The new Ukrainian CinC needs to get a grip while he can still blame Zaluzhny for everything. There are brigade level formations who are in business for themselves and don't particularly care what the General Staff thinks. Units will 'defect' from one brigade to another based on bribery and patronage and you've got battalion and smaller units who are negotiating directly with the Russians.
Yes comrade, whatever you say.
I daresay you got this 'insight' from licking the fetid dribblings coming off Russian Telegram?
Why do you have this pathological fear of hearing possibly accurate or insightful information about Ukraine. What's the Panglossian equivalent for a country at war.
Because @Dura_Ace appears to give duff gen at tines, e.g. his recent comment that 1,000 F16's were in store at AMARC.
Now, if I'm wrong and there are 1,000 stored, or even near that number, fair enough. But I haven't found anything to back it up (research that led me to some fascinating corners of t'Internet as well.)
I don't mind people giving a pro-Russian, or Ukraine-sceptic viewpoint. But it would be nice if it was true, or at least sourced.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
Interesting piece in the Observer this morning from a Tel Aviv based analyst and pollster. There seems to be increasing war weariness in Israel.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
Interesting piece in the Observer this morning from a Tel Aviv based analyst and pollster. There seems to be increasing war weariness in Israel.
Good morning everyne, even slugabeds, or people on holiday drinking wine for breakfast.
Marhaba!
Sod .
I'm sitting here looking at my solar panels that need a jet wash later, so I've got to sort out the 6m extendi-right-angle-device for the jetwasher so that my kind friend who has offered to go on next-door's carport roof to do it can be given the tool to do the job.
First time we’ve been away anywhere for months, just a local hotel with a good all-inclusive promotion now that we’re out of season. Place is busy though, with a combination of local staycationers and tourists, and the weather is still just about bearable outside, at least in the shade, 37ºC and 33% humidity at 13:00.
Buying (or renting) the right tool for the job always pays dividends in the end.
37C is tolerable? Eeek. I like heat but that’s pushing it
Did you see Janan Ganesh’s latest column in the FT? He reckons people that casually dismiss Dubai as boring are idiots. He says it is intrinsically interesting. And he’s right. It’s still not for me, but it is fascinating in a weird way, and also illustrative
It’s 24C here on the south coast of the Gargano, Puglia. Might peak around 26C with cloudless skies then cool to 15C late at night. This is it. This is my perfect weather. You can still easily walk in it - but you can also sunbathe and swim (in a heated pool).
In the evenings you can happily sit outside but maybe with a very light sweater or casual puffer gilet. In the night you don’t need aircon
And endless endless sunshine. All day maximum sunshine
By July it will be insufferably hot here
Stayed at an upmarket gastropub near Leominster on the way back from a week in NW Wales. Lovely place, glorious sunshine, 20 degrees during the day. They had four beautifully equipped "lodges" in the grounds. However, planning had insisted they each had a black roof. So they had installed black bitumen tiles. These things suck in heat. As a result, even in early May, they were still unbearably hot to sleep in at four in the morning.
We had exactly the same issue and had to install air-con.
(BTW, travelled on a B-road between Machynlleth out through Forge and on to LLanidloes. It might be the single most scenic road I have travelled in Britain. Outstanding scenery. At least, on a clear day when you can see it..)
The lodges would have better equipped with solar panels.
Yes, but would have needed non-standard narrow triangular ones. Do they make them?
No idea, but suspect there’s a firm in China who would give it a go! Or, possibly as it’s not too far from Machynlleth, there’s a local craftsman. Agree with you about some of the roads round there. Have you tried the Bwlch y Croes road? Nothing particular on one side but as you come up to the top the landscape opens up dramatically.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
Interesting piece in the Observer this morning from a Tel Aviv based analyst and pollster. There seems to be increasing war weariness in Israel.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
I am old enough to remember the 60s and70s when governments changed frequently, not least because we did not have a particularly clear idea of where we should be going. Since then it has taken some major cock ups or sheer exhaustion to remove a sitting government.
You may be right that we are heading into another period of uncertainty and increased volatility but the last 40 years have pointed in the other direction. If Labour get a majority over 150 it will be almost impossible for the Tories to remove them in a single swipe, just like Cameron failed to do in 2010, requiring the coalition.
Why?
Indeed. You could have made this argument almost word for word after 2019.
The words of Jim Callaghan still resonate down the decades:
"There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs. Thatcher."
And Rishi is already rich and strange, which snookers him
Good morning everyne, even slugabeds, or people on holiday drinking wine for breakfast.
Marhaba!
Sod .
I'm sitting here looking at my solar panels that need a jet wash later, so I've got to sort out the 6m extendi-right-angle-device for the jetwasher so that my kind friend who has offered to go on next-door's carport roof to do it can be given the tool to do the job.
First time we’ve been away anywhere for months, just a local hotel with a good all-inclusive promotion now that we’re out of season. Place is busy though, with a combination of local staycationers and tourists, and the weather is still just about bearable outside, at least in the shade, 37ºC and 33% humidity at 13:00.
Buying (or renting) the right tool for the job always pays dividends in the end.
37C is tolerable? Eeek. I like heat but that’s pushing it
Did you see Janan Ganesh’s latest column in the FT? He reckons people that casually dismiss Dubai as boring are idiots. He says it is intrinsically interesting. And he’s right. It’s still not for me, but it is fascinating in a weird way, and also illustrative
It’s 24C here on the south coast of the Gargano, Puglia. Might peak around 26C with cloudless skies then cool to 15C late at night. This is it. This is my perfect weather. You can still easily walk in it - but you can also sunbathe and swim (in a heated pool).
In the evenings you can happily sit outside but maybe with a very light sweater or casual puffer gilet. In the night you don’t need aircon
And endless endless sunshine. All day maximum sunshine
By July it will be insufferably hot here
I haven't been to Dubai but also don't get the appeal sufficiently to want to go.
It’s a nice place to find winter sun from the UK. Robert @rcs1000 had a holiday here once and raved about it, but he stayed in a very fancy hotel that had just opened, and now goes for a grand a night.
They put people to death for being gay.
Err, no they don’t. You’re at best confusing the UAE with Saudi Arabia or Qatar, very different places.
These things are all relative, but UAE and Israel are the most liberal places in the Middle East. I was sitting in a a beach bar with a drink at 11am today, watching women in bikinis walk past…
Dubai yes, but wander over to Sharjah and they will be less comfortable.
I have been to UAE a couple of times when my brother was there. Pleasant winter weather and the desert is beautiful, but I won't bother going again. Suits some people though with guaranteed sun and sterile blingy hotels. Just not my cup of tea.
I would like to see more of Oman though.
Dubai strikes me as someone airdropping the Trafford Centre into the Arabian desert. Everything is ersatz.
Agree on Oman, which strikes me as a fascinating place.
Yes, Oman has more interesting landscape and culture, with enough money to be prosperous but not enough for the excesses that we see in other petro-states. A pro-British regime, albeit far from democracy and the Ibadi strand of Islam that is more comfortable with the modern world than the Salfism of Saudi or much of the Gulf. Best in winter, but not near the top of my to do list.
When the MP for Dover and Deal was presented to Sir Keir as interested in defection, it is not hard to see why he and the tight group of aides he discussed it with reckoned that this was an offer too salivating to refuse. “ I’m completely fine with it,” says one of the non-squeamish members of the shadow cabinet. “We’ve got an election to win. The name of the game is beating the Tories. When an opportunity like this comes along, you can’t pass it up.” What they did not anticipate was the scale and the intensity of the backlash.
This might have been foreseen because Ms Elphicke has landed in Labour with more baggage than a luggage carousel at Heathrow during the school summer holidays. As for her politics, she once attacked Marcus Rashford for campaigning for free school meals, one of many reasons to doubt whether she has any genuine affinity with her new party.
The broader reason for the unease rippling through Labour’s ranks is that it feeds into the anxiety that there is no compromise with their party’s values that the leadership might not make in pursuit of what it sees as potential electoral advantage. Voters may have a general preference for broad-church parties, but they also tend to like them to come with sturdy walls and some pillars of principle.
What’s not settled, as we approach the election, is a consensus view about Sir Keir. It is still up for argument both within his party and among voters whether he is a firmly anchored leader of genuine conviction, the case made by his allies. Or is he, as enemies to both right and left contend, a ruthless opportunist who will say or do anything to get power? The willingness to clasp hands with someone with the history of Natalie Elphicke is much easier for his foes to explain than it is for his friends.
The next time, if there’s a next time, a Conservative MP of her ilk offers to come over to Labour, Sir Keir might be better advised to say thanks, but no thanks.
Doesn’t Luke 15:11-32 kinda apply?
The parable of the Lost Son.
That shows the lost son a) Leaving home b) Regretting that and repenting. c) Returning in regret.
I don't see Natalie Elphicke as a "lost son of Labour who has repented her reckless, dissolute ways and returned home".
It’s not quite the same, but the parable tells us that it is good to celebrate the one who was lost and has now found their way, over those who piously criticise.
Yes, I'd agree with that. The question is over "found their way", and not being naive. There seems to be an issue around the lobbying of Robert Buckland, for example - it was clear that her former party would tip a bucket of doodoo over her, Bad 'Al style, but was Sit Keir properly aware what was coming? That should guide his actions.
I think what I have said on PB in the past is that the proof of the pudding on conversions can only be over time, since like Elisabeth 1 we can't make windows into men's and women's souls.
Perhaps Matthew 10:16 applies "Be as wise as serpents, and as gentle as doves."
In the case of the lost son, for example, it might not be wise to put him in charge of managing his father's wealth for a few years.
My take on Sir Keir is probably that he deems any potential damage is less for him than the benefits of keeping the Conservatives in confusion and doubt, and he has a stop-loss of NE standing down at the next election.
I think his calculation is quite Machiavellian / cold blooded. After all, he's a lawyer !
Good morning
Trevor Phillips interviewing Jonathan Ashworth on Sky this morning said that if the Elphicke story is true then Starmer would need to withdraw the whip and Ashworth response was Elphicke has denied it
Phillips then turned to his panel of three discussing the mornings political interviews, and Andrew Marr said if it was the word of Buckland v Elphicke then he would take Buckland's position as he is one of the few respected conservative mps left
Scanning through the application the biggest issue appears to be that Kent County Council Highways department are as useless and contradictory as they have always been - when writing things down put all your objections in the first one and don't contradict yourself.
And highways are the people who will kill an application, so at the moment the issue is not with Dover, until the highways objections are resolved the application isn't going to get approved...
Side note - 1 of the complaints notes that the responsible planning officer has changed multiple times - not surprising because I suspect no planning officer can live on the wages Dover council pays when the private sector will pay twice as much..
Actually it was not the planning controversy but her trying to influence the legal process over her husband's trial
They did not discuss this issue
If Elphicke did something wrong, wasn't it incumbent on the Lord Chancellor to have acted and not to have covered it up? It makes you wonder what else has happened over the last few years that the government is also hiding from us.
She got a meeting with him under false pretences, tried to speak to him about the trial, he refused to do so and ended the meeting. No doubt he and others of her party would have thought even less of her poor judgment after that but what do you think Buckland should have done next?
I am really not seeing a coverup here. Nor, other than a general falling apart allegation, do I see the upside for Starmer on this one.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
Like Blair, PM Starmer would benefit from an economy significantly on the up. However, all of those who have supported him getting to be PM will have their hand out. And he will have to disappoint most.
And Labour has no answer to the small boats. Expect it to become an armada of bigger boats. What then?
I suspect ID cards are going to make a reappearance in the next parliament.
Three requirements for the database:
1) Accessible to the public so they can check and challenge any inaccuracies in their records;
2) Full record of who has accessed it so we can check who is looking at our info and challenge anyone who has done so for an improper purpose.
3) Criminal prosecutions for any breach of 2.
And two for the ID card:
1) Supersedes all other forms of ID including driving licences, DBS clearances and NI numbers;
2) Does not have to be carried at all times.
If those five criteria are met we can be reasonably confident that our rights are protected and Satan is wondering what the fuck to do with his new ice rink.
A) rather than doing a stupid merge of databases to create the ids, do it passport style. Proper applications, evidence. Even the passport database is full of bogus entries.
C) any attempt to create a universal government database using the is will be met by shoving a chainsaw up the arse of the proposer. Then switching it on. In low gear
D) using the ID code as the unique key for other databases is fine, on the other hand. And should be encouraged.
E) it should be possible for *anyone* to verify a card. Scenario - you show card. Smart phone via rfid (or other) takes the person checking to a web portal showing just your photo and name.
I generally agree with this, but just a note on verification: there are legitimate security concerns around that, especially if the ID is linked with clearances etc.
It's tricky because without easy verification there's no benefit in checking ID (see the uselessness of showing passports to polling staff who can't check them).
You also need to account for the fact that around 40% of the population will change their name at some point in their life, and just over 25% make regular use of multiple identities for a whole variety of reasons, most of which are entirely legitimate.
Maybe just handing out multiple ID cards would get round this (and people who need to protect their identity could have multiple disposable IDs), but it's just one aspect which could lead into a huge can of worms being opened up.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
Like Blair, PM Starmer would benefit from an economy significantly on the up. However, all of those who have supported him getting to be PM will have their hand out. And he will have to disappoint most.
And Labour has no answer to the small boats. Expect it to become an armada of bigger boats. What then?
I suspect ID cards are going to make a reappearance in the next parliament.
Britain does not have spare billions of pounds for a bureaucrats hobbyhorse.
We always have spare billions of pounds for bureaucrats' hobbyhorses.
The only hope the Tories have is that the public recoil in horror when they see how wooden and insincere Sir Keir is during the campaign. This clip from yesterday gives me some encouragement it could happen.
Have you ever met anyone in real life who is this unnatural? Reminds me of Theresa May at her most awkward
Good morning everyne, even slugabeds, or people on holiday drinking wine for breakfast.
Marhaba!
Sod .
I'm sitting here looking at my solar panels that need a jet wash later, so I've got to sort out the 6m extendi-right-angle-device for the jetwasher so that my kind friend who has offered to go on next-door's carport roof to do it can be given the tool to do the job.
First time we’ve been away anywhere for months, just a local hotel with a good all-inclusive promotion now that we’re out of season. Place is busy though, with a combination of local staycationers and tourists, and the weather is still just about bearable outside, at least in the shade, 37ºC and 33% humidity at 13:00.
Buying (or renting) the right tool for the job always pays dividends in the end.
37C is tolerable? Eeek. I like heat but that’s pushing it
Did you see Janan Ganesh’s latest column in the FT? He reckons people that casually dismiss Dubai as boring are idiots. He says it is intrinsically interesting. And he’s right. It’s still not for me, but it is fascinating in a weird way, and also illustrative
It’s 24C here on the south coast of the Gargano, Puglia. Might peak around 26C with cloudless skies then cool to 15C late at night. This is it. This is my perfect weather. You can still easily walk in it - but you can also sunbathe and swim (in a heated pool).
In the evenings you can happily sit outside but maybe with a very light sweater or casual puffer gilet. In the night you don’t need aircon
And endless endless sunshine. All day maximum sunshine
By July it will be insufferably hot here
I haven't been to Dubai but also don't get the appeal sufficiently to want to go.
It’s a nice place to find winter sun from the UK. Robert @rcs1000 had a holiday here once and raved about it, but he stayed in a very fancy hotel that had just opened, and now goes for a grand a night.
They put people to death for being gay.
Err, no they don’t. You’re at best confusing the UAE with Saudi Arabia or Qatar, very different places.
These things are all relative, but UAE and Israel are the most liberal places in the Middle East. I was sitting in a a beach bar with a drink at 11am today, watching women in bikinis walk past…
Dubai yes, but wander over to Sharjah and they will be less comfortable.
I have been to UAE a couple of times when my brother was there. Pleasant winter weather and the desert is beautiful, but I won't bother going again. Suits some people though with guaranteed sun and sterile blingy hotels. Just not my cup of tea.
I would like to see more of Oman though.
Oman is lovely, definitely worth exploring. The old town of Muscat is wonderful, centuries of history there, there’s plenty of nothing desert and mountains with a few nice resorts dotted around, and we’re hoping to get to Salalah this year for a getaway from the city hubbub. Driving there would be awesome, but it’s a long way and the roads are unmade.
When the MP for Dover and Deal was presented to Sir Keir as interested in defection, it is not hard to see why he and the tight group of aides he discussed it with reckoned that this was an offer too salivating to refuse. “ I’m completely fine with it,” says one of the non-squeamish members of the shadow cabinet. “We’ve got an election to win. The name of the game is beating the Tories. When an opportunity like this comes along, you can’t pass it up.” What they did not anticipate was the scale and the intensity of the backlash.
This might have been foreseen because Ms Elphicke has landed in Labour with more baggage than a luggage carousel at Heathrow during the school summer holidays. As for her politics, she once attacked Marcus Rashford for campaigning for free school meals, one of many reasons to doubt whether she has any genuine affinity with her new party.
The broader reason for the unease rippling through Labour’s ranks is that it feeds into the anxiety that there is no compromise with their party’s values that the leadership might not make in pursuit of what it sees as potential electoral advantage. Voters may have a general preference for broad-church parties, but they also tend to like them to come with sturdy walls and some pillars of principle.
What’s not settled, as we approach the election, is a consensus view about Sir Keir. It is still up for argument both within his party and among voters whether he is a firmly anchored leader of genuine conviction, the case made by his allies. Or is he, as enemies to both right and left contend, a ruthless opportunist who will say or do anything to get power? The willingness to clasp hands with someone with the history of Natalie Elphicke is much easier for his foes to explain than it is for his friends.
The next time, if there’s a next time, a Conservative MP of her ilk offers to come over to Labour, Sir Keir might be better advised to say thanks, but no thanks.
Doesn’t Luke 15:11-32 kinda apply?
The parable of the Lost Son.
That shows the lost son a) Leaving home b) Regretting that and repenting. c) Returning in regret.
I don't see Natalie Elphicke as a "lost son of Labour who has repented her reckless, dissolute ways and returned home".
It’s not quite the same, but the parable tells us that it is good to celebrate the one who was lost and has now found their way, over those who piously criticise.
Yes, I'd agree with that. The question is over "found their way", and not being naive. There seems to be an issue around the lobbying of Robert Buckland, for example - it was clear that her former party would tip a bucket of doodoo over her, Bad 'Al style, but was Sit Keir properly aware what was coming? That should guide his actions.
I think what I have said on PB in the past is that the proof of the pudding on conversions can only be over time, since like Elisabeth 1 we can't make windows into men's and women's souls.
Perhaps Matthew 10:16 applies "Be as wise as serpents, and as gentle as doves."
In the case of the lost son, for example, it might not be wise to put him in charge of managing his father's wealth for a few years.
My take on Sir Keir is probably that he deems any potential damage is less for him than the benefits of keeping the Conservatives in confusion and doubt, and he has a stop-loss of NE standing down at the next election.
I think his calculation is quite Machiavellian / cold blooded. After all, he's a lawyer !
Good morning
Trevor Phillips interviewing Jonathan Ashworth on Sky this morning said that if the Elphicke story is true then Starmer would need to withdraw the whip and Ashworth response was Elphicke has denied it
Phillips then turned to his panel of three discussing the mornings political interviews, and Andrew Marr said if it was the word of Buckland v Elphicke then he would take Buckland's position as he is one of the few respected conservative mps left
Scanning through the application the biggest issue appears to be that Kent County Council Highways department are as useless and contradictory as they have always been - when writing things down put all your objections in the first one and don't contradict yourself.
And highways are the people who will kill an application, so at the moment the issue is not with Dover, until the highways objections are resolved the application isn't going to get approved...
Side note - 1 of the complaints notes that the responsible planning officer has changed multiple times - not surprising because I suspect no planning officer can live on the wages Dover council pays when the private sector will pay twice as much..
Actually it was not the planning controversy but her trying to influence the legal process over her husband's trial
They did not discuss this issue
If Elphicke did something wrong, wasn't it incumbent on the Lord Chancellor to have acted and not to have covered it up? It makes you wonder what else has happened over the last few years that the government is also hiding from us.
She got a meeting with him under false pretences, tried to speak to him about the trial, he refused to do so and ended the meeting. No doubt he and others of her party would have thought even less of her poor judgment after that but what do you think Buckland should have done next?
I am really not seeing a coverup here. Nor, other than a general falling apart allegation, do I see the upside for Starmer on this one.
She doesn’t come across as the sharpest knife in the box, does she? Has she anything to her credit, apart from seeing the light about Sunak and his crew?
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
Err, no they don’t. You’re at best confusing the UAE with Saudi Arabia or Qatar, very different places.
These things are all relative, but UAE and Israel are the most liberal places in the Middle East. I was sitting in a a beach bar with a drink at 11am today, watching women in bikinis walk past…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates Homosexuality is illegal in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and under the federal criminal provisions, consensual same-sex sexual activity is punishable by imprisonment; extra-marital sexual activity between persons of different sexes is also illegal.
While there have been no known arrests or prosecutions for same-sex sexual activity in the UAE since at least 2015 (as of 2022), with no upper limit to penalties codified, capital punishment is a theoretical outcome for (married) participants.
If you trust their numbers - I don't - nobody has been prosecuted since 2015 which is an improvement, I guess.
I don't visit or support countries that don't allow people to live freely, including at the moment the US.
When the MP for Dover and Deal was presented to Sir Keir as interested in defection, it is not hard to see why he and the tight group of aides he discussed it with reckoned that this was an offer too salivating to refuse. “ I’m completely fine with it,” says one of the non-squeamish members of the shadow cabinet. “We’ve got an election to win. The name of the game is beating the Tories. When an opportunity like this comes along, you can’t pass it up.” What they did not anticipate was the scale and the intensity of the backlash.
This might have been foreseen because Ms Elphicke has landed in Labour with more baggage than a luggage carousel at Heathrow during the school summer holidays. As for her politics, she once attacked Marcus Rashford for campaigning for free school meals, one of many reasons to doubt whether she has any genuine affinity with her new party.
The broader reason for the unease rippling through Labour’s ranks is that it feeds into the anxiety that there is no compromise with their party’s values that the leadership might not make in pursuit of what it sees as potential electoral advantage. Voters may have a general preference for broad-church parties, but they also tend to like them to come with sturdy walls and some pillars of principle.
What’s not settled, as we approach the election, is a consensus view about Sir Keir. It is still up for argument both within his party and among voters whether he is a firmly anchored leader of genuine conviction, the case made by his allies. Or is he, as enemies to both right and left contend, a ruthless opportunist who will say or do anything to get power? The willingness to clasp hands with someone with the history of Natalie Elphicke is much easier for his foes to explain than it is for his friends.
The next time, if there’s a next time, a Conservative MP of her ilk offers to come over to Labour, Sir Keir might be better advised to say thanks, but no thanks.
Doesn’t Luke 15:11-32 kinda apply?
The parable of the Lost Son.
That shows the lost son a) Leaving home b) Regretting that and repenting. c) Returning in regret.
I don't see Natalie Elphicke as a "lost son of Labour who has repented her reckless, dissolute ways and returned home".
It’s not quite the same, but the parable tells us that it is good to celebrate the one who was lost and has now found their way, over those who piously criticise.
Yes, I'd agree with that. The question is over "found their way", and not being naive. There seems to be an issue around the lobbying of Robert Buckland, for example - it was clear that her former party would tip a bucket of doodoo over her, Bad 'Al style, but was Sit Keir properly aware what was coming? That should guide his actions.
I think what I have said on PB in the past is that the proof of the pudding on conversions can only be over time, since like Elisabeth 1 we can't make windows into men's and women's souls.
Perhaps Matthew 10:16 applies "Be as wise as serpents, and as gentle as doves."
In the case of the lost son, for example, it might not be wise to put him in charge of managing his father's wealth for a few years.
My take on Sir Keir is probably that he deems any potential damage is less for him than the benefits of keeping the Conservatives in confusion and doubt, and he has a stop-loss of NE standing down at the next election.
I think his calculation is quite Machiavellian / cold blooded. After all, he's a lawyer !
I suspect you and @DavidL in his comment just above underestimate Starmer. Fundamentally he's a traditionalist and is motivated by his working class roots. He sees the Red Wall as his kind of people and thinks the Labour Party has abandoned them in recent years. Happily, and this is a very politician thing, he also thinks engaging them is how he's going to win the election.
If he believed university educated social liberals was the way forward would be still be as keen on the Red Wall? Because I think there's a danger in his, I believe deliberately and quite ruthlessly, rejecting liberalism.
Firstly almost his entire party is made up of such people. They will go along with Starmer if he wins them an election but after that?
Secondly graduates are a large and increasingly large demographic looking for a political home. Does he really want to repel them.
Thirdly Starmer is a traditionalist not a populist. The Elphicke defection muddies the distinction.
But I don't think Starmer is triangulating or just saying what people want to hear. If anything he's not triangulating enough
This is a really interesting take and chimes with the Morgan McSweeney profile on Unherd - https://unherd.com/2024/05/the-mcsweeney-project/ (well worth reading, even though Unherd is not a regular destination for me at least)
Certainly Starmer seems more “Labourist” than socialist, progressive, or social democrat, if we’re throwing broad terms around. And there’s a long heritage for that - Hardie and Macdonald were both expressly Labourist rather than socialist.
I kind of think the only long term solution to this is to recognise that Labour’s internal coalition will not hold and that the centre left needs to re-form around two or more parties (which in turn requires PR). But there is absolutely no appetite for that within Labour, and right now the guiding narrative is for people to stick fingers in their ears and hope Starmer will lead them to the promised land. Spoiler: he won’t.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Good morning everyne, even slugabeds, or people on holiday drinking wine for breakfast.
Marhaba!
Sod .
I'm sitting here looking at my solar panels that need a jet wash later, so I've got to sort out the 6m extendi-right-angle-device for the jetwasher so that my kind friend who has offered to go on next-door's carport roof to do it can be given the tool to do the job.
First time we’ve been away anywhere for months, just a local hotel with a good all-inclusive promotion now that we’re out of season. Place is busy though, with a combination of local staycationers and tourists, and the weather is still just about bearable outside, at least in the shade, 37ºC and 33% humidity at 13:00.
Buying (or renting) the right tool for the job always pays dividends in the end.
37C is tolerable? Eeek. I like heat but that’s pushing it
Did you see Janan Ganesh’s latest column in the FT? He reckons people that casually dismiss Dubai as boring are idiots. He says it is intrinsically interesting. And he’s right. It’s still not for me, but it is fascinating in a weird way, and also illustrative
It’s 24C here on the south coast of the Gargano, Puglia. Might peak around 26C with cloudless skies then cool to 15C late at night. This is it. This is my perfect weather. You can still easily walk in it - but you can also sunbathe and swim (in a heated pool).
In the evenings you can happily sit outside but maybe with a very light sweater or casual puffer gilet. In the night you don’t need aircon
And endless endless sunshine. All day maximum sunshine
By July it will be insufferably hot here
Stayed at an upmarket gastropub near Leominster on the way back from a week in NW Wales. Lovely place, glorious sunshine, 20 degrees during the day. They had four beautifully equipped "lodges" in the grounds. However, planning had insisted they each had a black roof. So they had installed black bitumen tiles. These things suck in heat. As a result, even in early May, they were still unbearably hot to sleep in at four in the morning.
We had exactly the same issue and had to install air-con.
(BTW, travelled on a B-road between Machynlleth out through Forge and on to LLanidloes. It might be the single most scenic road I have travelled in Britain. Outstanding scenery. At least, on a clear day when you can see it..)
Beautiful road. Part of Lon Las Cymru, the Welsh national cycle route - the downhill into Mach is one of those must-do rides. Unfortunately the Star Inn at Dylife looks to have closed permanently.
There is just so much cycling to do, it's a bit overwhelming. And that route you can get to the start and end by train. Perfect.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
The size of the majority, though, has no bearing on the length of the reich IMHO.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Good morning everyne, even slugabeds, or people on holiday drinking wine for breakfast.
Marhaba!
Sod .
I'm sitting here looking at my solar panels that need a jet wash later, so I've got to sort out the 6m extendi-right-angle-device for the jetwasher so that my kind friend who has offered to go on next-door's carport roof to do it can be given the tool to do the job.
First time we’ve been away anywhere for months, just a local hotel with a good all-inclusive promotion now that we’re out of season. Place is busy though, with a combination of local staycationers and tourists, and the weather is still just about bearable outside, at least in the shade, 37ºC and 33% humidity at 13:00.
Buying (or renting) the right tool for the job always pays dividends in the end.
37C is tolerable? Eeek. I like heat but that’s pushing it
Did you see Janan Ganesh’s latest column in the FT? He reckons people that casually dismiss Dubai as boring are idiots. He says it is intrinsically interesting. And he’s right. It’s still not for me, but it is fascinating in a weird way, and also illustrative
It’s 24C here on the south coast of the Gargano, Puglia. Might peak around 26C with cloudless skies then cool to 15C late at night. This is it. This is my perfect weather. You can still easily walk in it - but you can also sunbathe and swim (in a heated pool).
In the evenings you can happily sit outside but maybe with a very light sweater or casual puffer gilet. In the night you don’t need aircon
And endless endless sunshine. All day maximum sunshine
By July it will be insufferably hot here
I haven't been to Dubai but also don't get the appeal sufficiently to want to go.
It’s a nice place to find winter sun from the UK. Robert @rcs1000 had a holiday here once and raved about it, but he stayed in a very fancy hotel that had just opened, and now goes for a grand a night.
They put people to death for being gay.
Err, no they don’t. You’re at best confusing the UAE with Saudi Arabia or Qatar, very different places.
These things are all relative, but UAE and Israel are the most liberal places in the Middle East. I was sitting in a a beach bar with a drink at 11am today, watching women in bikinis walk past…
Dubai yes, but wander over to Sharjah and they will be less comfortable.
I have been to UAE a couple of times when my brother was there. Pleasant winter weather and the desert is beautiful, but I won't bother going again. Suits some people though with guaranteed sun and sterile blingy hotels. Just not my cup of tea.
I would like to see more of Oman though.
Once went to Ras al Khaimah a day after they had a monumental downpour. Streets were like Venice.
However, the desert had greened up dramatically on the drive back to Dubai.
Long time since I've been though. When I first went (late 80's?) they were still loading dhows by hand on the Creek.
They still have dhows on the Creek, although the vast majority of the imports now come from the huge container port a couple of miles away!
Yes, it rains properly on a handful of days a year between late November and about now, and it can look like Venice for a couple of days in the areas without good drainage. Same as snow days in the UK.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
Surely if Reform had put up 1500 candidates at the Locals and polled 15 % the Tory vote would have been been 15%, add on the Lib Dems are not going to poll 17% and Labours lead will then match the Opinion Polls. Conservative Central Office talks rubbish these days and people still fall for it. Blackpool South result exceeded the Opinion Polls!!! The Tories are doomed.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Probably the leader after next if he stands for parliament, right? Unless Mordaunt goes down in Portsmouth. Not inconceivable chance they split too, Streetites and Braver-nochers
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Better, I think, hence complaints that the Leader has been too meddling in places, but with so many new MPs incoming across the House there will always be plenty of wrong 'uns slipping through.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
Like Blair, PM Starmer would benefit from an economy significantly on the up. However, all of those who have supported him getting to be PM will have their hand out. And he will have to disappoint most.
And Labour has no answer to the small boats. Expect it to become an armada of bigger boats. What then?
I suspect ID cards are going to make a reappearance in the next parliament.
Britain does not have spare billions of pounds for a bureaucrats hobbyhorse.
We always have spare billions of pounds for bureaucrats' hobbyhorses.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
Like Blair, PM Starmer would benefit from an economy significantly on the up. However, all of those who have supported him getting to be PM will have their hand out. And he will have to disappoint most.
And Labour has no answer to the small boats. Expect it to become an armada of bigger boats. What then?
I suspect ID cards are going to make a reappearance in the next parliament.
Three requirements for the database:
1) Accessible to the public so they can check and challenge any inaccuracies in their records;
2) Full record of who has accessed it so we can check who is looking at our info and challenge anyone who has done so for an improper purpose.
3) Criminal prosecutions for any breach of 2.
And two for the ID card:
1) Supersedes all other forms of ID including driving licences, DBS clearances and NI numbers;
2) Does not have to be carried at all times.
If those five criteria are met we can be reasonably confident that our rights are protected and Satan is wondering what the fuck to do with his new ice rink.
A) rather than doing a stupid merge of databases to create the ids, do it passport style. Proper applications, evidence. Even the passport database is full of bogus entries.
C) any attempt to create a universal government database using the is will be met by shoving a chainsaw up the arse of the proposer. Then switching it on. In low gear
D) using the ID code as the unique key for other databases is fine, on the other hand. And should be encouraged.
E) it should be possible for *anyone* to verify a card. Scenario - you show card. Smart phone via rfid (or other) takes the person checking to a web portal showing just your photo and name.
I generally agree with this, but just a note on verification: there are legitimate security concerns around that, especially if the ID is linked with clearances etc.
It's tricky because without easy verification there's no benefit in checking ID (see the uselessness of showing passports to polling staff who can't check them).
You also need to account for the fact that around 40% of the population will change their name at some point in their life, and just over 25% make regular use of multiple identities for a whole variety of reasons, most of which are entirely legitimate.
Maybe just handing out multiple ID cards would get round this (and people who need to protect their identity could have multiple disposable IDs), but it's just one aspect which could lead into a huge can of worms being opened up.
The system would only verify the information actually physically displayed on the card - the name and photo of the person who holds the card.
Mate of mine was in Oman. At 40c. He was quite active there ie not a beach holiday (does Oman have a beach?). Said you had to drink warm water when you were hot or thirsty because if you drank cold water you would get some kind of reaction and try to drink uncontrollably. Or something.
Doesn't sound like my idea of fun. 30c for me is perfectly fine.
Yes you can drown from drinking too much water, think back to the Extasy-related deaths in the ‘90s. If you’re outside for a long time in extreme heat, drink approx 1 litre per hour, and drink water at room temperature rather than straight from the fridge, as the body has to do more work do deal with the fridge water.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Continually oppressing and attacking a weaker neighbour and expecting them to just roll over and take it?
Sounds like the whole history of Israel post 1950.
Surely if Reform had put up 1500 candidates at the Locals and polled 15 % the Tory vote would have been been 15%, add on the Lib Dems are not going to poll 17% and Labours lead will then match the Opinion Polls. Conservative Central Office talks rubbish these days and people still fall for it. Blackpool South result exceeded the Opinion Polls!!! The Tories are doomed.
Reform averaged about 300 votes per ward they fought, or about 7 to 8% (edit). They got 16.9% in Blackpool in perfect conditions. They aren't getting 15% nationally. They will depress the Tory vote by some amount however. Probably 3 or 4%. I'll give them 'double Referendum 97' effect
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
It's all yours shouts Israel to Gaza. We want to live in peace how about you guys. First Gaza then who knows the West Bank perhaps.
As you have seen with the forcible removal of Israeli settlers, pictures of IDF soldiers dragging Israelis kicking and screaming from their homes, nothing is off the table.
What, you say? You get rid of the government we were dealing with and elect one dedicated to our destruction? Well in that case we're also tearing up the rule book.
The text highlights the slow disintegration of the liberal international order that has governed the global economy since World War II. While the world economy appears resilient on the surface, there are underlying fragilities that could lead to anarchy and conflict. The erosion of norms and institutions, such as the World Trade Organization and the IMF, is evident, with sanctions and subsidy wars becoming more prevalent.
The decline of the current system threatens to slow down progress made in poverty reduction, global health, and peacekeeping efforts. The potential collapse of the liberal order could lead to a state of anarchy, favoring coercion and violence over cooperation. The loss of trust and institutional frameworks for collaboration could hinder global efforts to address challenges like AI arms races and space exploration.
The return of zero-sum worldviews, such as those embodied by Donald Trump, and the fear of conflicts between major powers like the US, China, and Russia, could accelerate the breakdown of the current system. The decline of the liberal order poses a significant risk to global stability and prosperity, with potential consequences far more profound than many realize.
Ultimately, the text warns that once the current system breaks down, it is unlikely to be replaced by new rules, leading to a more chaotic and violent world order. The decline of the liberal international order threatens to undo the progress made in the past decades and could have far-reaching implications for global peace and cooperation.
Mate of mine was in Oman. At 40c. He was quite active there ie not a beach holiday (does Oman have a beach?). Said you had to drink warm water when you were hot or thirsty because if you drank cold water you would get some kind of reaction and try to drink uncontrollably. Or something.
Doesn't sound like my idea of fun. 30c for me is perfectly fine.
Yes you can drown from drinking too much water, think back to the Extacy-related deaths in the ‘90s. If you’re outside for a long time in extreme heat, drink approx 1 litre per hour, and drink water at room temperature rather than straight from the fridge, as the body has to do more work do deal with the fridge water.
You get lots of warnings about this when you do your first marathon - don't take water from every station. You can end up with low sodium levels in your blood and then you're in trouble.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
They also tried the permanent occupation route too.
When the MP for Dover and Deal was presented to Sir Keir as interested in defection, it is not hard to see why he and the tight group of aides he discussed it with reckoned that this was an offer too salivating to refuse. “ I’m completely fine with it,” says one of the non-squeamish members of the shadow cabinet. “We’ve got an election to win. The name of the game is beating the Tories. When an opportunity like this comes along, you can’t pass it up.” What they did not anticipate was the scale and the intensity of the backlash.
This might have been foreseen because Ms Elphicke has landed in Labour with more baggage than a luggage carousel at Heathrow during the school summer holidays. As for her politics, she once attacked Marcus Rashford for campaigning for free school meals, one of many reasons to doubt whether she has any genuine affinity with her new party.
The broader reason for the unease rippling through Labour’s ranks is that it feeds into the anxiety that there is no compromise with their party’s values that the leadership might not make in pursuit of what it sees as potential electoral advantage. Voters may have a general preference for broad-church parties, but they also tend to like them to come with sturdy walls and some pillars of principle.
What’s not settled, as we approach the election, is a consensus view about Sir Keir. It is still up for argument both within his party and among voters whether he is a firmly anchored leader of genuine conviction, the case made by his allies. Or is he, as enemies to both right and left contend, a ruthless opportunist who will say or do anything to get power? The willingness to clasp hands with someone with the history of Natalie Elphicke is much easier for his foes to explain than it is for his friends.
The next time, if there’s a next time, a Conservative MP of her ilk offers to come over to Labour, Sir Keir might be better advised to say thanks, but no thanks.
Doesn’t Luke 15:11-32 kinda apply?
The parable of the Lost Son.
That shows the lost son a) Leaving home b) Regretting that and repenting. c) Returning in regret.
I don't see Natalie Elphicke as a "lost son of Labour who has repented her reckless, dissolute ways and returned home".
It’s not quite the same, but the parable tells us that it is good to celebrate the one who was lost and has now found their way, over those who piously criticise.
Yes, I'd agree with that. The question is over "found their way", and not being naive. There seems to be an issue around the lobbying of Robert Buckland, for example - it was clear that her former party would tip a bucket of doodoo over her, Bad 'Al style, but was Sit Keir properly aware what was coming? That should guide his actions.
I think what I have said on PB in the past is that the proof of the pudding on conversions can only be over time, since like Elisabeth 1 we can't make windows into men's and women's souls.
Perhaps Matthew 10:16 applies "Be as wise as serpents, and as gentle as doves."
In the case of the lost son, for example, it might not be wise to put him in charge of managing his father's wealth for a few years.
My take on Sir Keir is probably that he deems any potential damage is less for him than the benefits of keeping the Conservatives in confusion and doubt, and he has a stop-loss of NE standing down at the next election.
I think his calculation is quite Machiavellian / cold blooded. After all, he's a lawyer !
Good morning
Trevor Phillips interviewing Jonathan Ashworth on Sky this morning said that if the Elphicke story is true then Starmer would need to withdraw the whip and Ashworth response was Elphicke has denied it
Phillips then turned to his panel of three discussing the mornings political interviews, and Andrew Marr said if it was the word of Buckland v Elphicke then he would take Buckland's position as he is one of the few respected conservative mps left
Scanning through the application the biggest issue appears to be that Kent County Council Highways department are as useless and contradictory as they have always been - when writing things down put all your objections in the first one and don't contradict yourself.
And highways are the people who will kill an application, so at the moment the issue is not with Dover, until the highways objections are resolved the application isn't going to get approved...
Side note - 1 of the complaints notes that the responsible planning officer has changed multiple times - not surprising because I suspect no planning officer can live on the wages Dover council pays when the private sector will pay twice as much..
Actually it was not the planning controversy but her trying to influence the legal process over her husband's trial
They did not discuss this issue
If Elphicke did something wrong, wasn't it incumbent on the Lord Chancellor to have acted and not to have covered it up? It makes you wonder what else has happened over the last few years that the government is also hiding from us.
She got a meeting with him under false pretences, tried to speak to him about the trial, he refused to do so and ended the meeting. No doubt he and others of her party would have thought even less of her poor judgment after that but what do you think Buckland should have done next?
I am really not seeing a coverup here. Nor, other than a general falling apart allegation, do I see the upside for Starmer on this one.
Thing is, if it wasn't OK now, why was it OK before Wednesday? Obviously, the answer is that la Elphicke wasn't batting for the other team then and she is now. Which is how politics works, but it's not dignified.
The other curiousity... The normal response to a defection is to belittle the defector, release something to discredit them... but the Conservatives do seem to be going all-in on the retribution here. How much is that Elphicke has given them more material to work with, and how much has it really got under their skin? And if it's the second, why?
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
In case anyone is interested, Mr and Mrs Sandpit stayed in Hotel Riu Dubai www.riu.com, for $280 (£220) per room per night, on an all-inclusive basis for 24 hours. Unlike other PB travel correspondents, we paid for our own room! This is about as late in the year as you’d want to be in Dubai, it’s okay in the shade but hot in the sun.
When the MP for Dover and Deal was presented to Sir Keir as interested in defection, it is not hard to see why he and the tight group of aides he discussed it with reckoned that this was an offer too salivating to refuse. “ I’m completely fine with it,” says one of the non-squeamish members of the shadow cabinet. “We’ve got an election to win. The name of the game is beating the Tories. When an opportunity like this comes along, you can’t pass it up.” What they did not anticipate was the scale and the intensity of the backlash.
This might have been foreseen because Ms Elphicke has landed in Labour with more baggage than a luggage carousel at Heathrow during the school summer holidays. As for her politics, she once attacked Marcus Rashford for campaigning for free school meals, one of many reasons to doubt whether she has any genuine affinity with her new party.
The broader reason for the unease rippling through Labour’s ranks is that it feeds into the anxiety that there is no compromise with their party’s values that the leadership might not make in pursuit of what it sees as potential electoral advantage. Voters may have a general preference for broad-church parties, but they also tend to like them to come with sturdy walls and some pillars of principle.
What’s not settled, as we approach the election, is a consensus view about Sir Keir. It is still up for argument both within his party and among voters whether he is a firmly anchored leader of genuine conviction, the case made by his allies. Or is he, as enemies to both right and left contend, a ruthless opportunist who will say or do anything to get power? The willingness to clasp hands with someone with the history of Natalie Elphicke is much easier for his foes to explain than it is for his friends.
The next time, if there’s a next time, a Conservative MP of her ilk offers to come over to Labour, Sir Keir might be better advised to say thanks, but no thanks.
Doesn’t Luke 15:11-32 kinda apply?
The parable of the Lost Son.
That shows the lost son a) Leaving home b) Regretting that and repenting. c) Returning in regret.
I don't see Natalie Elphicke as a "lost son of Labour who has repented her reckless, dissolute ways and returned home".
It’s not quite the same, but the parable tells us that it is good to celebrate the one who was lost and has now found their way, over those who piously criticise.
Yes, I'd agree with that. The question is over "found their way", and not being naive. There seems to be an issue around the lobbying of Robert Buckland, for example - it was clear that her former party would tip a bucket of doodoo over her, Bad 'Al style, but was Sit Keir properly aware what was coming? That should guide his actions.
I think what I have said on PB in the past is that the proof of the pudding on conversions can only be over time, since like Elisabeth 1 we can't make windows into men's and women's souls.
Perhaps Matthew 10:16 applies "Be as wise as serpents, and as gentle as doves."
In the case of the lost son, for example, it might not be wise to put him in charge of managing his father's wealth for a few years.
My take on Sir Keir is probably that he deems any potential damage is less for him than the benefits of keeping the Conservatives in confusion and doubt, and he has a stop-loss of NE standing down at the next election.
I think his calculation is quite Machiavellian / cold blooded. After all, he's a lawyer !
Good morning
Trevor Phillips interviewing Jonathan Ashworth on Sky this morning said that if the Elphicke story is true then Starmer would need to withdraw the whip and Ashworth response was Elphicke has denied it
Phillips then turned to his panel of three discussing the mornings political interviews, and Andrew Marr said if it was the word of Buckland v Elphicke then he would take Buckland's position as he is one of the few respected conservative mps left
Scanning through the application the biggest issue appears to be that Kent County Council Highways department are as useless and contradictory as they have always been - when writing things down put all your objections in the first one and don't contradict yourself.
And highways are the people who will kill an application, so at the moment the issue is not with Dover, until the highways objections are resolved the application isn't going to get approved...
Side note - 1 of the complaints notes that the responsible planning officer has changed multiple times - not surprising because I suspect no planning officer can live on the wages Dover council pays when the private sector will pay twice as much..
Actually it was not the planning controversy but her trying to influence the legal process over her husband's trial
They did not discuss this issue
If Elphicke did something wrong, wasn't it incumbent on the Lord Chancellor to have acted and not to have covered it up? It makes you wonder what else has happened over the last few years that the government is also hiding from us.
She got a meeting with him under false pretences, tried to speak to him about the trial, he refused to do so and ended the meeting. No doubt he and others of her party would have thought even less of her poor judgment after that but what do you think Buckland should have done next?
I am really not seeing a coverup here. Nor, other than a general falling apart allegation, do I see the upside for Starmer on this one.
Thing is, if it wasn't OK now, why was it OK before Wednesday? Obviously, the answer is that la Elphicke wasn't batting for the other team then and she is now. Which is how politics works, but it's not dignified.
The other curiousity... The normal response to a defection is to belittle the defector, release something to discredit them... but the Conservatives do seem to be going all-in on the retribution here. How much is that Elphicke has given them more material to work with, and how much has it really got under their skin? And if it's the second, why?
Mate of mine was in Oman. At 40c. He was quite active there ie not a beach holiday (does Oman have a beach?). Said you had to drink warm water when you were hot or thirsty because if you drank cold water you would get some kind of reaction and try to drink uncontrollably. Or something.
Doesn't sound like my idea of fun. 30c for me is perfectly fine.
Yes you can drown from drinking too much water, think back to the Extacy-related deaths in the ‘90s. If you’re outside for a long time in extreme heat, drink approx 1 litre per hour, and drink water at room temperature rather than straight from the fridge, as the body has to do more work do deal with the fridge water.
I was out in the boonies in Yemen. Went to inspect a rig site where guys were going to based for months. It was over 50 degrees C at the bottom of a wadi with pale rock reflecting the light back at you. An hour was enough for me there. (Although there were (what has since been split into) Arabian Green Bee-eaters down there. Which was nice....)
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Probably the leader after next if he stands for parliament, right? Unless Mordaunt goes down in Portsmouth. Not inconceivable chance they split too, Streetites and Braver-nochers
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
The size of the majority, though, has no bearing on the length of the reich IMHO.
Agreed, though what replaces it if Starmer disappoints?
All the signs point towards a Tory party that will be unelectable in 5 years.
IMO we will be facing a particular risk of a Trump-like non-politician populist in 5 years time.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
He'd have a better chance if there were to be a coronation, but the next leadership election is going to be (bitterly) contested.
What chance would a new MP who hasn't had time to build up a base in the parliamentary party have of getting through to the final two?
I could just about see how it might plausibly happen, but he'd depend on the right-wingers being more interested in taking each other out than in arguing against the moderate.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Probably the leader after next if he stands for parliament, right? Unless Mordaunt goes down in Portsmouth. Not inconceivable chance they split too, Streetites and Braver-nochers
Street is 28 on BF
Yeah he's not winning after this election, he could win a mid term or straight after a second defeat.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
They also tried the permanent occupation route too.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
He'd have a better chance if there were to be a coronation, but the next leadership election is going to be (bitterly) contested.
What chance would a new MP who hasn't had time to build up a base in the parliamentary party have of getting through to the final two?
I could just about see how it might plausibly happen, but he'd depend on the right-wingers being more interested in taking each other out than in arguing against the moderate.
I'd like a Street-ite Conservative Party. But it ain't going to have Andy as its leader.
He's currently 60, ever so slightly younger than Starmer. So at the election after next, he'd be 65. That's just not credible for someone to start being PM.
(Similarly, I can't see SKS doing more than 5 years or so. Win in May 2028, hand over to a successor in autumn 2029, retiring to mild gratitude from the nation.)
That Street is probably the best available candidate for centrist Conservatives just shows how grim the situation is.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
The size of the majority, though, has no bearing on the length of the reich IMHO.
Agreed, though what replaces it if Starmer disappoints?
All the signs point towards a Tory party that will be unelectable in 5 years.
IMO we will be facing a particular risk of a Trump-like non-politician populist in 5 years time.
Yeah, but all the signs don't point that way, do they?
That's projection based on past experience and wishful thinking.
The new Ukrainian CinC needs to get a grip while he can still blame Zaluzhny for everything. There are brigade level formations who are in business for themselves and don't particularly care what the General Staff thinks. Units will 'defect' from one brigade to another based on bribery and patronage and you've got battalion and smaller units who are negotiating directly with the Russians.
Yes comrade, whatever you say.
I daresay you got this 'insight' from licking the fetid dribblings coming off Russian Telegram?
Why do you have this pathological fear of hearing possibly accurate or insightful information about Ukraine. What's the Panglossian equivalent for a country at war.
Yes, a bit of an overreaction to what was really just a non sequitur reply to my comment. That apart it's interesting to read the condensed Telegram output, dubious or not.
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
He'd have a better chance if there were to be a coronation, but the next leadership election is going to be (bitterly) contested.
What chance would a new MP who hasn't had time to build up a base in the parliamentary party have of getting through to the final two?
I have more fucking chance being next tory leader than Captain Peacock.
A 60-odd year old proven loser who has never been an MP - no chance.
E2A: Also, the prospect of Mickey Fabz as FLOTUK. Fucking hell.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
It's all yours shouts Israel to Gaza. We want to live in peace how about you guys. First Gaza then who knows the West Bank perhaps.
As you have seen with the forcible removal of Israeli settlers, pictures of IDF soldiers dragging Israelis kicking and screaming from their homes, nothing is off the table.
What, you say? You get rid of the government we were dealing with and elect one dedicated to our destruction? Well in that case we're also tearing up the rule book.
There has never been a rule book for either side. Both are willing to do amoral things to protect their tribe. We've just reached the point where the previous unspoken practices and acts are celebrated because there will be no consequences.
IMO Israel is to become a true middle eastern state. Highly reactive. Controlled by one political wing that's beholden to a religious majority. It's demography means secular Judaism has been out competed by a more belligerent populist type.
The only hope the Tories have is that the public recoil in horror when they see how wooden and insincere Sir Keir is during the campaign. This clip from yesterday gives me some encouragement it could happen.
Have you ever met anyone in real life who is this unnatural? Reminds me of Theresa May at her most awkward
Lab now having to use up value bandwidth defending their new MP for Dover.
What an utterly stupid decision that was to accept her last week.
Rawnsley in Observer agrees.
Due diligence failure. Might delay or cancel any other 'pipeline' defections (if they actually exist) However for it to turn into a catastrophe it would require a defection/resignation out of Labour or a shadow front bench resignation over it.
One wonders how much better their due diligence is for the incoming crop of candidates/MPs. How many more Jared O'Mara's are lurking on their lists...
Especially with the chance of paper candidates doing a Twigg, we may find out! (Not to besmirch the Twiglet who was solid)
It seems an effort is being made to persuade Andy Street to stand in Solihull where he comes from and some in the party see him as an influential conservative even leader
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Probably the leader after next if he stands for parliament, right? Unless Mordaunt goes down in Portsmouth. Not inconceivable chance they split too, Streetites and Braver-nochers
Street would be a great party leader, but like Starmer in 2015 he’ll be the leader after next if he gets a safe seat this time around - and how many really safe seats are there at the moment?
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
I am old enough to remember the 60s and70s when governments changed frequently, not least because we did not have a particularly clear idea of where we should be going. Since then it has taken some major cock ups or sheer exhaustion to remove a sitting government.
You may be right that we are heading into another period of uncertainty and increased volatility but the last 40 years have pointed in the other direction. If Labour get a majority over 150 it will be almost impossible for the Tories to remove them in a single swipe, just like Cameron failed to do in 2010, requiring the coalition.
Why?
Because there is no sign that the Tories will learn the lessons of defeat.
Could you have said the same about Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in 2019?
Yes, the signs were there that Corbynism was dead 2 years after its brief flourish.
What lessons do you think the Tories will learn from their coming defeat*? And who will they choose to lead the way back to power?
* for the sake of this debate assume a solid Labour majority.
Good points. The Johnson purge in 2019 removed, AIUI, more than just the Remainers. It discouraged people who might have been motivated to follow them. At least Corbyn and his acolytes didn’t run purges. If the Tories lose badly at the next GE I can see them being, for a while anyway, as rudderless as the LibDems have been.
I do not agree with you there, Mr Cole. You seem to have fallen for the Tory-Labour spin that the Lib Dems are rudderless and pointless. That is far from the truth, as all Tory-Labour spin is.
Round my way, the Lib Dems have taken the lead in criticising the Government's helpfulness towards Israel, their continued support for the water companies' incompetent handling of the sewage crisis, their run down of the NHS, their lack of concern for homelessness, their corruption and cronyism.....
And the ultimate objective continues to be to create/restore/salvage a society that is both liberal and democratic.
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives will do that.
As a once-upon-a-time Liberal activist, who still sometimes votes LibDem, I’m very glad to read that. I suspect part of my negativity towards Davey and his colleagues is due to lack of activity hereabouts, where they’ve been supplanted as third party by the Greens, and a failure by the media in general to pay them any attention whatsoever. Whatever Davey’s merits, he’s no Jo Grimond, David Steel or Paddy Ashdown when it comes to getting media attention. Or, until everything went very severely pear-shaped, Jeremy Thorpe! Of course 2015 hit the party very hard.
Yes indeed, Mr Cole. I think the Liberal Party was very lucky in having some of the leaders who emerged to present the public face of Liberalism. And they in turn were lucky in facing two big parties who were essentially timid and set against some strong progressive Liberal measures - joining the Common Market, moving over to Site Value Rating, introducing the Single Transferable Vote in Multi-Member Constituencies, Co-Ownership and Co-Partnership, to name just a handful. They also had the benefit of a lively local press, and fair-minded national media, like the Guardian and the BBC used to be.
And local Liberal Associations were much more autonomous than they are now, when everything has become much more centralised, but so has everything else.
But I think the present strategy will pay dividends in the near future. The media - including here on PB - is obsessed with the fortunes of Labour and the Conservatives. That is not the reality on the ground, as this month's local elections show. If you look at the map of these, especially once the Dorset result was known - and then colour in the councils which did not have elections this year, you have Dorset, Somerset a broad band of councils across Devon, and then a broad sweep of LibDem orange across the south of the country, sweeping up into the Midlands.
This is where the Lib Dems are strong and actively campaigning. And one reason why the Conservatives are having to spend their massive war-chest on defending up to 200 of their held seats.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Trying to keep several million people in permanent subjugation ?
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
They also tried the permanent occupation route too.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
The size of the majority, though, has no bearing on the length of the reich IMHO.
Agreed, though what replaces it if Starmer disappoints?
All the signs point towards a Tory party that will be unelectable in 5 years.
IMO we will be facing a particular risk of a Trump-like non-politician populist in 5 years time.
If Starmer fails, and Labour are riven with infighting, the Tories will be the obvious alternative.
They would be unelectable with Truss as leader, but however much I dislike the politics of someone like Braverman, I don't see that her politics would be anathema to most of the population, particularly if that population was angry and desperate.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
The size of the majority, though, has no bearing on the length of the reich IMHO.
Agreed, though what replaces it if Starmer disappoints?
All the signs point towards a Tory party that will be unelectable in 5 years.
IMO we will be facing a particular risk of a Trump-like non-politician populist in 5 years time.
Yeah, but all the signs don't point that way, do they?
That's projection based on past experience and wishful thinking.
Really? When did we last have a party as unpopular as this one get back into power in one term?
What signs do you see that the Tories will be electable in 5 years?
I'd say the wishful thinking is far more evident in your reply than my post.
FWIW my 'wishful thinking' is that Labour are keeping their powder dry for a competent, if necessarily relatively unambitious, first term and are reelected because they are trusted and relatively uncorrupt. Then a second term might have more favourable economic and geopolitical considerations such that they can be more ambitious in tackling the rising inequality in our country.
Failing that, my wishful thinking is that the Tories return to competence and integrity far more quickly than past oppositions have done so and we get a decent one nation Tory government in five years time.
My post was almost the opposite of that wishful thinking.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
They also tried the permanent occupation route too.
What was that definition of insanity again?
They handed Gaza back in 2006.
After 40 years of unsuccessful occupation
Finally. So you accept that they handed it back. Which was my point. I mean we're still waiting for Spain to hand back the Dominican Republic aren't we.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
What the documentary made clear was that Hamas managed to supplant the PLO because Bill Clinton talked Arafat into giving up violence in the Oslo accords. The Israelis did not properly comply with Oslo, in particular they failed to address the settlers and the religious right on their own side and that undermined the PLO. They released people who had conspired to blow up the Mosque on Temple Mount. They did nothing to facilitate or encourage economic growth in Gaza or the West Bank.
What I think is clear is that both sides need to be willing to take on and defeat the madmen on their own side for peace to prevail. And there is little evidence of that on either side to date.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
It's all yours shouts Israel to Gaza. We want to live in peace how about you guys. First Gaza then who knows the West Bank perhaps.
As you have seen with the forcible removal of Israeli settlers, pictures of IDF soldiers dragging Israelis kicking and screaming from their homes, nothing is off the table.
What, you say? You get rid of the government we were dealing with and elect one dedicated to our destruction? Well in that case we're also tearing up the rule book.
There has never been a rule book for either side. Both are willing to do amoral things to protect their tribe. We've just reached the point where the previous unspoken practices and acts are celebrated because there will be no consequences.
IMO Israel is to become a true middle eastern state. Highly reactive. Controlled by one political wing that's beholden to a religious majority. It's demography means secular Judaism has been out competed by a more belligerent populist type.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
They also tried the permanent occupation route too.
What was that definition of insanity again?
They handed Gaza back in 2006.
After 40 years of unsuccessful occupation
Finally. So you accept that they handed it back. Which was my point. I mean we're still waiting for Spain to hand back the Dominican Republic aren't we.
I never disputed that they "handed it back" albeit in a way that they controlled nearly all land and sea access and economic activity, so I am not sure what point you are making.
There are 3 options: permanent occupation of a population that is impoverished and with nothing to live for other than revenge, extermination/expulsion or negotiation.
It may well be that permanent occupation is the least bad choice as far as Israel is concerned, but it is one thirsty for blood and treasure, as well as being one that corrodes Israeli support both internally and externally.
Good morning everyne, even slugabeds, or people on holiday drinking wine for breakfast.
Marhaba!
Sod .
I'm sitting here looking at my solar panels that need a jet wash later, so I've got to sort out the 6m extendi-right-angle-device for the jetwasher so that my kind friend who has offered to go on next-door's carport roof to do it can be given the tool to do the job.
First time we’ve been away anywhere for months, just a local hotel with a good all-inclusive promotion now that we’re out of season. Place is busy though, with a combination of local staycationers and tourists, and the weather is still just about bearable outside, at least in the shade, 37ºC and 33% humidity at 13:00.
Buying (or renting) the right tool for the job always pays dividends in the end.
37C is tolerable? Eeek. I like heat but that’s pushing it
Did you see Janan Ganesh’s latest column in the FT? He reckons people that casually dismiss Dubai as boring are idiots. He says it is intrinsically interesting. And he’s right. It’s still not for me, but it is fascinating in a weird way, and also illustrative
It’s 24C here on the south coast of the Gargano, Puglia. Might peak around 26C with cloudless skies then cool to 15C late at night. This is it. This is my perfect weather. You can still easily walk in it - but you can also sunbathe and swim (in a heated pool).
In the evenings you can happily sit outside but maybe with a very light sweater or casual puffer gilet. In the night you don’t need aircon
And endless endless sunshine. All day maximum sunshine
By July it will be insufferably hot here
Stayed at an upmarket gastropub near Leominster on the way back from a week in NW Wales. Lovely place, glorious sunshine, 20 degrees during the day. They had four beautifully equipped "lodges" in the grounds. However, planning had insisted they each had a black roof. So they had installed black bitumen tiles. These things suck in heat. As a result, even in early May, they were still unbearably hot to sleep in at four in the morning.
We had exactly the same issue and had to install air-con.
(BTW, travelled on a B-road between Machynlleth out through Forge and on to LLanidloes. It might be the single most scenic road I have travelled in Britain. Outstanding scenery. At least, on a clear day when you can see it..)
Beautiful road. Part of Lon Las Cymru, the Welsh national cycle route - the downhill into Mach is one of those must-do rides. Unfortunately the Star Inn at Dylife looks to have closed permanently.
There is just so much cycling to do, it's a bit overwhelming. And that route you can get to the start and end by train. Perfect.
It is - almost perfect. I might exempt the Old Coach Road section north of Newbridge from that, but it’s barely a mile long.
First long-distance route I did and I enjoyed it so much I’ve done a dozen similar ones since. Then just as you think you’re running out you discover the equivalents in France…
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
What the documentary made clear was that Hamas managed to supplant the PLO because Bill Clinton talked Arafat into giving up violence in the Oslo accords. The Israelis did not properly comply with Oslo, in particular they failed to address the settlers and the religious right on their own side and that undermined the PLO. They released people who had conspired to blow up the Mosque on Temple Mount. They did nothing to facilitate or encourage economic growth in Gaza or the West Bank.
What I think is clear is that both sides need to be willing to take on and defeat the madmen on their own side for peace to prevail. And there is little evidence of that on either side to date.
I can recall the same mutual incomprehension and complete absence of compromise forty years ago. The difference now is that the rare leaders on both sides who were genuine advocates for peace have died, or been assassinated.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
What the documentary made clear was that Hamas managed to supplant the PLO because Bill Clinton talked Arafat into giving up violence in the Oslo accords. The Israelis did not properly comply with Oslo, in particular they failed to address the settlers and the religious right on their own side and that undermined the PLO. They released people who had conspired to blow up the Mosque on Temple Mount. They did nothing to facilitate or encourage economic growth in Gaza or the West Bank.
What I think is clear is that both sides need to be willing to take on and defeat the madmen on their own side for peace to prevail. And there is little evidence of that on either side to date.
If Israel have succeeded in, at least temporarily, weakening Hamas, and if Netanyahu is forced out of office following an election, then there will be a window of opportunity for both sides to hold the madmen in check and make progress to showing that compromise can deliver peace, security and prosperity.
I don't think that this would have been possible if Israel had not responded to the Hamas attack of last October. In that alternative scenario Hamas would have been ascendant, and would have been emboldened to pursue further attacks on Israel.
I think there is an assumption that Labour will go to shit as soon as they are elected but I want to play devil’s advocate and suggest that the country will give them a very long honeymoon because of how much they want the Tories gone.
The Tories will have to change a lot to get back in, in one term. And based on Labour from 2010 onwards that does not seem likely.
The country wants the Tories gone because they’ve been obsessed for years with Brexit, hard Brexit, and their own internal psychodrama and meanwhile everything has gone to pot, about which they don’t seem to care at all. If things stay that way, the new lot aren’t going to stay popular for ever.
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
What the documentary made clear was that Hamas managed to supplant the PLO because Bill Clinton talked Arafat into giving up violence in the Oslo accords. The Israelis did not properly comply with Oslo, in particular they failed to address the settlers and the religious right on their own side and that undermined the PLO. They released people who had conspired to blow up the Mosque on Temple Mount. They did nothing to facilitate or encourage economic growth in Gaza or the West Bank.
What I think is clear is that both sides need to be willing to take on and defeat the madmen on their own side for peace to prevail. And there is little evidence of that on either side to date.
If Israel have succeeded in, at least temporarily, weakening Hamas, and if Netanyahu is forced out of office following an election, then there will be a window of opportunity for both sides to hold the madmen in check and make progress to showing that compromise can deliver peace, security and prosperity.
I don't think that this would have been possible if Israel had not responded to the Hamas attack of last October. In that alternative scenario Hamas would have been ascendant, and would have been emboldened to pursue further attacks on Israel.
That is a genuinely interesting, optimistic and logical perspective that I haven't read before, nor thought of myself. Thanks.
"It is time to abolish the two-child benefit cap There is an urgent need to reform a welfare system that does not incentivise work and punishes the poor Suella Braverman"
Israeli tanks have entered the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza city in the north of Gaza.
The Israeli military have also entered the Arroub refugee camp near Al-Khalil ("Hebron") on the West Bank.
Meanwhile 300000 Palestinians have been terrorised out of Rafah in the south of Gaza in the last week - many of whom had been displaced from elsewhere since October. They can't go south to Sinai in Egypt because the Israeli military have closed both gates in the perimeter fence. The only direction they can flee in is northwards.
Meanwhile it seems the USA has already built a pier in the central Netzarim corridor. That's a strip running east-west across Gaza and it's occupied by the Israeli military. The pier is NOT being used to bring in aid. Nor has any aid been brought in through any of the land routes (north or south) since Tuesday.
UNRWA are screaming "There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go. There is nowhere safe to go". (That is a direct quote.) You can't get much fucking clearer than that.
UNRWA is the UN agency that supplies aid to Palestinian refugees when it's allowed to. Its HQ in occupied Jerusalem was burnt down by armed fascist thugs last week. Since October, the Israelis have killed more than 100 of its staff in Gaza. This is an international humanitarian organisation.
It seems crystal clear that the Israeli plan is to murder a large percentage of the population in Gaza (it has already killed or wounded around 5% since October) and then let the US and its British helpers emergency-deport the survivors to Cyprus - which will probably take a few weeks, and during those weeks you can expect the holding areas to be under constant bombing and shelling.
Fuck whataboutery. This is by far the biggest ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the world, a crime against humanity (not only in the obvious sense, but in the legal sense too) committed against a people whom the US and Britain don't even recognise as a people sufficiently to allow them to join the United Nations. (The other three veto powers do, as do the majority of countries in the world.)
And?
Something must be done.
I suppose we could ensure that Jewish people are marked out from the rest of the population everywhere so people know who to target. Then I guess we can put them all in once place, you know to keep them safe from those who are targeting them. Though you know, that's really expensive so if a few million of them die in these "camps" then it will make things a lot easier for the rest.
Israel must rid Gaza of Hamas. If the people of Gaza don't hand them over and continue to protect them then this is the result. Instead of blaming Israel how about making the people of Gaza get rid of Hamas. Oh right, they support Hamas and want Israel destroyed and Jews eradicated, maybe in those camps.
I don't think you can get rid of Hamas (although you could try). But there is alternative thinking described in the following thread, which explains a possible alternative or perhaps realistic strategy.
Permananent occupation of a resentful population where 98% oppose your presence doesn't sound like a recipie for long term success either. There are endless new recruits being shaped every day there with nothing else to live for but hatred of the occupation.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
The strategy looks like containment. Build buffer zones, destroy Hamas infrastructure, and be able to control strategic sites.
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Treating a people as subhuman and expecting them not to hate you.
I watched a documentary on BBC iPlayer last night called the Gatekeepers. It was interviews of the last 6 heads of Shin Bet, people who very rarely speak publicly.
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
What the documentary made clear was that Hamas managed to supplant the PLO because Bill Clinton talked Arafat into giving up violence in the Oslo accords. The Israelis did not properly comply with Oslo, in particular they failed to address the settlers and the religious right on their own side and that undermined the PLO. They released people who had conspired to blow up the Mosque on Temple Mount. They did nothing to facilitate or encourage economic growth in Gaza or the West Bank.
What I think is clear is that both sides need to be willing to take on and defeat the madmen on their own side for peace to prevail. And there is little evidence of that on either side to date.
If Israel have succeeded in, at least temporarily, weakening Hamas, and if Netanyahu is forced out of office following an election, then there will be a window of opportunity for both sides to hold the madmen in check and make progress to showing that compromise can deliver peace, security and prosperity.
I don't think that this would have been possible if Israel had not responded to the Hamas attack of last October. In that alternative scenario Hamas would have been ascendant, and would have been emboldened to pursue further attacks on Israel.
Biggest move towards peace Israel could make would be to have a wholesale change to PR. At least make it that you have to achieve 8% or 10% to get seats in the Knesset. The poison of having to appease tiny coalition parties who are unapologetically extreme is the issue that every incoming government has to bow down to.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
I am old enough to remember the 60s and70s when governments changed frequently, not least because we did not have a particularly clear idea of where we should be going. Since then it has taken some major cock ups or sheer exhaustion to remove a sitting government.
You may be right that we are heading into another period of uncertainty and increased volatility but the last 40 years have pointed in the other direction. If Labour get a majority over 150 it will be almost impossible for the Tories to remove them in a single swipe, just like Cameron failed to do in 2010, requiring the coalition.
Why?
Because there is no sign that the Tories will learn the lessons of defeat.
Could you have said the same about Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in 2019?
Yes, the signs were there that Corbynism was dead 2 years after its brief flourish.
What lessons do you think the Tories will learn from their coming defeat*? And who will they choose to lead the way back to power?
* for the sake of this debate assume a solid Labour majority.
Good points. The Johnson purge in 2019 removed, AIUI, more than just the Remainers. It discouraged people who might have been motivated to follow them. At least Corbyn and his acolytes didn’t run purges. If the Tories lose badly at the next GE I can see them being, for a while anyway, as rudderless as the LibDems have been.
I do not agree with you there, Mr Cole. You seem to have fallen for the Tory-Labour spin that the Lib Dems are rudderless and pointless. That is far from the truth, as all Tory-Labour spin is.
Round my way, the Lib Dems have taken the lead in criticising the Government's helpfulness towards Israel, their continued support for the water companies' incompetent handling of the sewage crisis, their run down of the NHS, their lack of concern for homelessness, their corruption and cronyism.....
And the ultimate objective continues to be to create/restore/salvage a society that is both liberal and democratic.
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives will do that.
As a once-upon-a-time Liberal activist, who still sometimes votes LibDem, I’m very glad to read that. I suspect part of my negativity towards Davey and his colleagues is due to lack of activity hereabouts, where they’ve been supplanted as third party by the Greens, and a failure by the media in general to pay them any attention whatsoever. Whatever Davey’s merits, he’s no Jo Grimond, David Steel or Paddy Ashdown when it comes to getting media attention. Or, until everything went very severely pear-shaped, Jeremy Thorpe! Of course 2015 hit the party very hard.
Yes indeed, Mr Cole. I think the Liberal Party was very lucky in having some of the leaders who emerged to present the public face of Liberalism. And they in turn were lucky in facing two big parties who were essentially timid and set against some strong progressive Liberal measures - joining the Common Market, moving over to Site Value Rating, introducing the Single Transferable Vote in Multi-Member Constituencies, Co-Ownership and Co-Partnership, to name just a handful. They also had the benefit of a lively local press, and fair-minded national media, like the Guardian and the BBC used to be.
And local Liberal Associations were much more autonomous than they are now, when everything has become much more centralised, but so has everything else.
But I think the present strategy will pay dividends in the near future. The media - including here on PB - is obsessed with the fortunes of Labour and the Conservatives. That is not the reality on the ground, as this month's local elections show. If you look at the map of these, especially once the Dorset result was known - and then colour in the councils which did not have elections this year, you have Dorset, Somerset a broad band of councils across Devon, and then a broad sweep of LibDem orange across the south of the country, sweeping up into the Midlands.
This is where the Lib Dems are strong and actively campaigning. And one reason why the Conservatives are having to spend their massive war-chest on defending up to 200 of their held seats.
Thank you Mr Clipp. You reminded me of why I joined the Liberal Party back in the early sixties. I hope your optimism is justified, but locally I see little reason for optimism; down the road in Chelmsford, perhaps, but not here in mid Essex, or indeed in once LibDem Colchester.
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
Id agree there. 50 seat majority and imo theyll get mauled in 2029, 150 seat majority and its a 10 year reich minimum Edit - my own projected range at the moment is 50 to 150 weighted slightly to the lower figure
I'm pretty sure the Labour majority, if there is one, will be below 100.
The size of the majority, though, has no bearing on the length of the reich IMHO.
Agreed, though what replaces it if Starmer disappoints?
All the signs point towards a Tory party that will be unelectable in 5 years.
IMO we will be facing a particular risk of a Trump-like non-politician populist in 5 years time.
Yeah, but all the signs don't point that way, do they?
That's projection based on past experience and wishful thinking.
The wishful thinking being “Major didn’t win because we weren’t conservative enough” or “Miliband didn’t win because we weren’t socialist enough” or ditto for Callaghan. So all these wishful thinkers have to be proved wrong, in real time, before normal service can resume. It might be past experience but it is also a recurring pattern.
"It is time to abolish the two-child benefit cap There is an urgent need to reform a welfare system that does not incentivise work and punishes the poor Suella Braverman"
What is the biggest social problem we face. Is it criminals? Is it illegal immigrants? Is it Tory party donors? I'm starting to believe though that the largest social problem we face could be elite, highly desirable men who refuse to commit to long term monogamous relationships and prefer more casual ones.
These are men who are most likely earning a high salary, are good looking and probably come from an above average social background and are now a real social menace. One of the things that puzzles me about modern dating is how people now talk about being 'exclusive', in other words that point in a relationship when you are no longer dating anyone else. Am I really so priggish to think this a little odd. Since so many young men complain that they can't get a date, the obvious conclusion is that we have a few elite men dragging multiple women along simultaneously. Or if not multiple women, at least one who they have no intention of committing to. In the incel language these men are known as 'chads' and I suspect there will be a few pbers who'll get very defensive on this. Perhaps thinking back to their own youth and how they enjoyed duplicitously playing the field. Having now adopted progressive values I doubt they enjoy being seen as the cause of a major social problem. Not that you can really blame the women for this. As one researcher put it recently, you can hardly blame them for choosing a Ferrari over a Ford Fiesta. Dating apps have made all this a heck of a lot worse
You see these women get dragged along by elite men, in some cases for years, only to be dumped and then replaced by a younger women when the time is right. Many of those older women will themselves end up as involuntarily childless. The social consequences of this can be seen in terms of decreasing rates of marriage, births and increasing singledom? Should a society be worried about a rise in the number of single young men?
You now have feminists like Louise Perry proposing truly draconian solutions such as no sex before marriage or at the very least before a man has shown some serious signs of commitment. It does seem remarkable that people are thinking along these terms but it does seem that sexual liberation hasn't worked as well for women as was hoped and a rethink is required. Amidst the depressing statistics it does afford us the opportunity to blame society's failings on well off promiscuous men. And who doesn't enjoy that.
"It is time to abolish the two-child benefit cap There is an urgent need to reform a welfare system that does not incentivise work and punishes the poor Suella Braverman"
Labour majority is nailed on but the size of that majority is very much up for grabs and could well affect the election after the next one.
My view? Rather than a "tradeable bank" that Labour can dine off for 2 or 3 parliamentary terms, depending on how big the majority is, my view is that it's essentially irrelevant and that boot will go on the other foot as soon as he's in.
I am old enough to remember the 60s and70s when governments changed frequently, not least because we did not have a particularly clear idea of where we should be going. Since then it has taken some major cock ups or sheer exhaustion to remove a sitting government.
You may be right that we are heading into another period of uncertainty and increased volatility but the last 40 years have pointed in the other direction. If Labour get a majority over 150 it will be almost impossible for the Tories to remove them in a single swipe, just like Cameron failed to do in 2010, requiring the coalition.
Why?
Because there is no sign that the Tories will learn the lessons of defeat.
Could you have said the same about Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in 2019?
Yes, the signs were there that Corbynism was dead 2 years after its brief flourish.
What lessons do you think the Tories will learn from their coming defeat*? And who will they choose to lead the way back to power?
* for the sake of this debate assume a solid Labour majority.
Good points. The Johnson purge in 2019 removed, AIUI, more than just the Remainers. It discouraged people who might have been motivated to follow them. At least Corbyn and his acolytes didn’t run purges. If the Tories lose badly at the next GE I can see them being, for a while anyway, as rudderless as the LibDems have been.
I do not agree with you there, Mr Cole. You seem to have fallen for the Tory-Labour spin that the Lib Dems are rudderless and pointless. That is far from the truth, as all Tory-Labour spin is.
Round my way, the Lib Dems have taken the lead in criticising the Government's helpfulness towards Israel, their continued support for the water companies' incompetent handling of the sewage crisis, their run down of the NHS, their lack of concern for homelessness, their corruption and cronyism.....
And the ultimate objective continues to be to create/restore/salvage a society that is both liberal and democratic.
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives will do that.
As a once-upon-a-time Liberal activist, who still sometimes votes LibDem, I’m very glad to read that. I suspect part of my negativity towards Davey and his colleagues is due to lack of activity hereabouts, where they’ve been supplanted as third party by the Greens, and a failure by the media in general to pay them any attention whatsoever. Whatever Davey’s merits, he’s no Jo Grimond, David Steel or Paddy Ashdown when it comes to getting media attention. Or, until everything went very severely pear-shaped, Jeremy Thorpe! Of course 2015 hit the party very hard.
Yes indeed, Mr Cole. I think the Liberal Party was very lucky in having some of the leaders who emerged to present the public face of Liberalism. And they in turn were lucky in facing two big parties who were essentially timid and set against some strong progressive Liberal measures - joining the Common Market, moving over to Site Value Rating, introducing the Single Transferable Vote in Multi-Member Constituencies, Co-Ownership and Co-Partnership, to name just a handful. They also had the benefit of a lively local press, and fair-minded national media, like the Guardian and the BBC used to be.
And local Liberal Associations were much more autonomous than they are now, when everything has become much more centralised, but so has everything else.
But I think the present strategy will pay dividends in the near future. The media - including here on PB - is obsessed with the fortunes of Labour and the Conservatives. That is not the reality on the ground, as this month's local elections show. If you look at the map of these, especially once the Dorset result was known - and then colour in the councils which did not have elections this year, you have Dorset, Somerset a broad band of councils across Devon, and then a broad sweep of LibDem orange across the south of the country, sweeping up into the Midlands.
This is where the Lib Dems are strong and actively campaigning. And one reason why the Conservatives are having to spend their massive war-chest on defending up to 200 of their held seats.
Thank you Mr Clipp. You reminded me of why I joined the Liberal Party back in the early sixties. I hope your optimism is justified, but locally I see little reason for optimism; down the road in Chelmsford, perhaps, but not here in mid Essex, or indeed in once LibDem Colchester.
Brexit messed with LibDem prospects both in Essex and the West Country, leaving them better positioned in a swathe of remainer Home Counties from Cambs to Oxon, Surrey, Hants and Dorset. Whether they can overcome the Brexit handicap in east and west remains to be seen,
The only hope the Tories have is that the public recoil in horror when they see how wooden and insincere Sir Keir is during the campaign. This clip from yesterday gives me some encouragement it could happen.
Have you ever met anyone in real life who is this unnatural? Reminds me of Theresa May at her most awkward
And the Union Jack in the corner of the room. We are Unionists to the core but, weirdly, none of our rooms are decorated with a Union Jack.
People in this country, correctly, lament the choice in the US being between Biden and Trump but we are really not much better.
Everything about him is so obviously scripted & phoney. He is being PR’d to within an inch of his life, but doesn’t have the warmth or charm to pull it off. I realise I am very biased here, as have a real dislike of him, but trying to be objective, surely the public will wince along with me when he’s all over our screens with that Partridge rictus grin come Election time?
The only hope the Tories have is that the public recoil in horror when they see how wooden and insincere Sir Keir is during the campaign. This clip from yesterday gives me some encouragement it could happen.
Have you ever met anyone in real life who is this unnatural? Reminds me of Theresa May at her most awkward
And the Union Jack in the corner of the room. We are Unionists to the core but, weirdly, none of our rooms are decorated with a Union Jack.
People in this country, correctly, lament the choice in the US being between Biden and Trump but we are really not much better.
Everything about him is so obviously scripted & phoney. He is being PR’d to within an inch of his life, but doesn’t have the warmth or charm to pull it off. I realise I am very biased here, as have a real dislike of him, but trying to be objective, surely the public will wince along with me when he’s all over our screens with that Partridge rictus grin come Election time?
He hasn't screwed your pension or your mortgage, though.
And as for scripting and grinning, have a look at the current incumbent. Filling ordinary cars at ordinary garages?
"It is time to abolish the two-child benefit cap There is an urgent need to reform a welfare system that does not incentivise work and punishes the poor Suella Braverman"
Comments
A claim which, if I were to be uncharitable, appears to come from a quick glance at F16.net, without noticing that many of their status is 'scr', or scrapped. e.g. https://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F-16/airframe-profile/609/
Now, if I'm wrong and there are 1,000 stored, or even near that number, fair enough. But I haven't found anything to back it up (research that led me to some fascinating corners of t'Internet as well.)
I don't mind people giving a pro-Russian, or Ukraine-sceptic viewpoint. But it would be nice if it was true, or at least sourced.
(*) but so do Hamas...
Agree with you about some of the roads round there. Have you tried the Bwlch y Croes road? Nothing particular on one side but as you come up to the top the landscape opens up dramatically.
I am really not seeing a coverup here. Nor, other than a general falling apart allegation, do I see the upside for Starmer on this one.
It's tricky because without easy verification there's no benefit in checking ID (see the uselessness of showing passports to polling staff who can't check them).
You also need to account for the fact that around 40% of the population will change their name at some point in their life, and just over 25% make regular use of multiple identities for a whole variety of reasons, most of which are entirely legitimate.
Maybe just handing out multiple ID cards would get round this (and people who need to protect their identity could have multiple disposable IDs), but it's just one aspect which could lead into a huge can of worms being opened up.
There are two ways out of such irregular warfare. Either compromise as we did in Northern Ireland or extermination as per a lot of colonial warfare.
Have you ever met anyone in real life who is this unnatural? Reminds me of Theresa May at her most awkward
https://x.com/jrc1921/status/1789044012025860377?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Thought; housing, maybe!
Israel tried the handing it back route.
What was that definition of insanity again.
Q: How do I get Angela Rayner's woes off the front pages?
A: Natalie Elphicke.
I do not bet but it would be interesting to see his odds of becoming leader
Yes, it rains properly on a handful of days a year between late November and about now, and it can look like Venice for a couple of days in the areas without good drainage. Same as snow days in the UK.
https://www.972mag.com/pogroms-west-bank-soldiers-settlers/
Blackpool South result exceeded the Opinion Polls!!! The Tories are doomed.
Unless Mordaunt goes down in Portsmouth.
Not inconceivable chance they split too, Streetites and Braver-nochers
A multipolar world
- USA, having massively exploited fracking, no longer needs to be internationalist and is resiling from world politics
- Since Americal power underpinned the post-1945 arrangement and the post 1970s adjustment, this endangers the world system and globalisation
- This allows regional powers such as Russia and China to become stronger in their local space
Demographic changes- Population pyramids worldwide are becoming top-heavy. Older people consume and produce in a different way. this puts limits on growth
- Climate changes, greater access to info and mass transportation enable larger migration waves than in the past (excepting world wars)
Zeihan linksA constituency MP first and foremost.
Sounds like the whole history of Israel post 1950.
They will depress the Tory vote by some amount however. Probably 3 or 4%.
I'll give them 'double Referendum 97' effect
It's all yours shouts Israel to Gaza. We want to live in peace how about you guys. First Gaza then who knows the West Bank perhaps.
As you have seen with the forcible removal of Israeli settlers, pictures of IDF soldiers dragging Israelis kicking and screaming from their homes, nothing is off the table.
What, you say? You get rid of the government we were dealing with and elect one dedicated to our destruction? Well in that case we're also tearing up the rule book.
The text highlights the slow disintegration of the liberal international order that has governed the global economy since World War II. While the world economy appears resilient on the surface, there are underlying fragilities that could lead to anarchy and conflict. The erosion of norms and institutions, such as the World Trade Organization and the IMF, is evident, with sanctions and subsidy wars becoming more prevalent.
The decline of the current system threatens to slow down progress made in poverty reduction, global health, and peacekeeping efforts. The potential collapse of the liberal order could lead to a state of anarchy, favoring coercion and violence over cooperation. The loss of trust and institutional frameworks for collaboration could hinder global efforts to address challenges like AI arms races and space exploration.
The return of zero-sum worldviews, such as those embodied by Donald Trump, and the fear of conflicts between major powers like the US, China, and Russia, could accelerate the breakdown of the current system. The decline of the liberal order poses a significant risk to global stability and prosperity, with potential consequences far more profound than many realize.
Ultimately, the text warns that once the current system breaks down, it is unlikely to be replaced by new rules, leading to a more chaotic and violent world order. The decline of the liberal international order threatens to undo the progress made in the past decades and could have far-reaching implications for global peace and cooperation.
What was that definition of insanity again?
The other curiousity... The normal response to a defection is to belittle the defector, release something to discredit them... but the Conservatives do seem to be going all-in on the retribution here. How much is that Elphicke has given them more material to work with, and how much has it really got under their skin? And if it's the second, why?
The common thread was that none of them could see any military or intelligence solution to the problems with the Palestinians. They all recognised that the things they did to protect Israel were not only damaging the Palestinians but the Israeli democracy itself. They saw at least as many risks to that from the Israeli right, particularly the religious right, as Hamas.
As one of them put it, they are in a position to win every battle but still lose the war. What was particularly telling was these men were not wishy washy liberal types, not at all. One admitted instructing the execution of 2 captured Palestinians who had attacked a bus. Another lamented a chance to take out all of Hamas' then leadership when there was a compromise on the size of a bomb in a built up area containing women and children. But they were all in despair.
It was obvious this had been made before October 6th but I was surprised to learn afterwards that it was made in October 2014. Another bloody, futile, hopeless decade with a result that is further from a solution than it was then. It is brilliant background and, on thread, very much a lesson from history, but not exactly cheery.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04lxjbf/storyville-the-gatekeepers
In case anyone is interested, Mr and Mrs Sandpit stayed in Hotel Riu Dubai www.riu.com, for $280 (£220) per room per night, on an all-inclusive basis for 24 hours. Unlike other PB travel correspondents, we paid for our own room! This is about as late in the year as you’d want to be in Dubai, it’s okay in the shade but hot in the sun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabian_green_bee-eater
All the signs point towards a Tory party that will be unelectable in 5 years.
IMO we will be facing a particular risk of a Trump-like non-politician populist in 5 years time.
What chance would a new MP who hasn't had time to build up a base in the parliamentary party have of getting through to the final two?
I could just about see how it might plausibly happen, but he'd depend on the right-wingers being more interested in taking each other out than in arguing against the moderate.
Street. Loser.
A good match.
He's currently 60, ever so slightly younger than Starmer. So at the election after next, he'd be 65. That's just not credible for someone to start being PM.
(Similarly, I can't see SKS doing more than 5 years or so. Win in May 2028, hand over to a successor in autumn 2029, retiring to mild gratitude from the nation.)
That Street is probably the best available candidate for centrist Conservatives just shows how grim the situation is.
That's projection based on past experience and wishful thinking.
That apart it's interesting to read the condensed Telegram output, dubious or not.
A 60-odd year old proven loser who has never been an MP - no chance.
E2A: Also, the prospect of Mickey Fabz as FLOTUK. Fucking hell.
IMO Israel is to become a true middle eastern state. Highly reactive. Controlled by one political wing that's beholden to a religious majority. It's demography means secular Judaism has been out competed by a more belligerent populist type.
People in this country, correctly, lament the choice in the US being between Biden and Trump but we are really not much better.
And local Liberal Associations were much more autonomous than they are now, when everything has become much more centralised, but so has everything else.
But I think the present strategy will pay dividends in the near future. The media - including here on PB - is obsessed with the fortunes of Labour and the Conservatives. That is not the reality on the ground, as this month's local elections show. If you look at the map of these, especially once the Dorset result was known - and then colour in the councils which did not have elections this year, you have Dorset, Somerset a broad band of councils across Devon, and then a broad sweep of LibDem orange across the south of the country, sweeping up into the Midlands.
This is where the Lib Dems are strong and actively campaigning. And one reason why the Conservatives are having to spend their massive war-chest on defending up to 200 of their held seats.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/11/victoria-nuland-state-department-diplomat-interview-00157408
..Essentially, there are two paths on the table. There is continuing this war with all of the destruction and horror and lack of clarity about how you end Hamas’ reign of terror.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again...
They would be unelectable with Truss as leader, but however much I dislike the politics of someone like Braverman, I don't see that her politics would be anathema to most of the population, particularly if that population was angry and desperate.
I'm quite confused, but potentially less confused than they are (that's a plural 'they', btw - should it be theys?)
What signs do you see that the Tories will be electable in 5 years?
I'd say the wishful thinking is far more evident in your reply than my post.
FWIW my 'wishful thinking' is that Labour are keeping their powder dry for a competent, if necessarily relatively unambitious, first term and are reelected because they are trusted and relatively uncorrupt. Then a second term might have more favourable economic and geopolitical considerations such that they can be more ambitious in tackling the rising inequality in our country.
Failing that, my wishful thinking is that the Tories return to competence and integrity far more quickly than past oppositions have done so and we get a decent one nation Tory government in five years time.
My post was almost the opposite of that wishful thinking.
I guess you'd have to ask them about it to find out what it means to them.
What I think is clear is that both sides need to be willing to take on and defeat the madmen on their own side for peace to prevail. And there is little evidence of that on either side to date.
There are 3 options: permanent occupation of a population that is impoverished and with nothing to live for other than revenge, extermination/expulsion or negotiation.
It may well be that permanent occupation is the least bad choice as far as Israel is concerned, but it is one thirsty for blood and treasure, as well as being one that corrodes Israeli support both internally and externally.
First long-distance route I did and I enjoyed it so much I’ve done a dozen similar ones since. Then just as you think you’re running out you discover the equivalents in France…
I don't think that this would have been possible if Israel had not responded to the Hamas attack of last October. In that alternative scenario Hamas would have been ascendant, and would have been emboldened to pursue further attacks on Israel.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/NL
There is an urgent need to reform a welfare system that does not incentivise work and punishes the poor
Suella Braverman"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/11/it-is-time-to-abolish-the-two-child-benefit-cap/
These are men who are most likely earning a high salary, are good looking and probably come from an above average social background and are now a real social menace. One of the things that puzzles me about modern dating is how people now talk about being 'exclusive', in other words that point in a relationship when you are no longer dating anyone else. Am I really so priggish to think this a little odd. Since so many young men complain that they can't get a date, the obvious conclusion is that we have a few elite men dragging multiple women along simultaneously. Or if not multiple women, at least one who they have no intention of committing to. In the incel language these men are known as 'chads' and I suspect there will be a few pbers who'll get very defensive on this. Perhaps thinking back to their own youth and how they enjoyed duplicitously playing the field. Having now adopted progressive values I doubt they enjoy being seen as the cause of a major social problem. Not that you can really blame the women for this. As one researcher put it recently, you can hardly blame them for choosing a Ferrari over a Ford Fiesta. Dating apps have made all this a heck of a lot worse
https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/dating-apps-reproductive-success-book-david-baker-b1138223.html
You see these women get dragged along by elite men, in some cases for years, only to be dumped and then replaced by a younger women when the time is right. Many of those older women will themselves end up as involuntarily childless. The social consequences of this can be seen in terms of decreasing rates of marriage, births and increasing singledom? Should a society be worried about a rise in the number of single young men?
You now have feminists like Louise Perry proposing truly draconian solutions such as no sex before marriage or at the very least before a man has shown some serious signs of commitment. It does seem remarkable that people are thinking along these terms but it does seem that sexual liberation hasn't worked as well for women as was hoped and a rethink is required. Amidst the depressing statistics it does afford us the opportunity to blame society's failings on well off promiscuous men. And who doesn't enjoy that.
Polling exercise: crossover between people who say “lol pronouns snowflakes” and people who revere the Royal Family.
I'm having a large plate of grilled Zamburiñas. They're small scallops, and the name means 'little puddles' in Galician
And as for scripting and grinning, have a look at the current incumbent. Filling ordinary cars at ordinary garages?