I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
174 gains from the Tories offset by 6 losses to Hamas and their fellow travellers. I'll take that.
Two ways of looking at it. On the one hand, it could do Labour some good to detach itself from the Muslim vote. A big win elsewhere and who cares about a few seats?
The problem is if Labour don't win by all that much and at the subsequent election they look like they might rely on a deal with MPs of such seats.
A minority government in 21st century Britain propped up by a party of reactionary religious extremists? Surely it'd never happen.
According to the World Bank, Russia's economy has now overtaken Japan's in PPP terms, making it the fourth biggest economy behind China, the US and India.
PPP is a bit false if they face that many sanctions, unless they only want to buy vodka.
WHY anyone with any other top job prospects would WANT to be in the USA federal cabinet is beyond me.
The only really significant jobs are Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. The rest are glorified office boys & girls.
As many have discovered & rued, for example Pete Buttigieg whose political prospects have NOT been enhanced IMHO by being US Transportation Secretary. Even less so for the rest of the politicos in the Biden cabinet.
Which is NOT unique in this regard - just ask Rick Perry!
I would say AG is a decent job, although indeed more a capstone in one's career than a stepping stone.
Disagree. It may SEEM that way, but it ain't.
Essentially a glorified cleaner assigned to uncover (or cover up) really big messes. Often ends in tears, as for example AGs either tell POTUS that what he wants can't happen.
OR even worse, helps them do stuff that should NOT happen. For example, FDR's Attorney General (one of them) who did the legal groundwork for his less-than-politic (to put it mildly) plan to pack the Supreme Court; one of THE great blunders of his administration(s).
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
174 gains from the Tories offset by 6 losses to Hamas and their fellow travellers. I'll take that.
Two ways of looking at it. On the one hand, it could do Labour some good to detach itself from the Muslim vote. A big win elsewhere and who cares about a few seats?
The problem is if Labour don't win by all that much and at the subsequent election they look like they might rely on a deal with MPs of such seats.
A minority government in 21st century Britain propped up by a party of reactionary religious extremists? Surely it'd never happen.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
I think my son's just had his first NOOM moment. He was drawing a mosaic at Bignor Roman Villa, concentrating intently on his work. It was quiet, and no-one entered the room. Eventually he looked up at me and said: "Dad, I feel something in here, something bigger."
"Spiritual?" I asked.
He thought about it a little. "No, but bigger. History."
He then explained that he felt almost as though he was partly back in that time, as if he was breathing in Roman dust.
That’s it! Yes. THE NOOM
Or maybe he needs to get the hoover out a bit more often.
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
Leicester South isn't particularly Muslim, though has a greater than average number. It is the University seat in Leiscester.
There will be a strong Green vote but completely safe Lab IMO. I know it well as Foxjr lives there and my Church is there as well as the University.
Hey, Casino! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks, leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
174 gains from the Tories offset by 6 losses to Hamas and their fellow travellers. I'll take that.
Two ways of looking at it. On the one hand, it could do Labour some good to detach itself from the Muslim vote. A big win elsewhere and who cares about a few seats?
The problem is if Labour don't win by all that much and at the subsequent election they look like they might rely on a deal with MPs of such seats.
A minority government in 21st century Britain propped up by a party of reactionary religious extremists? Surely it'd never happen.
Should we rank Tory PMs since 2010 in order of the amount of anguish they inflicted on themselves during their time in office?
Obviously Cameron coasted through the whole thing, and his ending was mercifully swift. Johnson is not much given to anguish, I think, but Covid didn't suit him, and he seemed to not understand where it all went wrong.
Sunak has clearly found his time in Number Ten somewhat harrowing, but he gets a middling score due to our top two. I'd actually have Truss next. She certainly plumbed the depths, but you don't have much time for long anguished sleepless nights in 49 days.
So our winner is Theresa May. Forced to rely on the DUP for a majority, who then didn't turn up for her when she needed them, and she had 56 days between the first and second meaningful votes, and plenty of causes for anguish before and after.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Breaking News - in Liechtenstein, a group of 17 citizens is organizing a petition drive to force a voter referendum on the country's recently becoming a member of the International Monetary Fund.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
The notional 2019 result for Bicester and Woodstock is 53.4% Con, 26.5% LD, 17.1% Lab.
I think it's worth looking at UNS in national opinion polls as a starting point. At the moment LDs are down nearly 3% on 2019, Lab are up about 12.5%, Con are down 25%. UNS would just about put Labour ahead of the Conservatives with the LDs in a clear 3rd.
The Britain Elects "model" for Bicester looks really strange to me, with the LDs really bucking the national trend of a declining national vote share, and the Lab vote barely up despite taking off nationally.
OK, UNS isn't everything. So let's look at the R&W Blue Wall polling, it's instructive because it's made up of an amalgam of seats in the South where the aggregated vote share from 2019 has the LDs in 2nd place i.e. 2019 was Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 20%. Not that dissimilar to Bicester in 2019 in fact. But what's striking about the Blue Wall polling is that R&W have the change in main parties share much the same as the national share. If anything, Labour are doing slightly better. The latest change on 2019 in the R&W Blue Wall seats is Con -24.7%, LD -4.4%, Lab +13.4%. That is even better for Labour's chances than just applying UNS, with those % changes and you get a result very close to that predicted by Electoral Calculus in Bicester.
So you're right, tactical voting isn't absolutly clear cut, but looking at all that I would give Labour a better chance than the LDs on current national polling.
Thank you, that seems a good analysis. There's some explanation of the Britain Elects model here. Given that it says "The engine of the calculator is based on the strong transition model (STM) of predicting UK elections, created by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus", there must be some major assumptions being made to get a result so different to Electoral Calculus.
Maybe they are using local election results, though I can't see where it says so. (Local election vote shares are LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 14%.)
Given the uncertainty, as I said in another post, it wouldn't surprise me if the Economist model was right and it ended up as a Con hold.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Bet365 reckons Electoral Calculus is closest to the truth. I'm not so sure. Having worked at ONS, which is in Hamble Valley, I think there are some Labour-ish areas, but I think most of it feels like a Lib Dem area.
Will the people having a go just watch the clip. He’s a whinging little kid. He’s a whinging little kid with an underlying point, but he chose to put his head above the parapet and talk about “having” to do volunteering - referring to what he’s done to date. Nothing to do with Rishi’s policy.
Edit - which is also indicative of our “record of achievement” culture which makes kids feel forced to do volunteering. Which isn’t the point. It’s not real if you don’t want to do it.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
The notional 2019 result for Bicester and Woodstock is 53.4% Con, 26.5% LD, 17.1% Lab.
I think it's worth looking at UNS in national opinion polls as a starting point. At the moment LDs are down nearly 3% on 2019, Lab are up about 12.5%, Con are down 25%. UNS would just about put Labour ahead of the Conservatives with the LDs in a clear 3rd.
The Britain Elects "model" for Bicester looks really strange to me, with the LDs really bucking the national trend of a declining national vote share, and the Lab vote barely up despite taking off nationally.
OK, UNS isn't everything. So let's look at the R&W Blue Wall polling, it's instructive because it's made up of an amalgam of seats in the South where the aggregated vote share from 2019 has the LDs in 2nd place i.e. 2019 was Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 20%. Not that dissimilar to Bicester in 2019 in fact. But what's striking about the Blue Wall polling is that R&W have the change in main parties share much the same as the national share. If anything, Labour are doing slightly better. The latest change on 2019 in the R&W Blue Wall seats is Con -24.7%, LD -4.4%, Lab +13.4%. That is even better for Labour's chances than just applying UNS, with those % changes and you get a result very close to that predicted by Electoral Calculus in Bicester.
So you're right, tactical voting isn't absolutly clear cut, but looking at all that I would give Labour a better chance than the LDs on current national polling.
Except that national polling is not relevant here, or in many other seats.
As I understand it, the Lib Dem strategy is to concentrate on a certain number of seats which they think they can win - as they did in the recent byelections in Chesham, North Shropshire, Somerton & Frome and Tiv & Hon. These are all seats that they will have been working hard for the last couple of years. Electors living in these constituencies will have seen that, and will know who the challenger is.
The problem that Baxter et al have is that they have no idea what is going on on the ground. All they can see is the national picture.
But if the Lib Dems have been working an area well, that will show up in the local elections results.
Imagine a constituency where there are more Lib Dem district councillors than there are Conservative councillors, and not a single Labour district councillor..... And yet dear old Martin Baxter forecasts that the Labour candidate will win this constituency..... They do not have the slightest chance of doing that. Electoral Calculus is rubbish.
I have no idea what seats the Lib Dems are targeting, but it would not surprise me in the least to hear that Bicester was one of them.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
I live about two miles away from the constituency border.
Labour are nowhere. I’m not aware they have a single councillor at either district or county level. Their local organisation is one very energetic candidate (Isabel Oakeshott’s sister) and a handful of Twitter rampers.
The LibDems run both district (in coalition with Labour and Green for the West Oxon parts, in coalition with Green only for Cherwell) and county (in coalition with the Greens). They made large gains in the district elections one month ago. Their candidate is a local councillor who was Cabinet member for finance on county until stepping down to fight the seat.
In short, Britain Elects is right, and Electoral Crapulous is, as usual, crapulous.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
If not a slap, what are you proposing?
In that idiom? Usually it’s a comic way of saying you find something mildly (emphasis on MILDLY) irritating but not enough to really do anything about it.
E.g. He has a silly haircut and needs a slap.
If anything it’s slightly affectionate round my way. You wouldn’t say it of someone you actually disliked.
Will the people having a go just watch the clip. He’s a whinging little kid. He’s a whinging little kid with an underlying point, but he chose to put his head above the parapet and talk about “having” to do volunteering - referring to what he’s done to date. Nothing to do with Rishi’s policy.
Edit - which is also indicative of our “record of achievement” culture which makes kids feel forced to do volunteering. Which isn’t the point. It’s not real if you don’t want to do it.
It's a policy whose only purpose is to pander to the prejudice of state supported pensioners about young people, who mostly haven't volunteered in their lives and have no intention of starting now
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
If not a slap, what are you proposing?
In that idiom? Usually it’s a comic way of saying you find something mildly (emphasis on MILDLY) irritating but not enough to really do anything about it.
Will the people having a go just watch the clip. He’s a whinging little kid. He’s a whinging little kid with an underlying point, but he chose to put his head above the parapet and talk about “having” to do volunteering - referring to what he’s done to date. Nothing to do with Rishi’s policy.
Edit - which is also indicative of our “record of achievement” culture which makes kids feel forced to do volunteering. Which isn’t the point. It’s not real if you don’t want to do it.
It's a policy whose only purpose is to pander to the prejudice of state supported pensioners about young people, who mostly haven't volunteered in their lives and have no intention of starting now
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Absolute ——ing lol. Do you want to tell people what the current makeup of Vale of White Horse District Council is, Nick?
Will the people having a go just watch the clip. He’s a whinging little kid. He’s a whinging little kid with an underlying point, but he chose to put his head above the parapet and talk about “having” to do volunteering - referring to what he’s done to date. Nothing to do with Rishi’s policy.
Edit - which is also indicative of our “record of achievement” culture which makes kids feel forced to do volunteering. Which isn’t the point. It’s not real if you don’t want to do it.
It's a policy whose only purpose is to pander to the prejudice of state supported pensioners about young people, who mostly haven't volunteered in their lives and have no intention of starting now
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
If not a slap, what are you proposing?
In that idiom? Usually it’s a comic way of saying you find something mildly (emphasis on MILDLY) irritating but not enough to really do anything about it.
E.g. He has a silly haircut and needs a slap.
I don't find it particularly funny.
Do you need a slap?
Are you thick? You’ve had it explained to you that’s it’s a commonly used idiom. Do you know not what that means?
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
Sounds great. Only been once in my ten years in Yorkshire and we also found the 'path' next to the waterfall a raging torrent. Had fun finding the alternative route though
The cove is magnificent. No noom for me though, it was too busy that day (at the cove, the rest of our walk was pretty quiet).
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Absolute ——ing lol. Do you want to tell people what the current makeup of Vale of White Horse District Council is, Nick?
Because I suspect you don’t, here’s the answer:
LibDem 34 Green 4 Labour 0 Conservative 0
And this is the constituency where, I quote, you say “the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems”.
Yes, it’s not quite coterminous. You have two or three Didcot councillors from South Oxfordshire. One of whom is your candidate.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Absolute ——ing lol. Do you want to tell people what the current makeup of Vale of White Horse District Council is, Nick?
I would imagine it's a wide mix of different parties?
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
If not a slap, what are you proposing?
In that idiom? Usually it’s a comic way of saying you find something mildly (emphasis on MILDLY) irritating but not enough to really do anything about it.
E.g. He has a silly haircut and needs a slap.
I don't find it particularly funny.
Do you need a slap?
Are you thick? You’ve had it explained to you that’s it’s a commonly used idiom. Do you know not what that means?
Are you a twat?
I've told you what I think to your violence based metaphor. I've never heard it used in daily life.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Absolute ——ing lol. Do you want to tell people what the current makeup of Vale of White Horse District Council is, Nick?
I would imagine it's a wide mix of different parties?
Ok maybe not...
Certainly one of the more... courageous GE predictions, that.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
If not a slap, what are you proposing?
In that idiom? Usually it’s a comic way of saying you find something mildly (emphasis on MILDLY) irritating but not enough to really do anything about it.
E.g. He has a silly haircut and needs a slap.
I don't find it particularly funny.
Do you need a slap?
Are you thick? You’ve had it explained to you that’s it’s a commonly used idiom. Do you know not what that means?
Are you thick ? The kid was quite correct - it's not voluntary.
...While 18-year-olds would have a choice in the type of national service they signed up to, participation would not be voluntary - it would be required by law. No one would go to prison for not taking part, Mr Cleverly said, but there would be non-criminal sanctions for those who refused... (BBC)
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
I'm going to feel pretty stupid if I'm wrong about this, but I will be shocked if Labour win North East Hampshire. I'm backing the Tories (4/9) and Lib Dems (33-1) with Bet365.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
I have never heard anyone use it IRL.
I have occasionally heard it used in cockney gangster caper type movies to mean "beat someone up without killing them".
I'd suggest the latter isn't something to aspire to, either literally or figuratively.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
I'm going to feel pretty stupid if I'm wrong about this, but I will be shocked if Labour win North East Hampshire. I'm backing the Tories (4/9) and Lib Dems (33-1) with Bet365.
I doubt that. The line does get held somewhere.
The Tories held over 500 council seats earlier this month, even though they got a drubbing.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
I discovered a bit of that rare French noom today just 5 minutes from Cluny which has been under my nose for 17 years and I never noticed. The ruined (but slowly being renovated by a collective of reclusive stonemasons) mediaeval chateau de Lourdon in Lournand. Built originally by the abbot of cluny to protect his local holdings.
It looks weirdly like a rock formation from the bottom of the hill. The upright pinnacles have been like that for centuries.
I'm going to feel pretty stupid if I'm wrong about this, but I will be shocked if Labour win North East Hampshire. I'm backing the Tories (4/9) and Lib Dems (33-1) with Bet365.
I doubt that. The line does get held somewhere.
The Tories held over 500 council seats earlier this month, even though they got a drubbing.
I just keep looking at some of these places and thinking "no, there's no way they're voting Labour."
Hamble Valley isn't quite the equivalent of the Conservatives winning Bootle, but it's not far off.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
Appreciate your reply, but it doesn't alter my view.
Can remember when Americans (not all, but enough) used to talk about how someone "jewed me down" meaning they drove a very hard bargain, if not worse.
One heard a woman I worked with, say that to a coworker. When he objected and pointed out that his wife was Jewish, she was horrified. "Oh, I didn't mean that!"
But of course THAT was what she'd said . . . probably for the last time.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
Yes, TBF, it's an idiom I'm familiar with. Though probably falling of use these days, so sounds jarring to those unfamiliar.
Michael Rosen 💙💙🎓🎓 @MichaelRosenYes · 11h I don't think the Labour Party would accept me as a member so I'm joining the Tory Party so that I can defect and become a member of the Labour Party that way.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
Sounds great. Only been once in my ten years in Yorkshire and we also found the 'path' next to the waterfall a raging torrent. Had fun finding the alternative route though
The cove is magnificent. No noom for me though, it was too busy that day (at the cove, the rest of our walk was pretty quiet).
'Like a cathedral' is very appropriate. There's a similar escarpment near Llangollen called Eglwyseg, which literally means 'like a church'.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
I have never heard anyone use it IRL.
I have occasionally heard it used in cockney gangster caper type movies to mean "beat someone up without killing them".
I'd suggest the latter isn't something to aspire to, either literally or figuratively.
I'm not surprised that SSI finds it jarring - if you're not from these shores and have never heard it before I can certainly see that it would be - but I'm genuinely surprised anyone British hasn't heard it used often, and generally as an expression of really-not-that-major exasperation. As I said, maybe it's a regional thing? I don't know where either you or Biggles (who first raised it) are from. Maybe it's one of those things which everyone in the North West thinks is universal but turns out not to be (like Tony Wilson or Frank Sidebottom).
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
These kids got forcibly “voluntold“ into lockdowns in order to protect the elder generation. That same elder generation now seems to think they should all be forcibly “voluntold” into national service because they are all (according to said elder generation) workshy hooligans. It seems an astonishingly ungrateful way to behave to me.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
As you know @NickPalmer , because you have kindly helped me, I am involved in a campaign. Those impacted are all over the UK, but a very large number (over 1000) are in Didcot and Wantage, because of where it is and we are supported by the local Tory MP, David Johnston. The campaign is very much non political so if a Labour MP is elected we will be asking for their support. Those involved are mostly non political (although one is a brother of an ex Labour Cabinet minister simply by chance). However we had a meeting a week ago and everyone assumed it was a toss up between Tory and LD so no Labour message has got through.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
I have never heard anyone use it IRL.
I have occasionally heard it used in cockney gangster caper type movies to mean "beat someone up without killing them".
I'd suggest the latter isn't something to aspire to, either literally or figuratively.
I'm not surprised that SSI finds it jarring - if you're not from these shores and have never heard it before I can certainly see that it would be - but I'm genuinely surprised anyone British hasn't heard it used often, and generally as an expression of really-not-that-major exasperation. As I said, maybe it's a regional thing? I don't know where either you or Biggles (who first raised it) are from. Maybe it's one of those things which everyone in the North West thinks is universal but turns out not to be (like Tony Wilson or Frank Sidebottom).
Even as someone who owns far more Factory vinyl than is good for my bank balance, “needs a slap” sounds boorish at best, misogynistic at worst. I would never use it and would think worse of anyone who did.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
Sounds great. Only been once in my ten years in Yorkshire and we also found the 'path' next to the waterfall a raging torrent. Had fun finding the alternative route though
The cove is magnificent. No noom for me though, it was too busy that day (at the cove, the rest of our walk was pretty quiet).
'Like a cathedral' is very appropriate. There's a similar escarpment near Llangollen called Eglwyseg, which literally means 'like a church'.
I'm going to feel pretty stupid if I'm wrong about this, but I will be shocked if Labour win North East Hampshire. I'm backing the Tories (4/9) and Lib Dems (33-1) with Bet365.
I doubt that. The line does get held somewhere.
The Tories held over 500 council seats earlier this month, even though they got a drubbing.
I just keep looking at some of these places and thinking "no, there's no way they're voting Labour."
Hamble Valley isn't quite the equivalent of the Conservatives winning Bootle, but it's not far off.
Labour haven't bothered or got a poster up in East Hampshire yet.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
If not a slap, what are you proposing?
In that idiom? Usually it’s a comic way of saying you find something mildly (emphasis on MILDLY) irritating but not enough to really do anything about it.
E.g. He has a silly haircut and needs a slap.
I don't find it particularly funny.
Do you need a slap?
Are you thick? You’ve had it explained to you that’s it’s a commonly used idiom. Do you know not what that means?
They are being ridiculous. Saying someone “needs a slap” means exactly what you suggest - it means so-and-so is being silly & deserve a scolding. It does not “incite violence”
I'm going to feel pretty stupid if I'm wrong about this, but I will be shocked if Labour win North East Hampshire. I'm backing the Tories (4/9) and Lib Dems (33-1) with Bet365.
I doubt that. The line does get held somewhere.
The Tories held over 500 council seats earlier this month, even though they got a drubbing.
I just keep looking at some of these places and thinking "no, there's no way they're voting Labour."
Hamble Valley isn't quite the equivalent of the Conservatives winning Bootle, but it's not far off.
Labour haven't bothered or got a poster up in East Hampshire yet.
We've had Tory leaflets though.
I've been driving a little through Hampshire and Sussex a little today, and the only election stuff I saw were Lib Dem orange diamonds, including a cluster of four outside different houses in one village.
Compared to usual, this seems a rather quiescent election so far. But the usual caveat applies: a pseudorandom drive though the countryside does not get brilliant coverage of an area...
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
I have never heard anyone use it IRL.
I have occasionally heard it used in cockney gangster caper type movies to mean "beat someone up without killing them".
I'd suggest the latter isn't something to aspire to, either literally or figuratively.
I'm not surprised that SSI finds it jarring - if you're not from these shores and have never heard it before I can certainly see that it would be - but I'm genuinely surprised anyone British hasn't heard it used often, and generally as an expression of really-not-that-major exasperation. As I said, maybe it's a regional thing? I don't know where either you or Biggles (who first raised it) are from. Maybe it's one of those things which everyone in the North West thinks is universal but turns out not to be (like Tony Wilson or Frank Sidebottom).
No. I’ve heard it many times and I’m from Cornwall, grew up in Herefordshire and live in London (or the world). Its an entirely harmless phrase
What? I thought the battle was over whether she'd be standing as an independent? I didn't think this outcome was even on the cards. This sounds, er, bad news for the Labour Party to me.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
A child "needs a slap"? WTF??? IF this is a joke on your part, it's a damned shitty one.
There may be something lost in the translation here. "Needs a slap" is a fairly common piece of British idiom.
Am wondering IF your daughter would find it "fairly common" if you told her that SHE needs a slap, for something she's said, done or not done?
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
SSI, seriously, it's a common piece of British idiom. It's not meant literally. Eyes maybe rolled, but eyelids would not be batted.
Appreciate your reply, but it doesn't alter my view.
Can remember when Americans (not all, but enough) used to talk about how someone "jewed me down" meaning they drove a very hard bargain, if not worse.
One heard a woman I worked with, say that to a coworker. When he objected and pointed out that his wife was Jewish, she was horrified. "Oh, I didn't mean that!"
But of course THAT was what she'd said . . . probably for the last time.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Absolute ——ing lol. Do you want to tell people what the current makeup of Vale of White Horse District Council is, Nick?
I would imagine it's a wide mix of different parties?
Ok maybe not...
Certainly one of the more... courageous GE predictions, that.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
I discovered a bit of that rare French noom today just 5 minutes from Cluny which has been under my nose for 17 years and I never noticed. The ruined (but slowly being renovated by a collective of reclusive stonemasons) mediaeval chateau de Lourdon in Lournand. Built originally by the abbot of cluny to protect his local holdings.
It looks weirdly like a rock formation from the bottom of the hill. The upright pinnacles have been like that for centuries.
I think I have actually been there!
Also the bare ruins of Cluny on a soft summer night if you’re entirely alone have a hint of Le Noom
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
Hmm. Any child who, with reference to volunteering, says “why do I HAVE to do it again” needs a slap.
These kids got forcibly “voluntold“ into lockdowns in order to protect the elder generation. That same elder generation now seems to think they should all be forcibly “voluntold” into national service because they are all (according to said elder generation) workshy hooligans. It seems an astonishingly ungrateful way to behave to me.
A big shift is happening in attitudes towards the old. It's unfair to many of them, but they aren't the generation of heroes any more. They are seen as malicious old turds, expecting things from others they never did themselves. And they don't help their own cause.
What? I thought the battle was over whether she'd be standing as an independent? I didn't think this outcome was even on the cards. This sounds, er, bad news for the Labour Party to me.
It's damage limitation on Labour's part tbf. Not their finest hour but most will have forgotten it by next week, never mind July 4th.
I'm going to feel pretty stupid if I'm wrong about this, but I will be shocked if Labour win North East Hampshire. I'm backing the Tories (4/9) and Lib Dems (33-1) with Bet365.
I doubt that. The line does get held somewhere.
The Tories held over 500 council seats earlier this month, even though they got a drubbing.
I just keep looking at some of these places and thinking "no, there's no way they're voting Labour."
Hamble Valley isn't quite the equivalent of the Conservatives winning Bootle, but it's not far off.
Labour haven't bothered or got a poster up in East Hampshire yet.
We've had Tory leaflets though.
I've been driving a little through Hampshire and Sussex a little today, and the only election stuff I saw were Lib Dem orange diamonds, including a cluster of four outside different houses in one village.
Compared to usual, this seems a rather quiescent election so far. But the usual caveat applies: a pseudorandom drive though the countryside does not get brilliant coverage of an area...
They're probably focusing on their targets, which tells you this isn't one.
In 2017GE there was more Labour action up than there is now, which is why everyone got so terribly confused.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
The notional 2019 result for Bicester and Woodstock is 53.4% Con, 26.5% LD, 17.1% Lab.
I think it's worth looking at UNS in national opinion polls as a starting point. At the moment LDs are down nearly 3% on 2019, Lab are up about 12.5%, Con are down 25%. UNS would just about put Labour ahead of the Conservatives with the LDs in a clear 3rd.
The Britain Elects "model" for Bicester looks really strange to me, with the LDs really bucking the national trend of a declining national vote share, and the Lab vote barely up despite taking off nationally.
OK, UNS isn't everything. So let's look at the R&W Blue Wall polling, it's instructive because it's made up of an amalgam of seats in the South where the aggregated vote share from 2019 has the LDs in 2nd place i.e. 2019 was Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 20%. Not that dissimilar to Bicester in 2019 in fact. But what's striking about the Blue Wall polling is that R&W have the change in main parties share much the same as the national share. If anything, Labour are doing slightly better. The latest change on 2019 in the R&W Blue Wall seats is Con -24.7%, LD -4.4%, Lab +13.4%. That is even better for Labour's chances than just applying UNS, with those % changes and you get a result very close to that predicted by Electoral Calculus in Bicester.
So you're right, tactical voting isn't absolutly clear cut, but looking at all that I would give Labour a better chance than the LDs on current national polling.
Except that national polling is not relevant here, or in many other seats.
As I understand it, the Lib Dem strategy is to concentrate on a certain number of seats which they think they can win - as they did in the recent byelections in Chesham, North Shropshire, Somerton & Frome and Tiv & Hon. These are all seats that they will have been working hard for the last couple of years. Electors living in these constituencies will have seen that, and will know who the challenger is.
The problem that Baxter et al have is that they have no idea what is going on on the ground. All they can see is the national picture.
But if the Lib Dems have been working an area well, that will show up in the local elections results.
Imagine a constituency where there are more Lib Dem district councillors than there are Conservative councillors, and not a single Labour district councillor..... And yet dear old Martin Baxter forecasts that the Labour candidate will win this constituency..... They do not have the slightest chance of doing that. Electoral Calculus is rubbish.
I have no idea what seats the Lib Dems are targeting, but it would not surprise me in the least to hear that Bicester was one of them.
Hmm, so it comes down to opinion poll data (eg as analysed by @Wulfrun_Phil and used by Electoral Calculus) versus local election results (as provided by @El_Capitano and apparently used by Britain Elects). Which is more relevant?
1. To what extent do people vote the same way in a general election as they do in a local election? My feeling is they vote quite differently (which would support using Electoral Calculus), but I don't have statistics to base that on. 2. To what extent does the "ground game" make a difference (if it does, a large councillor base would support using Britain Elects)?
My original point remains: someone planning to cast a tactical anti-Con vote can't necessarily know who the challenger is and can't be sure which way to jump.
Comments
Actually on that basis it seems fair…
Essentially a glorified cleaner assigned to uncover (or cover up) really big messes. Often ends in tears, as for example AGs either tell POTUS that what he wants can't happen.
OR even worse, helps them do stuff that should NOT happen. For example, FDR's Attorney General (one of them) who did the legal groundwork for his less-than-politic (to put it mildly) plan to pack the Supreme Court; one of THE great blunders of his administration(s).
Though it's not an exact resemblance.
Rishi Sunak has another car crash collision with a member of the public: a group he is trying to avoid at all costs. Worse it was a young person asking abt compulsory national service asking:
"Why do you hate young people so much?"
https://x.com/GerryHassan/status/1796609485567349025
There will be a strong Green vote but completely safe Lab IMO. I know it well as Foxjr lives there and my Church is there as well as the University.
What do you take me for?
It works. She's great.
But got me thinking.
Who was Corbyn's deputy and were they used at all? Maybe I am being old and forgetful - i seem to have no memory. And I am not going to Google it.
Philip Collins
@PhilipJCollins1
·
11m
What on earth is Sunak visiting Bury for? They have no chance there at all. The real battle is somewhere else.
I voted for Caroline Flint
Obviously Cameron coasted through the whole thing, and his ending was mercifully swift. Johnson is not much given to anguish, I think, but Covid didn't suit him, and he seemed to not understand where it all went wrong.
Sunak has clearly found his time in Number Ten somewhat harrowing, but he gets a middling score due to our top two. I'd actually have Truss next. She certainly plumbed the depths, but you don't have much time for long anguished sleepless nights in 49 days.
So our winner is Theresa May. Forced to rely on the DUP for a majority, who then didn't turn up for her when she needed them, and she had 56 days between the first and second meaningful votes, and plenty of causes for anguish before and after.
Talk about ying and yang. Bloody hell.
Or he's going for a bash on the East Lancashire Railway.
https://landesspiegel.li/2024/05/referendum-gegen-iwf-beitritt-angekuendigt/
You heard it here first on PB!
Maybe they are using local election results, though I can't see where it says so. (Local election vote shares are LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 14%.)
Given the uncertainty, as I said in another post, it wouldn't surprise me if the Economist model was right and it ended up as a Con hold.
Nashy Serves isn't popular with those being forced into it.
Mostly.
But if they're one of their many, many contemporaries who do sod all but believe youngsters should wipe their shitty arses for them, not so much.
Con: 34.5 (-27.7)
LD: 28.6 (+7.5)
Lab: 16.0 (+2.4)
Ref: 12.4 (+12.4)
Electoral Calculus has it:
Lab: 30.8 (+17.5)
Con: 29.7 (-33.0)
LD: 18.5 (-2.3)
Ref: 14.4 (+14.4)
Bet365 reckons Electoral Calculus is closest to the truth. I'm not so sure. Having worked at ONS, which is in Hamble Valley, I think there are some Labour-ish areas, but I think most of it feels like a Lib Dem area.
Edit - which is also indicative of our “record of achievement” culture which makes kids feel forced to do volunteering. Which isn’t the point. It’s not real if you don’t want to do it.
As I understand it, the Lib Dem strategy is to concentrate on a certain number of seats which they think they can win - as they did in the recent byelections in Chesham, North Shropshire, Somerton & Frome and Tiv & Hon. These are all seats that they will have been working hard for the last couple of years. Electors living in these constituencies will have seen that, and will know who the challenger is.
The problem that Baxter et al have is that they have no idea what is going on on the ground. All they can see is the national picture.
But if the Lib Dems have been working an area well, that will show up in the local elections results.
Imagine a constituency where there are more Lib Dem district councillors than there are Conservative councillors, and not a single Labour district councillor..... And yet dear old Martin Baxter forecasts that the Labour candidate will win this constituency..... They do not have the slightest chance of doing that. Electoral Calculus is rubbish.
I have no idea what seats the Lib Dems are targeting, but it would not surprise me in the least to hear that Bicester was one of them.
Labour are nowhere. I’m not aware they have a single councillor at either district or county level. Their local organisation is one very energetic candidate (Isabel Oakeshott’s sister) and a handful of Twitter rampers.
The LibDems run both district (in coalition with Labour and Green for the West Oxon parts, in coalition with Green only for Cherwell) and county (in coalition with the Greens). They made large gains in the district elections one month ago. Their candidate is a local councillor who was Cabinet member for finance on county until stepping down to fight the seat.
In short, Britain Elects is right, and Electoral Crapulous is, as usual, crapulous.
E.g. He has a silly haircut and needs a slap.
If anything it’s slightly affectionate round my way. You wouldn’t say it of someone you actually disliked.
The world of advertising will be waiting with cheque books akimbo
Do you need a slap?
'That Carol Vorderman needs a slap' sounds a bit off.
The cove is magnificent. No noom for me though, it was too busy that day (at the cove, the rest of our walk was pretty quiet).
LibDem 34
Green 4
Labour 0
Conservative 0
And this is the constituency where, I quote, you say “the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems”.
Yes, it’s not quite coterminous. You have two or three Didcot councillors from South Oxfordshire. One of whom is your candidate.
Get out of here.
Ok maybe not...
I've told you what I think to your violence based metaphor. I've never heard it used in daily life.
As one who experienced corporal punishment (not much, but enough) in my own distant youth, personally think its NOT a good thing for anyone to say, be they British or not.
The kid was quite correct - it's not voluntary.
...While 18-year-olds would have a choice in the type of national service they signed up to, participation would not be voluntary - it would be required by law.
No one would go to prison for not taking part, Mr Cleverly said, but there would be non-criminal sanctions for those who refused...
(BBC)
I have occasionally heard it used in cockney gangster caper type movies to mean "beat someone up without killing them".
I'd suggest the latter isn't something to aspire to, either literally or figuratively.
The Tories held over 500 council seats earlier this month, even though they got a drubbing.
It looks weirdly like a rock formation from the bottom of the hill. The upright pinnacles have been like that for centuries.
Hamble Valley isn't quite the equivalent of the Conservatives winning Bootle, but it's not far off.
https://www.teamtalk.com/manchester-united/man-utd-trolled-ludicrous-jadon-sancho-deal-pundits-tells-ratcliffe-agent-needs-a-slap
Man Utd trolled over ‘ludicrous’ Jadon Sancho deal as pundits tell Ratcliffe his ‘agent needs a slap’
Can remember when Americans (not all, but enough) used to talk about how someone "jewed me down" meaning they drove a very hard bargain, if not worse.
One heard a woman I worked with, say that to a coworker. When he objected and pointed out that his wife was Jewish, she was horrified. "Oh, I didn't mean that!"
But of course THAT was what she'd said . . . probably for the last time.
@MichaelRosenYes
·
11h
I don't think the Labour Party would accept me as a member so I'm joining the Tory Party so that I can defect and become a member of the Labour Party that way.
As I said, maybe it's a regional thing? I don't know where either you or Biggles (who first raised it) are from. Maybe it's one of those things which everyone in the North West thinks is universal but turns out not to be (like Tony Wilson or Frank Sidebottom).
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1796629384205393975
Well done her.
Stormy's graphic court statement was funny
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladies_of_Llangollen
We've had Tory leaflets though.
Jesus Christ this site deserves a fucking slap
Compared to usual, this seems a rather quiescent election so far. But the usual caveat applies: a pseudorandom drive though the countryside does not get brilliant coverage of an area...
My two pence worth . It’s not to be taken literally , it just means a good talking to.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1796629384205393975/photo/1
Luke Akehurst must have deleted 37 yrats of photos though!
We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow
asked over 10k people for
@DailyMailUK
who they intended to vote for in the general election.
Seats tally
CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59
Reform: 0
Green: 2
This accounts for tactical voting.
Also the bare ruins of Cluny on a soft summer night if you’re entirely alone have a hint of Le Noom
In 2017GE there was more Labour action up than there is now, which is why everyone got so terribly confused.
1. To what extent do people vote the same way in a general election as they do in a local election? My feeling is they vote quite differently (which would support using Electoral Calculus), but I don't have statistics to base that on.
2. To what extent does the "ground game" make a difference (if it does, a large councillor base would support using Britain Elects)?
My original point remains: someone planning to cast a tactical anti-Con vote can't necessarily know who the challenger is and can't be sure which way to jump.