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Does this explain why there’s been no swingback this year? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,794
edited June 8 in General
imageDoes this explain why there’s been no swingback this year? – politicalbetting.com

I know I was not alone in thinking that the polls would tighten somewhat this year but Labour’s lead has widened so far this year and this finding from Opinium might explain why Labour’s lead hasn’t shrunk and the Tories are facing an extinction level event election result.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    They have not. But it does push election date further back.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,288
    Could well be. Even now, although food inflation is back to pre-Covid (or war) levels, prices aren't.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,288
    ‘Dunkirk spirit’: convoy of Ulez scrappage scheme vehicles arrives in Ukraine from London
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/21/ulez-scrappage-scheme-vehicles-ukraine

    Ukrainian air pollution worsens!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,026
    Perhaps it means there is pent-up swingback. Better weather combined with better economic news will see Sunak returned to office.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,662
    Water companies in England and Wales want bills to increase by between 24% and 91% over the next five years, according to figures compiled by the consumer watchdog.

    Southern Water is asking for the biggest jump of 91%, according to the Consumer Council for Water (CCW), with South Staffordshire and Cambridge Water asking for the lowest rise of 24%.

    The regulator is unlikely to approve the bill rises in full, but the BBC understands it is expected to agree to bill rises of at least half the amount the companies are requesting, and in some cases considerably more than half.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce55vp78n40o
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,342
    Andy_JS said:

    No need for Americanisms like "gotten".

    It is the language of Shakespeare you heathen.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,941
    That's the sort of thing that can put people off flying again for life. Not just the passengers but sometimes the cabin crew too.

    Jesus.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,327

    Perhaps there's no sign of any swingback because Sunak and the Tories are utterly crap at governing?

    I dunno. I think the electorate are a bit more unpredictable than that.

    Ireland presents an interesting example. Fine Gael have been in government since 2011, so roughly the same period as the Tories.

    There are a whole bunch of crises that have developed over the course of their government - housing, healthcare, immigration, etc. A refugee tent encampment was cleared in Dublin for the fourth time this spring, protestors are preventing modular housing from being built when they suspect, erroneously in one case, that it will be used for asylum seekers.

    The government is, in short, a complete shambles - it doesn't look that different to the situation in Westminster.

    Yet the opposition opinion poll lead has evaporated. Mary Lou isn't tough enough on migrants for the voters, apparently.

    It's certainly not because anyone in the government is capable of governing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,203
    Andy_JS said:

    No need for Americanisms like "gotten".

    It’s a perfectly cromulent word.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,026

    A majority (99.9%) of PB subscribers object to Opinium’s use of the foreign word “gotten”.

    Response from Opinium:

    Something's gotten hold of our chart
    Keeping our poll and our tenses apart
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,070
    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Still extremely scary. From the guardian


    “One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

    “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””

    Seven people with “critical head injuries”
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    edited May 21
    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,070
    DEFINITELY wear your seat belt all the time
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,115
    Andy_JS said:

    No need for Americanisms like "gotten".

    An ill gotten opinion.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,164
    They could have said "...the economy has worsened in the past 12 months." Much more elegant.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,887
    Leon said:

    DEFINITELY wear your seat belt all the time

    Even in bed?
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,007
    The thing is, you would probably get a similar answer to this question at any point over the last 50 years, when obviously the economy has become much stronger over time.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,327
    Leon said:

    DEFINITELY wear your seat belt all the time

    I think, also, I'll make sure to bring a paperback book next time too.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,631
    The Conservatives are making a major error in how they are presenting their case on the economy, and I do think the extreme wealth of the PM and (to a lesser but still significant extent) of the Chancellor contributes to that.

    What has happened is that the position now is not as bad as people generally feared in late 2022, and there might genuinely be some scope for the Government to take credit for some of that. However, what they are coming across as saying is that things are going tremendously well and we all ought to be grateful for it. That feels terribly out of touch as people are not in fact feeling better off, and continue to be hit by high costs (inflation has tailed off, not gone into reverse) and high interest rates hurt more people - particularly key, working age swing voters - than benefit from them.

    Sunak and Hunt have some pride in what they see as their economic achievements, but they seem to be allowing that to blind themselves from how the narrative is coming across.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,404
    MikeL said:

    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.

    Just an outside, outside chance that Rishi will call an election tomorrow following (relatively) good CPI numbers?

    Not sure that the voters will forget that cumulative inflation over the last two years is about 20% and those prices rises aren't going to reverse!
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    MikeL said:

    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.

    I have just had £1 on August at 210 because why not? Always the chance of a breakdown and snap election to head off leadership challenge
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Still extremely scary. From the guardian


    “One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

    “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””

    Seven people with “critical head injuries”
    Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.

    (It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,026
    Is this incident likely to force pilots to route around turbulence in future or will it just be written off as a freak accident?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760

    Is this incident likely to force pilots to route around turbulence in future or will it just be written off as a freak accident?

    It’s a freak accident. Pilots already do everything within their power to route around turbulence!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,221
    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,070
    edited May 21
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Still extremely scary. From the guardian


    “One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

    “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””

    Seven people with “critical head injuries”
    Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.

    (It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
    To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force

    And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,631

    MikeL said:

    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.

    Just an outside, outside chance that Rishi will call an election tomorrow following (relatively) good CPI numbers?

    Not sure that the voters will forget that cumulative inflation over the last two years is about 20% and those prices rises aren't going to reverse!
    The one thing that makes that kind of thing vaguely credible is that Sunak's political antenna is so wayward that you can see him convincing himself that one month's encouraging inflation figures fundamentally change the political narrative that the Conservatives are tired and chaotic, and it's time for a change. No adequately able politician would believe for one second that sort of thing is a gamechanger, but Sunak isn't really an adequately able politician - he lost to a loony and was simply next in line when she swiftly blew up.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,070
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,070
    Andy_JS said:

    No need for Americanisms like "gotten".

    It is only American by descent. It is good Shakespeare, good Authorised Version (1611), good Book of Common Prayer and to this day good Yorkshire.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,115
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No need for Americanisms like "gotten".

    It is only American by descent. It is good Shakespeare, good Authorised Version (1611), good Book of Common Prayer and to this day good Yorkshire.
    Also the Wycliff bible.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,070
    megasaur said:

    MikeL said:

    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.

    I have just had £1 on August at 210 because why not? Always the chance of a breakdown and snap election to head off leadership challenge
    Of long shots, September is more likely than August.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,208
    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    edited May 21

    Sandpit said:

    It comes back to the difference between national statistics and personal finances, with the latter severely lagging the former.

    Oh, and the million people who are going to be remortaging from c.1% to c.5% over the next six months, many of whom are going to be forced sellers or raiding savings. Did I mention that before?

    Yep the drip drip of folk re-mortgaging at a higher rate will keep going for some time. My friends, not that interested in politics, are all putting the blame for those increases on the Conservative government. My suggestion that a sub 1% base rate was abnormal and 3% plus is a more historically appropriate figure gets short shrift.

    I almost feel sorry for the Conservatives - for all the rubbish the’ve done the interest rates are largely out of their control. They don’t set ‘em. They were low (for an abnormally long time) because of the financial crash and then COVID. Inevitably money was going to get back to a normal rate at some point. The Conservatives could have done without the Tuss-opcalypse - but I am not sure that we’d be in a particular different place without it.

    I guess if they benefited from cheap money for the last ten years (inflating asset prices and what not) then they should get punished when it is not cheap. It may be unfair, but who said politics is fair. Voters get to blame the people in charge.
    Yep, if we put the blame on anyone it really should be Putin, who got the inflation going with his stupid war.

    Incumbents everywhere are getting it from the electorate though, the election results depend on how plausible the opposition happens to be. The UK will likely be a big loss for the government, whereas Ireland and the US will be closer.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,662
    edited May 21

    Sandpit said:

    It comes back to the difference between national statistics and personal finances, with the latter severely lagging the former.

    Oh, and the million people who are going to be remortaging from c.1% to c.5% over the next six months, many of whom are going to be forced sellers or raiding savings. Did I mention that before?

    Yep the drip drip of folk re-mortgaging at a higher rate will keep going for some time. My friends, not that interested in politics, are all putting the blame for those increases on the Conservative government. My suggestion that a sub 1% base rate was abnormal and 3% plus is a more historically appropriate figure gets short shrift.

    I almost feel sorry for the Conservatives - for all the rubbish the’ve done the interest rates are largely out of their control. They don’t set ‘em. They were low (for an abnormally long time) because of the financial crash and then COVID. Inevitably money was going to get back to a normal rate at some point. The Conservatives could have done without the Tuss-opcalypse - but I am not sure that we’d be in a particular different place without it.

    I guess if they benefited from cheap money for the last ten years (inflating asset prices and what not) then they should get punished when it is not cheap. It may be unfair, but who said politics is fair. Voters get to blame the people in charge.
    I have said for years on here, when interest rates finally rose to more historical normal levels, whoever was holding the hot potato at the time would be absolutely crushed. As a government, you can get away with stealth taxes, fascial drag, etc but mortgages effect basically everybody and it is something you pay every month and your largest outgoing (even if you are renting, your buy-to-let landlord will pass on the increase).

    5-10% inflation on food is not nice, but 5% interest rate on your mortgage is another thing entirely. Particularly as a whole generation have only ever known basically 0.0-0.5% base rate.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,342

    That's the sort of thing that can put people off flying again for life. Not just the passengers but sometimes the cabin crew too.

    Jesus.

    The closest I have ever come to drinking alcohol was when I experienced very bad turbulence.

    Afterwards the pilot observed it wasn't even in the top 50 of bad turbulence he had ever experienced.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,877
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    The FAA cites turbulence as the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers in nonfatal accidents on commercial airlines. As airlines aren’t required to report more minor injuries, the total number of injuries is unclear.

    Fatalities, such as the Singapore Airlines incident, are also extremely uncommon. In March 2023, severe turbulence on a private jet resulted in the death of a former White House official. A December 1997 United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu also experienced turbulence that left one person dead.

    “Turbulence makes flights bumpy and can occasionally be dangerous,” says University of Reading meteorology researcher Mark Prosser. “Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150–500m annually in the USA alone. Every additional minute spent traveling through turbulence increases wear-and-tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants.”

    A study by the University of Reading reported that severe turbulence had increased by 55% in the past four decades due to the impact of climate change.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,070
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,631

    Sandpit said:

    It comes back to the difference between national statistics and personal finances, with the latter severely lagging the former.

    Oh, and the million people who are going to be remortaging from c.1% to c.5% over the next six months, many of whom are going to be forced sellers or raiding savings. Did I mention that before?

    Yep the drip drip of folk re-mortgaging at a higher rate will keep going for some time. My friends, not that interested in politics, are all putting the blame for those increases on the Conservative government. My suggestion that a sub 1% base rate was abnormal and 3% plus is a more historically appropriate figure gets short shrift.

    I almost feel sorry for the Conservatives - for all the rubbish the’ve done the interest rates are largely out of their control. They don’t set ‘em. They were low (for an abnormally long time) because of the financial crash and then COVID. Inevitably money was going to get back to a normal rate at some point. The Conservatives could have done without the Tuss-opcalypse - but I am not sure that we’d be in a particular different place without it.

    I guess if they benefited from cheap money for the last ten years (inflating asset prices and what not) then they should get punished when it is not cheap. It may be unfair, but who said politics is fair. Voters get to blame the people in charge.
    The difference that Truss makes is not that the economy is fundamentally in a worse place now because of her brief time in office (it is in a worse place but we'd not have dodged the wider economic headwinds had we dodged her). What matters is that she's made it really hard for the Tories to make claims on economic competence or blame global forces. So whenever they make such a claim, that's the response.

    It's like Black Wednesday in 1992. It wasn't really a factor in the economy by 1997 (indeed the economy was doing better than it is now). It's just that Labour could respond to any boast of ecomic competence with "but Black Wednesday, Lamont, singing in the bath..."
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,070

    MikeL said:

    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.

    Just an outside, outside chance that Rishi will call an election tomorrow following (relatively) good CPI numbers?

    Not sure that the voters will forget that cumulative inflation over the last two years is about 20% and those prices rises aren't going to reverse!
    Not impossible. And consistent mathematically, though not psychologically, with his clearly expressed view that it will be in the second half of the year. (The real calendar year splits into two unequal parts, with the Great Lacuna of the (English) school holiday marking half time, though they do things differently in Scotland.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,070
    edited May 21
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Still extremely scary. From the guardian


    “One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

    “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””

    Seven people with “critical head injuries”
    Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.

    (It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
    To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force

    And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
    You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
    Ah yes. That's actually quite calming, sounds so much better

    EDIT TO ADD: but of course you are quite right, in terms of physics. The plane basically lands on you
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,877
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    Look on the bright side; a decent bump on the head could do you the world of good.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,115
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Still extremely scary. From the guardian


    “One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

    “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””

    Seven people with “critical head injuries”
    Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.

    (It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
    To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force

    And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
    You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
    It's all relative.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,342
    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Still extremely scary. From the guardian


    “One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

    “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””

    Seven people with “critical head injuries”
    Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.

    (It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
    To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force

    And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
    You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
    Ah yes. That's actually quite calming, sounds so much better

    EDIT TO ADD: but of course you are quite right, in terms of physics. The plane basically lands on you
    The first time I ever had an MRI it reminded me of turbulence, just the sounds and fear that you were about to get crushed.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,221
    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Sky News are still reporting it.

    https://news.sky.com/story/singapore-airlines-is-flight-turbulence-getting-worse-and-what-types-are-there-13140799
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,662
    edited May 21
    Another thing in relation to interest rates / mortgages. Loads of people used help to buy, which requires you to take out an interest free loan for several years. The advice was don't pay that off, just remortgage your home when it expires and wrap it into the remaining principle as interest rates are so low. Now 10,000s of being faced with double whammy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/12/help-buy-scheme-first-time-buyers-downsize/

    Easing of inflation isn't going to make these people any happier.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,115
    Controvesial take of the day ?

    I am not a Costner guy, but him writing a $38 million dollar personal check for a four-part Western epic as his wife is like, “Kevin, I’m leaving you if you do this” is one of the funniest things to ever happen and I have to respect it
    https://x.com/JFrankensteiner/status/1792731151850680380
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,670
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    To adjust a recent formulation, the passenger apparently died of a heart attack ‘with’ turbulence, not ‘of’ turbulence.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: a clarification.

    The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.

    This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member:
    If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807

    300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.

    Sky News are still reporting it.

    https://news.sky.com/story/singapore-airlines-is-flight-turbulence-getting-worse-and-what-types-are-there-13140799
    Of course they are!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,662

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    To adjust a recent formulation, the passenger apparently died of a heart attack ‘with’ turbulence, not ‘of’ turbulence.
    Back to good old COVID days...
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    There's some duff footage doing the rounds on Twitter of the SQ321 in-flight turbulence - dead give-away is the economy seats do not have in-seat video, which SQ does (and has had for decades).
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,277
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    You're flying Air France? Condolences.

    Might I recommend a xanax? So no matter how bad it gets, you will be utterly indifferent to the bad food and poor service.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,963

    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.

    We've had two tax increases. That they cut NI to reduce the amount of increase does not mean it is anything other than an increase.

    There is often a disconnect between the paper economy - statistics - and the real economy - prices and people's personal budgets. Currently the disconnect is large, and the government seem blissfully aware that saying "we have cut your taxes" as people's tax bills rise is a bit bloody stupid.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,946

    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.

    Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,522

    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.

    It’s been paid for by fiscal drag - tax bands not being moved with inflation/general rate of pay increases.

    So it’s just shifting the tax burden round.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    edited May 21
    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,941

    That's the sort of thing that can put people off flying again for life. Not just the passengers but sometimes the cabin crew too.

    Jesus.

    The closest I have ever come to drinking alcohol was when I experienced very bad turbulence.

    Afterwards the pilot observed it wasn't even in the top 50 of bad turbulence he had ever experienced.
    It's a different matter for the pilots.

    I do wonder how blasé some of them are about it. Maybe because they're incentivised for rapid turnaround and maybe even welcome a challenge given how boring flights can be.

    It should be a core duty of pilots (recognising this isn't always possible) to avoid all sorts of turbulence, and airlines to prioritise comfort and safety over absolute speed.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,342
    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,941
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    I can imagine a heart attack could easily be brought on by the stress of it.

    And no-one is going to be enjoying their business trips and holidays after the trauma of that.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,946

    The thing with tax rises / cuts, fiscal drag etc, most people actually don't pay super close attention to their pay slip and how those numbers are changing. I doubt people notice a difference of £50 here or there and certainly not how that compares to several years ago.

    It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).

    What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.

    Yes fiscal drift is a lot less painful when wages are rising in real terms. It is now for the majority but few will forget how hard the last 2 years have been.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,004
    edited May 21
    ...
    DavidL said:

    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.

    Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
    Opposite way around?

    The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.

    Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,026
    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Mrs Sunak on the bid?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,342
    “They may as well go now and not be prisoner of events.”

    @Dannythefink says he’s picked up “a bit of talk in government circles” that a general election in July could be on the cards.

    🗳️ How To Win An Election
    🎧 http://pod.fo/e/23e1c1

    @MattChorley @PollyMackenzie


    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1792916984528605575
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,941

    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
    "Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.

    I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.

    November or December it will be.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    edited May 21

    That's the sort of thing that can put people off flying again for life. Not just the passengers but sometimes the cabin crew too.

    Jesus.

    The closest I have ever come to drinking alcohol was when I experienced very bad turbulence.

    Afterwards the pilot observed it wasn't even in the top 50 of bad turbulence he had ever experienced.
    It's a different matter for the pilots.

    I do wonder how blasé some of them are about it. Maybe because they're incentivised for rapid turnaround and maybe even welcome a challenge given how boring flights can be.

    It should be a core duty of pilots (recognising this isn't always possible) to avoid all sorts of turbulence, and airlines to prioritise comfort and safety over absolute speed.
    Oh they do. Pilots really don’t like turbulence either, and airlines don’t like injuring their staff and customers, nor the maintainance costs on planes that result.

    There’s quite a difference between everyday bumpiness, and unexpectedly banging into severe clear air turbulence.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,941

    The thing with tax rises / cuts, fiscal drag etc, most people actually don't pay super close attention to their pay slip and how those numbers are changing. I doubt people notice a difference of £50 here or there and certainly not how that compares to several years ago.

    It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).

    What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.

    I've essentially run much faster to stand still the last few years. And, in entering the 100k tax trap, I seem unable to escape it.

    Next move for us (and we really didn't want to do this) is to can kick out the mortgage term from 17.5 years back up to 25 years.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,396
    MikeL said:

    July GE has shortened significantly on Betfair today.

    Now 5.5 back / 6.8 lay

    This has in turn caused November to go slightly odds against.

    What has driven this?

    July GE would surely have to be called within the next week assuming one week wash-up, say:

    Announcement 29 May

    Dissolve Parliament 5 June

    GE 11 July

    11 July surely last realistic date before summer holidays.

    As I mentioned on the last thread, a normally well informed* acquaintance mentioned July last night IRL. I don't see the rationale but there seems to be a bit of chatter about it for whatever reason.

    * well informed about things in general, as an investor, not about British politics in particular.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,662
    edited May 21

    ...

    DavidL said:

    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.

    Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
    Opposite way around?

    The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.

    Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
    I posted a link to a WSJ graphic on the last thread about real term wealth increase of US families. Its basically zero over Biden's presidency, where as Trump's it was up significantly, and Biden is trying to same rhetoric, that the economy has never been so good, its absolutely flying.

    The reality is those that hold assets it is, as stock market is well up, but those that don't, all that inflation has increased your McD's to $15, that isn't never going away.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Injuries - 7 critical, 23 "medium" - including a FA, 9 "minor" and 16 "minimum" - they've assumed the fatality was heart attack/heart failure, but I guess they don't know yet.

    https://x.com/AP/status/1792941010277843102
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,946
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
    I remember a flight from Manchester to Edinburgh a few years ago. First we were
    told the trolley service was cancelled. Then we saw the cabin crew strapping themselves in with their cross body safetybelts. At which point I thought “ah fuck” which ultimately didn’t quite cover it.
  • Options
    DopermeanDopermean Posts: 35

    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
    "Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.

    I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.

    November or December it will be.
    Betfair currently showing August as favourite at 2!
    Good opportunity to get on the Autumn / winter months at decent odds
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,941
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    You're flying Air France? Condolences.

    Might I recommend a xanax? So no matter how bad it gets, you will be utterly indifferent to the bad food and poor service.
    Air Chance.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,394
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government

    I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,662
    edited May 21
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
    I remember a flight from Manchester to Edinburgh a few years ago. First we were
    told the trolley service was cancelled. Then we saw the cabin crew strapping themselves in with their cross body safetybelts. At which point I thought “ah fuck” which ultimately didn’t quite cover it.
    I had a 3hr flight last year like that. The captain came on the tannoy after about 15-20 mins to say cabin crew will be strapped in for the whole flight, do not ring the bell, nobody is coming. And we were subsequently shaken like mad for at least 2hrs straight.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Dopermean said:

    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
    "Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.

    I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.

    November or December it will be.
    Betfair currently showing August as favourite at 2!
    Good opportunity to get on the Autumn / winter months at decent odds
    August is 150 on Betfair exchange
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,404

    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
    "Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.

    I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.

    November or December it will be.
    I'm sure there has been lots of discussion in party / government circles about a July GE and even some consideration of 4 or 11 July. But it remains unlikely not impossible.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,396
    My eldest daughter turns 18 on July 20th and will be gutted if the election is on July 11th!
    She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,807
    God that SQ flight, London to Changi, is the one I've taken more than any other - at least a dozen times. What a terrifying ordeal.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Could be worse we could have a house price crash on to of everything
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,236
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government


    Proportionately, it would be 4 or 5 seats! (156=>2 == 365=>4.68) Which would be quite extraordinary. And, as you say, almost impossible.

    That said, anything less than ~50-60 seats would be something close to functional obliteration. Somewhat unlikely but not impossible.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,342
    When you need to hide war crimes....

    BREAKING: Israeli officials seize AP equipment and take down live shot of northern Gaza, citing new media law.

    https://x.com/AP/status/1792905027331265001
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,007
    DavidL said:

    The thing with tax rises / cuts, fiscal drag etc, most people actually don't pay super close attention to their pay slip and how those numbers are changing. I doubt people notice a difference of £50 here or there and certainly not how that compares to several years ago.

    It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).

    What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.

    Yes fiscal drift is a lot less painful when wages are rising in real terms. It is now for the majority but few will forget how hard the last 2 years have been.
    It is better to have a pay rise and pay more tax, than not have a pay rise at all.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,208

    MikeL said:

    Massive Betfair move.

    July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?

    July 3.35
    Oct 5.6
    Nov 2.42
    Dec 9

    Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
    "Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.

    I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.

    November or December it will be.
    Looking at the timetables...

    House goes off for Whitsun holidays this Thursday. They come back Monday 3rd June. So if they want to do things conventionally, with a week or so of washup and saying goodbye and promising to write every day, earliest easy dissolution is June 12 with an election July 18.

    Possible, and conventions can be broken, but not easy.

    After that, the next natural dates are early September dissolution for a mid October election.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,962
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
    The only way to do that is have it on all the time
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,084
    edited May 21
    I got on July at 50s.


    That's funny! It shows £2 stake to win £98.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,946

    ...

    DavidL said:

    Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.

    And yet not a ripple in the polls.

    Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.

    Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
    Opposite way around?

    The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.

    Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
    Where do you live? I got a tank at 151p for diesel yesterday. The only time I pay anything like that is when I get caught in a motorway service station.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,069
    edited May 21
    Sandpit said:

    That's the sort of thing that can put people off flying again for life. Not just the passengers but sometimes the cabin crew too.

    Jesus.

    The closest I have ever come to drinking alcohol was when I experienced very bad turbulence.

    Afterwards the pilot observed it wasn't even in the top 50 of bad turbulence he had ever experienced.
    It's a different matter for the pilots.

    I do wonder how blasé some of them are about it. Maybe because they're incentivised for rapid turnaround and maybe even welcome a challenge given how boring flights can be.

    It should be a core duty of pilots (recognising this isn't always possible) to avoid all sorts of turbulence, and airlines to prioritise comfort and safety over absolute speed.
    Oh they do. Pilots really don’t like turbulence either, and airlines don’t like injuring their staff and customers, nor the maintainance costs on planes that result.

    There’s quite a difference between everyday bumpiness, and unexpectedly banging into severe clear air turbulence.
    I'm not convinced this would count as clear air turbulence given they were in the ITCZ.

    I doubt they flew into a monster storm, but there would definitely have been storms in the vicinity.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    Parliament is on Whitsun recess from 23 May, returning on 3 June.

    So unless that's changed, they can't do any wash-up next week.

    So looks very tight indeed:

    Wash-up starts 3 June

    Dissolve 6 June

    GE 11 July

    I'm not sure that would be enough time for wash-up and bear in mind D-Day celebrations that week.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,807

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.

    No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
    The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.

    It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
    Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week

    Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
    Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
    The only way to do that is have it on all the time
    Which I do. It's just as comfortable on as off, so a no-brainer.
This discussion has been closed.