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Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    Chameleon said:

    And the world is a far better place than it was a few hours ago.
    Nasty
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    The shadow health secretary has said he would buy up private beds for the NHS, in defiance of objections from “middle-class Lefties”. Wes Streeting said a Labour government would get the NHS to buy thousands of beds from care homes, to “unblock” a failing health and care system, while expanding use of private hospitals for state-funded operations.

    Mr Streeting said there was “nothing Left-wing” about leaving working class patients to lie in pain because of “middle class Lefty” objections to the use of the private sector.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/wes-streeting-election-nhs-labour-private-care-beds/

    He's an interesting politician at times.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2024

    There was debate on that long before LLMs.
    Sure, but it really kicking off these days.
  • Ghedebrav said:

    Yes. Commentary is one of those jobs where making it look easy is part of the job, but it is not actually easy. So finding good ones is tricky and you can understand why broadcasters are reluctant to twist rather than stick. But Murphy has baseline bloke-in-pub level insight; adds nothing and frequently just wrong.
    He is utterly clueless and also has a voice that would have the mice hurling themselves onto the traps.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950

    Putting aside Chomsky politics, his academic work is really interesting. But with LLMs, there is real debate in academic circles if actually it was all wrong.

    Indeed. But he's still a giant in the field of linguistics. Even if he was almost entirely wrong. He pushed the study forward in a similar way to Freud in Psychiatry. By producing a revolutionary theory which fit with available evidence at the time.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    Andy_JS said:

    Hague's main slogan in 2001 was "Save The Pound".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/27/conservatives.uk
    He lost of course, which is why we're all using the Euro now.

    Errrr....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed. But he's still a giant in the field of linguistics. Even if he was almost entirely wrong. He pushed the study forward in a similar way to Freud in Psychiatry. By producing a revolutionary theory which fit with available evidence at the time.
    How was he wrong in hindsight?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Leon in May: “The young really ARE stupider, and here we see that evidenced. Part of this can be blamed on migration from less cognitively blessed areas of the world, and of course by the multiple impacts of Covid and lockdown - but not all of it”

    That’s not the first time he’s made clear his out-and-out racism, his view that different human “races” have very different genetic traits, including that affect intelligence.
    Is it a Hitlerite rumour that some parts of the world have less impressive education systems than others? How is that Nazi?

    if you import people from Denmark or Singapore there's a good chance they are highly educated and have degrees. Somalia or Peru, less so
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    The shadow health secretary has said he would buy up private beds for the NHS, in defiance of objections from “middle-class Lefties”. Wes Streeting said a Labour government would get the NHS to buy thousands of beds from care homes, to “unblock” a failing health and care system, while expanding use of private hospitals for state-funded operations.

    Mr Streeting said there was “nothing Left-wing” about leaving working class patients to lie in pain because of “middle class Lefty” objections to the use of the private sector.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/wes-streeting-election-nhs-labour-private-care-beds/

    Not a bad scheme to unblock acute care.

    At the end of covid there was a scheme where the health authority paid for the first 4 weeks of Social Care, meaning that the patient would have that time to make more long term arrangements. I don't know why it ended, it was great value.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    kle4 said:

    He's an interesting politician at times.
    I don't think the Labour top team has that much talent (certainly far below 1997), but so far he seems to be one of the better ones. Obviously proof is in the pudding.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,847

    I'm chuckling at the idea that Carrie Symonds was some leftie.

    She was the former Director of Communications for the Tory Party and also a SPAD to a few Tory cabinet ministers.
    That makes her not a lefty how exactly?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2024
    kle4 said:

    He believes in setting out his stall early - I think he mentioned he'd stand if Boris went, before it happened.
    Well in this case the timing is all wrong and he's looking 1. arrogant in assuming he's still going to be around in the next Parliament and 2. self-indulgent.

    Even now, after 3 PM's, 6 Chancellors, 12 home secretaries and facing the worst defeat in 200 years there are still Tory politicians that think it's all about them. It's inexplicable honestly. 🤷‍♂️
  • JFNJFN Posts: 25

    Sure, but everything points to it being true that voters can stay at home or vote LD/Green/SNP/Reform without risking the landslide.

    I don’t know a single Labour or anti-Tory tactical voter who thinks the Labour win is in the bag. We are all terrified that the Tories will do what they’ve always done and spin something/creep a win.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Leon said:

    You said I am "extremely rightwing". I'm sorry, but there is no way that means anything other than "a Nazi" or "basically a Nazi" in the ears and eyes of any normal person. And yet you cannot back it up because it is bollocks. You are a reduced person. You are not even on my C list

    No, seriously, ths is utter shite. You should resile or apologise, you are too feeble to do either
    He didn’t call you a Nazi. He called you extremely right wing. You have expressed support for Reform which is, based on their employment law manifesto, which I’ve read for obvious reasons, a very very right wing organisation. It’s not defamatory when it can be described as fair comment. And the ordinary and natural meaning of “extremely right wing” is not Nazi. It could equally apply to a number of Tory MPs and the immediate past President of the United States.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Foxy said:

    Not a bad scheme to unblock acute care.

    At the end of covid there was a scheme where the health authority paid for the first 4 weeks of Social Care, meaning that the patient would have that time to make more long term arrangements. I don't know why it ended, it was great value.
    A relation got a council funded 6 week assessment period earlier in the year. Is that not standard? It seemed sensible. Maybe postcode lottery stuff.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Hague's main slogan in 2001 was "Save The Pound".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/27/conservatives.uk
    I thought it was "Shave the Hound"? May be misremembering there.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 982

    Not going to be winning any DEI awards.
    I don't think they give a shit. And rightly so.

  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 200
    AlsoLei said:

    Forestry is usually counted as resource extraction rather than agriculture, isn't it?

    What agricultural land there is in Finland is concentrated in the south, and along the western coast as far north as Oulu - but they do get very high production per hectare.

    The huge contrast between Finnish and British agricultural productivity figures are mostly a result of the different attitudes towards land use - our previously forested lands are used for marginal hill farms and grouse moors etc.
    Yup. Forests are counted as an asset and are capitalised.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Denmark and South Korea are more prosperous than us because we have too many thickos..

    Sorry :disappointed:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    JFN said:


    I don’t know a single Labour or anti-Tory tactical voter who thinks the Labour win is in the bag. We are all terrified that the Tories will do what they’ve always done and spin something/creep a win.
    You should talk with some Tories, your confidence in a Labour win will increase markedly.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,955
    kle4 said:

    Cue sea of old people jokes.

    But in all seriousness people finally seem ready to put Farage into the Commons. He's been an important political figure for a long time, it will be interesting to see how he adapts to the role, or if he still spends his time licking boots in the United States.

    He could be Tory Deputy Leader by Christmas.
    Dogged persistence seems to be a feature of narcissistic spectrum politicians, born I think of their incredibly thick skins and lack of self-doubt.

    Farage, Galloway, Trump, Truss, Boris, Netanyahu, Assad, Corbyn, further back in time Neil Hamilton, Berlusconi…

    Other normal politicians of both left and right give up after multiple setbacks and humiliations with their tails between their legs. Narcissists just keep going, until they finally get their way.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Denmark and South Korea are more prosperous than us because we have too many thickos..

    Sorry :disappointed:
    Heathener said:

    Yes. And no. But I’m amused you refer to ‘Fleet Street’ ;)

    I don’t have a weekly column by the way. Pieces from time to time, often on commission when they sense a juicy topic for me to write up.

    I’ll leave it there but if anyone outs me on here you won’t ever see me again. I like to keep it anon and I hope that can be respected.

    xx
    No chance of that. All journos on this site are incredibly well disguised.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Leon said:

    Their 32 MPs are gonna end up led by Tug-end-hat

    And that will be their last meaningful leader ever. He will agree with everything Labour does and just pretend that the rump Tories will tax slightly less. This meaningless politics cannot continue. The Tories either become populist rightwing or they die
    If they end up with 32 MPs, then a leadership ballot could be triggered by just 5 of them. We might well see more Tory leaders in the coming parliament than we did in the last...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    edited June 2024
    Just noticed that the Greens are also forecast to win North Herefordshire / Leominster with today's MRP.

    Grn 36%
    Con 30%
    Lab 15%
    Ref 13%
    LD 5%

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,737
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    How was he wrong in hindsight?
    His idea of a universal grammar, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_grammar , is wrong.

    Well, it is much debated. Many linguists and psychologists think it’s wrong, but others still support the idea.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Sorry :disappointed: No chance of that. All journos on this site are incredibly well disguised.
    I’ve had pieces published in HR Magazine and Personnel Today. Does that count?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    Off topic but I have noticed there are sometimes up to four Nigels in a thread (if we include Farage) and it's incredible to think it's literally extinct as a new baby name - or at least it was in 2020
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Andy_JS said:

    How was he wrong in hindsight?
    https://slator.com/how-large-language-models-prove-chomsky-wrong-with-steven-piantadosi/
  • JFN said:


    I don’t know a single Labour or anti-Tory tactical voter who thinks the Labour win is in the bag. We are all terrified that the Tories will do what they’ve always done and spin something/creep a win.
    If I was Starmer I would be hoping for a poll showing Lab only 3 points ahead as otherwise there will be a lot who won't vote tactically or bother to vote at all on the grounds it is a shoo in.

    For all the opinion polls, it has to be remembered that with the tory majority of 80 combined with the SNP in Scotland and the boundary changes, Starmer needs a swing like Blair got to get a majority.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    kle4 said:

    Cue sea of old people jokes.

    But in all seriousness people finally seem ready to put Farage into the Commons. He's been an important political figure for a long time, it will be interesting to see how he adapts to the role, or if he still spends his time licking boots in the United States.

    He could be Tory Deputy Leader by Christmas.
    He's not going to accept being deputy anything is he?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,574
    HYUFD said:

    Genuine poshos might go Liberal rather than Tory or at a push Green if really bohemian but Labour has far too working class a heritage for most poshos to vote for
    Wasn't it said that our current King wanted to join the Labour group at Uni?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2024

    .

    His idea of a universal grammar, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_grammar , is wrong.

    Well, it is much debated. Many linguists and psychologists think it’s wrong, but others still support the idea.
    "The others" are becoming rather last Japanese soldier-esque.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    He's not going to accept being deputy anything is he?
    Merely a stepping stone, after a Tory Reform merger in which the Tories were the largest portion. He'd then make his move in time.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    DougSeal said:

    I’ve had pieces published in HR Magazine and Personnel Today. Does that count?
    Dunno. Next time I'm in the office I'd have to look to see if you contributed to the magazines I never read.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,737
    DougSeal said:

    I’ve had pieces published in HR Magazine and Personnel Today. Does that count?
    I got Star Letter in Cats Today once.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2024

    Wasn't it said that our current King wanted to join the Labour group at Uni?
    Not sure they are left wing enough for him. The Greens I can see.

    I am always amused by when the courts forced the released of the letter to the government he sent under the last Labour government and that the Guardian fought toe and nail to get...only to find he was incredibly annoying spending constant letter asking ministers if they were aware of the plight of the lesser spotted Amazonian bull frog and what did they intend to do about it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    edited June 2024
    Boost for Farage, but also a boost for the Greens - BBC has added another Question Time Special - and it's in prime time - BBC1 8pm Friday 28 June. No Euros that night.

    And this will be one of, if not the last main GE programmes.

    Farage is also doing the Nick Robinson interview which he previously pulled out of.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2024/additional-question-time-leaders-special-and-scheduling-changes-to-panorama-interviews
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    Off topic but I have noticed there are sometimes up to four Nigels in a thread (if we include Farage) and it's incredible to think it's literally extinct as a new baby name - or at least it was in 2020

    We're only making plans for Nigel.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    JamesF said:

    Nasty
    The scumbag defended warcrimes even most Serbians wouldn't touch.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2024
    kle4 said:

    Merely a stepping stone, after a Tory Reform merger in which the Tories were the largest portion. He'd then make his move in time.
    If he does win Clacton hopefully he'll be the on REF MP and Con will retain enough MP's to be able to tell him to **** off once and for all.

    I'd give him six months knocking around the backbenches as a lone George Galloway type figure before he'd be buggering off to America to have his ego stroked there...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,136
    kle4 said:

    Cue sea of old people jokes.

    But in all seriousness people finally seem ready to put Farage into the Commons. He's been an important political figure for a long time, it will be interesting to see how he adapts to the role, or if he still spends his time licking boots in the United States.

    He could be Tory Deputy Leader by Christmas.
    The one thing very clear is that he doesn’t do deputy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Wasn't it said that our current King wanted to join the Labour group at Uni?
    The King is prime LD or Green voter, you can join all the political societies at uni
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    DougSeal said:

    I’ve had pieces published in HR Magazine and Personnel Today. Does that count?
    One of my prouder moments was a page 3 article in the FT (about 500 words iirc) two weeks into a month-long placement as a dogsbody there. And the subs even used the headline I'd actually written.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company after its share price climbed to an all-time high on Tuesday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    IanB2 said:

    The one thing very clear is that he doesn’t do deputy
    One thing that is clear is he is happy to nominally not be in charge, until he is ready to take over officially.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    Andy_JS said:

    Hague's main slogan in 2001 was "Save The Pound".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/27/conservatives.uk
    And to be fair to him, he did
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712
    See who's registering to vote in (almost) real time:

    https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performance
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581

    Sorry :disappointed: No chance of that. All journos on this site are incredibly well disguised.
    Is my sarcasm detector broken or something?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989
    kle4 said:

    Merely a stepping stone, after a Tory Reform merger in which the Tories were the largest portion. He'd then make his move in time.
    How would a merger work? The Tories are, at least nominally, a member-based organisation. Reform are basically just Farage and Tice.
  • So that's at least one overseas vote not going to the Conservatives. 2,999,999 still up for grabs though.
    He just wants public money to help redevelop Old Trafford. Parasite.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    If I was Starmer I would be hoping for a poll showing Lab only 3 points ahead as otherwise there will be a lot who won't vote tactically or bother to vote at all on the grounds it is a shoo in.

    For all the opinion polls, it has to be remembered that with the tory majority of 80 combined with the SNP in Scotland and the boundary changes, Starmer needs a swing like Blair got to get a majority.
    I don’t think he would be hoping for such a poll as that would mean he’d be heading for a hung Parliament or worse anyway
  • https://x.com/sundersays/status/1803170037273907553

    This is the second constituency poll of the campaign, both for The Economist. Both the Hartlepool and the Gillingham constituency polls suggest the polls and MRPs are being significantly too generous to the Conservatives.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    GIN1138 said:

    If he does win Clacton hopefully he'll be the on REF MP and Con will retain enough MP's to be able to tell him to **** off once and for all.

    I'd give him six months knocking around the backbenches as a lone George Galloway type figure before he'd be buggering off to America to have his ego stroked there...
    The number of MPs is relevant I think, but the ratio of Reform to Conservative MPs not so much.

    By which I mean if the Tories are very low in seats they will probably still have way more than Reform, but will be so brutally damaged merger will seem the only viable option. At which point Farage wields the whip hand regardless of having few MPs, and he genuinely could take charge.

    If the Tories retain a substantial number of MPs, say over 100, then they will be desperate to cut a deal with Reform, but merger will not be on the table.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited June 2024
    GIN1138 said:

    Given the numbers we're seeing in the polls the only thing he should be focusing on is retaining his seat and avoiding the Tory Apocalypse...
    Indeed, especially as Mori has Labour winning Tonbridge by 1%. It has lost some of the rural Mallings and culturally is much closer to the Kentish Medway towns, almost all all forecast to go back to Labour as they did in 1997 than posher spa town Tunbridge Wells and wealthy commuter belt Sevenoaks (outside of the bit round the castle and my alma mater Tonbridge school).

    Indeed if Tugendhat is re elected it will be wealthy villages in Sevenoaks district but Tonbridge constituency like Penshurst and Chiddingstone and Hever that do it for him rather than the town itself which may go Labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,136

    Off topic but I have noticed there are sometimes up to four Nigels in a thread (if we include Farage) and it's incredible to think it's literally extinct as a new baby name - or at least it was in 2020

    So is Adolf
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Off topic but I have noticed there are sometimes up to four Nigels in a thread (if we include Farage) and it's incredible to think it's literally extinct as a new baby name - or at least it was in 2020

    Are you proposing a “Nigel quota”? Here or nationwide?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,400
    Is this the election MRP loses its lustre?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Leon said:

    Is it a Hitlerite rumour that some parts of the world have less impressive education systems than others? How is that Nazi?

    if you import people from Denmark or Singapore there's a good chance they are highly educated and have degrees. Somalia or Peru, less so
    You said cognitively, not educationally. They’re different.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    How would a merger work? The Tories are, at least nominally, a member-based organisation. Reform are basically just Farage and Tice.
    Perhaps they could go the Co-operative Party route?
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 200
    kle4 said:

    The number of MPs is relevant I think, but the ratio of Reform to Conservative MPs not so much.

    By which I mean if the Tories are very low in seats they will probably still have way more than Reform, but will be so brutally damaged merger will seem the only viable option. At which point Farage wields the whip hand regardless of having few MPs, and he genuinely could take charge.

    If the Tories retain a substantial number of MPs, say over 100, then they will be desperate to cut a deal with Reform, but merger will not be on the table.
    Really can’t see this. Although logical, logic plays a small part in politics.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited June 2024
    kle4 said:

    Merely a stepping stone, after a Tory Reform merger in which the Tories were the largest portion. He'd then make his move in time.
    I had a read of the reform manifesto. It has just been 'launched' but actually the policies have been up on the Reform website for months almost word for word. It is the manifesto that the tories desperately wanted to write and has a lot of very solid, popular stuff in it - (but let down mainly by the pro motorist nonsense - something the tories are also guilty of). I cannot avoid the conclusion that the historic blunder the conservatives have made is not merging with the Reform party, dumping the centrists, and going in to opposition with 200+ seats.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615
    kle4 said:

    87% of his new seat is made up of his old seat, where he had a majority over 26k.

    No Tory is safe, but he's got better reason to think he might win than most.
    Being a one nation Tory as opposed to a Reform tribute act may help save his skin.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    carnforth said:

    See who's registering to vote in (almost) real time:

    https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performance

    Can’t work out how to find comparative figures for 17 and 19. Would be interesting.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Wasn't it said that our current King wanted to join the Labour group at Uni?
    My experience is very similar to Leon's. It's easy to be socialist if you're so rich you don't care. And similarly it's the most greasy social climbers from noveau riche (or indeed not even riche) backgrounds that are the ones wanking around with waistcoats and shit.

    I remember at Cambridge being invited in to the PItt Club a couple of times (which was by then mostly a Pizza Express - even the Champagne came from there, just in an ice bucket) and while there was indeed still a remarkable level of what those types would call "totty" I think they were very disappointed (they seemed to spend most of their time in what were unisex toilets - ahead of the game!) and the "chaps" playing Brideshead Revisted were an absolute joke.

    The "worst" of the offenders - who used to brag about going to Tonbridge - now spends his life posting on Facebook about his evenings in Tattersall's in Brisbaine. Which also tends to looks very empty on his photos, even though he could probably convince Australians he was a sophisititicant. Very odd the pretending to be upper class thing. I'll continue drinking hoegarden and taking the other sides of their bets around election time thanks. Speaking of which, anyone any tips?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,988

    How would a merger work? The Tories are, at least nominally, a member-based organisation. Reform are basically just Farage and Tice.
    I suspect Nigel would just pull the plug on Reform and tell his disciples that it's now fine to support the Tory Party because he now is it. (I doubt Tice would feature whatsoever in such calculations.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950
    edited June 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    How was he wrong in hindsight?
    Largely AIUI his critique of Behaviourism, which was the dominant idea of the time. The idea that an input led to a predictable output mentally.
    He united several fields of study and brought them together under Cognitive Science (the study of the mind). He was far from alone in this, but on language acquisition, his field, his was the strongest critique.
    The idea that we are pre programmed with grammar and the tools for language before birth has been chipped away at. And recent AI advances suggest he was entirely wrong.
    But nobody is going back to behaviourism. He's super important in the antithesis bit of the Hegelian Thesis/antithesis/synthesis theory of mind.
    Epigenetics and particularly inherited trauma bear some of his major ideas out.

    TL:DR. The mind's a lot more complex than all that.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615

    Off topic but I have noticed there are sometimes up to four Nigels in a thread (if we include Farage) and it's incredible to think it's literally extinct as a new baby name - or at least it was in 2020

    Would you want your son to be named after Farage? AFAIK there were very few boys named Adolf after 1945.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    https://x.com/sundersays/status/1803170037273907553

    This is the second constituency poll of the campaign, both for The Economist. Both the Hartlepool and the Gillingham constituency polls suggest the polls and MRPs are being significantly too generous to the Conservatives.

    N=376

    Ignore, for betting purposes.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    maxh said:

    Is my sarcasm detector broken or something?
    One of ours must be :tongue:
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    darkage said:

    I had a read of the reform manifesto. It has just been 'launched' but actually the policies have been up on the Reform website for months almost word for word. It is the manifesto that the tories desperately wanted to write and has a lot of very solid, popular stuff in it - (but let down mainly by the pro motorist nonsense - something the tories are also guilty of). I cannot avoid the conclusion that the historic blunder the conservatives have made is not merging with the Reform party, dumping the centrists, and going in to opposition with 200+ seats.
    I don’t think their proposals to effectively abolish the right to paid holiday and maternity leave, amongst the other bonfire of employment right, are that popular. Labour would be all over that.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    kle4 said:

    Perhaps they could go the Co-operative Party route?
    CDU/CSU. More separate and regionalised. Reform gets the red wall and Essex.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    Is this the election MRP loses its lustre?

    There are several different MRPs, and they are different enough that they can't all be as impressively right as the technique was when it first emerged. Ultimately it's still vulnerable to the main problem afflicting regular opinion polls - getting hold of a decent sample. And then the second main problem - people who lie to themselves about their intentions can't help doing the same to a pollster.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,955
    Chameleon said:

    The scumbag defended warcrimes even most Serbians wouldn't touch.
    Is he actually dead? Suggestions he’s alive and well.

    His genocide denials were indeed rather Irving-esque. Cambodia, FFS.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Is this the election MRP loses its lustre?

    A rhetorical question I presume?
  • He just wants public money to help redevelop Old Trafford. Parasite.
    Fake news.

    He wants to unlock a massive development in Trafford which would require significant public investment to improve freight rail and other national infrastructure.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 587
    edited June 2024
    Based on a tweet from @JamesDAustin about the Gillingham and Rainham VI Constituency Poll for The Economist.

    Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional)

    LAB: 55% (+27)
    CON: 23% (-39)
    REF: 15% (+15)
    LDEM: 5% (=)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    My god. Worth noting this has a swing way beyond anything that the MRPs are picking up.





    Looking at @Samfr database of projections this has Labour outperforming the most bullish MRP by 11% and Tories under by 6%.

    Similar to Hartlepool and way outside MoE. Just one poll but
    ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    darkage said:

    I cannot avoid the conclusion that the historic blunder the conservatives have made is not merging with the Reform party, dumping the centrists, and going in to opposition with 200+ seats.

    No

    The further right they go chasing the votes of closet racists and swivel eyed loons the more seats they lose.

    They should have told Nige and all his fanboys to fuck off. Again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    Heathener said:

    p.s. re Tugendhat, if the tories do go to a 1997 or worse, remember what happened after that one. The young new darling of the party, William Hague, took on the leadership at the wrong time and when the inevitable happened in 2001, he went.

    Hague should have backed Howard in 1997, let him take the 2001 landslide defeat, then he would likely have been the next leader not IDS. He could have cut Labour's majority in 2005, been young enough to stay leader and then beaten Brown in 2010 and become PM rather than Cameron. He did everything CV wise to become PM but tactically made a huge error politically.

    I suspect Barclay is more likely the next Tory leader than Tugendhat anyway once it gets to the members
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    darkage said:

    I had a read of the reform manifesto. It has just been 'launched' but actually the policies have been up on the Reform website for months almost word for word. It is the manifesto that the tories desperately wanted to write and has a lot of very solid, popular stuff in it - (but let down mainly by the pro motorist nonsense - something the tories are also guilty of). I cannot avoid the conclusion that the historic blunder the conservatives have made is not merging with the Reform party, dumping the centrists, and going in to opposition with 200+ seats.
    I really don't see how that could be considered a blunder - merger with Reform was not on the table, since the thing many Tories even seem to forget is that Farage and Reform were and are opponents of theirs, onces who want to damage or even overtake them. They were not seeking accomodation.

    What incentive would Farage have had to withdraw the threat his party posed when they had nothing to offer him?

    After he has helped bring the Tories to an historic defeat, they can, he would hope, give him direct influence over the direction of the main opposition, not just indirect influence.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615
    kle4 said:

    Perhaps they could go the Co-operative Party route?
    The Uncooperative Party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292
    DougSeal said:

    I don’t think their proposals to effectively abolish the right to paid holiday and maternity leave, amongst the other bonfire of employment right, are that popular. Labour would be all over that.
    Apart from being anti immigration, I think their policies will be deeply unpopular.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,802
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, I would argue the most important factor in Hong Kong and Singapore's growth was simple geographical happenstance.

    The UK built up ports in places that were good for trade: Singapore at the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, where the Malacca Strait connects the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. And Hong Kong was as a natural deep water port at the edge of China. But - for a long time - not actually China.

    Korea is different, in that the government pushed domestic producers. But it also didn't just have one national champion: LG and Samsung have always been competitors, in the same way that Sony and Matsushita were competitors in Japan. I'd argue the danger is having one national champion, rather than a number of competing firms.
    Part if it was having an educated population prepared to work long hours for low pay, for many decades.
    The Korean 'miracle' didn't really start until the 80s.

    City states like Singapore and Hong Kong aren't really comparable.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 982
    carnforth said:

    See who's registering to vote in (almost) real time:

    https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/performance

    Will the site crash before midnight?
    Seeing how nothing works in this country under the Tories it probably will.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    EPG said:

    You're better than that quip. EU freedom of movement isn't conditional on race.
    No but it is conditional on being a citizen of a predominantly white and wealthy bloc of countries. If people are so in favour of freedom of movement then it should not apply only to those fortunate enough to live in a small caucasian portion of the first world.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,737
    darkage said:

    I had a read of the reform manifesto. It has just been 'launched' but actually the policies have been up on the Reform website for months almost word for word. It is the manifesto that the tories desperately wanted to write and has a lot of very solid, popular stuff in it - (but let down mainly by the pro motorist nonsense - something the tories are also guilty of). I cannot avoid the conclusion that the historic blunder the conservatives have made is not merging with the Reform party, dumping the centrists, and going in to opposition with 200+ seats.
    Is it still promising a review of supposed vaccine harms? I know it still talks about the World Economic Forum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited June 2024
    biggles said:

    CDU/CSU. More separate and regionalised. Reform gets the red wall and Essex.
    Reform actually is projected to do better in areas like Gt Yarmouth, SE Cornwall and East Kent as well as the redwall than the posher parts of Essex like Chelmsford and NW Essex
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,136
    HYUFD said:

    Reform actually is projected to do better in areas like Gt Yarmouth and East Kent as well as the redwall than the posher parts of Essex like Chelmsford and NW Essex
    Their vote likely correlates strongly with lower levels of educational attainment
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,988
    HYUFD said:

    Hague should have backed Howard in 1997, let him take the 2001 landslide defeat, then he would likely have been the next leader not IDS. He could have cut Labour's majority in 2005, been young enough to stay leader and then beaten Brown in 2010 and become PM rather than Cameron. He did everything CV wise to become PM but tactically made a huge error politically.

    I suspect Barclay is more likely the next Tory leader than Tugendhat anyway once it gets to the members
    Wasn't Howard stuffed by Widdy's 'Something of the night' barb?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    There are several different MRPs, and they are different enough that they can't all be as impressively right as the technique was when it first emerged. Ultimately it's still vulnerable to the main problem afflicting regular opinion polls - getting hold of a decent sample. And then the second main problem - people who lie to themselves about their intentions can't help doing the same to a pollster.
    Apart from the one just before the 2017 their results have been poor.

    They are interesting, but just another projection.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730

    No but it is conditional on being a citizen of a predominantly white and wealthy bloc of countries. If people are so in favour of freedom of movement then it should not apply only to those fortunate enough to live in a small caucasian portion of the first world.
    It seems more politically sustainable than free migration from the third world, which hasn't been sustainable in any rich country. A bit like the people who want world government, it seems like vaunting the best (maybe) as the enemy of the good.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,318

    Noam Chomsky has died.

    It is no longer possible to construct the concept of a Noam Chomsky, although the possibility of an unconstructed or deconstructed Noam Chomsky - uninstantiated if you will - remains.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    HYUFD said:

    Hague should have backed Howard in 1997, let him take the 2001 landslide defeat, then he would likely have been the next leader not IDS. He could have cut Labour's majority in 2005, been young enough to stay leader and then beaten Brown in 2010 and become PM rather than Cameron. He did everything CV wise to become PM but tactically made a huge error politically.

    I suspect Barclay is more likely the next Tory leader than Tugendhat anyway once it gets to the members
    Not sure about that. Tugendhat comes across as likeable and level-headed. Military bsckground won't harm him either. Could appeal to Tory members wanting an end to chaos, and someone they, and the public can identify with, as a slightly old-fashioned, if not old (he's 50) public servant-type Tory.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615
    HYUFD said:

    Hague should have backed Howard in 1997, let him take the 2001 landslide defeat, then he would likely have been the next leader not IDS. He could have cut Labour's majority in 2005, been young enough to stay leader and then beaten Brown in 2010 and become PM rather than Cameron. He did everything CV wise to become PM but tactically made a huge error politically.

    I suspect Barclay is more likely the next Tory leader than Tugendhat anyway once it gets to the members
    What happens if one member votes for Tugendhat and the other one votes for Barclay?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    I got Star Letter in Cats Today once.
    I won a caption competition in The Chemical Engineer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,737

    No but it is conditional on being a citizen of a predominantly white and wealthy bloc of countries. If people are so in favour of freedom of movement then it should not apply only to those fortunate enough to live in a small caucasian portion of the first world.
    That’s entirely illogical. Why are the only options free movement within the British Isles or free movement in the whole world?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited June 2024

    Not sure about that. Tugendhat comes across as likeable and level-headed. Military bsckground won't harm him either. Could appeal to Tory members wanting an end to chaos, and someone they, and the public can identify with, as a slightly old-fashioned, if not old (he's 50) public servant-type Tory.
    He was too much of a Remainer to win it though yes he likely gets 45%
This discussion has been closed.