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A nice tip to start your Sunday – politicalbetting.com
A nice tip to start your Sunday – politicalbetting.com
Survation has them three points apart https://t.co/ahqoEtTEVo pic.twitter.com/UgBAV9PkQ3
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Difficult to know who is the best TV against Farage in Clacton.
It will be so funny if Lab wins there.
I see people on the previous thread objected to me and others calling Farage a nasty racist. Perhaps if he doesn't want to be called a nasty racist, he shouldn't be a nasty racist?
It's not woke to call a racist a racist, it's the truth.
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4717755-trump-says-remaining-bitcoin-must-be-made-in-us/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-him
... which is usually my forte ;-)
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
Just put a tiny sum on this. Only got a smattering of small bets, constituencies (Clacton-Con, Richmond-Lab, Tewkesbury-Lib), Con to get 150-199 seats (looking red), Lab to get an outright majority (quietly confident).
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
They should be kicked out of the tournament for violating the spirit of cricket, again.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
No. Keep him out.
https://x.com/_SalmanAnwar/status/1801291493984063702?t=Jiwj-nswRwHFW6LSCR0Wog&s=19
This tournament will end before election day.
The BBC will find a reason to invite him on the Daily Fucking Farage till he dies
From the off, this election has been Labour’s to lose – and boy does it know it. I say...this as a compliment to the professionalism of the Labour campaign, not least because I’ve witnessed so many past contests in which the party lacked the ferocious focus and the steely will to prevail in the brutal contact sport of electoral politics.
As we puff past the halfway mark, journalists pronounce themselves bored with Labour. Meant as an insult, it is flattery in the ears of Sir Keir’s team. The media thirsts for drama and novelty, but the Labour team’s contrary belief is that most voters currently crave stability and predictability.
The manifesto does indeed contain nothing you would not already know if you’ve been paying reasonably close attention to the “missions” and the “first steps” previously unveiled. That doesn’t make it fair to damn it as a timid prospectus. On the likes of housebuilding, clean power and achieving sustainably higher growth, the longer-term goals are almost heroically ambitious.
The Tories are the party for those preferring one that frantically sprays out unfunded, slapdash, last-minute wheezes. As a strategy, that doesn’t seem to be working out all that well for Rishi Sunak.
Unless the entire polling industry is perpetrating the howler of all time, he will be entering Downing Street in less than three weeks’ time. It will be a dazzling achievement to take Labour into power just five years after the party’s worst defeat since the 1930s. Those who want to cavil will say that the main propellant of Sir Keir’s success is not desire to see him in power, but loathing for the Tories. This is not such a killer point as some imagine it to be. The unpopularity of their opponents played a large part in putting Tony Blair in Number 10 in 1997 and Margaret Thatcher in 1979.
There are two worms of unease wriggling in Labour’s guts. One is that forecasts of a Starmer mega-majority may so alarm rightwing voters that they pinch their noses and rally to the Tories. Mr Sunak’s crew is already desperate enough to be implicitly conceding defeat by publicising graphics suggesting Tory parliamentary representation could be so eviscerated that there will be no meaningful opposition to a Labour government. The other concern for Labour is that there is an “enthusiasm deficit” that will mean victory is tainted by a depressed turnout. Some Labour frontbenchers think the time is coming when there needs to be more effort to lift the spirits of the electorate. One of the leader’s team agrees that “we need to make things sing” in the run-up to polling day. What more can the Labour campaign add? Food for the soul. Providing, of course, it is fully costed.
I wouldn't expect to see him outside the subsidised bars.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
You can't have either miraculous growth or tax cuts in an economy dominated by property speculation and a constant net flow of wealth to the elderly.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
And you are the kind of person needed to drag your Party back after July 5th. @TSE likewise.
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
https://x.com/trebiepolitics/status/1801978335200723125?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
If I were in Clacton however...
I think they are going to underperform on the day.
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Just vote for the party that you most like. Simples.
A lot of Tories are going to sit on their hands, per 1997.
Reform are utterly hopeless at getting their vote out.
Labour are doing their best not to be interesting and are so obviously going to win big, why bother?
Even a lot of SNP supporters are more disenchanted by their own party than thinking about anyone else.
The Lib Dems are, correctly, focusing on those seats where they think they have a chance and are token elsewhere.
You have this theory that rage against the Tories will drive turnout and the result. You may be right but I am seeing a lot of ennui.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/15/labour-and-tories-would-both-leave-nhs-worse-off-than-under-austerity-says-thinktank
Expect a fair number of "no way!" results...
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
The man hypes more than a pollster tweeting in advance of a poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/16/hmrc-has-failed-to-fine-a-single-enabler-of-offshore-tax-in-five-years
'Tory ministers claimed new laws introduced in 2017 allowed HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to pursue accountants, lawyers and bankers who facilitate offshore tax evasion would “create a level playing field”, with potential fines of several millions of pounds.
New figures disclosed under freedom of information laws to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism reveal no one has been fined in the last five years under the powers.
“New HMRC powers are pointless if the powers aren’t then used,” said Dan Neidle, founder of the independent thinktank Tax Policy Associates and former head of tax at global law firm Clifford Chance.'
Incidentally, speaking of betting, why do very experienced hands like TSE, PtP, etc continue to quote Sporting's odds, together with pics of their web pages when in fact this spread-better was acquired by Spreadex earlier this year. Sppreadex's layout, although unsurprisingly similar and equally unsurprisingly identical in terms of their spread prices is both lighter and brighter than Sporting's.
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
I don’t know. I did say the other day that I would even vote Conservative to keep out Farage and I meant it.
Because it’s genuinely more 3-way there and because I think Labour are going to do pretty well nationally (37-42%) I’d probably vote Labour but a last minute decision and if I saw evidence the Conservative could win, I’d hold my nose and vote for him. As someone else mentioned ( @Foxy ?) it’s the only place they would vote Conservative.
I wish we could have some actual constituency polling though?