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The return of Farage – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 15 in General
imageThe return of Farage – politicalbetting.com

NEW JLP polling in @thesunVoting intention if @Nigel_Farage returns to lead Reform UK (change on standard voting intention) Labour 41% (-4)Conservative 21% (-4)Reform UK 16% (+6)Lib Dem 11% (-)Other 11% (+2)Tables: https://t.co/BozWy47mBbStory: https://t.co/gmYlpNqpF2

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Comments

  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,253
    I expect Reform poll ratings to fall away as GE approaches. An inconvenience rather than an extinction threat to CON.

    LAB still winning though!
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,931
    Interesting rise in Others. Why would Farage leading Reform make people more likely to vote SNP, Green, etc?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,973
    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 15
    16.9% in perfect conditions in one seat, 5.9% capital wide on the list, almost no recognisable names, no local organisation, reliant on loans and donations from Tice.
    They'll do well to break 5% nationwide at a GE with or without the spiv
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,740

    Interesting rise in Others. Why would Farage leading Reform make people more likely to vote SNP, Green, etc?

    Current Reform voters who can't stand Farage and would then move to vote for Lozza Fox, Britain First or someone else in that space?
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823

    Interesting rise in Others. Why would Farage leading Reform make people more likely to vote SNP, Green, etc?

    The question was:
    "Suppose Rishi Sunak stays Conservative leader but that Nigel Farage returns to frontline politics as the leader of the Reform Party before the next election Amongst other things, he would likely make the argument the Government had failed on migration."

    Could be that some voters are reacting against the migration bit?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!

    I liked the film a lot, it was more understated and contemplative than I expected, but I honestly didn't get a direct Trump vibe from it (not least from California and Texas being on the same side), not least because of how it slow rolled info on what the conflict within it was even about.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 15
    'Something that implies you might be more likely to vote Reform happens. How will you vote now?'
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Farage might as well 'return'. He doesn't need to actually stand anywhere he might conceivably be elected, and given how beloved he is in some Tory circles where they are desperate to punish the current ruling clique, he is bound to consign them to an even bigger defeat, which will only increase his influence on any Tory reformulation.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    edited May 15
    "Far-right Geert Wilders announces new Dutch government deal
    But there’s still no pick to be the new prime minister, hinting at ongoing disagreement."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/geert-wilders-new-netherlands-government-far-right/

    "Dutch far right to form coalition government"

    https://www.ft.com/content/336be8d2-ee91-430c-8cda-a7a24e18f177
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,237

    Interesting rise in Others. Why would Farage leading Reform make people more likely to vote SNP, Green, etc?

    Tories seen as heading for oblivion so left wing voters sense they can afford to peel away from Labour without putting the result in jeopardy?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164

    Interesting rise in Others. Why would Farage leading Reform make people more likely to vote SNP, Green, etc?

    I would have thought it would have encouraged people to vote mainstream. Especially Labour or LibDem. Keep the man out.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!

    The film very carefully avoids any indication or hint of who the good guys and bad guys are 'in universe'
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited May 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
    Unleaded petrol vs deferential society, the dominant drivers of crime apparently.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,949
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    No, we need to get back to the deferential, traditional society of the Debatable Lands, Hot Trod and Original Blackmail (TM)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!

    The film very carefully avoids any indication or hint of who the good guys and bad guys are 'in universe'
    I think it drops enough hints throughout the film that the President is a wrong 'un, but the deliberate vagueness of which side is which in the various conflict situations the characters witness, and openness of each to commit war crimes in full view of journalists, indicates things are pretty darn messed up all around.

    It was a surprise for me, really enjoyed its low key approach, and subtle criticism of its own protagonists.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
    Surveys that ask "do you think crime levels are rising or falling?" invariably show that people think crime is rising, irrespective of underlying trends.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Robert Fico had said he would end the era of "NGO supremacy" in Slovakia. In particular, he wanted organisations that receive lots of money from abroad to be registered as foreign agents.

    Article from yesterday:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/commissioner-upbraids-slovakia-on-changes-to-ngo-public-media-laws-robert-fico/
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,077
    News reports don't sound good for Fico. Whatever you think of him it would surely be better that he survived.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
    Surveys that ask "do you think crime levels are rising or falling?" invariably show that people think crime is rising, irrespective of underlying trends.
    Turns out the public really do get some things very wrong. It's not patronising to say that when it is the case, though politicians would be advised not to put it that way.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    16.9% in perfect conditions in one seat, 5.9% capital wide on the list, almost no recognisable names, no local organisation, reliant on loans and donations from Tice.
    They'll do well to break 5% nationwide at a GE with or without the spiv

    Let's say for sake of argument most of that comes from the Tories but some amount are from others or non-voters, and that's what, 4% taken from the Tories nationally? Enough to turn a big defeat into an apocaplypse, potentially.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,740
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I think this is right, but there is an important change. Everyone simply assumes, without thinking much about it, that every day, all the time, particular people are trying to commit a crime against you via the medium of the internet, scam emails, phishing, hacking, phone contact and so on. What is new is that criminals can try it on all the time with millions of people at low cost to themselves.

    Every one of those spam emails/calls is an attempted crime. It passes straight over our heads.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    edited May 15

    News reports don't sound good for Fico. Whatever you think of him it would surely be better that he survived.

    At risk of sounding rather cold hearted, surely the worst outcome is if he survives but is incapacitated for a long time (or for ever). That really would be a recipe for chaos.

    Presumably Čaputová will have to decide on a replacement if he's out of action. Does anyone know if there's a process for it?

    Hopefully that will be moot because he will be OK but it doesn't sound good at the moment as you say.

    Edit - it had not occurred to me that the presidency is also in transition right now - new president next month...
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679
    Under 10.5% feels like strong value to me. A bet on whether Reform will poll higher or lower than the Greens would be interesting, and I'd be surprised if the Greens poll closer to 10% than 5%.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 15
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!

    The film very carefully avoids any indication or hint of who the good guys and bad guys are 'in universe'
    I think it drops enough hints throughout the film that the President is a wrong 'un, but the deliberate vagueness of which side is which in the various conflict situations the characters witness, and openness of each to commit war crimes in full view of journalists, indicates things are pretty darn messed up all around.

    It was a surprise for me, really enjoyed its low key approach, and subtle criticism of its own protagonists.
    I think the viewer is left to draw their own conclusions. It's not about the legendarium of that universe but the individuals. That's what makes it an interesting watch, it doesn't play the white hat, black hat cowboy game
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
    It doesn't. Society is at least as deferential as it always was, if not more so. Smartphones have just continued the lobotomisation in which the early strides forward were made by television.

    There are exceptions. Probably many think they're freer. That's because they're schizo.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,367
    edited May 15
    From previous thread, retelling the cheese nicking from co-op.

    I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.

    You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.

    If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.

    And food is expensive, people are struggling, so there probably is a market for Eastern European Delboy to flog cheese at £1 a packet.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
    Unleaded petrol vs deferential society, the dominant drivers of crime apparently.
    Or closure of long term psychiatric hospitals.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 15
    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They ran a poll consecutively with this one (no Farage) from which the -4s come.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,973
    edited May 15
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!

    I liked the film a lot, it was more understated and contemplative than I expected, but I honestly didn't get a direct Trump vibe from it (not least from California and Texas being on the same side), not least because of how it slow rolled info on what the conflict within it was even about.
    I got the impression that the writer/director was torn. It seemed inspired by the insurrection but he seemed keen to keep the parallels to a minimum such as the 'Texas California' mention which was very brief and the fact that the two sides were so ill defined it was impossible to know who was fighting who.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    From previous thread, retelling the cheese nicking from co-op.

    I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.

    You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.

    If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.

    You've persuaded me of the scenario, I'm going to head out and nick some cheese right now.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They conducted a standard VI poll at the same time. Then added the Farage leading Reform question as a supllementary.

    The changes are with that poll.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They ran a poll consecutively with this one (no Farage) from which the -4s come.
    Still rather out of line with their previous polling then.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 15
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They ran a poll consecutively with this one (no Farage) from which the -4s come.
    Still rather out of line with their previous polling then.
    Yes. I suspect that this duo of polls does not have a DK filter and redistribution a la Opinium applied, their regular polling does.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting film 'Civil War' Clearly anticipating the return of Trump. Flawed but entertaining and who knows could well be a vision of America a few years hence!

    I liked the film a lot, it was more understated and contemplative than I expected, but I honestly didn't get a direct Trump vibe from it (not least from California and Texas being on the same side), not least because of how it slow rolled info on what the conflict within it was even about.
    I got the impression that the writer/director was torn. It seemed inspired by the insurrection but he seemed keen to keep the parallels to a minimum such as the 'Texas California' mention was very brief and the fact that the two sides were so ill defined it was impossible to know who was fighting who.
    My impression was not that the writer/director was torn, but that he wanted something both more open to interpretation, and to be a more lasting message about the impacts of civil war and strife not connected to any particular real world situation, regardless of what inspired it, so that it has more resonance as a story. And that some critics may not have liked that it was that open and would have preferred something more 'orange man is bad'.

    The ill defined nature of the sides felt very deliberate and central to the theme, and the dropping of details through the film about the President in an almost casual way, up to the big finale, designed to ensure we didn't root for a particular side, but to focus on all the people trying to avoid it all, and the people fighting who barely cared anymore which side they were on.

    The one time it did try to get into one person's motive (the 'what kind of american are you' bit) felt out of place as a result.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,050

    From previous thread, retelling the cheese nicking from co-op.

    I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.

    You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.

    If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.

    And food is expensive, people are struggling, so there probably is a market for Eastern European Delboy to flog cheese at £1 a packet.

    And I suppose the risk/reward works out because these guys realise there's absolutely zero chance of them getting caught. The fact that they were taking their time to pop the loot into a rucksack a hundred yards down the road suggested zero fear of being followed or the police being called.

    It's the second time I've seen something like that happen at the same shop. The first time, a couple of months previously, a fairly large junior employee set off in pursuit, only to be hauled back by the manager and told to not go after the shoplifter.

    As others have noted in the previous thread, presumably at some point the shop will just close down.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,367
    edited May 15
    kle4 said:

    From previous thread, retelling the cheese nicking from co-op.

    I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.

    You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.

    If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.

    You've persuaded me of the scenario, I'm going to head out and nick some cheese right now.
    It reminds me a story from my youth. The local village Post Office got held up for the cash. But being tiny village, it really didn't hold much. And the next village got done a few weeks later, on and on.

    Eventually the gang got caught and they had done 20 or so small village Post Offices and shops. The problem for them was they had convinced themselves much easier to knock over these small rural outlets and get away before the police got to them, however there was 4-5 of them doing it and each raid was netting sometimes only £100s.

    But this was before google maps and they weren't local, so they were travelling from several hours, then had to find these shops, another day or two to scout them out, nick the car for the job, etc. It was a full time job commuting to do the job, and they basically would have been better just having a normal job for the amount they were making.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679
    ydoethur said:

    News reports don't sound good for Fico. Whatever you think of him it would surely be better that he survived.

    At risk of sounding rather cold hearted, surely the worst outcome is if he survives but is incapacitated for a long time (or for ever). That really would be a recipe for chaos.

    Presumably Čaputová will have to decide on a replacement if he's out of action. Does anyone know if there's a process for it?

    Hopefully that will be moot because he will be OK but it doesn't sound good at the moment as you say.

    Edit - it had not occurred to me that the presidency is also in transition right now - new president next month...
    There are three deputy Prime Ministers, including one from Fico's party, SMER. He's also the Defence minister.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    ydoethur said:

    News reports don't sound good for Fico. Whatever you think of him it would surely be better that he survived.

    At risk of sounding rather cold hearted, surely the worst outcome is if he survives but is incapacitated for a long time (or for ever). That really would be a recipe for chaos.

    Presumably Čaputová will have to decide on a replacement if he's out of action. Does anyone know if there's a process for it?

    Hopefully that will be moot because he will be OK but it doesn't sound good at the moment as you say.

    Edit - it had not occurred to me that the presidency is also in transition right now - new president next month...
    There are three deputy Prime Ministers, including one from Fico's party, SMER. He's also the Defence minister.
    So presumably the obvious candidate would be the DPM from Fico's own party?
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 15
    1. Fico steps up the fight against foreign-funded organisations and the media, and they do the opposite of lying down and taking it.
    2. Fico gets shot.
    3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.

    His what?

    I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.

    Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.

    Many of the shots were in his abdomen. Let's hope he recovers.

    PS Ursula von der Leyen stuck her steel toecap in: "Such acts of violence have no place in our society and undermine democracy, our most precious common good." Seriously who is a person with a background and CV like hers to talk about "democracy", "our society", and the "common good"?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    The alleged name and identity is being fairly widely shared on social media
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They conducted a standard VI poll at the same time. Then added the Farage leading Reform question as a supllementary.

    The changes are with that poll.
    Hard to know how you would prompt this without hitting the leading question problem. "What would your vote be if Farage became leader of Reform" is a very good way of a. putting Reform top of mind, b. implying that received wisdom is he'd do a better job for them.

    Many probably thought Farage was head of Reform anyway. It's like asking "would you prefer Rice Krispies or Cornflakes?" then "what about if the Cornflakes were fortified with vitamins and iron?" I bet you'd get a few people changing their choice simply because they were being prompted.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 113
    Since The Nige' apparently has been offered a possible role by The Donald I can't see him yet again returning to Brexit Party PLC (major shareholder one N. Farage). Honestly! He's little more than a cut price, end of the pier Arfur Daley conman.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-gets-donald-trump-job-offer-us-election-campaign/#:~:text=In his Monday interview, Farage,Trump's campaign,” Farage said.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They ran a poll consecutively with this one (no Farage) from which the -4s come.
    Still rather out of line with their previous polling then.
    Yes. I suspect that this duo of polls does not have a DK filter and redistribution a la Opinium applied, their regular polling does.
    Yes, it's simply "With Don't Knows removed".
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    edited May 15
    Donkeys said:

    1. Fico steps up the fight against foreign-funded organisations and the media, and they do the opposite of lying down and taking it.
    2. Fico gets shot.
    3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.

    His what?

    I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.

    Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.

    Many of the shots were in his abdomen. Let's hope he recovers.

    ???????

    Addendum - Agree with final sentence, which was added after I queried what the rest of the post (except penultimate sentence which was also added).
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Donkeys said:

    1. Fico steps up the fight against foreign-funded organisations and the media, and they do the opposite of lying down and taking it.
    2. Fico gets shot.
    3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.

    His what?

    I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.

    Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.



    So you're telling us Fico was done in by the CIA, right?
    And Georgian protests are no doubt a CIA-backed colour revolution.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    Is there nothing old people can’t do nowadays? President of America, porn-star shagger, political assassin. I used to dread old age but I’m off to fake a US birth certificate, buy some viagra and get down the pistol range to get in shape for my seventies.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,031
    Donkeys said:

    1. Fico steps up the fight against foreign-funded organisations and the media, and they do the opposite of lying down and taking it.
    2. Fico gets shot.
    3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.

    His what?

    I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.

    Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.

    Many of the shots were in his abdomen. Let's hope he recovers.

    PS Ursula von der Leyen stuck her steel toecap in: "Such acts of violence have no place in our society and undermine democracy, our most precious common good." Seriously who is a person with a background and CV like hers to talk about "democracy" and the "common good"?

    I suppose his "official social media account" means his account on Twitter.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    Why can't a 71 year old be a professional assassin?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,367
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    Why can't a 71 year old be a professional assassin?
    Union rules.....must take retirement at 70.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    Leon said:

    I just want to say that @TheScreamingEagles is enormously handsome, profoundly wise, and hung like an Arab stallion on Cialis. And @rcs1000 is like Einstein with the socio-sexual confidence of mid-season Genghis Khan

    *glances nervously, and upwards, to the left, speaks with a muffled voice, wincing as his blooded teeth fall out*

    "Did I get it right?"

    You missed out TSE's outstanding knowledge of the Classics and RCS' impeccable taste in music.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    Is there nothing old people can’t do nowadays? President of America, porn-star shagger, political assassin. I used to dread old age but I’m off to fake a US birth certificate, buy some viagra and get down the pistol range to get in shape for my seventies.
    Big G and I are watching you!
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,946
    Afternoon all :)

    I thought instead of relying on a tweet I'd go and look at the data in the tables.

    The first point is the original 45-25 is turnout weighted and excludes DKs.

    The wording of the next quetion is as follows: "Suppose Rishi Sunak stays Conservative leader but that Nigel Farage returns to frontline politics as the leader of the Reform Party before the next election Amongst other things, he would likely make the argument the Government had failed on migration. With Don't knows removed

    That's where the initial shift is derived. The next question is: Which party would you vote for if there were a General Election tomorrow? Just asked to those who say they would vote

    That produces an 18-point Labour lead (41-23) with the LDs on 10%, Reform on 9% and DKs on 9%

    When the 9% DKs were asked to which party they were leaning, 36% remained DK, 19% Labour, 14% LD, 12% Conservative and 11% Reform.

    My first conclusion on the numbers is the Farage supporters are mostly among the DKs or the WVs and there's little evidence, unless Farage returns, they would be tempted to back any other party.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218

    From previous thread, retelling the cheese nicking from co-op.

    I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.

    You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.

    If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.

    And food is expensive, people are struggling, so there probably is a market for Eastern European Delboy to flog cheese at £1 a packet.

    At the start of this year I'd never seen anyone pushing their way through a London Underground barrier (ie. without paying). Obviously it must have happened a lot previously, but the fact I hadn't seen it before suggests it was only on a small scale. This year I've seen it happen 3 or 4 times. The last time was at the barriers to the Elizabeth Line at Paddington, the left-hand side with extra large barrier for people with suitcases, etc.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They conducted a standard VI poll at the same time. Then added the Farage leading Reform question as a supllementary.

    The changes are with that poll.
    Hard to know how you would prompt this without hitting the leading question problem. "What would your vote be if Farage became leader of Reform" is a very good way of a. putting Reform top of mind, b. implying that received wisdom is he'd do a better job for them.

    Many probably thought Farage was head of Reform anyway. It's like asking "would you prefer Rice Krispies or Cornflakes?" then "what about if the Cornflakes were fortified with vitamins and iron?" I bet you'd get a few people changing their choice simply because they were being prompted.
    I want to know the results in the hypothetical situation that Farage became leader of the Liberal Democrats.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,050
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    Why can't a 71 year old be a professional assassin?
    Bobby Baccalieri Sr. says hi.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They conducted a standard VI poll at the same time. Then added the Farage leading Reform question as a supllementary.

    The changes are with that poll.
    Hard to know how you would prompt this without hitting the leading question problem. "What would your vote be if Farage became leader of Reform" is a very good way of a. putting Reform top of mind, b. implying that received wisdom is he'd do a better job for them.

    Many probably thought Farage was head of Reform anyway. It's like asking "would you prefer Rice Krispies or Cornflakes?" then "what about if the Cornflakes were fortified with vitamins and iron?" I bet you'd get a few people changing their choice simply because they were being prompted.
    I want to know the results in the hypothetical situation that Farage became leader of the Liberal Democrats.
    The heat death of the universe would be one and render the rest moot.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    Andy_JS said:

    From previous thread, retelling the cheese nicking from co-op.

    I would imagine it is to order. There have always been people who willing to supply "fell off the back of a lorry" and people willing to buy.

    You might say, £60 of cheese, doesn't seem worth it. But for a few minutes, with very little chance of getting nicked, you probably earned £20 for walking in a shop. And probably off to the next shop for meat etc.

    If you were dodgy individual who runs a takeaway or a cafe etc, paying say half price on cash'n'carry price is still worth it, especially if not wanting to show the tax man how much you are taking i.e. no receipts for that produce, the taxman will never know if you sold all that food and didn't put it through the books.

    And food is expensive, people are struggling, so there probably is a market for Eastern European Delboy to flog cheese at £1 a packet.

    At the start of this year I'd never seen anyone pushing their way through a London Underground barrier (ie. without paying). Obviously it must have happened a lot previously, but the fact I hadn't seen it before suggests it was only on a small scale. This year I've seen it happen 3 or 4 times. The last time was at the barriers to the Elizabeth Line at Paddington, the left-hand side with extra large barrier for people with suitcases, etc.
    Or it has always happened (it has) and after noticing it for the first time you are now more likely to notice it again.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 15
    TimS said:

    Donkeys said:

    1. Fico steps up the fight against foreign-funded organisations and the media, and they do the opposite of lying down and taking it.
    2. Fico gets shot.
    3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.

    His what?

    I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.

    Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.

    So you're telling us Fico was done in by the CIA, right?
    And Georgian protests are no doubt a CIA-backed colour revolution.
    What an asinine comment.

    Start reading some simpler posts maybe. See @ydoethur's effort:

    "Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old. I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins."

    I realise it's a joke, but reflect awhile on the difference between "detained for shooting" and "who shot" before working your way up to thinking about more complex posts or ones that require a little more depth of understanding.

    Meanwhile, the Sun newspaper is really it giving it some:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/27935944/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/

    They are practically painting Fico as a walking lump of poop who had it coming to him.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1790781693135028686?s=19

    I would, but not if it looked like I was in a world that was constantly on fire and dripping in blood
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    edited May 15
    Donkeys said:

    TimS said:

    Donkeys said:

    1. Fico steps up the fight against foreign-funded organisations and the media, and they do the opposite of lying down and taking it.
    2. Fico gets shot.
    3. A statement on Fico's condition appears on his official social media account.

    His what?

    I don't know what company's site his account is at, but I'm guessing it's probably a foreign-owned one. It could even be Shitter. And social media is of course part of the media.

    Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own graves.

    So you're telling us Fico was done in by the CIA, right?
    And Georgian protests are no doubt a CIA-backed colour revolution.
    What an asinine comment.

    Start reading some simpler posts maybe. See @ydoethur's effort:

    "Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old. I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins."

    I realise it's a joke, but reflect awhile on the difference between "detained for shooting" and "who shot" before working your way up to thinking about more complex posts or ones that require a little more depth of understanding.
    I dunno. The Americans like older men and the CIA are a bunch of amateurs.

    The reason I would be inclined to say this isn't the CIA in fact is because the shooter did get near enough to hit Fico. The CIA would more likely have blown up the town, and then given the completely unhurt Fico a box of chocolates.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,088
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I just want to say that @TheScreamingEagles is enormously handsome, profoundly wise, and hung like an Arab stallion on Cialis. And @rcs1000 is like Einstein with the socio-sexual confidence of mid-season Genghis Khan

    *glances nervously, and upwards, to the left, speaks with a muffled voice, wincing as his blooded teeth fall out*

    "Did I get it right?"

    You missed out TSE's outstanding knowledge of the Classics and RCS' impeccable taste in music.
    Yes, rcs is a real radio-head.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I just want to say that @TheScreamingEagles is enormously handsome, profoundly wise, and hung like an Arab stallion on Cialis. And @rcs1000 is like Einstein with the socio-sexual confidence of mid-season Genghis Khan

    *glances nervously, and upwards, to the left, speaks with a muffled voice, wincing as his blooded teeth fall out*

    "Did I get it right?"

    You missed out TSE's outstanding knowledge of the Classics and RCS' impeccable taste in music.
    Yes, rcs is a real radio-head.
    Exactly. Well done on your sharp antennae.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Phil said:

    I can never quite square the circle that crime is supposed to be falling and falling, but prison have been so overflowing for donkeys years that need policies to handle it, that at first there was policies like 50% discounts for early guilty pleas, people out on tag a lot earlier etc, and now we are having to release seriously dangerous ones early....and at the same time businesses complain that low level crimes like shoplifting aren't even enforced, car thefts and burglaries are basically never solved, carrying / using a knife doesn't get your the prison sentences that are on available etc.

    The prison population today is twice what it was in 1970, despite the population only being 20% greater:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/283475/england-and-wales-prison-population-by-gender/
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

    Don’t ask me to explain this one, because I’m not sure what the explanation is: Were people being held elsewhere? Did we just accept a level of violence in public that would be unacceptable today? I’ve no idea!

    As to the current problems: the prison population hasn’t changed for roughly a decade, despite the population increase over that period, because we haven’t built any more prisons. This is at least partially due to the general planning deadlock that holds this country in its vice-like grip - IIRC the Home Office has tried to build them, but been stymied by local councils. But the current overcrowding is an inevitable consequence.

    (Is there something about these stats that I’ve missed? Does anyone with relevant knowledge want to chip in? The change in incarceration rate over time since the 1940s to today seems unexpected to me.)
    The answer is simple. There's more crime today.
    No.

    We are imprisoning more people for more things we have defined as crimes.

    As @DavidL can tell you, business in the historic sex offences realm is brisk, for example. And they are getting long sentences when convicted.

    Once again, good actions (convicting people of real, serious, past crimes) has negative consequences.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t stop the good actions, by the way. It means we need to deal with the results of our actions.
    Don't agree. I think there is more crime today. An inevitable side-effect of a less deferential society.
    The British Crime Survey is - I believe - the Gold Standard here. They ask people if they've been a victim of crime.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023#overall-estimates-of-crime

    And overall crimes against person have certainly fallen (and fallen a long way), with the exception of computer fraud.
    I don't know if we have more crimes or not, but I don't even understand the premise that a 'less deferential society' is behind the issue if it exists.
    Surveys that ask "do you think crime levels are rising or falling?" invariably show that people think crime is rising, irrespective of underlying trends.
    Turns out the public really do get some things very wrong. It's not patronising to say that when it is the case, though politicians would be advised not to put it that way.
    Well, there's no reason why most of us should know crime levels, or how much of the welfare budget goes to various groups of people... or all sorts of talking points.

    We rely on news media to keep us informed, and their commercial success is only loosely correlated with presenting a best-faith representation of the world as it is.

    Fox News is an extreme example of that, but a lot of UK news outlets are problematic enough.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @sturdyAlex
    Todays #PMQs shows why Sunak's latest Vote-for-Me-or-it's-World-War-Three "relaunch", just like the many resets before it, is doomed to fail. A short 🧵 1/

    Here is the basic issue: Tory MPs, at every level, look at the same polls we do and they are desperate. That panic is poor counsel. They will get more tribal, noisier, more aggressive, baser. They will reach for personal attacks, for culture wars, for stunts, for cheap digs. 2/

    In today's #PMQs, the biggest noise came when the PM made a cheap jibe about Sue Gray. "MORE MORE MORE" his MPs chanted, as he tried (and failed) to pivot to cosplaying a grown-up.

    For "trust us, we are serious people" to work, actually being serious people is a precondition. 3/

    The same thing happened later. Starmer stuttered. The whole of the Tory side went ballistic. "This proves he's not fit to lead this country", shot a delighted Sunak. Ten seconds later he was, again unsuccessfully, trying to pivot from fratboy bully to solemn statesman. 4/

    This is not confined to parliament, either. It runs through the current crop like a stick of rock. When Johnson "purged" the party of most serious, intelligent one-nation Tories, the true legacy is that he geared it for only ONE kind of politics. And it ain't the serious kind. 5/

    So, prepare for another reset in June - who knows to what? - because truth is that, however smart the "dangerous times" strategy looked in a Levido focus group, Sunak lacks the heft and the staff to make it credible. Banning lanyards is, tragically, about the right level. 6/6 END
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,367
    edited May 15
    Social Media is so last decade...

    I'm thrilled to announce that I've joined @AnthropicAI as their Chief Product Officer!
    https://x.com/mikeyk/status/1790744229616259547

    For those that don't know, he co-founded Instagram.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,181
    kle4 said:

    16.9% in perfect conditions in one seat, 5.9% capital wide on the list, almost no recognisable names, no local organisation, reliant on loans and donations from Tice.
    They'll do well to break 5% nationwide at a GE with or without the spiv

    Let's say for sake of argument most of that comes from the Tories but some amount are from others or non-voters, and that's what, 4% taken from the Tories nationally? Enough to turn a big defeat into an apocaplypse, potentially.
    Or an alpacalypse.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,181
    Graun feed: Ms McVey tells C4 she never proposed a ban on rainbow lanyards.

    'Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, has claimed that she never proposed a “ban'” on civil servants wearing rainbow lanyards, or other ones conveying a political message, in her speech on Monday.'

    Mind, it got PB excited ...
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    Premier League to vote on scrapping VAR

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4n1ndlknk1o
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,181
    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex
    Todays #PMQs shows why Sunak's latest Vote-for-Me-or-it's-World-War-Three "relaunch", just like the many resets before it, is doomed to fail. A short 🧵 1/

    Here is the basic issue: Tory MPs, at every level, look at the same polls we do and they are desperate. That panic is poor counsel. They will get more tribal, noisier, more aggressive, baser. They will reach for personal attacks, for culture wars, for stunts, for cheap digs. 2/

    In today's #PMQs, the biggest noise came when the PM made a cheap jibe about Sue Gray. "MORE MORE MORE" his MPs chanted, as he tried (and failed) to pivot to cosplaying a grown-up.

    For "trust us, we are serious people" to work, actually being serious people is a precondition. 3/

    The same thing happened later. Starmer stuttered. The whole of the Tory side went ballistic. "This proves he's not fit to lead this country", shot a delighted Sunak. Ten seconds later he was, again unsuccessfully, trying to pivot from fratboy bully to solemn statesman. 4/

    This is not confined to parliament, either. It runs through the current crop like a stick of rock. When Johnson "purged" the party of most serious, intelligent one-nation Tories, the true legacy is that he geared it for only ONE kind of politics. And it ain't the serious kind. 5/

    So, prepare for another reset in June - who knows to what? - because truth is that, however smart the "dangerous times" strategy looked in a Levido focus group, Sunak lacks the heft and the staff to make it credible. Banning lanyards is, tragically, about the right level. 6/6 END

    Attacking people for having a speech impediment. Well.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,325
    It seems that only pollsters are picking up such high Reform Ltd. numbers. Compared to Brexit/UKIP/Referendum Party I struggle to see why Reform is more than a Media paper tiger. On the ground, and, crucially, in the ballot box, they are not showing up too much.

    Not sure that this means that the Tories get that vote "back" though. Quite a bit of Reform is "none of the above" and that is as likely to go Green or even Lib Dem, as to the Tories.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,367
    edited May 15
    DougSeal said:

    Premier League to vote on scrapping VAR

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4n1ndlknk1o

    Never understood why they didn't follow the cricket / tennis approach of giving teams a limited number of challenges, and make VAR application for a limited set of things that are hard and fast e.g. VAR for offside (not did player x pull player y on the half way line 30s before the goal), but like cricket, too close to call, you stick with ref decision.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,335

    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    The alleged name and identity is being fairly widely shared on social media
    Apparently an anti-violence campaigner.

    https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1790790908381905294?s=46
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948

    DougSeal said:

    Premier League to vote on scrapping VAR

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4n1ndlknk1o

    Never understood why they didn't follow the cricket / tennis approach of giving teams a limited number of challenges, and make VAR application for a limited set of things that are hard and fast e.g. VAR for offside (not did player x pull player y on the half way line 30s before the goal), but like cricket, too close to call, you stick with ref decision.
    Deals with dissent too. Hard to have a go at the ref if you are not willing to use one of your referrals.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823
    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex
    Todays #PMQs shows why Sunak's latest Vote-for-Me-or-it's-World-War-Three "relaunch", just like the many resets before it, is doomed to fail. A short 🧵 1/

    Here is the basic issue: Tory MPs, at every level, look at the same polls we do and they are desperate. That panic is poor counsel. They will get more tribal, noisier, more aggressive, baser. They will reach for personal attacks, for culture wars, for stunts, for cheap digs. 2/

    In today's #PMQs, the biggest noise came when the PM made a cheap jibe about Sue Gray. "MORE MORE MORE" his MPs chanted, as he tried (and failed) to pivot to cosplaying a grown-up.

    For "trust us, we are serious people" to work, actually being serious people is a precondition. 3/

    The same thing happened later. Starmer stuttered. The whole of the Tory side went ballistic. "This proves he's not fit to lead this country", shot a delighted Sunak. Ten seconds later he was, again unsuccessfully, trying to pivot from fratboy bully to solemn statesman. 4/

    This is not confined to parliament, either. It runs through the current crop like a stick of rock. When Johnson "purged" the party of most serious, intelligent one-nation Tories, the true legacy is that he geared it for only ONE kind of politics. And it ain't the serious kind. 5/

    So, prepare for another reset in June - who knows to what? - because truth is that, however smart the "dangerous times" strategy looked in a Levido focus group, Sunak lacks the heft and the staff to make it credible. Banning lanyards is, tragically, about the right level. 6/6 END

    Yeah, Rishi's leaden-footed "steam bro" response to Starmer's "tech bruh... er... bro... brother" stutter was deeply cringey.

    I do have a horrible feeling, though, that the Tories might try to make age an issue in the campaign - so watch out for them taking Starmer's line out of context and turning it into a "how do you do, fellow kids?"-type meme.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex
    Todays #PMQs shows why Sunak's latest Vote-for-Me-or-it's-World-War-Three "relaunch", just like the many resets before it, is doomed to fail. A short 🧵 1/

    Here is the basic issue: Tory MPs, at every level, look at the same polls we do and they are desperate. That panic is poor counsel. They will get more tribal, noisier, more aggressive, baser. They will reach for personal attacks, for culture wars, for stunts, for cheap digs. 2/

    In today's #PMQs, the biggest noise came when the PM made a cheap jibe about Sue Gray. "MORE MORE MORE" his MPs chanted, as he tried (and failed) to pivot to cosplaying a grown-up.

    For "trust us, we are serious people" to work, actually being serious people is a precondition. 3/

    The same thing happened later. Starmer stuttered. The whole of the Tory side went ballistic. "This proves he's not fit to lead this country", shot a delighted Sunak. Ten seconds later he was, again unsuccessfully, trying to pivot from fratboy bully to solemn statesman. 4/

    This is not confined to parliament, either. It runs through the current crop like a stick of rock. When Johnson "purged" the party of most serious, intelligent one-nation Tories, the true legacy is that he geared it for only ONE kind of politics. And it ain't the serious kind. 5/

    So, prepare for another reset in June - who knows to what? - because truth is that, however smart the "dangerous times" strategy looked in a Levido focus group, Sunak lacks the heft and the staff to make it credible. Banning lanyards is, tragically, about the right level. 6/6 END

    Attacking people for having a speech impediment. Well.
    Remember who else has form on that front.

    https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/adding-ugly-record-trump-mocks-bidens-stutter-rcna142802
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,897
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    16.9% in perfect conditions in one seat, 5.9% capital wide on the list, almost no recognisable names, no local organisation, reliant on loans and donations from Tice.
    They'll do well to break 5% nationwide at a GE with or without the spiv

    Let's say for sake of argument most of that comes from the Tories but some amount are from others or non-voters, and that's what, 4% taken from the Tories nationally? Enough to turn a big defeat into an apocaplypse, potentially.
    Or an alpacalypse.
    Is that like a llama drama?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    The last 2 polls by JLPartners on Wikepedia had Lab on 41 and 42, and Reform on 13% in both, so not sure where the shift figures in the header come from.

    There would seem to be a few percent Con to Reform shift, but possibly just MOE.

    They conducted a standard VI poll at the same time. Then added the Farage leading Reform question as a supllementary.

    The changes are with that poll.
    Hard to know how you would prompt this without hitting the leading question problem. "What would your vote be if Farage became leader of Reform" is a very good way of a. putting Reform top of mind, b. implying that received wisdom is he'd do a better job for them.

    Many probably thought Farage was head of Reform anyway. It's like asking "would you prefer Rice Krispies or Cornflakes?" then "what about if the Cornflakes were fortified with vitamins and iron?" I bet you'd get a few people changing their choice simply because they were being prompted.
    No one in their right mind would prefer Rice Krispies to Corn Flakes.
    Just unnatural.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280
    @FrancisUrquhart @noneoftheabove

    100% agree. And would be an interesting addition to the game, with a new premium on clever captains. But, the way it has actually been implemented has been unimaginably awful.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823
    Carnyx said:

    Graun feed: Ms McVey tells C4 she never proposed a ban on rainbow lanyards.

    'Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, has claimed that she never proposed a “ban'” on civil servants wearing rainbow lanyards, or other ones conveying a political message, in her speech on Monday.'

    Mind, it got PB excited ...

    Her exact words were:

    "I want a very simple but visible change to occur too – the lanyards worn to carry security passes shouldn’t be a random pick and mix, they should be a standard design reflecting that we are all members of the government delivering for the citizens of the UK.
    Working in the Civil Service is all about leaving your political views at the building entrance.
    Trying to introduce them by the back door via lanyards should not happen."

    (https://cps.org.uk/events/post/2024/speech-by-the-rt-hon-esther-mcvey-mp/)

    So whilst she didn't specifically mention rainbow lanyards, it's a bit disingenuous of her to claim she wasn't talking about a ban on "ones conveying a political message".

    (I think the first specific mention of rainbow lanyards came from the Telegraph's write-up, who presumably will have been briefed about it)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Like Sir Keir on accepting the referendum result, and the use of the private sector in the NHS, Lammy’s rejection of Nuclear weapons was a matter of principle and conscience

    David Lammy voted against Trident in 2016, and now wants to be a pro-nuclear, pro-Nato foreign sec independent.co.uk/voices/labour-…


    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1790648817655689626?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Tories famously always sticking to their guns on great matters of principle like, say, Brexit.
    Defence reversals are an easy one. The world has changed unbelievably since that 2016 vote.

    We have no more doubts that effectively we are already at war with Russia. Might be a cold war technically but it is warming quickly.
    It wasn’t a matter of conscience and principle then. Or he doesn’t have them anymore
    Conscience and principles can change in the face of facts.

    Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament is immoral, anyway.
    I thought the point of principles was that they don’t change in the face of facts
    People with principles that are immune to facts are bad news.
    And the rest don’t have principles
    Possibly we're at cross purposes on what 'having principles' means. Maybe you could give an example of one?
    After the way you acted on our bet I am quite sure you don’t know what ‘having principles’ means
    I acted a damn sight better than you.
    I don't think so

    You slagged me off on here, saying I owed you money, when I owed you nothing, and had no right of reply as I was banned from the site

    As soon as I was unbanned I messaged you to say I wanted to void the bet and you said you were fine with that

    I didn't reply because I thought/think you were/are/had been a twat about it all, and would rather not engage, then a year or so later you start talking about the bet as if it is still on!

    It sums up the slimy toad that you are, and you still have the nerve to say I acted badly when I have agreed to wear it rather than settle halfway! Incredible

    It's worth the £300 just to have the moral high ground and know what a sly rat you are
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    DougSeal said:

    Premier League to vote on scrapping VAR

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4n1ndlknk1o

    It should have been available for the really bad decisions.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Paul Mason going for the Islington North nomination
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,181
    AlsoLei said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun feed: Ms McVey tells C4 she never proposed a ban on rainbow lanyards.

    'Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, has claimed that she never proposed a “ban'” on civil servants wearing rainbow lanyards, or other ones conveying a political message, in her speech on Monday.'

    Mind, it got PB excited ...

    Her exact words were:

    "I want a very simple but visible change to occur too – the lanyards worn to carry security passes shouldn’t be a random pick and mix, they should be a standard design reflecting that we are all members of the government delivering for the citizens of the UK.
    Working in the Civil Service is all about leaving your political views at the building entrance.
    Trying to introduce them by the back door via lanyards should not happen."

    (https://cps.org.uk/events/post/2024/speech-by-the-rt-hon-esther-mcvey-mp/)

    So whilst she didn't specifically mention rainbow lanyards, it's a bit disingenuous of her to claim she wasn't talking about a ban on "ones conveying a political message".

    (I think the first specific mention of rainbow lanyards came from the Telegraph's write-up, who presumably will have been briefed about it)
    Quite. The rainbow lanyards IIRC came from ythe press Q&A after the speech - so predating the Tel writeup. Graun supplementary report goes

    'As the Times reports, asked what was wrong with civil servants wearing a rainbow lanyard to express solidarity with LGBT people, McVey replied:

    You don’t need political activism in a visible way … you’re putting it on to make a statement, and what we’re saying is actually, your political beliefs remain at the front door and when you come in, you’re part of a happy team'
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,253
    Let's get rid of VAR good news! 👍
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    The alleged name and identity is being fairly widely shared on social media
    Apparently an anti-violence campaigner.

    https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1790790908381905294?s=46
    And a reply to the tweet:

    "Wow. Looks like Slovak PM Robert Fico's reported assailant, writer Juraj Cintula, was associated with pro-Russian paramilitary group Slovenskí Branci (SB). Their leader was even trained by Russian ex-Spetsnaz soldiers."

    https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1790789652078526939
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    16.9% in perfect conditions in one seat, 5.9% capital wide on the list, almost no recognisable names, no local organisation, reliant on loans and donations from Tice.
    They'll do well to break 5% nationwide at a GE with or without the spiv

    Let's say for sake of argument most of that comes from the Tories but some amount are from others or non-voters, and that's what, 4% taken from the Tories nationally? Enough to turn a big defeat into an apocaplypse, potentially.
    Or an alpacalypse.
    Is that like a llama drama?
    A camalid of errors!
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,253

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1790781693135028686?s=19

    I would, but not if it looked like I was in a world that was constantly on fire and dripping in blood

    Talking of King Charles the 'postie' rang our door bell today and said she had a special delivery from Buckingham Palace and that we needed to sign for it

    It contained a personal message from Charles and Camilla, duly signed in black ink, congratulating us on our diamond wedding anniversary (60 years) for tomorrow

    The family are delighted that we received this recognition and our 12 year old granddaughter was so non plussed she just said 'no way' then promptly told everyone in her class

    We are having a family weekend here at home and lunch at a leading Llandudno Hotel on Sunday but we are so amazed how 'tempus fugit' and that we arrived at this milestone with lots of caring, humour and the love of our family of 3 children and 5 grandchildren. Additionally we reflect on the last six months of serious health problems I have had, and thank medical science and the consultants, doctors and nurses for my pacemaker to help us achieve our diamond anniversary

    I would just say that on politics I just want Sunak to call an election and let the voters decide on our next government, but personally my wife and I are grateful for so many blessings and at our age it really isn't a big deal who arrives in No 10 later this year

    I would end by saying that we have always travelled extensively, initially with the children but since 2005 worldwide from the Artic to the Antarctic and all places in between but know with our health and age issues we will not travel beyond our shores again, but we have so many memories, and my advice is always try to do your 'bucket list' as early as you can as you never know what is round the corner

    Well done to you and your wife Big G. Enjoy the anniversary 👍
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,740

    DougSeal said:

    Premier League to vote on scrapping VAR

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4n1ndlknk1o

    Never understood why they didn't follow the cricket / tennis approach of giving teams a limited number of challenges, and make VAR application for a limited set of things that are hard and fast e.g. VAR for offside (not did player x pull player y on the half way line 30s before the goal), but like cricket, too close to call, you stick with ref decision.
    Deals with dissent too. Hard to have a go at the ref if you are not willing to use one of your referrals.
    Dissent would be easily dealt with by simply applying Rugby Union standards. It is obvious that those who run football have decided that dissent, like regular cheating, is too important a part of the game to get rid of.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently the man detained for shooting Fico is 71 years old.

    I think we can start to rule out the possibility of professional assassins.

    Yeah, they all have professional final salary pensions etc that will have clocked in before that.
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