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Does this explain why there’s been no swingback this year? – politicalbetting.com
Does this explain why there’s been no swingback this year? – politicalbetting.com
I know I was not alone in thinking that the polls would tighten somewhat this year but Labour’s lead has widened so far this year and this finding from Opinium might explain why Labour’s lead hasn’t shrunk and the Tories are facing an extinction level event election result.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/21/ulez-scrappage-scheme-vehicles-ukraine
Ukrainian air pollution worsens!
Oh, and the million people who are going to be remortaging from c.1% to c.5% over the next six months, many of whom are going to be forced sellers or raiding savings. Did I mention that before?
The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.
This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807
300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
Southern Water is asking for the biggest jump of 91%, according to the Consumer Council for Water (CCW), with South Staffordshire and Cambridge Water asking for the lowest rise of 24%.
The regulator is unlikely to approve the bill rises in full, but the BBC understands it is expected to agree to bill rises of at least half the amount the companies are requesting, and in some cases considerably more than half.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce55vp78n40o
Jesus.
Ireland presents an interesting example. Fine Gael have been in government since 2011, so roughly the same period as the Tories.
There are a whole bunch of crises that have developed over the course of their government - housing, healthcare, immigration, etc. A refugee tent encampment was cleared in Dublin for the fourth time this spring, protestors are preventing modular housing from being built when they suspect, erroneously in one case, that it will be used for asylum seekers.
The government is, in short, a complete shambles - it doesn't look that different to the situation in Westminster.
Yet the opposition opinion poll lead has evaporated. Mary Lou isn't tough enough on migrants for the voters, apparently.
It's certainly not because anyone in the government is capable of governing.
Something's gotten hold of our chart
Keeping our poll and our tenses apart
“One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””
Seven people with “critical head injuries”
Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay
This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.
What has driven this?
July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:
Announcement 29 May
Dissolve Parliament 5 June
GE 11 July
11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.
What has happened is that the position now is not as bad as people generally feared in late 2022, and there might genuinely be some scope for the Government to take credit for some of that. However, what they are coming across as saying is that things are going tremendously well and we all ought to be grateful for it. That feels terribly out of touch as people are not in fact feeling better off, and continue to be hit by high costs (inflation has tailed off, not gone into reverse) and high interest rates hurt more people - particularly key, working age swing voters - than benefit from them.
Sunak and Hunt have some pride in what they see as their economic achievements, but they seem to be allowing that to blind themselves from how the narrative is coming across.
Not sure that the voters will forget that cumulative inflation over the last two years is about 20% and those prices rises aren't going to reverse!
(It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
I almost feel sorry for the Conservatives - for all the rubbish the’ve done the interest rates are largely out of their control. They don’t set ‘em. They were low (for an abnormally long time) because of the financial crash and then COVID. Inevitably money was going to get back to a normal rate at some point. The Conservatives could have done without the Tuss-opcalypse - but I am not sure that we’d be in a particular different place without it.
I guess if they benefited from cheap money for the last ten years (inflating asset prices and what not) then they should get punished when it is not cheap. It may be unfair, but who said politics is fair. Voters get to blame the people in charge.
It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
And yet not a ripple in the polls.
Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.
Incumbents everywhere are getting it from the electorate though, the election results depend on how plausible the opposition happens to be. The UK will likely be a big loss for the government, whereas Ireland and the US will be closer.
5-10% inflation on food is not nice, but 5% interest rate on your mortgage is another thing entirely. Particularly as a whole generation have only ever known basically 0.0-0.5% base rate.
Afterwards the pilot observed it wasn't even in the top 50 of bad turbulence he had ever experienced.
Fatalities, such as the Singapore Airlines incident, are also extremely uncommon. In March 2023, severe turbulence on a private jet resulted in the death of a former White House official. A December 1997 United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu also experienced turbulence that left one person dead.
“Turbulence makes flights bumpy and can occasionally be dangerous,” says University of Reading meteorology researcher Mark Prosser. “Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150–500m annually in the USA alone. Every additional minute spent traveling through turbulence increases wear-and-tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants.”
A study by the University of Reading reported that severe turbulence had increased by 55% in the past four decades due to the impact of climate change.
Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
It's like Black Wednesday in 1992. It wasn't really a factor in the economy by 1997 (indeed the economy was doing better than it is now). It's just that Labour could respond to any boast of ecomic competence with "but Black Wednesday, Lamont, singing in the bath..."
EDIT TO ADD: but of course you are quite right, in terms of physics. The plane basically lands on you
https://news.sky.com/story/singapore-airlines-is-flight-turbulence-getting-worse-and-what-types-are-there-13140799
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/12/help-buy-scheme-first-time-buyers-downsize/
Easing of inflation isn't going to make these people any happier.
I am not a Costner guy, but him writing a $38 million dollar personal check for a four-part Western epic as his wife is like, “Kevin, I’m leaving you if you do this” is one of the funniest things to ever happen and I have to respect it
https://x.com/JFrankensteiner/status/1792731151850680380
Might I recommend a xanax? So no matter how bad it gets, you will be utterly indifferent to the bad food and poor service.
There is often a disconnect between the paper economy - statistics - and the real economy - prices and people's personal budgets. Currently the disconnect is large, and the government seem blissfully aware that saying "we have cut your taxes" as people's tax bills rise is a bit bloody stupid.
So it’s just shifting the tax burden round.
It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).
What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.
July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?
July 3.35
Oct 5.6
Nov 2.42
Dec 9
I do wonder how blasé some of them are about it. Maybe because they're incentivised for rapid turnaround and maybe even welcome a challenge given how boring flights can be.
It should be a core duty of pilots (recognising this isn't always possible) to avoid all sorts of turbulence, and airlines to prioritise comfort and safety over absolute speed.
And no-one is going to be enjoying their business trips and holidays after the trauma of that.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/03/27/we-may-need-to-revise-our-summer-plans/
The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.
Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
@Dannythefink says he’s picked up “a bit of talk in government circles” that a general election in July could be on the cards.
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@MattChorley @PollyMackenzie
https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1792916984528605575
I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.
November or December it will be.
There’s quite a difference between everyday bumpiness, and unexpectedly banging into severe clear air turbulence.
Next move for us (and we really didn't want to do this) is to can kick out the mortgage term from 17.5 years back up to 25 years.
* well informed about things in general, as an investor, not about British politics in particular.
The reality is those that hold assets it is, as stock market is well up, but those that don't, all that inflation has increased your McD's to $15, that isn't never going away.
https://x.com/AP/status/1792941010277843102
told the trolley service was cancelled. Then we saw the cabin crew strapping themselves in with their cross body safetybelts. At which point I thought “ah fuck” which ultimately didn’t quite cover it.
Good opportunity to get on the Autumn / winter months at decent odds
She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.
Proportionately, it would be 4 or 5 seats! (156=>2 == 365=>4.68) Which would be quite extraordinary. And, as you say, almost impossible.
That said, anything less than ~50-60 seats would be something close to functional obliteration. Somewhat unlikely but not impossible.
BREAKING: Israeli officials seize AP equipment and take down live shot of northern Gaza, citing new media law.
https://x.com/AP/status/1792905027331265001
House goes off for Whitsun holidays this Thursday. They come back Monday 3rd June. So if they want to do things conventionally, with a week or so of washup and saying goodbye and promising to write every day, earliest easy dissolution is June 12 with an election July 18.
Possible, and conventions can be broken, but not easy.
After that, the next natural dates are early September dissolution for a mid October election.
That's funny! It shows £2 stake to win £98.
I doubt they flew into a monster storm, but there would definitely have been storms in the vicinity.
So unless that's changed, they can't do any wash-up next week.
So looks very tight indeed:
Wash-up starts 3 June
Dissolve 6 June
GE 11 July
I'm not sure that would be enough time for wash-up and bear in mind D-Day celebrations that week.