Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
    Ha, Lozza Fox was exactly who I was thinking of.
    PBers are so balanced and perfectly formed that we probably find it difficult to understand how social media can distort a person but the incontrovertible evidence is that it does. How much more powerful when you have millions hanging on your every word waiting to spray it with likes?

    We see the same phenomena with Trump. You have to be ever more outrageous, ever more biting and ever punchier to keep their interest. There is an inevitable upward ratchet.
    It’s a variant of the radicalisation spiral. Which existed before the Internet. But has become much easier to get into because of social media. And the spiral is actively promoted by the algorithms that promote content.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,755
    Just caught up on the JK Rowling story, and whatever one's views of her she does seem to have abused her power by picking on, and ridiculing, a pretty powerless minor football team manager. I think she should back off mocking people who don't really have the power to answer back; it's rather unseemly.

    It would be wise, I think, for JKR to apologise on X for her misjudgment - she would be given credit by all sides in the debate. But I doubt she will.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    What's with the arm signal at 1:25 in the Israeli performance at the Eurovision final?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K60BWlEhtAA#t=1m22s

    For reference, see A-Ba-Ni-Bi from 1978.
    Choreographed letter play may also feature in the run-up to 1:25.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,544
    I hadn't realised Chris Bryant's melanoma was so late stage.
    Without targeted immunotherapy, he'd probably be dead by now.

    Some have asked what my mole looked like in 2019. Here it is, and after surgery. Five years later it’s come back in my right lung, but it’s been cut out and I’m now cancer free.* Immunotherapy should keep it that way. Let’s beat skin cancer. ⁩
    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1789920042307494199

    (* In remission; hopefully for a long, long time.
    I'm not sure you're ever "cancer free".)
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,156
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,012

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    edited May 13
    Donkeys said:

    What's with the arm signal at 1:25 in the Israeli performance at the Eurovision final?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K60BWlEhtAA#t=1m22s

    For reference, see A-Ba-Ni-Bi from 1978.
    Choreographed letter play may also feature in the run-up to 1:25.

    uh oh.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,478

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
    Script kiddies. :)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,426
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
    He’s a non techie. Things that you (and I) do casually…

    On the weekend, I was rowing. Someone asked about the custom foot stretcher I built. Simple stuff really. But I was talking to someone for whom changing a fuse was an adventure.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,162
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Lol. I don’t bleat. Go to reddit

    *adopts slightly metallic voice*

    I’M AFRAID THAT’S THE END OF THE MESSAGE, DAVE ASTOR
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133
    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    What's with the arm signal at 1:25 in the Israeli performance at the Eurovision final?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K60BWlEhtAA#t=1m22s

    For reference, see A-Ba-Ni-Bi from 1978.
    Choreographed letter play may also feature in the run-up to 1:25.

    uh oh.
    Darn it, he’s cracked the code. “All Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs will attack Pearl Harbour, December 7th”

    Now we’ll have to reschedule.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,156
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,162
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Well there is this: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1ap2fzi/reddit_slowly_being_taken_over_by_aigenerated/

    Any particular reddit discussions ("subreddits"), or just general AI? No need to open an account, I'll just read.
    DM for you
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
    Script kiddies. :)
    Yeah. Real Programmers handmake a bow drill to start a fire, melt some sand, whittle some silicon…
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 13

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
    Ha, Lozza Fox was exactly who I was thinking of.
    PBers are so balanced and perfectly formed that we probably find it difficult to understand how social media can distort a person but the incontrovertible evidence is that it does. How much more powerful when you have millions hanging on your every word waiting to spray it with likes?

    We see the same phenomena with Trump. You have to be ever more outrageous, ever more biting and ever punchier to keep their interest. There is an inevitable upward ratchet.
    It’s a variant of the radicalisation spiral. Which existed before the Internet. But has become much easier to get into because of social media. And the spiral is actively promoted by the algorithms that promote content.
    Thank God for Prevent - the thin line between humanity and Satanic rule forever. Experts in the radicalisation vortex have incontrovertibly proved the dynamic, under strictest peer review, with every chain in their argument having being rigorously Kahnemann-checked. H G Wells only knew the half of it. Mumsy and Pater were so right when they told us who we shouldn't play with.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,282

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    And that list is almost entirely Russian trolls; the list of 'fine' banned posters is probably zero.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    The rest of are quite prepared to wait until 5pm, while you brace.
    Which time zone are the aliens using?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    edited May 13
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Lol. I don’t bleat. Go to reddit

    *adopts slightly metallic voice*

    I’M AFRAID THAT’S THE END OF THE MESSAGE, DAVE ASTOR
    Me? Founder of Jupiter Asset Management and Chair of Trustees of the Wychwood Forest Trust, here, slumming it on PB, ranting at the moon along with the other loons? With my reputation?
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,012
    edited May 13

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
    Script kiddies. :)
    Lol. Yes. Writing one from scratch might take a bit longer.

    I think for extra points you'd have to train one on your own flints.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,282
    O/T I see the Met Office long range forecast may be simply summarised as "we don't have a f*cking clue"...

    Monday 27 May - Monday 10 Jun
    Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120
    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,156
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,691
    Nigelb said:

    I hadn't realised Chris Bryant's melanoma was so late stage.
    Without targeted immunotherapy, he'd probably be dead by now.

    Some have asked what my mole looked like in 2019. Here it is, and after surgery. Five years later it’s come back in my right lung, but it’s been cut out and I’m now cancer free.* Immunotherapy should keep it that way. Let’s beat skin cancer. ⁩
    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1789920042307494199

    (* In remission; hopefully for a long, long time.
    I'm not sure you're ever "cancer free".)

    The last hit is an interesting question. I was in molecular remission by December 2012, so am now 11+ years in remission and so believe myself cured. But there is always a chance of relapse. Certainly life insurance is way more expensive for me...
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120

    O/T I see the Met Office long range forecast may be simply summarised as "we don't have a f*cking clue"...

    Monday 27 May - Monday 10 Jun
    Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.

    They've lost the bit of seaweed Carole Kirkwood hangs on her door
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,689

    O/T I see the Met Office long range forecast may be simply summarised as "we don't have a f*cking clue"...

    Monday 27 May - Monday 10 Jun
    Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.

    This is indeed the power of AI writ large. Tomorrow's weather will be similar to today's weather with some minor variations. Our assimilation is inevitable.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Good morning, everyone.

    Glad to hear that, Mr. Megasaur.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,705

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    The LDs could really use a nice defection from some suitable Tory, if one such still exists
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,523
    IanB2 said:

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    The LDs could really use a nice defection from some suitable Tory, if one such still exists
    I believe a recent high profile Tory was an LD at one point..
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,799

    O/T I see the Met Office long range forecast may be simply summarised as "we don't have a f*cking clue"...

    Monday 27 May - Monday 10 Jun
    Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.

    It's the genre of prolix cover-your-arsemanship that the Bank of England also excels in.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    Yes, it's noticeable. Like the 200/20 strategy, subtly indicating 160 odd are OK and they're aiming to hold as much above as possible. Probably see more words like 'chipper' and 'bouyant' slipping in and 'wobbles' 'nervousness' 'misstep' on Labour. Still think timing is all hinged on flights leaving
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133
    Donkeys said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:
    Striking that even the Speccie & a fellow traveller feel Rowling may have gone too far. Perhaps indicates that conducting one’s ‘campaign’ entirely on twitter buoyed up by millions of adoring followers who turn on any challenger is not good for one’s sense of proportion (or as Hayton says, one’s capacity for kindness).
    Yes, and for once I would agree with that vile neo-fascist rag The “so-called” Spectator

    Rowling was right all along, she has been vindicated, she is entitled to feel angry and even maybe to want revenge. But revenge is best dished out slowly after some time in the chill box. She should rein it in for now

    She risks turning into a kind of billionaire Lozza Fox. Radicalised by her sense of persecution online
    Ha, Lozza Fox was exactly who I was thinking of.
    PBers are so balanced and perfectly formed that we probably find it difficult to understand how social media can distort a person but the incontrovertible evidence is that it does. How much more powerful when you have millions hanging on your every word waiting to spray it with likes?

    We see the same phenomena with Trump. You have to be ever more outrageous, ever more biting and ever punchier to keep their interest. There is an inevitable upward ratchet.
    It’s a variant of the radicalisation spiral. Which existed before the Internet. But has become much easier to get into because of social media. And the spiral is actively promoted by the algorithms that promote content.
    Thank God for Prevent - the thin line between humanity and Satanic rule forever. Experts in the radicalisation vortex have incontrovertibly proved the dynamic, under strictest peer review, with every chain in their argument having being rigorously Kahnemann-checked. H G Wells only knew the half of it. Mumsy and Pater were so right when they told us who we shouldn't play with.
    The radicalisation spiral was studied and written about long before the Internet, Prevent or any of that.

    IIRC the term was first used about the progression of supporters of the National Front in the early 60s.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,689
    megasaur said:

    Nigelb said:

    I hadn't realised Chris Bryant's melanoma was so late stage.
    Without targeted immunotherapy, he'd probably be dead by now.

    Some have asked what my mole looked like in 2019. Here it is, and after surgery. Five years later it’s come back in my right lung, but it’s been cut out and I’m now cancer free.* Immunotherapy should keep it that way. Let’s beat skin cancer. ⁩
    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1789920042307494199

    (* In remission; hopefully for a long, long time.
    I'm not sure you're ever "cancer free".)

    You are. 11 years on I have been discharged as of 5 years ago and assured I am level pegging with the never had it lot. Although there is the slight irony that many forms of radio and chemotherapy are themselves carcinogenic, so at slightly elevated risk.
    The radiotherapy that my mother received from her first breast cancer ultimately killed her. The consultant was quite candid about it (which earned her a lot of kudos in my eyes) stating that the level of treatment she got, and in particular the proximity of the sites treated would simply not be done now but was genuinely believed to be the best treatment at the time. My mum took it pretty well. Candour is profoundly disarming in such a situation.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 492
    IanB2 said:

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    The LDs could really use a nice defection from some suitable Tory, if one such still exists
    LDs have gone awful quiet since Bates v the PO. Is Sir ed going to be grilled by the enquiry?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,282
    edited May 13
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    It could work the other way of course, reducing complacency amongst the anti-Tory vote.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120
    IanB2 said:

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    The LDs could really use a nice defection from some suitable Tory, if one such still exists
    It would help them but unless its a West Country Tory who will stand again its a bit of a leap into the void at the moment.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,198
    TOPPING said:

    now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs.

    Curious choice. The GSX-R750R was a single year homologation special for AMA in 1986. It had a close ratio transmission, handmade fairings by old Japanese men and flat slide carbs. It was wonderful.


  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,747
    megasaur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    The LDs could really use a nice defection from some suitable Tory, if one such still exists
    LDs have gone awful quiet since Bates v the PO. Is Sir ed going to be grilled by the enquiry?
    Yes. Currently scheduled to appear on 18 July (along with Pat McFadden MP)
    https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/phase-5-and-6-timetable
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,544

    Nigelb said:

    I hadn't realised Chris Bryant's melanoma was so late stage.
    Without targeted immunotherapy, he'd probably be dead by now.

    Some have asked what my mole looked like in 2019. Here it is, and after surgery. Five years later it’s come back in my right lung, but it’s been cut out and I’m now cancer free.* Immunotherapy should keep it that way. Let’s beat skin cancer. ⁩
    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1789920042307494199

    (* In remission; hopefully for a long, long time.
    I'm not sure you're ever "cancer free".)

    The last hit is an interesting question. I was in molecular remission by December 2012, so am now 11+ years in remission and so believe myself cured. But there is always a chance of relapse. Certainly life insurance is way more expensive for me...
    It's possibly a question of semantics as much as science ?
    There's an awful lot we still don't know.

    Your and @megasaur 's accounts are incredibly encouraging examples of what's possible these days, though.

    I've a friend with two different late stage lymphomas who wouldn't be alive without very recently approved targeted therapies, and who now has the possibility of a second BMT this year which might put him into full remission.

    Late stage metastasised melanoma is still a pretty tough one.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,611

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    What is the plan? The only one I can detect is the plan to make us believe they have a plan by constantly saying they have.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,842
    @RMCunliffe
    Did anyone else just get this email, ostensibly from CCHQ, which has CCd rather then BCCd its recipients and thus shared hundreds of personal email addresses?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,665
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    It's quite something when a Tory defection to Labour is classified as Labour woe!

    On that - and there are of course also issues for Labour - it maybe would have made more sense, if Elphicke was willing (she may not have been) for her simply to have defected to independent, resigned the whip, stuck it to Sunak and maybe shared a few warm words about how she would probably vote Labour to solve the housing crisis and note that Starmer has a better* small boats plan. But maybe that wouldn't have been the big story both she and Starmer may have desired.

    *evidence needed!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs.

    Curious choice. The GSX-R750R was a single year homologation special for AMA in 1986. It had a close ratio transmission, handmade fairings by old Japanese men and flat slide carbs. It was wonderful.


    I don't believe David Astor is seen on anything else as he hits the twisties around Chipping Norton.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,133

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    CCHQ - “No Rishi, please stay with us. Don’t join the red team, even if they are promising to keep Tory policies.”
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    What is the plan? The only one I can detect is the plan to make us believe they have a plan by constantly saying they have.
    Look in the eyes, not around the eyes, in the eyes. Etc.
    It's whatever the observer wants it to be. At least that's their hope.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,282
    Entry on the Graun live politics blog made me smile:

    I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is to small to correct).
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,842

    CCHQ - “No Rishi, please stay with us. Don’t join the red team, even if they are promising to keep Tory policies.”

    Well, that is Richi's only chance of being in Government for the next 5 years...
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,133
    Lennon said:

    megasaur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Morning all. Curious admission by the blue team that one of their ex ministers is 'in defection talks' - I'm trying to decide if this admission is because they've already spiked it, or hope the cleansing light of 'we know' will spike it. Of course its also possible they are so shit that they are just admitting the rats are queued by the exit talking to differently coloured rats about the world outside and there's diddly they can do.
    In other news, with Rishi setting out the challenges ahead I'm going to rather bravely predict he will suggest its imperative we stick with the plan. Would be fun if he ends with 'and thats why, after this speech, quick dump and a shave and I'm off to the palace. Strap in'

    The LDs could really use a nice defection from some suitable Tory, if one such still exists
    LDs have gone awful quiet since Bates v the PO. Is Sir ed going to be grilled by the enquiry?
    Yes. Currently scheduled to appear on 18 July (along with Pat McFadden MP)
    https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/phase-5-and-6-timetable
    Sounds like a good day for Rishi to have the election! Or the 25 July to capitalise on the fallout.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 13
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,689

    Entry on the Graun live politics blog made me smile:

    I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is to small to correct).

    Oh, please sir, please sir!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120
    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    It's quite something when a Tory defection to Labour is classified as Labour woe!

    On that - and there are of course also issues for Labour - it maybe would have made more sense, if Elphicke was willing (she may not have been) for her simply to have defected to independent, resigned the whip, stuck it to Sunak and maybe shared a few warm words about how she would probably vote Labour to solve the housing crisis and note that Starmer has a better* small boats plan. But maybe that wouldn't have been the big story both she and Starmer may have desired.

    *evidence needed!
    There is little doubt it went down badly with Labour members in general, so in terns of negative vs positive, as a stunt will it draw in more voters than it drives away? Remains to be seen but feels utterly unnecessary and given 'no love for Labour' polling tidbits a stupid risk to take.
    I don't recall any defection ever being so badly received.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,058

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,198
    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    It's quite something when a Tory defection to Labour is classified as Labour woe!

    On that - and there are of course also issues for Labour - it maybe would have made more sense, if Elphicke was willing (she may not have been) for her simply to have defected to independent, resigned the whip, stuck it to Sunak and maybe shared a few warm words about how she would probably vote Labour to solve the housing crisis and note that Starmer has a better* small boats plan. But maybe that wouldn't have been the big story both she and Starmer may have desired.

    *evidence needed!
    Starmer, and the winged monkeys that advise him, knew exactly what they were doing with the Lady Macbeth of the south coast. It wounds and humiliates Big Rish and that's the most important thing at this stage. All else is frippery. Yes, she is basically one of the worst people ever to draw breath but she's going to the PLP not doing something actually worthy and important like joining the cast of Hamilton.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,276
    Dura_Ace said:

    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    It's quite something when a Tory defection to Labour is classified as Labour woe!

    On that - and there are of course also issues for Labour - it maybe would have made more sense, if Elphicke was willing (she may not have been) for her simply to have defected to independent, resigned the whip, stuck it to Sunak and maybe shared a few warm words about how she would probably vote Labour to solve the housing crisis and note that Starmer has a better* small boats plan. But maybe that wouldn't have been the big story both she and Starmer may have desired.

    *evidence needed!
    Starmer, and the winged monkeys that advise him, knew exactly what they were doing with the Lady Macbeth of the south coast. It wounds and humiliates Big Rish and that's the most important thing at this stage. All else is frippery. Yes, she is basically one of the worst people ever to draw breath but she's going to the PLP not doing something actually worthy and important like joining the cast of Hamilton.
    I'd say the louder the Labour bleating the more it helps Starmer: it will help convince floating voters and soft-Tories he's different. So they're playing into his hands.

    Personally, I find his cosplay almost as awkward as be does- but if people really do want to believe he's not a typical North London Left-Lib, albeit with an ambitious establishment twist, then they can knock themselves out.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,162
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Stuart Dickinson was unbanned long ago, after being sin binned for repeatedly going against site policy.

    Ishmael is with us. Under different name.

    IIRC no other “Scottish” posters are banned.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    So. Onto the major event of the week.

    Usyk: heavy cruiserweight rather than proper heavyweight hence light on his feet (!) but no knockout power. Will likely dance around Fury for the first few rounds to see if Fury can hurt him (he probably can but himself is not a puncher) and try to land some body shots and then in the later rounds, if fitness comes into it, he will try to land the kind of shots he is known for (AJ, Dubois) racking up the points.

    Fury: will be trying to throw Usyk round like a rag doll, leaning, smothering him, manhandling him and trying to drain Usyk's energy just keeping him off. Then will look for a decent shot or three to impress the judges, perhaps he looks to put Usyk down. Nothing out of the camps which is unusual which might mean he is training seriously. Ngannou's Fury gets beat "easily".

    So with bf calling it just about even but favouring Fury (2.08 vs 2.14, which I put down to the home crowd) it's anyone's fight and should be fascinating and worth the £25 even though the undercard isn't mesmerising - I like the Opetaia Breidis fight.

    So my call? Usyk. Not just because I like him (everyone likes him) and am meh towards TF but because Fury has always been called "the boxer" and Usyk can outbox him. If he has enough energy left having been leant on for eight straight rounds.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,012

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
    He’s a non techie. Things that you (and I) do casually…

    On the weekend, I was rowing. Someone asked about the custom foot stretcher I built. Simple stuff really. But I was talking to someone for whom changing a fuse was an adventure.
    A lot of people not having a vague understanding of how things work is a bit of a societal problem. Maybe not as bad as a lot of people not being able to cook, but still a problem.

    I despair when I have to go to the council tip. The waste is phenomenal.

    I might be tempted to volunteer at one of these repair club things if I manage to kick the day job although you still have to get past the 'throwaway' mentality to get people to even try and get things fixed.

    Ultra-cheap manufacturing has its downsides. Even if we manage to get energy decarbonised we really do need to stop wasting sh*t.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,478
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    And on the other hand, we have posters who say that if a women doesn't want to get abused by the 'talent' in the movie industry, they should just go and work as hairdressers.

    I'm sure you'd also call on a poster so sick as to condone sexual abuse to get banned as well? ;)
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,691
    DavidL said:

    O/T I see the Met Office long range forecast may be simply summarised as "we don't have a f*cking clue"...

    Monday 27 May - Monday 10 Jun
    Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.

    This is indeed the power of AI writ large. Tomorrow's weather will be similar to today's weather with some minor variations. Our assimilation is inevitable.
    Until fairly recently forecasting that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's was as good as or better than actual forecasts. One of the bigger issues we have now is that apps appear to be giving really precise forecasts for locations and times, when in reality they are simply outputting unmodified weather model data. The last public puts far too much credence on them, particularly beyond saying 48-72 hours.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 8,120
    It's the no election lectern. Booooooo
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,627

    Taz said:

    Lets put it like this. I'm paying the Liz Truss Tax on my mortgage. My local MP was a massive supporter of Liz Truss. So its his fault. I will be sure to remind him of that, and ask how many people are paying the LTT on their mortgage thanks to our MP.

    Have you anyone else you would like to blame?
    Liz Truss Tax !!!!!

    I guess Liz Truss is also responsible for rising interest rates and mortgage costs in all developed economies too.

    We are reverting back to where interest rates should be longer term. Good. As someone else says, money has to have value and for savers, like myself, I am quite happy with interest rates where they are.

    You follow the same "logic" then savers owe Liz Truss a debt of gratitude.
    It’s a curious argument you make. Deliberate cognitive disconnection between events, logic and reason to score political points for a party you don’t support.

    Out of interest, which other country had the same economic Lizaster as we did at the same time to the same extent?
    What is the connection that you're seeking to establish between the mini-budget and the Bank of England's decision to increase interest rates. I'd genuinely like to hear you explain it.
    Hilarious. Truss fucked the economy which forced the BofE to significantly raise interest rates ahead of plan:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-refuses-to-apologise-for-sparking-mortgage-rate-rise-but-admits-one-failing-as-pm-13119635

    Even the Torygraph says it's her fault: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/mortgages/time-switch-mortgage-high-interest-rate-liz-truss-era/
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,945
    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    And on the other hand, we have posters who say that if a women doesn't want to get abused by the 'talent' in the movie industry, they should just go and work as hairdressers.

    I'm sure you'd also call on a poster so sick as to condone sexual abuse to get banned as well? ;)
    Careful now. Repeating a poster’s past posted comments is stalking. According to some posters…
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    edited May 13

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,691

    Entry on the Graun live politics blog made me smile:

    I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is to small to correct).

    Maybe it's a trap?
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    "Gazans"? "Theo-fascist statelet"? Remind me how most Palestinian families in Gaza got there, and also which side has bombed the churches.

    You're throwing shit at Palestinians for getting killed. Apparently even when they get killed it's because they're so sick and Jew-haty that they want to be killed.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,945
    edited May 13
    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    Also horrific, but at least the West, as far as I'm aware, isn't providing the main protagonists of the other conflicts with moral and material support as they go about their slaughter. So not the shame.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,611
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    I have noticed a strong overlap between (i) people who talk disparagingly about Palestinians and (ii) people who are quick to ascribe criticism of Israel/Israelis to antisemitism.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,282
    edited May 13
    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    China vs the USA? Did WW3 break out last night and no one let me know?
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 13

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Btw if I was allowed to comment freely, I could tell you that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED at 5pm which is REDACTED REDACTED maybe world changing by itself because REDACTED

    But I’m not so I can’t

    If you want to talk about AI freely, then you can open up a message, invite people to join, then talk to your heart's content. I for one would like to join, and so would many others, both pro and con. I call this "backstage" and did so frequently during my two-year exile. MoonRabbit calls it "the toilets", but it's the same thing.

    I am interested in AI and though I assume you know as much about it as you do modesty, you can provide many interesting sources and attract others pro and con, who can bring more in their wake. That may be a productive way forward for you.
    Nah, I’ve found my tribe on Reddit. I’ve actually interacted with REDACTED - in person. They’re all on there, discussing it - I’ve had private messages on reddit from REDACTED when the subject gets TOO explosive

    If you want my thoughts (whether you rate them or not) go there. I won’t break the rules here
    Then stop bleating on about it, even in your current meta way. You are like the guy who said look we've got this thing called "the wheel" it's going to change your lives and no one really cared and then the wheel came along and everyone said ok cool thanks for that much appreciated now we can now build chariots and cars and GSX-R750Rs. Big deal. You were an early-appreciater (I would say adopter but you couldn't build one to save your life, I'm guessing).
    Challenge for @Leon

    Download, setup and run on your own computer an LLM. Write the story up for publication.
    Come on, that's literally a 5 minute job. 4 minutes of which is waiting for the download to finish.
    He’s a non techie. Things that you (and I) do casually…

    On the weekend, I was rowing. Someone asked about the custom foot stretcher I built. Simple stuff really. But I was talking to someone for whom changing a fuse was an adventure.
    A lot of people not having a vague understanding of how things work is a bit of a societal problem. Maybe not as bad as a lot of people not being able to cook, but still a problem.

    I despair when I have to go to the council tip. The waste is phenomenal.

    I might be tempted to volunteer at one of these repair club things if I manage to kick the day job although you still have to get past the 'throwaway' mentality to get people to even try and get things fixed.

    Ultra-cheap manufacturing has its downsides. Even if we manage to get energy decarbonised we really do need to stop wasting sh*t.
    There’s a phenomenon of being proud of “not understanding”.

    Bit like the smirk-and-giggle about maths by some reporters and politicians.
    For some poor male bastards, though, using tools and simple "A to B" logic is all they know about and they think it's superior to dreaming. The case builds for putting DMT in the boys' clubs' water supply.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,950
    "The UK is experiencing an epidemic of suicides and breakdowns among medics, with one doctor dying by suicide every three weeks, according to the charity Doctors in Distress. More than 2,000 GPs seek help for anxiety, depression and other mental illnesses every year.

    Whoever wins the next general election will need to address the growing crisis, which may involve some radical changes in the way primary care operates or a major reallocation of NHS funds."

    "Patients are seeing GPs more frequently for other reasons, too: in 1991 a patient would see their GP 3.5 times per year on average, now it is 7.5 times per year."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/wellbeing/mental-health/gp-suicides-crisis-ellen-welch-book/
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,523

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    And on the other hand, we have posters who say that if a women doesn't want to get abused by the 'talent' in the movie industry, they should just go and work as hairdressers.

    I'm sure you'd also call on a poster so sick as to condone sexual abuse to get banned as well? ;)
    Careful now. Repeating a poster’s past posted comments is stalking. According to some posters…
    Who would that be, and do you have some examples?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    edited May 13

    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    Also horrific, but at least the West, as far as I'm aware, isn't providing the main protagonists of the other conflicts with moral and material support as they go about their slaughter. So not the shame.
    I mean neither you nor I have the time to find out just how much British aid is going into these places and for what ends. I'm kind of a betting man so I would say: some and for uses we might disagree with.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,133
    edited May 13

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    And on the other hand, we have posters who say that if a women doesn't want to get abused by the 'talent' in the movie industry, they should just go and work as hairdressers.

    I'm sure you'd also call on a poster so sick as to condone sexual abuse to get banned as well? ;)
    Careful now. Repeating a poster’s past posted comments is stalking. According to some posters…
    Who would that be, and do you have some examples?
    Yes, I have an example.

    If I were to give it, that would be stalking….

    😜
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678



    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    China vs the USA? Did WW3 break out last night and no one let me know?
    Yep I looked at those and thought are you sure. But it's in wiki so it must be true.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,842
    @KevinASchofield

    Common sense minister Esther McVey: "I would say that Rishi Sunak is an intellectual giant."
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,198

    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    Also horrific, but at least the West, as far as I'm aware, isn't providing the main protagonists of the other conflicts with moral and material support as they go about their slaughter. So not the shame.
    They are in Ukraine although I am sure an Ultra will be along shortly to provide context and contrast.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,058
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    I read that the only way to understand the culture of a place was to visit it and it took the sensitivity as someone such as yourself who had the experience to do that. I think I read it in one of your travelogue posts last week.

    Have you ever been to Gaza and do you know any Gazans?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,162
    edited May 13
    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    "Gazans"? "Theo-fascist statelet"? Remind me how most Palestinian families in Gaza got there, and also which side has bombed the churches.

    You're throwing shit at Palestinians for getting killed. Apparently even when they get killed it's because they're so sick and Jew-haty that they want to be killed.
    Are you denying Gaza is a “theo-fascist statelet”? Because it really is. They throw gays off buildings dontchaknow

    I’ve not said a word about Israel. But here’s a few words: Israel’s behaviour is barbaric, demonic even. I’ve discussed before that they seem so traumatised by the Holocaust they are intent on re-enacting one; like abused children who reiterate that abuse in later life

    But radical Islam has not done a lot to win friends in the last 40 years so I have almost zero sympathy for anyone associated with it

    Quite frankly I’m bored and sickened by the whole thing and I’m tired of it hijacking global politics taking attention away from more deserving communities and problems

    Let them fight to the death and be done with it
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,611

    Dura_Ace said:

    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course a decision whether to cut interest rates is now made by the Bank of England not the Chancellor anyway.

    However yes any fall in interest rates would need to see bigger gains for the Conservatives amongst middle aged mortgage holders than any losses amongst pensioner savers

    No fall if your mortgage is being renewed from 5-10 years ago: rather, a huge increase. Which is most people renewing. Which is why it's so stupid to think the fall will help with voting.
    Yes and no...

    The end of fixed rate deals won't be a surprise for most. The main tranches of my mortgage renew in 2025 and 2026, but I'm obviously very aware of the current interest rate environment and monitoring what happens to them ahead of the actual renewal. I assume most borrowers with a basic level of financial curiosity are going to be watching rates in the same way and already bracing for the change when they come off their current deal. So if instead of going up to 5% they now go up to 4.5% they might see that as a relative win.
    Quite, but the originjal increase was also very much a recent Conservative achievement.
    Ah, but that's the genius of the Tory campaign pitch: Only a Conservative government can fix the damage we've caused. Don't let Labour ruin it!
    And, whisper it, that will probably work with a few voters.

    I don't wish to come over all MoonRabbit when the polls are so dire for the Tories, but have you noticed the subtle but real shift in sentiment in the right wing press since the locals? They are now in campaign mode. That means:

    - Much more blanket coverage of Labour "woes" like Rayner and the Elphicke defection
    - Going softly softly on government policy
    - Boosting messages from both Sunak and "Tory sources" who claim the government is feeling more confident

    Not just the print media either - see Kuenssberg over the last few days. Definitely in campaign mode now.

    Several months of this cannot fail to dent confidence in Labour among swing voters. Whether it wins back people to the conservative fold is another matter, but it's possible it will help them a bit.
    It's quite something when a Tory defection to Labour is classified as Labour woe!

    On that - and there are of course also issues for Labour - it maybe would have made more sense, if Elphicke was willing (she may not have been) for her simply to have defected to independent, resigned the whip, stuck it to Sunak and maybe shared a few warm words about how she would probably vote Labour to solve the housing crisis and note that Starmer has a better* small boats plan. But maybe that wouldn't have been the big story both she and Starmer may have desired.

    *evidence needed!
    Starmer, and the winged monkeys that advise him, knew exactly what they were doing with the Lady Macbeth of the south coast. It wounds and humiliates Big Rish and that's the most important thing at this stage. All else is frippery. Yes, she is basically one of the worst people ever to draw breath but she's going to the PLP not doing something actually worthy and important like joining the cast of Hamilton.
    I'd say the louder the Labour bleating the more it helps Starmer: it will help convince floating voters and soft-Tories he's different. So they're playing into his hands.

    Personally, I find his cosplay almost as awkward as be does- but if people really do want to believe he's not a typical North London Left-Lib, albeit with an ambitious establishment twist, then they can knock themselves out.
    Well I'm hoping you're correct - that at heart he IS a typical North London Left-Lib.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,857
    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    A reminder that even the best of our media are not doing a remotely balanced job in covering, reporting and commenting on the world. Selecting one great issue at a time is not what the BBC etc is for.

    And, take Sudan for example, when it gets coverage it more or less misses out entirely reports on what military action is taking place, where, who is winning and losing, who is allied with which countries, who is arming them and with what, and what are the future intentions of the parties.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,665

    "The UK is experiencing an epidemic of suicides and breakdowns among medics, with one doctor dying by suicide every three weeks, according to the charity Doctors in Distress. More than 2,000 GPs seek help for anxiety, depression and other mental illnesses every year.

    Whoever wins the next general election will need to address the growing crisis, which may involve some radical changes in the way primary care operates or a major reallocation of NHS funds."

    "Patients are seeing GPs more frequently for other reasons, too: in 1991 a patient would see their GP 3.5 times per year on average, now it is 7.5 times per year."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/wellbeing/mental-health/gp-suicides-crisis-ellen-welch-book/

    Be very interesting to see that last stat unravelled - i.e. median too and split by age group. Is this just a consequence of an ageing (and more medicated) population? Or a minority of (very) frequent flyers? Or is your median 40 year old, for example, seeing the GP more?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    algarkirk said:

    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    A reminder that even the best of our media are not doing a remotely balanced job in covering, reporting and commenting on the world. Selecting one great issue at a time is not what the BBC etc is for.

    And, take Sudan for example, when it gets coverage it more or less misses out entirely reports on what military action is taking place, where, who is winning and losing, who is allied with which countries, who is arming them and with what, and what are the future intentions of the parties.
    *puts hand up*

    Yep. No fucking clue.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    edited May 13
    Rishi is a titan what's the problem
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,162
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    I read that the only way to understand the culture of a place was to visit it and it took the sensitivity as someone such as yourself who had the experience to do that. I think I read it in one of your travelogue posts last week.

    Have you ever been to Gaza and do you know any Gazans?
    I know some Gazans and I’ve been to the Israeli side of the strip. I’ve traveled extensively in the West Bank staying with Palestinians and talking with them

    I am also very aware of the fascist wing of Israeli politics that regards Palestinians as subhumans. They are in Netanyahu’s government. They are repulsive

    But then Palestinians can be equally repulsive. You’ll be talking to the sweetest guy in Nablus and feeling great sympathy then suddenly he says “I hate Jews, we have to kill them all” and you recoil. Both sides have grotesque aspects

    As I say maybe the only solution is combat a l’outrance
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,276
    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    "Gazans"? "Theo-fascist statelet"? Remind me how most Palestinian families in Gaza got there, and also which side has bombed the churches.

    You're throwing shit at Palestinians for getting killed. Apparently even when they get killed it's because they're so sick and Jew-haty that they want to be killed.
    Are you denying Gaza is a “theo-fascist statelet”? Because it really is. They throw gays off buildings dontchaknow

    I’ve not said a word about Israel. But here’s a few words: Israel’s behaviour is barbaric, demonic even. I’ve discussed before that they seem so traumatised by the Holocaust they are intent on re-enacting one; like abused children who reiterate that abuse in later life

    But radical Islam has not done a lot to win friends in the last 40 years so I have almost zero sympathy for anyone associated with it

    Quite frankly I’m bored and sickened by the whole thing and I’m tired of it hijacking global politics taking attention away from more deserving communities and problems

    Let them fight to the death and be done with it
    It's all immensely boring. I might prefer Israel because they're industrious, developed, Westernised and more liberal - we all know Palestine would be like another Lebanon in the counterfactual - and they run it better but it's really fucking boring and has been since at least the 1930s.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,728
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    Also horrific, but at least the West, as far as I'm aware, isn't providing the main protagonists of the other conflicts with moral and material support as they go about their slaughter. So not the shame.
    I mean neither you nor I have the time to find out just how much British aid is going into these places and for what ends. I'm kind of a betting man so I would say: some and for uses we might disagree with.
    Do you mean British aid going to Israel - and for uses we might not agree with - or to Gaza - and for uses we might not agree with?
    I wouldn't be entirely surprised if analysis showed that Britain - and indeed other western states - are largely funding both sides efforts to destroy each other. (Not, I would say, out of conspiracy: more out of there being multiple different views within western democracies which don't always check in with each other before acting.)
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,945
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just read through the last thread. Incredible the number of fine posters on PB who have been banned yet the likes of Livermore who would probably be banned from most Nazi sites just sail on spreading their ignorant poison

    Calling for other posters to be banned is not an engaging attribute imo.

    As for Blanche, I disagree with their take on Gaza and on the benefits system but it hardly struck me as something that 'would probably be banned from most Nazi sites'.

    Get a grip Roger.
    What is this list of banned posters?

    A number of people have left, but the list of banned is pretty small.
    Stuart ....Ishmael....and several other Scottish posters.

    And in their place we have posters like this;

    "Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment? "

    Even Braverman might think twice before posting this fascistic drivel. It's ugly and ill informed. My question was not to get Livermore banned but to wonder what these other posters could have written that was considered worse?
    Er, that’s a totally fair question. Let’s go through it

    1. Do some Palestinians WANT their sons to be martyrs? Yes, absolutely. We have tons of evidence of this. Young Gazans grow up in a theo-fascist statelet which inculcates the glory of martyrdom into them. Their parents go along with it, some embrace it (cf trans….)

    2. If they want their kids to be martyred, why is that? there are two obvious reasons

    2a they think killing Jews in Israel is a noble and holy cause; they want Jews in Israel dead

    2b (less likely but plausible, perhaps in combination with the above) they believe it will advance the family as a whole. Gain them social status. This is hardly unknown - families sacrifice sons in martial societies in exchange for esteem and position

    There. Sorted for you. @BlancheLivermore was making an entirely rational if polemical point
    I read that the only way to understand the culture of a place was to visit it and it took the sensitivity as someone such as yourself who had the experience to do that. I think I read it in one of your travelogue posts last week.

    Have you ever been to Gaza and do you know any Gazans?
    I know some Gazans and I’ve been to the Israeli side of the strip. I’ve traveled extensively in the West Bank staying with Palestinians and talking with them

    I am also very aware of the fascist wing of Israeli politics that regards Palestinians as subhumans. They are in Netanyahu’s government. They are repulsive

    But then Palestinians can be equally repulsive. You’ll be talking to the sweetest guy in Nablus and feeling great sympathy then suddenly he says “I hate Jews, we have to kill them all” and you recoil. Both sides have grotesque aspects

    As I say maybe the only solution is combat a l’outrance
    With clubs.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    Selebian said:

    "The UK is experiencing an epidemic of suicides and breakdowns among medics, with one doctor dying by suicide every three weeks, according to the charity Doctors in Distress. More than 2,000 GPs seek help for anxiety, depression and other mental illnesses every year.

    Whoever wins the next general election will need to address the growing crisis, which may involve some radical changes in the way primary care operates or a major reallocation of NHS funds."

    "Patients are seeing GPs more frequently for other reasons, too: in 1991 a patient would see their GP 3.5 times per year on average, now it is 7.5 times per year."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/wellbeing/mental-health/gp-suicides-crisis-ellen-welch-book/

    Be very interesting to see that last stat unravelled - i.e. median too and split by age group. Is this just a consequence of an ageing (and more medicated) population? Or a minority of (very) frequent flyers? Or is your median 40 year old, for example, seeing the GP more?
    7.5x seeing a GP per year seems very high. I last went to the GP...thinks...five months ago. So if I'm bobbing around 1-ish/year that means someone out there is at 13/14x going to see their GP. Seems crazy.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Donkeys said:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/13/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-reinvades-north-gaza-as-people-flee-south?update=2896767

    "* Israeli forces have continued to attack Jabalia refugee camp, and intensified attacks on Gaza City

    * Israeli forces have fired on ambulances trying to reach the wounded as Israeli air strikes pound crowded residential areas within the refugee camp Al Jazeera Arabic reports.

    * Medical staff at the Kuwaiti Hospital in Rafah have received an evacuation order from Israeli forces, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum reports.

    * Gaza’s Health Ministry says without fuel for hospital generators, the health system across Gaza could collapse in “a few hours”.
    "

    There will be death marches from all parts of Gaza to the Netzarim corridor unless something is done.

    In their evacuation orders, sometimes the occupiers are not even bothering to designate any supposedly safe place for people to flee to. As the UNRWA has clearly stated, for many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are being forcibly displaced there is no safe place.

    It's utterly horrific, and I'm deeply ashamed that out government and the West in general is supporting this action.
    Any suffering is dreadful. What's your take on these as you are evidently a geopolitically-aware kind of guy.


    Also horrific, but at least the West, as far as I'm aware, isn't providing the main protagonists of the other conflicts with moral and material support as they go about their slaughter. So not the shame.
    I mean neither you nor I have the time to find out just how much British aid is going into these places and for what ends. I'm kind of a betting man so I would say: some and for uses we might disagree with.
    Do you mean British aid going to Israel - and for uses we might not agree with - or to Gaza - and for uses we might not agree with?
    I wouldn't be entirely surprised if analysis showed that Britain - and indeed other western states - are largely funding both sides efforts to destroy each other. (Not, I would say, out of conspiracy: more out of there being multiple different views within western democracies which don't always check in with each other before acting.)
    I have no doubt. Plus is British aid to, say, Saudi, which ends up distributed around the region or the world by Saudi counted as British aid. No idea.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    I'm having a beer at Sebastopol

    It does worry me a little that it might be owned by @Roger's rich Russian neighbours, remember the ones who he rushed to sympathise with when Russia brutally invaded Ukraine?


Sign In or Register to comment.