals hackers publish stolen blood test data

    Overnight on Thursday they shared almost 400GB of the private information on their darknet site and Telegram channel. The data includes patient names, dates of birth, NHS numbers and descriptions of blood tests. It is not known if test results are also in the data. There are also business account spreadsheets detailing financial arrangements between hospitals and GP services and Synnovis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9ww90j9dj8o

    Why isn't security better?
    If you've got an organization with 1.5 million employees handling data on maybe 50 million people, you're going to leak some of it.
    According to the linked story it was a private contractor that was hacked.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,408

    Andy_JS said:

    London hospitals hackers publish stolen blood test data

    Overnight on Thursday they shared almost 400GB of the private information on their darknet site and Telegram channel. The data includes patient names, dates of birth, NHS numbers and descriptions of blood tests. It is not known if test results are also in the data. There are also business account spreadsheets detailing financial arrangements between hospitals and GP services and Synnovis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9ww90j9dj8o

    Why isn't security better?
    Security costs - especially to get people who know what they're doing. Institutional culture also matters - people need to follow processes and not e @sshats with data.

    But there are always zero-day attacks, and sometimes hackers can get lucky.

    It is believed this attack came from Russia. For those fearing a war with Russia: we are already at war with Russia... :(
    People are the weakest link in data security.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,264
    Nigelb said:

    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)

    Canadian and other Western academics are helping Iran and China develop drone technology.
    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1803673574680482066
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,848
    Nigelb said:

    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)

    His argument is not stupid. The article says that 75% of small drones are already being lost over the battlefield, with immature EW systems to counter them. EW systems will improve.

    There is a battle going on between small drones - particularly PFV ones - and counter systems. It is not 'stupid' to suggest that the counter systems may win. Though personally I think, as often occurs, weapon and counter-weapon will evolve.

    But here's the thing: these drones are effective because they are cheap. The more robust you make them against EW or other weapons, the more expensive and larger they become. And their advantage comes from being able to be fielded in large quantities.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,391

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    That is exactly what I thought when I saw it and rooted around a bit before I posted to check that it is a Genuine Tory Video.

    5.6 million views so far.

    (The video is of someone raking a beach and laying a red carpet down to the sea with the words "Welcome" written in the sand with a subtitle saying "Labours approach to Illegal immigration"

    Rather amusing that pompous centrist Tories are voting Tory instead of Libdem to keep Reform out when their own party is putting out stuff like this).
    The replies are a real pincer movement and show why the Tories polling is so awful
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,163

    Nigelb said:

    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)

    His argument is not stupid. The article says that 75% of small drones are already being lost over the battlefield, with immature EW systems to counter them. EW systems will improve.

    There is a battle going on between small drones - particularly PFV ones - and counter systems. It is not 'stupid' to suggest that the counter systems may win. Though personally I think, as often occurs, weapon and counter-weapon will evolve.

    But here's the thing: these drones are effective because they are cheap. The more robust you make them against EW or other weapons, the more expensive and larger they become. And their advantage comes from being able to be fielded in large quantities.
    The problem is that the obvious step to make drones less vulnerable is to make them autonomous.

    Where's Sarah Connor when we need her?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,765

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Look. People use shorthands all the time, because they are quick and efficient. Explaining, in detail, why each individual conspiracy theory is complete and utter cobblers is time-consuming, annoying and pointless - because the true believers just don't want to know.

    So it makes sense to use a shorthand, then anyone who hasn't fallen all the way down the rabbit hole is prompted to consider the issue for a moment themselves and consider the available evidence, instead of wasting your time putting together a detailed case that will be dismissed by someone going, "Yeah, but, that's what they said about..."

    And I was convinced by the evidence about Horizon as soon as Private Eye started reporting about it - long before the vicar became involved, so you can take that one and shove it up your arse.
    The CW story in 2009 was an excellent example of good journalism, and made a strong prima facie case for Post Office shenanigans.

    Is there a shred of evidence for this 'ballot stuffing' tale ?
    The idea that 600k illegitimate postal ballots for "remain" is 100% batshit bullshit.
    No. It is way beyond 100% batshit bullshit. It is the kind of stuff that Trump drops from his speeches because it is too embarrassingly stupid. For him.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,848
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)

    His argument is not stupid. The article says that 75% of small drones are already being lost over the battlefield, with immature EW systems to counter them. EW systems will improve.

    There is a battle going on between small drones - particularly PFV ones - and counter systems. It is not 'stupid' to suggest that the counter systems may win. Though personally I think, as often occurs, weapon and counter-weapon will evolve.

    But here's the thing: these drones are effective because they are cheap. The more robust you make them against EW or other weapons, the more expensive and larger they become. And their advantage comes from being able to be fielded in large quantities.
    The problem is that the obvious step to make drones less vulnerable is to make them autonomous.

    Where's Sarah Connor when we need her?
    That may make them less vulnerable, but it does not make them invulnerable. And if being autonomous means reduced accuracy, then that really matters, as their payloads are really small. If your small drone has a warhead capable of killing something within two metres, and it's CEP reduced from a few centimetres (because it is being flown by a human) to twenty metres, then it becomes largely ineffective.

    (CEP: Circle Error Probability: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable )
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,057

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Look. People use shorthands all the time, because they are quick and efficient. Explaining, in detail, why each individual conspiracy theory is complete and utter cobblers is time-consuming, annoying and pointless - because the true believers just don't want to know.

    So it makes sense to use a shorthand, then anyone who hasn't fallen all the way down the rabbit hole is prompted to consider the issue for a moment themselves and consider the available evidence, instead of wasting your time putting together a detailed case that will be dismissed by someone going, "Yeah, but, that's what they said about..."

    And I was convinced by the evidence about Horizon as soon as Private Eye started reporting about it - long before the vicar became involved, so you can take that one and shove it up your arse.
    The CW story in 2009 was an excellent example of good journalism, and made a strong prima facie case for Post Office shenanigans.

    Is there a shred of evidence for this 'ballot stuffing' tale ?
    The idea that 600k illegitimate postal ballots for "remain" is 100% batshit bullshit.
    No. It is way beyond 100% batshit bullshit. It is the kind of stuff that Trump drops from his speeches because it is too embarrassingly stupid. For him.
    Conspiracies exist. From a couple of execs agreeing to put a lunch on expenses to Nixon trying to cover up Watergate to a knowledgable couple putting a few quid on advance knowledge of an election date. Millions of little conspiracies. But the bigger the conspiracy gets the less likely it is to keep under wraps. The idea that more than half a million pieces of paper were printed and completed for Remain (by hand to preserve the illusion) and inserted into the postal system, somehow, with no one noticing is logically moronic. If the “deep state” wanted to fix the result there were far easier ways to have done it.

    It’s like the Diana conspiracy theories which posit a plot that could have been thwarted by the use of a seat belt by the victim. Falls apart under any level of analysis.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Ok maybe life in Britain isn’t SO bad


    Personal request

    There's a little caravan on Custom House Quay in Falmouth knocking out river Fal oysters at 4 for a tenner. It's important for my wellbeing that this place stays in business, so please patronise it. That is all.
    The SW is ridiculously good for food - for the price of a bottle of wine and a meal in London Pizza Express I got a One Michelin star level banquet + wine at the Sardine Factory in Looe (filming site of Beyond Paradise - currently bib gourmand - deputy head chef is a Master Chef professional Finalist and in his early 20s). SE Cornwall is one of the most neglected areas of the country relative to the rest of county but every time I've gone has been amazing.

    Ask for the pickled mussels off-menu, they always have them and they are one of the best things I have ever had, even as someone repelled by the description.
    South East Cornwall is still relatively off the beaten track. We spend a fortnight at Whitsand Bay most summers, it's completely idyllic.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,765

    Nigelb said:

    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)

    His argument is not stupid. The article says that 75% of small drones are already being lost over the battlefield, with immature EW systems to counter them. EW systems will improve.

    There is a battle going on between small drones - particularly PFV ones - and counter systems. It is not 'stupid' to suggest that the counter systems may win. Though personally I think, as often occurs, weapon and counter-weapon will evolve.

    But here's the thing: these drones are effective because they are cheap. The more robust you make them against EW or other weapons, the more expensive and larger they become. And their advantage comes from being able to be fielded in large quantities.
    Yup. The previous argument against hobby drones was that EW plus defence systems modified from active defence systems for tanks would make them ineffective, very rapidly.

    They’ve worked in Ukraine because the counter electronics and point defences require a level of tech above simple homebuild.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,090
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    eristdoof said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    9 minutes past the solstice. Start of astronomical summer 🌞🌞

    So the nights are drawing in. Wonderful.
    You have to bank the plusses that you can. On 21st December I tell myself it's all getting better for the next 6 months. Great. On 21st June I tell myself that summer is not over till at least well into September and there is 3 months to go. And then, I say, autumn is often the best of all. And then it's December again. Snowdrops...and so it goes on.
    Autumn is far from "Best of all". Drizzle, winter jackets taken out of the wardrobe to be used every day for the next 5 months, humidity jumps through the roof, central heating turned on. No more evenings outside at the pub ... and term starts again. The only savng grace is colourful leaves and it not being as cold as January!
    Pulling the curtains, lighting the fire and engaging in your own form of nesting, love it.
    You are of course one of the PBers who is also a weather geek, like me.

    It's always surprised me how many weather geeks - almost certainly a majority - love cold weather and particularly snow. They go mad for it. I've been a contributor to weather forums for a couple of decades now and my activity seems to be the inverse of most: I am most interested in summer weather, heatwaves and thunderstorms, and couldn't care less about winter.
    Yep, hands up I love the snow and cold. But there are plenty who chase the summer warmth too. I think we are pretty lucky in the U.K. to have pretty decent seasons, albeit I am sad at the influence of climate change on U.K. winters.
    I like having different seasons. Hoar frost, snow, solemn November greyness, the whiff of autumn in September, the freshness and greenest of Spring.

    It's variety that makes our climate so interesting.
    In Scotland you can have all 4 seasons in one day!
  • Options
    DopermeanDopermean Posts: 61
    I can't really be bothered about what at most is a few thousand in betting wins.
    However suspending procurement processes then awarding £bns in contracts to associates for non-compliant PPE in a national crisis, I'd like to see the culprits in prison and their assets seized as proceeds of crime.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,313
    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,697

    A left wing Twitter account is trying to attack Starmer for his role in prosecuting London rioters in 2011 in super quick time.

    https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1803523316512333978

    He says he's left-wing, but the account was created in April 2024, so would seem to have been created solely with the purpose of chatting shit about Starmer and spreading other bollocks for this election.

    Though everything they've posted seems to be information that's already in the public domain, or a matter of opinion, as opposed to being made up, so it's in the upper tier of twitter accounts despite that.

    Righties on here have pointed to the response to the riot in 2011 as a model to follow, but have otherwise been very critical of Keir Starmer. There can't be many British PMs who have come to office with as notable a track record in getting things done, though it's hard to square such decisive action with the timid figure that Starmer often cuts as Labour leader.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,775
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    I got that wrong, and I apologise.

    Your conspiracy theory is still nonsense.
    Thanks.

    In the cold light of day I could have worded it better but appreciate your comment.

    Yes it probably is nonsense but amusing nonetheless to think of the security services trying to be James Bond and ending up being Basildon Bond.
    You really need to be careful about going down this conspiracy theory route. We in Scotland have had a couple of years head start after the 2014 referendum when idiotic tales were going round that you should use a pen instead of a pencil because the "security services" will erase your Yes vote and replace it with a No vote.
    This is the stock in trade of those who want to undermine out democracy by undermining our faith in democracy. For example, Russia. They put these stories about to harm us.
    The same story about pens went about in 2016 at the EU referendum, and a few of us up here were "aye, right, we've seen this one before". Since then all kinds of crap has been said and amplified. They spread because they're interesting, but before forwarding them you should ask whether you have any evidence and whether spreading a false rumour of this nature can be harmful. If the answers are "no" and "yes", please exercise restraint and keep it to yourself. We, and our democracy, have enemies. Don't do their work for them.
    There's nothing more logically vacuous than dismissing a theory as a conspiracy theory. The implication is that it is unthinkable and historically unknown for a lot of people to do a bad thing and conspire to cover it up. As in Hur Hur, are you really claiming that a bunch of highly respected establishment figures including numerous distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar, conspired to put literally hundreds of innocent people in jail? Hur Hur.

    The triumph of the conspiracy theory theory was in the second world war, when reports of the shoah were largely discounted because Hur Hur we had this last time round with Belgian atrocities, you always get this exaggerated nonsense in time of war. Ignore.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is how stupid supports evil. If you think a thesis is wrong attack it with evidence, not with a useless heuristic about "conspiracy theories."
    Listen up, stupid fuck. The starting point is that extraordinary claims require evidence. You think there are conspiracies to steal elections in this country? Put up some evidence. Asking people to come up with evidence that something DIDN'T happen is -- and you should stop for a moment here to think about how obvious this is -- witless.

    Now, given that I also made a claim, that Russia attempts to interfere with Western politics through disinformation and that we all need to be on guard for this, it's only fair I direct you to some evidence for that.

    USA:
    https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-committee-releases-bipartisan-report-russia’s-use-social-media

    UK:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exposes-attempted-russian-cyber-interference-in-politics-and-democratic-processes

    Germany:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/26/germany-unearths-pro-russia-disinformation-campaign-on-x

    These a metric fucktonne of this stuff if you want to gorge yourself silly.

    Now, go back and think about the claims that started this... MI5 or whoever fiddled some vote here. Where's the evidence? Oh, you don't have any? THAT is why it's a conspiracy theory. Moron.
    Lab Leak was dismissed - by all of "the science", including the Lancet, in a now provably fraudulent letter - as "a racist conspiracy theory". As such we were literally banned from talking about it for a year, even as a concept, on Twitter and Facebook - largely at the behest of the Biden administration, to an extent where it actually troubled Nick Clegg

    Now it turns out Lab Leak is almost certainly true
    https://www.factcheck.org/2023/06/scicheck-no-bombshell-on-covid-19-origins-u-s-intelligence-rebuts-claims-about-sick-lab-workers/
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    eekeek Posts: 26,163

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,541

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    It's morally reprehensible for this sort of thing to be happening without the Supreme Court also ruling that we shouldn't be allowed to buy cars etc.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,218
    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    People like @Luckyguy1983 clearly have no understanding of our legal system whatsoever. This is how it has ALWAYS worked.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,163
    Dopermean said:

    I can't really be bothered about what at most is a few thousand in betting wins.
    However suspending procurement processes then awarding £bns in contracts to associates for non-compliant PPE in a national crisis, I'd like to see the culprits in prison and their assets seized as proceeds of crime.

    I can be very bothered about a few thousand in betting wins - because it's that type of behaviour that explains everything else.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,541
    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    If it's unexpected, what can the politicians do?
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,623

    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    People like @Luckyguy1983 clearly have no understanding of our legal system whatsoever. This is how it has ALWAYS worked.
    You make a good case for how the law might work.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,623
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    If it's unexpected, what can the politicians do?
    1. Blame judges, especially if they can foreign ones
    2. Alternatively, legislate (with clarity and thought).
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,218
    For what it’s worth, this result was not entirely unexpected to lawyers.

    Primary legislation to “fix it” (if you think it’s broken). Luckily Keir Starmer being a lawyer will understand this.

    From a purely professional perspective most of the laws drafted in the last 10 years or so have been grade A dogshit so I am hoping that improves.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,313
    tlg86 said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    It's morally reprehensible for this sort of thing to be happening without the Supreme Court also ruling that we shouldn't be allowed to buy cars etc.
    It didn't take into account the additional emissions generated by the imported oil and gas the well's produce would have displaced either.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,541
    Did the Supreme Court account for the extra CO2 emitted because of the extra oil that will have to be imported if they stopped this development?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,218
    tlg86 said:

    Did the Supreme Court account for the extra CO2 emitted because of the extra oil that will have to be imported if they stopped this development?

    No because the case wasn’t about that. It was about the considerations Surrey County Council, as a public authority, should have had when deciding a PLANNING PERMISSION application.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,313

    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    People like @Luckyguy1983 clearly have no understanding of our legal system whatsoever. This is how it has ALWAYS worked.
    Whether a new oil well can proceed legally is a matter for parliament and the appropriate local authorities. It is a complete abuse of "supreme court" powers to intervene on these spurious grounds, effectively to prevent any new oil wells being built in this country - economical self-harm which is for elected parliamentarians to inflict if they so wish, because they can be de-elected again. It's not for an appointed body to stretch its remit and make decisions like this.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,218

    tlg86 said:

    Did the Supreme Court account for the extra CO2 emitted because of the extra oil that will have to be imported if they stopped this development?

    No because the case wasn’t about that. It was about the considerations Surrey County Council, as a public authority, should have had when deciding a PLANNING PERMISSION application.
    This comment should have been in response to the car comment.

    I would be surprised if the lawyers didn’t advance that argument so it was probably considered.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,406

    Andy_JS said:

    To all those who are reluctantly voting Conservative because of Farage and his views on immigration.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803734430206284139?t=hRDJapCDsBRUEQ-8BnU7JQ&s=19

    I'm sorry, this has to be a parody account. It cannot be genuine.
    That is exactly what I thought when I saw it and rooted around a bit before I posted to check that it is a Genuine Tory Video.

    5.6 million views so far.

    (The video is of someone raking a beach and laying a red carpet down to the sea with the words "Welcome" written in the sand with a subtitle saying "Labours approach to Illegal immigration"

    Rather amusing that pompous centrist Tories are voting Tory instead of Libdem to keep Reform out when their own party is putting out stuff like this).
    Eh?

    The pompous centrist Tories buggered off to Lib and Lab ages ago, in part because of stuff like this.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,218
    edited June 21

    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    People like @Luckyguy1983 clearly have no understanding of our legal system whatsoever. This is how it has ALWAYS worked.
    Whether a new oil well can proceed legally is a matter for parliament and the appropriate local authorities. It is a complete abuse of "supreme court" powers to intervene on these spurious grounds, effectively to prevent any new oil wells being built in this country - economical self-harm which is for elected parliamentarians to inflict if they so wish, because they can be de-elected again. It's not for an appointed body to stretch its remit and make decisions like this.
    Mate you haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about. Judicial review of public authority decisions has always been part of our constitution. Blame politicians for drafting shit laws. It is politicians which set out the procedural and powers frameworks that public authorities are required to follow. Surrey CC did not clearly.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,738

    Nigelb said:

    Is the UK military as stupid as this ?

    Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says/

    (No, they really won't.)

    His argument is not stupid. The article says that 75% of small drones are already being lost over the battlefield, with immature EW systems to counter them. EW systems will improve.

    There is a battle going on between small drones - particularly PFV ones - and counter systems. It is not 'stupid' to suggest that the counter systems may win. Though personally I think, as often occurs, weapon and counter-weapon will evolve.

    But here's the thing: these drones are effective because they are cheap. The more robust you make them against EW or other weapons, the more expensive and larger they become. And their advantage comes from being able to be fielded in large quantities.
    His argument is stupid.

    First, drones are cheap and exisndabke. In the case of FPV attack drones, deliberately so. Even with a 90% attrition rates they'd be more cost effective e than any other battlefield weapon.

    Second, the rare of development is far faster than that of systems to counter them. In an evolutionary arms rave, they have an advantage.

    The general quoted in the story is attached to his armour program. Which is orders of magnitude more expensive, and has product cycles measured in decades rather than months.

    I hope our military better absorbs the lessons from Ukraine.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,324

    eek said:

    Absolutely disgusting "Supreme Court" judgement means a completely legal oil well project in Surrey has had its licence rescinded because it didn't 'take into account' the emissions that would result from consumers burning the product.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-surrey-oil-judgment-undermines-our-democracy/

    This appointed court is not a part of our constitution; it has no legitimacy, and it is effectively making up law. It needs to be binned.

    Um no, it interprets the current law and generates a result.

    The new Labour Government can change the law and fix the issue all the Supreme Court has done is combine the law as it currently is and come to (an admittedly unexpected) conclusion..
    People like @Luckyguy1983 clearly have no understanding of our legal system whatsoever. This is how it has ALWAYS worked.
    Whether a new oil well can proceed legally is a matter for parliament and the appropriate local authorities. It is a complete abuse of "supreme court" powers to intervene on these spurious grounds, effectively to prevent any new oil wells being built in this country - economical self-harm which is for elected parliamentarians to inflict if they so wish, because they can be de-elected again. It's not for an appointed body to stretch its remit and make decisions like this.
    They can intervene if the process was not followed properly. That’s a fundamental principle of the rule of law.
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