politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON
The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that had Lab 36 (=) Con 31 (-2), LD 9 (=), UKIP 15.(+1) So both today’s surveys have comfortable margins for EdM’s team which if it wasn’t for the current problems north of the border would point to a solid majority on May 7th.
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First!0
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Labour +4, Con -1, UKIP -2, Lib Dem -1, Green (-) from my prediction this morning.0
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Ed is safe! Praise the Lord!0
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Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .0
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http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ed-miliband-labour-leader-for-general-election
Ed to still be leader 1-8 now with SkyBet. Glad I smashed more into the 1-5 when it was available.0 -
Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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I think ditching her will do Labour good, they have the metropolitan/London/luvvie vote absolutely sown up and need to focus on their WC UKIP/Lab switchers.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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It was quite funny though___Bobajob___ said:
Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Happy days!0
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Ashcroft also says his latest survey of battleground constituencies will be out later this week.0
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No '22 rumblings probably means Dave is safe now too (He was already but if anything was going to happen surely R&S was the time)0
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Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Will the Greens field as many candidates as the Lib Dems ?0
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Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide? 0
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Terrible polls for the tories today.0
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Just when we thought His Lordship had got the hang of this polling malarkey....0
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Tories in a 27-30 window, 28.5 midpoint,
Labour in a 30-32 window, 31 midpoint (Ashcroft)0 -
It is true that I thought Brown's bigot gate episode in 2010 would hit Labour support . I learnt from my error then . Some people never learn from history .___Bobajob___ said:
Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Alas, today's polls will have to be included in next week's ELBOW, which this week shows Lab lead down to only 0.5% (-0.9)
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He has.MarqueeMark said:Just when we thought His Lordship had got the hang of this polling malarkey....
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Yes - look how well Ed's doing:
did they think David Cameron or Ed Miliband was the most likely to be Prime Minister after the election? On this question the nation was less equivocal. Only 23 per cent of all voters said they expected Miliband to enter Number Ten next May. More than half (59 per cent) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88 per cent), a majority of UKIP voters (55 per cent) and two thirds of swing voters (68 per cent) expect Cameron to remain in charge. Even Labour voters are divided over whether the Prime Minister will be Cameron (43 per cent) or Miliband (44 per cent).
In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street. That in itself could be an indicator of whether they will ultimately be prepared to put him there.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-labour-are-five-points-ahead-in-this-weeks-ashcroft-national-poll.html0 -
The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron0
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No.Pulpstar said:Will the Greens field as many candidates as the Lib Dems ?
At conference Natalie Bennett set a target of 75%. Over the weekend Caroline Lucas articulated the aim as 500+ candidates (technically slightly higher but presumably just a better way of putting it). Given the size of the party now (very nearly twice as much as at the start of the year) I think the 50% or so increase in candidates implied by those statements is achievable.
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Judging by the Ashcroft and Populus today I think the very soft UKIP-Con switchers are currently UKIP.
They are low hanging fruit for both UKIP and Tories though.0 -
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Including 11 polls last week including YG Sunday Times and Sun on Sunday:
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 2h 2 hours ago
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 23rd Nov. Lab 33.4%, Con 32.9%, UKIP 15.3%, LD 7.1%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
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Fancy increasing your exposure on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat at the same terms you previously gave me?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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55% of UKIP voters think Cameron will be PM.......Pulpstar said:Judging by the Ashcroft and Populus today I think the very soft UKIP-Con switchers are currently UKIP.
They are low hanging fruit for both UKIP and Tories though.
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Two polls that will start to put the willies up Tory backbenchers.
Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.0 -
What about Rochester, Clacton & Heywood?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Shouldn’t we be beginning ask if the LD’s will field as many candidates as the Greens?0
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Pulpstar said:
Fortunately for Edward Samuel Miliband we are NOT in a presidential system.isam said:The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron
Technically true. But in practice it does affect (some) people's thinking when they vote.
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And they don't want Ed in.....How is it backfiring?BenM said:Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.
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What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Nope .OldKingCole said:Shouldn’t we be beginning ask if the LD’s will field as many candidates as the Greens?
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The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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I see #CameronMustGo is still trending on Twitter.0
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If you are going off council elections then my Rother Valley UKIP tip is a sure fire winner.
But it isn't, I'd price it at 4-1 - not evens (Tipped at 8-1)0 -
I missed most of the action as I have been up north all weekend socialising. I'm sure it was amusing - usual "lefties hate England" stuff no doubtPulpstar said:
It was quite funny though___Bobajob___ said:
Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.0
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Maybe they would like a Con/Lab coalition, with Nigel Farage as PM?CarlottaVance said:
And they don't want Ed in.....How is it backfiring?BenM said:Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.
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Todays LordyLordy LAB 349 CON 241 LD 30 EICIPM
Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap0 -
I think this question needs to be updated...
Q4. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015 - just under a year from now.
It's more like 6 months now.
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No. Cameron must absolutely stay. I'll lose fortunes if he goes :PSunil_Prasannan said:I see #CameronMustGo is still trending on Twitter.
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Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing <30 MPs and 11% vote share.MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1m1 minute ago
The @LordAshcroft England only figures are absolutely devastating for the Tories and show the damage UKIP is doing
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Table 3 of the Ashcroft has Con/Lab/UKIP level with male voters.
Con 27%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25%
p.5
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ANP-141124-Full-data-tables.pdf0 -
Wonderful!Sunil_Prasannan said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1m1 minute ago
The @LordAshcroft England only figures are absolutely devastating for the Tories and show the damage UKIP is doing0 -
I'm sure that's right, Ben.BenM said:
I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.isam said:The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron
A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.0 -
Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.CarlottaVance said:
Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?Carnyx said:
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.CarlottaVance said:
From yesterday:
stay/leave:
OA: 40/41
Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf0 -
The posting volume amongst posters who are Labour leaning is tremendously up on this thread against most other threads.0
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bigjohnowls said:
Todays LordyLordy LAB 349 CON 241 LD 30 EICIPM
Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap
Well, they're decent, but let's not forget this time last year 5% leads would've been a little on the worrying side...bigjohnowls said:Todays LordyLordy LAB 349 CON 241 LD 30 EICIPM
Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap0 -
The good news is that EdM is safe for 2014. We will be in the Xmas shutdown soon.0
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Ghastly Scots subsample for Labour though !0
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David Cameron as well.TCPoliticalBetting said:The good news is that EdM is safe for 2014. We will be in the Xmas shutdown soon.
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It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.Carnyx said:
Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.CarlottaVance said:
Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?Carnyx said:
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.CarlottaVance said:
From yesterday:
stay/leave:
OA: 40/41
Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf
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Yet more evidence that Ed Miliband will become The Accidental Prime Minister that nobody wanted next May.
Measure up the curtains, Gromit...0 -
30 seats short of majority means Cameron is out! Can't wait. The most useless PM since, er, Brown.Peter_the_Punter said:
I'm sure that's right, Ben.BenM said:
I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.isam said:The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron
A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.0 -
The only hope for the Tories to pull back from this devastating position is to ditch the hapless Dave and replace him with a politician of substance, character and conviction - Priti Patel.0
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The Lincolnshire Echo has picked up the Jack Monroe story but somehow not The Guardian.
Curious.
On-topic - the Cons remain nasty, as people remain in denial about what is required if we are to rid ourselves of the deficit. 2010 really might have been the wrong election to win which means with a Lab govt we have two options:
1) "We'll cut more than the Cons" hold fast to economic sanity
2) "We'll spend and borrow more" pandering to the vocal and numerous "it's not fair" contingent.
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I've said it all along and I'm sticking to my prediction:
Labour Minority. Tories most votes. PM Ed.0 -
Indeed so. Makes a changePulpstar said:The posting volume amongst posters who are Labour leaning is tremendously up on this thread against most other threads.
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Are they more or less in favour of nuking the EU?CarlottaVance said:Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.
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Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.0
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If Dave has more seats than Ed he is going nowhere.BenM said:
30 seats short of majority means Cameron is out! Can't wait. The most useless PM since, er, Brown.Peter_the_Punter said:
I'm sure that's right, Ben.BenM said:
I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.isam said:The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron
A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.
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The worst party leader of all time ever, ever! And they are still leading by 5? Maybe it's the Conservatives that have problems. I mean it's the party that has problems that has defections right?0
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Remember how Twitter won SINDYREF?Sunil_Prasannan said:I see #CameronMustGo is still trending on Twitter.
The voters seem to think #CameronWillStay
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And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Unfortunately that is copy paste talk from the praetorian Tories who say that UKIP is not a problem as their voters will come back to the Tories come election time.Danny565 said:Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.
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Yep. And the last two are a small country mentality: don't feel they can go it alone and would rather leave collective defence to the big boys.CarlottaVance said:
It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.Carnyx said:
Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.CarlottaVance said:
Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?Carnyx said:
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.CarlottaVance said:
From yesterday:
stay/leave:
OA: 40/41
Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf0 -
36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessingMarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Interesting to see that the evaporation of Scottish Labour support is seeing a resurgence in English Labour support. Suggests the SNP surge/Slab plunge is real.0
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Definitely less......and you really shouldn't be giving Kippers ideas.....Neil said:
Are they more or less in favour of nuking the EU?CarlottaVance said:Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.
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You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Thanks. Though one might inquire why they keep voting against the Tories in that case ...CarlottaVance said:
It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.Carnyx said:
Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.CarlottaVance said:
Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?Carnyx said:
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.CarlottaVance said:
From yesterday:
stay/leave:
OA: 40/41
Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf
The EU is going to be very important as the Unionist parties seem to keep wanting to refight indyref. But As the Unionists fought indyref in part on a platform that being out of the EU would be a fate worse than death, simultaneously reminding the Scots of indyref (with UKIP and rebellious Tories to be crushed on the BBC 'national' news from London ad nauseam, too) while expecting them to vote Unionist is an interesting strategy. And it doesn't help to have this in the newspapers:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/nigel-dodds-unionist-parties-should-forge-pact-in-scotland-and-northern-i.1416763066?
Trouble is, it's pretty toxic for Labour too.
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Ms Pankhurst rocksanotherDave said:Table 3 of the Ashcroft has Con/Lab/UKIP level with male voters.
Con 27%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25%
p.5
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ANP-141124-Full-data-tables.pdf0 -
But there's actually a proven record of this happening in Scotland, though. The SNP had a big lead in general election polls up until late 2009, before a huge turnaround when the election actually came. Then it was the exact reverse a year later for the Holyrood election: Labour had a massive lead for ages until the campaign started and people started thinking specifically about who they wanted to be the Scottish government and the SNP started surging.Speedy said:
Unfortunately that is copy paste talk from the praetorian Tories who say that UKIP is not a problem as their voters will come back to the Tories come election time.Danny565 said:Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.
It just seems to me that those "switchers" in Scotland automatically just tell the pollsters who they voted for in the most recent election (I'm defining the referendum as an election for the purposes of this), and only start thinking about one specific election when it's about to happen.0 -
The last few polls have not been good for the Tories, but let's see how it all settles down once Rochester is out of the spotlight: we've had at least 6 polls with the Tories in the lead this month.
The last sentence of Lord Ashcroft's summary is instructive:
"For the other half of the sample I put the question in a slightly different way: irrespective of what they wanted to happen, did they think David Cameron or Ed Miliband was the most likely to be Prime Minister after the election? On this question the nation was less equivocal. Only 23% of all voters said they expected Miliband to enter Number Ten next May. More than half (59%) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88%), a majority of UKIP voters (55%) and two thirds of swing voters (68%) expect Cameron to remain in charge. Even Labour voters are divided over whether the PM will be Cameron (43%) or Miliband (44%).
In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street. That in itself could be an indicator of whether they will ultimately be prepared to put him there."0 -
Didn't even know there was one in Stockport, when was that?MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Miss Vance, I'm shocked to learnt that people on Twitter who don't like Cameron are saying on Twitter that they don't like Cameron.0 -
I have visions of Messrs Murphy, Findlay and Ms Boyak running screaming from the room......though having spent decades demonising 'Westminster' and 'Tories' one has to have a quiet chuckle.....Carnyx said:
Trouble is, it's pretty toxic for Labour too.CarlottaVance said:
It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.Carnyx said:
Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.CarlottaVance said:
Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?Carnyx said:
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.CarlottaVance said:
From yesterday:
stay/leave:
OA: 40/41
Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf
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So what , in the Henley by election in 2008 , Labour were beaten by both Greens and BNP , in 2010 they polled 5 times their votes .There are plenty of other examples if you want to look for themSpeedy said:
You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).
Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.
The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.
Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.0 -
Indeed if Labour focus more on england rather than scotland they will get more votes and more seats, after all scotland will be SNP territory no matter what for at least a decade as shown by BQ in Canada, only when the scottish people realize that a vote for the SNP doesn't mean they will get more for scotland they will want to vote for a national party again.Alistair said:Interesting to see that the evaporation of Scottish Labour support is seeing a resurgence in English Labour support. Suggests the SNP surge/Slab plunge is real.
Labour should study the rise and fall of the BQ in Canada in order to have a blueprint to deal with the SNP.0 -
I believe she has form, as well, on the same topic.TOPPING said:The Lincolnshire Echo has picked up the Jack Monroe story but somehow not The Guardian.
Curious.
On-topic - the Cons remain nasty, as people remain in denial about what is required if we are to rid ourselves of the deficit. 2010 really might have been the wrong election to win which means with a Lab govt we have two options:
1) "We'll cut more than the Cons" hold fast to economic sanity
2) "We'll spend and borrow more" pandering to the vocal and numerous "it's not fair" contingent.0 -
Last week same day as Rochester .isam said:
Didn't even know there was one in Stockport, when was that?MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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But Labour were beaten by political parties not joke candidates.MarkSenior said:
So what , in the Henley by election in 2008 , Labour were beaten by both Greens and BNP , in 2010 they polled 5 times their votes .There are plenty of other examples if you want to look for themSpeedy said:
You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Ed's far from being the worst ever party leader. Clearly he's not the best either, but he's surely suffering from the general public disapproval of politicians generally, and (I would contend) the fact that Cameron is actually pretty good.Alistair said:The worst party leader of all time ever, ever! And they are still leading by 5? Maybe it's the Conservatives that have problems. I mean it's the party that has problems that has defections right?
Apart from Brown, who's in his own special category of awfulness in every respect, I'd certainly say Kinnock, Callaghan, and Foot were worse for Labour. IDS and Heath worse for the Tories. (Merely as I see things of course)
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Oh council by elections? Didn't notice sorryMarkSenior said:
Last week same day as Rochester .isam said:
Didn't even know there was one in Stockport, when was that?MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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Ed's enemies are behind him.BenM said:The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).
Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.
The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.
Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.
The Tories are merely his opponents.0 -
Ivan for London - 'we're the sweatshop for the country':
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/entrepreneur-ivan-massow-announces-plan-to-run-for-london-mayor-in-2016-9879436.html0 -
Kinnock was actually pretty good - not as a prospective PM, but he deserves credit for saving Labour from a near-death experience in the mid 80sOmnium said:
Ed's far from being the worst ever party leader. Clearly he's not the best either, but he's surely suffering from the general public disapproval of politicians generally, and (I would contend) the fact that Cameron is actually pretty good.Alistair said:The worst party leader of all time ever, ever! And they are still leading by 5? Maybe it's the Conservatives that have problems. I mean it's the party that has problems that has defections right?
Apart from Brown, who's in his own special category of awfulness in every respect, I'd certainly say Kinnock, Callaghan, and Foot were worse for Labour. IDS and Heath worse for the Tories. (Merely as I see things of course)0 -
That is true for Dave too, and ever was thus for every party leader.Charles said:
Ed's enemies are behind him.BenM said:The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).
Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.
The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.
Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.
The Tories are merely his opponents.0 -
And the Lib Dems were not beaten by a joke candidate apart I suppose by UKIPSpeedy said:
But Labour were beaten by political parties not joke candidates.MarkSenior said:
So what , in the Henley by election in 2008 , Labour were beaten by both Greens and BNP , in 2010 they polled 5 times their votes .There are plenty of other examples if you want to look for themSpeedy said:
You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.MarkSenior said:
And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?isam said:
The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?MarkSenior said:
What about it ?isam said:
What about Rochester?MarkSenior said:
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.MarkSenior said:Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
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I see the 1-8 for Ed to still be leader has been pulled by Sky Bet.
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