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Sunak’s spot of sunshine: Reform underperformed – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    Quincel said:

    You are far too kind, but I am far too egotistical to tell you to stop.
    I agree, nice header and not just because it’s one that confirms my preconceptions that Reform support is illusory.

    The good news for the government only goes so far though. They can’t double count Reform swingback. If the vote didn’t turn up at the locals then it’s not there to squeeze - the Reform squeeze is already reflected in the Tory numbers. Which is one reason they were better - a bit, though not enough - than polling.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited May 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, I fully approve of the French tax system (although it is less generous to high earners with kids than it used to be). Specifically, it means that someone earning EUR60,000 a year with a stay at home wife, and two kids, essentially pays zero tax. By comparison, a single man with no kids, will have handed over about EUR24,000 in taxes. It makes parenting dramatically more affordable than it would otherwise be.

    The issue is that it's very hard* to implement such a measure if it doesn't already exist, because it creates an enormous number of losers.

    * Actually, it is essentially impossible.
    Actually that works to about €86,000 (3 x 28,797) where the tax the family would pay would about €5,500

    Compare that to a single worker family earning £80,000 in the UK who will be paying £19,500 in income tax with NI on top.

    Figures from https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/calculation-tax-liability/rates/ if anyone cares.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    eek said:

    Actually that works to about €86,000 (3 x 28,797) where the tax the family would pay would about €5,500

    Compare that to a single worker family earning £80,000 in the UK who will be paying £19,500 in income tax with NI on top.

    Figures from https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/calculation-tax-liability/rates/ if anyone cares.
    Thank you :-)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    Like... ummm... Veritas?
    Shoulda gone with "Vino" more attractive to more UK voters.

    With "Beano" even better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850

    London is Remainer Central.
    While that's true, there are also millions of leavers, and five London Boroughs (Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon, and Sutton) all voted for exit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    Brendan Clarke-Smith MP
    @Bren4Bassetlaw
    📮🗳️ Postal voting - it’s time to scrap it.

    https://twitter.com/Bren4Bassetlaw/status/1787744981798527463
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399


    Brendan Clarke-Smith MP
    @Bren4Bassetlaw
    📮🗳️ Postal voting - it’s time to scrap it.

    https://twitter.com/Bren4Bassetlaw/status/1787744981798527463

    Well it's where the fraud is but there isn't enough time to do it before the next election.

    Afterwards hopefully Labour will implement something sensible to demonstrate how crap the current plan is.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    IanB2 said:

    Many of the ideas that have shaped societal development, whether artistic, political or philosophical, originated in Italy. Even today, discourse and the media are focused on the theoretical rather than the practical, to a degree that would frustrate Brits and infuriate Americans. Just a few days ago I was standing outside the office of the social democratic candidate for Spello, campaigning for re-election for his third term, and his five-point prospectus under the heading “together for Spello” was all entirely theoretical; there wasn’t a single item that a British or American voter would recognise as a concrete promise that something specific might come about if he is re-elected. Most of us would dismiss this as simply vacuous waffle. One assumes that Italian voters like that kind of stuff.
    Many of the Italians I know , particularly those from the Mezzogiorno, have made very similar observations to yours - but, having upped sticks and moved to London, they're probably an unrepresentative bunch!

    "Of course I want to work on something real, to build something... not just dream about it", said one friend.

    (Northern Italy is rather different, of course)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    isam said:

    Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.

    Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!

    I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    rcs1000 said:

    More than that @Leon.

    There are 14 million people between the river and the sea, and they split almost equally between Jews and Muslims.

    How do we ensure that everyone in that are - Muslim or Jew - gets to live a life without fear of being invaded and raped, their land confiscated, or to have rockets falling upon them.

    And I think it's simplistic to say "oh, we just need to defeat Hamas". The West Bank hasn't been run by Hamas. And it didn't stop Israel's slow motion invasion.

    If Israel does expel the vast majority of Muslims to Egypt, to Jordan and to Syria, then millions will become homeless, and hundreds of thousands will die.

    That won't eliminate anti-Jewish feeling, it will destabilize states like Egypt that have - by and large - tried to work with Israel. If those governments fall, they won't be replaced by pro-Israel, pro-Western ones. On the contrary, they will be full of people with burning hatred of Israel, and a feeling that "how could it be any worse".

    @Luckyguy1983 got it right. Israel's desire to avoid another holocaust is making one ever more likely.
    Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850

    I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
    Is Reclaim for people who think Reform is just too mainstream?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,079
    rcs1000 said:

    While that's true, there are also millions of leavers, and five London Boroughs (Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon, and Sutton) all voted for exit.
    And the Hall campaign had a relentless "two horse race" squeeze message with a totemic policy issue (cut ULEZ). With her target voters, it worked, no point saying otherwise.

    Whether that approach works in a General Election, where the Conservatives are the incumbent, I'm not so sure.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,999
    Donkeys said:

    If for example all Israeli state assets in the City and elsewhere in Britain were frozen or seized, as were all the assets of rich Israeli citizens such as Roman Abramovich and Alexander Mashkevitch, and Israeli diplomats were declared persona non grata and escorted to an airport within 24 hours, that would be a blow.

    It would be far more of a blow than saying they will be very naughty boys and girls if they conquer Rafah.

    I don't know about all of the "same people", but I think many of them will be aware that sanctions against Iran HAVE had an effect - and Israel has a much more internationalised economy than Iran.

    Pro-Israeli organisations have put a lot of work into opposing the BDS movement.
    They have also put a lot of work into pumping up the "our enemies are terrorists" meme - for more than 50 years.
    They haven't been wasting their resources.
    If that work goes up in smoke, they take a hit.

    I don't even particularly like Hamas. But I do respect young men and women who take up arms to defend their communities against fascist aggressors. Hamas are absolutely not a "death cult". Daesh are.
    Hamas absolutely are a death cult. They have said as much - saying that it would be worth tens of millions of Palestinians dying if it cleanses Jews from the middle east. Their entire ideology towards Israel is based in some cases on exactly the same antisemitic texts as the Nazis. The Hamas Covenant invokes the Protocols of the Elders of Zion FFS.

    "I don't even particularly like Hamas". Take a look at yourself. Have a dark night of the soul. Realise what you are supporting because you are consumed by hatred. You've become so deranged you're on the side of genocidal fascist maniacs like those you claim to want to oppose.

    Then take a breath and begin to think about how to bring about peace rather than just wanting genocide for those you don't like.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    malcolmg said:

    Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
    Wait; why do the 7 million Palestinians living between the river and the sea - essentially all of whom were born there - have any less right to be there than the Israelis?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    In the great Evergreen State of WA, candidate filing for August 2024 primary began Monday and continues through Friday.

    Yours truly was one of the first to file, for the humble office of Democratic Precinct Officer aka PCO for my somewhat less humble voting precinct. IF nobody else files for this position, will be deemed elected by default; on the other hand, if someone else does file, then race goes on the primary ballot.

    Big news so far of candidate filing statewide, is the surprise Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley for US House in WA CD04 (eastern WA interior Columbia River basin) against incumbent Republican congressman Dan Newhouse (one of the GOP who voted to impeach Trump after his attempted putsch). AND also against another Republican already endorsed by DJT.

    Note that Smiley ran for US Senate in 2022, made primary Top Two (regardless of party) to advance to general election, with lost big versus incumbent Democratic US Senator Patty Murray. However, Smiley carried CD02 by wide margin. She raised a lot of money back then, and may well be able to do so again. IF she makes it into the Top Two for US House in 2024, she has potential to be strongest challenge ever faced by Dan Newhouse in his congressional career.

    Also a Democrat in the race -ho now has some chance of making the Top Two in August thus advancing to Nov. general election, along with Newhouse, PROVIDED the two GOP challengers split the MAGA-maniac vote enough to allow the Dem to pass them both in final primary result. Which BTW is just what happened two years ago.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    edited May 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, I fully approve of the French tax system (although it is less generous to high earners with kids than it used to be). Specifically, it means that someone earning EUR60,000 a year with a stay at home wife, and two kids, essentially pays zero tax. By comparison, a single man with no kids, will have handed over about EUR24,000 in taxes. It makes parenting dramatically more affordable than it would otherwise be.

    The issue is that it's very hard* to implement such a measure if it doesn't already exist, because it creates an enormous number of losers.

    * Actually, it is essentially impossible.
    We've taken the opposite approach, of course - the bedroom tax, the two-child limit, 60 years of worrying about population growth, 40 years of building too few homes, NHS maternity being so run-down, the vaginal mesh scandal, the impossibility of renting a flat with enough room for a child, the IVF single cycle limit on the NHS, the failure of most low and mid-paying jobs to provide IVF let alone egg-freezing.

    Our entire society has been configured to reduce TFR for the past two or three generations, and that pressure has only increased.

    Even if government policy does reverse tomorrow, it'll likely take a couple of generations for the cultural assumptions to follow suit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    edited May 2024
    There's an article in today's Evening Standard defending smartphone use in social situations like restaurants.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/smartphone-ban-iphone-verona-b1156115.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Andy_JS said:

    There's an article in today's Evening Standard defending smartphone use in social situations like restaurants.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/smartphone-ban-iphone-verona-b1156115.html

    was it written by a psychopath?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
    TRUSS
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    AlsoLei said:

    We've taken the opposite approach, of course - the bedroom tax, the two-child limit, 60 years of worrying about population growth, 40 years of building too few homes, NHS maternity being so run-down, the vaginal mesh scandal, the impossibility of renting a flat with enough room for a child, the IVF single cycle limit on the NHS, the failure of most low and mid-paying jobs to provide IVF let alone egg-freezing.

    Our entire society has been configured to reduce TFR for the past two or three generations, and that pressure has only increased.

    Even if government policy does reverse tomorrow, it'll likely take a couple of generations for the cultural assumptions to follow suit.
    And don't forget the reductions in Child Benefit.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Meanwhile, over at the Reform UK Crazy Golf final.....
    https://twitter.com/InternetH0F/status/1787724123382173733?s=19
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    malcolmg said:

    Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
    Why can’t they stay where they are? Surely they’ve every right to stay in the land their people have lived in since time immemorial?
  • People on this thread are over-analysing what RefUK's USP is. It's simply, "Are you very right wing? Do you think this Government is useless and corrupt? Would you have a pint with Nigel? If you answered yes to two of those questions, vote RefUK. If three, then become a Parliamentary candidate for just a small administrative fee."
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2024

    Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
    "I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    @kaitlancollins

    After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505


    Brendan Clarke-Smith MP
    @Bren4Bassetlaw
    📮🗳️ Postal voting - it’s time to scrap it.

    https://twitter.com/Bren4Bassetlaw/status/1787744981798527463

    It overwhelmingly benefits the Tories, I'd have thought?

    We've already change from indefinite postal vote, to requiring re-application every three(?) years, and I think we now also require NINOs - though those aren't a proof of identity, plenty of people have more than one for all sorts of reasons.

    If we actually wanted to secure the process, we'd put in place a similar system to that used for passports: get someone to vouch for you.

    It'll now be up to the next government to make any changes, so expect the likes of Brendan C-S to scream about gerrymandering if they do take up his suggestion!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    The man child has posted


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:


    "At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."


    Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/07/prisoners-nordic-countries-cook-eat-forage-britain
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Donkeys said:

    "I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
    Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    The man child has posted


    He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Scott_xP said:

    @kaitlancollins

    After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.

    That's not grounds for a mistrial, that's grounds for his attorneys to make hay with the differences in what she was saying then and now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    AlsoLei said:

    It overwhelmingly benefits the Tories, I'd have thought?

    We've already change from indefinite postal vote, to requiring re-application every three(?) years, and I think we now also require NINOs - though those aren't a proof of identity, plenty of people have more than one for all sorts of reasons.

    If we actually wanted to secure the process, we'd put in place a similar system to that used for passports: get someone to vouch for you.

    It'll now be up to the next government to make any changes, so expect the likes of Brendan C-S to scream about gerrymandering if they do take up his suggestion!
    Of course it overwhelmingly benefits tories. Or did until their vote moved to Reform. Maybe that's what he means?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
    Today's testimony is hilarious. Here's a snippet:

    DANIELS: “So I took it from him and I said turn around, and I swatted him” right on the butt
    DANIELS: “and he was much more polite”
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    People on this thread are over-analysing what RefUK's USP is. It's simply, "Are you very right wing? Do you think this Government is useless and corrupt? Would you have a pint with Nigel? If you answered yes to two of those questions, vote RefUK. If three, then become a Parliamentary candidate for just a small administrative fee."

    Don't forget to claim your brut 33 talc and aftershave gift pack with your fee
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    The man child has posted


    My knowledge of US law is mostly from TV and movies, but shouldn't his team get a chance to cross examine then put his case?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:


    "At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."


    Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/07/prisoners-nordic-countries-cook-eat-forage-britain

    Teaching them how to cook for when they get out is not a small thing. Not every prisoner is a PB aficionado who can discourse learnedly on this hot sauce or that vegan recipe.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    malcolmg said:

    Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
    It's not the Palestinians building the fences, though, is it?

    I'm generally pro-Israel - but it's a bit daft to complain that no-one else wants to give a home to people who already have homes.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Scott_xP said:

    @kaitlancollins

    After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.

    So, expose her in cross examination. I don't see why this claim gives rise to a mistrial unless the judge excludes the 2016 evidence or tells the jury to ignore it.
  • He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
    There is no way that breaches the order.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    I've read the Stormy Daniels testimony.

    Does anyone have industrial strength mind bleach?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Trump told Stormy Daniels: “You remind me of my daughter, she’s blonde and smart and beautiful and people underestimate her as well”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    I've read the Stormy Daniels testimony.

    Does anyone have industrial strength mind bleach?

    Can you summarise the salacious bits first please 🙏
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2024
    megasaur said:

    Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
    I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Carnyx said:

    Teaching them how to cook for when they get out is not a small thing. Not every prisoner is a PB aficionado who can discourse learnedly on this hot sauce or that vegan recipe.
    I agree. I was being flippant.

    Uk prisons are a disgrace.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505

    I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
    Yeah, we have the Reboot, Reclaim, Reform, Rejoin, Resist, and Restore parties. Who knows what each stands for?

    And the 'Refuk' abbreviation is pretty unfortunate, too.

    Perhaps they should have called themselves the Popular Party or something like that? Or consider merging with the SDP and either stealing their name or calling the combined entity the Social Reform Party / SRP.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I agree. I was being flippant.

    Uk prisons are a disgrace.
    Oh, you didn't come over as flippant at all - just savagely ironic. And rightly so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Foxy said:

    Can you summarise the salacious bits first please 🙏
    It was missionary, unprotected, and brief.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there, and trying to think of something other than what was happening.

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1787885410523201641
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,204
    Donkeys said:

    I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
    Do you see any risk that this might end up like overthrowing the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran and then being surprised by the establishment of the Islamic Republic?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Stormy Daniels says after she had sex with Trump, he said, "Oh, it was great. Let’s get together again, honey bunch."

    She says it was hard to dress because her hands were shaking so hard. "I just left as fast as I could."

    Daniels says Trump did not ask her to keep their sexual encounter confidential.


    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1787885233259315670
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,079

    It was missionary, unprotected, and brief.
    That's no fun.

    (Which by the sounds of it is also an accurate summary of Ms Daniel's experience.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,204

    Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there, and trying to think of something other than what was happening.

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1787885410523201641

    In "Trump: The Musical", this will be where she launches into a chorus of One Of Us by Abba.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,108

    I often ….. well, sometimes …… wonder how many Palestinians could, if the possibility existed, trace their ancestry back to residents of Israel in Biblical times. And therefore would have been, then, Jews, who converted, or were converted, to Christianity or Islam.
    Whereas, as I understand it, one can be accepted as an Israeli with 25% traceable Jewish ancestry.
    Genetic studies show that both Jews and Palestinians, and other local groups like the Druze, are largely descended from the residents of Israel in Biblical times, and indeed even further back.

    Not that I think policy should be made based on where your great-great-great-great…-great-grandparents lived.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Donkeys said:

    I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
    How do you see that working?

    We - well I - accuse the EU of not having a meaningful demos. This would be that taken to a total extreme, with half the population having very different ideas to the other.

    Maybe you could see a coalition of liberal Jews and liberal Palestinians. But remind me, how has the liberal centre done in Northern Ireland?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    I now know how PBers feels when they google a phrase that I use that they've never heard before.

    This testimony truly is icky.

    I mean what kind of utter monster tells a woman he is about to have sex with that she reminds him of his daughter?
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    malcolmg said:

    Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
    Most Palestinians live outside of Palestine, either having been expelled or being the descendants of those who were expelled. And they're not all Muslims. And the plural of Palestinian is Palestinians without an apostrophe.

    Where you are right is that most Arab states have crapped on the Palestinians for decades.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Today's testimony is hilarious. Here's a snippet:

    DANIELS: “So I took it from him and I said turn around, and I swatted him” right on the butt
    DANIELS: “and he was much more polite”
    Before Christian Era = Daniel & Bathsheba
    Third Millennium = Trump & Daniels

    So history DOES rhyme.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    In "Trump: The Musical", this will be where she launches into a chorus of One Of Us by Abba.
    Lyin' Eyes, Shirley.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    I now know how PBers feels when they google a phrase that I use that they've never heard before.

    This testimony truly is icky.

    I mean what kind of utter monster tells a woman he is about to have sex with that she reminds him of his daughter?

    One who was bessie mates with Jeffrey Epstein?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    That's no fun.

    (Which by the sounds of it is also an accurate summary of Ms Daniel's experience.)
    Many of these details are not super necessary to the case of course, but since Trump denies any sexual encounter took place at all it has to be gotten into since the jury will need to weigh the credibility of the parties about what happened, and thus why the payoffs occurred.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    In "Trump: The Musical", this will be where she launches into a chorus of One Of Us by Abba.
    Surely "Does your Mother Know?"
  • OllyOlly Posts: 42

    Trump told Stormy Daniels: “You remind me of my daughter, she’s blonde and smart and beautiful and people underestimate her as well”

    Trump certainly has a thing for his daughter doesnt he.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    Donkeys said:

    I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
    This is where the international left align themselves with the Israeli right. I don't understand it myself - the most obvious path to a one state solution involves Israeli annexation of the West Bank and Gaza.

    Do Palestinians really aspire to being Arab Israelis?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    "The conferencing is over, but Justice Merchan says that, with the consent of the defense lawyers, Susan Hoffinger, the prosecutor, has stepped out to confer with Stormy Daniels about keeping her testimony within the confines set by the judge, and avoiding any “unnecessary” details."

    NY Times
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    ydoethur said:

    One who was bessie mates with Jeffrey Epstein?
    Pretty much much everyone according to Twitter....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    edited May 2024
    Foxy said:

    My knowledge of US law is mostly from TV and movies, but shouldn't his team get a chance to cross examine then put his case?
    Each witness is questioned, cross examined by the defence, then faces questions on redirect. When the prosecution has completed its case Trump can call his own witnesses to so the same thing. If he wants, since people don't have to put up a defence at all.

    I know more about US law and court procedure from the internet than I do UK law.

    I can never be sure how much of what Trump says is angry bluster and how much does he just genuinely believe mad things. Take his reaction to how the jury was selected, which 5 seconds of research shows was normal, but he claimed was outrageous on how his team had a limited number of peremptory challenges.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    kle4 said:

    Many of these details are not super necessary to the case of course, but since Trump denies any sexual encounter took place at all it has to be gotten into since the jury will need to weigh the credibility of the parties about what happened, and thus why the payoffs occurred.
    Has he considered dropping his trousers to demonstrate his penis doesn't look like a mushroom?

    If not, why not?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    rcs1000 said:

    That's not grounds for a mistrial, that's grounds for his attorneys to make hay with the differences in what she was saying then and now.
    Trump and his lawyers call everything a reason for a mistrial.

    One thing that was news to me out of the civil case he recently lost (the sexual assault one), was even after a jury verdict you can petition the judge to throw out the verdict before it even gets to appeal. He didn't do that, but if you have the funds you have a lot of opportunities to overturn things.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,108
    AlsoLei said:

    This is where the international left align themselves with the Israeli right. I don't understand it myself - the most obvious path to a one state solution involves Israeli annexation of the West Bank and Gaza.

    Do Palestinians really aspire to being Arab Israelis?
    The Israeli right want a one-state solution with no Palestinians in it. This is not what the international left want.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Taz said:

    TRUSS
    Yes, quite so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    DM_Andy said:

    Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.

    I don't think it worked out last time that was tried...
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    ydoethur said:

    Has he considered dropping his trousers to demonstrate his penis doesn't look like a mushroom?

    If not, why not?
    There's a popular strain of pailocybe cubensis called Penis Envy which looks exactly like a penis, which might confuse the issue.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,108
    DM_Andy said:

    Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.

    Israel, a nuclear armed state, isn’t going to agree with that and there’s no way of making them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
    Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.

    I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Israel, a nuclear armed state, isn’t going to agree with that and there’s no way of making them.
    Also, what masochistic nations would want to involve themselves in that any more than they had to?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    kle4 said:

    Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.

    I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
    The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    The Cohen testimony will probably be even more riotus. The man is a convicted liar, which the jury will have to bear in mind, but it's clearly not unheard of for cases to include testimony from those previously convicted of lying, but Trump's team will go bonkers.

    It's why the prosecutors have been workind hard to corroborate everything Cohen will claim of course, but it will still be super dirty and the defence apoplectic to perform for their master.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kle4 said:

    Also, what masochistic nations would want to involve themselves in that any more than they had to?
    And in any case the Western powers are not going to permit an enemy superpower to set up a military presence in the Mediterranean.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    HYUFD said:

    The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
    He didn't mean a jail sentence upon conviction, he mean jailing him for a gag order violation, and that would turn independents etc.

    I hope he's wrong about that, but he knows the GOP base and MAGA, since he used to be one - he is not some Romney-esque figure.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    HYUFD said:

    The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
    Any 'jail' sentence will just be Trump hanging out with the secret service detail, no prison guards or other prisoners would have any access to him and the whole thing would be a circus.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    DM_Andy said:

    Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.

    I'm not particularly sure I'd be keen on giving China a base in the Eastern Med.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    eek said:

    Well it's where the fraud is but there isn't enough time to do it before the next election.

    Afterwards hopefully Labour will implement something sensible to demonstrate how crap the current plan is.
    The usual government approach is to haphazardly interfere with things, adding more complexity, so some bits are better and some worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited May 2024
    kle4 said:

    He didn't mean a jail sentence upon conviction, he mean jailing him for a gag order violation, and that would turn independents etc.

    I hope he's wrong about that, but he knows the GOP base and MAGA, since he used to be one - he is not some Romney-esque figure.
    As I said this morning, even if Trump was convicted and jailed for murder the MAGA crowd would still vote for him and he would probably get 35-40% of the vote still.

    However the Independent swing voters who decide elections (and who voted for Trump or 3rd parties overall in 2016 but voted mostly for Biden in 2020) would hold their nose and re elect Biden despite being unhappy with him if Trump is convicted
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908
    Foxy said:

    I don't think it worked out last time that was tried...
    I've just finished read 'A Line in the Sand', which goes into a bit of detail around the Imperialist wrangling between Britain and France over the ME and what comes across in the book is that the British were in way over their heads in the Mandate of Palestine and really had no clue what to do about it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Any 'jail' sentence will just be Trump hanging out with the secret service detail, no prison guards or other prisoners would have any access to him and the whole thing would be a circus.
    I remain very confident he will never see a day in any kind of prison.

    Even if convicted there will be years of appeals and they won't put him inside (or whatever pseudo-jail arrangement they need to come up with), and assuming he has not been re-elected President I would not be surprised to see him physically deterioriate quickly as the really serious trials cannot be put off any longer. He'll be 78, not in great shape, under tremendous stress, and facing very serious jailtime, and even his political sway would reduce after a second loss (assuming his intended campaign of violence and state interference in that event does not succeed).

    The NY is still about crimes, but even if convicted may not result in a jail sentence, so as stressed as he will be about it he can handle it just about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Unpopular said:

    I've just finished read 'A Line in the Sand', which goes into a bit of detail around the Imperialist wrangling between Britain and France over the ME and what comes across in the book is that the British were in way over their heads in the Mandate of Palestine and really had no clue what to do about it.
    Finding out the details on things generally shows those involved were not in as masterful command of a situation as they or history may have imagined.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kle4 said:

    I remain very confident he will never see a day in any kind of prison.

    Even if convicted there will be years of appeals and they won't put him inside (or whatever pseudo-jail arrangement they need to come up with), and assuming he has not been re-elected President I would not be surprised to see him physically deterioriate quickly as the really serious trials cannot be put off any longer. He'll be 78, not in great shape, under tremendous stress, and facing very serious jailtime, and even his political sway would reduce after a second loss (assuming his intended campaign of violence and state interference in that event does not succeed).

    The NY is still about crimes, but even if convicted may not result in a jail sentence, so as stressed as he will be about it he can handle it just about.
    I suspect any convictions will disappear in the Supreme Court in any case.
    Stick him in prison and you're about a night from civil war anyway. Regardless it will be tit for tat from here. They'll go gunning for Clinton, Biden, Obama etc
    Grim times ahead for the States
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a… less than beautiful man child

    And

    Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, you didn't come over as flippant at all - just savagely ironic. And rightly so.
    I thought teaching people to cook was violently middle class?

    I recall the outrage when Delia published a book starting with how to cook an egg.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    Taz said:

    I am happy to go as nature intended when on my bike, in the summer anyway.
    A shirt and tie, a suit with turnup trousers, stout leather shoes and bicycle clips?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    I suspect any convictions will disappear in the Supreme Court in any case.
    Stick him in prison and you're about a night from civil war anyway. Regardless it will be tit for tat from here. They'll go gunning for Clinton, Biden, Obama etc
    Grim times ahead for the States
    It's just not as easy to go after Clinton, Biden, Obama, though I'm sure they will try.

    By his own legal submissions Trump's business and personal arrangements appear to be a chaotic mess even if where they are not criminal (and the organisation as a whole has been found to be guilty of fraud).

    And by Trump's own legal arguments nothing any of them did during their presidencies, even non-presidential things, should be grounds to charge them anyway. And even without that argument a lot of it really would be immune if done as president. And pretty much anything else would be out of time on statute of limitations.

    When he says it would open the door to others being charged he's presuming everyone has acted like him their whole careers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    kle4 said:

    Finding out the details on things generally shows those involved were not in as masterful command of a situation as they or history may have imagined.
    Having established a Jewish national home via the Balfour declaration we then denied Jewish refugees from the Nazis sanctuary both before and after the war. Its like we wanted for both sides to hate us.
  • OllyOlly Posts: 42
    Videos like this are getting millions of views. How the hell does Israel expect to benefit from all this.

    https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1787736553856323805
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505
    edited May 2024

    A shirt and tie, a suit with turnup trousers, stout leather shoes and bicycle clips?
    No waistcoat? No hat?

    What kind of dodgy foreigner are you?

    Next you’ll be suggesting going out of the house without waxing your moustache properly.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    @BlancheLivermore - I'm curious, do you have a map of the route you have taken?
This discussion has been closed.