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Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time – politicalbetting.com

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  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    biggles said:

    Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
    He has a point though. If a teenager is public spirited to volunteer on an ad hoc basis in their youth without being forced to, but when they turn 18 wants to use their time to do other things, it's surely fair enough. Especially ifthey help them further their life plans.

    Why should they be forced to put them on hold and do forced labour every other weekend or so just because the government wants the votes of people who barely remember the 1950s but have developed a boner for it?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712
    edited May 2024
    Clip round the ear is the better phrase. Slightly less violent, and more evocative.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865

    🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL🚨

    We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow
    asked over 10k people for

    @DailyMailUK

    who they intended to vote for in the general election.

    Seats tally

    CON: 66
    LAB: 476
    LD: 59
    Reform: 0
    Green: 2

    This accounts for tactical voting.

    Oooh! Bring it on!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited May 2024

    🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL🚨

    We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow
    asked over 10k people for

    @DailyMailUK

    who they intended to vote for in the general election.

    Seats tally

    CON: 66
    LAB: 476
    LD: 59
    Reform: 0
    Green: 2

    This accounts for tactical voting.

    Starmer, eh? With any other leader they'd be at 500+
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Shitting hellfire!
    We can’t ignore these polls any more. We must be wary of Normalcy Bias

    Just because it hasn’t happened before does not mean it’s not happening now. The Tories are - as things stand - headed for sub-100 seats, maybe way under 100. Extraordinary
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    'Like a cathedral' is very appropriate. There's a similar escarpment near Llangollen called Eglwyseg, which literally means 'like a church'.
    Remember caving at Eglwys faen, 'stone church', apparently because it was a cave once used for conventicles or similar. In Mynydd Llangatwg SE of Brycheiniog.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309

    🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL🚨

    We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow
    asked over 10k people for

    @DailyMailUK

    who they intended to vote for in the general election.

    Seats tally

    CON: 66
    LAB: 476
    LD: 59
    Reform: 0
    Green: 2

    This accounts for tactical voting.

    My prediction: final result won’t look anything like that.

    The fact it’s even throwing up that kind of result though…. Sobering for the Tories.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Lol
    There’s more chance of me joining the MAGA cult than that forecast coming even close to reality !
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL🚨

    We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow
    asked over 10k people for

    @DailyMailUK

    who they intended to vote for in the general election.

    Seats tally

    CON: 66
    LAB: 476
    LD: 59
    Reform: 0
    Green: 2

    This accounts for tactical voting.

    I might open a second bottle...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    SKS defence for using a *private jet* to announce his cornerstone policy on, erm, climate change is amusing.

    He’s “very, very busy”! Oh that’s okay then. I’m sure literally everyone else who uses a private jet couldn’t possibly say that!

    Perhaps emissions for busy people dont effect climate change

    VOTE GREEN
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952
    Leon said:

    I think I have actually been there!

    Also the bare ruins of Cluny on a soft summer night if you’re entirely alone have a hint of Le Noom
    The places in France I think most filled with it are the Cathar castles of Corbières and the Fenouilledes. Perhaps it’s the distant echoes of sectarian slaughter juxtaposed with the lonely dry hilltops that do it.

    How is Moldovan wine so far? They have a very good rep as vineyard labourers here in England, up there with their Romanian neighbours who dominate the sector.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MJW said:

    He has a point though. If a teenager is public spirited to volunteer on an ad hoc basis in their youth without being forced to, but when they turn 18 wants to use their time to do other things, it's surely fair enough. Especially ifthey help them further their life plans.

    Why should they be forced to put them on hold and do forced labour every other weekend or so just because the government wants the votes of people who barely remember the 1950s but have developed a boner for it?
    Because Brexit. The need for cheap or free labour for the farmers.

    Well, it's as good a rationale from the Tory point of view as any.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Something to cheer the rest of UK up - England done for:

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EXC: PM tells Sun England will win Euros but says country “shouldn’t just be worried about the Danes, Slovenians and Serbs

    “They should be worried about Captain Flip Flop and his band of socialists. I think victory is in sight and we’ll bring it home”


    https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1796623775913353279
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Oh boy
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Lol
    Bit high for CON? 😈
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    The question is, as these polls get reported in the press, will people think "actually, I'd rather Labour didn't have such a large majority" or will they think "so what?"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    tlg86 said:

    I just keep looking at some of these places and thinking "no, there's no way they're voting Labour."

    Hamble Valley isn't quite the equivalent of the Conservatives winning Bootle, but it's not far off.
    The day after the 1997 election a bunch of us went for a celebratory drink in Quorn. Of "Quorn Hunt" infamy. Part of the Loughborough constituency.

    We sat there, looked around, and thought "This is fucking Labour now!'"

    So yes, again this year I expect some archetypal Tory areas to turn red.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375

    I want my MRP

    Sung to the tune of Dire Straits's 'Money for Nothing'?

    I imagine that the saving grace for a lot of Hampshire Conservatives is that both Lab and Lib have got enough to be going on with already.

    Labour have got to make sure they bag Southampton Itchen, with Aldershot as a left field target based on recent locals. Similarly, the Lib Dems need as many sandals as possible in Winchester, then Eastleigh, then Romsey?

    Plus, there's Fareham and Waterlooville, if there's time for pleasure after business.

    Which probably helps Penny Mordaunt in Pompey North.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited May 2024

    Something to cheer the rest of UK up - England done for:

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EXC: PM tells Sun England will win Euros but says country “shouldn’t just be worried about the Danes, Slovenians and Serbs

    “They should be worried about Captain Flip Flop and his band of socialists. I think victory is in sight and we’ll bring it home”


    https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1796623775913353279

    Until the team start going all woke. Remember last time. Tory MPs' support evaporated like an unclaimed beer in a Grassmarket pub.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    I want my MRP

    Are you sure?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835

    Appreciate your reply, but it doesn't alter my view.

    Can remember when Americans (not all, but enough) used to talk about how someone "jewed me down" meaning they drove a very hard bargain, if not worse.

    One heard a woman I worked with, say that to a coworker. When he objected and pointed out that his wife was Jewish, she was horrified. "Oh, I didn't mean that!"

    But of course THAT was what she'd said . . . probably for the last time.
    There was a phrase in the primary school playground "a Jew run" - which apparently was based on the stereotype of Jewish parsimony - and described the action of a boy dribbling the ball from one end of the pitch to the other and not passing it. However, the stereotype wasn't one anyone was particularly aware of, and the assumption spread, reverse engineered from the phrase, that Jews were really really good at football. And someone scoring with a 30 yard volley or casually flicking the ball with the back of his heel would congratulate himself with "Jew skills!"
    We were quite excited when an actual Jew came to our school, and felt a little let down to find he was actually pretty mediocre at football.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    I'm just glad Rishi called the election as soon as he did.

    Otherwise people might have got really cross and wiped the Tories out entirely.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Are you sure?
    He's a glutton for punishment.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,692

    Appreciate your reply, but it doesn't alter my view.

    Can remember when Americans (not all, but enough) used to talk about how someone "jewed me down" meaning they drove a very hard bargain, if not worse.

    One heard a woman I worked with, say that to a coworker. When he objected and pointed out that his wife was Jewish, she was horrified. "Oh, I didn't mean that!"

    But of course THAT was what she'd said . . . probably for the last time.
    When we say "F*** you!", we don't literally mean we'll have intercourse :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    tlg86 said:

    The question is, as these polls get reported in the press, will people think "actually, I'd rather Labour didn't have such a large majority" or will they think "so what?"

    Right now, so what.

    They won't regret it until they see and feel the consequences downstream.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,692

    Lol
    GAME OVER, MAN! GAME OVER!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    Sung to the tune of Dire Straits's 'Money for Nothing'?

    I imagine that the saving grace for a lot of Hampshire Conservatives is that both Lab and Lib have got enough to be going on with already.

    Labour have got to make sure they bag Southampton Itchen, with Aldershot as a left field target based on recent locals. Similarly, the Lib Dems need as many sandals as possible in Winchester, then Eastleigh, then Romsey?

    Plus, there's Fareham and Waterlooville, if there's time for pleasure after business.

    Which probably helps Penny Mordaunt in Pompey North.
    I'll pretty confident Penny will hold on.

    She has her own brand and has been working the seat hard for months. There aren't too many grads or students there, it's military and largely WWC, still, and the localised polling recently wasn't too bad for her.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Leon said:

    We can’t ignore these polls any more. We must be wary of Normalcy Bias

    Just because it hasn’t happened before does not mean it’s not happening now. The Tories are - as things stand - headed for sub-100 seats, maybe way under 100. Extraordinary
    Possibly. The trouble is, disregarding the NOM nonsense, the recent local elections really didn’t suggest this type of outcome. It suggested a very bad outcome but not a near fatal one. Now there might be a split ticket effect but not to that level. Not saying that the outcome in this poll isn’t plausible but there are good reasons for a degree of scepticism.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Leon said:

    We can’t ignore these polls any more. We must be wary of Normalcy Bias

    Just because it hasn’t happened before does not mean it’s not happening now. The Tories are - as things stand - headed for sub-100 seats, maybe way under 100. Extraordinary
    Ed Davey is within a Swinson of MPs of becoming leader of the opposition.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    TimS said:

    The places in France I think most filled with it are the Cathar castles of Corbières and the Fenouilledes. Perhaps it’s the distant echoes of sectarian slaughter juxtaposed with the lonely dry hilltops that do it.

    How is Moldovan wine so far? They have a very good rep as vineyard labourers here in England, up there with their Romanian neighbours who dominate the sector.
    The wine is SERIOUSLY good. I went to the 170km long wine cellars of Clicova the other day. Now I’m staying in Pucari. Famous for the Negru de Pucari of course

    It’s really high quality. They make great sparkling wine as well

    What impresses is the widespread chthonic knowledge. Every rural Moldovan makes his own wine and spirits. It’s just what they do. But it preserves this natural native instinct for viticulture and distilling

    As a wine maker I think you’d love it. Don’t come for architecture. Or art. Or history. Or anything else really. Most of the country is an impoverished farm at best or an urban Soviet toilet otherwise

    But the people are lovely, the food is surprisingly nice, the traditions are real, the quirkiness is engaging and the wine is fabulous
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    The day after the 1997 election a bunch of us went for a celebratory drink in Quorn. Of "Quorn Hunt" infamy. Part of the Loughborough constituency.

    We sat there, looked around, and thought "This is fucking Labour now!'"

    So yes, again this year I expect some archetypal Tory areas to turn red.
    Loughborough had been Labour in 1974. Those Hampshire and Sussex seats are just off the scale.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    I want my MRP

    I used to read it back in the day.

    I assume you are referring to Modern Railways Pictorial?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,166
    edited May 2024
    Deleted
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    NEW THREAD
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,692

    New Thread

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    NEW THREAD

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952
    tlg86 said:

    The question is, as these polls get reported in the press, will people think "actually, I'd rather Labour didn't have such a large majority" or will they think "so what?"

    I think there’s a mixture of reactions to this kind of situation. After all the voting population isn’t uniform.

    There’s certainly a bandwagon effect when a party becomes known to be popular or unpopular. We saw it with UKIP and BXP, when one big set of polls or Euro election results spurred them on to higher scores, and with Cleggmania, and certainly with Blair in the months after his victory.

    And probably the starkest example of this in reverse was 2010-2015 for the Lib Dems, when the first evidence of a polling slump catapulted them to worse things and it became fashionable to hate them. That was a tough time.

    The danger for Tories is a similar post-tuition fees Lib Dem effect, when voting for the party makes you look a bit weird.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    Cookie said:

    I'm not surprised that SSI finds it jarring - if you're not from these shores and have never heard it before I can certainly see that it would be - but I'm genuinely surprised anyone British hasn't heard it used often, and generally as an expression of really-not-that-major exasperation.
    As I said, maybe it's a regional thing? I don't know where either you or Biggles (who first raised it) are from. Maybe it's one of those things which everyone in the North West thinks is universal but turns out not to be (like Tony Wilson or Frank Sidebottom).
    I am willing to accept it's a linguistic quirk some of us haven't heard of. I just don't care for the inherent violence in it, implicit or otherwise. As was pointed out downthread, is "you need a slap" appropriate from a man to a woman? Or to anyone else for that matter? If someone IRL asked me if I needed a slap, I'd ask them if they'd like to see the matter resolved. Outside. I also understand that wasn't the implication here.

    I don't believe you or Biggles really want to physically harm anyone. But l personally wouldn't use the language of physical violence to mean something other than physical violence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    It wouldn’t take much of a swing for the Lib Dems to flip a load more seats. Ed Davey could smile his way to becoming the leader of the opposition.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    ToryJim said:

    Possibly. The trouble is, disregarding the NOM nonsense, the recent local elections really didn’t suggest this type of outcome. It suggested a very bad outcome but not a near fatal one. Now there might be a split ticket effect but not to that level. Not saying that the outcome in this poll isn’t plausible but there are good reasons for a degree of scepticism.
    I suppose there comes a point when a party - like the 1920’s Liberals, stops representing any significant body of opinion. I think the Conservatives’ strategy of talk right, act left, and line your pockets, has simply run out of road.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    tlg86 said:

    The question is, as these polls get reported in the press, will people think "actually, I'd rather Labour didn't have such a large majority" or will they think "so what?"

    Or will they think, "if everyone else is voting for Starmer I'm probably wrong to worry that he might be a bit of a prat," and vote with the tide?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    Something to cheer the rest of UK up - England done for:

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EXC: PM tells Sun England will win Euros but says country “shouldn’t just be worried about the Danes, Slovenians and Serbs

    “They should be worried about Captain Flip Flop and his band of socialists. I think victory is in sight and we’ll bring it home”


    https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1796623775913353279

    If our captain is wearing flip flops rather than boots we've got no chance. Especially if it goes to penalties.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615

    Ed Davey is within a Swinson of MPs of becoming leader of the opposition.
    Is Swinsoning it the political equivalent of Spursing it?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,821
    edited May 2024
    biggles said:

    Are you thick? You’ve had it explained to you that’s it’s a commonly used idiom. Do you know not what that means?
    have you been transported from the 1950s? It's 2024.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    Is Swinsoning it the political equivalent of Spursing it?
    Theresa May is surely the most Spursy PM.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    Ratters said:

    I'm sure pensioners will be lining up to help. Would they deserve a slap if they don't want to do more volunteering?
    Those two age groups are those that volunteer most.

    This statistic presents the proportion of adults who had volunteered in the last year in England, between 2014 and 2020, by age. Over each of the survey periods, the 16 to 24 year old and 65 to 74 year old age groups had the highest share of participants volunteering. In 2019/20, around 39 percent of respondents aged 16 to 24 had volunteered at least once in the year prior to survey.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/420100/volunteers-uk-england-by-age/#:~:text=Over each of the survey,the year prior to survey.
This discussion has been closed.