politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON

Speedy said:

Since it was worthy for someone to mention the scottish subsample I would like to point on two other subsamples with almost 2&3 times the size:
Northern England, sample 126:
LAB 42, UKIP 24, CON 22, LD 1(if that is real then bye bye Clegg, also CON 3rd behind UKIP)

Midlands, sample 137:
CON 30, LAB 29, UKIP 24, LD 7 (UKIP just 6 points away from 1st place in an area with many marginals)

Easterross said:

2 nonsense polls which bear no resemblance to what is happening in the real world.

BenM said:

The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).

OldKingCole said:

O/t Blair has been given an award by Save the Children an someone's started a petition to get it withdrawn.

CarlottaVance said:

BenM said:

The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).

Very Ed Miliband Labour - demonising the aspirational working class who want to better themselves....

DavidL said:

Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?

As I said a few weeks ago every time the Tories get close they seem to fall back again. I don't think I have seen a lead for them of more than 1% yet. 7% is looking an awfully long way away.

MarkHopkins said:

There are times that I think the EU exists purely to come up with the most ridiculous arrangements it can, just to see if they can get away with it.

There is, of course, a twitter storm about this...

How the EU's #VATMOSS is the end of small enterprise in Britain

http://idea15.wordpress.com/2014/11/24/how-vatmoss-is-the-end-of-small-enterprise-in-britain-and-how-we-can-change-it/?utm_content=bufferfb2a2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

The decision ahead for microenterprises is not about how to alter sales and administration to comply with the changes; it is whether to continue trading at all.

DavidL said:

The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment. They are being distracted by Ed's awfulness but I fear there are few votes left in this theme. Time to get serious about the real issues facing this country.

BenM said:

CarlottaVance said:

BenM said:

The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).

Very Ed Miliband Labour - demonising the aspirational working class who want to better themselves....

The aspirational white working class

CarlottaVance said:

Easterross said:

2 nonsense polls which bear no resemblance to what is happening in the real world.

Of his poll, Lord Ashcroft observes:

All these changes are well within the margin of error and are not significant in themselves.

DavidL said:

Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?

As I said a few weeks ago every time the Tories get close they seem to fall back again. I don't think I have seen a lead for them of more than 1% yet. 7% is looking an awfully long way away.

From Labour's perspective the EIC position must surely now be baked in. No matter how crap he shows himself to be it does not seem to make any difference because so few people think much of him anyway.

The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment. They are being distracted by Ed's awfulness but I fear there are few votes left in this theme. Time to get serious about the real issues facing this country.

Con 31% (+4)
Lab 33% (+1)
UKP 16% (-3)
Lib 7% (--)
Grn 6% (-1)

Danny565 said:

Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.

BenM said:

DavidL said:

Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?

The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.

Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.

The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!

Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.

The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).

Flightpath said:

Danny565 said:

Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.

The logic of that is that voting UKIP gives you europhile Labour remains true.

isam said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

Given this poll, UKIP must be ahead of the Tories in large swathes of England.

That is true, even with a 9 point difference UK wide, the UKIP figure ex-London and Scotland is probably around 4-5 points higher while the Tory number is only about 1 point higher, which would close the gap considerably.
There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.

In the "I'd swerve a friend if they voted UKIP" index earlier, the midlands was the least anti UKIP area

People in the midlands don't send their mates to Coventry?

AndyJS said:

O/T:

"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity.
The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud.
The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London.
He was found guilty of all charges.
The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-30173915

DavidL said:

BenM said:

DavidL said:

Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?

The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.

Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.

The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!

Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.

The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).

Ben: Unemployment: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

Now down to levels seen in the City boom of 2007/
Growth: highest in G7 this year and pretty respectable next. Historically better after the revisions.
Employment: absolute record high, by the election there will be 2m more people employed in this country than there was in 2010. Has any government ever increased employment by more in a single Parliament?
inflation: at record lows. So low as to be slightly worrying in fact.
Deficit: down by 1/3 but I agree it is still too high.
Investment: growing strongly.

Given what they inherited it is not much short of miraculous. It is true that real wages have fallen over this Parliament although that has been offset for most by the substantial increases in personal allowances. It is also true that a lot of people, nearly 1m, have been shaken out of comfortable public sector employment with more to come. It is also true that the careful policies of Osborne have meant that we still buy and spend too much causing a serious trade deficit. We are still living beyond our means. But still bordering on the miraculous when you look at what has happened to France and Italy amongst many others over the same period.

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity.
The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud.
The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London.
He was found guilty of all charges.
The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-30173915

Somerset has a racial equality council?

Neil said:

Flightpath said:

Wages are also constrained by new mandatory pensions (payments by employer and employeee) introduced under this govt but formulated by Labour.

Employee pension contributions are not mandatory.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in Turkey:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30183711

"Turkey president Erdogan: Women are not equal to men"

Mr Dancer. Looks like Mr Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.

Flightpath said:

DavidL said:

BenM said:

DavidL said:

Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?

The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.

Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.

The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!

Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.

The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).

Ben: Unemployment: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

Now down to levels seen in the City boom of 2007/
Growth: highest in G7 this year and pretty respectable next. Historically better after the revisions.
Employment: absolute record high, by the election there will be 2m more people employed in this country than there was in 2010. Has any government ever increased employment by more in a single Parliament?
inflation: at record lows. So low as to be slightly worrying in fact.
Deficit: down by 1/3 but I agree it is still too high.
Investment: growing strongly.

Given what they inherited it is not much short of miraculous. It is true that real wages have fallen over this Parliament although that has been offset for most by the substantial increases in personal allowances. It is also true that a lot of people, nearly 1m, have been shaken out of comfortable public sector employment with more to come. It is also true that the careful policies of Osborne have meant that we still buy and spend too much causing a serious trade deficit. We are still living beyond our means. But still bordering on the miraculous when you look at what has happened to France and Italy amongst many others over the same period.

The structural deficit is down considerably.
Wages are also constrained by new mandatory pensions (payments by employer and employeee) introduced under this govt but formulated by Labour.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MarkSenior said:

Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.

Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .

Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing under 30 MPs and 11% vote share.

36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .

With the LDs polling half your forecast, you are very optimistic on the turnaround at the GE in 6 months. It is almost double the current polling. If the LD figures have not moved into double figures consistently in February, I cannot see your numbers being achieved.

LDs currently on 7.1% in the latest weekly ELBOW (11 polls), their lowest score yet (ie. since the first ELBOW from 17th August).

Itajai said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity.
The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud.
The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London.
He was found guilty of all charges.
The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-30173915

Somerset has a racial equality council?

Don't worry, it will be exempt from any public sector cuts.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Itajai said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in Turkey:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30183711
"Turkey president Erdogan: Women are not equal to men"

Is he still lionised as a "moderate" Islamist or "mildly Islamist" as the Akonomist used to label him.

Just imagine Turkey in an expanded EC? Shudder.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Excellent polls to ensure the pressure on the LotO is relieved and it may be said by some that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

In case you haven't seen it, ELBOW for you, sir!
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Excellent polls to ensure the pressure on the LotO is relieved and it may be said by some that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

In case you haven't seen it, ELBOW for you, sir!
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136

Thank you.

However your joint has little to do with the reality of next May that will confirm PBers who seriously thought Mr Miliband would be traversing the portals of 10 Downing Street as Her Majesty's First Minister are in expeditious need of psychiatric treatment.

ThomasNashe said:

Alanbrooke.

just total bollocks.

If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.

---

I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Itajai said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in Turkey:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30183711
"Turkey president Erdogan: Women are not equal to men"

Is he still lionised as a "moderate" Islamist or "mildly Islamist" as the Akonomist used to label him.

Just imagine Turkey in an expanded EC? Shudder.

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity.
The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud.
The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London.
He was found guilty of all charges.
The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-30173915

Somerset has a racial equality council?

Now you know what your taxes have been spent on over the years.

ThomasNashe said:

MarkHopkins said:

ThomasNashe said:

Alanbrooke.

just total bollocks.

If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.

---

I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.

They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.

Nonsense. It underpinned the whole ethos of the coalition. Remember Vince and his 'elephant in the room'.

Danny565 said:

taffys said:

Latest forecast update: Con 283, Lab 284, LD 24, SNP 33, UKIP 4

Election forecast UK have just forecast this (via twitter).

That looks like an ideal result to me. Complete gridlock, which will result in no further spending cuts being able to get through.

Neil said:

Danny565 said:

taffys said:

Latest forecast update: Con 283, Lab 284, LD 24, SNP 33, UKIP 4

Election forecast UK have just forecast this (via twitter).

That looks like an ideal result to me. Complete gridlock, which will result in no further spending cuts being able to get through.

I'm not sure that a result returning nearly 600 MPs from parties supporting spending cuts will result in no further spending cuts.

NickPalmer said:

ThomasNashe said:

Stunning poll. I really expected Labour to have taken a big hit after Friday. Obviously, Ed's a wiser man than me. Way to go: keep respecting them white vans!

lol. Based on a few hundred conversations over the weekend, I think what's happening is this:

Snip