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Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2024
    Leon said:

    Are you denying Gaza is a “theo-fascist statelet”? Because it really is. They throw gays off buildings dontchaknow

    I’ve not said a word about Israel. But here’s a few words: Israel’s behaviour is barbaric, demonic even. I’ve discussed before that they seem so traumatised by the Holocaust they are intent on re-enacting one; like abused children who reiterate that abuse in later life

    But radical Islam has not done a lot to win friends in the last 40 years so I have almost zero sympathy for anyone associated with it

    Quite frankly I’m bored and sickened by the whole thing and I’m tired of it hijacking global politics taking attention away from more deserving communities and problems

    Let them fight to the death and be done with it
    You're conflating the IRM in Gaza with Daesh which really is a death cult and has never allowed churches to operate in areas it has controlled. "Martyr" in the region means anyone who dies in a just cause or who gets killed by the occupiers. It covers those who were killed in the flotilla massacre and also every single one of the ~35000 killed in Gaza since October, young lads picked off by snipers in the West Bank, etc. You don't have to be a Muslim to be a martyr.

    Suicide attacks haven't been much of a thing recently. Where they have happened, they have tended to be by young people who've had about 27 members of their family murdered and who simply want to take some of the murdering bastards down with them - a very human feeling. The idea that many mums and dads would willing sacrifice their sons for social advancement is similar to the traditional Tory idea that the only reason that unmarried working class women have babies is so they can get council flats.

    I am not waving a flag for the IRM or justifying things like murdering gays, but providing for the families of those who have fallen in the conflict is probably the main positive reason for the support they have. (The main negative reason is they aren't a bunch of collaborationist arseholes like most of the Fatah leadership.) Such provision of welfare is one of the good things they do. Doubtless it is also double-edged and comes with making sure that widows or the wives of prisoners don't sleep with men they're not supposed to. Cf. the IRA back in the day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Cyclefree said:

    What is not - or should not be - immensely boring is the level of abuse and hatred levelled at Jews in this country by fellow citizens in recent months. It should shame us.

    We can do little or nothing about what happens in the Middle East. We can and should do something about how people are treated here. Instead we barely notice, for instance, that the Green Councillor elected in Oldham is one of those whose threats against the Jewish chaplain at Leeds University led to him and his family having to go into hiding.
    It’s quite something - how the Greens have evolved into this hideous new creature: obsessed with trans rights and Palestinian activism. It’s like worrying about rivers and badgers is a gateway drug into every kooky nonsensical radicalism they can find
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359
    Cyclefree said:

    The more important story this morning is this one - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/birth-trauma-report-calls-for-tsar-to-end-postcode-maternity-lottery-00h8fkdn6.

    The headline underplays the gravity of the findings.

    "New mothers risk suffering lifelong injuries as hospitals cover up endemic failures in Britain’s maternity system, according to a landmark inquiry which found good care for pregnant women “is the exception rather than the rule”.

    The country’s first parliamentary inquiry into birth trauma has found there was “shockingly poor quality” in maternity services, resulting in care lacking compassion and a system where “poor care is all too frequently tolerated as normal”."

    This is very important.

    Incidentally, we know a couple who work at a certain large hospital. Despite that, they chose to have their children at another, smaller hospital about the same distance away. The reason: being smaller, you got far better care and were not chucked out ASAP. Although they freely admitted that if they expected complications, they would have gone to the larger unit.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    Dura_Ace said:

    They are in Ukraine although I am sure an Ultra will be along shortly to provide context and contrast.
    I suppose as you drift inexorably towards open unashamed support for Russia more and more fellow posters must seem like ultras.

    Nice use of the Scotch expert gambit there too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    On a sleek intercity train from Foggia to Bari. Fast clean efficient as we speed through notably ugly and boring “countryside” (actually quite industrial)

    Also: insanely cheap. €11 for a 90 minute journey
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    edited May 2024
    Donkeys said:

    You're conflating the IRM in Gaza with Daesh which really is a death cult and has never allowed churches to operate in areas it has controlled. "Martyr" in the region means anyone who dies in a just cause or who gets killed by the occupiers. It covers those who were killed in the flotilla massacre and also every single one of the ~35000 killed in Gaza since October, young lads picked off by snipers in the West Bank, etc. You don't have to be a Muslim to be a martyr.

    Suicide attacks haven't been much of a thing recently. Where they have happened, they have tended to be by young people who've had about 27 members of their family murdered and who simply want to take some of the murdering bastards down with them - a very human feeling. The idea that many mums and dads would willing sacrifice their sons for social advancement is similar to the traditional Tory idea that the only reason that unmarried working class women have babies is so they can get council flats.

    I am not waving a flag for the IRM or justifying things like murdering gays, but providing for the families of those who have fallen in the conflict is probably the main positive reason for the support they have. (The main negative reason is they aren't a bunch of collaborationist arseholes like most of the Fatah leadership.) Such provision of welfare is one of the good things they do. Doubtless it is also double-edged and comes with making sure that widows or the wives of prisoners don't sleep with men they're not supposed to. Cf. the IRA back in the day.
    Great line: "I am not waving a flag for the IRM or justifying things like murdering gays, but..."
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330

    With clubs.
    And voting where the football team supporters get to vote 20 times.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,478
    Mr. Topping, it's worth remembering the titans lost the war.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    It could work the other way of course, reducing complacency amongst the anti-Tory vote.
    Agreed.

    Passive support for Labour has been hit hard amongst the young urban left. They may not have been particularly likely to vote anyway, but are now even less likely.

    This sort of campaign from the Tories - along with the ramping over the London Mayoral vote - might well shuffle some of those potential abstainers back into the Labour column.

    The likelihood of differential turnout is always a key factor, but I'd have thought that the best hope for the Tories is to making this election seem as "boring" as possible in order to suppress the Labour vote.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Donkeys said:

    You're conflating the IRM in Gaza with Daesh which really is a death cult and has never allowed churches to operate in areas it has controlled. "Martyr" in the region means anyone who dies in a just cause or who gets killed by the occupiers. It covers those who were killed in the flotilla massacre and also every single one of the ~35000 killed in Gaza since October, young lads picked off by snipers in the West Bank, etc. You don't have to be a Muslim to be a martyr.

    Suicide attacks haven't been much of a thing recently. Where they have happened, they have tended to be by young people who've had about 27 members of their family murdered and who simply want to take some of the murdering bastards down with them - a very human feeling. The idea that many mums and dads would willing sacrifice their sons for social advancement is similar to the traditional Tory idea that the only reason that unmarried working class women have babies is so they can get council flats.

    I am not waving a flag for the IRM or justifying things like murdering gays, but providing for the families of those who have fallen in the conflict is probably the main positive reason for the support they have. (The main negative reason is they aren't a bunch of collaborationist arseholes like most of the Fatah leadership.) Such provision of welfare is one of the good things they do. Doubtless it is also double-edged and comes with making sure that widows or the wives of prisoners don't sleep with men they're not supposed to. Cf. the IRA back in the day.
    Forgive my ignorance, but who or what is the IRM?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    TOPPING said:

    Great line: "I am not waving a flag for the IRM or justifying things like murdering gays, but..."
    I think all of us reasonable folk would favour this not murdering the gays modernity
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    I stopped listening to Sunak's speech when he said war rages in the Middle East as "Israel defends itself".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    TOPPING said:

    I have no doubt. Plus is British aid to, say, Saudi, which ends up distributed around the region or the world by Saudi counted as British aid. No idea.
    At least some of the British 'aid' is distributed liberally on Yemen. Not sure they're terribly grateful for it mind.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    I think all of us reasonable folk would favour this not murdering the gays modernity
    I think this is the flag that @Donkeys isn't waving.




  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    At least some of the British 'aid' is distributed liberally on Yemen. Not sure they're terribly grateful for it mind.
    Ah yes there is that kind of aid also. I assume it doesn't result in improved morale.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited May 2024
    algarkirk said:



    And, take Sudan for example, when it gets coverage it more or less misses out entirely reports on what military action is taking place, where, who is winning and losing, who is allied with which countries, who is arming them and with what, and what are the future intentions of the parties.

    Yep, even with the Israel-Gaza conflict nowhere on the BBC website are there ever any maps showing territory taken by the IDF, Hamas strikes etc. The coverage is even worse for various ('twas ever thus) African conflicts I get the main "news" of these conflicts nearly always relates to the humanitarian suffering but map territory, strikes and so forth - detail about the actual conflicts would be handy - it only seems to have happened 'properly' during the Ukranian counterattack, otherwise it's just not reported on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    I wonder how many people realise how easy travel is now? Thanks to smartphones and e-translate etc

    Example. I was stuck in Mattinata (a pretty little town on the south gargano coast). My transfer to foggia station and thence to Bari and then Bari airport was meant to be this afternoon with a driver who only speaks Italian

    However via the miraculous use of Google translate I was able to talk to him on WhatsApp in fluent Italian

    Here’s the chat. Remember I don’t speak Italian



    He turned up at the new time of 11 (not 4). During the 45 minute transfer to foggia station I bought a train ticket in English on the Trenitalia app, that took about 40 seconds. I had a four minute wait at the station and now I’m on the train using my app’s e-ticket

    When I get to Bari I will summon a car with a ride hailing app and it will take 2 more minutes and I will get to Bari (ins’allah) in 15 minutes and pick up the hire car I rented online in a few minutes yesterday

    Just phenomenal. Now imagine doing all that 20-30 years ago - and with no Italian. A massive daunting task and one that could so easily go wrong. Now it is a doddle. Doddlissimo


    And you can do this all over the world. I did it in Colombia a few weeks back. Apps for buses. Sorted
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited May 2024
    More desperate attempts to appease the ERG nutjobs from Sunak .

    Hasn’t he got better things to do like polish his helicopter than deliver more vacuous nonsense . Country at a crossroads blah blah blah ....

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    nico679 said:

    More desperate attempts to appease the ERG nutjobs from Sunak .

    Hasn’t he got better things to do like polish his helicopter than deliver more vacuous nonsense . Country at a crossroads blah blah blah ....

    This time will shift the dial, definitely. Right?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    I’m kinda surprised WhatsApp (and signal and telegram and iMessage) haven’t yet introduced the functionality of instant translate. So, say you are in Italy, you could toggle a switch which says “translate anything I say in English into Italian and anything Italian into English”. Surely not that hard

    I had to cut and paste with google translate which took 20 seconds per message but still slowed it down A BIT

    Maybe WhatsApp does have this and I don’t know? If not, it is surely coming very soon

    Learning languages - as I have said on here many times - is about to become utterly pointless. Something for rich kids to do like learning the cello or taking up dressage
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Until fairly recently forecasting that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's was as good as or better than actual forecasts. One of the bigger issues we have now is that apps appear to be giving really precise forecasts for locations and times, when in reality they are simply outputting unmodified weather model data. The last public puts far too much credence on them, particularly beyond saying 48-72 hours.
    Yes. The presentation of weather forecasts on apps is dire.

    There is normally fairly impressive skill a week or more ahead in terms of the general weather type. On its 10-day weather forecasts on youtube the Met Office uses a statistical weather regime analysis that is very useful.

    Reducing this to hourly forecasts of precipitation and temperature for point locations is moronic.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    edited May 2024
    This is real weak sauce from Sunak. Vote for me because I can be trusted more with change? It’s just such a weird message for a party in power for 14 years. Casting around for gimmicks like this isn’t going to save him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Cyclefree said:

    The more important story this morning is this one - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/birth-trauma-report-calls-for-tsar-to-end-postcode-maternity-lottery-00h8fkdn6.

    The headline underplays the gravity of the findings.

    "New mothers risk suffering lifelong injuries as hospitals cover up endemic failures in Britain’s maternity system, according to a landmark inquiry which found good care for pregnant women “is the exception rather than the rule”.

    The country’s first parliamentary inquiry into birth trauma has found there was “shockingly poor quality” in maternity services, resulting in care lacking compassion and a system where “poor care is all too frequently tolerated as normal”."

    "The exception rather than the rule" seems something worth highlighting in the heading to me. It destroys the "odd bad apple" argument that the NHS is so fond of. I can't read the piece as I don't subscribe but it is an eye-catching headline.

    Envy of the world, of course. 1.6m heroes. A bargain at near £200bn a year. etc.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    I’m kinda surprised WhatsApp (and signal and telegram and iMessage) haven’t yet introduced the functionality of instant translate. So, say you are in Italy, you could toggle a switch which says “translate anything I say in English into Italian and anything Italian into English”. Surely not that hard

    I had to cut and paste with google translate which took 20 seconds per message but still slowed it down A BIT

    Maybe WhatsApp does have this and I don’t know? If not, it is surely coming very soon

    Learning languages - as I have said on here many times - is about to become utterly pointless. Something for rich kids to do like learning the cello or taking up dressage

    Star Trek Universal Translator incoming
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    Leon said:

    I wonder how many people realise how easy travel is now? Thanks to smartphones and e-translate etc

    Example. I was stuck in Mattinata (a pretty little town on the south gargano coast). My transfer to foggia station and thence to Bari and then Bari airport was meant to be this afternoon with a driver who only speaks Italian

    However via the miraculous use of Google translate I was able to talk to him on WhatsApp in fluent Italian

    Here’s the chat. Remember I don’t speak Italian



    He turned up at the new time of 11 (not 4). During the 45 minute transfer to foggia station I bought a train ticket in English on the Trenitalia app, that took about 40 seconds. I had a four minute wait at the station and now I’m on the train using my app’s e-ticket

    When I get to Bari I will summon a car with a ride hailing app and it will take 2 more minutes and I will get to Bari (ins’allah) in 15 minutes and pick up the hire car I rented online in a few minutes yesterday

    Just phenomenal. Now imagine doing all that 20-30 years ago - and with no Italian. A massive daunting task and one that could so easily go wrong. Now it is a doddle. Doddlissimo


    And you can do this all over the world. I did it in Colombia a few weeks back. Apps for buses. Sorted

    It is amazing. We are fortunate to be living in amazing times, tech wise. Where will we be in 20 years time? I was speaking to my 12 year old niece the other day, when I told her the first time I went online I was 19 and it took five minutes for a page to load and I didn’t have a mobile til I was 20 she looked at me like I had three heads.

    You’ve mentioned before how AI will affect music. The other day I was watching a video from a guitar YouTuber, he compared a song he generated with AI five years ago to one he’s done now. The difference is colossal.

    I find it tremendously exciting.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    Wouldn't it be nice.
    Here Today, Gone Tomorrow (I wish).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    This is real weak sauce from Sunak. Vote for me because I can be trusted more with change? It’s just such a weird message for a party in power for 14 years. Casting around for gimmicks like this isn’t going to save him.

    All that is left for him is fear of Labour votes, so everything will be framed around that. Don't risk it for a biscuit campaign, and even that is about trying to restrict them and have a chance at coming back in 5 years/one heave
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Jeez this is delusional stuff from Sunak . Someone needs to stage an intervention and get help for the poor thing .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    I wonder how many people realise how easy travel is now? Thanks to smartphones and e-translate etc

    Example. I was stuck in Mattinata (a pretty little town on the south gargano coast). My transfer to foggia station and thence to Bari and then Bari airport was meant to be this afternoon with a driver who only speaks Italian

    However via the miraculous use of Google translate I was able to talk to him on WhatsApp in fluent Italian

    Here’s the chat. Remember I don’t speak Italian



    He turned up at the new time of 11 (not 4). During the 45 minute transfer to foggia station I bought a train ticket in English on the Trenitalia app, that took about 40 seconds. I had a four minute wait at the station and now I’m on the train using my app’s e-ticket

    When I get to Bari I will summon a car with a ride hailing app and it will take 2 more minutes and I will get to Bari (ins’allah) in 15 minutes and pick up the hire car I rented online in a few minutes yesterday

    Just phenomenal. Now imagine doing all that 20-30 years ago - and with no Italian. A massive daunting task and one that could so easily go wrong. Now it is a doddle. Doddlissimo


    And you can do this all over the world. I did it in Colombia a few weeks back. Apps for buses. Sorted

    Don't you think it would be more interesting to travel without modern technology?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    nico679 said:

    More desperate attempts to appease the ERG nutjobs from Sunak .

    Hasn’t he got better things to do like polish his helicopter than deliver more vacuous nonsense . Country at a crossroads blah blah blah ....

    To paraphrase: "Why are our opponents talking about all the stupid unforced errors we've made in the recent past when actually they should be talking about the future?"

    Sure, yes, it'd be great if Starmer could do a bit more of the vision thing. But Sunak's not a neutral observer here, he's the Prime Minister - and this speech so far sounds so very, very whingey.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,350

    This is real weak sauce from Sunak. Vote for me because I can be trusted more with change? It’s just such a weird message for a party in power for 14 years. Casting around for gimmicks like this isn’t going to save him.

    It's the only message they can run with after 14 years. The alternative- fresh start, that bad stuff was nothing to do with us- is a card a new PM can play exactly once. Major got away with it in 1992 and Johnson in 2019, but to try it now would just elicit a hollow laugh.

    You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives was the title of their 1997 manifesto.

    I think we're all pretty sure how well that went.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Leon said:

    I wonder how many people realise how easy travel is now? Thanks to smartphones and e-translate etc

    Example. I was stuck in Mattinata (a pretty little town on the south gargano coast). My transfer to foggia station and thence to Bari and then Bari airport was meant to be this afternoon with a driver who only speaks Italian

    However via the miraculous use of Google translate I was able to talk to him on WhatsApp in fluent Italian

    Here’s the chat. Remember I don’t speak Italian



    He turned up at the new time of 11 (not 4). During the 45 minute transfer to foggia station I bought a train ticket in English on the Trenitalia app, that took about 40 seconds. I had a four minute wait at the station and now I’m on the train using my app’s e-ticket

    When I get to Bari I will summon a car with a ride hailing app and it will take 2 more minutes and I will get to Bari (ins’allah) in 15 minutes and pick up the hire car I rented online in a few minutes yesterday

    Just phenomenal. Now imagine doing all that 20-30 years ago - and with no Italian. A massive daunting task and one that could so easily go wrong. Now it is a doddle. Doddlissimo


    And you can do this all over the world. I did it in Colombia a few weeks back. Apps for buses. Sorted

    There's apps that do the same thing with the spoken word.

    I asked someone to call me a cab in Tallahassee the other day and got laughed at and told to get an Uber. Nobody uses trad cabs any more except criminals who want to avoid creating a record of their movements.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    One betting thought, he did appear to completely rule out January 'it will be at a date in the second half of this year'
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,761
    Cyclefree said:

    What is not - or should not be - immensely boring is the level of abuse and hatred levelled at Jews in this country by fellow citizens in recent months. It should shame us.

    We can do little or nothing about what happens in the Middle East. We can and should do something about how people are treated here. Instead we barely notice, for instance, that the Green Councillor elected in Oldham is one of those whose threats against the Jewish chaplain at Leeds University led to him and his family having to go into hiding.
    We could stop going along with the pretence that Israel's annihilation of Gaza can be described as self-defence. Antisemitism, like all forms of racism, is shameful, but so is the apparent condonement of genocide.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Can anyone else tell me what @donkeys is referring to with IRM in the context of Gaza?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    TOPPING said:

    I think this is the flag that @Donkeys isn't waving.




    It’s a Russian troll attempting to create and exacerbate divides on the Israel Gaza issue. Just ignore.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    One betting thought, he did appear to completely rule out January 'it will be at a date in the second half of this year'

    My Betfair Dec bet is now in the money, my larger Jan one not so much
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    Can anyone else tell me what @donkeys is referring to with IRM in the context of Gaza?

    Islamic Resistance Movement, the English translation of 'Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah' - ie. Hamas.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't you think it would be more interesting to travel without modern technology?
    No not really. I mean it would be quaint and fun in a steampunk way for about 17 minutes and then you’d get frustrated. I love the fact you can now access incredible parts of the world - and move on to other exotic locales - with seamless ease. It’s also gratifying (I admit) that most people don’t realise this or they are too timid or whatever

    The fact I could hire a car online at Santa Marta in Colombia and DRIVE into the jungle and meet Stone Age people was just brilliant. Also if you want adventure and hassle you can absolutely find it. Ukraine for instance. No visas needed. Give it a whirl
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    edited May 2024
    AlsoLei said:

    Islamic Resistance Movement, the English translation of 'Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah' - ie. Hamas.
    Thanks - couldn't find it on the interweb, seems a bit niche. Is this a poster just being a bit of a dick, look how much more I know than you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    All that is left for him is fear of Labour votes, so everything will be framed around that. Don't risk it for a biscuit campaign, and even that is about trying to restrict them and have a chance at coming back in 5 years/one heave
    And it won't work. Starmer has closed that off along with every other tory attack line. It's been a masterclass really.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    "He starts by saying the next election will be a choice “between the future and the past”."

    Yep. And he is the past. 14 years of this crap.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    edited May 2024

    It’s a Russian troll attempting to create and exacerbate divides on the Israel Gaza issue. Just ignore.
    Always interesting to engage with PB posters. We have all kinds of views here. I'm not sure if The Donkmeister is actually saying anything (actually this last post of his was more telling than others) but it's an opinion - Hamas might be murdering thugs who deny Israel's right to exist and throw gays and their political opponents off buildings, but they do a lot of good work compensating families of martyrs, resisting the Zionist entity, etc - which many on PB share.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    Thankyou Gary Gibbon.

    Which is it Sunak? Complete change on 30 year consensus or building on a solid foundation of 14 years?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    BBC reportage at its finest this morning:

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2j0vl2n8zo

    I'm sad he's dead, but is it really front page news to tell us that his widow misses him? Really?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    148grss said:

    The thing about this speech from Sunak is, if he believed it, he would have ended the speech by saying "and this is why I am calling a general election now". The fact that he doesn't do that just shows everyone that he is just hot air. The average voter reading headlines about this is just going to go "Sunak's spouting nonsense again, still chicken to call an election". If he wants to make election speeches and have them taken seriously - call an election!

    The tone of the speech is what I would expect from a leader of the opposition.

    I do think that some people will vote Tory because they think Starmer and Labour have failed in government. Starmer has been leader of the opposition for a lot longer than Sunak has been PM.

    Time for a change. Vote Starmer out!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    Someone needs to legislate for the fixed lectern parliament act, limiting lectern appearances to no more than 3 per parliament.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    The more Sunak makes speeches the more it becomes clear Starmer is the one and we should just get on with it. It's a choice between the two and Sunak isn't the choice.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814
    ...

    It's the only message they can run with after 14 years. The alternative- fresh start, that bad stuff was nothing to do with us- is a card a new PM can play exactly once. Major got away with it in 1992 and Johnson in 2019, but to try it now would just elicit a hollow laugh.

    You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives was the title of their 1997 manifesto.

    I think we're all pretty sure how well that went.
    We've had a year (feels like several) of Sunak failing to address the issues and doing his dismal decline management with a sprinkling of enough performative right-wingery to put peoples' backs up without actually getting anything right wing done. Trying to market himself as the change candidate isn't going to work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    Yep.


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    21m
    This section perfectly encapsulates Sunak's problem. He is incapable of crafting a clear message. It's a mishmash of security, and change, and embracing the future, and not taking a leap into the unknown. Politically and narratively incoherent.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1789966949817950611
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Jeez the embedded images are BIG.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933

    The tone of the speech is what I would expect from a leader of the opposition.

    I do think that some people will vote Tory because they think Starmer and Labour have failed in government. Starmer has been leader of the opposition for a lot longer than Sunak has been PM.

    Time for a change. Vote Starmer out!
    Remember those voters at the Hartlepool byelection in 2021.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited May 2024
    Good morning everyone.

    Thank-you for the header, @TSE .

    I quite enjoy the history of Warwickshire County Council, who came onto my radar this weekend because they have declared free-for-all on Pavement Charging Cable Protectors the size of small traffic calming ramps to be run across footways. They also claim by implication that their legal responsibilities to provide an unobstructed public highway and equal service to groups protected under Equality Act 2010 do not exist.

    I ran into one on a shared pavement in my own town, and it was as high as a scaffold plank.

    Looking at the history since 1974, it's as if they say "let's try the Conservatives" and get scared off by the experience, and go NOC, then forget and try again. Or vice-versa.


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    The tone of the speech is what I would expect from a leader of the opposition.

    I do think that some people will vote Tory because they think Starmer and Labour have failed in government. Starmer has been leader of the opposition for a lot longer than Sunak has been PM.

    Time for a change. Vote Starmer out!
    TBH if someone votes Tory because they think Starmer and Labour have failed in government then their vote should be voided. Surely no-one is that thick?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Very interesting:

    Is interest rates an area where the media has badly misjudged the public mood? You'd think from most news programmes that the public is dying for a rate cut. Perhaps there will be quite a few people who'll be annoyed at having agreed a fixed deal at a higher rate.

    Geography? A regional breakdown would be good.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    BBC reportage at its finest this morning:

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2j0vl2n8zo

    I'm sad he's dead, but is it really front page news to tell us that his widow misses him? Really?

    The tabloid-is-ation of the BBC News output in recent times (particularly online) is very depressing.

    On that point, does anyone have a better go-to online default news source? I have tried Reuters but it is too hit-and-miss with what it covers, particularly on UK topics.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    edited May 2024

    It's the no election lectern. Booooooo

    Weirdly, the whole speech was nakedly party political. Every sentence ended with "and that's why you'll be less safe with Keir Starmer", "unlike Labour in Wales", or "and actually it's only the Conservatives who have a plan for the future".

    Why's he using the government lectern when this so clearly wasn't a government speech?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    The tabloid-is-ation of the BBC News output in recent times (particularly online) is very depressing.

    On that point, does anyone have a better go-to online default news source? I have tried Reuters but it is too hit-and-miss with what it covers, particularly on UK topics.
    Genuinely think PB is a good start. You have to be wary of certain posters reactions to stuff, but if something happens, it gets posted on PB.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2024
    TimS said:

    Remember those voters at the Hartlepool byelection in 2021.
    The Cummings/Boz approach was to play the insurgents, not as easy for Rishi, his millions and his safe Rural seat but, then again, its about convincing a few to backfill the foundations, not the majority
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    AlsoLei said:

    Weirdly, the whole speech was nakedly party political. Every sentence ended with "and that's why you'll be less safe with Keir Starmer", "unlike Labour in Wales", or "and that's why it's only the Conservatives who have a plan for the future".

    Why's he using the government lectern when this so clearly wasn't a government speech?
    Because he can? He's got a few months left where he is PM, so cut him some slack.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited May 2024

    Very interesting:

    Is interest rates an area where the media has badly misjudged the public mood? You'd think from most news programmes that the public is dying for a rate cut. Perhaps there will be quite a few people who'll be annoyed at having agreed a fixed deal at a higher rate.

    Geography? A regional breakdown would be good.

    This is an odd argument, as mortgages come up all the time for renewal. By this logic the bank should always increase rates so as to not annoy people who have remortgaged recently.

    On another financial matter, those of us with children born in April 2022 get the funding at the same time as anyone with a 9 mth+ child but missed out on the 2 yr old 15 hr implementation recently brought in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530

    Nick Lucas
    @nicklucas69
    ·
    44m
    Replying to
    @DPJHodges
    He’s had more launches than the RNLI
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    AlsoLei said:

    Weirdly, the whole speech was nakedly party political. Every sentence ended with "and that's why you'll be less safe with Keir Starmer", "unlike Labour in Wales", or "and that's why it's only the Conservatives who have a plan for the future".

    Why's he using the government lectern when this so clearly wasn't a government speech?
    It was a GE calling speech without calling a GE.

    I wonder if this speech was always in the calendar and might have been timed with an announcement if the locals had gone OK-ish? Would a dissolution now have given enough time for a vote before the school holidays? If so, perhaps a chance this could’ve been it, if it had not been for the locals.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Thanks - couldn't find it on the interweb, seems a bit niche. Is this a poster just being a bit of a dick, look how much more I know than you?
    My guess is that IRM is the English-language way that Hamas themselves use as their name when using English. And so, in some circles, Hamas would be viewed as a name provided by the enemy/colonisers. And then there's the benefit that IRM doesn't have all the subconscious connotations of barbarism that most people in the West will associate with Hamas.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    The tone of the speech is what I would expect from a leader of the opposition.

    I do think that some people will vote Tory because they think Starmer and Labour have failed in government. Starmer has been leader of the opposition for a lot longer than Sunak has been PM.

    Time for a change. Vote Starmer out!
    Again, if he really felt that Starmer was an empty shirt and he is the messiah - he'd call an election. The problem isn't that some of Sunak's criticisms of Starmer aren't true - I think his point on Starmer going from Corbyn to Elphicke is not a bad point that the LDs and Greens should probably say themselves - it's just that it makes no sense coming from Sunak who is also a vapid ideologue in exactly the same way. Sunak and Starmer see the end point of politics as being in power, not in actually enacting significant and important policies to benefit people. That's why Sunak is clinging onto being in government for as long as he can without actually doing much governing, and that's why Starmer can welcome Elphicke into the fold. Because the thing they both believe in, the neoliberal consensus, doesn't really need people who have ideas about policy, but those who continue to treat politics like a back and forward game.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257

    Genuinely think PB is a good start. You have to be wary of certain posters reactions to stuff, but if something happens, it gets posted on PB.
    Indeed. Even news on widows missing their husbands gets re-posted on here :wink:

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    Genuinely think PB is a good start. You have to be wary of certain posters reactions to stuff, but if something happens, it gets posted on PB.
    I get all my news from here. Why bother thinking what the BBC wants me to think?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Who funds the Policy Exchange Institute?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530

    Very interesting:

    Is interest rates an area where the media has badly misjudged the public mood? You'd think from most news programmes that the public is dying for a rate cut. Perhaps there will be quite a few people who'll be annoyed at having agreed a fixed deal at a higher rate.

    Geography? A regional breakdown would be good.

    And there are a lot of savers out there. Even with these interest rates, inflation has outstripped savings rates.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    On the header, I'd say that Rishi Sunak is getting "what we do" confused with "who we are".

    The underlying objection is to character, not actions. It's "make it stop and get them out".

    He could shift the moon to a different orbit, and many of the Electorate would not be interested.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,478
    Mr. Dyed, Shaka, when the walls fell.

    And with that, I must be off.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    If we are embracing the future why is Sunak so obsessed with oil and gas licences?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    It was a GE calling speech without calling a GE.

    I wonder if this speech was always in the calendar and might have been timed with an announcement if the locals had gone OK-ish? Would a dissolution now have given enough time for a vote before the school holidays? If so, perhaps a chance this could’ve been it, if it had not been for the locals.
    For pre schools hols he will need to call it pretty much on return from Whitsun on June 3rd
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    And there are a lot of savers out there. Even with these interest rates, inflation has outstripped savings rates.
    Is anyone that bothered about the paltry interest the banks pay on savings? It's a huge difference in importance to someone's mortgage payments going up.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    This is real weak sauce from Sunak. Vote for me because I can be trusted more with change? It’s just such a weird message for a party in power for 14 years. Casting around for gimmicks like this isn’t going to save him.

    After 14 years in power you have to be able to point to solid achievements and changes that make sense to the individual voter - brilliant NHS, solved housing problems especially in London, social housing working well, delivered on migration pledges, prisons nearly empty because of rehabilitation and education, police being effective, schools no problem because spoilt for choice, public finances sure and steady, Brexit deal now booming, illegal drugs a minimal problem, defences and armed forces sorted, northern transport systems as good as London - and so on.

    In don't think he has really touched on any of those matters. Why?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    Leon said:

    It’s quite something - how the Greens have evolved into this hideous new creature: obsessed with trans rights and Palestinian activism. It’s like worrying about rivers and badgers is a gateway drug into every kooky nonsensical radicalism they can find
    The Green Party is and always has been a greenwashed version of the Socialist Workers Party. Most of them do not have the first clue about ecology or earth science.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    TOPPING said:

    Always interesting to engage with PB posters. We have all kinds of views here. I'm not sure if The Donkmeister is actually saying anything (actually this last post of his was more telling than others) but it's an opinion - Hamas might be murdering thugs who deny Israel's right to exist and throw gays and their political opponents off buildings, but they do a lot of good work compensating families of martyrs, resisting the Zionist entity, etc - which many on PB share.
    Off to the Donkey Sanctuary with him, who keep targeting me on Youtube to tell me how much they need more money.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    edited May 2024
    So, if I have read this right, Sunak wishes to frame the GE as a "change vs the past" election.

    LOL.

    The guy is a genius. Absolutely.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    Common sense minister Esther McVey: "I would say that Rishi Sunak is an intellectual giant."

    I don't agree but I can see why Esther would think that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Mr. Dyed, Shaka, when the walls fell.

    And with that, I must be off.

    The beast at Tanagra. Shaka, when the walls fell

    Indeed
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    In a response to Rishi Sunak’s speech, the Lib Dem leader Ed Davey says Sunak should just call an election. “Instead of talking at people, Rishi Sunak should be listening to the public by calling a general election now,” Davey says.

    Guardian
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    I'm not sure that the electorate particularly wants more change in the next 5 years than in the previous 30. That may not be a popular thing to say.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,981
    Sir Keir needs to tread carefully. He's starting to look like lord over all he surveys. The Elphicke defection had the air of 'Idolize me mortals for I am your god.' Cooler heads should advise Sir Keir to temper his enthusiasm with some humility. Much more of this and voters will turn to Rishi just to spite him.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    kinabalu said:

    And it won't work. Starmer has closed that off along with every other tory attack line. It's been a masterclass really.
    A masterclass in saying "well other than me (did you know I used to be DPP?), the Labour front bench is full of lightweights and people who would struggle to get above lower middle management in the real world, but the Tories are all baby-eaters and it is time for a change. Basically we, Labour, are just a bit less crap than the tired out Tories. Vote for us, and if you can't, please don't vote at all. "

    That kind of masterclass
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    Leon said:

    It’s quite something - how the Greens have evolved into this hideous new creature: obsessed with trans rights and Palestinian activism. It’s like worrying about rivers and badgers is a gateway drug into every kooky nonsensical radicalism they can find
    It's almost like somebody wrote an article explaining why progressive politics is essential to, and a precondition of, one of the Greens' imagined future

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    So, if I have read this right, Sunak wishes to frame the GE as a "change vs the past" election.

    LOL.

    The guy is a genius. Absolutely.

    I actually detest his 'vision' (lack of would be a better description) for the future. Which is basically that Britain generally, and him specifically, has no agency, no way of bucking the trend or providing its subjects with a better life, so pick him, because things are going to shit, and he can put a mildly preferable spin on that shit compared to his rival. He's a pathetic, spineless vacuum of a Prime Minister. I'm actually 50/50 between him and Starmer now - I think Starmer might be worse, but at least the Tories would stand a chance of getting out of Sunak's cold, clammy grip.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    The Green Party is and always has been a greenwashed version of the Socialist Workers Party. Most of them do not have the first clue about ecology or earth science.
    Someone should start a Green Conservative Party.

    After all, 'conserve' ought to be in the Tories' DNA - but they have sold out to big money of course.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Pulpstar said:

    This is an odd argument, as mortgages come up all the time for renewal. By this logic the bank should always increase rates so as to not annoy people who have remortgaged recently.

    On another financial matter, those of us with children born in April 2022 get the funding at the same time as anyone with a 9 mth+ child but missed out on the 2 yr old 15 hr implementation recently brought in.
    Yeah but if you are fixed for another 2,3,4 years it hardly warrants much of a response.

    Another thing I found odd was rate expectations for 2027(?) being 2%. Why are people expecting rates to fall that much? Demographic factors? Japanisation?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    TBH if someone votes Tory because they think Starmer and Labour have failed in government then their vote should be voided. Surely no-one is that thick?
    Not many I grant you, but that's definitely a vibe Sunak seems to be aiming for - Starmer is the do-nothing candidate of the status quo, vote Tory for change - even though the status quo is in large part a result of 14 years of Tory government.

    It's weird because he's simultaneously trying to run the contrary message - look how well we've done, don't risk it with a vote for Labour.

    Maybe different voters will pick the message that fits best for them to self-justify a Tory vote.

    I've observed a similar effect in play with some women when justifying their choice to take their husband's surname. Some will say that their husband's name was simpler, easier to give to people over the phone and others will say they their husband's name was more interesting and not the boring simple name they were born with.

    Point is that they've made the decision for other reasons that they don't want to admit to, or aren't aware of, but they've grabbed for a simpler reason that's easier to use, even though on a population level it looks contradictory.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Is anyone that bothered about the paltry interest the banks pay on savings? It's a huge difference in importance to someone's mortgage payments going up.
    Easy to get north of 5 per cent

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/savings-accounts-best-interest/

    Lots of people don't like the stock market and presumably have biggish sums in these accounts
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,688

    @bondegezou

    Thanks for providing a selection of reading materials in the previous thread. None of the studies provided add a shred of weight to @SandyRentool's claim that 'climate change' caused the wildfires seen in Canada recently. None of them even alleges that climate change has ever caused a wildfire anywhere, though they do suggest that climate change (for which read a hotter, dryer climate) has increased the risk of more severe wildfires. Appropriately, that's bears shitting in the woods stuff.

    The resource that goes into this in the most depth deals with Australia - that obviously doesn't help much with Canada, and the three papers that it references that refer to North America are all about the USA.

    So, we’re agreed that climate change makes wildfires worse (and worse wildfires, in a vicious circle, dumps more CO2 into the atmosphere, increasing climate change). I think that’s the core point SandyRentool was making.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    algarkirk said:

    After 14 years in power you have to be able to point to solid achievements and changes that make sense to the individual voter - brilliant NHS, solved housing problems especially in London, social housing working well, delivered on migration pledges, prisons nearly empty because of rehabilitation and education, police being effective, schools no problem because spoilt for choice, public finances sure and steady, Brexit deal now booming, illegal drugs a minimal problem, defences and armed forces sorted, northern transport systems as good as London - and so on.

    In don't think he has really touched on any of those matters. Why?
    The only change the Tories can point to is Brexit. I can't for the life of me think why they aren't majoring on that.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    The tabloid-is-ation of the BBC News output in recent times (particularly online) is very depressing.

    On that point, does anyone have a better go-to online default news source? I have tried Reuters but it is too hit-and-miss with what it covers, particularly on UK topics.
    The R4 Today programme has hit a particularly dull patch. Increasing amounts of it are boring bits of stuff much more suited to magazine type progs like Woman's Hour and the dreadful whingefest You and Yours.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    Yeah but if you are fixed for another 2,3,4 years it hardly warrants much of a response.

    Another thing I found odd was rate expectations for 2027(?) being 2%. Why are people expecting rates to fall that much? Demographic factors? Japanisation?
    Hopemism that the world post 2008 is the new reality and that it wasn't a one off event due to unique circumstances...
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    Is anyone that bothered about the paltry interest the banks pay on savings? It's a huge difference in importance to someone's mortgage payments going up.
    I imagine that many of those who were upset by the NICs reduction will also be upset by any reduction in the interest paid on their savings, no matter how minimal...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    megasaur said:

    Easy to get north of 5 per cent

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/savings-accounts-best-interest/

    Lots of people don't like the stock market and presumably have biggish sums in these accounts
    It's generally just a great way of slowing down the erosion of your savings by inflation.
  • lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 61

    Very interesting:

    Is interest rates an area where the media has badly misjudged the public mood? You'd think from most news programmes that the public is dying for a rate cut. Perhaps there will be quite a few people who'll be annoyed at having agreed a fixed deal at a higher rate.

    Geography? A regional breakdown would be good.

    The thing is, if you have a typical £300,000 mortgage, interest rates rising 2% costs you £6000 a year whereas if you have a typical savings account of £10000 the rise only nets £200.
    The former is far more likely to affect your vote than the latter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198

    Someone should start a Green Conservative Party.

    After all, 'conserve' ought to be in the Tories' DNA - but they have sold out to big money of course.
    There is a big chunk of that already, in the existing Conservative Party.

    See the very old view that you don’t own land so much as be its caretaker for your lifetime.
This discussion has been closed.