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Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 13 in General
Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

How do Britons say a cut in interest rates would affect them?Positive impact: 19%Negative impact: 18%Little difference: 46%https://t.co/75Idy1uMOJ pic.twitter.com/0FQAWQPn1V

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Comments

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    First to agree!
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    Just a second.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    What about those people who have savings *and* a mortgage?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,283
    For @JosiasJessop , FPT.
    The wastewater sequencing effort started about a year ago.

    We have known for years that SARS-CoV-2 can be tracked in wastewater, so we figured, what the heck, let's track ALL the viruses we flush down the drain.

    @saracregeen and I uncovered communities of viruses that changed in space and time + tracking of specific pathogen levels ..

    https://twitter.com/MikeTisza/status/1654849607665426433

    The techniques are very well validated.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    Even the "if mortgage costs come down a bit" only works for those on variable rate mortgages. For the majority of people on fixed rates, the current dynamic is still the increase from about one percent to about five percent.

    That kicked in in summer/autumn '22, so the two year fixes should largely be through the process by now, but there will be five year fixers going through the system for a while yet.

    Bottom line: it's not the 1980s and you can't use an interest rate cut to engineer a quick consumer boom- the transmission mechanism is too laggy. Apologies to any Conservatives who fancied a bit of Lawson cosplay.

    Gee thanks for the mental image.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,246
    My mortgage is fixed for another 4 years so interest rate cuts will only affect income from savings. Negatively.

    So not a winner for me.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117

    Even the "if mortgage costs come down a bit" only works for those on variable rate mortgages. For the majority of people on fixed rates, the current dynamic is still the increase from about one percent to about five percent.

    That kicked in in summer/autumn '22, so the two year fixes should largely be through the process by now, but there will be five year fixers going through the system for a while yet.

    Bottom line: it's not the 1980s and you can't use an interest rate cut to engineer a quick consumer boom- the transmission mechanism is too laggy. Apologies to any Conservatives who fancied a bit of Lawson cosplay.

    I’m on the SVR (albeit with the Government’s interest only holiday) so come at me Lawson
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,283
    The heritage of Stalin's gulags lives on.

    ‘You say you are a musician, they beat you more’: the Ukrainian sax player who survived Putin’s torture prisons
    Yuriy Merkotan played in a military band and, after being caught up in the Mariupol siege, spent nearly two years in various jails
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/12/ukrainian-saxophonist-putin-torture-mariupol-siege
    ...At Borisoglebsk, prisoners were forbidden from sitting or lying between 6am and 10pm, when they were forced to stand up in their cells. Many developed serious leg injuries. The speaker system played the same few recorded radio programmes about Ukrainian Nazis over and over again.

    Twice a day, the inmates had to assemble in the corridor, face against the wall and legs apart as wide as they could manage. They were then assaulted by guards who beat them with rubber truncheons, and sometimes used handheld electric shockers.

    During the daily beating ritual, the men were forced to recite poems begging forgiveness from the “fraternal Russians” for Ukraine’s errant ways. They had to memorise the poems, and were beaten harder if they forgot lines or if the guards considered they were not putting enough emotion into them.

    Months later, Merkotan could still remember the long poems by heart. One fragment went: “There is no Ukraine without Russia / It’s as pointless as a lock without a key / We are all one family, even if we argued / But arguments can happen in a family.”..
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    You know how the Tories said that inflation going up wasn't their fault - external factors and all that? And we believed them because its true? Why do the same Tories now claim that interest rates falling are entirely their doing and we should all thank them for their mastery of inflation?

    How stupid do they think we are?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    You know how the Tories said that inflation going up wasn't their fault - external factors and all that? And we believed them because its true? Why do the same Tories now claim that interest rates falling are entirely their doing and we should all thank them for their mastery of inflation?

    How stupid do they think we are?

    They probably equate our intellect with their own.

    Which means they think we are very, very stupid...
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    ydoethur said:

    You know how the Tories said that inflation going up wasn't their fault - external factors and all that? And we believed them because its true? Why do the same Tories now claim that interest rates falling are entirely their doing and we should all thank them for their mastery of inflation?

    How stupid do they think we are?

    They probably equate our intellect with their own.

    Which means they think we are very, very stupid...
    It is the same bullshit that people try and say the Elphicke story is bad for Starmer.

    The biggest story today is that the then-Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice was a direct witness to a criminal attempt to pervert the course of justice, and covered it up for four years because it involved one of his political allies.

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1789720808476041651
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    ydoethur said:

    You know how the Tories said that inflation going up wasn't their fault - external factors and all that? And we believed them because its true? Why do the same Tories now claim that interest rates falling are entirely their doing and we should all thank them for their mastery of inflation?

    How stupid do they think we are?

    They probably equate our intellect with their own.

    Which means they think we are very, very stupid...
    In fact, it occurs to me they probably think we are stupider than they are.

    Which is deeply worrying.

    No wonder they think we are barely on a level with plants...
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,400

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    So not much Free Speech on Twitter it seems.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    Foxy said:

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    So not much Free Speech on Twitter it seems.
    Not with Musk. He always charges.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    Reform UK doesn't seem to have a very viable business model. Owned by Farage, and 80% financed by loans from Tice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/13/reform-uk-richard-tice-loans-party-funding?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    edited May 13

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
    Hmm, lets see.
    David Duguid isn't just an open advocate of Liz Truss, he is made a minister for 5 minutes as a reward
    Liz Truss then crashed the economy which is why our mortgages have gone up.

    Duguid enables Truss causing mortgages hike.

    No, I think that covers it. Who do you think is to blame, if it isn't Truss?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,950
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    So not much Free Speech on Twitter it seems.
    Not with Musk. He always charges.
    If something appears free on the Internet, you are the product.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    You do realise that Metro article was not about TR?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    Foxy said:

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    So not much Free Speech on Twitter it seems.
    Not known whether self deleted (problematic history?) or blocked - so we don't know.

    That both should disappear at the same time is certainly curious.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,283
    Telegram has launched a pretty intense campaign to malign Signal as insecure, with assistance from Elon Musk. The goal seems to be to get activists to switch away from encrypted Signal to mostly-unencrypted Telegram. I want to talk about this a bit...
    https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1789687898863792453
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
    Liz Truss Tax !!!!!

    I guess Liz Truss is also responsible for rising interest rates and mortgage costs in all developed economies too.

    We are reverting back to where interest rates should be longer term. Good. As someone else says, money has to have value and for savers, like myself, I am quite happy with interest rates where they are.

    You follow the same "logic" then savers owe Liz Truss a debt of gratitude.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    Foxy said:

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    So not much Free Speech on Twitter it seems.
    Why ?

    They chose to remove their accounts they were not banned.

    If you can't stand the heat. Etc etc.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436


    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    Rwanda and trans are psychotic obsessions.

    The rest of the country has far more important matters to be dealing with than culture wars against migrants and minorities.

    As I’ve said, you will have a LOOOOOONG time in the political wilderness to reflect on these words and the cul-de-sac into which you have driven yourself.

    Off for a long hike. Have a nice day everyone ;):)

    xx
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    You do realise that Metro article was not about TR?
    You do realise Carlotta is not claiming it was there :wink:
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    So not much Free Speech on Twitter it seems.
    Not with Musk. He always charges.
    If something appears free on the Internet, you are the product.
    So, we’re talking to each other on this Internet forum… are we both the product?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,950
    Nigelb said:

    Telegram has launched a pretty intense campaign to malign Signal as insecure, with assistance from Elon Musk. The goal seems to be to get activists to switch away from encrypted Signal to mostly-unencrypted Telegram. I want to talk about this a bit...
    https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1789687898863792453

    What is interesting there is that he describes the security of Signal and the obvious dislike for Signal by Telegram. But there is not mention of... something.

    Click bait by putting a name in a headline?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,625
    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    ydoethur said:

    You know how the Tories said that inflation going up wasn't their fault - external factors and all that? And we believed them because its true? Why do the same Tories now claim that interest rates falling are entirely their doing and we should all thank them for their mastery of inflation?

    How stupid do they think we are?

    They probably equate our intellect with their own.

    Which means they think we are very, very stupid...
    They're stupid enough to think we're all as stupid as them.

    (That's probably unfair, though it is a neat slogan. The government seem to be falling into the clever-but-foolish category. Clever enough to devise attack lines, foolish enough to not realise how quickly they will boomerang back onto them. I suspect that there's a bunker/bubble mentality underpinning a lot of it.)
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079

    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.

    Will his vision be as good as Eurovision?
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    Having coffee by the beach

    The forecast told me it was going to be cloudy all day


  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    Having coffee by the beach

    The forecast told me it was going to be cloudy all day


    Where your troubles will be out of reach

    On the beach
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    Taz said:

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
    Liz Truss Tax !!!!!

    I guess Liz Truss is also responsible for rising interest rates and mortgage costs in all developed economies too.

    We are reverting back to where interest rates should be longer term. Good. As someone else says, money has to have value and for savers, like myself, I am quite happy with interest rates where they are.

    You follow the same "logic" then savers owe Liz Truss a debt of gratitude.
    It’s a curious argument you make. Deliberate cognitive disconnection between events, logic and reason to score political points for a party you don’t support.

    Out of interest, which other country had the same economic Lizaster as we did at the same time to the same extent?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154

    Having coffee by the beach

    The forecast told me it was going to be cloudy all day


    Years ago a load of us went skinny dipping on that beach after a suitably pissy night. One of our friend’s girlfriends stole our clothes and ran up towards the promenade and as we started walking back towards it we realised that there are loads and loads of people walking the promenade late at night so we had to retrieve our clothes to a load of cheering and laughing people. Strangely not remotely my most embarrassing thing in my life.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    You do realise that Metro article was not about TR?
    Yes, but Metro has long been a vocal supporter of TR, and we don't know why they deleted their account or whether it was blocked.

    The issue with Dr Who is not the sex, gender or sexuality of the Dr - the issue is with the writing and plots. Time for it to go back into hibernation.
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    Doogle1941Doogle1941 Posts: 14

    Taz said:

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
    Liz Truss Tax !!!!!

    I guess Liz Truss is also responsible for rising interest rates and mortgage costs in all developed economies too.

    We are reverting back to where interest rates should be longer term. Good. As someone else says, money has to have value and for savers, like myself, I am quite happy with interest rates where they are.

    You follow the same "logic" then savers owe Liz Truss a debt of gratitude.
    It’s a curious argument you make. Deliberate cognitive disconnection between events, logic and reason to score political points for a party you don’t support.

    Out of interest, which other country had the same economic Lizaster as we did at the same time to the same extent?
    Check the unique behaviour of the BoE at that time. They obviously thought Truss was going to deviate from e.u. rules and n.i. needed to be annexed.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    Heathener said:


    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    As I’ve said, you will have a LOOOOOONG time in the political wilderness to reflect on these words and the cul-de-sac into which you have driven yourself.
    Like the Scottish Greens?

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    Heathener said:


    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    As I’ve said, you will have a LOOOOOONG time in the political wilderness to reflect on these words and the cul-de-sac into which you have driven yourself.
    Like the Scottish Greens?

    They've already got the Bute.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043

    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.

    Six months in London and Richmond, then four and a half years in California?
    Rishi still seems convinced that if only people could hear more from him then the polls would turn. When in reality isn’t the truth the opposite?

    I think Starmer has a real problem on his hands with Elphicke. Never mind that all the bad shit she did was as a Tory: their best hope of closing the gap is to convince everyone Labour are just as bad and you can’t trust any party, so you might as well stick with the ones who will stand up against woke and guarantee your pension.

    So a period of silence right now would benefit the Tories. But no, he has to go and try to engage with the public.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964

    Even the "if mortgage costs come down a bit" only works for those on variable rate mortgages. For the majority of people on fixed rates, the current dynamic is still the increase from about one percent to about five percent.

    That kicked in in summer/autumn '22, so the two year fixes should largely be through the process by now, but there will be five year fixers going through the system for a while yet.

    Bottom line: it's not the 1980s and you can't use an interest rate cut to engineer a quick consumer boom- the transmission mechanism is too laggy. Apologies to any Conservatives who fancied a bit of Lawson cosplay.

    Just on the "That kicked in in summer/autumn '22, so the two year fixes should largely be through the process by now" point:

    Those on 2 year fixes when rates jumped would be on average halfway through their term so assuming they took another 2 year fix at renewal, by September 2024 only half of them will still be on that 5%+ rate with up to a year to go.

    Even then, cutting rates by half a percent is not going to transform rates back to their pre-Truss sub 2% levels
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    Why the Tory party must die. Part ONE


    “The British Conservatives rode the coattails of Brexit to historic majorities, and then promptly presided over the highest immigration levels in their small island nation's history.

    42% of the U.K.'s total foreign-born population came in after 2010 — all under Conservative rule.”

    https://x.com/njhochman/status/1789430051810783462?s=46
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    Prosecutors will receive the police report on charges against ex-SNP chief executive Peter Murrell within weeks, Scotland's top officer has said.

    Chief Constable Jo Farrell declined to say whether any other person will face charges in relation to Operation Branchform, the long-running probe into SNP finances.

    Murrell, the husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was charged in relation to the investigation last month.


    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,police-to-hand-snp-report-to-prosecutors-within-weeks-chief-constable-says
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    @bondegezou

    Thanks for providing a selection of reading materials in the previous thread. None of the studies provided add a shred of weight to @SandyRentool's claim that 'climate change' caused the wildfires seen in Canada recently. None of them even alleges that climate change has ever caused a wildfire anywhere, though they do suggest that climate change (for which read a hotter, dryer climate) has increased the risk of more severe wildfires. Appropriately, that's bears shitting in the woods stuff.

    The resource that goes into this in the most depth deals with Australia - that obviously doesn't help much with Canada, and the three papers that it references that refer to North America are all about the USA.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    Given what happens when there is one, I can see why.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,253

    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.

    Does this mean he is calling the Election at around 11.37?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    One factor that the polling does not cover is the effect on the media. I remember some time ago there was a study which showed that the young, well paid staff with London mortgages were extremely sensitive to any increase in the base rate one way or another. I suspect since those times sensitivity has fallen somewhat with the use of fixed rate mortgages but I am sure it is still there. The BBC and similar outlets at ITV and Sky will show a reduction in mortgage rates as a good thing.

    In the rest of the world there are both winners and losers. For the first time for considerably more than a decade savers are getting a real return on their savings, if they pay attention to where their money is. The really important number is the differential. I expect fairly sharp falls in inflation in the next couple of months so that differential will increase and a small reduction in the base rate will not change the overall picture.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    You do realise that Metro article was not about TR?
    Yes, but Metro has long been a vocal supporter of TR, and we don't know why they deleted their account or whether it was blocked.

    The issue with Dr Who is not the sex, gender or sexuality of the Dr - the issue is with the writing and plots. Time for it to go back into hibernation.
    Utterly agree with your last line - it's why I don't watch it any more (hence leaving myself open to comments of "How do you know if you don't watch it?'. To which my reply is: 'Are you telling me the plotting and scripting has improved'?)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315
    Desperate times here at the Jessop household.

    Mrs J is installing a new piece of tech, and we have been forced to.... (deep breath).

    Read the manual...
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964
    What was the antisemitic trope Liz Truss perpetuated?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700

    Taz said:

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
    Liz Truss Tax !!!!!

    I guess Liz Truss is also responsible for rising interest rates and mortgage costs in all developed economies too.

    We are reverting back to where interest rates should be longer term. Good. As someone else says, money has to have value and for savers, like myself, I am quite happy with interest rates where they are.

    You follow the same "logic" then savers owe Liz Truss a debt of gratitude.
    It’s a curious argument you make. Deliberate cognitive disconnection between events, logic and reason to score political points for a party you don’t support.

    Out of interest, which other country had the same economic Lizaster as we did at the same time to the same extent?
    What is the connection that you're seeking to establish between the mini-budget and the Bank of England's decision to increase interest rates. I'd genuinely like to hear you explain it.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    Another disappearing Twitter account:



    https://twitter.com/prideukorg

    Both it and Metro were vocal TR advocates.

    You do realise that Metro article was not about TR?
    Yes, but Metro has long been a vocal supporter of TR, and we don't know why they deleted their account or whether it was blocked.

    The issue with Dr Who is not the sex, gender or sexuality of the Dr - the issue is with the writing and plots. Time for it to go back into hibernation.
    Utterly agree with your last line - it's why I don't watch it any more (hence leaving myself open to comments of "How do you know if you don't watch it?'. To which my reply is: 'Are you telling me the plotting and scripting has improved'?)
    Bizarre fact.

    Dr Who is the longest running sci-fi programme ever.

    And also the second longest running sci-fi programme ever...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,431
    edited May 13
    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964
    Leon said:

    Why the Tory party must die. Part ONE


    “The British Conservatives rode the coattails of Brexit to historic majorities, and then promptly presided over the highest immigration levels in their small island nation's history.

    42% of the U.K.'s total foreign-born population came in after 2010 — all under Conservative rule.”

    https://x.com/njhochman/status/1789430051810783462?s=46

    Yet I bet their over-65 core supporters still think the Tories are tough on immigration.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    Prosecutors will receive the police report on charges against ex-SNP chief executive Peter Murrell within weeks, Scotland's top officer has said.

    Chief Constable Jo Farrell declined to say whether any other person will face charges in relation to Operation Branchform, the long-running probe into SNP finances.

    Murrell, the husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was charged in relation to the investigation last month.


    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,police-to-hand-snp-report-to-prosecutors-within-weeks-chief-constable-says

    I loved this:

    "Farrell told the broadcaster she agrees with her predecessor, Sir Iain Livingston, that the single force is institutionally racist, but said the "vast majority" of personnel "withhold the standards we would expect of them in policing".

    Pretty sure that is not what she meant.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.

    Does this mean he is calling the Election at around 11.37?
    Maybe playing a few Beach Boys numbers to set the right tone?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964
    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    Well why don't you REDACTED REDACTED then?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,431

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    Well why don't you REDACTED REDACTED then?
    I think you’re allowed to say ‘off’.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964
    DavidL said:

    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.

    Does this mean he is calling the Election at around 11.37?
    Maybe playing a few Beach Boys numbers to set the right tone?
    Wouldn't it be nice.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733

    ydoethur said:

    You know how the Tories said that inflation going up wasn't their fault - external factors and all that? And we believed them because its true? Why do the same Tories now claim that interest rates falling are entirely their doing and we should all thank them for their mastery of inflation?

    How stupid do they think we are?

    They probably equate our intellect with their own.

    Which means they think we are very, very stupid...
    It is the same bullshit that people try and say the Elphicke story is bad for Starmer.

    The biggest story today is that the then-Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice was a direct witness to a criminal attempt to pervert the course of justice, and covered it up for four years because it involved one of his political allies.

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1789720808476041651
    That is not the biggest story today. Whether it should be is another matter, and might depend on SKS's PMQs team.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    edited May 13

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    Well why don't you REDACTED REDACTED then?
    I was interested to see if someone would take my place as PB’s info source. No one has. So PB is less well informed. Hey ho

    If it pleases the pub so be it. I obey the rules. I stick to travel anecdotes and hoping the Tories will expire

    But if there is anyone who DOES want to know what I - and many others - think about REDACTED then head over to Reddit. That’s where I now spend much of my time
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    Give it a rest. It is bad enough you posting the same AI drivel on here day after day, month after month, without getting your sock puppet prime minister to plant stories in the Mail.

    Rishi Sunak to warn UK is entering 'dangerous era' due to challenges of AI, migration and authoritarian states that will see 'almost every aspect' of British lives change over next five years
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13409979/Rishi-Sunak-UK-dangerous-era-challenges-AI-migration-authoritarian-British-lives-change.html
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    Leon said:

    Why the Tory party must die. Part ONE


    “The British Conservatives rode the coattails of Brexit to historic majorities, and then promptly presided over the highest immigration levels in their small island nation's history.

    42% of the U.K.'s total foreign-born population came in after 2010 — all under Conservative rule.”

    https://x.com/njhochman/status/1789430051810783462?s=46

    Yet I bet their over-65 core supporters still think the Tories are tough on immigration.
    Yet they will completely disassociate their feelings from the lovely girl who cleans them up, changes their dressings, brings them meals, tidies their house or the fine young man who cuts their grass, washes their car and delivers their takeaways, or the excellent service they get in the local restaurant, or the taxi driver who takes them home or....you get the point.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,740
    DavidL said:

    One factor that the polling does not cover is the effect on the media. I remember some time ago there was a study which showed that the young, well paid staff with London mortgages were extremely sensitive to any increase in the base rate one way or another. I suspect since those times sensitivity has fallen somewhat with the use of fixed rate mortgages but I am sure it is still there. The BBC and similar outlets at ITV and Sky will show a reduction in mortgage rates as a good thing.

    In the rest of the world there are both winners and losers. For the first time for considerably more than a decade savers are getting a real return on their savings, if they pay attention to where their money is. The really important number is the differential. I expect fairly sharp falls in inflation in the next couple of months so that differential will increase and a small reduction in the base rate will not change the overall picture.

    Yes. The interest rate thing is a prime example of a tendency only to look at one side of a story. IMHO the BBC are especially guilty of this. The natural state of sound money is that you can borrow and/or invest it with varying degrees of risk according to taste. Since 2008 the boring prudent saver has spent years being robbed, in order to provide free mortgages for some, and free rises in asset values for a lot of wealthy people. This should never have happened, and the long term effects are bad.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    This lady laying on the beach is almost certainly smoking a joint

    I saw her tear up a cigarette and mix the tobacco with something from a little bag, and then roll it up


  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,171
    People who are more likely to be borrowers benefit from lower interest rates.

    People who are more likely to be savers benefit from higher interest rates.

    Not a surprise.

    Politicians and journalists seem always to prefer lower interest rates.

    That perhaps tells us some thing about politicians and journalists.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    Desperate times here at the Jessop household.

    Mrs J is installing a new piece of tech, and we have been forced to.... (deep breath).

    Read the manual...

    Oh Lord, sympathies.

    It will probably make slightly more sense if you find the pages in English first. Only slightly.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    Give it a rest. It is bad enough you posting the same AI drivel on here day after day, month after month, without getting your sock puppet prime minister to plant stories in the Mail.

    Rishi Sunak to warn UK is entering 'dangerous era' due to challenges of AI, migration and authoritarian states that will see 'almost every aspect' of British lives change over next five years
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13409979/Rishi-Sunak-UK-dangerous-era-challenges-AI-migration-authoritarian-British-lives-change.html
    Rishi Sunak gets this. Its the only thing he does get

    By “this” I am of course referring to the sartorial elan of weirdly overshot trousers
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,950
    a

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    The last word on Twatter - https://youtu.be/d3Mrfut-FSw?si=VSRIjVi3aKG1wBeM
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    DavidL said:

    Morning all,

    Sunak will set out his vision for the next five years in a speech this morning apparently.

    LOL.

    Does this mean he is calling the Election at around 11.37?
    Maybe playing a few Beach Boys numbers to set the right tone?
    Wouldn't it be nice.
    His wife probably wouldn't appreciate California Girls quite so much.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,870
    I have started listening to a podcast about tech and tech journalism from an interesting guy who has worked in tech PR for the last few years called "Better Offline":

    https://www.betteroffline.com/

    He shares some of my myopic views of recent self-congratulatory tech boosterism around AI, comparing it to the similar bubbles of NFTs, crypto, the metaverse, etc. One of his most recent episodes talks about the current capabilities of AI and which private companies are buying it (which are minimal and not many). May be an interest counter to those here who like to get out the champagne and declare world wide revolution every time REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,950
    DavidL said:

    Desperate times here at the Jessop household.

    Mrs J is installing a new piece of tech, and we have been forced to.... (deep breath).

    Read the manual...

    Oh Lord, sympathies.

    It will probably make slightly more sense if you find the pages in English first. Only slightly.
    I prefer the pages in Hindi. The characters are interesting to look at, and the amount of information I gain is the same.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
    Ha, Lozza Fox was exactly who I was thinking of.
    PBers are so balanced and perfectly formed and that we probably find it difficult to understand how social media can distort a person but the incontrovertible evidence is that it does. How much more powerful when you have millions hanging on your every word waiting to spray it with likes?
    It applies to all sides. Owen Jones on the left has been shifted further left by the same process. Gary Lineker - already quite a ridiculous narcissist - has become even more ridiculous and narcissistic and clownish. Remoaners like AC Grayling - egged on by the FBPE maniacs - actually went mad

    Its a sad spectacle whenever it happens. But it is quite a spectacle to see
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,740
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Why the Tory party must die. Part ONE


    “The British Conservatives rode the coattails of Brexit to historic majorities, and then promptly presided over the highest immigration levels in their small island nation's history.

    42% of the U.K.'s total foreign-born population came in after 2010 — all under Conservative rule.”

    https://x.com/njhochman/status/1789430051810783462?s=46

    Yet I bet their over-65 core supporters still think the Tories are tough on immigration.
    Yet they will completely disassociate their feelings from the lovely girl who cleans them up, changes their dressings, brings them meals, tidies their house or the fine young man who cuts their grass, washes their car and delivers their takeaways, or the excellent service they get in the local restaurant, or the taxi driver who takes them home or....you get the point.
    On behalf of these over 65s (guilty as charged) I draw attention to some figures. In the latest YouGov data, of each 100 over 65s asked, 24 supported the Tories. 31 supported Lab/LD/G. And 18 supported Reform. That's 42 right/centre right leaning; 31 left/centre left leaning. There were 25 DK/won't vote. Among the over 65s there are no majorities, only pluralities; like the rest they are a mixed bunch.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
    Ha, Lozza Fox was exactly who I was thinking of.
    PBers are so balanced and perfectly formed that we probably find it difficult to understand how social media can distort a person but the incontrovertible evidence is that it does. How much more powerful when you have millions hanging on your every word waiting to spray it with likes?

    We see the same phenomena with Trump. You have to be ever more outrageous, ever more biting and ever punchier to keep their interest. There is an inevitable upward ratchet.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    edited May 13

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    Give it a rest. It is bad enough you posting the same AI drivel on here day after day, month after month, without getting your sock puppet prime minister to plant stories in the Mail.

    Rishi Sunak to warn UK is entering 'dangerous era' due to challenges of AI, migration and authoritarian states that will see 'almost every aspect' of British lives change over next five years
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13409979/Rishi-Sunak-UK-dangerous-era-challenges-AI-migration-authoritarian-British-lives-change.html
    If RishiSunak is a @Leon sock, I would be impressed. Worried, but impressed. :)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,283
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Telegram has launched a pretty intense campaign to malign Signal as insecure, with assistance from Elon Musk. The goal seems to be to get activists to switch away from encrypted Signal to mostly-unencrypted Telegram. I want to talk about this a bit...
    https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1789687898863792453

    What is interesting there is that he describes the security of Signal and the obvious dislike for Signal by Telegram. But there is not mention of... something.

    Click bait by putting a name in a headline?
    Not really.

    There are known vulnerabilities with Signal that are not being addressed. Seems odd …
    Readers added context
    There is no evidence that suggests Signal has "known vulnerabilities that are not being addressed". Due to Signal's open source nature, among other factors, this is easy to verify.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1787589564917490059
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,431
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
    Ha, Lozza Fox was exactly who I was thinking of.
    PBers are so balanced and perfectly formed that we probably find it difficult to understand how social media can distort a person but the incontrovertible evidence is that it does. How much more powerful when you have millions hanging on your every word waiting to spray it with likes?

    We see the same phenomena with Trump. You have to be ever more outrageous, ever more biting and ever punchier to keep their interest. There is an inevitable upward ratchet.
    But then the ratchet breaks and you descend into burbling about wonderful man Hannibal Lecter or poking transphobic fun at photos of trans people.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Well there is this: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1ap2fzi/reddit_slowly_being_taken_over_by_aigenerated/

    Any particular reddit discussions ("subreddits"), or just general AI? No need to open an account, I'll just read.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766

    What was the antisemitic trope Liz Truss perpetuated?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68853672.amp
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,870
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Telegram has launched a pretty intense campaign to malign Signal as insecure, with assistance from Elon Musk. The goal seems to be to get activists to switch away from encrypted Signal to mostly-unencrypted Telegram. I want to talk about this a bit...
    https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1789687898863792453

    What is interesting there is that he describes the security of Signal and the obvious dislike for Signal by Telegram. But there is not mention of... something.

    Click bait by putting a name in a headline?
    Not really.

    There are known vulnerabilities with Signal that are not being addressed. Seems odd …
    Readers added context
    There is no evidence that suggests Signal has "known vulnerabilities that are not being addressed". Due to Signal's open source nature, among other factors, this is easy to verify.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1787589564917490059
    I saw this thread earlier on this topic that seems to suggest that Signal is actually much more secure than Telegram:

    https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1789687898863792453

    I mean, from the point of view of the state (and well known union buster Musk) I'm sure more people using the less secure Telegram would be preferable for them...
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Telegram has launched a pretty intense campaign to malign Signal as insecure, with assistance from Elon Musk. The goal seems to be to get activists to switch away from encrypted Signal to mostly-unencrypted Telegram. I want to talk about this a bit...
    https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1789687898863792453

    What is interesting there is that he describes the security of Signal and the obvious dislike for Signal by Telegram. But there is not mention of... something.

    Click bait by putting a name in a headline?
    Not really.

    There are known vulnerabilities with Signal that are not being addressed. Seems odd …
    Readers added context
    There is no evidence that suggests Signal has "known vulnerabilities that are not being addressed". Due to Signal's open source nature, among other factors, this is easy to verify.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1787589564917490059
    Community notes are probably the one good thing to happen to Twitter since Musk took over!
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,973
    edited May 13
    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,283
    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    The rest of are quite prepared to wait until 5pm, while you brace.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,181
    edited May 13
    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,253
    I still don't think Bank Rate will go below 4% in the short to medium term. But I might be wrong!
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