Polling errors – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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@MonkEmma
Congratulations to the Telegraph for managing to find a private school that’s closing and attempting to to pin it on Labour🙄
But is it true that it’s closing under a Tory government because of a Labour policy that hasn’t happened yet?
Here’s a little 🧵
You decide!
https://x.com/MonkEmma/status/17946613585686078722 -
Yep, it's a really stupid idea. But as Keir Starmer is a socialist, by his own confession, hBig_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
There's a reason the Liberal Democrats haven't followed Starmer off the cliff on this.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The interesting argument here is it is the Guardian not any conservative supporting paperCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
I think this may well be Starmer's first problem
Were it not for their obsessive EU rejoinery my (semi-realistic) preferred outcome of the election would be where they held the balance of power.0 -
Good morning. Tory Majority now 50 on BX.0
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It's poor psephology to identify any GE as being more "true" than any other. They are all sui generisHeathener said:
But that’s the point I was making. It’s just speculation.DavidL said:
It doesn't stop a comfortable Labour victory but it does stop a massacre. Of course, this time it could be different.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
It sort-of has a basis in history although that’s highly selective: 2019 over say 1931, 1945, or 1997.
As some of you may recall, I’ve argued that 2019 was a unique set of circumstances and a VERY bad baseline to use if you are betting money. It was ‘almost’ a referendum on Get Brexit Done following a remainer Parliament that made even me exasperated.
Go back to 2017 or 2015 which were true General Elections.
It’s really poor psephology to use 2019.1 -
May be that’s another reason for the election date - focuses parents’ minds on consequences of Labour’s policyBig_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
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Most papers with pretentions to being interesting will print contrary views. In the Graun's case, Simon Jenkins is normally their tame right winger.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not what the Guardian is sayingRatters said:
There are fewer and fewer children each year right now. Down 17% in England and Wales from 2012 to 2022. And that trend is set to continue.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Given the small percentage of the population in private schools, even with a fall in private school numbers, existing state schools should easily be able to absorb the slack. So no increase in cost from the current position, and an increase in tax revenue.
Demographics on Labour's side here.
But I'm not sure the article says what you wish. No, the author doesn't like the Labour plan. But he wants the same money spent on full-fee bursaries for poor kids. So parents paying will be lumbered with a similar bill.
So something like the old Assisted Places. Which a distinguished headmaster (can't remember who, it mentioned was here over the weekend) described as solving the problem of a hundred hungry children by taking one of them for a meal at the Savoy.0 -
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x1 -
With all due respect, I’ll take Stefano Pessina’s word over yoursydoethur said:
https://www.boots.jobs/pharmacy/healthcare-support/StillWaters said:
Boots nurses were once voted as the UK’s most trusted healthcare professionalsNigelb said:
Sounds worth a visit - though this raised a smile.Heathener said:
Do you have a spare couple of hours for the Miniature Museum? Took my son there a few years ago and it’s wonderful.Alanbrooke said:Greetings from Hamburg
Germany’s No.1 rated tourist attraction, amazingly.
(you may already know it)
...In the summer of 2000, Frederik Braun, one of the two founders of Miniatur Wunderland, was on vacation in Zurich. In a local model train store he came up with the idea for the world's largest model railway. Back in Hamburg, he searched for email addresses online and started a survey on the popularity of real and fictional sights of the city. In the process, the Miniatur Wunderland, which did not yet exist, was
ranked 3 by male respondents...
Except they don’t exist…0 -
But we're not talking about Truss. We're not talking about who will replace Sunak as PM in a couple of years if the Tories stay in government, and who will replace them. We're not talking about the tax thresholds that are being frozen for a decade. We're not talking about NHS waiting lists. We're not talking about the housing crisis. We're not talking about Conservative Prime Ministers promising to restrict net migration to tens of thousands and failing so badly on that policy that met migration was about 1.4 million over two years.Scott_xP said:
For limited definitions of "working"LostPassword said:
How many days have we been talking about it now? It's a stunt that is working.TimS said:
I’d call it half-baked policy dropped out of the blue in an election campaign that’s not been properly thought through and is, essentially, a stunt.Farooq said:I wouldn't call it forced labour. Forced labour usually doesn't involve punishing your relatives too. This is something worse.
Yes, everybody is talking about it.
And they all think it's shit
So, talking about an anodyne policy about increasing volunteering is a major win in terms of directing public debate.0 -
"Optics" is why our governance is so bad, and there is no sign of this changing under Labour.Scott_xP said:I think this is true
@paulhutcheon
Private school moaning and carping is in overdrive on Labour’s policy to impose VAT on school fees.
Labour will be delighted with the optics of the top 5pc in society demanding their tax breaks are maintained.
It's actually the other way round: the 90% should be demanding that their tax breaks are maintained, because they won't be with this policy.
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Mr Rae of Westminster.Stuartinromford said:
Most papers with pretentions to being interesting will print contrary views. In the Graun's case, Simon Jenkins is normally their tame right winger.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not what the Guardian is sayingRatters said:
There are fewer and fewer children each year right now. Down 17% in England and Wales from 2012 to 2022. And that trend is set to continue.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Given the small percentage of the population in private schools, even with a fall in private school numbers, existing state schools should easily be able to absorb the slack. So no increase in cost from the current position, and an increase in tax revenue.
Demographics on Labour's side here.
But I'm not sure the article says what you wish. No, the author doesn't like the Labour plan. But he wants the same money spent on full-fee bursaries for poor kids. So parents paying will be lumbered with a similar bill.
So something like the old Assisted Places. Which a distinguished headmaster (can't remember who, it mentioned was here over the weekend) described as solving the problem of a hundred hungry children by taking one of them for a meal at the Savoy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/john-rae-433546.html1 -
I wasn't relying on any particular result but what I would say is that in 2019 the majority of the don't knows who voted were probably Labour supporters, appalled by Corbyn. And yet, come the day, the majority of them who voted probably voted Labour. We certainly saw that in 2017.Heathener said:
But that’s the point I was making. It’s just speculation.DavidL said:
It doesn't stop a comfortable Labour victory but it does stop a massacre. Of course, this time it could be different.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
It sort-of has a basis in history although that’s highly selective: 2019 over say 1931, 1945, or 1997.
As some of you may recall, I’ve argued that 2019 was a unique set of circumstances and a VERY bad baseline to use if you are betting money. It was ‘almost’ a referendum on Get Brexit Done following a remainer Parliament that made even me exasperated.
Go back to 2017 or 2015 which were true General Elections.
It’s really poor psephology to use 2019.
It is the underlying explanation for swing back. The habit of voting for a particular party is not an easy one to break no matter how much they upset you between elections. Our voting patterns may be becoming more volatile and I agree with you that the 2019 coalition created by Boris did contain quite a number of non traditional Tories who are not coming back, hence the large Labour leads.
My guess, FWIW, is that this tendency will put the Tories in the very low 30s and Labour in the very low 40s which will give Labour an easy win.1 -
Yet another hole for "compulsory volunteering" to fill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew1 -
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...1 -
Of course! But it IS goodwill - they are not contractually bound to do so. Indeed, safety dictates that sufficient breaks are mandatory whether they want to work certain days or not.JosiasJessop said:
It's not just 'goodwill' - they earn for the extra hours on rest day working. Many drivers like that extra money.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
This is the point. The industry decided that it is better not to hire sufficient staff and instead to work the insufficient staff harder. There is a cost in overtime but that is operational cost and not overheads. So the service - which operators are mandated to provide - can only be delivered via the goodwill of staff working overtime on rest days.
It isn't sustainable.3 -
Nope. Not true. In fact, exceptionally not true.megasaur said:
It's poor psephology to identify any GE as being more "true" than any other. They are all sui generisHeathener said:
But that’s the point I was making. It’s just speculation.DavidL said:
It doesn't stop a comfortable Labour victory but it does stop a massacre. Of course, this time it could be different.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
It sort-of has a basis in history although that’s highly selective: 2019 over say 1931, 1945, or 1997.
As some of you may recall, I’ve argued that 2019 was a unique set of circumstances and a VERY bad baseline to use if you are betting money. It was ‘almost’ a referendum on Get Brexit Done following a remainer Parliament that made even me exasperated.
Go back to 2017 or 2015 which were true General Elections.
It’s really poor psephology to use 2019.
Boris ran 2019 on a unique ticket and set of circumstances with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done.’
In my lifetime there has never been such a single-focused General Election.
I’m sorry you don’t see or understand this.0 -
Me too, I think The Monk by the Sea is one of the most remarkable paintings of the C19th. Some great Friedrichs in Dresden, being in the early stages of COVID only slightly dented my enjoyment of them. Being mildly feverish possibly added to the experience..Ghedebrav said:
Enjoy - I’m an enormous fan of Caspar David Friedrich; romanticism in general really but he has that indefinable greatness that elevates.Alanbrooke said:
No I will be heading for the Kunsthalle. They have a collection of Caspar David Friedrich who I enjoy. In June it will be Blake.Heathener said:
Do you have a spare couple of hours for the Miniature Museum? Took my son there a few years ago and it’s wonderful.Alanbrooke said:Greetings from Hamburg
Germany’s No.1 rated tourist attraction, amazingly.
(you may already know it)0 -
This is trueLostPassword said:We're not talking about the tax thresholds that are being frozen for a decade. We're not talking about NHS waiting lists. We're not talking about the housing crisis.
@RishiSunak
We will always protect pensioners.
@jessphillips
Met two yesterday who told me they waited 20+ hours in A&E last week. Also another who when I knocked thought I was the ambulance they had called arriving, I wasn't, it didn't come for another hour.0 -
Yes, they want the Surrey vote, where there are more private schools than any other county.Casino_Royale said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
There's a reason the Liberal Democrats haven't followed Starmer off the cliff on this.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The interesting argument here is it is the Guardian not any conservative supporting paperCasino_Royale said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
I think this may well be Starmer's first problem
.
You clearly have a very big personal vested interest so when you say, ‘it’s a bad idea’ what you mean is, ‘it’s a bad idea for me and my children’
Nothing wrong with that, but let’s not pretend otherwise.0 -
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares0 -
The Tory admission that they have failed to tackle over £80bn of tax avoidance since they took power is an interesting one.2
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No idea who Stefano Pessina is, and I have no doubt s/he is an honourable person, but I was quoting Boots themselves in saying they employ nurses.StillWaters said:
With all due respect, I’ll take Stefano Pessina’s word over yoursydoethur said:
https://www.boots.jobs/pharmacy/healthcare-support/StillWaters said:
Boots nurses were once voted as the UK’s most trusted healthcare professionalsNigelb said:
Sounds worth a visit - though this raised a smile.Heathener said:
Do you have a spare couple of hours for the Miniature Museum? Took my son there a few years ago and it’s wonderful.Alanbrooke said:Greetings from Hamburg
Germany’s No.1 rated tourist attraction, amazingly.
(you may already know it)
...In the summer of 2000, Frederik Braun, one of the two founders of Miniatur Wunderland, was on vacation in Zurich. In a local model train store he came up with the idea for the world's largest model railway. Back in Hamburg, he searched for email addresses online and started a survey on the popularity of real and fictional sights of the city. In the process, the Miniatur Wunderland, which did not yet exist, was
ranked 3 by male respondents...
Except they don’t exist…
I've no idea why they would be the country's most respected healthcare professionals either, but they do at least exist.0 -
They do. Lots of us like doing paid overtime. But there are times when it's either impossible or it imposes extra stress that over time burns people out and they don't want to or can't do it any more. Or an employer treats you badly in other ways and you say "no".JosiasJessop said:
It's not just 'goodwill' - they earn for the extra hours on rest day working. Many drivers like that extra money.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
Point is, companies aiming to run their basic services relying on their staff going beyond agreed norms and T&Cs is asking for trouble. That's what a number of train co's have done. It's also worth noting that running the bare minimum of staff creates another problem in that any significant delay on the network that put drivers/guards in the wrong place to where they are supposed to be create unnecessary knock on delays as there's then not the staff in place to run other trains.1 -
Malmesbury's comments on the myth of 99% efficient usage of staff in the NHS etc. would seem to apply.RochdalePioneers said:
Of course! But it IS goodwill - they are not contractually bound to do so. Indeed, safety dictates that sufficient breaks are mandatory whether they want to work certain days or not.JosiasJessop said:
It's not just 'goodwill' - they earn for the extra hours on rest day working. Many drivers like that extra money.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
This is the point. The industry decided that it is better not to hire sufficient staff and instead to work the insufficient staff harder. There is a cost in overtime but that is operational cost and not overheads. So the service - which operators are mandated to provide - can only be delivered via the goodwill of staff working overtime on rest days.
It isn't sustainable.
Quitde ironic really that Mr Sunak has been chuntering on about resilience of late.0 -
A reminder to Lord Hayward - in 2017 and 2010, Labour polled better than the polls had been suggesting. So it's not all one way traffic. Pollsters do adjust their methodology and sometimes seem to over adjust especially where they are trying to make their poll into a prediction rather than just a test of opinion.
My experience from doorstep canvassing is that an extraordinary number of former Conservative voters when pressed say that they won't vote at all. For those who are not going to vote Labour the conversation still very often tends to progress along lines of "well I just don't know what I'm going to do this time" but ends up when pressed with "to be honest I'll probably end up not voting at all, they're all as bad as each other". Are the polls recording the former without progressing to the reality of the latter?
What we can say about current polling is that in an election which is widely forecast to have a low turnout there are an unduly high number of respondents who claim that they are going to vote. I certainly think the "don't vote" party is being underestimated in polling and a lot of those will come from the undecided camp.
One other point: If out of all the current undecided, 25% break for the Conservatives (which isn't unrealistic when only 25% of the decideds have choosen the Conservatives), 25% break for Labour, 20% for others and 30% dont vote, then the Labour lead in percentage terms will narrow. But in terms of the absolute difference between Labour and Conservative voters it will be unchanged.
I am not being overly complacent, for the lousy state of the electoral register this time does give cause for concern, although it would have been a lot worse had Sunak chosen November.
2 -
They do, but there's a difference between agreeing to work overtime with some advance notice, and having made plans for your day off and receiving a call in the morning, "Can you work today to cover a sick absence?"JosiasJessop said:
It's not just 'goodwill' - they earn for the extra hours on rest day working. Many drivers like that extra money.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
That's the scenario where goodwill comes more into play.0 -
@DPJHodges
We'll see a narrative developing soon that Keir Starmer can't continue with his safety first strategy, and has to set out a clear vision of what he wants to do in office. I thought that once. But I'll be honest, I don't think it's true now. Safety first is working fine for him.2 -
Whereas May's dementia tax proposal in 2017 recurs in every Tory manifesto since 1900.Heathener said:
Nope. Not true. In fact, exceptionally not true.megasaur said:
It's poor psephology to identify any GE as being more "true" than any other. They are all sui generisHeathener said:
But that’s the point I was making. It’s just speculation.DavidL said:
It doesn't stop a comfortable Labour victory but it does stop a massacre. Of course, this time it could be different.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
It sort-of has a basis in history although that’s highly selective: 2019 over say 1931, 1945, or 1997.
As some of you may recall, I’ve argued that 2019 was a unique set of circumstances and a VERY bad baseline to use if you are betting money. It was ‘almost’ a referendum on Get Brexit Done following a remainer Parliament that made even me exasperated.
Go back to 2017 or 2015 which were true General Elections.
It’s really poor psephology to use 2019.
Boris ran 2019 on a unique ticket and set of circumstances with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done.’
In my lifetime there has never been such a single-focused General Election.
I’m sorry you don’t see or understand this.
Don't be silly0 -
We aren't saying we should rejoin the EU though. The furthest extent of our four stage plan is to rejoin the single market, but even that is "like Norway" and not "rejoin the EU".Casino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really stupid idea. But as Keir Starmer is a socialist, by his own confession, hBig_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
There's a reason the Liberal Democrats haven't followed Starmer off the cliff on this.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The interesting argument here is it is the Guardian not any conservative supporting paperCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
I think this may well be Starmer's first problem
Were it not for their obsessive EU rejoinery my (semi-realistic) preferred outcome of the election would be where they held the balance of power.
Brexit is done - we left. What we need to do is fix the damage done since we left, but rejoin isn't on anyone's agenda.0 -
If the alternative is not having enough train drivers, isn't that just things costing what they cost?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares
There's a famous Conservative Prime Minister who had something to say about trying to buck the market.3 -
I bet Rishi wishes he could dissolve the people and elect another.Benpointer said:
Yes, get Brecht done - that was The Decision.eek said:
It’s why I don’t think those don’t knows break for the Tory party the way they would do in prior elections. 2019’was get Brecht done, it’s now been implemented and no one likes the end result..Benpointer said:
Further counter argument - a lot of the Tory 2019 vote was either 'get Brexit done', anti-Corbyn, or 'give Boris a go'. None of these factors apply now.eek said:Counter argument - we don’t know how efficient the anti- Tory vote will be and we have little guarantee that Tory voters will come out and actually vote
Apart from some very generous odds on less than 50 Tory seats at the moment I’m going to sit this election out.
What I’m curious about is the 165 seat max claim - was thinking the range was 20-200 so where does the 165 point come from
Having said that, I do wake up in a cold sweat that somehow the Tories pull this off. If they do - I'm giving up, sod it, th country will deserve all it gets.
Which is why I went for Tories less than 50 seats. It’s not likely to happen but it’s more likely than the 4% chance the odds suggested.,0 -
You are entirely right.eek said:
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...
But point 1 has only just started to bite for primary schools, and hasn't yet for secondary ones.
The implication is a lot of private schools will close and Labour's VAT policy may get the blame politically once in power.
That's an issue for a future election not this one, but it's fairly predictable how it'll play out.0 -
Swingback assumes that the 2019 election and electorate was a normal electorate. But the Tory vote containedDavidL said:
I wasn't relying on any particular result but what I would say is that in 2019 the majority of the don't knows who voted were probably Labour supporters, appalled by Corbyn. And yet, come the day, the majority of them who voted probably voted Labour. We certainly saw that in 2017.Heathener said:
But that’s the point I was making. It’s just speculation.DavidL said:
It doesn't stop a comfortable Labour victory but it does stop a massacre. Of course, this time it could be different.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
It sort-of has a basis in history although that’s highly selective: 2019 over say 1931, 1945, or 1997.
As some of you may recall, I’ve argued that 2019 was a unique set of circumstances and a VERY bad baseline to use if you are betting money. It was ‘almost’ a referendum on Get Brexit Done following a remainer Parliament that made even me exasperated.
Go back to 2017 or 2015 which were true General Elections.
It’s really poor psephology to use 2019.
It is the underlying explanation for swing back. The habit of voting for a particular party is not an easy one to break no matter how much they upset you between elections. Our voting patterns may be becoming more volatile and I agree with you that the 2019 coalition created by Boris did contain quite a number of non traditional Tories who are not coming back, hence the large Labour leads.
My guess, FWIW, is that this tendency will put the Tories in the very low 30s and Labour in the very low 40s which will give Labour an easy win.
1) We want Brexit done voters
2) Voters attracted to Bozo the clown
3) Anti-Corbyn labour / lib dem voters
There is zero chance those voters are going to swing back to the Tory party because most of them were never really Tory voters.
So we are then left with the question which pollsters have the Tory party at the correct percentage. Are those on 20% really out of step with those who say the Tories are on 27% or is the reality the 27% crew have got swingback correct already and 27% is the Tory high water mark..1 -
I can't imagine pay is the problem with train drivers. They're paid an absolute fortune. Indeed, I imagine that's why they're not bothered about overtime.Stuartinromford said:
If the alternative is not having enough train drivers, isn't that just things costing what they cost?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares
There's a famous Conservative Prime Minister who had something to say about trying to buck the market.
There must be another bottleneck somewhere.0 -
All those Don't Knows who are pensioners will be flooding back for their quadruple lock.
What a country.0 -
Must be raining then. If that's wehat floats your boat try the erotica museum. Model railways!Alanbrooke said:
I'm working atm in the harbour. Down by the dockside but cant see any of @TSE lady friends.Foxy said:
A lovely city. Red squirrels everywhere in the botanic gardens and very moving and even handed memorial to the bombing victims in the basement of the St Nikolai Kirche.Alanbrooke said:Greetings from Hamburg
0 -
Anyway no we won't. You can't just "anyway I am right" the debate. When you've just had your argument pulled apart.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares2 -
I fear that argument's false. Rest-day working has been around for donkey's years, and I can't think of an incident caused by it. AIUI RDW does *not* affect the amount of rest a driver should get between shifts (what ?used? to be called the HIDDEN rules).Carnyx said:
Safety, too, ultimately. Work people too often on rest days ...RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
Fatigue has caused train incidents, but often that fatigue was down to other causes. e.g. https://www.gov.uk/raib-reports/report-08-slash-2023-collision-between-two-freight-trains-at-loversall-carr-junction0 -
"At the heart of Conservatism is a belief in dignity in retirement"
Laura Trott.
LOL.
0 -
Wages are an insignificant percentage of the cost of the UK's train service. I'm sure I've pointed out before that the £600 a shift (overtime rate for an Avanti driver) is covered by the first 6 passengers on the train...Big_G_NorthWales said:
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares6 -
the shy Tory model is alive and kicking and one that should occupy strategists both in Labour and Conservative (and LDs even). Such voters IMO drove the BREXIT success in 2016 and the demolition of the LDs in 2015, hard to reach and often not ones to offer up opinions.... I dont think RS has made a good start but they could save several dozen Tory MPs esp in the SE0
-
NoM is available at 8/1. If you think it’s very likely, you’ll want to snap that up.algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.1 -
Yes. If you want a train service that will run the published timetable, instead of cancelling trains because not enough money was spent on employing enough drivers, then that might cost a bit more money. Shocker.Stuartinromford said:
If the alternative is not having enough train drivers, isn't that just things costing what they cost?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares
There's a famous Conservative Prime Minister who had something to say about trying to buck the market.0 -
Also train drivers can't drink x hours before starting work - so any call to do a shift this morning would have been met with can't I wasn't expecting to work so had a drink..LostPassword said:
They do, but there's a difference between agreeing to work overtime with some advance notice, and having made plans for your day off and receiving a call in the morning, "Can you work today to cover a sick absence?"JosiasJessop said:
It's not just 'goodwill' - they earn for the extra hours on rest day working. Many drivers like that extra money.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
That's the scenario where goodwill comes more into play.4 -
YouGov recently. Of the 2019 Tory voters 19% were for Reform and 19% DK. In 2019 Tories got 14m votes. 38%of 14 m is 5.3 million.Foxy said:
Where do you get your 5 million ex Tory DK and Reform voters?algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.
It looks more like 1.7 million DK and a further 1.7 million Reform, 0.5 million will not vote and 1.2 million Deceased on these figures from January:
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1745742534104535306?t=yC34sKa4LohRAFoaEdXcFA&s=19
Of course it serves everyone to take up a close race, Tories, Labour, pollsters and pundits.
But what if it isn't, and the polling is right? 1992 is a long time ago, and since then polls have been more accurate.
Data set here:
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf
And, yes, I think that Tory seats will be between 35 and 290, with the upper end more probable than the lower end. The lower end would suit me, as the Tory party needs to start again on a chastened foundation.
0 -
My Trust had just restricted various forms of overtime for financial reasons.MJW said:
They do. Lots of us like doing paid overtime. But there are times when it's either impossible or it imposes extra stress that over time burns people out and they don't want to or can't do it any more. Or an employer treats you badly in other ways and you say "no".JosiasJessop said:
It's not just 'goodwill' - they earn for the extra hours on rest day working. Many drivers like that extra money.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
Point is, companies aiming to run their basic services relying on their staff going beyond agreed norms and T&Cs is asking for trouble. That's what a number of train co's have done. It's also worth noting that running the bare minimum of staff creates another problem in that any significant delay on the network that put drivers/guards in the wrong place to where they are supposed to be create unnecessary knock on delays as there's then not the staff in place to run other trains.
Expect waiting lists to grow and targets to be missed.1 -
I did say, 'ultimately': RDW isn't something we should be relying on routinely, as it reduces the barrier to fatigue from other causes (child's illness, delays en route, etc.).JosiasJessop said:
I fear that argument's false. Rest-day working has been around for donkey's years, and I can't think of an incident caused by it. AIUI RDW does *not* affect the amount of rest a driver should get between shifts (what ?used? to be called the HIDDEN rules).Carnyx said:
Safety, too, ultimately. Work people too often on rest days ...RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
Fatigue has caused train incidents, but often that fatigue was down to other causes. e.g. https://www.gov.uk/raib-reports/report-08-slash-2023-collision-between-two-freight-trains-at-loversall-carr-junction
Excess overtime has been a problem in some areas of the industry at some times. Signalling engineers for instance.0 -
Is that adjusted for Deceased?algarkirk said:
YouGov recently. Of the 2019 Tory voters 19% were for Reform and 19% DK. In 2019 Tories got 14m votes. 38%of 14 m is 5.3 million.Foxy said:
Where do you get your 5 million ex Tory DK and Reform voters?algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.
It looks more like 1.7 million DK and a further 1.7 million Reform, 0.5 million will not vote and 1.2 million Deceased on these figures from January:
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1745742534104535306?t=yC34sKa4LohRAFoaEdXcFA&s=19
Of course it serves everyone to take up a close race, Tories, Labour, pollsters and pundits.
But what if it isn't, and the polling is right? 1992 is a long time ago, and since then polls have been more accurate.
Data set here:
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf0 -
One thing to consider, and I have no idea the effect, is the difficulty of weighting and adjusting to 2019 voting when that coalition of voters were not natural bedfellows nor 'reliable tories', and factoring in 2017 doesn't help as the corbynistas were just as weird a collective. 2015 is the last normalcy Norman election1
-
(whispers quietly) Second jobs have been a bigger problem...Carnyx said:
I did say, 'ultimately': RDW isn't something we should be relying on routinely, as it reduces the barrier to fatigue from other causes (child's illness, delays en route, etc.).JosiasJessop said:
I fear that argument's false. Rest-day working has been around for donkey's years, and I can't think of an incident caused by it. AIUI RDW does *not* affect the amount of rest a driver should get between shifts (what ?used? to be called the HIDDEN rules).Carnyx said:
Safety, too, ultimately. Work people too often on rest days ...RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
Fatigue has caused train incidents, but often that fatigue was down to other causes. e.g. https://www.gov.uk/raib-reports/report-08-slash-2023-collision-between-two-freight-trains-at-loversall-carr-junction
Excess overtime has been a problem in some areas of the industry at some times. Signalling engineers for instance.0 -
Pass me the sick bag !rottenborough said:"At the heart of Conservatism is a belief in dignity in retirement"
Laura Trott.
LOL.0 -
Surely @TSE's friends are in St Pauli not on the physical dockside?Roger said:
Must be raining then. If that's wehat floats your boat try the erotica museum. Model railways!Alanbrooke said:
I'm working atm in the harbour. Down by the dockside but cant see any of @TSE lady friends.Foxy said:
A lovely city. Red squirrels everywhere in the botanic gardens and very moving and even handed memorial to the bombing victims in the basement of the St Nikolai Kirche.Alanbrooke said:Greetings from Hamburg
0 -
Oh I know Labour will get the blame once it's in power and the policy has been implemented my point through out this was more that CR has been sold a lie and is believing it..Ratters said:
You are entirely right.eek said:
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...
But point 1 has only just started to bite for primary schools, and hasn't yet for secondary ones.
The implication is a lot of private schools will close and Labour's VAT policy may get the blame politically once in power.
That's an issue for a future election not this one, but it's fairly predictable how it'll play out.
Everything about the announcement in his case was points 1 and 2 have occurred but thankfully here's reason 3 which I can use to say it's none of our (management, parents) faults. Otherwise you would have the couple of parents leaving because of point 2 thinking it was their fault the school was closing...
0 -
Good question, but the 38% figure will include few actually dead people. And the real figure is still millions - the sorts of numbers that change elections.Foxy said:
Is that adjusted for Deceased?algarkirk said:
YouGov recently. Of the 2019 Tory voters 19% were for Reform and 19% DK. In 2019 Tories got 14m votes. 38%of 14 m is 5.3 million.Foxy said:
Where do you get your 5 million ex Tory DK and Reform voters?algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.
It looks more like 1.7 million DK and a further 1.7 million Reform, 0.5 million will not vote and 1.2 million Deceased on these figures from January:
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1745742534104535306?t=yC34sKa4LohRAFoaEdXcFA&s=19
Of course it serves everyone to take up a close race, Tories, Labour, pollsters and pundits.
But what if it isn't, and the polling is right? 1992 is a long time ago, and since then polls have been more accurate.
Data set here:
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf0 -
Comparse the frothing on here about Labour and nondoms: yeteek said:
Oh I know Labour will get the blame once it's in power and the policy has been implemented my point through out this was more that CR has been sold a lie and is believing it..Ratters said:
You are entirely right.eek said:
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...
But point 1 has only just started to bite for primary schools, and hasn't yet for secondary ones.
The implication is a lot of private schools will close and Labour's VAT policy may get the blame politically once in power.
That's an issue for a future election not this one, but it's fairly predictable how it'll play out.
Everything about the announcement in his case was points 1 and 2 have occurred but thankfully here's reason 3 which I can use to say it's none of our (management, parents) faults. Otherwise you would have the couple of parents leaving because of point 2 thinking it was their fault the school was closing...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/28/billionaire-non-dom-quit-uk-hunt-scrapped-tax-breaks-taxes1 -
If the argument is that reacting to what you see can't be done in time, then that sounds like an argument in favour of abolishing drivers altogether and automating the trains.LostPassword said:
Trains generally go so fast that they can't stop in the distance visible to the driver, so it's kinda important that the driver knows the route, rather than reacting to it as it happens.malcolmg said:
Feck's sake , they don't know how to press a few buttons and turn a wheel , pampered arses right enough. Imagine lorry drivers saying "Sorry Boss I don't know that road". Useless overpaid lazy twats.eek said:
+1 would need to speak to my mate who lives there but I believe that train not working is a regular occurrenceSouthamObserver said:
Crew shortages imply a lack of crew.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Our Canadian daughter in law is travelling to London today and flies to Vancouver tomorrow whilst our son spends a couple of weeks more with us
All Llandudno Junction to Euston trains have been cancelled today due to crew shortages leaving her with no option but take the Manchester Airport train to Chester, then a train to Crewe, then to Euston arriving much later and missing an appointment she had in London today
The railways are truly broken and is Starmer just going to concede all ASLEF's demands reinforcing the view that the unions are holding our railways to ransom
But it’s a staff issue - very few drivers know the route and the train (both of which is required) so it’s possible that a combination of school holidays and someone being ill can knock the early morning train off.
As has been done in many cities around the planet.
Driverless cars aren't a thing because on the roads you need human reactions, but if trains are going too fast to allow human reactions so you need to act sight unseen, then simply abolish the drivers. Problem solved.0 -
I expect the polls following the debates will be the ones to indicate if Sunak has managed a Manchester United style win or Starmer sails serenely on into a massive landslide0
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It's another example of where Labour will get the blame for something the Tories have already spent the cash on...Carnyx said:
Comparse the frothing on here about Labour and nondoms: yeteek said:
Oh I know Labour will get the blame once it's in power and the policy has been implemented my point through out this was more that CR has been sold a lie and is believing it..Ratters said:
You are entirely right.eek said:
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...
But point 1 has only just started to bite for primary schools, and hasn't yet for secondary ones.
The implication is a lot of private schools will close and Labour's VAT policy may get the blame politically once in power.
That's an issue for a future election not this one, but it's fairly predictable how it'll play out.
Everything about the announcement in his case was points 1 and 2 have occurred but thankfully here's reason 3 which I can use to say it's none of our (management, parents) faults. Otherwise you would have the couple of parents leaving because of point 2 thinking it was their fault the school was closing...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/28/billionaire-non-dom-quit-uk-hunt-scrapped-tax-breaks-taxes0 -
Though you probably end up with a similar cost function.eek said:
Oh it is - but you have to be careful with the NHS as training a train driver is rather quicker than a medical consultant.Malmesbury said:
I’ve been trying to find the number for the cost of the use of agency staff etc on the NHS vs having enough staff. I would suspect that it is a serious number of billions.eek said:
Overtime is a personal choice some will grab every penny going others simply won’t no matter how much is being offered.Stuartinromford said:
And that's symptomatic of a wider issue.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
We've gone well past the point of unions holding the public sector to ransom. It's that individual workers are voting with their feet and deciding that they would rather do other things with their time and skills.
I don't know how anyone fixes that, what with there being even less money than the time that there was no money. But foot stamping and saying that people should jolly well take what's on offer doesn't work.
The fix is always to reduce the need for overtime
Part of the problem is the cult of reducing head count. For some reason, in this religion, contract staff at n times the price are invisible or something.4 -
Frankly, that still looks value even allowing for the epochal disaster Rishi Sunak is unfolding before us.bondegezou said:
NoM is available at 8/1. If you think it’s very likely, you’ll want to snap that up.algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.0 -
Sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. The undecideds are giving labour the benefit of the doubt.... That is simply the "change mood." And given the way the tory campaign is unfolding (it will completely implode over the next 6 weeks) - there is simply no good outlook for the right. 6 weeks was chosen because sunak thought labour would trip up.... ohhhhh the hubris. That 6 weeks is going to be an albatross for the coservatives. Look at the personal polling for Starmer and Sunak....
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-sunak-poll-general-election-b2552092.html0 -
Steady on. I picked ManU at 9/1 (IIRC) on Saturday. Lightning doesn't strike twice.bondegezou said:
NoM is available at 8/1. If you think it’s very likely, you’ll want to snap that up.algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.1 -
It's suggesting an 11% possibility. I'd rate it nearer 2%, but if you really think it's value...ydoethur said:
Frankly, that still looks value even allowing for the epochal disaster Rishi Sunak is unfolding before us.bondegezou said:
NoM is available at 8/1. If you think it’s very likely, you’ll want to snap that up.algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.0 -
Obviously intercity routes will be harder to automate than services like the DLR that are automated, but you would think it would be a simpler stepping stone that all the way to driverless cars. It's the sort of thing that a well-resourced, forward-looking railway would be investing in and experimenting with.BartholomewRoberts said:
If the argument is that reacting to what you see can't be done in time, then that sounds like an argument in favour of abolishing drivers altogether and automating the trains.LostPassword said:
Trains generally go so fast that they can't stop in the distance visible to the driver, so it's kinda important that the driver knows the route, rather than reacting to it as it happens.malcolmg said:
Feck's sake , they don't know how to press a few buttons and turn a wheel , pampered arses right enough. Imagine lorry drivers saying "Sorry Boss I don't know that road". Useless overpaid lazy twats.eek said:
+1 would need to speak to my mate who lives there but I believe that train not working is a regular occurrenceSouthamObserver said:
Crew shortages imply a lack of crew.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Our Canadian daughter in law is travelling to London today and flies to Vancouver tomorrow whilst our son spends a couple of weeks more with us
All Llandudno Junction to Euston trains have been cancelled today due to crew shortages leaving her with no option but take the Manchester Airport train to Chester, then a train to Crewe, then to Euston arriving much later and missing an appointment she had in London today
The railways are truly broken and is Starmer just going to concede all ASLEF's demands reinforcing the view that the unions are holding our railways to ransom
But it’s a staff issue - very few drivers know the route and the train (both of which is required) so it’s possible that a combination of school holidays and someone being ill can knock the early morning train off.
As has been done in many cities around the planet.
Driverless cars aren't a thing because on the roads you need human reactions, but if trains are going too fast to allow human reactions so you need to act sight unseen, then simply abolish the drivers. Problem solved.0 -
Labour will have to lose a lot of votes for NoM to be in play - I think even a 2% chance is generous - I can't see SKS generating enough voter scaring policies for it to happen...Peter_the_Punter said:
It's suggesting an 11% possibility. I'd rate it nearer 2%, but if you really think it's value...ydoethur said:
Frankly, that still looks value even allowing for the epochal disaster Rishi Sunak is unfolding before us.bondegezou said:
NoM is available at 8/1. If you think it’s very likely, you’ll want to snap that up.algarkirk said:
There is a bizarre variation in reasoned accounts that can be given of Tory seats in July. The case can be properly made for about 35, and the case (which I prefer factually but not politically) can be made for up to about 290.Heathener said:Lord Hayward may well be right, although the following two statements (four if you permit replays) don’t inspire confidence that this is based on anything other than a hunch:
'I do believe the ‘don’t knows’ will vote in fairly large numbers, and the indications from local council results is that they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
There’s no indication from the local council results of anything firm at national level and there’s no evidence that can be pulled out to show ‘they are beginning to break towards the Conservatives.’
And secondly, the ‘I believe’ comment shows that this isn’t based in evidence.
His belief may be right. It may not be.
Even when he repeats himself
The biggest difference in about ex-Tory DKs and ex-Tory Reform preferences. Together they are 38% approx of 2019 Tory voters. That is 5 million voters. The gap between Con and Lab in 2019 was 3.5 million voters.
If about a third of this group vote Tory in July, the Tories will do OK, though hopefully not win.
I still think NoM is very likely.0 -
At least overtime for existing staff is cheaper than paying TrainDriversRUs to send someone round, and crossing fingers they know not to go too fast over that tricky junction at Peterborough if diverted one way.Malmesbury said:
Though you probably end up with a similar cost function.eek said:
Oh it is - but you have to be careful with the NHS as training a train driver is rather quicker than a medical consultant.Malmesbury said:
I’ve been trying to find the number for the cost of the use of agency staff etc on the NHS vs having enough staff. I would suspect that it is a serious number of billions.eek said:
Overtime is a personal choice some will grab every penny going others simply won’t no matter how much is being offered.Stuartinromford said:
And that's symptomatic of a wider issue.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
We've gone well past the point of unions holding the public sector to ransom. It's that individual workers are voting with their feet and deciding that they would rather do other things with their time and skills.
I don't know how anyone fixes that, what with there being even less money than the time that there was no money. But foot stamping and saying that people should jolly well take what's on offer doesn't work.
The fix is always to reduce the need for overtime
Part of the problem is the cult of reducing head count. For some reason, in this religion, contract staff at n times the price are invisible or something.
0 -
Drivers having route restrictions isn't bizarre -- it's necessary for safety, because you need to be able to anticipate what's coming up, know the braking points, and so on. So drivers can only drive routes they have current knowledge for. The question then is where you set the balance on how many different routes any particular driver is current on. It costs money to have drivers current on a route (training time is time they aren't driving), but if you try to absolutely minimise it then you have lousy operational flexibility when things go wrong. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the DfT and/or TOCs were being too cheeseparing.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.
2 -
Definitely finding the same thing on the doorstep.Wulfrun_Phil said:A reminder to Lord Hayward - in 2017 and 2010, Labour polled better than the polls had been suggesting. So it's not all one way traffic. Pollsters do adjust their methodology and sometimes seem to over adjust especially where they are trying to make their poll into a prediction rather than just a test of opinion.
My experience from doorstep canvassing is that an extraordinary number of former Conservative voters when pressed say that they won't vote at all. For those who are not going to vote Labour the conversation still very often tends to progress along lines of "well I just don't know what I'm going to do this time" but ends up when pressed with "to be honest I'll probably end up not voting at all, they're all as bad as each other". Are the polls recording the former without progressing to the reality of the latter?
What we can say about current polling is that in an election which is widely forecast to have a low turnout there are an unduly high number of respondents who claim that they are going to vote. I certainly think the "don't vote" party is being underestimated in polling and a lot of those will come from the undecided camp.
One other point: If out of all the current undecided, 25% break for the Conservatives (which isn't unrealistic when only 25% of the decideds have choosen the Conservatives), 25% break for Labour, 20% for others and 30% dont vote, then the Labour lead in percentage terms will narrow. But in terms of the absolute difference between Labour and Conservative voters it will be unchanged.
I am not being overly complacent, for the lousy state of the electoral register this time does give cause for concern, although it would have been a lot worse had Sunak chosen November.
As the legendary Yes PM sketch stated, people don't like to look foolish when questioned. Saying that you 'don't know' makes you seem intelligent and considering all the options. By contrast, saying 'won't vote' makes it look as if you don't care.
My hunch, equally valid and as prone to error as Lord Hayward, is that most of the 'Don't Knows' will spend a happy polling day in their lounge and not give the election another thought.0 -
6 weeks was chosen as the law requires it.Cleitophon said:Sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. The undecideds are giving labour the benefit of the doubt.... That is simply the "change mood." And given the way the tory campaign is unfolding (it will completely implode over the next 6 weeks) - there is simply no good outlook for the right. 6 weeks was chosen because sunak thought labour would trip up.... ohhhhh the hubris. That 6 weeks is going to be an albatross for the coservatives.
0 -
Amidst all the people who don't understand politics creaming themselves on social media over 'Canada '93'! What do people actually consider a Canada 93 style result to be? 2 seats? Third in seats? Under 20?0
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This is a bit like the argument Britain's relative decline has nothing to do with Brexit. There may be other factors involved and those factors may or may not be more important. The fact is the camel's back was broken. People are bound to blame the straw that was added as the back broke. Particularly when loading the straw was a choice.Scott_xP said:@MonkEmma
Congratulations to the Telegraph for managing to find a private school that’s closing and attempting to to pin it on Labour🙄
But is it true that it’s closing under a Tory government because of a Labour policy that hasn’t happened yet?
Here’s a little 🧵
You decide!
https://x.com/MonkEmma/status/1794661358568607872
You might be in favour of VAT on school fees as a policy choice. If so, please understand the policy will be blamed for any private schools that close from now on.1 -
Show me any automated train system in the world that does not run on complete segregated tracks (either underground or above ground).BartholomewRoberts said:
If the argument is that reacting to what you see can't be done in time, then that sounds like an argument in favour of abolishing drivers altogether and automating the trains.LostPassword said:
Trains generally go so fast that they can't stop in the distance visible to the driver, so it's kinda important that the driver knows the route, rather than reacting to it as it happens.malcolmg said:
Feck's sake , they don't know how to press a few buttons and turn a wheel , pampered arses right enough. Imagine lorry drivers saying "Sorry Boss I don't know that road". Useless overpaid lazy twats.eek said:
+1 would need to speak to my mate who lives there but I believe that train not working is a regular occurrenceSouthamObserver said:
Crew shortages imply a lack of crew.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Our Canadian daughter in law is travelling to London today and flies to Vancouver tomorrow whilst our son spends a couple of weeks more with us
All Llandudno Junction to Euston trains have been cancelled today due to crew shortages leaving her with no option but take the Manchester Airport train to Chester, then a train to Crewe, then to Euston arriving much later and missing an appointment she had in London today
The railways are truly broken and is Starmer just going to concede all ASLEF's demands reinforcing the view that the unions are holding our railways to ransom
But it’s a staff issue - very few drivers know the route and the train (both of which is required) so it’s possible that a combination of school holidays and someone being ill can knock the early morning train off.
As has been done in many cities around the planet.
Driverless cars aren't a thing because on the roads you need human reactions, but if trains are going too fast to allow human reactions so you need to act sight unseen, then simply abolish the drivers. Problem solved.
You can build a new system to be automated - what you can't do is convert existing ones - it ends up costing the same or more, which is why you end up with lines like Victoria where the driver does not drive the train, mostly does other things but can drive the train if needed.0 -
the law simply says: "Parliament has to be dissolved 25 working days before polling day."BartholomewRoberts said:
6 weeks was chosen as the law requires it.Cleitophon said:Sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. The undecideds are giving labour the benefit of the doubt.... That is simply the "change mood." And given the way the tory campaign is unfolding (it will completely implode over the next 6 weeks) - there is simply no good outlook for the right. 6 weeks was chosen because sunak thought labour would trip up.... ohhhhh the hubris. That 6 weeks is going to be an albatross for the coservatives.
There are any number of ways that can be set up1 -
Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.2 -
The obsessive rejoinery where Ed Davey didn't even mention Europe in his first 4 set-piece speeches as leader to LD Conference?Casino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really stupid idea. But as Keir Starmer is a socialist, by his own confession, hBig_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
There's a reason the Liberal Democrats haven't followed Starmer off the cliff on this.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The interesting argument here is it is the Guardian not any conservative supporting paperCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
I think this may well be Starmer's first problem
Were it not for their obsessive EU rejoinery my (semi-realistic) preferred outcome of the election would be where they held the balance of power.5 -
He was too late for June 27 and the next Thursday was July 4 and they needed two days wash up. There's no story to it.Cleitophon said:
the law simply says: "Parliament has to be dissolved 25 working days before polling day."BartholomewRoberts said:
6 weeks was chosen as the law requires it.Cleitophon said:Sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. The undecideds are giving labour the benefit of the doubt.... That is simply the "change mood." And given the way the tory campaign is unfolding (it will completely implode over the next 6 weeks) - there is simply no good outlook for the right. 6 weeks was chosen because sunak thought labour would trip up.... ohhhhh the hubris. That 6 weeks is going to be an albatross for the coservatives.
There are any number of ways that can be set up2 -
As only 5% go to pivate schools I can't see how it would make any difference to anything. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. If the 1 in 20 parents who send their children to private schools think they are stealing a lead on the 19 in 20 who cant afford it then I don't see anything wrong with the state charging them a small premium. Consider it a fine for trying to buy privilege.Casino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.0 -
It's a minimum of five weeks, and then there's a couple of days for washup. The extra few days in this case were because of the looming Whitsun recess.Cleitophon said:
the law simply says: "Parliament has to be dissolved 25 working days before polling day."BartholomewRoberts said:
6 weeks was chosen as the law requires it.Cleitophon said:Sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. The undecideds are giving labour the benefit of the doubt.... That is simply the "change mood." And given the way the tory campaign is unfolding (it will completely implode over the next 6 weeks) - there is simply no good outlook for the right. 6 weeks was chosen because sunak thought labour would trip up.... ohhhhh the hubris. That 6 weeks is going to be an albatross for the coservatives.
There are any number of ways that can be set up
If Sunak was choosing a long election campaign we'd be looking at eight or more weeks, not 43 days.0 -
But that's nobody isn't it? Surely you get some additional benefit on top of 11.5k if you have nothing else?StaffordKnot said:Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.0 -
The non-doms were always going to be taxed this year.Carnyx said:
Comparse the frothing on here about Labour and nondoms: yeteek said:
Oh I know Labour will get the blame once it's in power and the policy has been implemented my point through out this was more that CR has been sold a lie and is believing it..Ratters said:
You are entirely right.eek said:
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...
But point 1 has only just started to bite for primary schools, and hasn't yet for secondary ones.
The implication is a lot of private schools will close and Labour's VAT policy may get the blame politically once in power.
That's an issue for a future election not this one, but it's fairly predictable how it'll play out.
Everything about the announcement in his case was points 1 and 2 have occurred but thankfully here's reason 3 which I can use to say it's none of our (management, parents) faults. Otherwise you would have the couple of parents leaving because of point 2 thinking it was their fault the school was closing...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/28/billionaire-non-dom-quit-uk-hunt-scrapped-tax-breaks-taxes
The only question became who did it and so was able to spend the money.1 -
Only buy the best for your kids if it's trainers or smartphones.Roger said:
As only 5% go to pivate schools I can't see how it would make any difference to anything. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. If the 1 in 20 parents who send their children to private schools think they are stealing a lead on the 19 in 20 who cant afford it then I don't see anything wrong with the state charging them a small premium. Consider it a fine for trying to buy privilege.Casino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.5 -
I have a great deal of sympathy with those who are having to move school. I did so 7 times (all state), mainly due to family circumstance but also a result of rural school closure as populations declined. I would not want to minimise the disruptive impact this has on children.FF43 said:
This is a bit like the argument Britain's relative decline has nothing to do with Brexit. There may be other factors involved and those factors may or may not be more important. The fact is the camel's back was broken. People are bound to blame the straw that was added as the back broke. Particularly when loading the straw was a choice.Scott_xP said:@MonkEmma
Congratulations to the Telegraph for managing to find a private school that’s closing and attempting to to pin it on Labour🙄
But is it true that it’s closing under a Tory government because of a Labour policy that hasn’t happened yet?
Here’s a little 🧵
You decide!
https://x.com/MonkEmma/status/1794661358568607872
You might be in favour of VAT on school fees as a policy choice. If so, please understand the policy will be blamed for any private schools that close from now on.
However, spending per pupil in private schools has increased by 25% in real terms since 2010.
It has grown from around 50% higher than state schools to 100% higher. This is, to my mind, completely unsustainable for those schools during a cost of living crisis. Alternatively, it's a glaring indicator of how intergenerational inequality has grown under the Conservatives.
And there is the small, seperate matter of 100,000 children in some form of state care. That's where most people's concerns will lie - for every sad case of a child who has to move private school (or even to a state school), there is a horrific one for some kid being abused or neglected elsewhere.5 -
It's perception though. Most people don't read down below pensioners and tax break...StaffordKnot said:Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.
It will mean very few if any.
3 -
Yes. It's the obsessive unwillingness of any politician to discuss any policy that touches in the slightest way on our former membership of the European Union that's the problem. EU membership has been replaced by a void where everything disappears.No_Offence_Alan said:
The obsessive rejoinery where Ed Davey didn't even mention Europe in his first 4 set-piece speeches as leader to LD Conference?Casino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really stupid idea. But as Keir Starmer is a socialist, by his own confession, hBig_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
There's a reason the Liberal Democrats haven't followed Starmer off the cliff on this.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The interesting argument here is it is the Guardian not any conservative supporting paperCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
I think this may well be Starmer's first problem
Were it not for their obsessive EU rejoinery my (semi-realistic) preferred outcome of the election would be where they held the balance of power.0 -
Yes, it can be six weeks or it can be longer.Cleitophon said:
the law simply says: "Parliament has to be dissolved 25 working days before polling day."BartholomewRoberts said:
6 weeks was chosen as the law requires it.Cleitophon said:Sorry, but I think this is wishful thinking. The undecideds are giving labour the benefit of the doubt.... That is simply the "change mood." And given the way the tory campaign is unfolding (it will completely implode over the next 6 weeks) - there is simply no good outlook for the right. 6 weeks was chosen because sunak thought labour would trip up.... ohhhhh the hubris. That 6 weeks is going to be an albatross for the coservatives.
There are any number of ways that can be set up
Given a requirement for washup between the announcement and Parliament dissolving, the minimum viable by law is six weeks.0 -
Poorer pensioners, who are probably the most likely to be wandering away. Richer pensioners are as close to blue bankers as there are right nowDaveyboy1961 said:
It's perception though. Most people don't read down below pensioners and tax break...StaffordKnot said:Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.
It will mean very few if any.0 -
Which is why the tories did it to knock 1p off NI...another_richard said:
The non-doms were always going to be taxed this year.Carnyx said:
Comparse the frothing on here about Labour and nondoms: yeteek said:
Oh I know Labour will get the blame once it's in power and the policy has been implemented my point through out this was more that CR has been sold a lie and is believing it..Ratters said:
You are entirely right.eek said:
It's going to be a very minor factor in the education sector - the big issues at the moment areCasino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.
1) Demographics the number of pre-school age children is significantly lower than previous years. You can see that in general admissions into State Schools, private schools can't escape the issue.
2) Cost of living has increased significantly - I can see people looking at the cost and going - with our new mortgage rates it's not possible.
3) VAT - but that's a long range thing
Although you are always going to disagree Aston is closing because of points 1 and 2. 3 is a factor but it's the first point that will be impacting next years numbers...
But point 1 has only just started to bite for primary schools, and hasn't yet for secondary ones.
The implication is a lot of private schools will close and Labour's VAT policy may get the blame politically once in power.
That's an issue for a future election not this one, but it's fairly predictable how it'll play out.
Everything about the announcement in his case was points 1 and 2 have occurred but thankfully here's reason 3 which I can use to say it's none of our (management, parents) faults. Otherwise you would have the couple of parents leaving because of point 2 thinking it was their fault the school was closing...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/28/billionaire-non-dom-quit-uk-hunt-scrapped-tax-breaks-taxes
The only question became who did it and so was able to spend the money.0 -
You get pension credit to top you up to almost £11.5 k.megasaur said:
But that's nobody isn't it? Surely you get some additional benefit on top of 11.5k if you have nothing else?StaffordKnot said:Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.
But that's a non-taxable benefit anyways.
That triggers a range of other benefits such as housing benefit.0 -
That makes zero sense for a lot of reasons.StaffordKnot said:Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.
I suspect the easiest fix would be to make the state pension none taxable and then reduce pensioners tax allowance to £0 - would create a few hideous edge cases where people don't receive the full state pension but it would be the easiest way to implement such a scheme...1 -
Both can be valid and successful strategies, and it makes sense why each has chosen theirs. The Tories are set for a loss and need to change the trajectory, and Labour are set for a win and don't want to rock the boat.Scott_xP said:@DPJHodges
Two very different election strategies already developing. Tories with a flurry of major announcements to seize the agenda. Labour sitting back, saying very little, leaving them to it. Tories glad they’re making the running. Labour glad they’re making the running as well.
Campaigns can but usually don't vastly improve the projected outcomes, but on the same assumption you wouldn't usually make things worse by trying risky moves.2 -
Roger lecturing others on privilege, and Big G lecturing the assembled trainspotters of the site on how the railway industry works. My, PB is interesting this morning.Roger said:
As only 5% go to pivate schools I can't see how it would make any difference to anything. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. If the 1 in 20 parents who send their children to private schools think they are stealing a lead on the 19 in 20 who cant afford it then I don't see anything wrong with the state charging them a small premium. Consider it a fine for trying to buy privilege.Casino_Royale said:
Yep, it's a really dumb idea - it's damaging the education sector already and, as the article says, it will cost the Treasury not benefit it. But as Keir Starmer is, by his own confession, "a socialist", he's pressing ahead with it regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting take on VAT on private schools from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
I would just say that because of the timing of the election the number of children leaving private schools for the state sector will become very apparent by the Autumn and I expect it will not be good news for labour's calculations on the funding available from this decision
Lots of businesses and private citizens who are planning to vote for him are going to feel had in 12-18 months time.0 -
Personal allowance 12750
Pension 11500
As it's so close why not link the two - PA *for everyone* rises in lockstep with the pension?0 -
See above.eek said:
That makes zero sense for a lot of reasons.StaffordKnot said:Off topic: Mel Stride on Sky News this morning said that the pensioner tax
bribebreak would only apply where the state pension was the person's sole income https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795343486796882126 (1:20 to 1:30). If that is the case then I would think it will shift no votes at all, as the typical Tory voter tends not to be living on just the state pension.
I suspect the easiest fix would be to make the state pension none taxable and then reduce pensioners tax allowance to £0 - would create a few hideous edge cases where people don't receive the full state pension but it would be the easiest way to implement such a scheme...
If you don't receive the full state pension, you get pension credit to top you up. It isn't taxable.0 -
I don't think the quadruple lock will shift the narrative from National Service. It's too complicated, doesn't directly affect enough people.
I wonder if they got the announcements the wrong way round?0 -
Meanwhile. Spending on a SEN child was set at £10k in 2010.Eabhal said:
I have a great deal of sympathy with those who are having to move school. I did so 7 times (all state), mainly due to family circumstance but also a result of rural school closure as populations declined. I would not want to minimise the disruptive impact this has on children.FF43 said:
This is a bit like the argument Britain's relative decline has nothing to do with Brexit. There may be other factors involved and those factors may or may not be more important. The fact is the camel's back was broken. People are bound to blame the straw that was added as the back broke. Particularly when loading the straw was a choice.Scott_xP said:@MonkEmma
Congratulations to the Telegraph for managing to find a private school that’s closing and attempting to to pin it on Labour🙄
But is it true that it’s closing under a Tory government because of a Labour policy that hasn’t happened yet?
Here’s a little 🧵
You decide!
https://x.com/MonkEmma/status/1794661358568607872
You might be in favour of VAT on school fees as a policy choice. If so, please understand the policy will be blamed for any private schools that close from now on.
However, spending per pupil in private schools has increased by 25% in real terms since 2010.
It has grown from around 50% higher than state schools to 100% higher. This is, to my mind, completely unsustainable for those schools during a cost of living crisis. Alternatively, it's a glaring indicator of how intergenerational inequality has grown under the Conservatives.
And there is the small, seperate matter of 100,000 children in some form of state care. That's where most people's concerns will lie - for every sad case of a child who has to move private school (or even to a state school), there is a horrific one for some kid being abused or neglected elsewhere.
It remains at £10k.3 -
Yes if voters voted Conservative last time and still have not committed to vote Labour, LD or Reform it is likely in the end they will vote Conservative again1
-
Train drivers, understandably, get time off after a "one under".ydoethur said:
I can't imagine pay is the problem with train drivers. They're paid an absolute fortune. Indeed, I imagine that's why they're not bothered about overtime.Stuartinromford said:
If the alternative is not having enough train drivers, isn't that just things costing what they cost?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I retired 15 years agoHeathener said:
YepLostPassword said:
My experience with a lot of unions is that ASLEF have likely been warning management for ages that they are short-staffed, and cannot rely on workers goodwill to fill rosters at short notice to fill in the gaps, but that management have refused (or in this case are forbidden by the DfT) to recruit sufficiently to make up the difference.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I regularly travelled to London when on business and it was an excellent reliable serviceHeathener said:
I note @Big_G_NorthWales immediately blamed it on the unions. Not sure the last time he went on a train but all of us rail users know that whilst the unions aren’t helping matters, the problems are far more systemic than that. Our railways are a shambles at the moment.eek said:Fpt
Going back to Avanti and Llandudno - there is no overtime ban at he moment but that doesn’t stop people not accepting the offer (unlike the Tory scheme it’s not compulsory) but the issue will be lack of route knowledge if the issue is drivers - school holidays and sickness can knock any route off, and it’s not a route everyone knows
ASLEF have been holding the railways to ransom and the question is will Starmer concede their wage demsnds
I would also comment that when they arrived 10 days ago the Euston Holyhead train was delayed by over 45 minutes in Chester due to lack of crew
Bashing Aslef is just another form of scapegoating for the underfunded shitshow this Government have made of the railways.
Sorry @Big_G_NorthWales you’re wrong on this, and citing your commuter experience from c. quarter of a century ago doesn’t help your argument on this occasion imho x
Anyway Starmer will concede to the unions and you will have higher fares
There's a famous Conservative Prime Minister who had something to say about trying to buck the market.
There must be another bottleneck somewhere.0 -
No no, you misunderstood. By restrictions I didn't mean that they need to learn the routes the operate. I meant a restriction on how many routes that knowledge encompasses. As an example. Newcastle to Liverpool on Transpennine Express can now require THREE drivers to operate one service because the DfT have instructed the operator to greatly restrict route knowledge of drivers at some crew bases. Two crew changes on that trip almost guarantees cancellations...pm215 said:
Drivers having route restrictions isn't bizarre -- it's necessary for safety, because you need to be able to anticipate what's coming up, know the braking points, and so on. So drivers can only drive routes they have current knowledge for. The question then is where you set the balance on how many different routes any particular driver is current on. It costs money to have drivers current on a route (training time is time they aren't driving), but if you try to absolutely minimise it then you have lousy operational flexibility when things go wrong. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the DfT and/or TOCs were being too cheeseparing.RochdalePioneers said:The unions aren't saints - we know that. But rail crew are people too. Their employers aren't allowed by the government to hire enough staff. So the only way the service can operate is via goodwill - people working rest days and thus not spending time with their family.
What happens when that goodwill evaporates? The service can't run fully. Then add into the mix some bizarre DfT dictat that drivers should have route restrictions - meaning more crew needed to operate a single service - and you're asking for trouble.
The solution? The Shapps - Williams plan is a start. A wholesale restructure to simplify the utter chaos which is he current structure. The Tories have had this on the planner since 2021 and other than spending money on competitions as to in which Tory maginal the HQ should be have done *nothing*.
So yes, its clearly the fault of the unions. Of people. How Dare They not work on a day off. Who do they think they are, putting family first?
Its an outrage.3 -
Which is why people need to defend their policy choices from first principles and explain how the policy will benefit society, rather than claiming the actual consequences of the policy have nothing to do with the policy.Eabhal said:
I have a great deal of sympathy with those who are having to move school. I did so 7 times (all state), mainly due to family circumstance but also a result of rural school closure as populations declined. I would not want to minimise the disruptive impact this has on children.FF43 said:
This is a bit like the argument Britain's relative decline has nothing to do with Brexit. There may be other factors involved and those factors may or may not be more important. The fact is the camel's back was broken. People are bound to blame the straw that was added as the back broke. Particularly when loading the straw was a choice.Scott_xP said:@MonkEmma
Congratulations to the Telegraph for managing to find a private school that’s closing and attempting to to pin it on Labour🙄
But is it true that it’s closing under a Tory government because of a Labour policy that hasn’t happened yet?
Here’s a little 🧵
You decide!
https://x.com/MonkEmma/status/1794661358568607872
You might be in favour of VAT on school fees as a policy choice. If so, please understand the policy will be blamed for any private schools that close from now on.
However, spending per pupil in private schools has increased by 25% in real terms since 2010.
It has grown from around 50% higher than state schools to 100% higher. This is, to my mind, completely unsustainable for those schools during a cost of living crisis. Alternatively, it's a glaring indicator of how intergenerational inequality has grown under the Conservatives.
And there is the small, seperate matter of 100,000 children in some form of state care. That's where most people's concerns will lie - for every sad case of a child who has to move private school (or even to a state school), there is a horrific one for some kid being abused or neglected elsewhere.0 -
I thought all political parties were huge fans of (legal) tax avoidance, they certainly provide enough opportunities for people and companies to engage in it.SouthamObserver said:The Tory admission that they have failed to tackle over £80bn of tax avoidance since they took power is an interesting one.
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