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The return of Farage – politicalbetting.com
The return of Farage – politicalbetting.com
NEW JLP polling in @thesunVoting intention if @Nigel_Farage returns to lead Reform UK (change on standard voting intention) Labour 41% (-4)Conservative 21% (-4)Reform UK 16% (+6)Lib Dem 11% (-)Other 11% (+2)Tables: https://t.co/BozWy47mBbStory: https://t.co/gmYlpNqpF2
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LAB still winning though!
They'll do well to break 5% nationwide at a GE with or without the spiv
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime
And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
"Suppose Rishi Sunak stays Conservative leader but that Nigel Farage returns to frontline politics as the leader of the Reform Party before the next election Amongst other things, he would likely make the argument the Government had failed on migration."
Could be that some voters are reacting against the migration bit?
But there’s still no pick to be the new prime minister, hinting at ongoing disagreement."
https://www.politico.eu/article/geert-wilders-new-netherlands-government-far-right/
"Dutch far right to form coalition government"
https://www.ft.com/content/336be8d2-ee91-430c-8cda-a7a24e18f177
It was a surprise for me, really enjoyed its low key approach, and subtle criticism of its own protagonists.
Article from yesterday:
https://www.politico.eu/article/commissioner-upbraids-slovakia-on-changes-to-ngo-public-media-laws-robert-fico/
Every one of those spam emails/calls is an attempted crime. It passes straight over our heads.
Presumably Čaputová will have to decide on a replacement if he's out of action. Does anyone know if there's a process for it?
Hopefully that will be moot because he will be OK but it doesn't sound good at the moment as you say.
Edit - it had not occurred to me that the presidency is also in transition right now - new president next month...
There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.
There are exceptions. Probably many think they're freer. That's because they're schizo.
I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.
You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.
If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.
And food is expensive, people are struggling, so there probably is a market for Eastern European Delboy to flog cheese at £1 a packet.
The changes are with that poll.
The ill defined nature of the sides felt very deliberate and central to the theme, and the dropping of details through the film about the President in an almost casual way, up to the big finale, designed to ensure we didn't root for a particular side, but to focus on all the people trying to avoid it all, and the people fighting who barely cared anymore which side they were on.
The one time it did try to get into one person's motive (the 'what kind of american are you' bit) felt out of place as a result.
I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.
It's the second time I've seen something like that happen at the same shop. The first time, a couple of months previously, a fairly large junior employee set off in pursuit, only to be hauled back by the manager and told to not go after the shoplifter.
As others have noted in the previous thread, presumably at some point the shop will just close down.
Eventually the gang got caught and they had done 20 or so small village Post Offices and shops. The problem for them was they had convinced themselves much easier to knock over these small rural outlets and get away before the police got to them, however there was 4-5 of them doing it and each raid was netting sometimes only £100s.
But this was before google maps and they weren't local, so they were travelling from several hours, then had to find these shops, another day or two to scout them out, nick the car for the job, etc. It was a full time job commuting to do the job, and they basically would have been better just having a normal job for the amount they were making.
2. Fico gets shot.
3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.
His what?
I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.
Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.
Many of the shots were in his abdomen. Let's hope he recovers.
PS Ursula von der Leyen stuck her steel toecap in: "Such acts of violence have no place in our society and undermine democracy, our most precious common good." Seriously who is a person with a background and CV like hers to talk about "democracy", "our society", and the "common good"?
Many probably thought Farage was head of Reform anyway. It's like asking "would you prefer Rice Krispies or Cornflakes?" then "what about if the Cornflakes were fortified with vitamins and iron?" I bet you'd get a few people changing their choice simply because they were being prompted.
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-gets-donald-trump-job-offer-us-election-campaign/#:~:text=In his Monday interview, Farage,Trump's campaign,” Farage said.
Addendum - Agree with final sentence, which was added after I queried what the rest of the post (except penultimate sentence which was also added).
And Georgian protests are no doubt a CIA-backed colour revolution.
*glances nervously, and upwards, to the left, speaks with a muffled voice, wincing as his blooded teeth fall out*
"Did I get it right?"
I thought instead of relying on a tweet I'd go and look at the data in the tables.
The first point is the original 45-25 is turnout weighted and excludes DKs.
The wording of the next quetion is as follows: "Suppose Rishi Sunak stays Conservative leader but that Nigel Farage returns to frontline politics as the leader of the Reform Party before the next election Amongst other things, he would likely make the argument the Government had failed on migration. With Don't knows removed
That's where the initial shift is derived. The next question is: Which party would you vote for if there were a General Election tomorrow? Just asked to those who say they would vote
That produces an 18-point Labour lead (41-23) with the LDs on 10%, Reform on 9% and DKs on 9%
When the 9% DKs were asked to which party they were leaning, 36% remained DK, 19% Labour, 14% LD, 12% Conservative and 11% Reform.
My first conclusion on the numbers is the Farage supporters are mostly among the DKs or the WVs and there's little evidence, unless Farage returns, they would be tempted to back any other party.
Start reading some simpler posts maybe. See @ydoethur's effort:
"Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old. I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins."
I realise it's a joke, but reflect awhile on the difference between "detained for shooting" and "who shot" before working your way up to thinking about more complex posts or ones that require a little more depth of understanding.
Meanwhile, the Sun newspaper is really it giving it some:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/27935944/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/
They are practically painting Fico as a walking lump of poop who had it coming to him.
I would, but not if it looked like I was in a world that was constantly on fire and dripping in blood
The reason I would be inclined to say this isn't the CIA in fact is because the shooter did get near enough to hit Fico. The CIA would more likely have blown up the town, and then given the completely unhurt Fico a box of chocolates.
We rely on news media to keep us informed, and their commercial success is only loosely correlated with presenting a best-faith representation of the world as it is.
Fox News is an extreme example of that, but a lot of UK news outlets are problematic enough.
Todays #PMQs shows why Sunak's latest Vote-for-Me-or-it's-World-War-Three "relaunch", just like the many resets before it, is doomed to fail. A short 🧵 1/
Here is the basic issue: Tory MPs, at every level, look at the same polls we do and they are desperate. That panic is poor counsel. They will get more tribal, noisier, more aggressive, baser. They will reach for personal attacks, for culture wars, for stunts, for cheap digs. 2/
In today's #PMQs, the biggest noise came when the PM made a cheap jibe about Sue Gray. "MORE MORE MORE" his MPs chanted, as he tried (and failed) to pivot to cosplaying a grown-up.
For "trust us, we are serious people" to work, actually being serious people is a precondition. 3/
The same thing happened later. Starmer stuttered. The whole of the Tory side went ballistic. "This proves he's not fit to lead this country", shot a delighted Sunak. Ten seconds later he was, again unsuccessfully, trying to pivot from fratboy bully to solemn statesman. 4/
This is not confined to parliament, either. It runs through the current crop like a stick of rock. When Johnson "purged" the party of most serious, intelligent one-nation Tories, the true legacy is that he geared it for only ONE kind of politics. And it ain't the serious kind. 5/
So, prepare for another reset in June - who knows to what? - because truth is that, however smart the "dangerous times" strategy looked in a Levido focus group, Sunak lacks the heft and the staff to make it credible. Banning lanyards is, tragically, about the right level. 6/6 END
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/slovakia-shooting-robert-fico-latest-gun-attack-b2545542.html
I'm thrilled to announce that I've joined @AnthropicAI as their Chief Product Officer!
https://x.com/mikeyk/status/1790744229616259547
For those that don't know, he co-founded Instagram.
'Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, has claimed that she never proposed a “ban'” on civil servants wearing rainbow lanyards, or other ones conveying a political message, in her speech on Monday.'
Mind, it got PB excited ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4n1ndlknk1o
Not sure that this means that the Tories get that vote "back" though. Quite a bit of Reform is "none of the above" and that is as likely to go Green or even Lib Dem, as to the Tories.
https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1790790908381905294?s=46
"I want a very simple but visible change to occur too – the lanyards worn to carry security passes shouldn’t be a random pick and mix, they should be a standard design reflecting that we are all members of the government delivering for the citizens of the UK.
Working in the Civil Service is all about leaving your political views at the building entrance.
Trying to introduce them by the back door via lanyards should not happen."
https://cps.org.uk/events/post/2024/speech-by-the-rt-hon-esther-mcvey-mp/
The only logical conclusion that reconciles both statements is that rainbow lanyards will now become the standard design. I'm sure that will make everyone happy.
I do have a horrible feeling, though, that the Tories might try to make age an issue in the campaign - so watch out for them taking Starmer's line out of context and turning it into a "how do you do, fellow kids?"-type meme.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/adding-ugly-record-trump-mocks-bidens-stutter-rcna142802
Just unnatural.
It contained a personal message from Charles and Camilla, duly signed in black ink, congratulating us on our diamond wedding anniversary (60 years) for tomorrow
The family are delighted that we received this recognition and our 12 year old granddaughter was so non plussed she just said 'no way' then promptly told everyone in her class
We are having a family weekend here at home and lunch at a leading Llandudno Hotel on Sunday but we are so amazed how 'tempus fugit' and that we arrived at this milestone with lots of caring, humour and the love of our family of 3 children and 5 grandchildren. Additionally we reflect on the last six months of serious health problems I have had, and thank medical science and the consultants, doctors and nurses for my pacemaker to help us achieve our diamond anniversary
I would just say that on politics I just want Sunak to call an election and let the voters decide on our next government, but personally my wife and I are grateful for so many blessings and at our age it really isn't a big deal who arrives in No 10 later this year
I would end by saying that we have always travelled extensively, initially with the children but since 2005 worldwide from the Artic to the Antarctic and all places in between but know with our health and age issues we will not travel beyond our shores again, but we have so many memories, and my advice is always try to do your 'bucket list' as early as you can as you never know what is round the corner
100% agree. And would be an interesting addition to the game, with a new premium on clever captains. But, the way it has actually been implemented has been unimaginably awful.
"I want a very simple but visible change to occur too – the lanyards worn to carry security passes shouldn’t be a random pick and mix, they should be a standard design reflecting that we are all members of the government delivering for the citizens of the UK.
Working in the Civil Service is all about leaving your political views at the building entrance.
Trying to introduce them by the back door via lanyards should not happen."
(https://cps.org.uk/events/post/2024/speech-by-the-rt-hon-esther-mcvey-mp/)
So whilst she didn't specifically mention rainbow lanyards, it's a bit disingenuous of her to claim she wasn't talking about a ban on "ones conveying a political message".
(I think the first specific mention of rainbow lanyards came from the Telegraph's write-up, who presumably will have been briefed about it)
You slagged me off on here, saying I owed you money, when I owed you nothing, and had no right of reply as I was banned from the site
As soon as I was unbanned I messaged you to say I wanted to void the bet and you said you were fine with that
I didn't reply because I thought/think you were/are/had been a twat about it all, and would rather not engage, then a year or so later you start talking about the bet as if it is still on!
It sums up the slimy toad that you are, and you still have the nerve to say I acted badly when I have agreed to wear it rather than settle halfway! Incredible
It's worth the £300 just to have the moral high ground and know what a sly rat you are
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1790705176707293422?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
'As the Times reports, asked what was wrong with civil servants wearing a rainbow lanyard to express solidarity with LGBT people, McVey replied:
You don’t need political activism in a visible way … you’re putting it on to make a statement, and what we’re saying is actually, your political beliefs remain at the front door and when you come in, you’re part of a happy team'
"Wow. Looks like Slovak PM Robert Fico's reported assailant, writer Juraj Cintula, was associated with pro-Russian paramilitary group Slovenskí Branci (SB). Their leader was even trained by Russian ex-Spetsnaz soldiers."
https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1790789652078526939