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Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    Wasn't Howard stuffed by Widdy's 'Something of the night' barb?
    He still would have beaten Ken Clarke who Widdy backed then
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287

    The shadow health secretary has said he would buy up private beds for the NHS, in defiance of objections from “middle-class Lefties”. Wes Streeting said a Labour government would get the NHS to buy thousands of beds from care homes, to “unblock” a failing health and care system, while expanding use of private hospitals for state-funded operations.

    Mr Streeting said there was “nothing Left-wing” about leaving working class patients to lie in pain because of “middle class Lefty” objections to the use of the private sector.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/wes-streeting-election-nhs-labour-private-care-beds/

    (narrator: it's cheaper for the NHS to build and run and staff its own hospitals instead of subcontracting to the private sector)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    carnforth said:

    See who's registering to vote in (almost) real time:

    https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performance

    Interesting, so that's over a million registrations in the past week, 57% of which are under for 35yo, 94% are for under 65s.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    https://x.com/sundersays/status/1803170037273907553

    This is the second constituency poll of the campaign, both for The Economist. Both the Hartlepool and the Gillingham constituency polls suggest the polls and MRPs are being significantly too generous to the Conservatives.

    Fascinating! It really does seem like there's a serious chance of the Tories ending up with less than 100 seats.

    I've still not traded out any of my 50-99 seats bet on bf, and suspect that I'll now stick with it - if it comes off, it'll be my second-most successful bet ever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    Are we all Nazis?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Based on a tweet from @JamesDAustin about the Gillingham and Rainham VI Constituency Poll for The Economist.

    Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional)

    LAB: 55% (+27)
    CON: 23% (-39)
    REF: 15% (+15)
    LDEM: 5% (=)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    My god. Worth noting this has a swing way beyond anything that the MRPs are picking up.





    Looking at @Samfr database of projections this has Labour outperforming the most bullish MRP by 11% and Tories under by 6%.

    Similar to Hartlepool and way outside MoE. Just one poll but
    ...

    Today's MRP from Ipsos/MORI has it Lab 41% to Con 32% in Gillingham and Rainham.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257

    Are we all Nazis?

    Are we the baddies?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,632
    maxh said:

    Is my sarcasm detector broken or something?
    I couldn't possibly comment. :smile:
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    DougSeal said:

    I don’t think their proposals to effectively abolish the right to paid holiday and maternity leave, amongst the other bonfire of employment right, are that popular. Labour would be all over that.
    Where is this in their manifesto, as in their 'contract with Britain'? I am interested.
    Even if this is true, isn't what they are suggesting pretty similar to the US?
    I understand that people dislike Farage and Lee Anderson, but it feels like they project things on to this party that are not supported by evidence.
    As I said before, their actual manifesto just seems to be mainstream conservative circa 2024.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    rcs1000 said:
    The Hajj may become ecologically unsustainable, and indeed unfeasible. That will be a major blow to one of the great pillars of one of humanity's most important religions: without which the world would be so hugely different

    It is almost too hard to bear. I am actually crying, here in my chair, and I only emotionally getting by with a decent Rioja to numb the pain. It must be even worse for Muslims
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240

    Did you get a good reaction?
    Was it a catalyst to a journalistic career?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    dixiedean said:

    My favourite Tom Tugendhat fact is that he's an anagram of mutated thong.

    Not as good as Neil Warnock's anagram.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,385

    Noam Chomsky has died.

    He was a piece of shit.

    I mean, his academic work is interesting and all. But you his political views were lazy, and his reflexiveness anti-Americanism resulted in him cozying up to the most revolting of dictators.

    For the record, I thought Henry Kissinger was a piece of shit too.
  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    TimS said:

    Is he actually dead? Suggestions he’s alive and well.

    His genocide denials were indeed rather Irving-esque. Cambodia, FFS.
    I don't know the ins and outs. Perhaps he did say outrageous things - things I couldn't defend. But in a lifetime of opposition to state violence, it's not surprising that he put the backs up of some powerful people. Regarding Cambodia he said his comments never minimised atrocities. He claims he criticised how media and political bodies used the reporting of events to serve their interests. Perhaps you know more.

    I think he may not have died, but to crow at the announcement of the death of an old man seems awful to me!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Are we all Nazis?

    I'm not but I am afraid you are
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    So it's Mr P versus Lord Ashcroft nostalgia constituency polling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,385
    JamesF said:

    I don't know the ins and outs. Perhaps he did say outrageous things - things I couldn't defend. But in a lifetime of opposition to state violence, it's not surprising that he put the backs up of some powerful people. Regarding Cambodia he said his comments never minimised atrocities. He claims he criticised how media and political bodies used the reporting of events to serve their interests. Perhaps you know more.

    I think he may not have died, but to crow at the announcement of the death of an old man seems awful to me!
    He was a total fucking piece of shit, who simply supported anyone who was in conflict with the US.

    The world is a better place without him, and there are very few people I would say that about.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    @Casino_Royale is right, isn't he?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/starmer-leaves-door-open-to-tax-rises-for-millions/

    During a radio interview on Tuesday, Sir Keir was asked what he meant by working people.

    “People who earn their living, rely on our [public] services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble,” he told LBC.

    “So the sort of people I’m meeting pretty well every day now. It’s quite a big group because these days there are many people obviously not so well off.”

    Two-thirds of working-age households have savings of more than £1,000 - considered the minimum “rainy day” fund - according to the Resolution Foundation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Foxy said:

    Was it a catalyst to a journalistic career?
    Aye, that's the litmus test.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    rcs1000 said:

    He was a piece of shit.

    I mean, his academic work is interesting and all. But you his political views were lazy, and his reflexiveness anti-Americanism resulted in him cozying up to the most revolting of dictators.

    For the record, I thought Henry Kissinger was a piece of shit too.
    I can't believe he only died 6 months ago.
  • Daily Mail is bollocks lol. What is happening to the media
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    rcs1000 said:

    He was a piece of shit.

    I mean, his academic work is interesting and all. But you his political views were lazy, and his reflexiveness anti-Americanism resulted in him cozying up to the most revolting of dictators.

    For the record, I thought Henry Kissinger was a piece of shit too.
    Noam lives again, his wife has said he is not dead after all!
    https://www.timesnownews.com/world/what-happened-to-noam-chomsky-reports-of-american-professorsdeathfalse-says-wife-valeria-wasserman-article-111093969
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240

    Daily Mail is bollocks lol. What is happening to the media

    Some of us noticed a while ago.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,677

    Did you get a good reaction?
    Alas there wasn't a prize, just the glory of victory.

    I did however come away with a pen when our team won at an IChemE quiz night.

    I'm too old for such hedonism these days.
  • Are we all Nazis?

    I remember some time ago you called me out for mental health issues when I started posting like this. I am now worried about your welfare. Hope you can get some help.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Foxy said:

    Some of us noticed a while ago.
    1935?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,597
    tlg86 said:

    @Casino_Royale is right, isn't he?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/starmer-leaves-door-open-to-tax-rises-for-millions/

    During a radio interview on Tuesday, Sir Keir was asked what he meant by working people.

    “People who earn their living, rely on our [public] services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble,” he told LBC.

    “So the sort of people I’m meeting pretty well every day now. It’s quite a big group because these days there are many people obviously not so well off.”

    Two-thirds of working-age households have savings of more than £1,000 - considered the minimum “rainy day” fund - according to the Resolution Foundation.

    Glaswegians and Mancunians need more than £1,000, as we have more rainy days.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    JamesF said:

    I don't know the ins and outs. Perhaps he did say outrageous things - things I couldn't defend. But in a lifetime of opposition to state violence, it's not surprising that he put the backs up of some powerful people. Regarding Cambodia he said his comments never minimised atrocities. He claims he criticised how media and political bodies used the reporting of events to serve their interests. Perhaps you know more.

    I think he may not have died, but to crow at the announcement of the death of an old man seems awful to me!
    I’m not sure he has died - seem to be suggestions his wife has been in touch saying he’s alive and well.

    I was a bit of a fan, but had a moment of disillusionment at a talk he gave on the eve of the Iraq war at Harvard (I was visiting a friend there). He gave Iraq about 10 minutes and then started banging on about Serbia. He really did seem to be convinced that Milosevic was a victim of Western propaganda and the Serbs were just courageously defending themselves.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    AlsoLei said:

    Fascinating! It really does seem like there's a serious chance of the Tories ending up with less than 100 seats.

    I've still not traded out any of my 50-99 seats bet on bf, and suspect that I'll now stick with it - if it comes off, it'll be my second-most successful bet ever.
    What times are these.

    I was on less than 49 seats at 26.

    Cashed out a bit now one can lay that for 6.4.


    6.4!!! The most successful party in democracy is layable at 6 for seats less than 49!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    tlg86 said:

    @Casino_Royale is right, isn't he?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/starmer-leaves-door-open-to-tax-rises-for-millions/

    During a radio interview on Tuesday, Sir Keir was asked what he meant by working people.

    “People who earn their living, rely on our [public] services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble,” he told LBC.

    “So the sort of people I’m meeting pretty well every day now. It’s quite a big group because these days there are many people obviously not so well off.”

    Two-thirds of working-age households have savings of more than £1,000 - considered the minimum “rainy day” fund - according to the Resolution Foundation.

    I'm often right. But, not enough people want to hear it in the next 2 weeks, and time is running out.

    Think very carefully how you mark your ballot. Because, after that, you're stuck with it for a full 5 years.

    Do you want to look yourself in the mirror that whole time knowing you voted for it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    HYUFD said:

    Noam lives again, his wife has said he is not dead after all!
    https://www.timesnownews.com/world/what-happened-to-noam-chomsky-reports-of-american-professorsdeathfalse-says-wife-valeria-wasserman-article-111093969
    Reports of his death have been greatly exaggerated?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Daily Mail is bollocks lol. What is happening to the media

    Mods.
    Can we pin this post for the past 100+ years?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    Daily Mail is bollocks lol. What is happening to the media

    You've only just noticed?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    I remember some time ago you called me out for mental health issues when I started posting like this. I am now worried about your welfare. Hope you can get some help.
    He's joking. It's a sign of mental health. You're welcome
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933

    What times are these.

    I was on less than 49 seats at 26.

    Cashed out a bit now one can lay that for 6.4.


    6.4!!! The most successful party in democracy is layable at 6 for seats less than 49!!!
    I still think they’ll end up at or above 200.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    edited June 2024
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to add: if you move your taxable residence away from the UK to avoid paying taxes, no fucking way should you be allowed to vote.
    Do you mean that you would have no voters who are not tax-resident in the UK, or would you introduce some sort of test to judge whether people had moved abroad for other reasons?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307

    I won a caption competition in The Chemical Engineer.
    Hey girls, hey boys,
    Superstar DJ's,
    Here we go!
  • Leon said:

    He's joking. It's a sign of mental health. You're welcome
    I pretended I was joking too but actually I wasn't. Casino's recent posts are a pattern of behaviour and I am concerned. I do hope he can get help.

    I hope you can too, you're clearly in need of a friend. But that won't be me.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to add: if you move your taxable residence away from the UK to avoid paying taxes, no fucking way should you be allowed to vote.
    If you want to remain a British citizen you should pay British taxes wherever you live. I'll generously allow you to offset any local taxes you pay.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    Are we human, or are we dancer?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    I'm often right. But, not enough people want to hear it in the next 2 weeks, and time is running out.

    Think very carefully how you mark your ballot. Because, after that, you're stuck with it for a full 5 years.

    Do you want to look yourself in the mirror that whole time knowing you voted for it?
    Don't worry, I and the rest of my close family are voting Tory, not that it will do much good in Woking.

    I'm curious as to what Labour have planned. If they scrap ISAs or something, then fine, I don't like it, but whatever. If they decide to help themselves to savings I already have, then that's theft.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307

    I pretended I was joking too but actually I wasn't. Casino's recent posts are a pattern of behaviour and I am concerned. I do hope he can get help.

    I hope you can too, you're clearly in need of a friend. But that won't be me.
    I'm joking mate. @Leon is right.

    Gallows humour.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to add: if you move your taxable residence away from the UK to avoid paying taxes, no fucking way should you be allowed to vote.
    Ratcliffe is only after billions of support for regeneration of the Old Trafford industrial area and a new multi billion pound home for Manchester United to compete with Wembley '

    He already has has a well publicised meeting with Burnham and Starmer so absolutely no surprise what he is after
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Is that Rochdale's seat?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,632
    edited June 2024
    Leon said:

    The Hajj may become ecologically unsustainable, and indeed unfeasible. That will be a major blow to one of the great pillars of one of humanity's most important religions: without which the world would be so hugely different

    It is almost too hard to bear. I am actually crying, here in my chair, and I only emotionally getting by with a decent Rioja to numb the pain. It must be even worse for Muslims
    I don't understand that fairly sentimental (to me) reaction. There's human sympathy of course, but it is hardly unusual as a number of pilgrims to die for various reasons during Hajj. Hundreds being killed is fairly routine. 100+ killed has happened on a large number of occasions in the last several decades.

    In orthodox Islam it will be viewed as kismet, the WIll of Allah, and a pass straight to heaven. That's an Islamic attitude.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incidents_during_the_Hajj
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    I pretended I was joking too but actually I wasn't. Casino's recent posts are a pattern of behaviour and I am concerned. I do hope he can get help.

    I hope you can too, you're clearly in need of a friend. But that won't be me.
    I think we are agreed
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,984

    I'm often right. But, not enough people want to hear it in the next 2 weeks, and time is running out.

    Think very carefully how you mark your ballot. Because, after that, you're stuck with it for a full 5 years.

    Do you want to look yourself in the mirror that whole time knowing you voted for it?
    I think everyone will be proud of voting to end the shitshow of the last 5 years.
  • I'm joking mate. @Leon is right.

    Gallows humour.
    You say you are just like I did. But I think based on your comments over many days there's something deeper afoot. I really hope like me you have a supportive network around you that can help. Best wishes.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 587
    edited June 2024
    say we get a Seat Total like:

    CON 70
    LIB DEM 60
    SNP 20
    REFUK 3

    Could the Lib Dems and SNP agree an 'Opposition Pact' to marginalise the Tories and Reform?

    If you're Ed Davey, perhaps the chance for much greater prominence on the national stage as HM Official Opposition, outweighs any negatives of the association with the SNP. You can say "We want to effectively hold Labour to account, despite our disagreements on policy..." or something.

    OTOH the SNP may demand prominent shadow cabinet positions from it. Or perhaps they'd be satisfied to have relatively few, if they think it could advance their cause somehow to just be in the official opposition.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    Is that Rochdale's seat?
    Yes
  • Leon said:

    I think we are agreed
    I never know what you're going on about so there is nothing to agree about. I am done talking to you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    tlg86 said:

    Don't worry, I and the rest of my close family are voting Tory, not that it will do much good in Woking.

    I'm curious as to what Labour have planned. If they scrap ISAs or something, then fine, I don't like it, but whatever. If they decide to help themselves to savings I already have, then that's theft.
    Who knows what they have in store?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Leon said:

    I think we are agreed
    Is this the bit where you now both kiss?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330

    say we get a Seat Total like:

    CON 70
    LIB DEM 60
    SNP 20
    REFUK 3

    Could the Lib Dems and SNP agree an 'Opposition Pact' to marginalise the Tories and Reform?

    If you're Ed Davey, I assume the chance for much greater prominence on the national stage, outweighs any negatives of the association with the SNP. You can say "We want to effectively hold Labour to account, despite our disagreements on policy..." or something.

    SNP too pro EU for the LDs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307

    You say you are just like I did. But I think based on your comments over many days there's something deeper afoot. I really hope like me you have a supportive network around you that can help. Best wishes.
    Err, OK mate.

    Anyway. Need to get an early night. School day tomorrow.
  • Farooq said:

    Somewhere in @RochdalePioneers's house is a monkey's paw with two curled fingers.
    I would vote Lib Dem in that seat. The Tories and SNP are as bad as each other.
  • Err, OK mate.

    Anyway. Need to get an early night. School day tomorrow.
    It's hard to accept, I do know that. But hope you can. Good luck.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Are we human, or are we dancer?

    Keep it in your mind
    Do not forget
    That it is not he or she or them or it
    That you belong to.
  • dixiedean said:

    Mods.
    Can we pin this post for the past 100+ years?
    Every post I make is pinnable. I am the best poster here by a country mile.

    Also the most modest, forget the tripe that @TSE posts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,632

    If you want to remain a British citizen you should pay British taxes wherever you live. I'll generously allow you to offset any local taxes you pay.
    Can we palm Boris off on the Yanks?
  • biggles said:

    Is this the bit where you now both kiss?
    Leon is a poster I actively avoid unless he forces his way into conversations. I wish I could avoid him at all costs but sadly I make do where I can.

    The answer is no btw. He lost my respect a long time ago back when he was Sean.
  • MattW said:

    Can we palm Boris off on the Yanks?
    Oh please.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,697
    MattW said:

    Can we palm Boris off on the Yanks?
    He gave up US citizenship to avoid cap gains on a London house he was selling, IIRC.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    tlg86 said:

    Don't worry, I and the rest of my close family are voting Tory, not that it will do much good in Woking.

    I'm curious as to what Labour have planned. If they scrap ISAs or something, then fine, I don't like it, but whatever. If they decide to help themselves to savings I already have, then that's theft.
    Yes and if they decide to sacrifice your first-born that's murder. But neither are happening of course.

    Still if you're desperate to find reasons to vote for this stunningly incompetent excuse for a government, this is the sort of fiction that will have to serve, I guess.
  • I think unlike in 2019, you really can look yourself in the mirror and proudly vote for Labour.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Say one thing about Boris.
    He isn't particularly known for ever being palmed off.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530

    SNP too pro EU for the LDs.
    'Opposition Pact' ??


    There's no such thing constitutionally I think?

    The Cons would be Opposition on those numbers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,632
    edited June 2024
    carnforth said:

    He gave up US citizenship to avoid cap gains on a London house he was selling, IIRC.
    That would be a classic Boris faceplant. As per usual it looks like he believed his own BS.

    He paid it, according to reporting.

    https://www.artiopartners.com/renounce/boris-johnson-pays-irs-tax-bill/

    Unless there is another tax bill he dodged.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,697

    I would vote Lib Dem in that seat. The Tories and SNP are as bad as each other.
    When are ballot papers printed? If a candidate is disowned today, does their Party name appear?
  • Boris Johnson is no longer expected to join Tory election campaign trail because party is facing decimation in the red wall seats he won in 2019 and there are fears he will not appeal to voters in the south

    Johnson is instead expected to go on his second summer holiday within the next few days and is not due back in the UK until July 3

    Sunak did not tell Johnson that he was planning a snap election and has not spoken to him for the duration of the campaign

    Allies of Sunak are said to be concerned that Johnson could prove to be a distraction because of the ‘media circus’ that would surround him if he spent a day on the campaign trail

    Tory strategist: ‘What’s the point of sending him to the red wall when the focus of the campaign is to defend 150 seats in the south?

    ‘This is not a campaign that is looking to win seats in the red wall. This is a fight for survival. If you look at the seats we’re targeting they don’t have Boris Johnson supporters’

    In the past ten days the prime minister has spent his time in seats with an average Conservative majority of 15,000, up from 10,000 in the first two weeks of the campaign

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1803183714698141762

    Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited June 2024

    'Opposition Pact' ??


    There's no such thing constitutionally I think?

    The Cons would be Opposition on those numbers.
    Yes until the Farage reverse takeover, at which point 7 or 8 One-nation Tories defect to the LDs and hey presto Davey becomes LOTO.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,111
    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive:

    Boris Johnson is no longer expected to join Tory election campaign trail because party is facing decimation in the red wall seats he won in 2019 and there are fears he will not appeal to voters in the south

    Johnson is instead expected to go on his second summer holiday within the next few days and is not due back in the UK until July 3

    Sunak did not tell Johnson that he was planning a snap election and has not spoken to him for the duration of the campaign

    Allies of Sunak are said to be concerned that Johnson could prove to be a distraction because of the ‘media circus’ that would surround him if he spent a day on the campaign trail

    Tory strategist: ‘What’s the point of sending him to the red wall when the focus of the campaign is to defend 150 seats in the south?

    ‘This is not a campaign that is looking to win seats in the red wall. This is a fight for survival. If you look at the seats we’re targeting they don’t have Boris Johnson supporters’

    In the past ten days the prime minister has spent his time in seats with an average Conservative majority of 15,000, up from 10,000 in the first two weeks of the campaign
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 587
    edited June 2024

    'Opposition Pact' ??


    There's no such thing constitutionally I think?

    The Cons would be Opposition on those numbers.
    I've seen conflicting things online about whether 3rd and 4th parties can sit together and be the official opposition - I think ultimately it's at the speaker's discretion but can't be sure
  • If Sunak is spending his time in seats with majorities of 15,000 that implies that the private polling is as bad as the worst of the public polling right?

    Are the Tories now as unpopular as Labour in 2019? Really?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited June 2024

    'Opposition Pact' ??


    There's no such thing constitutionally I think?

    The Cons would be Opposition on those numbers.
    Probably a matter of convention, but it's hard to see for what reason there would be a departure.

    The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually removed any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’; it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office.
    https://erskinemay.parliament.uk/section/5986/the-official-opposition
  • Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive:

    Boris Johnson is no longer expected to join Tory election campaign trail because party is facing decimation in the red wall seats he won in 2019 and there are fears he will not appeal to voters in the south

    Johnson is instead expected to go on his second summer holiday within the next few days and is not due back in the UK until July 3

    Sunak did not tell Johnson that he was planning a snap election and has not spoken to him for the duration of the campaign

    Allies of Sunak are said to be concerned that Johnson could prove to be a distraction because of the ‘media circus’ that would surround him if he spent a day on the campaign trail

    Tory strategist: ‘What’s the point of sending him to the red wall when the focus of the campaign is to defend 150 seats in the south?

    ‘This is not a campaign that is looking to win seats in the red wall. This is a fight for survival. If you look at the seats we’re targeting they don’t have Boris Johnson supporters’

    In the past ten days the prime minister has spent his time in seats with an average Conservative majority of 15,000, up from 10,000 in the first two weeks of the campaign

    Thanks Scott and Paste. You are pointless.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 587
    edited June 2024
    New Market on BF Exchange gone up

    UK - Next General Election - Liberal Democrats U/O 59.5 Seats

    Odds don't seem great however - currently 1.83 for over 59.5 seats. The 'Most Seats Without Labour' for the Lib Dems is 4.7 - if they get 60+ seats they'll have quite a good chance of coming 2nd.
  • kle4 said:

    Much worse.
    Are they really though? I mean, in 2019 Labour had destroyed itself, was led by a historically unpopular leader and was being racist. Are the Tories really as bad as that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550

    Based on a tweet from @JamesDAustin about the Gillingham and Rainham VI Constituency Poll for The Economist.

    Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional)

    LAB: 55% (+27)
    CON: 23% (-39)
    REF: 15% (+15)
    LDEM: 5% (=)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    My god. Worth noting this has a swing way beyond anything that the MRPs are picking up.





    Looking at @Samfr database of projections this has Labour outperforming the most bullish MRP by 11% and Tories under by 6%.

    Similar to Hartlepool and way outside MoE. Just one poll but
    ...

    Reform on either 8% or 25%?

    Point and LOL at the pollsters...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    carnforth said:

    When are ballot papers printed? If a candidate is disowned today, does their Party name appear?
    Same as the (ironically) Rochdale by election where Lab dropped their candidate and let Galloway in.

    'Since the deadline for candidates has passed, Mr Brown will now run as an independent and Labour will not formally be standing anyone in the seat.'
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,697
    Farooq said:

    Yes, nominations can't be changed now. He'll appear with the rose symbol and the Labour or Cooperative Party name.
    I wonder what local "cut through" is of such a disowning then. Could affect turnout or voting choice or not much at all.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,984
    carnforth said:

    When are ballot papers printed? If a candidate is disowned today, does their Party name appear?
    Yes, name and party will be as in the SOPN. Like in the Rochdale by-election.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,697

    Ignore Horse Scott, I for one like the twitter posts, saves me the bother of hooking into twitter.

    (One request though, please post the tweet link each time.)
    Does anyone know how to scott & paste the tweet text and URL at the same time? Asking for a friend...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    Farooq said:

    Til early August when 15 of them have joined Farage's Nazis party
    Hmm. interesting. Lose their short money for starters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566

    Are they really though? I mean, in 2019 Labour had destroyed itself, was led by a historically unpopular leader and was being racist. Are the Tories really as bad as that?
    Their unpopularity is much worse, because unlike Labour in 2019 the Tories have also lost a substantial portion of their previously tribal vote.

    Their competence may also be worse at this point, though Sunak would still be a better pick than Corbyn.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    carnforth said:

    Does anyone know how to scott & paste the tweet text and URL at the same time? Asking for a friend...
    Apple supports a 3rd party app called iClip. I've been in IT for decades and it is the single most productive tool I have come across.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,644
    biggles said:

    For the sake of my mental health, please can we not associate Boris with “palm off” and “yank”?
    If we do, does that count as a happy finish?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited June 2024
    kle4 said:

    It's like the other parties are actively attempting to help the SNP take that seat by cocking up as much as possible.

    Or Rochdale really will end up winning by default, after the SNP also ditch their candidate or they get embroiled in a row.
    [on reflection, deleted in fairness as I can't read the whole P&J story and nobody else covers it yet]
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,697

    Apple supports a 3rd party app called iClip. I've been in IT for decades and it is the single most productive tool I have come across.

    Thanks. I'll look it up.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,918
    edited June 2024

    Ratcliffe is only after billions of support for regeneration of the Old Trafford industrial area and a new multi billion pound home for Manchester United to compete with Wembley '

    He already has has a well publicised meeting with Burnham and Starmer so absolutely no surprise what he is after
    You don't become a gazillionaire by backing losers.

    The media don't ask the right questions of these celebrity 'switchers'.
  • Farooq said:

    Do tell us when another "Horse Poll" is ready

    Absolutely can, I do know how much you enjoy them.

    Talking of, have you put an election prediction down?
This discussion has been closed.