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Lib Dems! Winning here? – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2024
    The Tories biggest problem now isn't so much the gap (which if anything is reducing slightly) its their share - low 20s or teens. Not enough butter over too much bread. Unless they are losing very unevenly you just can't hold seats to any extent on 20. Bare Minimum 25 to try and hold a 97 level if labour come in about 40. So they need to start seeing some point gain by this time next week i think or ill be lumping on 0 to 50 or 50 to 100 seats. Its almost over.
  • kle4 said:

    It is astonishing to me how horrified many people are by many things that are actually very common.
    Indeed.

    If you want total privacy and nobody to be able to see into your land nobody is stopping you from buying land that is completely remote and building fences/hedges around your property.

    But the idea that its horrific if a neighbour can see into your garden . . . I wonder where people think the views in semis or terraces (or even most detached homes) actually look into?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,149

    Have you actually read it? 😃
    No.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,297

    500+ seats for Labour would be nuts and expose the broken-ness of FPTP (when it breaks, it really breaks) but it will lead to a ridiculously entertaining parliament. The opposition parties will go through a huge change and reconfiguration and Labour will probably get its own internal opposition/some floor crossers.

    Or Starmer dies, gets incapacitated, or suffers a scandal, and the Labour Party elect a competent Corbyn-style leftist as PM...

    The Conservatives could not complain, given the merry-go-round of PMs we've had over the last ten years.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024

    Baso, Winchester, Guildford, have all gone, possibly forever.

    Woking likewise.

    Now rock solid LibDem

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007
    Tories sre fucked but the nation will be fuvked when. Labour get in. Tax until the pips squeak.....
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,959

    Does anyone know which bookmakers allow doubles and trebles for Politics?

    Many thanks,

    I doubt if any do. Because of "related contingent" events.
  • Would you be happy with another house having a balcony *directly on the perimeter of your garden*?
    Of course, if it is on their land.

    And if I want one too on my land then those two can meet.

    As again is very common in many semis or flats or mews. Often with a little fence separating the two balconies.

    Honestly, some things some people come up with here is unbelievable.

    What next, should your neighbour be allowed pets?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,959
    edited June 2024

    The idea of Harry Worth doing PMQs is growing on me.
    Harry Worth bits and pieces on YouTube etc will be one of the consolations of my declining years. The thought that he may be starring on BBC Parliament Channel from July as well is, surely, too good to be true. Bring it on. Shop window and all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,297

    Indeed.

    If you want total privacy and nobody to be able to see into your land nobody is stopping you from buying land that is completely remote and building fences/hedges around your property.

    But the idea that its horrific if a neighbour can see into your garden . . . I wonder where people think the views in semis or terraces (or even most detached homes) actually look into?
    An ex of mine bought her suburban house so she could sunbathe in the nude. When she moved, it was her number one requirement.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,171

    There are no final victories in politics.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_a_Good_Cause—
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Scott_xP said:

    @josiahmortimer
    Some hefty stats here from @robfordmancs: "Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

    "The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

    "More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...

    "While a miracle of late persuasion cannot be ruled out, at present the most relevant question for Conservative MPs isn’t “can we win?” but rather “can any of us survive?”"

    Wow

    That’s hard hitting
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Tories sre fucked but the nation will be fuvked when. Labour get in. Tax until the pips squeak.....

    I see they've already taxed your keyboard until the keys swap places.
  • An ex of mine bought her suburban house so she could sunbathe in the nude. When she moved, it was her number one requirement.
    Absolutely nothing wrong with that if she's bought the land that surrounds her garden. :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082
    To be able to get 1/3 on the Tories holding Sevenoaks is something I thought I would never see. Surely free money?
  • There are no final victories in politics.
    There aren't but the Tories are seeing to it. Based on where the Tories seem to wan tot go, Winchester and Guildford will be Lib Dem.

    Up to the Tories if they want to come back to folks like me...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    Of course, if it is on their land.

    And if I want one too on my land then those two can meet.

    As again is very common in many semis or flats or mews. Often with a little fence separating the two balconies.

    Honestly, some things some people come up with here is unbelievable.

    What next, should your neighbour be allowed pets?
    If the two met then you would have a window that opened into your neighbour's house.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Scott_xP said:

    @josiahmortimer
    Some hefty stats here from @robfordmancs: "Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

    "The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

    "More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...

    "While a miracle of late persuasion cannot be ruled out, at present the most relevant question for Conservative MPs isn’t “can we win?” but rather “can any of us survive?”"

    Brutal. No one is that bad.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,421
    BF have their full constituency lists up now.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    JohnO is campaigning there, I have faith in my fellow PB Tory.
    Esher and Walton is a 90% LibDem chance on electoral calculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Esher and Walton
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Bomb squad at Jeremy Quins office in Horsham 'suspect package'
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    JohnO is campaigning there, I have faith in my fellow PB Tory.
    "Hello, I'm a Loony for Rishi!" might be effective on the doorstep? In one way or another!
  • If the two met then you would have a window that opened into your neighbour's house.
    You said a balcony directly on the perimeter of the "garden", not the house.

    If the two meet then I would have a balcony directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden, which is quite common. So common a quick Google search brought up loads of images of terraces with adjoining balconies just like that, so what's the problem?

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082
    Sean_F said:

    He is quite simply the most pathetic politician of my lifetime.
    Nah, that’s a title Johnson will hold forever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,149
    Scott_xP said:

    @josiahmortimer
    Some hefty stats here from @robfordmancs: "Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

    "The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

    "More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...

    "While a miracle of late persuasion cannot be ruled out, at present the most relevant question for Conservative MPs isn’t “can we win?” but rather “can any of us survive?”"

    I don't even know how to respond to this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,599
    Wow. ZONE OF INTEREST is good. Such a clever idea
  • I don't even know how to respond to this.
    Call for Rishi Sunak to fall on his sword and the party to drop such offensive bullshit that is driving away erstwhile Conservative voters like the absurd National Service policy.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024

    He needs to fucking pull himself together and man up. Stop wanking over his stupid spreadsheets, practice emotional intelligence 4 hours a day with a personal coach, go out and talk to people and put on the performance of his life.

    Conservative activist morale is at rock bottom.
    Your mood has certainly changed since a fortnight ago.

    This has been quite the worst campaign of my life, and I’m sure many of you older than I can say the same.

    But it’s not just Rishi Sunak’s fault and in that sense I feel slightly sorry for him. The foundations for what looks like a heavy defeat were laid … well when? Liz Truss? Boris Johnson? Brexit? Covid? Ukraine?

    They have been dealt a terrible hand but my god they haven’t half played it badly.

    Enough from me. I am still cautious about the result.
  • Pagan2 said:

    In the us you can offset losses
    Not always!

    You can only offset losses if you 'itemize your deductions', which for a married couple means deductions greater than $25K or $12.9K for an individual. Unless you're losing >$13K a year or you have lots of other investment losses you can itemize (e.g. mortgage interest) you can't offset the losses. But you're still taxed on the wins.

    Source: my username, but mainly from knowing a lot of degenerate gamblers who live in Vegas.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: the favourability bar chart in thread header, is it unusual that NONE of the politicos has a net positive?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    stodge said:

    The Conservative position at local level has been deteriorating for some years.

    I think the only Conservative administration left in the country is Reigate & Banstead - all the others have fallen either to the LDs or to coalitions which exclude the Conservatives.

    The County Council remains Conservative controlled but the majority was reduced in 2021 and is just seven. Whether that will be maintained at the 2025 elections remains very much to be seen.
    This, by the way, is another of the reasons the Conservatives will not bounce straight back. They have been losing their base at local level.

    You need those activists to get back into contention at Westminster.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,307

    I don't even know how to respond to this.
    I can tell you how most voters are responding to this. Or more accurately, how the will respond on July 4.

    And poor as Rishi's ratings are, those for the government are worse. Which, after the antics of the last five years, is how it should be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739
    edited June 2024

    You said a balcony directly on the perimeter of the "garden", not the house.

    If the two meet then I would have a balcony directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden, which is quite common. So common a quick Google search brought up loads of images of terraces with adjoining balconies just like that, so what's the problem?
    No, those would not be *directly* on the perimeter of your garden. You've misunderstood the premise of my question.

    If there were no planning rules, someone could build into their garden and put a balcony directly overlooking yours, not indirectly at an angle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Sunak and Hunt's net favourables at the bottom of the chart. Assuming they lose badly their wing of the party will likely lose control of the Tories and the right in the UK for a generation, especially with Farage's approval net even higher than theirs.

    No surprises in the Labour manifesto, very much caution first
  • No, those would not be *directly* on the perimeter of your garden. You've misunderstood the premise of my question.

    If there were no planning rules, someone could build into their garden and put a balcony directly overlooking yours, not indirectly at an angle.
    Those are directly on the perimeter. They literally go across the perimeter since they're adjoining.

    Whatever someone wants to build on their land, is their business.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,959
    That Tehran UFO is more or less my 6 year old grandson's platonic ideal of what a UFO ought to look like, which means that a tiny piece of doubt is creeping in. I hope that any outfit clever enough to get here in the first place is clever enough not to land in in a country with a less than 100% record on observing the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Heathener said:

    This, by the way, is another of the reasons the Conservatives will not bounce straight back. They have been losing their base at local level.

    You need those activists to get back into contention at Westminster.
    Though even Hague and Ed Miliband made big gains in local elections even if they were defeated at the subsequent GE. Once Labour is in power the Tories will get the protest vote as well as the LDs, now the protest vote is for Labour and the LDs (and Reform at the GE)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    I don't even know how to respond to this.
    You may not believe me but I do feel for you Casino. I disagree with your political views but I appreciate they are sincerely held. Johnson, Truss then Sunak - three disastrous leaders in a row is unsustainable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,686

    If the two met then you would have a window that opened into your neighbour's house.
    That could be useful in certain circumstances.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    Trying to think of a strategy for the Tories to improve things...

    There isn't one! 😂
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    Those are directly on the perimeter. They literally go across the perimeter since they're adjoining.

    Whatever someone wants to build on their land, is their business.
    Am I going to have to draw a picture to explain it to you?

    If one of those houses extended backwards and put balconies on the side, you would be ok with that?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak and Hunt's net favourables at the bottom of the chart. Assuming they lose badly their wing of the party will likely lose control of the Tories and the right in the UK for a generation, especially with Farage's approval net even higher than theirs.

    No surprises in the Labour manifesto, very much caution first

    It's a Ming vase manifesto.
  • Am I going to have to draw a picture to explain it to you?

    If one of those houses extended backwards and put balconies on the side, you would be ok with that?
    If its on their land, yes, of course!

    What bloody difference does it make?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    Wow. ZONE OF INTEREST is good. Such a clever idea

    Book or film?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    boulay said:

    Well, Rishi might not be remembered as the best PM, not remotely the longest serving PM, not the longest serving modern day Tory PM but he might go into the history books as the very last Conservative PM. Beat that Liz and Boris.

    If that were the case the next right of centre PM in the UK would likely be Nigel Farage or someone very like him, with Reform having taken over the Tories Canada style to form a new Conservative Party under FPTP or an alliance with them under PR
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 599

    How long have you lived in the UK?
    Your reliance on the measured, stiff upper lip "British spirit" carries no weight with me. The nature of contemporary populism totally unlike anything in modern British political experience.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,686

    You said a balcony directly on the perimeter of the "garden", not the house.

    If the two meet then I would have a balcony directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden, which is quite common. So common a quick Google search brought up loads of images of terraces with adjoining balconies just like that, so what's the problem?

    image
    I can't quite picture what you mean by "a balcony directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden".
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,861
    EPG said:

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Lib Dems will become the opposition.

    I will literally piss myself laughing if they do. The Karma for 2015 will be absolute.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Your reliance on the measured, stiff upper lip "British spirit" carries no weight with me. The nature of contemporary populism totally unlike anything in modern British political experience.
    I predict a riot!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    just had £10 on LD winning Sheffield Hallam at 100/30 - seems a big price
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,961

    EC is not much use for tactical voting. I'd suggest looking at tactical.vote:

    https://tactical.vote/tewkesbury/
    Another lazy piece of work, I think. My seat is similar to that of Madmacs. Labour are nowhere - not a single Labour councillor in the entire constituency -, and yet both EC and TacticalVote recommend voting Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,599

    Book or film?
    Movie

    Surely the most terrifying soundtrack ever made
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited June 2024
    Oh. So this “Beyond_Topline” - pontifical name, is the “best polling analyst” around? Eh?

    Even though I, MoonRabbit, PREDICTED and explained - for Beyond_Tops and You and Everyone everywhere - this same, inevitable last minute, get Tories out in the Blue Wall Lab to Lib Dem polling drift, TWO YEARS AGO, with Dutch Salute. 😤

    😤
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    ClippP said:

    Another lazy piece of work, I think. My seat is similar to that of Madmacs. Labour are nowhere - not a single Labour councillor in the entire constituency -, and yet both EC and TacticalVote recommend voting Labour.
    Which seat?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I will literally piss myself laughing if they do. The Karma for 2015 will be absolute.
    Not impossible we will have a forced coalition opposition if they come in at, say, 70 odd seats each
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    I will literally piss myself laughing if they do. The Karma for 2015 will be absolute.
    They won't, Election Maps UK forecast is currently Labour 442, Tories 101, LDs 61, SNP 19
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    The only question remaining is how those shifts are distributed.

    A three percent Lab to LD swing everywhere is probably bad for Rishi.

    A fifteen percent swing in the right 100 or so constituencies is potentially terrifying.

    And by now, the profusion of orange diamonds means that the LibDem targeting strategy ought to be literally visible from space.
    Just need to correct 3 words of that 2nd line.

    A three per cent Lab to LD swing everywhere is certainly excellent news for Sunak.

    Although if it were just that it would be too little, too late.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    If its on their land, yes, of course!

    What bloody difference does it make?
    You can't possibly mean that. I think your 'free for all' approach depends on the assumption that other people would behave sensibly and not do anti-social things like building up to their perimiter with balconies on the side elevation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    Not impossible we will have a forced coalition opposition if they come in at, say, 70 odd seats each
    You don't have coalitions in opposition, unless with PR at election time
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,599
    algarkirk said:

    That Tehran UFO is more or less my 6 year old grandson's platonic ideal of what a UFO ought to look like, which means that a tiny piece of doubt is creeping in. I hope that any outfit clever enough to get here in the first place is clever enough not to land in in a country with a less than 100% record on observing the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

    It is one of the better “hoaxes” or “misidentified drones”

    Intriguingly Iran has a long history of UFO encounters and has produced some very weird accounts. Their alleged presence in Iran also coheres with the ufological theory that Them Aliens are here because we have nukes - and the Iranians are now very close to nukes…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884

    Just need to correct 3 words of that 2nd line.

    A three per cent Lab to LD swing everywhere is certainly excellent news for Sunak.

    Although if it were just that it would be too little, too late.
    Exactly, there are far more Labour v Tory marginals than Tory v LD marginals
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,576
    Sandpit said:

    Laying Reform on the spreads is a bonkers bet. There’s so much potential downside if Sunak and the Tories implode in the next three weeks, but also if Labour and SirKeir struggle to get their message across. It’s not difficult to imagine a whole load of “Red Wall” voting Reform.

    They’re most likely to get 0 or 1, but an open-ended bet against the upside at 4, no thanks.

    Same with the Greens by the way.

    Very unrealistic, the Greens only ever win the 1 seat.
    I actually disagree with both of you RE the Greens. Not a cat's chance in hell they win more than two, but a very good chance they don't win one for once. Bristol Central is very much in play, and Brighton is very loseable this time. So 2, 1 or 0 all very possible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    Bet 365 have Vaz at 41 in Leicester East. Its a crazy constituency with both major parties split and 10 candidates. I reckon that is value. Likely Lab hold, but Vaz is a big man locally...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,149

    You may not believe me but I do feel for you Casino. I disagree with your political views but I appreciate they are sincerely held. Johnson, Truss then Sunak - three disastrous leaders in a row is unsustainable.
    Thanks.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,861
    Roger said:

    Pleased to see Rayner polling so well. For me she's been the standout star of the last few weeks. She capsized the Daily Mail campaign against her and left Dacre and his nasty crew drowning in their vileness

    She's feisty and real. Not what I thought of her at all a year ago and she's made Starmer look better than he sometimes deserved

    I like her. She clearly has a sense of humour. A bit of colour in a grey scene and it’s great that the Tory attacks, which were partly misogyny have blown up in their faces.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    HYUFD said:

    They won't, Election Maps UK forecast is currently Labour 442, Tories 101, LDs 61, SNP 19
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
    Yes, but Rishi is cooking up plans to drive the Conservative vote even lower.
  • Thanks.
    You're alright Casino, at least you've got some views
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,149

    It's a Ming vase manifesto.
    Either he carries it throughout his first term, or he drops it and gets down to business.

    Which will it be?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    I will literally piss myself laughing if they do. The Karma for 2015 will be absolute.
    It's 100 years since the Liberal Party was destroyed in the 1924 general election, so maybe after a Century it's time for a Liberal renaissance?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Definitely read the book, perhaps Amis's best. The movie I agree is excellent but just muses on the idea for 2 hours, the book establishes it and sets a proper story against it.

    Clever idea but Stoppard had it first - it's basically R & K are Dead.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited June 2024
    GIN1138 said:

    It's 100 years since the Liberal Party was destroyed in the 1924 general election, so maybe after a Century it's time for a Liberal renaissance?
    I think we would live in a better country had the Liberals dominated all of the last 100 years, even if I also think that Labour, and at times genuine One Nation Tories, have made some important contributions.

    They are the party most closely related to the Enlightenment era of Britain, to me, and need to keep a hold of all their various wings.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,307
    edited June 2024
    kinabalu said:

    I can't quite picture what you mean by "a balcony directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden".
    The fence between my garden and my neighbours garden is directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden.

    If instead of a fence there's a balcony that goes above the garden that adjoins with the neighbours balcony, then its directly on the same perimeter, just like a fence might be.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GIN1138 said:

    It's 100 years since the Liberal Party was destroyed in the 1924 general election, so maybe after a Century it's time for a Liberal renaissance?
    They are Roy Jenkinsites, not Liberals
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Either he carries it throughout his first term, or he drops it and gets down to business.

    Which will it be?
    I think he'll put it on the shelf on July 5th and get down to business, with the occasion glance at that lovely Ming vase that got him there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Definitely read the book, perhaps Amis's best. The movie I agree is excellent but just muses on the idea for 2 hours, the book establishes it and sets a proper story against it.

    Clever idea but Stoppard had it first - it's basically R & K are Dead.

    R & G are Dead, no?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    The fence between my garden and my neighbours garden is directly on the perimeter of my garden and their garden.

    If instead of a fence there's a balcony that goes above the garden that adjoins with the neighbours balcony, then its directly on the same perimeter, just like a fence might be.
    If you have a row of terraced houses like in the photo you posted, you are saying that you are fine with somebody building over their own garden entirely and putting balconies *directly* overlooking the neighbouring gardens?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153

    The Tories biggest problem now isn't so much the gap (which if anything is reducing slightly) its their share - low 20s or teens. Not enough butter over too much bread. Unless they are losing very unevenly you just can't hold seats to any extent on 20. Bare Minimum 25 to try and hold a 97 level if labour come in about 40. So they need to start seeing some point gain by this time next week i think or ill be lumping on 0 to 50 or 50 to 100 seats. Its almost over.

    I'd be careful about this - there are a huge number of pollsters, and it's easy to miss polls from long-established firms with decent track records at UK elections in the tsunami of other polls. For example, the Tory percentage in the latest polls from some pollsters who at least were around for the last general election:

    Savanta (previously called ComRes) - 25%
    Opinium - 24%
    Survation - 23%
    Ipsos (MORI) - 23%

    If the Tories scored 25% in a GE tomorrow, it wouldn't come as a massive surprise with those scores. Even 27% wouldn't be a huge polling miss. I haven't looked in detail, but it seems to me that the pollsters with the worst scores for the Tories (Redfield & Wilton, YouGov) coincidentally seem to be the pollsters who publish polls most frequently, and so an unwary person can be misled as to where the centre of gravity of polling lies.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,307

    Either he carries it throughout his first term, or he drops it and gets down to business.

    Which will it be?
    It will be tempting to take the Blair approach and do nothing in term 1 for fear of not getting term 2. For the sake of the country, I hope he doesn't, and that he uses "we're in a bigger hole than I feared" excuse as a cover.

    But he's not a young man, which would point towards a need to hurry.
  • If you have a row of terraced houses like in the photo you posted, you are saying that you are fine with somebody building over their own garden entirely and putting balconies *directly* overlooking the neighbouring gardens?
    Those balconies already directly overlook the neighbouring ones.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    I remember previous times here though, when were all speculating that the Lib-Dems were going to replace Labour and it all came to naught.

    In the end the Con-Lab duopoly seems to hold... Will 2024 be the the year that changes?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,390
    HYUFD said:

    They won't, Election Maps UK forecast is currently Labour 442, Tories 101, LDs 61, SNP 19
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
    That is now... but the direction of travel must be very concerning for you Tories.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    HYUFD said:

    They won't, Election Maps UK forecast is currently Labour 442, Tories 101, LDs 61, SNP 19
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
    You seem to have given up Baxtering these latest polls HY?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,633
    Cicero said:

    My family are scattered to the four winds, but Scotland was home until I left the UK altogether.
    Ok.

    And I presume your spend your time pestering those long-legged Lithuanian girls now.....?

    Sigh.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    R & G are Dead, no?
    Sorry yes
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2024

    So what if its got big?

    Its not big enough to resolve the housing shortage.

    That's what happens when the population changes, places get bigger.

    Not a single local authority has tripled in size, so you're exaggerating how big its grown anyway.
    I'm not. It has grown that much. And you're going by local authorities not settlements. So you are being not only discourteous but wilfully refusing to understand the difference.

    If you keep claiming that I tell you something is white when I've told you something is black, there's no point in expecting any rational; discussion.

    I'd rather vote for Nimbies than have someone like you roaming around without any controls. And that is entirely your fault.

    Edit: and this town has already done enough building to keep you happy, more than enough, if that is extended to other places. And you are moaning?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,836
    GIN1138 said:

    I remember previous times here though, when were all speculating that the Lib-Dems were going to replace Labour and it all came to naught.

    In the end the Con-Lab duopoly seems to hold... Will 2024 be the the year that changes?

    QTWTAIN
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    GIN1138 said:

    I remember previous times here though, when were all speculating that the Lib-Dems were going to replace Labour and it all came to naught.

    In the end the Con-Lab duopoly seems to hold... Will 2024 be the the year that changes?

    There's a 52/48 chance imo (you decide which way).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    Those balconies already directly overlook the neighbouring ones.
    No they don't. They directly overlook their own gardens and indirectly overlook the neighbours. I'm suggesting that they could extend backwards and build over their own garden entirely and put balconies facing sideways. Are you ok with that? If not then you have to concede that you need planning rules.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153

    Indeed.

    If you want total privacy and nobody to be able to see into your land nobody is stopping you from buying land that is completely remote and building fences/hedges around your property.

    But the idea that its horrific if a neighbour can see into your garden . . . I wonder where people think the views in semis or terraces (or even most detached homes) actually look into?
    Nobody is going to be building a house overlooking this one.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/house-martello-house-isknafeelna-glengarrif-co-cork/5687793
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,390

    Ok.

    And I presume your spend your time pestering those long-legged Lithuanian girls now.....?

    Sigh.
    Estonian, but a step ladder is useful on such occasions.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739
    @AaronBastani
    Didn’t expect groups of 16 year olds to come over to me…in Sussex… desperate to talk about Farage - who they’ve suddenly discovered via Tik Tok. Its real.

    I’d wager his name/face recognition among 18-24 year olds is as high as the PM or Starmer - probably higher to be honest.


    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/1801312575340097789
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,836
    Have we done the latest Ed Davey stunt? Being drunk.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1801268147749638260?s=46
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Holly Vallance hosts a fundraiser for Trump with her wealthy husband attended by Nigel Farage and Don Trump Jr
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ddj1z8n8go
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,861
    Heathener said:

    Esher and Walton is a 90% LibDem chance on electoral calculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Esher and Walton
    And the LibDem candidate is very good, and has been working the seat hard since 2019.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,307
    edited June 2024
    Carnyx said:

    I'm not. It has grown that much. And you're going by local authorities not settlements. So you are being not only discourteous but wilfully refusing to understand the difference.

    If you keep claiming that I tell you something is white when I've told you something is black, there's no point in expecting any rational; discussion.

    I'd rather vote for Nimbies than have someone like you roaming around without any controls. And that is entirely your fault.
    Yes, because you're the problem. Typical NIMBY scum.

    Local authorities are how these things are measured, and there is nowhere that has tripled in size. Nowhere close to it. A village tripling in size is meaningless, some undeveloped places within authorities will grow in size by 10-fold, 100-fold or more to get even minor developments built. That's kind of the point. Clearly still very undeveloped.

    So saying my settlement has had a 3-fold increase is not impressive.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    No.
    Well nor me! But sounds like @kle actually has!!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    The main problem with Labour getting c.500 seats is practical - the layout of the Commons. You'd have to have around 100 Labour MPs sitting on the opposition benches. Hilarious.
    Perhaps they'd finally take the opportunity to repair Parliament and move elsewhere for a few years.
    Clacton would be perfect.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Yes, because you're the problem. Typical NIMBY scum.

    Local authorities are how these things are measured, and there is nowhere that has tripled in size. Nowhere close to it. A village tripling in size is meaningless, some undeveloped places within authorities will grow in size by 10-fold, 100-fold or more to get even minor developments built. That's kind of the point.

    So saying my settlement has had a 3-fold increase is not impressive.
    Where I live is towns and villages with fields. Some have grown more thasn others. It's my town that I experience. Not some local authority. And not as village.


    You ought to be bloody happy some places have grown that much. Go and bother some real Nimbies somewhere3 else. Rather than generate new Nimbies with your attitude and your discourtesy.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739
    That Reform broadcast is just the text "Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform" with no voiceover.
This discussion has been closed.