politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Here’s a funny thing. Polls that carry out fieldwork online

First! (My first ever first too!) Great day for the UK with Hamilton's win.

Mike - Are you also suggesting that the phone surveys are a more accurate estimate than the on-line polls? You seem to be. In which case we should make an automatic adjustment (-2% from each of the main parties?) to all on-line polls. It makes no difference to the lead but might make a difference to the implied number of seats.

SNP have manged to add another 5000 members in a week post conference. Up to 90,000 now.

Barnesian said:

Mike - Are you also suggesting that the phone surveys are a more accurate estimate than the on-line polls? You seem to be. In which case we should make an automatic adjustment (-2% from each of the main parties?) to all on-line polls. It makes no difference to the lead but might make a difference to the implied number of seats.

Not sure the actual result in R&S would support that suggestion.

surbiton said:

Alistair said:

SNP have manged to add another 5000 members in a week post conference. Up to 90,000 now.

What's the membership fee ? Or, is it 2 for the price of 1 ?

90000 is equivalent to 1.08 million UK wide !!!

Minimum fee is £12, "standard" fee is £36.

Plato said:

Does it let you break the encryption of VTS files? I've a T1 drive full of ripped stuff from elsewhere, but not the kit to do it myself yet - so tried using Aimer DVD Ripper - that sometimes works. Hence my thinking of just plucking it off the screen instead to get round the problem.

I've oodles of screengrabbed video sitting on my T2 DVR that I want to save to a hard format too - urgh, so annoying. I feel a whole weekend sat on the carpet fiddling about is due.

Swiss_Bob said:

Plato said:

OT Anyone on here recommend a video editing software package? I'm trying to convert all my DVDs to soft copy. So I'm thinking of buying a streaming capture product that will suck the playback from the screen instead. I can also save streamed TV or interwebbery and use when I want to/on the device that suits me.

I'm looking at this and it seems quite attractive and great value. Linky > movavi.com/suite/video-conversion.html

Any expertise on this subject most appreciated. I really resent buying DVDs and then being trapped in that format/rummaging about for the right disc when I want to skip about a boxset or bodge up my own favourite clips. I can do it with CDs easy-peasy.

I've used Audacity to fix weird Microsoft file property errors in audio files and it's fine for shareware - I prefer something more slick interface wise.

PS @DavidL‌ - I think it was you who recommended giffgaff after your son subscribed for his new mobile - it's brilliant! He's got an excellent nose for a great deal and superb customer service

You can buy very cheap devices which include the editing software, I use a Grabby Terratec USB device using S Video as the input, it's much higher quality than the RCA yellow plug, I bought a much more expensive HD card but it doesn't work :-(

I take the feed off the Sky box (S Video or RCA) so there's no encryption at that point. I also have a card in the PC that I have the satellite cabled into, you can slot a card into it, ie a Sky card (I think) that will decrypt a signal if you have the right card for the encrypted channel.

Anything you have already have recorded onto any device can be copied, as long as it's not encrypted and the box has an RCA or S Video output you're good, not forgetting the red and white RCA plugs for stereo sound. You can also record surround sound because standard Dolby surround is recorded on the stereo channels (not 5.1).

EDIT Re VTS is that an encoding format like MP3? or is it actually an encrypted format, there's a difference, lots of editing software will accept lots of different encoding formats and allow you to save it in the format you like. I think MP4 is one of the standard video encoding formats.

This is surely also due in no small measdure to the "shy syndrome".

MarqueeMark said:

Barnesian said:

Mike - Are you also suggesting that the phone surveys are a more accurate estimate than the on-line polls? You seem to be. In which case we should make an automatic adjustment (-2% from each of the main parties?) to all on-line polls. It makes no difference to the lead but might make a difference to the implied number of seats.

Not sure the actual result in R&S would support that suggestion.

The only Rochester polls were done by phone because that's the only way of getting a big enough sample. The final figures would have been pretty good if my suggestion had been adopted and they's discounted the views of non-2010 voters by 50%. Ashcroft was best.

Plato said:

Golly, just read it's the first time Merc have won since Fangio - Holy Moly.

Plato, here is a link to a list of devices that you might be interested in:

http://www.pcupgrade.co.uk/category.asp?categoryid=486

I have bought stuff here and they are reputable and helpful from my experience. Phone them and ask their advice, they're a lot cheaper than me :-)

This is similar or identical to the one I use, it's probably a newer version of the one I have, it looks the same but that doesn't mean much because I bought mine a few years ago, it's £40.

http://www.pcupgrade.co.uk/productdetails.asp?ProductID=6935&categoryid=486

Grabby - Technical data
Features

PC interface: USB 2.0
Analogue signal inputs: Composite- (RCA) and S-Video, Stereo Audio (RCA)
Video standard: PAL, NTSC, SECAM
Capture rate PAL: Up to 720x576 pixel/25 fps
Capture rate NTSC: Up to 720x480 pixel/29,9 fps
Powered via USB bus (no additional power supply needed)
Software
MAGIX Movies on DVD TerraTec Edition
System requirements
PC with 2,0 GHz Intel® or AMD CPU
Microsoft® Windows®XP SP 2 or Windows® Vista® SP1
512 RAM (1024 MB recommended)
USB 2.0 interface
sound card
800 MB of available hard drive space for program installation
Graphic card with a least 800 x 600 pixel resolution (1024 x 768 recommended)
CD/DVD drive for archiving your recordings
5 GB of available hard drive space for DVD disc burning
Scope of delivery
Grabby
Video cable
Software and driver DVD
Quick Start Guide

Poch=reckless

Spurs=labour

That is all.

MarqueeMark said:

philiph said:

However, 'You can't just point at something and tax it' is a very good line.

I won't be entirely surprised if the Chancellor re-uses it in his Autumn statement.

In the way that he pointed at pasties and tried to tax them?

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Now Frank Field has put the boot in.....

"Former welfare minister Frank Field said the [Thornberry] incident was ‘the most serious thing that has happened’ to Labour - ‘because it gives vent to what everybody’s guts are telling them about us’.

‘It’s the north London set we’ve got to control. They are a Berlin Wall trying to prevent us reaching out to our voters and like the Berlin Wall they’ve got to be demolished.
‘Ed’s trying to move us on immigration and welfare and with one blast of a tweet she wrecks that and puts us back to square one. The real problem we have is that there’s a whole group of them.’"


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2846174/Miliband-clique-millionaire-allies-Berlin-Wall-Labour-ordinary-working-class-voters.html

Also the top rated readers comment in that article states:

"Saturday's poll in the Mirror shows that 71% of its' readers feel that UKIP would be a fresh start for the UK and a poll in today's Sun shows UKIP on 28% and Labour on 25% at the General Election. Labour is a dead man walking."

Not seen anything about that poll here?

It's now blindingly obvious that an alliance of non-London Labour MPs have it in for Ed and his metropolitan clique. And why not? UKIP is of minor significance in London but could wreak havoc in the North and Midlands. Perhaps Ed needs to step up his assault on Myleene Klass. It would demonstrate he carries no flag for posh, affluent, creative types and might endear him to the Don't-Know-Much-About-Art Brigade. Sure, it could attract accusations of philistinism from the pages of the Guardian and the London Review of Books, but does anyone really care?

No sign as yet of Nate Silver (538.com) offering his thoughts on GE 2015. Hopefully he will initiate coverage over the coming weeks.

ThomasNashe said:

MarqueeMark said:

philiph said:

However, 'You can't just point at something and tax it' is a very good line.

I won't be entirely surprised if the Chancellor re-uses it in his Autumn statement.

In the way that he pointed at pasties and tried to tax them?

The same way as warmed up fish and chips are already taxed?

The "Next Minister to leave the Cabinet" markets appear to have been taken down. I very much expect Uncle Vince to have a major flounce and pack his bags in the aftermath of the Autumn Statement. After all, this be his last opportunity to attract any meaningful attention to himself before the sun finally sets on his political career.

surbiton said:

Swiss_Bob said:

TGOHF said:

@pollytoynbee: @DAaronovitch @tracey_crouch Shouldn't Hamilton fly the Swiss flag, as that's where he avoids paying UK tax?

I believe he moved to Monaco some time ago.

As usual PT is wrong.

Why did Harry congratulate him ? Why are we making heroes of tax dodgers ? Caroline of Monaco should have been there. If Grace was alive, there would have been a glittering reception when he returns "home".

Who's making him a hero but the fans? (I don't think he's hero, I think he's one of the best formula 1 drivers in the world which I admire, I don't envy him his money).

He has avoided tax by leaving the country. I don't blame him.

If you want a good tax take, make it reasonable, not punitive.

surbiton said:

Swiss_Bob said:

TGOHF said:

@pollytoynbee: @DAaronovitch @tracey_crouch Shouldn't Hamilton fly the Swiss flag, as that's where he avoids paying UK tax?

I believe he moved to Monaco some time ago.

As usual PT is wrong.

Why did Harry congratulate him ? Why are we making heroes of tax dodgers ? Caroline of Monaco should have been there. If Grace was alive, there would have been a glittering reception when he returns "home".

He is not a tax dodger. There are no fraudulent front companies. He lives abroad like Sean Connery and he does most of his work abroad. A lot of his earnings will come from foreign companies. The company he drives for is German. Most of the personal visits required of him by his sponsors will be abroad.
The team itself is based in Brackley and is a significant British business. It and he are good news for Britain.

I suppose one day you will wake up and find yourself in the real world. One where labour are not threatening to tax people at a total of over 60% of their earnings.

surbiton said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, I reminded of the scene in Valkerie where a lieutenant in the Reserve Army asks the commander whether a coup is underway and the commander replies that he is certain one is; he just isn't sure which side he is being given orders by.

The differences in the results between the methods are significant for one to be clearly systemically wrong. The question is which one.

It probably comes down to turnout and particularly with the new UKIP supporters. Panel membership is unlikely to include many politically disengaged (I know YouGov and the others poll for much more than politics but the sort of people who sign up for polling panels are likely to be the sort to be more engaged in society at most levels, including politics - in other words, they contain a disproportionately small number of non-voters). By contrast, the phone pollsters are picking up more former non-voters who now say they'll vote, and in particular, vote UKIP. There is also the related question of prompting, which antifrank covered in an excellent post on his blog the other day.

How legitimate are those findings? My inclination would be to favour those which give less rather than more weight to those who didn't vote in 2010.

"How legitimate are those findings? My inclination would be to favour those which give less rather than more weight to those who didn't vote in 2010. "

Agreed. Ironically, that would go in favour of online polls even though they come from a small class of people - the politicos.

Or, really discount the 2010 non voters by say 75%.

Incidentally, was Reckless' less than expected majority due to many non 2010 voter in the end not turning up - as expected ?

It's possible, though with a 50% turnout, that shouldn't have had too big an effect (but then again, the polls didn't massively overstate his majority so it wouldn't have taken too much to shift it). I suspect that the polls may have understated the degree of tactical voting too.

@Plato

A recommendation re dvd capture on prev thread. (MakeMKV)

philiph said:

Indigo said:

FPT:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

She was born in Great Yarmouth, the daughter of an Austrian father and Filipina mother, who gave her, she says, “an immigrant work ethic” as well as an early love of music. “My dad came over from Austria when he was seven,” she says, “and mum came in the 1960s. The mentality was: ‘We’re here to work.’ If I didn’t work a 16-hour day, I couldn’t look my aunties in the eye. You’ve got to remember many of them are cleaners. There are no silver spoons. We are a family of grafters.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/im-a-celebrity/11247621/Myleene-Klass-a-deadly-force-of-nature-pure-and-simple.html

No wonder she took up the violin, tears blinding me thinking of her climbing all those chimneys 32 hours a day.

The comments on here about Ms Klass long ago left fair comment and are becoming a complete disgrace, in the face of no evidence what so ever people appear to have decided she must be a tax dodger, I hope OGH's lawyers are on standby for that one. MG has called her "thick" any number of times, which seems doubtful given her success, plus the minor detail of her degree in astronomy.

Klass has been an amateur astronomer for most of her life,[68] having been taught the basics by her father. She was one of only a handful of celebrities, engineers and scientists who were at the UK National Space Centre control centre for the touch-down of the UK Mars probe Beagle 2 in the early morning of Christmas Day 2003. Since then she has been a keen supporter of the UK's work in the European space programme

As for all the comments which amount to allegations of parasitism, perhaps people should reflect on her charity work in Sierra Leone, Children in Need and several other children's charities.
Incidentally the comments made by here mother I completely believe, I have some experience here since I employee a number of working class filipinos, and teach filipino children every day.

And ultra dweebs think she can't buy a garage for 2 million in the same way she abysmally failed to eat a horse when she was so hungry.

However, 'You can't just point at something and tax it' is a very good line.

LOL, If looking through a telescope makes you clever then I have been very wrong. Another sychophant wittering on about lawyers, get a life you dimwit.
Why has the sainted virgin not given one of her garages to charity as they are so meaningless to her. Then you crown it all by impersonating a donkey and state that as you teach some foreign people and employ some as skivvies no doubt that she must be great. I have really been taught a lesson, I bet you were also playing a violin when you were posting that.

TGOHF said:

richardDodd said:

I was unaware that if you became ex-pat.. lived in another country and paid taxes there that you lost you right to be called British or English,Welsh or Norther Irish..Is this a new Labour Policy

Happens in Scotland - hence Wings and I didn't get a vote in the referendum.

Harry , going to Scotland once for a holiday does not make you Scottish

@malcolmg

For someone so 'intelligent' you have a real problem considering she's a minor nobody in the scheme of things.

First Myleene Klass, now Lewis Hamilton is being vilified by the British Left. Apart from Russell Brand, is there anyone from the world of sport and entertainment these people actually admire?

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

surbiton said:

Alistair said:

SNP have manged to add another 5000 members in a week post conference. Up to 90,000 now.

What's the membership fee ? Or, is it 2 for the price of 1 ?

90000 is equivalent to 1.08 million UK wide !!!

Minimum fee is £12, "standard" fee is £36.

Up another 2k to 92k during yesterday's Hydro event. They must be raking in a pretty penny in subs alone.

As "anyone but but Labour" ABL now spoilt for choice as I could now do one of the following .....

1) place 12 quid bet on Labour not getting majority
2) Buy basic membership with SNP for 12 quid

Wonder which one should pay out better for an ABL?

:-)

Swiss_Bob said:

@malcolmg

For someone so 'intelligent' you have a real problem considering she's a minor nobody in the scheme of things.

Bob , For just someone , you are a snidey nasty pass remarkable little runt.

malcolmg said:

philiph said:

malcolmg said:

philiph said:

Indigo said:

FPT:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

She was born in Great Yarmouth, the daughter of an Austrian father and Filipina mother, who gave her, she says, “an immigrant work ethic” as well as an early love of music. “My ot to remember many of them are cleaners. There are no silver spoons. We are a family of grafters.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/im-a-celebrity/11247621/Myleene-Klass-a-deadly-force-of-nature-pure-and-simple.html

No wonder she took up the violin, tears blinding me thinking of her climbing all those chimneys 32 hours a day.

As for all the comments which amount to allegations of parasitism, perhaps people should reflect on her charity work in Sierra Leone, Children in Need and several other children's charities.
Incidentally the comments made by here mother I completely believe, I have some experience here since I employee a number of working class filipinos, and teach filipino children every day.

And ultra dweebs think she can't buy a garage for 2 million in the same way she abysmally failed to eat a horse when she was so hungry.

However, 'You can't just point at something and tax it' is a very good line.

LOL, If looking through a telescope makes you clever then I have been very wrong. Another sychophant wittering on about lawyers, get a life you dimwit.
Why has the sainted virgin not given one of her garages to charity as they are so meaningless to her. Then you crown it all by impersonating a donkey and state that as you teach some foreign people and employ some as skivvies no doubt that she must be great. I have really been taught a lesson, I bet you were also playing a violin when you were posting that.

HiHo

Not that I said any of those things.

Philip , I was merely commenting on the idiot you replied to by following the thread, apologies if it appeared I was berating your good self.

No problem, happy to be berated when deserved.

Swiss bob

"Plato, here is a link to a list of devices that you might be interested in:"

This just is is one of those moments I wish I could post a shocked yellow smiley face

8-)

Indigo said:

malcolmg said:

LOL, If looking through a telescope makes you clever then I have been very wrong. Another sychophant wittering on about lawyers, get a life you dimwit.
Why has the sainted virgin not given one of her garages to charity as they are so meaningless to her. Then you crown it all by impersonating a donkey and state that as you teach some foreign people and employ some as skivvies no doubt that she must be great. I have really been taught a lesson, I bet you were also playing a violin when you were posting that.

@PBModerator: Maybe we can do with a few less personal insults, especially ones which are wrong.

Big jessie running crying to the moderator to say a big boy is calling him names and pulling his pigtails. Man up you jelly fish

malcolmg said:

Stark_Dawning said:

First Myleene Klass, now Lewis Hamilton is being vilified by the British Left. Apart from Russell Brand, is there anyone from the world of sport and entertainment these people actually admire?

another numpty who thinks the biggest insult in the world is to call someone a Leftie. Go buy a garage.

No. 'Scottish nationalist' wins that by a long chalk.

Moses_ said:

Swiss bob

"Plato, here is a link to a list of devices that you might be interested in:"

This just is is one of those moments I wish I could post a shocked yellow smiley face

8-)

On reflection I should have phrased that differently. . . .

It is quite astonishing the vitriol and hatred that right wingers spew out here , yet when answered back in any fashion they cry like big babies. What is it about bullying right wingers that makes them such jessies when on the receiving end.

Omnium said:

This story caught my eye

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30165655

I'm not against selling off state assets, but these seem to be at rather knock-down prices.

Far more troubling is that Labour plan to 'reduce the deficit' by doing so, rather than reducing national debt. Now this may seem like semantics, but it seems to me to be precisely the sort of statement that means we should be very scared of Labour's economic plans. Sane people do not sell their cars to cover their credit card interest for the month.

That's because Labour have no idea of value or money or saving or anything about money bar spending it. They are first class experts at spending other people's money.

malcolmg said:

Swiss_Bob said:

@malcolmg

For someone so 'intelligent' you have a real problem considering she's a minor nobody in the scheme of things.

Bob , For just someone , you are a snidey nasty pass remarkable little runt.

Class ;-)

What did you do in the Great Klass War, Daddy?